Argus Crude

Crude market prices and analysis

Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Crude markets at a glance $/bl

Europe Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
North Sea Dated Mar Nsea -2.02 81.17 81.23 -0.09 u
Ice Brent mth 1 Mar 82.10 -3.81 u
Argus Brent Sour Dated -3.40 77.77 77.83 -0.09 u
WTI cif R'dam period 2 Dated +0.90 82.07 82.13 -0.09 u
Johan Sverdrup Dated -4.20 76.97 77.03 -0.09 u

North America Basis Diff Outright Change Russia Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
Nymex WTI mth 1 Feb 76.93 -3.33 u Urals fob Primorsk Dated -39.95 41.22 41.28 -0.09 u
WTI Midland Feb WTI +0.33 77.26 -3.15 u ESPO fob Feb Dubai swaps -7.50 73.35 73.45 +2.96 t
WTI Houston Feb WTI +0.62 77.55 -3.11 u
Mars Feb WTI -5.25 71.68 -3.08 u Delivered China Basis Diff Bid Ask Change
WCS Houston Feb CMA Nymex -16.50 60.66 -4.06 u Tupi May Ice Brent +0.70 85.84 86.44 +2.43 t

Mideast Gulf Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

Dubai Mar 81.75 81.85 +3.20 t
Oman Mar 82.21 82.31 +2.87 t
Murban Mar 84.15 84.25 nc 34

West Africa Basis Diff Bid Ask Change

Latin America Basis Diff Bid Ask Change Qua Iboe Dated +1.20 82.37 82.43 -0.09 u
Vasconia Apr WTI -4.35 72.42 73.42 -3.53 u Girassol Dated -1.80 79.37 79.43 -0.09 u
Castilla Apr WTI -11.65 65.12 66.12 -3.53 u Doba Dated -6.70 74.47 74.53 -0.09 u

Key benchmarks $/bl

Futures tumble on economic woes
February Nymex WTI fell by $3.33/bl to $76.93/bl, while North Sea Dated Dubai WTI
March Ice Brent fell by $3.81/bl to $82.10/bl. The March 130
Brent-March WTI spread narrowed to $4.98/bl.
120

110
Top headlines
hh 100

Kiel Canal reopens after oil spill cleaned up 90

Iran sees crude, condensate exports at 1mn b/d
80
Iraqi crude exports steady in Dec: Ministry
70
28 Jun 22 30 Aug 22 31 Oct 22 3 Jan 23
Contents
WTI vs Brent forward curve $/bl
Key spreads 2
US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent 3 ICE Brent Nymex WTI
Latin America 8 85
Canada9
80
North Sea Dated 10-13
Russia-Caspian14-15 75
Mediterranean16
West Africa 17 70
Mideast Gulf 18-19
Asia-Pacific 20-22 65
Official prices 23
Futures and forward markets 24 60
Daily netbacks 25
55
Deals done 27-29
Mar 2023 Apr 2024 May 2025 Jun 2026 Jul 2027 Jul 2028
News and announcements 30

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Available on the Argus Publications App
Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
 Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Key spreads $/bl

Spread ± Ice Brent month 1 vs Nymex WTI $/bl
Interregional Spreads 9
Transatlantic WTI = 0
Ice Brent vs Nymex WTI mth 1 +5.54 0.62 8
North Sea Dated vs WTI fob Houston +3.03 2.69
Argus Brent Sour vs ASCI +6.13 4.12 7
Qua Iboe vs WTI Houston +4.85 3.02
Atlantic Basin to Asia 6
Brent-Dubai EFS +5.96 +0.10 hh

Forties vs Murban -3.80 -3.02

5
Qua Iboe vs Kimanis -7.95 0.00
Americas to Asia
4
WTI Houston vs Kimanis -12.80 -3.02
ANS USWC vs ESPO fob +5.70 -6.51
3
Mars vs Oman -10.58 -6.42
Regional Spreads 06 Oct 22 02 Nov 22 01 Dec 22 29 Dec 22
Americas pipeline
WTI Houston vs WTI Midland +0.29 0.04
WTI Houston vs Mars +5.87 -0.03
Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) m1 $/bl
WTL Midland vs WTI Midland -1.03 -0.03 13.0
WTS vs WTI Midland -3.26 0.14
12.0
WCS Hardisty vs WCS Houston -10.80 0.75
WCS Cushing vs WCS Houston -1.00 0.00 11.0
Americas waterborne
10.0
WTI fob Houston vs Ekofisk -6.13 -2.69
WTI cif Rotterdam vs CPC cif Med +6.50 -0.20 9.0
North Sea hh
8.0
Dated vs Nsea Forward mth 2 -5.19 -3.27
7.0
Nsea forwards mth 1 vs mth 3 +0.40 1.30
Asia-Pacific 6.0
Dubai mth 1 vs mth 3 +1.52 0.31
5.0
Murban cfr China vs WTI del NE Asia -1.88 0.59
Oman cfr China vs ESPO fob +10.94 0.38 4.0
7 Jul 22 6 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 3 Jan 23
Mars vs WTI $/bl
1 Dubai month 1 vs month 3 $/bl
WTI = 0
0 6
Month 3 = 0
-1 5

-2
4
hh
-3
3
-4 hh

2
-5

-6 1
7 Jul 22 2 Sep 22 1 Nov 22 3 Jan 23
0
06 Oct 22 04 Nov 22 02 Dec 22 03 Jan 23
Announcement
Announcement
All data change announcements can be viewed online at
www.argusmedia.com/announcements. The holiday calendar showing which Argus reports are not
Alternatively, to be added to the email distribution list for published on which days is now available online
all announcements, please email: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/methodology/publishing-
[email protected]. schedule
.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 2 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)

Issue Ref: 553642

Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent

WTI regional prices and spreads $/bl Argus Sour Crude Index (ASCI™) $/bl
Month Basis Diff Price

ASCI Feb Feb WTI -5.26 71.67

Cushing: 76.93
CMA Nymex + Argus
ASCI 2 Feb -5.26 71.75
WTI diff to CMA

-0.33 LLS vs Mars $/bl

+0.62 12
11 Mars = 0
10
Midland: 77.26 9
+0.29 8
Houston: 7
77.55 hh

6
Feb delivery
5
4
3

Bakken trade for January continued with traders still manag- 2

7 Jul 22 2 Sep 22 1 Nov 22 3 Jan 23
ing December short-covering with as much as 13pc of North
Dakota’s 1.1mn b/d of crude production remaining offline
following extreme winter weather last month. In the Houston area, heavy sour crude was discussed on
Bakken traded for January delivery at January CMA either side of a $16.50/bl discount to the CMA Nymex, lower
+1.20. During the January US pipeline trade month, Bakken compared with the $15.75/bl discount trade level from the
DAPL averaged about CMA Nymex +0.95. prior session ahead of the weekend.
Crude output in the US' third-largest producing state In Cushing, Oklahoma, it was discussed on either side of
stood today at 960,000-1.01mn b/d as wells previously forced a $17.50/bl discount. In the prior session, heavy sour crude
offline are being restored, the North Dakota Pipeline Asso- in Cushing was assessed at a $16.75/bl discount. Heavy sour
ciation (NDPA) told Argus. crude in both locations fell against the CMA Nymex WTI by
Severe winter weather in mid-December knocked offline $0.75/bl.
up to 400,000 b/d, or 36pc of the state's capacity.
Wells were shut and trucks were stranded as extreme
cold, blizzards and poor road conditions gripped the indus- Assessment rationale
try. The minimum volume was met and volume-weighted average
Crude production averaged 1.12mn b/d in October, calculated according to the methodology for LLS, Poseidon,
comparable to the prior month, the state's Department of Southern Green Canyon, WTI Diff to CMA Nymex, WTI Hous-
Mineral Resources (DMR) said on 19 December. ton, WTI Midland Enterprise, WTI Midland and WTL Midland.
Activity emerged for the February trade month following The Bakken at Clearbrook assessment was left unchanged as
the holiday weekend as well. February Bakken DAPL traded no fresh trade or market discussion emerged.
at CMA Nymex +0.70/+0.75, the first trade reported for the In the absence of sufficient transaction information for Bak-
prompt-trade month, or roughly $1/bl over the WTI Formula ken Cushing, Mars, WTS, WCS Cushing and WCS Houston,
Basis. market value was assessed using intelligent judgement ac-
Bakken in Patoka, Illinois, traded at CMA Nymex +1.20 for cording to the methodology.
February, putting it around $1.45/bl over the WTI Formula
Basis. Light Sweet Guernsey traded at CMA -0.10 or about
15¢/bl over the WTI Formula Basis.
Heavy sour crude was discussed lower against the CMA
Nymex WTI at the US Midcontinent and Gulf coast.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 3 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

US Gulf Coast and Midcontinent

WTI $/bl
WTI formula WTI formula Roll to next
Timing Low High
basis price basis MTD month

WTI Cushing Feb 76.91 76.95 76.93 78.82 0.19

WTI Cushing Mar 77.10 77.14 77.12 0.15
WTI Cushing Apr 77.25 77.29 0.06
WTI Cushing May 77.31 77.35
Timing Price WTI Nymex spread
CMA Nymex Feb 77.16 -0.23
CMA Nymex Mar 77.29 -0.17
CMA Nymex Apr 77.30
CMA Nymex May 77.16
Diff Diff MTD MTD
Weighted
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High weighted
average
average average average
Argus AGS Marker Feb 77.44 77.64 77.56 79.51
Argus AGS Feb Feb WTI +0.51 +0.71 +0.63 +0.67 77.44 77.64 77.56
WTI Houston Feb Feb WTI +0.50 +0.70 +0.62 +0.66 77.43 77.63 77.55
WTI Houston Mar Mar WTI +0.70 +0.75 +0.73 +0.79 77.82 77.87 77.85
WTI Midland Feb Feb WTI +0.25 +0.35 +0.33 +0.35 77.18 77.28 77.26
WTI Midland Mar Mar WTI +0.45 +0.50 +0.48 +0.55 77.57 77.62 77.60
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.25 +0.35 +0.33 +0.35 77.18 77.28 77.26
WTI diff to CMA Nymex Feb CMA -0.18 -0.11 -0.15 -0.06
WTI postings-plus Feb Postings +3.20 +3.27 +3.23 +3.32

Midcontinent $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High
average
average average

Bakken DAPL Feb CMA Nymex +0.70 +0.75 +0.75 +0.90 77.86 77.91 77.91
Bakken Patoka Feb CMA Nymex +1.15 +1.25 +1.20 +1.15 78.31 78.41 78.36
Bakken Clearbrook Feb CMA Nymex +2.15 +2.25
Bakken Cushing Feb Feb WTI +0.50 +0.90 +0.70 +0.76 77.43 77.83 77.63
Light Sweet Guernsey Feb CMA Nymex -0.15 -0.05 -0.10 +0.35 77.01 77.11 76.55
DJ Light Feb Feb WTI -0.50 -0.25 -0.38 -0.30 76.43 76.68 77.06
White Cliffs Feb Feb WTI -0.50 -0.25 -0.38 -0.30 76.43 76.68 76.55
Niobrara Feb Feb WTI +0.90 +1.10 +1.00 +1.04 77.83 78.03 77.93
WCS Cushing Feb CMA Nymex -17.70 -17.30 -17.50 -16.78 59.46 59.86 59.66
Canadian High TAN
Feb CMA Nymex -18.85 -18.45 -18.65 -18.00 58.31 58.71 58.51
Cushing

Texas $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High
average
average average

WTL Midland Feb Feb WTI -0.75 -0.65 -0.67 -0.63 76.18 76.28 76.26
Bakken Beaumont/ CMA Nymex + Argus
Feb +1.00 +1.40 +1.20 +1.19 78.01 78.41 78.21
Nederland WTI diff to CMA
WTS Feb Feb WTI -3.45 -2.40 -2.93 -1.86 73.48 74.53 74.00
WTS Mar Mar WTI -1.65 -1.50 -1.58 -1.16 75.47 75.62 75.54
Southern Green Canyon Feb Feb WTI -5.25 -4.50 -4.69 -4.33 71.68 72.43 72.24
WCS Houston Feb CMA Nymex -16.70 -16.30 -16.50 -15.75 60.46 60.86 60.66
Canadian High TAN
Feb CMA Nymex -18.00 -17.60 -17.80 -17.06 59.16 59.56 59.36
Houston

Louisiana $/bl
Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High
average
average average

LLS Feb Feb WTI +1.45 +1.55 +1.50 +1.54 78.38 78.48 78.43
LLS Mar Mar WTI +1.15 +1.30 +1.23 +1.31 78.27 78.42 78.35
HLS Feb Feb WTI -2.30 -2.10 -2.20 -2.10 74.63 74.83 74.73
Thunder Horse Feb Feb WTI -2.45 -2.25 -2.35 -2.18 74.48 74.68 74.58
Poseidon Feb Feb WTI -6.50 -6.35 -6.39 -6.26 70.43 70.58 70.54
Mars Feb Feb WTI -5.40 -5.10 -5.25 -5.17 71.53 71.83 71.68
Mars Mar Mar WTI -5.10 -4.85 -4.98 -4.92 72.02 72.27 72.14

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 4 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Argus AGS

Midland-quality WTI at the US Gulf coast strengthened Argus AGS $/bl

against the traditional light sweet crude benchmark at Cush- Timing Low/high VWA VWA MTD

ing, Oklahoma, as outright prices fell on renewed fears over

Argus AGS Marker Feb 77.44/77.64 77.56 79.51
the health of the global economy.
Argus AGS Feb 77.44/77.64 77.56
The AGS Marker fell by $3.11/bl to a volume-weighted
average of $77.56/bl, on recent indications up to one-third Timing Basis Diff low/high VWA VWA MTD

of the global economy could be in a recession. The managing Argus AGS Feb Feb WTI +0.51/+0.71 +0.63 +0.67
director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in an
interview over the weekend that the US, Europe and China
AGS locational differentials vs Echo $/bl
have been experiencing weakening economic activity, which
in turn places pressure on commodities prices, including oil.
Meanwhile, the AGS index differential to Nymex rose by
MEH -0.01
22¢/bl to a 63¢/bl premium as export activity picked up. Moore +0.14
Road Beaumont/ +0.25
AGS liquidity was based at the Magellan East Houston Valero Nederland
Junction +0.06 EHSC +0.18
(MEH) terminal, where 11 deals totaling 54,000 b/d were
transacted at premiums to the Nymex light sweet crude fu- Speed
Junction +0.07
tures contract between 50¢/bl and 70¢/bl. WTI deals at MEH ECHO

set the WTI Houston pipeline index and are also normalized
Genoa
to Enterprise Products' Echo terminal in a separate process Junction +0.07
for inclusion in AGS. Seabrook +0.17
At least one WTI cargo loading in early February sold in Texas City +0.18
the regional waterborne market this session, changing hands
at a 65¢/bl premium to the Argus WTI Houston pipeline ECHO
index, though volume details could not be confirmed for
inclusion in the AGS volume-weighted averages.
That cargo deal would have reflected a $1.02/bl premium
to Nymex after normalization to the Echo terminal, or 39¢/bl
Corpus +0.24
over the AGS index this session. Christi

Until this week, cargo prices had been trending lower

against domestic pipeline prices amid a difficult-to-work
arbitrage to export crude from the US Gulf coast amid
unseasonably high freight rates, but tighter export volumes AGS index diff to Nymex WTI $/bl
expected in January is adding support to spot values for the 3.5
February trade month and incentivising more buyers to lift 3.0
cargoes.
2.5

2.0

1.5
hh

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5
26 Aug 22 7 Oct 22 17 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 5 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

US waterborne

Dirty freight rates $/t US Gulf coast waterborne $/bl

Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High

WTI fob USGC Prompt Feb CMA Nymex +0.91/+1.11 78.07-78.27

USGC-east coast Canada Prompt Feb WTI Houston +0.52/+0.72
70,000t 35.20 USGC-Europe Prompt Apr Ice -4.05/-3.85
70,000t 47.62 Bakken fob
Beaumont/ Prompt Feb CMA Nymex +0.96/+1.26 78.12-78.42
Nederland
Prompt Feb WTI Houston +0.57/+0.87
USGC-China
Prompt Apr Ice -4.00/-3.70
270,000t 33.33
130,000t 51.92
WTI intramonth spreads $/bl
USGC/Carib-Singapore Load window Diff
Timing Basis Diff low/high
130,000t 48.08 (dates) midpoint

1-10 M1 Feb Feb WTI Houston +0.55/+0.70 +0.63

Feb Apr Ice -4.02/-3.87 -3.95
Freight rate $ lumpsum
11-20 M1 Feb Feb WTI Houston +0.60/+0.75 +0.68
Route Daily Worldscale
Feb Apr Ice -3.97/-3.82 -3.90
USGC Aframax reverse lightering 585,000 21-28 M1 Feb Feb WTI Houston +0.60/+0.80 +0.70
Feb Apr Ice -3.97/-3.77 -3.87

US light sweet waterborne spot crude prices strengthened

amid less-than-expected available cargoes for January WTI cargoes loading 11-20 February were assessed to re-
following a recent cold snap, helping support prices for flect a 5¢/bl premium to cargoes loading in the first decade,
February-loading cargoes. based on the spread between offer levels for each decade
WTI loading 15-45 days forward was assessed at dis- that surfaced at the same time as each other. The market
counts to April Ice Brent between $4.05/bl and $3.85/bl, or was thin for late-February cargoes, which were assessed
at premiums to the secondary coastal crude benchmark WTI slightly over parity to 11-20 February cargoes to reflect a
Houston circling roughly 60-65¢/bl as early February car- shallow contango structure seen in the WTI forward curve.
goes began to trade. Waterborne WTI had been pegged at February WTI Houston changed hands in the US Gulf
premiums to the WTI Houston pipeline index between 20¢/bl coast physical pipeline market at premiums to the Nymex
and 40¢/bl last week amid muted demand, as many market light sweet crude futures contract between 50¢/bl and 70¢/
participants stepped to the sidelines of trade activity in bl, reflecting a volume-weighted average roughly $4.55/bl
between winter holidays. under April Ice Brent as prompt Nymex settled at a $5.19/bl
Values against April Ice Brent strengthened over the discount to the international basis.
course of the trade session, with offers for for cargoes load- This morning’s shipping fixture reports indicate Exxon-
ing in early February were heard at discounts to April Ice Mobil is planning to charter a Trafigura-operated Aframax
Brent between $4.10/bl and $4.30/bl, before strengthening tanker from the US Gulf coast to the eastern coast of Canada
intra-day to discounts circling $4.05/bl. A deal was later starting 9 January.
heard reported at a stronger level, reflecting a roughly 65¢/ Meanwhile, tracking data indicates the VLCC V Glory has
bl premium to the WTI Houston pipeline index at the time of departed the US Gulf coast for Singapore, where it should
the transaction. land in mid-February under chartering by ExxonMobil, while

Anticipated US crude export cargoes — 15-45 days forward

Approximate
Tanker name volume '000 Estimated grade Load window Load port Chartered destination ETA
bl

Nissos Nikouria 2,100 WTI 20 Jan tbd Europe tbd

Cyan Nova 2,100 WTI 27 Jan Corpus Christi, Texas Europe tbd
Miltiadis Junior 2,100 WTI 29 Jan tbd Asia-Pacific tbd

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 6 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

US waterborne

the Vitol-chartered VLCC Eagle Venice departed the Enbridge US west coast pipeline, 30 Dec $/bl
Ingleside Energy Center last week for South Korea, where it Basis Diff to Ice Brent Outright

is expected to arrive around 22 February. Light postings avg Mar -3.85 82.06
Separately, a cargo of Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude Heavy postings avg Mar -7.71 78.20
was reported trading this session at a $2.85/bl discount
to CMA Ice Brent for March delivery to the US west coast, US west coast waterborne $/bl
rolling the prompt trade cycle forward. ANS for February Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High
delivery to the US west coast had last sold on 14 December
CMA
ANS del Mar +1.76/+1.86 79.05-79.15
at a $3/bl discount to CMA Ice Brent. Nym
February ANS deals had ranged from $1.70/bl to $3/bl Mar CMA Ice -2.90/-2.80

under the basis over the course of that trade cycle. ANS del concurrent Mar Mar WTI +1.76/+1.86 78.88-78.98

ANS del USWC monthly volume-weighted average $/bl

Assessment rationale Basis Diff

The minimum volume was met and assessment calculated Dec Ice CMA +2.02
according to methodology for ANS. Jan Ice CMA +2.77
Feb MTD Ice CMA -2.23
Mar MTD Ice CMA -2.85

WTI fob USGC diff to Ice Brent $/bl ANS vs Ice $/bl
0.0 7.0
6.0 Ice = 0
-1.0
5.0
-2.0 4.0
-3.0 3.0
2.0
-4.0
hh hh 1.0
-5.0 0.0
-6.0 -1.0
-2.0
-7.0
-3.0
-8.0 -4.0
26 Aug 22 7 Oct 22 17 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 7 Jul 22 2 Sep 22 1 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

WTI fob USGC diff to WTI Houston $/bl ANS vs WTI $/bl
1.5 14
WTI = 0
12
1.0
10
0.5 8

hh hh
6
0.0
4
-0.5
2

-1.0 0
26 Aug 22 7 Oct 22 17 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 7 Jul 22 2 Sep 22 1 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 7 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Latin America

Mexico's state-owned Pemex’s January adjustment factors South America $/bl

(K) to its crude price formulas went into effect this session Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High

with Maya and Isthmus lower than December adjustment Colombia

factors. Vasconia Prompt Apr WTI -4.85/-3.85 72.42-73.42
The K-factors for the US Gulf coast fell by a range of 35¢- Apr Ice -9.70/-8.70

90¢/bl, with Isthmus seeing the largest decline. The grade Castilla Prompt Apr WTI -12.15/-11.15 65.12-66.12
Apr Ice -17.00/-16.00
fell to a discount of $10.75/bl, while Maya slid to a discount
Argentina
of $16.65/bl.
Escalante Prompt Apr WTI +1.15/+2.15 78.42-79.42
In the Pacific coast, Maya was priced 70¢/bl lower at a
Apr Ice -3.70/-2.70
discount of $8.90/bl. Isthmus dipped to a discount of $12.15/
Medanito Prompt Apr WTI -5.55/-4.55 71.72-72.72
bl, down by $1.90/bl from December. Apr Ice -10.40/-9.40
In Europe and the Mideast Gulf, Maya decreased by 55¢/ Ecuador
bl to a discount of $15.15/bl, while Isthmus fell by $2.30/bl Oriente Prompt Mar WTI -10.00/-9.00 67.12-68.12
to a discount of $13.40/bl. Mar Ice -14.98/-13.98
The Isthmus K-factor for January delivery to India reced- Napo Prompt Mar WTI -15.30/-14.30 61.82-62.82
ed by $3.05/bl to a discount of $17.55/bl, the lowest for the Mar Ice -20.28/-19.28
grade in all of the destined regions. Maya fell to a $16.70/bl
Mexico $/bl
discount, 80¢/bl lower than December deliveries.
Timing Basis Diff Price
January delivery barrels routed to Asia-Pacific for Maya
Maya
dipped by $1.35/bl from December to a discount of $8.25/
Excluding USWC Jan Feb Nymex -14.45 62.48
bl. Isthmus was priced $2.70/bl lower than December at a
USWC Jan Feb Nymex -6.70 70.23
discount of $4.75/bl.
Europe Jan Mar Dated Brent -14.25 66.95
Separately, Indonesian state-owned refiner Pertamina
India Jan Mar Dated Brent -15.80 65.40
circulated a tender seeking crude supplies for its March and Asia-Pacific Jan Mar Dubai -8.02 73.78
April requirements. Isthmus
Among the eligible Latin grades are Brazil’s Iracema, Excluding USWC Jan Feb Nymex -8.55 68.38
Mero, and Sururu. Guyana’s Liza and Unity Gold were also USWC Jan Feb Nymex -9.95 66.98
listed. Demand for Argentina's Canadon Seco Blend emerged Europe Jan Mar Dated Brent -12.50 68.70
in the tender. The grade is produced in Argentina's Santa India Jan Mar Dated Brent -16.65 64.55
Cruz province. Asia-Pacific Jan Mar Dubai -4.52 77.28

Delivery is expected between 1-6 March to the Balongan Olmeca

port. Offers are due on an fob of delivered basis by 4 Janu- Americas Jan Feb Nymex -5.80 71.13
Europe Jan Mar Dated Brent -6.30 74.90
ary and will remain valid until 6 January.
India Jan Mar Dated Brent -10.25 70.95
Brazil’s Lula and Guyana’s Liza crude was also listed in
the tender seeking crude supplies for delivery between 5-20 Mexico K-factors $/bl
April to the Cilacap port. Offers are due on an fob or deliv- Timing K-factor
ered basis by 5 January and will remain valid until 9 January. Maya USGC Jan -16.65
Maya USWC Jan -8.90
Maya Europe Jan -15.15
Maya India Jan -16.70
Maya Asia Jan -8.25
Isthmus USGC Jan -10.75
Isthmus USWC Jan -12.15
Isthmus Europe Jan -13.40
Isthmus India Jan -17.55
Isthmus Asia Jan -4.75
Olmeca USGC Jan -8.00
Olmeca Europe Jan -7.20
Olmeca India Jan -11.15

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 8 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Canada

Canada domestic $/bl

Diff Diff MTD
Weighted
Timing Basis Diff low Diff high weighted weighted Low High
average
average average

Syncrude (SSP) Feb CMA Nym +1.55 +2.05 +1.80 +1.80 78.71 79.21 78.96
WCS Feb CMA Nym -27.55 -27.05 -27.30 -27.83 49.61 50.11 49.86
WCS Cushing Feb CMA Nym -17.70 -17.30 -17.50 -16.78 59.46 59.86 59.66

Canada domestic $/bl Canada waterborne prices $/bl

Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High Timing Basis Diff low/high Low/High

AWB Feb CMA Nym -29.95/-29.45 47.21-47.71 Hibernia Dated North Sea +1.65/+1.85 82.85-83.05

CDB Feb CMA Nym -28.70/-28.20 48.46-48.96

Cold Lake Feb CMA Nym -27.80/-27.30 49.36-49.86

Canadian Synthetic vs LLS month 2 $/bl

Condensate Feb CMA Nym +3.25/+3.75 80.41-80.91 15

LLS month 2 = 0
MSW Feb CMA Nym -2.90/-1.45 74.26-75.71

LSB Feb CMA Nym -3.10/-2.90 74.06-74.26 10

LLB Feb CMA Nym -27.30/-25.40 49.86-51.76

5
The Canadian February trade cycle began as production of
hh

synthetic crude in Alberta fell slightly.

0
TC Energy’s 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline is now
repaired and operating at a reduced capacity after a leak
forced the pipeline offline on 7 December. The system's -5
Cushing Extension segment, a 288-mile stretch south of 28 Jun 22 29 Aug 22 28 Oct 22 3 Jan 23
Steele City, Nebraska, delivering crude to Cushing, Okla-
homa, can restart at 80pc of the line's pressure at the time
of the failure, which was running at 86pc of the maximum
operating pressure (MOP). The resulting cap will be 69pc of Suncor's 350,000 b/d Base Mine project decreased
the pipeline's MOP. production to 250,000 b/d in September from 308,000 b/d
The February trade cycle runs until 16 January for a total in the month previous. The company had said maintenance
of 10 sessions. on its Upgrader 1 would impact third-quarter output, while
Western Canadian Select (WCS) at Hardisty, Alberta, is maintenance at Upgrader 2 would span the second and third
assessed at between a $27.55/bl to $27.05/bl discount to the quarters.
February Nymex WTI CMA basis.
Synthetic crude production in Alberta's oil sands region
dropped slightly in September, according to data from the Assessment rationale
Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). In the absence of sufficient transaction information for WCS
Production of synthetic crude in Alberta fell in Septem- Cushing and WCS Houston, market value was assessed using
ber by 13,000 b/d to 1.11mn b/d, although output was up intelligent judgement according to the methodology.
from 1.05mn b/d in September 2021.
Canadian Natural Resources' (CNRL) 294,000 b/d Horizon
project increased production to 288,000 b/d in September,
up from 259,000 b/d in the previous month and the highest
level of synthetic production on record for the project.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 9 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

North Sea Dated

North Sea Dated calculation $/bl North Sea flat price

Argus derives a flat price from trade of a month-ahead
North Sea flat price
forward contract for the delivery of Brent, Forties, Oseberg,
Delivery Volume
North Sea partial trade Price Ekofisk or Troll, taking a weighted average of trade between
period bl
volume weighted average
Mar 700,000 83.22
4:29pm and 4:30pm in London. In the absence of trade, a
(VWA)
combination of the Ice Brent futures one-minute marker and
CFD value against relevant basis month
the exchange of futures for physical (EFP) market is used.
Basis Midpoint
9 Jan-13 Jan Mar -1.43 Anticipated Dated
16 Jan-20 Jan Mar -1.33 We then look at contracts for difference (CFDs), with which
23 Jan-27 Jan Mar -1.17 the market anticipates North Sea Dated in the coming weeks
30 Jan-3 Feb Mar -1.09 at differentials to the forward month. Prices falling between
6 Feb-10 Feb Mar -1.09 10 days and a full calendar month ahead are averaged.
13 Feb-17 Feb Mar -1.10
Physical differentials
CFD value for 13 Jan-3 Feb Mar -1.22
Argus assesses trade in physical cargoes of Brent, Forties,
North Sea Anticipated Dated calculation
Month Price
Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll crude, assigning differentials to North
VWA of North Sea partial trade Mar 83.22 Sea Dated to each grade for the 10-days to month-ahead range.
CFD value for 13 Jan-3 Feb Mar -1.22 Dated components
Anticipated Dated 82.00 The combination of the Anticipated Dated and the physical
Physical differentials for 13 Jan-3 Feb values gives each grade’s component of North Sea Dated for
Grade Basis Diff midpoint
each day of the assessment period. Quality premiums are
Brent Dated +1.05
deducted from Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll for benchmarking
Forties Dated -0.80
Oseberg Dated +3.50
purposes. The lowest-priced of the five components on each
Ekofisk Dated +3.10 day is used to set the price of North Sea Dated.
Troll Dated +4.00
Components of North Sea Dated $/bl
North Sea quality premiums (QP) for 13 Jan-3 Feb
Oseberg +1.90 85.00
Ekofisk +1.36
Troll +1.87
84.00
North Sea Dated calculation
Anticipated Add Diff Subtract
Price
Dated midpoint QP
83.00
Brent component of Dated 82.00 +1.05 83.05
Forties component of Dated 82.00 -0.80 81.20
Oseberg component of Dated 82.00 +3.50 +1.90 83.60 82.00
Ekofisk component of Dated 82.00 +3.10 +1.36 83.74
Troll component of Dated 82.00 +4.00 +1.87 84.13
81.00
North Sea Dated is the low-
81.20 Brent Forties Oseberg Ekofisk Troll
est component on each day

North Sea forward curve establishing Anticipated Dated $/bl Dated components-establishing North Sea Dated $/bl
85.00

83.20
84.00
83.00

82.80 83.00 Brent

CFD week Forties
82.60 MARCH
APRIL
Ose. with QP hh
82.40 82.00
MAY Eko. with QP
Troll with QP
82.20
81.00
82.00

81.80 80.00
4 Jan 22 Feb 12 Apr 31 May 12 Jan 31 Jan

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 10 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

North Sea

Mercuria and BP pulled their offers of Forties before any North Sea $/bl
buyers emerged, leaving the value for Forties unchanged Basis Diff Bid Ask ±

against North Sea Dated. Dated* Mar -2.02 81.17 81.23 -0.09
Mercuria offered Forties delivered on 17-21 January at Dated (new)** Mar -2.11 81.08 81.14 -0.16
North Sea Dated +1.45 cif Rotterdam. Alternatively, the com- Argus Brent Sour Dated -3.40 77.77 77.83 -0.09
pany was looking to place a cargo arriving on 25-29 January Brent† Dated +1.05 82.22 82.28 -0.09
at the same price. The offer, made on a one-cancels-the- Forties Dated -0.80 80.37 80.43 -0.09
other basis, translates to Dated -0.17 on fob sale terms. Oseberg Dated +3.50 84.67 84.73 -0.09
Mercuria withdrew the offer without striking a deal. Ekofisk Dated +3.10 84.27 84.33 -0.09
BP was also trying to sell Forties on fob sale terms. The Troll Dated +4.00 85.17 85.23 -0.09
firm offered a cargo loading on 22-24 January at Dated -0.20 Statfjord cif Rotterdam Dated +3.80 84.97 85.03 -0.09
fob Hound Point, unchanged from its offer in the previous Statfjord fob platform Dated +1.21 82.38 82.44 -0.09
session. BP also withdrew the offer without reaching a deal. Gullfaks cif Rotterdam Dated +5.05 86.22 86.28 -0.09
None of the window activity was confirmed. Gullfaks fob platform Dated +2.46 83.63 83.69 -0.09
Values for Forties remained unchanged against Dated as Flotta Gold Dated -4.00 77.17 77.23 -0.09
Mercuria’s and BP’s attempt to sell January cargoes were not Grane Dated -2.95 78.22 78.28 -0.09
successful. Johan Sverdrup Dated -4.20 76.97 77.03 -0.09
Loading programmes for February continued to emerge. *Argus North Sea Dated is the equivalent of Platts dated Brent
**New North Sea Dated incorporates non-North Sea grades delivered into north-
Exports of Asgard condensate will rise by 11pc in February, west Europe. A full explanation can be found on p6
†Argus Brent is the price of physical Brent calculated using Argus North Sea
to almost 70,000 b/d across three cargoes, as the last Janu- Dated plus the Dated-related market differential for Brent
ary cargo has been deferred into the next month. Loadings North Sea EFP
of light sweet Gullfaks will decline by 5pc to nearly 170,000 Basis Diff
b/d, or five cargoes of 800,000 bl and one of 750,000 bl. Mar Ice +0.10
Exports of light sweet Statfjord are set at 55,000 b/d in Feb- Apr Ice +0.14
ruary, down by a third from the previous month, as only two Ice minute markers
cargoes will load in February, compared to three in January. 1-minute ±
February programmes for some niche grades circulated. Mar 83.22 +0.01
Two 400,000 bl cargoes of heavy sour Mariner will load in Apr 83.16 +0.16
February, averaging 29,000 b/d. Mariner has been mostly May 82.93 +0.25
loading cargoes of 320,000 bl. Dated CFDs, Singapore close
Quality premiums (QP) for the North Sea's benchmark Basis Bid Ask ±
crude grades Oseberg and Troll will decline in February, 9 Jan-13 Jan Mar -1.47 -1.39 +0.16
while the Ekofisk QP will be broadly unchanged. The Oseberg 16 Jan-20 Jan Mar -1.25 -1.17 +0.23
23 Jan-27 Jan Mar -1.20 -1.12 +0.02
30 Jan-3 Feb Mar -1.09 -1.01 nc
North Sea Dated, WTI, Tapis $/bl
Dated CFDs, London close

North Sea Dated WTI Tapis 9 Jan-13 Jan Mar -1.47 -1.39 -0.22
160 16 Jan-20 Jan Mar -1.37 -1.29 -0.17
23 Jan-27 Jan Mar -1.21 -1.13 -0.12
140
30 Jan-3 Feb Mar -1.13 -1.05 -0.07
6 Feb-10 Feb Mar -1.13 -1.05 -0.06
120
13 Feb-17 Feb Mar -1.14 -1.06 -0.06
hh

Delivered northwest Europe assessments

100
Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
WTI cif Rotterdam (period 1)* Dated +1.75 82.92 82.98 -0.29
80
WTI cif Rotterdam (period 2)* Dated +0.90 82.07 82.13 -0.09

60 *Period 1 covers cargoes arriving at Rotterdam from 12 days forward to one

month ahead + two days. Period 2 covers cargoes arriving at Rotterdam from
28 Jun 22 30 Aug 22 31 Oct 22 3 Jan 23 one month ahead + three days forward to 60 days.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 11 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

North Sea

QP will decline by 54¢/bl from January to $1.43/bl, and the North Sea $/bl
Troll QP will drop by 25¢/bl to $1.65/bl. Ekofisk's QP will inch North Sea quality premiums (QP)
up by 1¢/bl to $1.37/bl. Jan Feb
QPs are calculated at 60pc of the difference between
Ekofisk 1.36 1.37
each grade and the most competitive of Brent, Forties,
Oseberg 1.97 1.43
Oseberg, Ekofisk or Troll in the second month prior to the
Troll 1.90 1.65
month of loading. They compensate sellers for settling North
Sea forward contracts using Ekofisk, Oseberg or Troll cargoes De-escalators

rather than Forties or Brent, which are usually of lower Sulphur 0.30

value. North Sea calculations

The higher the QP, the more likely a cargo of one of Basis Price
these three grades will be used to settle a forward contract. Volume-weighted average of North Sea partial traded Mar 83.22
The differential — with QP deducted — is also used to set
Ice Brent marker Mar 83.22
North Sea Dated as the lowest priced of the five benchmark
Exchange of futures for physical (EFP) Apr +0.14
grades.
North Sea basis (flat price) Mar 83.22
Forward prices were steady. The Argus March North Sea
price was $83.22/bl, unchanged from the previous trading Anticipated Dated based on 10 days-month ahead CFD strip:

session, based on 700,000 bl of trade in the minute leading Price ±

up to the timestamp. CFDs declined. The front-week 9-13 13 Jan-03 Feb 82.00 -0.09
January CFD shed 18¢/bl to March North Sea -$1.43/bl, while Argus Brent component of Dated 83.05 -0.09
the second-week 16-20 January CFD declined by 17¢/bl to Argus Forties component of Dated 81.20 -0.09
March North Sea -$1.33/bl.
Argus Oseberg component of Dated (QP applied) 83.60 -0.02

Argus Oseberg component of Dated (no QP applied) 85.50 -0.09

Argus Ekofisk component of Dated (QP applied) 83.74 -0.09

Argus Ekofisk component of Dated (no QP applied) 85.10 -0.09

Argus Troll component of Dated (QP applied) 84.13 -0.06

*the lowest component on each day of the 10-day – month-ahead assessment
period sets Dated.

Argus alternative Dated illustration

Basis Diff Price ±

Argus Dated Average Mar +0.95 84.170 -0.090

Dated to Ice Brent frontline, London close

Bid Ask ±
Ekofisk vs naphtha 65 para NWE cif $/bl Jan -1.30 -1.22 -0.15

40 Feb -0.94 -0.86 -0.16

Naphtha 65 para NWE = 0 Mar -0.72 -0.64 -0.12
35
Apr -0.41 -0.33 -0.09
30
1Qc" -0.99 -0.91 -0.15

25 2Qc" -0.07 +0.01 -0.05

2023 -0.10 -0.04 -0.04

hh
20
Ice Bwave, 30 Dec 22
15
Mar 82.84

10 Apr 82.81

May 82.61
5
7 Jul 22 5 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 Saudi formula base 81.47

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 12 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

ARGUS BRENT SOUR

Argus Brent Sour calculation $/bl Components of Argus Brent Sour

84.00
Anticipated Dated 82.00
Argus Brent Sour calculation 83.00

Anticipated Add Diff 82.00

Components of Argus Brent Sour Price
Dated midpoint

Brent 82.00 +1.05 83.05 81.00 Brent

Forties
Forties 82.00 -0.80 81.20 Grane
80.00
Grane 82.00 -2.95 79.05 Flotta Gold
Flotta Gold 82.00 -4.00 78.00 79.00 JS

Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad 82.00 -4.20 77.80

78.00
Argus Brent Sour is the lowest component on each day of
77.80
the assessment period
77.00
12 Jan 31 Jan

Alternative North Sea Dated illustrations

New North Sea Dated calculation $/bl Components establishing New North Sea Dated
84.00
Anticipated Dated 82.00
Freight adjustment
83.50
10-day average UK-UK continent rate 20 Dec-2 Jan na
10-day average UK-UK continent rate 21 Dec-3 Jan 1.92
83.00
North Sea quality adjustments (QA) for 13 Jan-3 Feb
Oseberg +2.71 Brent
82.50 Forties
Ekofisk +1.82
Troll +2.63 Ose. with QP
82.00 hh
New North Sea Dated calculation
Eko. with QP
Troll with QP
Subtract 81.50
Components of New North Anticipated Add Diff
QA and Price
WTI
Sea Dated Dated midpoint
freight
81.00
Brent 82.00 +1.05 83.05
Forties 82.00 -0.80 81.20
80.50
Oseberg 82.00 +3.50 +2.71 82.79
12 Jan 31 Jan
Ekofisk 82.00 +3.10 +1.82 83.28
Troll 82.00 +4.00 +2.63 83.37
WTI 82.00 +1.75 +2.08 81.67
North Sea Dated is the lowest component on each day of the
81.11
assessment period

North Sea Dated + JS calculation $/bl Dated illustrations vs North Sea Dated

Anticipated Dated 82.00 New North Sea Dated North Sea Dated + JS
2.00
North Sea quality adjustments (QA) for 13 Jan-3 Feb 1.50
Oseberg +1.90 1.00
Ekofisk +1.36 0.50
0.00
Troll +1.87 -0.50
Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad -5.29 -1.00
-1.50
North Sea Dated + JS calculation -2.00
Subtract -2.50
Components of North Sea Anticipated Add Diff -3.00
QA and Price
Dated + JS Dated midpoint -3.50
freight -4.00
Brent 82.00 +1.05 83.05 -4.50
Forties 82.00 -0.80 81.20
-5.00
Oseberg 82.00 +3.50 +1.90 83.60 12 Jul 23 Aug 6 Oct 17 Nov 3 Jan
Ekofisk 82.00 +3.10 +1.36 83.74
Troll 82.00 +4.00 +1.87 84.13
Johan Sverdrup fob Mongstad 82.00 -4.20 -5.29 83.09
North Sea Dated is the lowest component on each day of the
81.20
assessment period

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 13 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Russia-Caspian

Caspian crude prices were expected to gain ground this Russia-Caspian $/bl
week on the back of a surge in buying following the holiday Basis Diff Bid Ask ±

period. fob Russia

Traders said that Azeri crude loading from the Turkish Urals fob Primorsk Dated -39.95 41.22 41.28 -0.09
port of Ceyhan was changing hands at around North Sea Urals fob Ust-Luga Dated -39.95 41.22 41.28 -0.09
Dated +6.50 cif Augusta, broadly in line with the latest price Urals Aframax fob Novo Dated -37.25 43.92 43.98 -0.09
discussions. But a surge in buying following the holiday pe- Urals Suezmax fob Novo Dated -37.45 43.72 43.78 -0.09
riod was this week expected to result in wider premiums. Siberian Light fob Novo Dated -17.50 63.67 63.73 -0.09
CPC Blend was also reportedly experiencing an uptick in Delivered
demand. Traders said that the vast majority of cargoes load- Kebco cif Augusta Dated -10.50 70.67 70.73 -0.09
ing next month would be placed by the time the February CPC Blend cif Augusta Dated -4.75 76.42 76.48 -0.09
export programme is circulated, most likely mid-way through BTC Blend cif Augusta Dated +6.50 87.67 87.73 -0.09
next week. Volumes were expected to be scheduled broadly Azeri Light cif Augusta Dated +6.30 87.47 87.53 -0.09
steady on the month at around 1.5mn b/d, with traders Netforwards
indicating that producers of CPC Blend would be keen to Urals NWE cif Rotterdam Dated -36.85 44.32 44.38 -1.14
maintain exports levels at around that level to make up for Urals Med Aframax cif Dated -29.72 51.45 51.51 +1.03
export disruptions last year. Urals Med Suezmax cif Dated -32.55 48.62 48.68 +1.04
The most recent deals for CPC Blend were struck at
Siberian Light cif Augusta Dated -13.50 67.67 67.73 -0.09
around Dated -5.00/-4.50 on a cif Augusta basis, according
Netbacks
to traders. Several shipments reportedly changed hands on 3
Urals cif Black Sea Dated -35.27 45.90 45.96 -0.01
January but details were slow to surface. Traders indicated
CPC fob terminal Dated -11.03 70.14 70.20 -1.30
that discounts would narrow further this week, primarily as
BTC fob Ceyhan Dated +4.63 85.80 85.86 -0.06
a result of increased buying from Asia-Pacific.
Azeri Light fob Supsa Dated +0.17 81.34 81.40 -1.23
Vortexa data indicated that at least two cargoes of the
Retrospective netbacks
light sour crude have so far been booked to head east-of-
Urals fob Primorsk Dated -37.68 43.49 43.55 -1.43
Suez this month, both for South Korea. US-based Chevron
Urals fob Ust-Luga Dated -37.68 43.49 43.55 -1.43
has booked the Boubilina to load a 1mn bl shipment of CPC
Urals fob Novo (Aframax) Dated -38.49 42.68 42.74 -3.58
Blend from the grade’s namesake terminal on Russia’s Black
CPC Blend fob Dated -15.94 65.23 65.29 -0.41
Sea coast on 16 January for delivery to the key Asia-Pacific
Turkish straits demurrage
buyer, with another same-sized cargo due to depart on 23
Delay days 22.00
January on behalf of trading giant Vitol. South Korea favours
Aframax demurrage rate $/d 85,000
Suezmax demurrage rate 100,000

Bonny Light vs Azeri Light $/bl CPC Blend vs Saharan Blend $/bl
6 0.0
Azeri Light = 0 -1.0 Saharan Blend = 0
4
-2.0
2 -3.0
0 -4.0
-5.0
-2
hh hh -6.0
-4 -7.0

-6 -8.0
-9.0
-8 -10.0
-10 -11.0
7 Jul 22 5 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 7 Jul 22 5 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 14 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Russia-Caspian

CPC Blend for use in its broad petrochemicals sector, and Druzhba pipeline — Urals (monthly prices) $/bl
is one of the biggest buyers of the light sour crude in Asia Basis Diff low Diff high Low High

alongside China and India.

Slovakia
No deals, offers or bids surfaced in the afternoon trading
window. Nov Monthly avg of Dated -28.12 -27.62 62.98 63.48

Oct Monthly avg of Dated -26.55 -26.05 66.56 67.06

Sep Monthly avg of Dated -24.95 -24.45 64.81 65.31

Hungary

Nov Monthly avg of Dated -28.12 -27.62 62.98 63.48

Oct Monthly avg of Dated -26.55 -26.05 66.56 67.06

Sep Monthly avg of Dated -24.95 -24.45 64.81 65.31

Poland

Nov Monthly avg of Dated -26.89 -26.39 64.21 64.71

Oct Monthly avg of Dated -21.03 -20.53 72.08 72.58

Sep Monthly avg of Dated -22.37 -21.87 67.39 67.89

Urals fob Novo vs North Sea Dated $/bl
Germany
-15.0
North Sea Dated = 0 Nov Monthly avg of Dated -27.00 -26.29 64.10 64.81
-20.0
Oct Monthly avg of Dated -25.00 -20.43 68.11 72.68

-25.0 Sep Monthly avg of Dated -24.00 -21.77 65.76 67.99

-30.0
hh

-35.0 North Sea Dated month average $/bl

-40.0 Nov 91.097

Oct 93.109
-45.0
Sep 89.395
7 Jul 22 5 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

BTC Blend vs French diesel $/bl Urals fob Novo vs Mars $/bl
0 0
French diesel = 0 Mars = 0
-10 -5

-20 -10

-30 -15

hh
-40 hh
-20

-50 -25

-60 -30

-70 -35
7 Jul 22 5 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 1 Jul 22 31 Aug 22 31 Oct 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 15 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Mediterranean

Algeria's state-run Sonatrach cut its official January formula Mediterranean $/bl
price for Saharan Blend to North Sea Dated +0.90, down Basis Diff Bid Ask ±

from December's Dated +2.65, according to traders. Saharan Blend Dated +2.50 83.67 83.73 -0.09
Some had anticipated that Sonatrach would set the Janu- Zarzaitine Dated +2.40 83.57 83.63 -0.09
ary price below Dated +2.00. Es Sider Dated +0.25 81.42 81.48 -0.09

Argus' spot assessments for Saharan Blend averaged Kirkuk Dated -18.75 62.42 62.48 -0.09
Basrah Medium fob (Med) Dated +0.55 71.82 71.88 -0.09
Dated +0.16 between 1-23 December, when the majority of
Basrah Heavy fob (Med) Dated -0.25 66.17 66.23 -0.09
January-loading cargoes would have traded. This compares
Iranian Light fob Sidi Kerir Dated -7.12 74.05 74.11 -0.09
with Dated +0.83 in November. Sonatrach typically circulates Iranian Heavy fob Sidi Kerir Dated -9.92 71.25 71.31 -0.09
its retroactive official formula price after clearing out most Suez Blend Dated -7.25 73.92 73.98 -0.09
of its own supplies. Spot activity has been thin, with the
majority of January-loading cargoes already placed.
Elsewhere, Indonesian state-owned refiner Pertamina Official formula prices $/bl
circulated a buy tender for its March and April require- Basis

ments. For March, the refiner sought a 950,000 bl cargo for Algeria Nov Dec Jan
27 January — 3 February loading, for which Libyan Esharara Saharan Blend Dated 2.5 2.65 0.9
was listed as eligible. The firm was also seeking a 600,000 bl Syria Aug Sep Oct
parcel for 1-6 March arrival at Balongan, with Libyan Amna Syrian Light Dated na na na
and Egyptian Qarun accepted, and a same-sized cargo for Souedie Dated na na na
4-8 March delivery to Balikpapan, for which Saharan Blend Libya Oct Nov Dec
and Libyan Zueitina were listed as eligible. A variety of Al-Jurf Urals Med na na na
competing crudes from other regions, primarily West Africa, Amna Dated 1.65 1.35 -1.5
were also accepted. The tender will close on 4 January, with Bouri Urals Med na na na
offers valid until 6 January. Brega Dated 0.7 0.4 -2.45
For April, Pertamina was also seeking a 300,000-360,000 Bu Atiffel Dated 0.3 0.1 -2.9

bl cargo for 5-20 April arrival at Cilacap, with Iraqi Basrah Es Sider Dated 0.8 0.15 -2.85

Light and Kirkuk blend listed as acceptable options alongside Esharara Dated 1.8 1.3 -1.7

a wide array of crudes from other regions. The tender will Mellitah Dated 0.1 0 -2.85

close on 5 January, with offers valid until 9 January. Mesla Dated 0.15 -0.35 -3.05

The majority of Kirkuk blend supplies are sold by the Mesla ex Ras Lanuf Dated na na na

semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government(KRG) and Sarir Dated -1.7 -2.2 -4.9

the crude is rarely listed in tender requirements posted by Sirtica Dated 0.8 0.6 -2.25

Asia-Pacific refiners. KRG Kirkuk has not sailed for Indonesia Zueitina Dated 0.7 0.6 -2.4

since Argus tracking began in 2014.

Elsewhere, Iraqi crude exports marketed by state-
owned Somo were broadly flat for the month of December Kirkuk vs Urals fob Novo $/bl
at 3.33mn b/d, according to preliminary figures from the 25.0
country's oil ministry. Loadings from the southern port of
Basrah averaged 3.25mn b/d, compared with 3.24mn b/d in Urals Med = 0
20.0
November, and exports of Somo-marketed Kirkuk Blend from
the Turkish port of Ceyhan decreased by 9pc to 72,000 b/d.
The ministry figures do not account for Kirkuk Blend supplies 15.0
sold by KRG. In December, Somo's average sale price fell by hh

around 11pc to $73.64/bl, and export revenue fell by nearly

8pc on the month to $7.61bn. 10.0
The Opec basket price decreased by $10.05/bl — or
nearly 11pc — on the month to $79.68/bl in December.
5.0
6 Oct 22 3 Nov 22 1 Dec 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 16 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

West Africa
West Africa $/bl
Indonesia’s state-owned Pertamina issued two new purchase
Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
tenders for its March and April requirements, and more Feb-
Agbami Dated -3.00 78.17 78.23 -0.09
ruary loading programmes emerged. Amenam Dated -2.60 78.57 78.63 -0.09
Pertamina was seeking 950,000 bl cargoes loading Bonga Dated +1.75 82.92 82.98 -0.09
between 27 January and 3 February for its March require- Bonny Light Dated -0.20 80.97 81.03 -0.09
Brass River Dated -0.70 80.47 80.53 -0.09
ments, as well as 600,000 bl cargoes delivered to Balongan CJ Blend Dated +1.70 82.87 82.93 -0.09
on 1-6 March or to Balikpapan on 4-8 March. Offers must be EA Blend Dated +1.80 82.97 83.03 -0.09
submitted by 4 January and will be kept valid until 6 Janu- Egina Dated +2.75 83.92 83.98 -0.09
Erha Dated +1.80 82.97 83.03 -0.09
ary. Escravos Dated +1.60 82.77 82.83 -0.09
Separately, Pertamina was also seeking 5-20 April deliv- Forcados Dated +1.30 82.47 82.53 -0.09
eries of 300,000-360,000 bl cargoes to Cilacap, and was con- Qua Iboe Dated +1.20 82.37 82.43 -0.09
Usan Dated -3.75 77.42 77.48 -0.09
sidering offers made on a fob basis with consistent loading Cabinda Dated -2.05 79.12 79.18 -0.09
dates. This second tender closes on 5 January, with offers Dalia Dated -2.50 78.67 78.73 -0.09
Girassol Dated -1.80 79.37 79.43 -0.09
due to be kept valid until 9 January.
Hungo Dated -5.00 76.17 76.23 -0.09
Traders indicated that a 400,000 bl cargo of Nigeria’s Kissanje Dated -2.60 78.57 78.63 -0.09
niche grade Abo will load on 26-27 February on behalf of Mostarda Dated -6.00 75.17 75.23 -0.09
Nemba Dated -4.30 76.87 76.93 -0.09
state-owned NNPC. Loading schedules for light sweet grades
Zafiro Dated -0.10 81.07 81.13 -0.09
Bonny Light and Brass River had not surfaced yet. Jubilee Dated -1.60 79.57 79.63 -0.09
Meanwhile, more details emerged on Angolan state-run Doba Dated -6.70 74.47 74.53 -0.09
Djeno Dated -6.65 74.52 74.58 -0.09
Sonangol’s latest spot offer, which was circulated on 28 De-
cember. The firm offered a 650,000 bl cargo of Saxi loading Nigerian official formula prices $/bl
Basis Nov Dec Jan
on 17-18 February at Dated -2.00, according to market par-
ticipants. No deals were heard struck around those levels. Abo Dated +2.08 -0.44 -0.26
Agbami Dated -0.03 -0.94 -2.59
Trading firm Vitol offered a 300,000 bl cargo of Nigeria's Ajapa Dated +4.01 +2.67 +1.10
Brass River arriving on 12-20 January aboard the Suezmax Aje Dated +2.14 +0.71 -0.50
Akpo Dated -0.68 -1.24 -3.19
Neptune Moon in the afternoon window. The firm was seek-
Amenam Dated +2.49 +0.66 -1.63
ing buyers at North Sea Dated +6.35 cif Augusta, before Antan Dated -0.16 -2.78 -2.00
lowering its indication to Dated +6.20, without enticing a Asaramatoru Dated +4.13 +1.91 +1.09
Bonga Dated +4.03 +2.46 +1.18
buyer. Traders equated the offer to a range between Dated
Bonny Light Dated +1.74 +0.31 -0.50
+2.55 and Dated +3.25 on fob sale terms. Brass River Dated +1.63 +0.11 -1.15
Elsewhere, Gabon's crude exports have been scheduled CJ Blend Dated +3.12 +2.12 +1.27
EA Dated +3.49 +2.22 +1.37
at 154,000 b/d, down from January’s 187,000 b/d. The Feb-
Ebok Dated -2.10 -2.28 -3.46
ruary plan comprises 50,000 b/d of the country's Rabi Blend Egina Dated +5.95 +3.97 +1.90
across two cargoes, which are scheduled to load on 2-3 and Eremor Dated -24.01 -22.43 -21.37
Erha Dated +3.97 +2.54 +1.00
20-21 February on behalf of Gabon’s state-owned GOC and Escravos Dated +4.01 +2.67 +1.10
Shell, respectively. Three 450,000 bl cargoes of the niche Forcados Dated +2.51 +1.73 +0.92
Mandji grade will load in February, for an average of 48,000 Ima Dated -2.30 -3.35 -3.34
Jones Creek Dated +2.51 +1.68 +0.97
b/d, up from 44,000 b/d in January. Obe Dated -0.02 -1.74 -1.77
But the February programme shows only one 950,000 bl Okono Dated +4.76 +2.66 +1.66
cargo, or 34,000 b/d, of Rabi Light, a 72pc reduction from Okoro Dated +10.92 +10.68 +6.84
Okwori Dated +7.12 +4.58 +3.27
January’s multi-month high of 123,000 b/d. One 600,000 bl Okwuibome formula Dated +2.90 +1.62 +0.55
cargo of light sweet Etame will load on 26-27 February on Otakikpo Dated +2.14 +0.71 -0.50
behalf of US-based Vaalco, after the grade was absent from Oyo Dated +8.58 +5.58 +4.86
Pennington Dated +5.05 +2.54 +2.30
the January loading programme. Qua Iboe Dated +2.90 +1.62 +0.55
Ukpokiti Dated +4.48 +2.39 +1.48
Usan Dated -1.58 -2.42 -3.36
Yoho Dated +2.80 +1.57 +0.50
Zafiro* Dated +0.40 +0.77 -0.08
Premium for advanced pricing Dated +0.07 +0.07 +0.07
Premium for deferred pricing Dated +0.07 +0.07 +0.07
*Equatorial Guinea, priced by NNPC

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 17 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Mideast Gulf

The market awaited Saudi Arabia’s official February for- Mideast Gulf $/bl
Month Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
mula prices, with refiners expecting state-controlled Saudi
Aramco to cut its prices by $1-2/bl from January. Dubai Mar 81.75 81.85 +3.20
Oman Mar Dubai swaps +1.98 82.21 82.31 +2.87
The March Brent-Dubai EFS, or the premium of the March
Murban Mar Dubai swaps +3.92 84.15 84.25 nc
Ice Brent to March Dubai swaps, was $5.96/bl, compared Das Mar Dubai swaps +2.72 82.95 83.05 nc
with an average of $5.43/bl in December. Upper Zakum Mar Dubai swaps +1.78 82.01 82.11 nc
Umm Lulu Mar Dubai swaps +3.92 84.15 84.25 nc
The Singapore marker for the front-month March Murban
Qatar Land Mar QP 0.00 85.82 85.92 nc
futures contract on IFAD traded at the equivalent of a $3.92/ Qatar Marine Mar QP 0.00 83.07 83.17 nc
bl premium to March Dubai swaps. In December, the pre- Qatar Al-Shaheen Mar Dubai swaps +1.20 81.43 81.53 nc
Banoco Arab Medium Mar Aramco 0.00 83.32 83.42 nc
mium of front-month IFAD Murban to Dubai swaps averaged
Basrah Medium fob
around $4.25/bl. Feb Somo +1.00 81.77 81.87 nc
Iraq†
Front-month March Oman futures on the DME traded at a Basrah Heavy fob Iraq† Feb Somo 0.00 76.22 76.32 nc
DFC fob Qatar Mar Dubai swaps 0.00 80.23 80.33 nc
$1.98/bl premium to March Dubai swaps, compared with an
LSC fob Qatar Mar Dubai swaps -0.40 79.83 79.93 nc
average premium of $1.52/bl in December. †Asia-Pacific destination-restricted cargoes

RGV differentials to Murban $/bl

  Diff ±
Das -0.30 nc
Urals vs Oman $/bl Upper Zakum -2.16 nc
Umm Lulu -0.79 nc
-10 Qatar Land -0.95 nc
Oman = 0 Qatar Marine -2.27 nc
-15
Differentials to Murban, 4:30pm Singapore $/bl
-20   Month Basis Diff ±
Mideast Gulf
-25 Dubai Mar Mar Murban -2.40 nc
hh
Oman Mar Mar Murban -1.94 nc
-30 Qatar Al-Shaheen Mar Mar Murban -2.72 nc
Banoco Arab Medium Mar Mar Murban -0.83 nc
Basrah Medium fob Iraq Feb Mar Murban -2.38 nc
-35 Basrah Heavy fob Iraq Feb Mar Murban -7.93 nc
DFC fob Qatar Mar Mar Murban -3.92 nc
-40 LSC fob Qatar Mar Mar Murban -4.32 nc
4 Jul 22 2 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 Russia Asia-Pacific
ESPO Blend Mar Murban -10.80 +0.03
Sokol Mar Murban -13.92 -0.59
Sakhalin Blend Mar Murban -13.92 -0.59
Substitute North Sea Dated Mar Murban +0.12 +0.11

Oman vs Dubai $/bl

2.0
Dubai = 0

1.0

0.0
hh

-1.0

-2.0
7 Jul 22 6 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 18 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Mideast Gulf

The Dubai backwardation, or the premium of front-month Mideast Gulf $/bl

March to third-month May Dubai prices, was at $1.52/bl, Bid Ask ±

wider than December’s backwardation of $1.17/bl. Dubai forward, 4:30pm Singapore

March Dubai partials were heard to have traded at Mar 81.75 81.85 +3.20
Apr 80.85 80.95 +2.96
$82.06/bl. May 80.23 80.33 +2.69
Jun 79.69 79.79 nc
Dubai forward, 4:30pm London
Mar 78.63 78.71 +0.37
Apr 77.72 77.82 +0.13
May 77.10 77.20 -0.14
Jun 76.56 76.66 nc
Dubai intermonths, 4:30pm Singapore
Mar/Apr 0.90 +0.35
Apr/May 0.62 -0.04
May/Jun 0.54 +0.19
Dubai swaps, 4:30pm Singapore
Feb 80.85 80.95 +2.96
Mar 80.23 80.33 +2.69
Apr 79.69 79.79 +2.49
May 79.09 79.19 nc
Dubai swaps months are pricing months
Dubai EFS, 4:30pm Singapore
Mar +5.96 +0.10
Apr +6.14 +0.09
Cabinda vs Dubai month 1 $/bl May +6.30 +0.09
Ice Brent, 4:30pm Singapore
20.0
Mar 86.24 +2.79
Dubai month 1 = 0 Apr 85.88 +2.58
15.0 May 85.44 +2.43
Jun 84.91 +2.30
Oman forward, 4:30pm Singapore
10.0 Dubai
Diff Bid Ask ±
swaps
hh

5.0 Mar +1.98 Mar 82.21 82.31 +2.87

Apr +2.00 Apr 81.69 81.79 +2.75
May +2.30 May 81.39 81.49 nc
0.0

-5.0
4 Jul 22 2 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 Methodology $/bl

Dubai forward month calculator

Dubai vs North Sea Dated, MEG freight $/bl Ice Brent month 1 Mar 86.24
Dubai EFS month 1 Mar - +5.96
Mideast Gulf-UKC 260,000t Dubai swap month 2* Mar = 80.28
4 Dubai forward month 3* May = 80.28
Dubai intermonth Apr/May + 0.62
2
Dubai forward month 2 Apr = 80.90

0 Dubai intermonth Mar/Apr + 0.90

Dubai forward month 1 Mar = 81.80
-2 *Dubai swap month 2 = Dubai forward month 3
Oman forward month calculator
-4 Dubai- Diff to Dubai Oman
MOG
Oman Dubai swaps forward
formula
-6 North Sea Dated = 0 spread swaps outright midpoint
Mar 0.00 +1.98 +1.98 80.28 82.26
-8 Apr 0.00 +2.00 +2.00 79.74 81.74
Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan 23 May 0.00 +2.30 +2.30 79.14 81.44

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 19 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Asia-Pacific

Malaysia’s state-owned Petronas set its retroactive Malaysian Asia-Pacific $/bl

Crude Oil (MCO) official selling price (OSP) for December- Basis Diff Bid Ask ±

loading cargoes at its lowest in almost a year. Minas ICP +1.00 83.99 84.09 +2.79
The December OSP was priced at $93.87/bl, down by $11/ Duri ICP +1.00 80.49 80.59 +2.79
bl from November and the lowest since the January 2022 Cinta ICP +0.30 82.99 83.09 +2.79
OSP. The MCO basket comprises Labuan, Miri Light, Kikeh, Widuri ICP +0.30 83.19 83.29 +2.79
and Kimanis (LMKK) crudes. The MCO OSP is calculated by Senipah ICP +2.00 81.99 82.09 +2.79

adding an alpha to the monthly average of North Sea Dated Attaka ICP +1.50 86.99 87.09 +2.79

quotes for the month of loading. Ardjuna ICP 0.00 81.24 81.34 +2.79

The December Tapis OSP was set at $88/bl while the Belida ICP +1.00 82.94 83.04 +2.79

December Bintulu OSP was priced at $88.64/bl. The Tapis Sutu Den Dated* +6.15 87.30 87.40 -0.09
Bach Ho Dated* +6.15 87.30 87.40 -0.09
and Bintulu OSPs, as well as those of Dulang and Cendor, are
Tapis Dated* +7.45 88.60 88.70 -0.09
calculated by implementing a fixed spread, or beta, to the
Kikeh Dated* +8.95 90.10 90.20 -0.09
MCO OSP.
Kimanis Dated* +9.15 90.30 90.40 -0.09
Indonesia also slashed its retroactive December Indone-
Labuan Dated* +9.85 91.00 91.10 -0.09
sian Crude Prices (ICPs), with the Minas ICP set at the lowest
Miri Light Dated* +7.90 89.05 89.15 -0.09
level since its December 2021 price. The December ICP for
Kutubu Light Dated* -6.00 75.15 75.25 -0.09
Minas was $78.74/bl, down by $12.10/bl from November. The
Cossack Dated* -1.50 79.65 79.75 +5.11
December ICP for light sweet Belida crude fell by $10.24/
North West Shelf Dated* -10.30 70.85 70.95 -0.09
bl to $78.91/bl while the December Duri ICP was reduced by Ichthys Dated* -2.75 78.40 78.50 -0.09
$11.15/bl to $85.13/bl. The December Senipah condensate Vincent Dated* +7.00 88.15 88.25 -0.09
ICP was lowered by $9.76/bl to $70.25/bl. Pyrenees Dated* +8.50 89.65 89.75 -0.09
Van Gogh Dated* +4.50 85.65 85.75 -0.09
Sudan
Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
Nile Blend Dated* -3.00 78.15 78.25 -0.09
Dar Blend Dated* -1.85 79.30 79.40 -0.09
*when North Sea Dated is unavailable owing to a UK holiday, Substitute Dated
will be used

Benchmarks
North Sea Dated 81.20
Substitute Dated 84.32
Tapis Singapore close 91.77

Argus Condensate Index (ACI)

$/bl
Bonny Light vs Tapis $/bl
ACI, Qatar DFC 78.32
-6.0
Qatar DFC cfr Singapore 81.65
Tapis = 0
-8.0 Australia North West Shelf (NWS) cfr Singapore 78.32
DFC cfr differential to NWS cfr 3
-10.0 $/t
VLCC Qatar-Singapore freight 11.52
-12.0 Aframax northwest Australia-Singapore freight 26.98
hh

-14.0
Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index $/bl
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
-16.0
Argus JCC (fixed) 116.3807 112.4639 110.8562 106.0289 -
-18.0 Argus JCC (preliminary) 100.3833
4 Jul 22 2 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 20 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Asia-Pacific

Delivered China Delivered Northeast Asia $/bl

Month Basis Diff Bid Ask ±
ESPO Blend and Oman rolled to new month on a delivered
ex-ship (des) Shandong basis. WTI del NE Asia Apr Mar Dubai +7.80 88.03 88.13 nc

February-delivery ESPO Blend was assessed at a $6.50/ Delivered ex-ship Shandong prices $/bl
bl discount to April Ice Brent, with market players expecting Diff
Grade Timing Basis Low High Price ±
the low differential to be attractive enough for independent Mid

refineries. ESPO Blend Feb

Apr Ice
-6.50 78.88 79.88 79.38 nc
Brent
The sour indicator in Shandong market, Oman, was val-
Apr Ice
ued at a $10.50/bl discount to April Ice Brent for February- Djeno Feb -3.20 82.48 82.88 82.68 +2.58
Brent
delivery, while April-delivery Oman Export Blend on a net Tupi Mar
May Ice
+0.70 85.84 86.44 86.14 +2.43
Brent
forward basis was at a parity to June Ice Brent.
May Ice
A new trade cycle for Atlantic basin grades is expected Johan Sverdrup Mar
Brent
-0.60 84.34 85.34 84.84 +2.43

to kick off soon but there was limited information so far on Apr Ice
Oman Feb -10.50 74.88 75.88 75.38 nc
Brent
values for the new month.
China has raised its oil product export quotas, setting
Mideast Gulf and Atlantic basin crude cfr Asia (fob plus freight)
the first batch for 2023 at 18.99mn t, up by 46pc compared Singapore China
with 13mn t in the first batch of 2022. The boost in the oil Month $/bl ± $/bl ±
product export quotas and the country's emergence from Mideast Gulf
Covid-19 lockdowns could herald a rebound in domestic oil Dubai Mar 83.20 nc 83.91 nc
Oman Mar 83.64 nc 84.34 nc
demand.
Murban Mar 85.53 nc 86.20 nc
Upper Zakum Mar 83.44 nc 84.13 nc
Sutu Den $/bl
Umm Zulu Mar 85.51 nc 86.18 nc
130 Qatar Marine Mar 84.48 nc 85.16 nc
Al-Shaheen Mar 82.88 nc 83.59 nc
Basrah Medium Feb 83.24 nc 83.96 nc
120 Basrah Heavy Feb 77.74 nc 78.48 nc
West Africa
Cabinda Dtd 84.89 +3.04 85.56 +3.04
110 Girassol Dtd 85.16 +3.04 85.84 +3.04
Bonny Light Dtd 86.71 +3.04 87.37 +3.04
hh
Qua Iboe Dtd 88.08 +2.99 88.73 +2.99
100 Escravos Dtd 88.52 +3.04 89.18 +3.04
North Sea
Forties Dtd 87.64 +3.04
90 US Gulf coast
WTI Prompt 86.19 +1.95 86.67 +1.95
Mars Feb 80.26 +1.77 80.78 +1.77
80
WCS Feb 70.07 +2.00 70.61 +2.00
7 Jul 22 6 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

Pyrenees $/bl Minas $/bl

160 110

150 105

140 100

130 95

120 90
hh hh

110 85

100 80

90 75

80 70
7 Jul 22 6 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 7 Jul 22 6 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 21 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Russia Asia-Pacific

Traders remained focused on the price cap and any impact it Russia Asia-Pacific $/bl
may have on exports of Russia’s far east grades. Basis Diff Bid Ask ±

The Russian government will release details later this ESPO Blend Feb Dubai swaps -7.50 73.35 73.45 +2.96
month of how it plans to monitor and implement its ban on ESPO Blend* Mar Ice Brent -12.22 73.35 73.45 +2.96
oil exports to companies that adhere to the G7-led price Sokol Mar Dubai swaps -10.00 70.23 70.33 +2.34

cap. The government is working to devise "the mechanism Sakhalin Blend Mar Dubai swaps -10.00 70.23 70.33 +2.34

of monitoring and implementation of the decree", deputy *Feb-loading cargoes

Russia-Caspian crude cif basis Singapore
prime minister Alexander Novak said according to state news
Bid Ask ±
agency Tass.
BTC Blend 90.12 90.18 -0.26
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on 27 December
Urals (Black Sea) 50.32 50.38 -0.60
banning oil exports to companies that agree to the price
cap terms, but he left it to the government to work out the
details of how the decree will be enforced. Dirty freight rates from Kozmino (ESPO) 100,000t $/bl
Rate
Under Putin's decree, the restrictions on selling oil to
price cap participants will go into effect on 1 February and To Yosu 2.61
will remain in place until at least 1 July. The decree ap- To north China 2.69
To Chiba 2.69
plies to "supply contracts that directly or indirectly use the
To Singapore 2.75
mechanism of setting a price cap" and will be in force "at all
stages up until the final buyer".
Urals fob Primorsk vs ESPO Blend $/bl
Assessment rationale 30
ESPO Blend fob Kozmino (PA0007196) is assessed on the basis ESPO Blend = 0
of transactions, as and when these are identified in the mar- 20

ket commentary, in accordance with the methodology. 10

hh
-10

-20

-30

-40
4 Jul 22 2 Sep 22 2 Nov 22 3 Jan 23

ESPO Blend vs ANS USWC $/bl Azeri Light vs Tapis $/bl

0 2
ANS USWC = 0
-5 0

-10 -2

-15 -4

-20 -6
hh

-25 -8

-30 -10

-35 -12

-40 -14
1 Jul 22 1 Sep 22 1 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 4 Oct 22 2 Nov 22 1 Dec 22 3 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 22 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Official prices

Official formula prices $/bl Official formula prices (continued) $/bl

Basis Basis
Saudi Arabia Nov Dec Jan Dubai Jan Feb Mar
Saudi Arabia to US: fob Ras Tanura
Arab Extra Light ASCI +8.20 +8.20 +8.20 Dubai fob Oman MOG OSP -0.05 -0.05 -0.10
Arab Light ASCI +6.35 +6.35 +6.35 Yemen fob Salif/Ash Shihr Apr May Jun
Arab Medium ASCI +6.15 +6.15 +6.15 Marib Light Dated na na na
Arab Heavy ASCI +5.70 +5.70 +5.70
Masila Dated na na -4.45
Saudi Arabia to US: delivered US Gulf
Arab Extra Light ASCI +9.50 +9.50 +9.50 Iraq Nov* Dec* Jan†
Arab Light ASCI +7.65 +7.65 +7.65 Iraq to Europe
Arab Medium ASCI +7.45 +7.45 +7.45
Kirkuk (fob Ceyhan) Dated -3.60 -2.55 -4.35
Arab Heavy ASCI +7.00 +7.00 +7.00
Saudi Arabia to NW Europe: fob Ras Tanura* Basrah Medium Dated -9.20 -8.20 -9.90
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement +2.70 +3.40 +1.40 Basrah Heavy Dated -13.95 -13.25 -14.75
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement +0.90 +1.70 -0.10
Iraq to US
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -1.30 -1.30 -1.80
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -5.70 -4.90 -4.90 Kirkuk (fob Ceyhan) ASCI 0.30 0.00 0.00
Saudi Arabia to Mediterranean: fob Sidi Kerir* Basrah Medium ASCI -2.00 -1.70 -2.00
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement +3.00 +3.50 +1.80
Basrah Heavy ASCI -6.05 -5.75 -6.25
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement +0.90 +1.40 -0.10
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -1.20 -1.00 -1.50 Iraq to Asia-Pacific
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -5.90 -5.40 -5.40 Basrah Medium Oman/Dubai avg 1.70 0.90 -0.50
Saudi Arabia to Mediterranean: fob Ras Tanura*
Basrah Heavy Oman/Dubai avg -2 -3.25 -5.05
Arab Extra Light Ice Brent Settlement +3.00 +3.50 +1.80
Arab Light Ice Brent Settlement +0.90 +1.40 -0.10
Arab Medium Ice Brent Settlement -1.20 -1.00 -1.50 Official selling prices $/bl
Arab Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -5.90 -5.40 -5.40
Abu Dhabi Nov Dec Jan
Saudi Arabia to Asia-Pacific: fob Ras Tanura Murban 92.45 93.53 90.90
Arab Super Light Oman/Dubai avg +9.15 +9.15 +7.35 Das premium to Murban -1.10 -1.10 -1.20
Arab Extra Light Oman/Dubai avg +6.35 +6.45 +6.45 Umm Lulu premium to Murban 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arab Light Oman/Dubai avg +5.85 +5.45 +3.25 Upper Zakum premium to Murban -1.70 -2.80 -5.20
Arab Medium Oman/Dubai avg +4.00 +3.20 +2.10 Qatar Oct Nov Dec
Arab Heavy Oman/Dubai avg +2.45 +1.25 -1.25 Dukhan/Land premium to Oman/Dubai avg +5.40 +5.15 +4.80
Iran Nov Dec Jan Marine premium to Oman/Dubai avg +4.55 +4.55 +4.00
Oman Dec Jan Feb
Iran to Mediterranean: fob Kharg Island
Oman 90.79 86.15 77.43
Iranian Light Ice Brent Settlement -1.25 -0.70 -2.10
Indonesia Oct Nov Dec
Iranian Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -4.45 -4.25 -4.75 Minas 93.45 90.84 78.74
Foroozan Blend Ice Brent Settlement -4.40 -4.35 -4.60 Duri 97.87 96.28 85.13
Soroush Ice Brent Settlement na na na Widuri 92.29 89.68 77.58
Nowruz Ice Brent Settlement na na na Belida 90.32 89.15 78.91
Iran to NW Europe: fob Kharg Island Attaka 90.21 89.03 78.82
Iranian Light Ice Brent Settlement -1.15 -0.35 -2.05 Ardjuna 89.28 88.11 77.87
Iranian Heavy Ice Brent Settlement -4.40 -4.40 -4.85 Cinta 91.74 89.13 77.03
Foroozan Blend Ice Brent Settlement -4.50 -4.30 -4.95 Senipah 80.94 80.01 70.25
Iran to Asia-Pacific: fob Kharg Island Malaysia Oct Nov Dec
Tapis 100.38 99.19 88.00
Iranian Light Oman/Dubai avg +5.65 +5.35 +3.15
MCO Alpha Premium +13.50 +13.20 +12.75
Iranian Heavy Oman/Dubai avg +2.60 +1.85 +0.75
Labuan 106.83 104.87 93.87
Foroozan Blend Oman/Dubai avg +2.70 +1.95 +0.70 Miri 106.83 104.87 93.87
Soroush Oman/Dubai avg -1.15 -2.30 -4.05 Kikeh 106.83 104.87 93.87
Nowruz Oman/Dubai avg -1.15 -2.30 -4.05 Bintulu 102.96 100.40 88.64
Kuwait Nov Dec Jan Dulang 109.82 107.64 96.12
Kuwait to Asia-Pacific Brunei Aug Sep Oct
Kuwait Oman/Dubai avg +4.00 +3.20 +2.10 Seria Light 111.75 102.58 100.38
Kuwait to US Champion 111.85 102.68 100.48
Kuwait ASCI +6.15 +6.15 +6.15
Kuwait Arab Medium 0.00 0.00 0.00 Reference prices $/bl
Kuwait to Mediterranean
fob Kuwait Dated -2.70 -2.70 -3.80 Opec reference basket monthly avg Oct Nov Dec
fob Sidi Kerir Dated -2.40 -2.40 -3.50 Opec 93.57 89.73 79.68
Kuwait to northwest Europe Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index Aug Sep Oct
fob Kuwait Dated -2.95 -2.95 -4.05 Argus JCC 112.46 110.86 106.03
*months prior to July were priced against Ice Bwave The Argus Japanese Crude Cocktail Index is created by Argus based on data pub-
lished by the Customs and Tariff Bureau of Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 23 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

futures and forward markets

Futures markets $/bl Forward markets $/bl

Open High Low S'pore* London† Settle ± Bid Ask ±
Ice Brent
North Sea, Singapore close
Mar 85.96 87.00 81.78 86.24 83.22 82.10 -3.81
Apr 85.69 86.66 81.86 85.88 83.16 82.12 -3.53 Feb 86.35 86.43 +2.83
May 85.31 86.22 81.72 85.44 82.93 81.95 -3.32 Mar 86.32 86.38 +2.24
*4:30pm Singapore minute marker, †4:30pm London minute marker
Apr 85.95 86.03 +2.03
Nymex Light Sweet
Feb 80.57 81.50 76.60 80.70 77.79 76.93 -3.33 May 85.51 85.59 nc
Mar 80.66 81.62 76.81 80.83 78.01 77.12 -3.33 North Sea, London close
Apr 80.89 81.64 76.98 80.86 78.14 77.27 -3.26
Dated 81.17 81.23 -0.09
May 80.65 81.47 77.06 80.72 78.12 77.33 -3.12
Dec 23 74.97 -2.34 Feb 83.22 83.30 nc
Dec 24 70.55 -1.76 Mar 83.19 83.25 nc
Dec 25 67.21 -1.42
Apr 83.16 83.24 +0.15
Dec 26 64.39 -1.23
Dec 27 61.99 -1.12 May 82.94 83.02 +0.24
DME Oman Dubai, Singapore close
Mar 82.26 +2.87
Apr 81.74 +2.75 Mar 81.75 81.85 +3.20
May 81.44 +2.61 Apr 80.85 80.95 +2.96
Jun 81.19 nc
May 80.23 80.33 +2.69
Volume bl 1,627,000
IFAD Murban Jun 79.69 79.79 nc
Mar 84.20 +2.93 Dubai, London close
Apr 83.38 +2.86
Mar 78.63 78.71 +0.37
May 82.89 +2.32
Jun 82.60 +2.27 Apr 77.72 77.82 +0.13
Volume bl 2,922,000 May 77.10 77.20 -0.14
Tocom Mideast Gulf (day session)
Jun 76.56 76.66 nc
Feb 79.67 +0.22
Mar 78.98 +0.04 WTI Cushing, 1:30pm Houston
Apr 78.18 +0.15 Feb 76.91 76.95 -3.33
May 77.33 +0.08
Mar 77.10 77.14 -3.33
Volume bl 476,140
Apr 77.25 77.29 -3.26

INE crude futures May 77.31 77.35 -3.12

Timing Settle Yuan/bl ± Settle $/bl ±

Feb 566.60 +13.80 81.55 +2.18 Intermonths $/bl

Mar 572.00 +11.60 82.33 +1.87 Mid
Apr 571.40 +9.90 82.25 +1.63
May 568.00 +6.30 81.76 +1.11 North Sea Singapore close
Volume bl 31,215,000 Feb/Mar 0.040
Mar/Apr 0.360
Ice Brent: First month vs second month $/bl
Apr/May 0.440
7.0 North Sea London close
Ice Brent second month = 0
6.0 Feb/Mar 0.040

5.0 Mar/Apr 0.020

4.0 Apr/May 0.220

3.0
hh 2.0 Forward spreads 4:30pm London $/bl
1.0 N Sea/Dubai WTI/N Sea WTI/Dubai

0.0 Feb - -5.47

-1.0 Mar - -5.21 -0.66

-2.0 Apr 5.43 -5.06 0.37

12 Jul 22 7 Sep 22 3 Nov 22 3 Jan 23 May 5.83 -4.86 0.97

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 24 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Daily Netbacks

Northwest Europe (3 Jan) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Freight Netback ± 30 Dec Yield Freight Netback ± 30 Dec

Arab Light 97.60 2.06 95.54 -1.42 94.03 2.06 91.97 -1.29
Arab Heavy 87.21 2.14 85.07 -0.71 83.32 2.14 81.18 -0.56
Azeri 106.26 2.65 103.61 -1.87 101.73 2.65 99.08 -1.50
Bonny Light 108.10 2.99 105.11 -2.07 104.32 2.99 101.33 -1.67
Brass River 106.18 2.89 103.29 -1.78 102.89 2.89 100.00 -1.43
Brent 101.79 1.63 100.16 -1.53 97.61 1.63 95.98 -1.28
Es Sider 100.34 2.63 97.71 -1.46 96.71 2.63 94.08 -1.31
Forties 100.58 1.62 98.96 -1.49 97.26 1.62 95.64 -1.38
Iranian Light 96.64 2.06 94.58 -1.23 92.47 2.06 90.41 -1.05
Kirkuk 94.92 2.05 92.87 -1.22 91.36 2.05 89.31 -1.02
Kuwait 90.09 2.11 87.98 -0.91 86.58 2.11 84.47 -0.79
Murban 102.58 1.98 100.60 -1.71 99.20 1.98 97.22 -1.59
Saharan Blend 102.65 2.50 100.15 -1.59 100.08 2.50 97.58 -1.49
Urals 97.30 0.00 97.30 -1.29 93.04 0.00 93.04 -1.05
Zueitina 102.52 2.61 99.91 -1.70 98.13 2.61 95.52 -1.44

Singapore (3 Jan) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Freight Netback ± 30 Dec Yield Freight Netback ± 30 Dec

Arab Light 97.10 2.08 95.02 +0.58 84.07 2.08 81.99 +0.32
Arab Heavy 89.33 2.15 87.18 +0.62 73.14 2.15 70.99 +0.36
Dubai 96.88 2.11 94.77 +0.58 81.77 2.11 79.66 +0.34
ESPO Blend 99.01 2.75 96.26 +0.57 81.51 2.75 78.76 +0.25
Iranian Heavy 93.21 2.13 91.08 +0.61 75.74 2.13 73.61 +0.37
Minas 98.09 6.12 91.97 +0.35 77.61 6.12 71.49 +0.04
Murban 100.29 1.99 98.30 +0.68 87.00 1.99 85.01 +0.48
Oman 93.75 2.12 91.63 +0.51 75.64 2.12 73.52 +0.30

US Gulf coast (3 Jan) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Freight Netback ± 30 Dec Yield Freight Netback ± 30 Dec

Arab Light 114.35 2.48 111.87 -5.54 99.42 2.48 96.94 -5.73
Arab Medium 111.62 2.52 109.10 -5.46 93.24 2.52 90.72 -5.60
Bonny Light 121.08 3.64 117.44 -7.16 97.30 3.64 93.66 -5.02
LLS 117.16 0.00 117.16 -6.02 105.57 0.00 105.57 -5.54
Mars 111.29 0.00 111.29 -5.64 91.57 0.00 91.57 -5.68
Maya 100.91 6.23 94.68 -4.80 72.07 6.23 65.84 -3.43
WTI 116.24 0.00 116.24 -5.80 106.45 0.00 106.45 -5.24

US west coast (3 Jan) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Freight Netback ± 30 Dec Yield Freight Netback ± 30 Dec

ANS 111.97 0.00 111.97 -8.89 87.79 0.00 87.79 -5.77

Oriente 110.82 9.84 100.98 -8.45 85.61 9.84 75.77 -5.12

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 25 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Monthly Netbacks

Northwest Europe (December) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Netback ± Nov Yield Netback ± Nov

Arab Light 94.55 92.40 -12.17 91.76 89.62 -11.45

Arab Heavy 83.71 81.49 -10.26 80.67 78.44 -9.54
Azeri 103.26 98.62 -14.08 99.43 94.79 -13.38
Bonny Light 105.37 101.79 -13.49 101.63 98.05 -13.21
Brass River 102.82 99.35 -13.77 99.21 95.74 -13.72
Brent 98.37 96.06 -14.16 94.93 92.62 -13.27
Es Sider 97.13 92.52 -13.58 94.36 89.75 -12.75
Forties 97.12 94.84 -13.93 94.53 92.25 -13.22
Iranian Light 93.20 91.05 -12.51 89.88 87.74 -11.68
Kirkuk 91.48 89.34 -11.80 88.63 86.50 -11.16
Kuwait 86.60 84.41 -10.87 83.92 81.72 -10.17
Murban 99.37 97.31 -13.40 96.69 94.64 -12.67
Saharan Blend 99.17 94.80 -13.98 97.21 92.84 -13.39
Urals 94.04 94.04 -12.81 90.61 90.61 -12.03
Zueitina 99.53 94.95 -13.46 95.80 91.21 -12.70

Singapore (December) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Netback ± Nov Yield Netback ± Nov

Arab Light 93.97 91.69 -9.47 81.30 79.02 -7.85

Arab Heavy 85.98 83.61 -8.24 70.11 67.74 -6.18
Dubai 93.48 91.16 -9.31 77.86 75.54 -8.24
ESPO 95.98 93.32 -11.17 78.78 76.11 -9.02
Iranian Heavy 89.74 87.39 -8.76 72.58 70.23 -6.53
Minas 95.48 89.90 -11.74 74.94 69.36 -9.75
Murban 97.09 94.90 -10.01 83.99 81.80 -8.26
Oman 90.47 88.14 -8.98 72.67 70.33 -6.62

US Gulf (December) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Netback ± Nov Yield Netback ± Nov

Arab Light 105.36 102.77 -13.89 93.80 91.20 -12.40

Arab Medium 102.90 100.27 -13.47 88.54 85.91 -11.35
Bonny Light 112.12 107.73 -13.93 91.51 87.11 -15.51
LLS 107.82 107.82 -14.87 98.52 98.52 -13.84
Mars 102.80 102.80 -13.93 87.16 87.16 -11.63
Maya 93.15 86.28 -12.61 69.08 62.21 -8.19
WTI 106.50 106.50 -14.73 98.54 98.54 -13.94

US west coast (December) $/bl

Complex Simple
Yield Netback ± Nov Yield Netback ± Nov

ANS 105.24 105.24 -17.86 83.87 83.87 -17.25

Oriente 104.73 95.02 -19.42 82.37 72.67 -19.33

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 26 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Deals done

Argus AGS deals done $/bl

Adjusted Volume
Differential Reported AGS index AGS Marker
Location basis differential price differential price b/d bl

Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.55 +0.56 77.49 2,000

Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.70 +0.71 77.64 1,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.50 +0.51 77.44 15,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.50 +0.51 77.44 3,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.55 +0.56 77.49 3,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.60 +0.61 77.54 1,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.70 +0.71 77.64 3,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.70 +0.71 77.64 15,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.70 +0.71 77.64 3,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.70 +0.71 77.64 5,000
Magellan East Houston Feb WTI +0.70 +0.71 77.64 3,000
*Table shows deals as reported and also normalized values for the calculation of VWAs

North America pipeline deals done

Trade Basis
Grade Location Differential basis Differential Price $/bl Volume b/d
month month

WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.18 5,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.17 3,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.17 31,714
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.16 1,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.15 2,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.15 5,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.15 5,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.15 7,857
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.15 10,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.14 2,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.14 3,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.14 8,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.12 5,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.12 5,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.11 2,000
WTI Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.11 3,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.25 2,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.25 5,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.30 1,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.30 5,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.30 5,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 1,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 1,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 2,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 2,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 2,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 3,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 3,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 3,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 5,000
WTI Midland Enterprise Feb Feb WTI +0.35 10,000
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days +0.70 1,000
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days +0.75 1,000
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days +0.75 1,000
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days +0.75 3,000
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days +0.75 4,000
Bakken DAPL North Dakota Jan Jan CMA Nymex trade days +1.20 1,000
Bakken Patoka Illinois Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days +1.20 3,571
Bakken Patoka Illinois Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days +1.20 3,571
Bakken Patoka Illinois Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days +1.20 7,143
HLS Empire Louisiana Feb Feb WTI -2.20 1,000

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 27 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Deals done (continued)

North America pipeline deals done

Trade Basis
Grade Location Differential basis Differential Price $/bl Volume b/d
month month

LLS St. James Louisiana Feb Feb WTI +1.50 2,000

LLS St. James Louisiana Feb Feb WTI +1.50 3,000
LLS St. James Louisiana Feb Feb WTI +1.50 5,000
Light Sweet Guernsey Guernsey Wyoming Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.10 1,000
Light Sweet Guernsey Guernsey Wyoming Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.10 1,000
Light Sweet Guernsey Guernsey Wyoming Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.10 1,000
Light Sweet Guernsey Guernsey Wyoming Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.10 1,000
Light Sweet Guernsey Guernsey Wyoming Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.10 1,000
Light Sweet Guernsey Guernsey Wyoming Feb Feb CMA Nymex trade days -0.10 3,000
Mars Clovelly Louisiana Feb Feb WTI -5.25 2,000
Niobrara Cushing Cushing Oklahoma Feb Feb WTI +1.00 3,000
Poseidon Houma Louisiana Feb Feb Mars -1.10 3,000
Poseidon Houma Louisiana Feb Feb WTI -6.50 1,000
Southern Green Canyon Nederland / Texas City Feb Feb WTI -5.25 1,000
Southern Green Canyon Nederland / Texas City Feb Feb WTI -4.70 1,000
Southern Green Canyon Nederland / Texas City Feb Feb WTI -4.70 3,000
Southern Green Canyon Nederland / Texas City Feb Feb WTI -4.50 1,000
Southern Green Canyon Nederland / Texas City Feb Feb WTI -4.50 2,000
Thunder Horse Clovelly Louisiana Feb Feb WTI -2.35 5,000
WTL Midland Midland Texas Feb Feb WTI Midland -1.00 3,000

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 28 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Deals done (continued)

Global crude deals $/bl

Deal Delivery Diff Diff Loading Loading
Region Grade Volume bl Price Diff basis
date period timing price from to

Northwest Europe North Sea 3 Jan 23 Mar 200,000 83.25

Northwest Europe North Sea 3 Jan 23 Mar 100,000 83.24
Northwest Europe North Sea 3 Jan 23 Mar 100,000 83.22
Northwest Europe North Sea 3 Jan 23 Mar 100,000 83.24
Northwest Europe North Sea 3 Jan 23 Mar 100,000 83.16
Northwest Europe North Sea 3 Jan 23 Mar 100,000 83.16
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.45 9 Jan 23 13 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.43 9 Jan 23 13 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.43 9 Jan 23 13 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.43 9 Jan 23 13 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.43 9 Jan 23 13 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.35 16 Jan 23 20 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.35 16 Jan 23 20 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.30 16 Jan 23 20 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 200,000 Mar North Sea -1.30 16 Jan 23 20 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.30 16 Jan 23 20 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 200,000 Mar North Sea -1.30 16 Jan 23 20 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 Mar North Sea -1.15 23 Jan 23 27 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 201,000 CFD -0.20 6 Jan 23 10 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 174,000 CFD -0.20 6 Jan 23 10 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 380,000 CFD -0.08 18 Jan 23 19 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 CFD -0.08 23 Jan 23 27 Jan 23
Northwest Europe North Sea Dated CFD 3 Jan 23 100,000 CFD -0.06 23 Jan 23 27 Jan 23

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 29 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Infrastructure news

Angola confirms delay to Cabinda refinery December after a heavy load carrier damaged two road traffic
The first implementation phase of Angola's 60,000 b/d bridges in Holtenau at the eastern entrance of the canal.
Cabinda refinery has been postponed, the country's oil The Kiel Canal offers vessels a shorter route from the Baltic
ministry said today. Sea to the North Sea which typically cuts 24 hours from the al-
Oil minister Diamantino Azevedo put the delay down to ternative seaborne route around the Danish Jutland peninsula.
national economic factors and global headwinds such as the By George Maher-Bonnett
Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Construction of the first phase, with a crude distillation Power cut disrupts Lyondell Houston FCC
unit (CDU) of 30,000 b/d, had initially been expected at the A power interruption disrupted operations involving a fluid
end of 2021, after London-based investment firm Gemcorp catalytic cracking (FCC) unit over the weekend at Lyondell-
Capital had taken over the project. Forecasts for completion Basell’s 268,000 b/d refinery in Houston, Texas.
were later pushed to the first or second quarters of 2022. The brief outage occurred at approximately 5:35pm ET on
The first phase is also to include a desalter, a kerosene 1 January, according to a filing to state environmental regula-
treatment and ancillary infrastructures including a conven- tors. Power was re-established to the unit, and normal opera-
tional buoy mooring system, pipelines and storage for more tions resumed within five minutes, according to the filing.
than 1.2mm bl. The two other stages will include a catalytic FCCs convert vacuum gasoil primarily to gasoline
reformer, a hydrotreater and a catalytic cracking unit. blendstocks.
Azevedo said the Angolan government remains "very
committed" to the project, and expects it "to go live this TotalEnergies Texas refinery restarts ops
year." He said two other key projects currently being devel- TotalEnergies’ 240,000 b/d refinery in Port Arthur, Texas,
oped are the 100,000 b/d refinery in Soyo and the 200,000 commenced start-up operations late last week following sub-
b/d Lobito oil refinery. freezing temperatures hitting the region the previous week.
The aim to eventually export oil products will go hand in Start-up operations commenced on 31 December, accord-
hand with a continued push "to accelerate oil exploration in ing to a filing to state environmental regulators. The refinery
the country", Azevedo said. was shut on 23 December because of freezing temperatures,
By Giulio Bajona and was down for a few days because of steam issues, ac-
cording to a source familiar with refinery operations.
Kiel Canal reopens after oil spill cleaned up The refiner did not comment on a time frame of resump-
The Kiel Canal reopened today after a clean-up operation to tion of full activities.
remove crude oil from the canal was completed on schedule.
A leak along an oil pipeline operated by Raffinerie Heide PBF Energy Martinez refinery starts work
near the town of Brunsbuttel at the western entry to the Planned maintenance and associated flaring started Monday
Canal shut the waterway from 21 December. The German cen- at PBF Energy's 157,000 b/d refinery in Martinez, California.
tral command for maritime emergencies had previously told Work activities and continuous flaring started on 2 Janu-
Argus that traffic would be suspended until at least 3 January. ary, with potential intermittent flaring throughout the rest
The Kiel Canal authority told Argus that the waterway of the month, according to a filing to regional hazardous
reopened today at 11:00 GMT. materials monitors.
The 99km-long canal had also shut on 30 November until 1 The refiner did not comment on units affected during the
planned event.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 30 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news

Iran sees exports at 1mn b/d in 2023 the rest of the world, thanks to the sanctions, Tehran will
Sanctions-hit Iran foresees its crude and condensate exports almost certainly struggle to repatriate much of these rev-
at around 1mn b/d in 2023, roughly in line with the latter enues.
end of 2022. By Nader Itayim
The Majlis research centre, which advises Iran’s parlia-
ment, issued its forecast at the weekend as the government Iraqi crude exports steady in Dec: Ministry
prepares its draft budget for the upcoming Iranian year that Iraqi crude exports marketed by state-owned Somo were
begins on 21 March. broadly flat for the month of December, but the firm's rev-
Iran does not publicly disclose its oil production or ex- enues fell with prices.
port figures, but the research centre's projection stands at, Preliminary figures from the country's oil ministry show ex-
or a little above, third-party estimates of the country's crude ports steady at 3.33mn b/d. Loadings from the southern port
and condensate exports. of Basrah averaged 3.25mn b/d, compared with 3.24mn b/d in
Argus' tracking put Iran's crude and condensate exports November, and exports of Somo-marketed Kirkuk Blend from
at around 870,000 b/d in October and above 1.1mn b/d in the Turkish port of Ceyhan decreased by 9pc to 72,000 b/d.
November, giving 791,000 b/d for the first 11 months of The ministry figures do not account for Kirkuk Blend supplies
2022. This is up on the sub-500,000 b/d Iran was selling for sold by the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government
much of 2019 and 2020, but is still well down on the 2.3mn- (KRG), which make up the majority of the grade's exports.
2.5mn b/d of exports in the first half of 2018, before the In December, Somo's average sale price fell by around
sanctions were reimposed. 11pc to $73.64/bl, and export revenue fell by nearly 8pc on
Oil analytics firm Vortexa, meanwhile, put Iran's exports the month to $7.61bn.
at 956,000 b/d in the January-November period, boosted By Edmundo Alfaro
by a jump in fourth quarter shipments. Vortexa data put oil
exports at 1.31mn b/d in October and November, up from Gabon's crude exports to fall in February
818,200 b/d in the third quarter. Gabon's crude exports have been scheduled at 154,000 b/d
Iran has opted against issuing information on its oil in February, down from January’s 187,000 b/d, according to
exports or production since the US pulled out of the nuclear a loading programme.
deal in 2018 and reimposed economic sanctions on Tehran, The February plan comprises 50,000 b/d of the country's
arguing that such data have the potential of being used Rabi Blend across two cargoes, which are scheduled to load
against it by the countries "enemies." Tracking Iranian oil ex- on 2-3 and 20-21 February on behalf of Gabon’s state-owned
ports accurately has been difficult because of the techniques GOC and Shell, respectively. Three 450,000 bl cargoes of the
it employs to cloak its shipments. niche Mandji grade will load in February, for an average of
Although Iran and the US have been locked in talks to 48,000 b/d, up from 44,000 b/d in January.
revive the nuclear deal, which would in turn lift US sanctions But the February programme shows only one 950,000 bl
and allow for an increase in Iran's oil exports, the Majlis cargo, or 34,000 b/d, of Rabi Light, a 72pc reduction from
research centre's forecast suggests it does not expect a January’s multi-month high of 123,000 b/d.
breakthrough to be imminent. One 600,000 bl cargo of light sweet Etame will load on
That very much falls in line with the latest view of the 26-27 February on behalf of US-based Vaalco, after the grade
talks from Washington, where US President Joe Biden was was absent from the January loading programme.
caught calling the deal "dead" in a video that surfaced in By Giulio Bajona
December.
The research centre also said its foresees an average Sonatrach cuts official Jan price: Sources
oil price of $75/bl in 2023, and highlighted economic and Algeria's state-owned Sonatrach has set its official January
geopolitical uncertainties, not least the Russian invasion of formula price for Saharan Blend crude exports at a 90¢/bl
Ukraine, that "will no doubt dominate the oil and energy premium to the North Sea Dated benchmark, according to
markets." market sources, a reduction of $1.75/bl on the month.
This will help deliver oil export revenues of $27.3bn for Market participants had anticipated Sonatrach to set the
Iran, the research centre said. January price to below a $2/bl premium to Dated.
With Iran's banking system still very much cut off from Argus' spot assessments for Saharan Blend averaged a

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 31 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news
Announcements
16¢/bl premium to Dated over 1-23 December, when the
majority of January-loading cargoes would have traded. This Changes to North Sea Dated assessment
compares with a premium of 83¢/bl in November. Following consultation, Argus will include light sweet
Sonatrach typically circulates its retroactive official for- Midland WTI crude shipments in its assessment of
mula price after clearing out most of its own supplies. Spot North Sea Dated crude prices from May 2023. Argus
activity has been thin, with the majority of January-loading has published a list of 12 US Gulf coast terminals
cargoes already placed. from which exports of Midland WTI to Europe are
By Edmundo Alfaro eligible for consideration in the price discovery
process.
More tankers arrive for Venezuela oil exports The approved terminals from which cargoes of
The second ship in 72 hours slated to carry 250,000 bl of Midland WTI loading for delivery to Europe will be
Boscan heavy crude for Chevron to the US entered Venezu- eligible for inclusion in the Argus North Sea Dated
ela's Lake Maracaibo this morning, the first ones to do so assessment are:
since the US eased sanctions in late November.
The Kerala Panamax tanker arrived at the port of Bajo Houston/Texas City/surrounding area
Grande, Zulia state, after leaving Honduras on 11 December, „„ Enterprise Houston Ship Channel (EHSC)
ship tracking information confirmed. The tanker will carry
crude to a US refinery in the Gulf of Mexico, mostly likely „„ Energy Transfer Houston Terminal (ETHT)
Chevron's 369,000 b/d Pascagoula refinery which is suited
for Boscan-type heavy crude grades, a Chevron source and „„ LBC Bayport (Seabrook)
another in Maracaibo said.
It follows the Beauty One Handymax which arrived at Lake „„ Enterprise Texas City
Maracaibo on 29 December. It is expected to complete loading
250,000 bl of Boscan crude and leave soon, sources have said. „„ Enterprise Freeport
The port is the closest to Chevron's Petroboscan as-
phaltic crude project with state-owned PdV, which is now Corpus Christi/Ingleside
producing some 10,000 b/d since 21 December after being „„ Epic
mothballed since June. The Caribbean Voyager Aframax was
also expected to load upgraded Merey 16 or similar crude in „„ Enbridge Ingleside
eastern Venezuela's Jose terminal starting this weekend for
Chevron, sources and ship tracking data confirmed. „„ Flint Hills Resources
The UACC Eagle chartered by Chevron is also in transit to
arrive on 5 January at Venezuela's Jose terminal, laden with „„ Nustar Corpus Christi North Beach
620,400 bl of naphtha according to Vortexa data.
Oil operations have intensified even as the US state „„ Pin Oak
department said on Tuesday it does not consider Nicolas
Maduro to be the legitimate president of Venezuela. „„ Buckeye Texas Hub
The US government will work with the Venezuelan oppo-
sition to uphold its claim to US refiner Citgo and the coun- „„ South Texas Gateway
try's other overseas assets despite the recent ouster of Juan
Guaido, whom Washington viewed as Venezuela's legitimate Argus will continue to publish a version of the North
leader, the department said. Sea Dated assessment excluding WTI, called Dated
By Carlos Camacho BFOET but will retire its New North Sea Dated as-
sessment (PA0025857).
N Dakota oil output rebounds as state thaws To discuss these changes, please contact Michael
As much as 13pc of North Dakota’s 1.1mn b/d of crude Carolan at [email protected] or call
production remains offline following extreme winter +44 20 7780 4200.
weather in mid-December, but output is improving daily,

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 32 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news
Announcements
according to a state agency.
Crude output in the US’ third-largest producing state Changes to Russia-originating tanker rates
stood today at 960,00-1.01mn b/d as wells previously forced Following consultation, Argus will change its crude and
offline are being restored, the North Dakota Pipeline Asso- oil products freight coverage on several routes begin-
ciation (NDPA) told Argus. ning on 3 January because of the effect of sanctions on
There are “no major midstream issues ongoing,” said trade.
NDPA director Justin Kringstad, noting that favorable „„ The Primorsk-UKC 100,000t rate will change to a
weather and staff returning from holidays should both Baltic-UKC rate originating at ports in Finland, Estonia,
contribute to the rebound in production after severe Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Baltic Germany and Baltic
winter weather in mid-December knocked offline up to Sweden
400,000 b/d, or 36pc of the state's capacity.
Wells were shut and trucks were stranded as extreme „„ The Baltic-Mediterranean 100,000t rate will no longer
cold, blizzards and poor road conditions gripped the industry. involve routes originating at Baltic Russian ports
Crude production averaged 1.12mn b/d in October,
comparable to the prior month, the state’s Department of „„ The Novorossiysk-Mediterranean 140,000t rate will no
Mineral Resources (DMR) said on 19 December. longer be assessed
By Brett Holmes
„„ Black Sea rates to all destinations will be specifically
Canadian synthetic crude output down in Sep for non-Russian cargoes
Synthetic crude production in Alberta’s oil sands region
dropped slightly in September, according to data from the „„ Baltic-UKC, Baltic-Mediterranean and Black Sea-
Alberta Energy Regulator (AER). Mediterranean 30,000t fuel oil rates will no longer be
Production of synthetic crude in Alberta fell in Septem- assessed
ber by 13,000 b/d to 1.11mn b/d, although output was up
from 1.05mn b/d in September 2021. „„ Crude-specific freight rates for Urals will no longer
Canadian Natural Resources’ (CNRL) 294,000 b/d Horizon be assessed
project increased production to 288,000 b/d in September,
up from 259,000 b/d in the previous month and the highest Non-Russian cargoes are those not produced in the Rus-
level of synthetic production on record for the project. sian Federation, not blended with anything produced
Suncor’s 350,000 b/d Base Mine project decreased produc- in the Russian Federation and not exported from the
tion to 250,000 b/d in September from 308,000 b/d in the Russian Federation.
month previous. The company had said maintenance on its Up-
grader 1 would impact third-quarter output, while maintenance
at Upgrader 2 would span the second and third quarters.
Production at Syncrude joint venture’s 350,000 b/d The data that energy regulator ARC published today
Mildred Lake project rose to 246,000 b/d in September from includes storage withdrawals and internal transfers.
226,000 b/d in the month prior. Output had dropped by 1.4pc in 2021 compared with
Athabasca Oil Sands Project’s 300,000 b/d Scotford Upgrad- 2020, and by 9.7pc in 2020, compared with 2019 — when
er produced 331,000 b/d, down from 335,000 b/d in August. crude output stood at 531,000 b/d.
Syncrude Sweet Premium (SSP) at Edmonton, Alberta, The main boost last year came from the fields operated
the grade associated with upgraded bitumen in the oil by private-sector companies that produced 105,750 b/d, or
sands, was assessed as high as a $7.50/bl premium to Nymex 5pc more than in 2021. Meanwhile, PetroEcuador’s output
WTI CMA basis during the September trade cycle. averaged 374,640 b/d in 2022, or 1pc more than in the previ-
By Sam Duffy ous year. The state-owned company extracts 78pc of the oil
that Ecuador produces.
Ecuador’s crude output ticked up in 2022 Although output increased slightly in 2022, major ruptures
Ecuador’s crude production increased by 2pc to 480,390 b/d in in 2021 on the 360,000 b/d Sote and 450,000 b/d OCP pipelines
2022 from the previous year on a bump in private-sector out- slashed output for 20 days late that year. Output in December
put, turning around the past two consecutive years of declines. 2021 alone fell by 58pc compared with a year earlier.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 33 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news

And in 2022, an 18-day strike by indigenous protests in Lianyungang's operating rates to nameplate capacity after
June hit production that year, dropping output by about the lunar new year holiday ends in February 2023.
17pc from a year earlier, although the decline was not as State-owned PetroChina is preparing to start up its new
steep as in the previous year. 400,000 b/d Jieyang refinery in Guangdong province, despite
Ecuador essentially managed to keep its output roughly the dismal outlook for short-term oil demand. PetroChina
flat in 2022, taking these factors into consideration, said started injecting crude into the refinery's crude units at the
Fernando Reyes, vice-president of Ecuador's petroleum engi- end of October. Kuwait’s 615,000 b/d al-Zour refinery began
neers association. operations in November 2022, a refinery built with the inten-
It fell short 6pc compared with the 510,000 b/d goal tion of running heavy Kuwaiti crude.
given by the government in mid-2022, and the final result Potential supply cuts
was 17pc less compared with the initial goal of 580,000 b/d Supplies of Mideast Gulf crude may also tighten in 2023 as
set at the beginning of last year, he noted. the Opec+ consortium agreed in its last meeting in Decem-
Reyes said that the government put all the hope in ber to maintain its 2mn b/d quota cut.
production from block 43, also known as block ITT for its Mideast Gulf producers comprise the bulk of the Opec+
Ishpingo, Tambococha and Tiputini fields. The government group, and they usually prioritise cutting medium and heavy
and PetroEcuador expected that the area would reach an sour crude production as lighter crudes command a higher
output of over 80,000 b/d, but from January to November price. All eyes will be on the next meeting due in June 2023,
its average was barely 49,044 b/d, according to data from with any further production cuts helping to boost benchmark
PetroEcuador. Dubai prices, should producers choose to limit medium and
Energy minister Fernando Santos has set Ecuador's crude heavy sour crude production.
output goal for 2023 at 521,000 b/d, which is around 8.5pc Crude price outlook
more that the average of 2022. Middle East crudes — which are mainly medium to heavy
By Alberto Araujo and have a high sulphur content — have been under pressure
throughout 2022, dampening Dubai crude values.
Brent-Dubai EFS may narrow in 2023 The wide Brent-Dubai EFS can be largely attributed to
The price premium of light crude to heavier grades may nar- the diversion of Russia’s medium sour export Urals from
row in 2023, as demand for medium and heavy sour crudes Europe to Asia, as refiners in Europe and the US voluntarily
rises following Asian refinery start-ups while supplies may cut back Urals crude imports in protest to the Russia-Ukraine
tighten if Opec+ keeps cutting production. conflict. Ice Brent crude was in turn supported as European
The Brent-Dubai exchange of futures for swaps (EFS) — refiners increased demand for sweet crude including US WTI.
the premium of light sweet Ice Brent crude futures to me- Added support to light crude prices came from strong refin-
dium sour Mideast Gulf benchmark Dubai crude swaps, and ing margins and tight supplies of light crude, in part because
a key indicator of the light-heavy crude spread — widened of export restrictions affecting various Libyan streams.
sharply in 2022 as the Russian-Ukraine conflict in February Prices of light sour Mideast Gulf crudes also firmed rela-
boosted Ice Brent futures. The front month Brent-Dubai EFS tive to medium and heavy sour grades in 2022, because of
in 2022 averaged around $7.78/bl as of 30 December 2022, strong refining margins for gasoil and jet-kerosine. The price
compared to an annual average EFS of $3.18/bl in 2021. The premium of Saudi Arabia’s light sour Arab Extra Light crude
Brent-Dubai EFS in 2022 is set to be the widest on an annual to Arab Medium and Arab Heavy in the monthly official
average basis since Argus records began in 2003. prices surged in 2022 compared with 2021. The Arab Extra
Refinery start-ups Light official formula price was around $3.25/bl above Arab
But the Brent-Dubai EFS is likely to narrow in 2023 as refiner- Heavy on average in 2022, compared with around $1.22/bl in
ies coming on stream in Asia-Pacific and the Mideast Gulf 2021 and $1.03/bl in 2020.
will run on a diet of predominantly medium and heavy sour Hopes of recovering Chinese demand contributed to the
crude, which could underpin Dubai prices. volatility in oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2022, with
Chinese private-sector Shenghong Petrochemical started China going back and forth on easing and finally abandoning
trial runs at its 320,000 b/d Lianyungang refinery in east its zero-Covid policy in early December.
China's Jiangsu province from around 6 November and was If China demand resurges in 2023 as expected, the Brent-
running at around 60pc for the month. Shenghong may raise Dubai EFS should narrow as demand for Mideast Gulf crudes pick

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 34 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news

up again, traders said. But there remains uncertainty over global Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. The finance min-
oil demand in the coming year amid concerns over a recession, istry said oil prices averaged $94/bl in 2022, almost double
which may have some impact on the Brent-Dubai spread. the $50/bl on which the budget for last year was based.
By YouLiang Chay and Reena Nathan But for 2023, Oman is again basing its budget on a conser-
vative $55/bl oil price for the year and production of 1.175mn
Eurozone manufacturing contraction eases b/d, up from 1.051mn b/d in 2022. Oman's total crude and
The eurozone's manufacturing sector contracted again in condensate production averaged 1.063mn b/d in the first 11
December, but at a lesser rate than in prior months as infla- months of 2022, according to energy ministry data.
tionary pressures eased further. Oman forecasts its spending at OR11.35bn in 2023, down
In its monthly survey, S&P Global said the region's manu- by 6.4pc from OR12.13bn it budgeted to spend in 2022 and
facturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 47.8, below down by 13pc from the OR13.09bn it actually spent in 2022.
the 50 reading that marks the shift from contraction to The ministry said the reduced year on year spending comes
expansion for a sixth successive month, but an improvement as part of an ongoing strategy to rationalise spending in the
from 47.1 in November. face of ongoing geopolitical instability and economic uncer-
S&P Global said the rate of input price inflation was the tainties across the world.
weakest since November 2020, and manufacturers raised By Ieva Paldaviciute
output charges by a lesser degree. Still, new orders re-
mained low and companies made further inroads into their Galp sees hit to profit from windfall tax
backlogs. Purchases of raw materials also fell. Portugal's integrated oil firm Galp expects to take a hit of up
"[This suggests] that manufacturers will have to cut to €100mn ($107mn) to its 2022 profits from the country's so-
production sharply further in coming months unless demand called windfall tax on energy and food retailers that came
revives soon, S&P Global chief business economist Chris Wil- into force on 1 January.
liamson said. "With the global economic backdrop darkening Galp is likely to be the most, if not the only, energy
and eurozone interest rates rising again in December, risks company to be affected by the tax, which was approved by
to the demand outlook remain skewed to the downside." Portugal's parliament in the second half of December.
By Ben Winkley The tax rate is at 33pc of windfall profits, which are de-
fined as annual growth in taxable profits of a liable company of
Oman approves budget with 1.3bn rial deficit more than 20pc in 2022 and 2023, compared with the average
Oman has approved its budget for 2023, forecasting a fiscal reported in the previous four years. The rate will be charged
deficit of 1.3bn Omani rials ($3.38bn) that would more than through the system of corporate tax collection in Portugal.
reverse the OR1.15bn surplus the country said it banked in Galp's estimated effect from the tax equals the total revenue
2022, driven by higher oil prices. expected by the government from the measure, from the energy
The projected deficit is equivalent to around 3pc of and food retail sectors, which is €50mn-100 mn/yr, according to
Oman's gross domestic product (GDP) and 13pc of the Portugal's secretary of state for fiscal affairs Nuno Felix.
OR10.05bn in revenue the finance ministry expects in 2023. Neighbouring Spain's broader 1.2pc windfall tax", applied
Oil and gas revenue has been forecast at around OR6.72bn, to the net revenue of companies across the energy sector
around 67pc of overall receipts, down from OR11.01bn in including power utilities and integrated oil companies based
2022, when it made up 77pc of the total. in the country, was approved by its parliament and came
Its overall 2023 revenue forecast comes in at around 5pc, into force on 1 January.
down on Oman's 2022 budget figure, and down by a more By Jonathan Gleave
significant 29pc from the OR14.23bn it actually received last
year. The finance ministry originally put expected revenues Zenith buys OMV's Yemen assets as war drags
at a higher OR11.65bn in the preliminary budget that was One of Yemen's largest upstream investors, Austria's OMV, has
issued on 20 December. It did not explain the revision. sold out of the country, where the political situation remains
Oman’s 2022 budget revenues outperformed expecta- shrouded in uncertainty. Talks between warring factions have
tions on a combination of higher crude output, as permitted stalled over disagreement on payments of public sector wages.
by the Opec+ agreement to which the sultanate is a signa- London-listed independent Zenith Energy said today that
tory, and markedly higher global oil prices, particularly since its Zenith Netherlands business has agreed to buy OMV Ye-

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 35 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news

men for around $21.6mn. Zenith Energy holds a 49pc stake in US readies 2023 regulatory push on climate
Zenith Netherlands, with the rest held, as of today, by Hong President Joe Biden is set to pivot to a regulatory focus this
Kong based Hingbo Industries. year to support his climate ambitions, after a two-year push
Zenith will inherit Block S-2, Block 3 and Block 70 from to get much of his agenda through the US Congress while
OMV. The Austrian-based company holds a 44pc stake in Democrats held a majority.
Block S-2, where crude production was 7,400 b/d. The upcoming regulations include a plan to finalize
OMV was the last sizeable international oil company op- first-time methane emission limits for oil and gas facilities
erating in Yemen, but the country accounted for very little and to propose new climate regulations for power plants.
of the 1.1mn bl it produced in 2021. The administration also wants to limit flaring by oil and gas
Yemen has been mired in a civil war since the Iran- operators on federal land and more clearly consider climate
backed Houthi rebels took over the capital, Sana'a, in 2014, change in federal environmental reviews.
eventually forcing the UN-recognized president Abd Rabbo The flurry of action on climate-related regulations comes
Mansour Hadi's government to flee the country. after two years during which the administration's pace of work
The war turned into a proxy regional conflict in 2015 was slower than climate activists were anticipating. Some of
when Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened militarily on the upcoming rules had risked upsetting Democrats whose
behalf of the Hadi government, and Iran backed the Houthi votes were to include climate spending in last year's Inflation
movement. Reduction Act and 2021's bipartisan infrastructure law.
Yemen's crude production collapsed soon after the start But with Republicans set to take control of the US House
of the civil war, and is at around 50,000-60,000 b/d, accord- of Representatives starting today and slim chances for new
ing to latest figures from the BP Statistical Review of World climate legislation, the Biden administration should have
Energy. It was around 170,000 b/d in 2011-13. considerably more wiggle room to finish up regulations
A UN-brokered April 2022 armistice broke down in Octo- focused on climate change and energy, particularly with the
ber as negotiations failed between Yemen's battling sides. recent passage of a $1.7 trillion spending bill that will fund
One sticking point in negotiations has been the mechanism federal agencies through 30 September.
for payment of civil servant salaries. The truce also resulted The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will be
in the reorganisation of the UN-recognised government into responsible for much of the climate-related regulations. EPA
an eight-member presidential council, and the sidelining of plans to roll out its proposal to reduce CO2 emissions from
Hadi in favour of council chair Rashad Muhammad al-Alimi. power plants in March, the same month it wants to unveil a
He reaffirmed on 1 January a commitment to pay public plan to limit greenhouse gas and conventional air pollutants
sector salaries and rebuild state institutions. from cars and trucks sold starting in model year 2027.
"It will be a year of fulfilling the promise of improving servic- In May, EPA intends to finalize a rule that will require oil
es and establishing institutions in a historical battle for freedom, and gas facilities to cut methane emissions. EPA next year
dignity, our national culture and Arab identity," al-Alimi said. also is scheduled to begin to review — and possibly tighten
Al-Alimi's announcement is a break from a statement — the stringency of national ambient air quality standards
made in early December that his government would not be for ground-level ozone and particulate matter.
able to pay salaries. A Houthi drone attack on oil infrastruc- At the US Interior Department, the administration is
ture hampered the council's ability to export oil, a vital preparing to finish this year new requirements for oil and gas
source of revenue. facilities on federal land to reduce natural gas flaring. The
However, Al-Alimi did not clarify whether he has acqui- White House is separately preparing to propose new stan-
esced to Houthi demands to pay salaries according to a 2022 dards for reviews under the National Environmental Policy
payroll that contains employees working for Houthi-run state Act, with a goal to incorporate a more exhaustive analysis of
institutions, or if the commitment is restricted to public climate change in decisions such as whether to open more
servants in government-held areas. federal areas to oil and gas leasing.
Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam told the Climate change is also set to be a focus at independent
Houthi-run Al Masirah TV on 1 January that efforts to restart federal agencies led by Biden appointees. The US Securities
peace negotiations must be based on disbursing employee and Exchange Commission is preparing to finalize require-
salaries from oil and gas revenue. ments for publicly traded companies to disclose more
By Bachar Halabi information on climate-related risks. The US Federal Energy

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 36 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news

Regulatory Commission is also trying to scrutinize climate opment. House Republicans are largely united in opposing
in the permitting of natural gas pipelines, although the Biden's energy policies, but some conservative critics say
agency's pending 2-2 split is likely to delay any changes. McCarthy has been too cooperative with Democrats.
Even regulations without an explicit climate focus are ex- Republicans are separately planning for the House to
pected to have an effect on climate. EPA is preparing concurrent vote on organizational rules that would require House com-
work on regulations that would require coal-fired power plants to mittees to submit oversight plans and end remote voting by
reduce conventional air emissions and water pollution. Aligning members, among other changes. The rules would also create
the timing of those rules is expected to cause more coal plants a panel to investigate competition with China and allow for
to retire because plant owners will have to decide whether to a vote on a bill restricting crude sales from the US Strategic
make all required upgrades at the same time. Petroleum Reserve.
Biden's climate agenda in 2023 will not focus exclusively Democrats criticized the proposed new rules, which they
on regulations. The administration will also be rolling out said were meant to make it easier for Republicans to cut
some of the $369bn in climate spending in the Inflation taxes for large corporations and reduce the social safety
Reduction Act, along with funding for hydrogen and carbon net. The outgoing House Rules Committee chairman James
capture from the bipartisan infrastructure law. Biden has McGovern (D-Massachusetts) said the rules package would
also said he wants to work with Congress to fast-track per- "jam through" bills outside of the standard process, includ-
mitting of energy infrastructure he says is needed to support ing a bill that would help oil companies "drill and pollute" by
climate spending. opening federal land to development.
By Chris Knight By Chris Knight

US House hits impasse in speaker vote Phillips to lead US FERC as acting chairman
The US House of Representatives has adjourned without US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) commis-
electing a new speaker, as Republicans struggle to get their sioner Willie Phillips, a Democrat, has been named the agen-
new majority to coalesce behind a single candidate. cy's acting chairman, according to a White House official.
US representative Kevin McCarthy (R-California) won the Phillips is taking the gavel from Richard Glick (D), who
most Republican support in three rounds of votes today, tak- was forced to step down after the US Senate declined to
ing 203 votes on the first ballot and 202 votes in the second confirm him to a new term. Glick's departure leaves FERC
and third ballots. But he fell short of the 218 votes he would with two Democratic commissioners and two Republican
need to be speaker if all House members vote for a candi- commissioners, creating the potential for deadlocked votes
date, leading the House to adjourn for the day. on major issues.
House Democrats unanimously voted for representa- Phillips will serve as the acting FERC chairman until "we
tive Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) as speaker over all three are able to nominate and confirm a permanent chair," the
rounds, giving him 212 votes. White House official said. President Joe Biden has yet to
Today marked the first time the House has failed to nominate a new chairman.
elect a speaker on the first ballot since 1923, highlighting FERC is responsible for permitting interstate natural gas
the challenges the new Republican majority is likely to face infrastructure such as pipelines and LNG export facilities.
in advancing legislation that would constrain President Joe The agency also manages wholesale electricity markets,
Biden's agenda. McCarthy's bid for speaker today faced op- regulates rates on oil and gas pipelines, and oversees some
position from 20 far right members, who by the third round hydroelectric facilities.
voted for US representative Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) to be the Phillips has served as a commissioner at FERC for the
next House speaker. last year and regularly joined Glick on key votes, includ-
The House will convene again on Wednesday, giving ing a draft order to revise a decades-old agency policy for
Republicans time to meet internally to debate on a path permitting natural gas infrastructure. He has also voted with
forward, such as offering new concessions or rallying behind the majority in favor of new gas infrastructure, including the
another speaker. approval of new LNG export capacity.
McCarthy, as part of his bid to be elected speaker, had Glick last week, in a letter to Biden, touted his work as
pledged to limit government spending and ramp up over- FERC chairman over the last two years to remove restric-
sight, including over Biden's policies on oil and gas devel- tions on renewable energy and expedite its connection to

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 37 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news

the electric grid. FERC will be in "good hands" with Phillips Sinochem and CNOOC, as well as private-sector refining
as acting chairman as the US uses more clean energy, Glick giant Zhejiang Petroleum and Chemical (ZPC), a source at
said in a post on Twitter. Sinochem told Argus.
By Chris Knight The latest award was higher by 46pc compared with
105mn bl in the first batch of 2022, when the government
US to back Venezuela opposition's Citgo claim was keen to lower exports as part of efforts to reduce car-
The US government will work with the Venezuelan opposi- bon emissions.
tion to uphold its claim to US refiner Citgo and the country's “The refiners' stocks are rising, as transportation fuel de-
other overseas assets despite the ouster of Juan Guaido, mand has been curbed in the fourth quarter [of 2022] along
whom Washington viewed as Venezuela's legitimate leader. with surging infection rates, although we have not run out of
Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro's government controls quotas issued in late September,” the Sinochem source said.
state-owned PdV, which owns Citgo. But Venezuela's US-based Sinochem obtained 1.93mn t of quotas, a rise of 9pc from
assets, including Citgo, are administered by an ad hoc board the first batch last year.
appointed by the members of the country's National Assembly, Quotas issued to the largest refiner Sinopec rose by 72pc
whose term expired in January 2021. The now defunct parlia- from a year earlier to 7.41mn t. PetroChina and CNOOC ob-
ment voted on 30 December to dissolve the interim presidency, tained 5.96mn t and 1.76mn t, compared with 4.21mn t and
a post that Guaido occupied since January 2019. 1.18mn t in the first batch of 2022.
Despite Guaido's dismissal, the US will continue to recog- ZPC’s first-batch quotas rose from 1.34mn t to 1.67mn t this
nize the 2016-2021 National Assembly as the only legitimate year. Quotas issued to Norinco and China National Aviation Fuel
institution in Venezuela, rather than Maduro's government, (CNAF) were around 200,000t and 60,000t, respectively.
the State Department said today. The US will work with the Private-sector refiner Shenghong was not granted any quo-
National Assembly as it decides how to administer Venezu- tas, despite applying for them, a source said. Shenghong started
ela's overseas assets, the State Department said. operations at its 320,000 b/d Lianyungang refinery in late No-
Citgo, with 770,000 b/d in capacity at three US refiner- vember. The refinery was running at 70pc capacity in December,
ies, is facing an uncertain future because of competing own- with an oil product yield of 30pc, Argus surveys show.
ership claims from PdV and the opposition-appointed board, China plans to export 3.2mn t of oil products in January,
as well as legal action in US courts that could result in the lower than the planned level of 5mn t/month in the fourth
company being put on the auction block to pay billions of quarter of 2022, as these shipments had been scheduled be-
dollars of debt accrued by Caracas in the past. fore the first batch of 2023 quotas was issued. Stronger mar-
President Joe Biden's administration in December partially gins in global markets following Russia's invasion of Ukraine
relaxed the US sanctions regime against Venezuela, allowing in late February 2022 could encourage China to temporarily
Chevron to import into the US Venezuelan crude produced at set aside its net zero target and encourage exports of oil
the joint ventures the US major operates with PdV. products, with Europe set to impose an embargo on Russian
But further sanctions relief is tied to the outcome of oil product supplies from 5 February this year.
talks between Maduro and his opposition on holding free and China produced a record high of 9.12mn b/d of clean oil
fair presidential and parliamentary elections in 2024. products in November 2022, compared with 8.8mn b/d in
By Haik Gugarats October and 8.71mn b/d in November 2021, National Bureau
of Statistics (NBS) data show. Diesel output rose to a record
China raises oil product quotas high of 4.73mn b/d in November 2022. China has expanded
China has issued 18.99mn t of oil product export quotas its diesel exports in recent years as the Covid-19 pandemic
in its first batch for this year, up by almost 50pc from a has hit the domestic real estate sector. Diesel exports hit a
year earlier, because of domestic oversupply and a push to 17-month high in November last year, as Europe is short of
increase profits. the fuel after western countries decided to cut oil product
The commerce ministry (MoC) granted the quotas, imports from Russia.
equivalent to around 154mn bl of gasoline, diesel and The arbitrage for diesel exports from Bohai bay in China
kerosine, to domestic refiners on 30 December 2022. Quotas to the Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA) hub was $10/bl
were awarded to state-controlled firms Sinopec, PetroChina, on 30 December, encouraging Chinese refiners to export.

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 38 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news

Poland's PKN refining margin fell in Dec sian state-controlled Rosneft that expires this month. PKN
Polish integrated PKN Orlen's model refining margin fell for will continue to honour its 48,000 b/d contract with Russia's
a second month in a row in December, as its crude mix dis- Transneft for supplies through the Druzhba pipeline that
count against Brent stayed fairly steady. runs until 2024, unless there are EU or Poland sanctions on
The margin — which is a model figure based on Brent pipeline crude imports from Russia.
crude prices and the typical product yield of the firm's By Tomasz Stepien
refineries including the 210,000 b/d Gdansk plant it acquired
earlier this year — fell to $14.3/bl in December from $19.9/ Isab crude supplies fall after EU ban
bl in November. It remained strongly higher than $4.7/bl in Crude deliveries to Lukoil's 320,000 b/d Isab refinery in Italy
December 2021. declined to a 16-month low in December, when the plant
The margin was $22.0/bl in the fourth quarter, up from took non-Russian crude for the first time since April.
$16.4/bl in third quarter although down from the record high Isab, located at Priolo on Sicily, received 150,000 b/d
$26.2/bl in the April-June period. of crude in December, down from 280,000 b/d the previous
PKN's crude feedstock mix discount against Brent was month. Last month's deliveries included 45,000 b/d of CPC
$6.3/bl, a slight decline from $6.7/bl in November. PKN said Blend, 35,000 b/d each of Kazakh-supplied Urals — now des-
the share of Russian Urals crude in its mix will fall to 10pc ignated as Kebco — and Egyptian Qarun, 20,000 b/d of BTC
this year as it will not renew a 72,000 b/d contract with Rus- Blend and 15,000 b/d of Algerian Saharan Blend.
Priolo was running at its highest rate in five years for
much of 2022 when deliveries averaged 240,000 b/d, tem-
Announcement pered by lower volumes in the first quarter and December.
Since April Lukoil had been receiving only Russian crude —
Argus Sour Crude Index (“ASCI”) Urals and Arctic Varandey Blend.
Proportional assessment The all-Russian slate was prompted by the impact of Rus-
Following the end of the fourth trading quarter of 2022 sia's invasion of Ukraine, which left Lukoil facing difficulties
and in accordance with the ASCI price methodology, buying non-Russian crude. The EU ban on Russian seaborne
Argus has revised the proportionality assigned to Mars, crude imports from 5 December means Russian crude sup-
Poseidon and SGC to be used in the event that the plies are no longer an option.
combined volume minimum of 6,000 b/d is not met in Delivery momentum at the start of 2023 appears weak.
any given trade day. The latest proportional assessment A 730,000bl cargo of CPC Blend is close to the refinery's
values are based on the volume of trade over the last six southern berth at Santa Panagia. But no other tankers are
trade months and will be applicable for the next three
trade months starting 28 November 2022 and ending 24
February 2023. Each grade has been assigned the follow- Announcement
ing percentage values:
Argus successfully completes annual Iosco
assurance review
„„ Mars: 70pc
Argus has completed the 11th external assurance review
„„ Poseidon: 15pc
of its price benchmarks covering crude oil, oil products,
„„ SGC: 15pc
LPG, chemicals, thermal and coking coal, natural gas,
biofuels, biomass, metals, fertilizers and agricultural
A table containing a history of the proportional assess-
markets. The review was carried out by professional ser-
ment values can be found in the ASCI price methodol-
vices firm PwC. Annual independent, external reviews of
ogy, which is available at http://www.argusmedia.com/
oil benchmarks are required by international regulatory
asci. If you have any questions or would like to comment
group Iosco’s Principles for Oil Price Reporting Agencies,
on these changes, please contact Gustavo Vasquez at
and Iosco encourages extension of the reviews to non-oil
[email protected] and (713) 968-0014,
benchmarks. For more information and to download the
or Amanda Smith at [email protected] and
review visit our website https://www.argusmedia.com/
(713) 968-0013.
en/about-us/governance-compliance

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 39 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

iNDUSTRY news

signalling arrival. time the US grade has topped Sarroch's intake.

Urals accounted for by far the largest proportion of It also took 35,000 b/d of Brazilian crude, 30,000 b/d
crude delivered last year — 125,000 b/d on average with sup- each of Etame from Gabon and Iraqi Basrah Medium, 20,000
plies at over 145,000 b/d since April. Deliveries of the grade b/d each of Sudan's Nile Blend, Aseng from Equatorial
in 2021 were just 5,000 b/d. Varandey Blend deliveries were Guinea, Lokele from Cameroon, Azeri BTC Blend and Libyan
close to 85,000 b/d in April-December. Bouri, 15,000 b/d of Nigeria's EA and the remainder a small
Isab received 165,000 b/d of crude in 2021 and 190,000 delivery of Tunisian Zarzaitine.
b/d in 2019, before the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. In There was a significant shift in the refinery's intake in
recent years Lukoil has not run Priolo at capacity, and tried 2022, as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and Saras' ties
unsuccessfully to sell the plant in 2017-2018. This year Lukoil with Trafigura changed the slate. Imports of Basrah Medium
has held inconclusive talks about a potential sale of Isab to doubled to 30,000 b/d, which Saras pinned on Chinese and
US private equity fund Crossbridge Energy. It is unclear if Indian buying of discounted Russian Urals that freed up Basrah
discussions continue. cargoes. Rising intake of Basrah Medium meant a fall in Saras'
By Adam Porter use of Iraqi Kirkuk, which fell to 15,000 b/d from 45,000 b/d.
Supplies of Azeri BTC Blend averaged 40,000 b/d last
Italy Sarroch refinery slate widened in Dec year, down from 60,000 b/d in 2021. Outgoing chief execu-
Italian refiner Saras received less crude at its 300,000 b/d tive Dario Scaffardi decried "hysterical" costs of light Azeri
Sarroch refinery on Sardinia in December, but the slate was grades. WTI averaged 15,000 b/d and the largest supplier
particularly wide. was Libya with 45,000 b/d, comprising Esharara, Amna,
Argus tracking shows Saras received 270,000 b/d in the Bouri, Zueitina and Sarir grades.
month, down from 295,000 b/d in November. Imports were Angola's Dalia, Pazflor and Clov amounted to 30,000 b/d
255,000 b/d in 2022, tempered by maintenance in October up sharply from 2,500 b/d in 2021, partly a result of rising
and in February-April including on crude distillation units, Urals intake in China and India and also the effect of the
petrochemicals units and a visbreaker. Covid-19 pandemic on Chinese demand. Sarroch will soon
In keeping with recent years the plant does not appear receive 900,000 bl of niche Angolan grade Palanca.
to have run at capacity for any great period. Argus assessed Sarroch's December imports at a weighted
Sarroch received 11 crude grades in December, the most average gravity of 30.7°API and 1pc sulphur content, compared
in five years. This was probably aided by its deepening rela- with 31.6°API and 1.1pc sulphur in November. The slate aver-
tionship with trading firm and shareholder Trafigura, which aged 32.6°API and 0.9pc sulphur in 2002, heavier than 34°API and
has helped Saras access US WTI and south American grades. 0.9pc in 2021. Scaffardi said Saras bought "heavier heavy crudes."
December imports included 50,000 b/d of WTI, the first By Adam Porter

Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Page 40 of 41

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)
Argus Crude Issue 23-1  |  Tuesday 3 January 2023

Argus Crude Methodology

Argus Assessment Rationale Database Argus uses a precise and transparent methodology to assess
For prices used in financial benchmarks, Argus publishes prices in all the markets it covers. The latest version of the
daily explanations of the assessment rationale with Argus Crude Methodology can be found at:
supporting data. This information is available to permis- www.argusmedia.com/methodology.
sioned subscribers and other stakeholders. For a hard copy, please email [email protected], but please
Subscribers to this report via Argus Direct or MyArgus note that methodogies are updated frequently and for the lat-
may access the database here. est version, you should visit the internet site.
Other subscribers may request access here or con-
tact us by email at [email protected].

Argus Crude is published by Argus Media group

Registered office Trademark notice Publisher Customer support and sales:

Lacon House, 84 Theobald’s Road, London, WC1X 8NL ARGUS, the ARGUS logo, ARGUS MEDIA, INTEGER,  Adrian Binks [email protected]
Tel: +44 20 7780 4200 Argus Crude, other ARGUS publication titles and Chief operating officer [email protected]
ARGUS index names are trademarks of Argus Media Matthew Burkley
ISSN: 1086-2501 Limited. Visit www.argusmedia.com/Ft/trademarks for Global compliance officer London, Tel: +44 20 7780 4200
more information Jeffrey Amos Beijing, Tel: +86 10 6598 2000
Copyright notice Dubai, Tel: +971 4434 5112
Chief commercial officer
Copyright © 2023 Argus Media group Disclaimer Jo Loudiadis Hamburg, Tel: +49 40 8090 3717
All rights reserved The data and other information published herein (the
President, Oil Houston, Tel: +1 713 968 0000
All intellectual property rights in this publication and the “Data”) are provided on an “as is” basis. Argus and its
Euan Craik Kyiv, Tel: +38 (044) 298 18 08
information published herein are the exclusive property licensors (including exchanges) make no warranties,
Moscow, Tel: +7 495 232 0110
of Argus and/or its licensors (including exchanges) and express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, Global SVP editorial
Neil Fleming Mumbai, Tel: +91 22 4174 9900
may only be used under licence from Argus. Without timeliness, or completeness of the Data or fitness for
limiting the foregoing, by accessing this publication New York, Tel: +1 646 376 6130
any particular purpose. Argus and its licensors (including Editor in chief
you agree that you will not copy or reproduce or use exchanges) shall not be liable for any loss, claims or Jim Washer Paris, Tel: +33 (0)1 53 05 96 70
any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, damage arising from any party’s reliance on the Data Riga, Tel: + 371 6739 2220
single prices or any other individual items of data) in any and disclaim any and all liability related to or arising out Managing editor San Francisco, Tel: +1 415 829 4591
form or for any purpose whatsoever except under valid of use of the Data to the full extent permissible by law. Jim Kennett Sao Paulo, Tel: +55 11 3235 2700
licence from Argus. Further, your access to and use of Shanghai, Tel: +86 21 6377 0159
Editor
data from exchanges may be subject to additional fees All personal contact information is held and used in Michael Carolan Singapore, Tel: +65 6496 9966
and/or execution of a separate agreement, whether accordance with Argus Media’s Privacy Policy Tel: +44 20 7780 4305 Tokyo, Tel: +81 3 3561 1805
directly with the exchanges or through Argus. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/privacy-policy [email protected] Washington, DC, Tel: + 1 202 775 0240

Petroleum
illuminating the markets
. ®

Licensed to: Jaffar Mazin, Iraqi State Oil Marketing Company (SOMO)