Booklet - Final - High - Resolution - Vehicle Data
Booklet - Final - High - Resolution - Vehicle Data
IN THE HEAVY-DUTY
VEHICLE SEGMENT
© COPYRIGHT The material in this publication is copyrighted. Content from this discussion paper may be used
for non-commercial purposes, provided it is attributed to the source. Enquiries concerning reproduction should
be sent to the address: Mr Sharif Qamar, The Energy and Resources Institute, Darbari Seth Block, India Habitat
Centre, Lodhi, Road, New Delhi – 110 003, India
Reviewers
Mr Easwaran Narassimhan, Postdoctoral Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs,
Harvard University and Climate Policy Lab, The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Mr Shri Prakash, Former Member Traffic, Railway Board and Distinguished Fellow, TERI
Qamar S and Jamal F, 2021, Potential and impact of electrification of medium and heavy-duty vehicles.
New Delhi: The Energy and Resources Institute
Sharif Qamar, Centre for Sustainable Mobility, TERI, Darbari Seth Block, IHC Complex
Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India
Tel: +91 11 2468 2100 or 2468 2111 | Fax: +91 11 2468 2144 or 2468 2145
Email: [email protected] | Web: www.teriin.org
Table of contents
Acknowledgment ................................................................................... 5
Introduction........................................................................................... 6
Heavy duty – Long distance trucking...................................................... 8
Market assessment................................................................................. 8
India ........................................................................................................................ 10
Production and sales: MHDV....................................................................... 10
Domestic production – company-wise......................................................... 12
Domestic sales – company-wise................................................................... 12
China....................................................................................................................... 17
Production and sales: MHDV....................................................................... 17
Freight demand, energy and emissions – HDV sector............................. 19
Stock of Commercial Vehicles ............................................................................... 21
Increasing freight demand..................................................................................... 22
Freight transportation and energy consumption ................................................. 23
Freight transport and CO2 emissions..................................................................... 24
Low/Zero-carbon Technologies: HDVs................................................... 25
Initiatives to reduce emissions – India and China................................................ 25
Auto Fuel Policy............................................................................................. 25
Fuel Economy Standards.............................................................................. 27
Scrappage schemes........................................................................................ 28
Fuel taxes....................................................................................................... 29
Alternative Fuel Options: MHDV Sector...................................................... 30
Electric Road System..................................................................................... 31
Hydrogen-Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology ..................................................... 33
Focus on Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) technology.................................... 34
Conclusions............................................................................................ 38
Key suggestions for future...................................................................... 40
Battery cost and density......................................................................................... 40
Battery Disposal..................................................................................................... 41
Vehicle Manufacturing........................................................................................... 41
Learnings from China............................................................................................. 42
References.............................................................................................. 43
Endnotes................................................................................................. 44
Annexures.............................................................................................. 45
Introduction
While the transport sector generates massive arisen from the road transport sector has
positive externalities namely, enabling recorded the highest growth in the world. It
mobility and job creation, it also contributes is important to note that India’s dependence
significantly to India’s import burden, GHG on import to meet its fuel demand is as high
emissions and air pollution. Transport as 85%2.
sector accounts for the largest share in terms
of consumption of petroleum products Indian transport sector also plays a critical
in India— nearly 70% of diesel and 100% role in achieving the targets – reduce the
gasoline are consumed by the transport emissions intensity of Gross Domestic
sector (PPAC, 2014). In the last one decade, Product (GDP) by 33–35% over 2005 levels,
the use of oil by India’s transport sector has by 2030 – set under the nationally determined
risen by as much as 91%. About 90% of the contribution (NDC)3. As per TERI estimates,
total energy demand has arisen from the it is estimated that the transport sector has
road transport sector, followed by rail and a huge potential in energy savings – 40% by
air .
1
2030 – mainly on account of electrification
of vehicles and shift from private to public
As per The Energy and Resources Institute transport.
(TERI) estimates, the current total energy
demand from the transport sector is about India’s freight transport is dominated by
90 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). the road sector, with about 70% of the total
During the last two decades (between 2000 freight, in terms of net tonne km being
and 2020), India’s oil demand which has moved by road (TERI, 2015). Within road,
Source: TERI
The focus of this study is to look into discusses the HTA sector – long-distance
the current status as well as potential of road transport involving MHDVs – in detail,
electrification of MHDVs in India. It also including factors which could be considered
looks into the progress China has made in as impediments to decarbonize the transport
this particular sector. The following section sector.
250
Produc�on ('000)
200
150
100
50
0
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Source: SIAM
As per Society of Indian Automobile during the same time period. The share of
Manufacturers (SIAM), domestic sales trend domestic sales of MDVs declined from 22.4%
of MHDVs from 2011-12 to 2018-19 were in 2011-12 to 21.8% in 2018-19, while the
found quite similar to the production trend share of HDVs in domestic sales increased
for the same period. The domestic sales of from 77.6% in 2011-12 to 78.2% in 2018-19
HDVs continued to grow within the segment (Figure 2).
but the domestic sales declined for MDVs
MDVs HDVs
250
200
Sales ('000)
150
100
50
0
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Source: SIAM
200000
180000
MDVs HDVs
160000
140000
120000
Units
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Ashok SML Tata VECVs- Mahindra Trucks
Leyland Ltd. Isuzu Ltd. Motors Ltd. Eicher and Buses Ltd.
Source: SIAM
160000
140000
120000
MDVs HDVs
100000
80000
Units
60000
40000
20000
0
Ashok SML Tata VECVs- Mahindra Trucks VECVs-
Leyland Ltd. Isuzu Ltd. Motors Ltd. Eicher and Buses Ltd. Volvo
Source: SIAM
Tata Motors dominates the MHDV market in see that the share of Tata Motors and VECVs-
India with about 53% market share in terms Eicher increased by around 2% each, while
of total sales. As indicated in Figure 5, other the share of Ashok Leyland and VECVs-
key commercial vehicle manufacturers are Volvo decreased by 4% and 1%, respectively,
Ashok Leyland, Volvo-Eicher, and M&M. We in the last five years.
VECVs-Eicher
Ashok Leyland Ltd. 14%
29% Mahindra Trucks and
Buses Ltd.
3%
VECVs-Volvo
1%
China’s MHDV market has been growing at a China had MHDV sales of 1.7 million in 2012
rapid pace with an average annual increase of and almost 2 million in 2013; this dropped
5.7% by the year 2014. It has a comparatively to 1.8 million and 1.3 million in 2014 and
higher number of manufacturers as compared 2015, respectively. China’s HDV market
to India. The size of the trucks is increasing began to recover in 2016, and by 2017, total
with increased power and displacement with sales returned to the same level as 2013. The
a good efficiency performance and that is decline in MHDV sales during 2014 and 2015
leading to a good market share for China. The is a well-documented consequence of the
engines for these sectors are mostly supplied broader economic turmoil during that period
by domestic OEMs. The fuel consumption (Allen, 2015).
limits in the proposed Stage 3 standards was
a worthy step for controlling the efficiency Diesel engines dominated the conventional
gap but longer-term measures are required HDV market in China during the evaluation
to ensure the best fuel efficiency levels. period, accounting for over 95% of HDV
Advancement in the technologies resulted sales. Still, natural gas powertrains have had
in great potential to improve fuel efficiency a consistent market presence throughout
of China’s HDV sector and this may result the past years, peaking in 2014, when they
in reduction of fuel consumption by 35% to represented 5% of new HDV sales. The
45% compared with the Stage 311 limits by penetration of gasoline powertrains in the
2030 (Karali, et al., 2017). HDV segments is negligible.
1.2
1.0
Million units
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Tsinghua University, China
Sales in the different vehicle segments were Pierre-Louis, & Rodriguez, 2021).
largely dominated by a few GVW categories.
Straight trucks were mostly concentrated at In the Chinese market, FAW Group
GVWs of around 5 tonnes, which exemplifies dominated the sales market with 22% shares
how important small straight trucks 12
are in the year 2017 with 300% growth during
within the regulatory category. Similarly, the last half decade, JAC Motors sealed the
GVWs around 5 tonnes were also a large second position, with 19% share keeping
number of the sales of coaches and dump its sales growing at the similar pace as the
trucks. Most tractor-trailers were gathered overall market and Foton Motor experienced
around approximately GVW of 49 tonnes, a slight decline in the shares since last half
which is the upper limit for the total weight decade and occupied third place with 16%
of tractor-trailers in China (MIIT, 2016). of the market share. Figure 7 shows the
manufacturers in 2017, and the vehicle
According to market estimates, there were categories that represented the bulk of their
about 670 commercial vehicle manufacturers sales. Even though straight trucks were still
in China, of which eight were responsible the leading category for the majority of the
for approximately 48% of the total sales in manufacturers in 2017, the shares of tractor-
the country in 2012. Five years later, the trailers in their product portfolios increased
number of HDV manufacturers increased significantly during 2012-17 (Shiyue, Pierre-
to over 700, and the share of top eight Louis, & Rodriguez, 2021)
manufacturers increased to 51% (Shiyue,
Nanjing Automobile
Jiangling Motors
4% FAW Group
6% 22%
Foton- Daimler JV
10%
Dongfeng Motor
11%
JAC Motors
19%
>50000kg (Maximum
Tractors
Auman total weight in use) | ISGe4-460 | ISGe5-360 Diesel
Trucks
30000 kg | 32000 kg
BAIC
Uroair R
Super Trucks 16000 kg | 18000 kg 4.5L | 5.9L Diesel
Series
Cargo Trucks Aoling 12390 kg
MDVs
Light 3500kg | 6000kg |
Not mentioned Diesel
Trucks 7000kg | 8000kg
First Auto
J6F Dump
Works (FAW) Kg. | kg. 11 L (350-420 HP) Diesel
Truck
section looks into the growth of the MHDV to grow to 10% by 2031. It is to be noted
sector, which is based on modelling exercise that the stock of LDVs has been increasing
conducted through TERI’s transport 13
and rapidly and overcame the HDVs, in absolute
MARKAL models. 14
numbers, in mid-2010s, largely on account
of growing urbanization and urban freight
Stock of Commercial Vehicles demand. By 2031, the total stock of HDVs on
Indian roads is estimated to reach 17 million,
As per estimates, the share of commercial with diesel technology dominating the entire
vehicles in total stock of vehicles on road stock in the business as usual scenario.
stood at 8% in 2021, which is expected
40
35
LDVs HDVs
30
units in million
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Figure 9: Freight traffic demand reported by the LDV and HDV segments of Road
Transport
140
000
120
000
BTKM-HDV
- BTKM-LDV
billion tonne km
100
000
80
000
60
000
40
000
20
000
0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
100%
90%
80%
70%
billion tonne km
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
9000.0
8000.0
HDV Total Freight Transport
7000.0
6000.0
5000.0
PJ
4000.0
3000.0
2000.0
1000.0
0.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Figure 12: Projected number of electric MHDVs in total sales in the business as
usual and ambitious scenario
9.00
8.00
BAU Ambi�ous
7.00
6.00
Million vehicles
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2050-51
2046-47
2047-48
2048-49
2049-50
2043-44
2044-45
2045-46
2041-42
2042-43
2039-40
2040-41
2037-38
2038-39
2034-35
2035-36
2036-37
2032-33
2033-34
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32
2025-26
2026-27
2027-28
2023-24
2024-25
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
700
600
BAU Ambi�ous
500
400
MtCO2
300
200
100
0
2026-27
2027-28
2028-29
2029-30
2030-31
2031-32
2032-33
2033-34
2034-35
2035-36
2036-37
2037-38
2038-39
2039-40
2040-41
2041-42
2042-43
2043-44
2044-45
2045-46
2046-47
2047-48
2048-49
2049-50
2050-51
2024-25
2025-26
2022-23
2023-24
2020-21
2021-22
Low/Zero-carbon Technologies:
HDVs
EOBD: European On-Board Diagnostics; * For public bus, sanitation and postal trucks, and other civil vehicle
fleets; ** For gas fuelled HDVs; ^ For public bus, sanitation and postal trucks, and other civil vehicle fleets
Africa, Australia, Canada, Central Asia, Japan, Europe, New Zealand, China,
Gasoline
Latin America, United States India
The boundary between intermediate taxation and high taxation is the price of fuel applied in Luxembourg.
In India, government is pushing for the use Electric Road System (ERS) is defined as
of LNG for inter-city bus travels. In 2020, roads that support dynamic power transfer
the Minister of Petroleum & Natural Gas from the road to vehicles while the vehicles
Figure 14: Cumulative number of LNG refuelling stations and LNG HDT Sales
3000 100000
Cumula�ve no. of site HDT Sales
2500
80000
Cumula�ve no. of LNG sta�ons
2000
No. of HDT sales
60000
1500
40000
1000
20000
500
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
n Overhead conductive: In this, charging Under this technology, power moves directly
power is continuously transferred from into the propulsion system or used to charge
overhead lines to the vehicle with the on-board batteries. As soon as the vehicle
help of a pantograph. It is best suitable moves to a non-ERS road, it switches to
for trucks and buses that are elevated battery-electric or internal combustion
enough to reach the electric lines. It also engine (ICE) mode. ERS can be beneficial in
works better with vehicles that travel in providing a much cleaner alternative options
a predetermined route, with low friction, in MHDV sector than other combustion and
so that they can stay continuously polluting engines. Extremely high upfront
connected to the lines. cost of infrastructure development, which
could range from Euro 2-2.5 million per
n Conductive Power Transfer from km21, especially for a developing country like
Road: Here, the power is transmitted to India may not be feasible. However, technical
the vehicle through rails embedded in or research works and feasibility studies need
on top of the road surface. to be conducted before postponing the
Legends: Brown = fossil fuels dominate. Yellow = direct electrification without using H2 as an energy vector,
e.g. battery electric vehicles or Li-ion batteries in electricity storage. Green = mixed paradigm with several
technologies including hydrogen.
a future prediction taking several use-cases An overall impression that develops from
for the next three decades (Hall, Spencer, this analysis is that HFCEV trucks may be
Renjith, & Dayal, 2020). a preferred option for longer routes, even
though competitiveness of this option
While TERI analysis suggested a handy depends upon vigorous cost declines in
competition between BEVs and FCEVs over several technologies and very low delivered
the long-term, the adoption of hydrogen costs of hydrogen.
fuel cell technology in transport will be
governed by reducing the recharging time, Focus on Battery-electric vehicle
rolling out high capacity charging practices, (BEV) technology
raising awareness, and reducing the weight
penalty. Apart from setting up of hydrogen BEV freight transport is much efficient and
refueling network, HFCEVs would be more cleaner than HFCEV applications. Similar to
competitive because of more rapid refueling the hydrogen-based trucks, upfront cost of
and the similar operation of an FCEV truck battery-EV is significantly high, with major
or bus versus a diesel equivalent. Key benefit compromise on payload capacity due to high
of hydrogen fuel cell technology is faster battery size. However, with high-capacity
refuelling, which could take 10-15 mins, as loading, BEVs can manage to accelerate
well as range achieved by this technology faster than diesel vehicles due to the high
reaching up to 500-800 km, based on the torque capabilities of the electric motors
fuel storage capacity. (Smajla, Karasalihović Sedlar, & Drljača,
2019).
*In addition, any other Fast / Moderate / Slow charger as approved by Department of Science & Technology
(DST) / Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) standards whenever notified.
Note: Type – 2 AC (min. 22 kW) is capable of charging electric 2-wheeler / 3-wheeler with the provision of an
adaptor
India has emerged as a hub for commercial period, accounting for more than 95.3% of
vehicles in the last few years. The HDV sales. Natural gas-based trucks have
advancement in technology in this sector has recorded consistent increase in the Chinese
shaped up the Indian commercial markets market share. FWA Group dominated
and the MHDV sector has witnessed an the MHDV sales market, followed by JAC
upsurge in production and sales by almost Motors, and Foton Motor. FAW Group being
two-folds since 2014. the top manufacturer has a wide variety
of models present in the current market
The production data from 2011-12 to 2018- followed by Dongfeng Motor, Sinotruk,
19 shows the dominance of HDVs over MDVs Shaanxi Automobile, and BAIC.
in terms of production. It also indicates the
nature of traffic India has been experiencing With regard to traffic demand, Indian road
over the same period of time. Tata Motors transport sector reported rapid growth in
Ltd. has dominated the market both in freight traffic in the last two decades, and
terms of domestic production and sales of is expected to increase in the future as well.
MHDVs. Tata Motors has the maximum By 2031, the total stock of HDVs on Indian
MHDV market share in India. Other players roads is expected to rise at a significant rate,
like Ashok Leyland, Volvo-Eicher, and with diesel technology dominating the entire
Mahindra & Mahindra have emerged as key stock in the business-as-usual scenario. The
manufacturers of MHDVs in the country. freight carried by the HDV sector, which
accounts for a small share in the total stock
On the other hand, China’s MHDV of vehicles, has been increasing rapidly and
market has a comparatively large number is expected to increase at a good pace in the
of manufacturers and is much more future as well.
consolidated. The engines for these sectors
are mostly supplied by domestic OEMs. The Over the years, the dominant share of the
size of the trucks is increasing with increased road sector in freight transportation has
power and displacement with a good driven the demand for energy consumption.
efficiency performance and that is leading Within road transport, the HDV segment
to a good market share for both China and accounts for about three-fourths of the
India. total energy consumed on account of the
movement of total freight. According to
Diesel engines dominate the conventional ambitious scenario estimates undertaken by
HDV market in China during the evaluation TERI, CO2 emission from the MHDV freight
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dependence-121010100001_1.html
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33); accessed on April 25, 2019
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6. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.05974.pdf
7. VECV-Eicher in 16-40.2 tonnes segment and VECV-Volvo in > 49 tonne segment
8. A self-propelled wheeled vehicle, designed primarily to transport goods and heavy equipment.
9. Intermediate and Light Commercial Vehicle.
10. Truck (usually 10-wheeler) made-up of two sections joint together, a tractor and a trailer to carry heavy loads.
11. Key elements of the Stage 3 standard are:
• Similar to the Stage 2 National Standard, the Stage 3 standard sets fuel consumption limits following a step function, using
gross vehicle weight to segment each vehicle type.
• The Stage 3 standard tightens vehicle fuel consumption limits for tractors, trucks, dump trucks, coaches, and city buses by
an average of 12.5% to 15.9% compared to Stage 2 limits, and by an average of 21.7% to 27.2% compared to Stage 1 limits.
• When comparing Stage 2 and 3 standards, the largest percent reduction comes from city buses with GVW 3.5-4.5 tonnes,
tightened by 17.9%, and the smallest percent reduction comes from coach buses with GVW 14.5-16.5 tonnes, tightened by
10.7%.
12. A type of truck, that has all its axles attached to a single frame.
13. In TERI’s transport model, medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicles are clubbed into one category ‘HDVs’
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16. Sales and registration of in-stock China 5 LDVs are allowed in regions that have not yet adopted China 6 until January 1, 2021.
By April 2020, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Hebei, Henan, Guangdong, Shandong, Hainan, Anhui, Zhejiang, and
Jiangsu, as well as central cities of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, and Neimenggu, had all implemented China 6.
17. The Indian OEMs have to report an annual fleet level fuel efficiency summary for monitoring purpose. Under CAFE Phase I,
CO2 emission target of 130 gm/km has been set by 2022-23. The overall aim is to improve fuel efficiency of on road vehicles
by 35% by 2030.
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23. Transport Nagar is place within/outside a city with offices of transporters, workshops, small warehouses, transhipment of
goods from bigger to smaller vehicles, etc.
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Truck rentals on trunk routes for multi-axle truck carrying 18-19 tonne payload (full round
trip) - August 2021
Source: IFTRT