Decision Science (DS)

UNIT :1
1.1 Introduction to Decision Science
Q1. What is decision Science? Enumerate the role of decision science in decision-making.
Q2. What is Decision Making? Discuss the role of quantitative techniques in decision
science.
1.2 Transportation Models
Q1. Define the Transportation Model. List out the different types of transportation models.
Q2. Explain the initial basic feasible solutions to a transportation problem. Also, define the
optimum solution to a transportation problem.
Q3. Define the need for dummy rows and columns. Also, discuss the concept of the condition
of degeneracy.
Q4. Find the initial feasible solution by North West Corner Method, Least Cost Method, and
Vogel’s Approximation method of the following transportation problem.
from To Allahabad Bangalore Chennai Supply
Mumbai 5 4 3 100
Ernakulum 8 4 3 300
Faridabad 9 7 5 300
Demand 300 200 200

Q5. Solve the transportation problem to find the optimal solution.

W1 W2 W3 W4 Supply
P1 190 300 500 100 70
P2 700 300 400 600 90
P3 400 100 400 200 180
Demand 50 80 70 140

Q6. The manufacturer has distribution centers located in Agra, Allahabad, and Kolkatta.
These centers have available 8,4,8 units of products and outlets required the following
number of units, A=5, B= 2, C=4, D=6, and C=3. The shipping cost is given below.
Determine optimal shipping cost.
A B C D E

Agra 55 30 40 50 40

Allahabad 35 30 100 45 60

Kolkatta 40 60 95 35 30
Q7. Four petrol dealers A, B, C, and D require 50, 40, 60 and 40L of petrol respectively. It is
possible to supply 80,100 and 50L respectively. The cost of Rs for shipping each liter is
shown in the table. Find the optimum solution to the transportation problem.
Dealers

Locations A B C D

X 7 6 6 6

Y 5 7 6 7

Z 8 5 8 6

Q8. Solve the following transportation problem to find the optimum solution.

D1 D2 D3 Availability

O1 40 70 90 300

O2 12 80 30 400

O3 60 90 45 200

Requirement 300 300 300 900

Q. 9 Solve the following Transportation Problem:

A B C Supply
X 4 8 8 76
Y 16 24 1 82
Z 8 16 24 77
Demand 72 102 41
Q. 10 Solve the following Transportation Problem

Store
A B C D Supply
I 10 20 5 7 10
II 13 9 12 8 20
Warehouse

III 4 15 7 9 30
IV 14 7 1 0 40
V 3 12 5 19 50
Demand 60 60 20 10 150
150

Q. 11Solve following maximization transportation Problem by MODI Method, table

shows profit per unit at each distribution center W, X, Y & Z.

W X Y Z Supply
A 12 18 6 25 200

B 8 7 10 18 500
C 14 3 11 20 300

Demand 180 320 100 400

Q. 12 Solve the following transportation problem:

Destination
Sources Capacity
I II III IV
A 20 6 25 15 50

B 17 13 16 17 50

C 5 21 19 23 100
Demand 30 40 60 70

Q. 13 Find the initial basic feasible solution of the following transportation problem for minimizing
using Vogel’s Approximation method and optimum solution by MODI method.

D1 D2 D3 D4 Supply

0l 10 20 5 7 10
 02 13 9 12 8 20

03 4 15 7 9 30

04 14 7 1 0 40

05 3 12 5 19 50

Demand 60 60 20 10

Q. 14 Find the initial feasible solution for a given transportation matrix to reduce the cost using VAM
method and optimum solution by MODI Method.

D1 D2 D3 D4 Supply
01 5 3 6 2 19
02 4 7 9 1 37
03 3 4 7 5 34
90
Demand 16 18 31 25
90

Q. 15 A Construction Company moves material form three plants to three projects.

Project X requires 50 truckloads, project Y requires 75 and project Z require 50
truckloads. Plant A can supply 45 truck load per week plant B can supply 60 & plant C
can supply 60. Using cost information given below determines optimal transportation
schedules for the company. Transportation cost per truck load in (Rs)

To/From X Y Z
A 40 80 30
B 60 70 90
C 80 20 50

Find initial solution by using VAM and optimum solution by MODI method.

Q. 16 Find the initial basic feasible solution by VAM and optimum solution by Modi
Method.

D1 D2 D3 D4 Supply
01 23 27 16 18 30
02 12 17 20 51 40
 03 22 28 12 32 53
Demand 22 35 25 41

1.3 Assignment Problems

Q1. What is an Assignment Problem? The assignment problem is a special case of
transportation problems. Justify the statement.

Q2. Define Maximization and Minimization Assignment problems. Also, explain multiple
optimal solutions to an assignment problem.

Q3. From the following information find the allocation of tasks to subordinates to minimize
the total processing time.

Tasks Subordinates
1 2 3 4

A 16 24 25 19
B 27 26 22 24
C 19 17 16 13
D 27 24 22 18

Q4. The following matrix gives time taken in hrs. Find the optimal assignment that will
result in minimum that man hrs needed.

Men Job
A B C D

1 5 3 2 8
2 7 9 2 6
3 6 4 5 7
4 5 7 7 8

Q5. Five workers are available to work on six machines and respective cost in rupees
associated with each worker on different machines is given below. The (x) in the matrix
refers to those workers who can’t be assigned a particular machine.
 Worker Machine
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6
W1 12 3 6 X 5 9
W2 4 11 X 5 X 3
W3 8 2 10 9 7 5
W4 X 7 8 6 12 10
W5 5 8 9 4 6 X

Q6. The owner of a company has four salesmen to be assigned to five districts. The expected
profit (in Rs) thousand is given in the following table.

Salesman Districts
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5
Amol 62 78 50 101 82
Balwant 71 84 61 73 59
Charles 87 92 111 71 81
Dinesh 48 64 87 77 80

Q. 7. A marketing manager has 5 salesman and 5 sales districts considering the

capacities of the salesman and the nature of distribution. The marketing manager
estimates that, sales per month for each salesman in each district would be as follows.
For the assignment of salesman to districts that will result in maximum sales.

Districts
Workers
A B C D E

1 32 38 40 28 44

2 40 24 28 21 36

3 41 27 33 30 37

4 22 38 41 36 36

5 29 33 40 35 39

Q8.Consider a job that requires four activities – cutting, assembly, finishing and packaging.
Four workers are employed who can do all these activities. The time required by each of them
(in minutes) to perform each of the activities are as follows:
 1 2 3 4

Cutting 12 14 15 15

Assembling 21 18 18 22

Finishing 14 17 12 14

Packaging 6 5 3 6

How should the jobs be assigned to the various workers so that the total job is completed in
minimum time?

Q9. Suggest the optimum assignment for 4 salesmen to the 4 sales territories and the estimated
sales in lakh (in rupees) as follows.

Territories 1 2 3 4

Salesmen

A 10 11 15 12

B 18 17 `15 16

C 20 15 18 19

D 12 14 14 13

Q 10.In the modification of plant layout of a factory 4 new machines M1,M2,M3 and M4 are
to be installed in a machine shop. There are 5 vacant places A,B,C,D and E available. Because
of limited space M5 CAN’T BE PLACED (COST IN Rs.) at defined location which are given
in the following matrix. Find the optimum assignment.

Location A B C D E

Machine

M1 9 11 15 10 11

M2 12 9 - 10 9

M3 - 11 14 11 7

M4 14 8 12 7 8
Q11. Solve the unbalanced Assignment Problem for Minimization.

Districts A B C

Salesmen

1 10 7 8

2 8 9 7

3 7 12 6

4 10 10 8

Q 12. Solve the following problem of assigning 4 computer programmers to 4 application

required by each of them to develop the programmes is given. Find the optimal solutions.

Programmers 1 2 3 4

Programmes

A 120 100 80 90

B 80 90 110 70

C 110 140 120 100

D 90 90 80 90

Q13. Solve the following problem for maximizing production output. The data refers to the
production of an article for the given operators and machines.

Machines A B C D

Operators

1 10 5 7 8

2 11 4 9 10

3 8 4 9 7
 4 7 5 6 4

5 8 9 7 5

Q14. Solve the following assignment problem for minimization. The costs are given below.
Find all the alternative solutions if any?

1 2 3 4 5

A 15 29 35 20 38

B 21 27 33 17 36

C 17 25 37 15 42

D 14 31 39 21 40

E 19 30 40 19 18

UNIT 2: LPP, Markov Chain and Simulation

2.1 Linear Programming Problem
Q1. What is LPP? Enumerate the components of LPP.

Q2. The company wishes to produce two products (1) Walkman AM/FM/Cassette and (2)
Watch-TV. Walkman takes 4 hours of electronic work and 2 hours assembly. Watch-TV takes
3 hours electronic work and 1 hour assembly. There are 240 hours of electronic work time and
100 hours of assembly time available. Profit from a Walkman is Rs.7; profit from a Watch-TV
Rs.5. Formulate the LPP.
Q3. Product A and B can be manufactured by a company which gives profit of Rs 5 per unit
and Rs 7 per unit respectively. Each unit of A consumes 5kg of raw material and each unit of
B consumes 3 machine hours. Total raw material available is 30Kg while total machine hour
available is 18hr. Obtain the optimal product mix for profit maximization.

Q4. A firm manufactured two products, A and B, on which the profit earn per unit are Rs 3 and
Rs 4 respectively. Each product is processed in two machines M1 and M2. Product A requires
one hour processing time on machine M1 and two hours in M2 while product B requires one
hour on M1 and one hour on M2. If machine M1 is available for not more than 7hr 30minutes
while machine M2 is available for 10 hrs during any working day. Find the no. of units of
product A and B to be manufactured to get the maximum profit.

Q5. A firm produces three products. These products are processed on three different machines.
The time required manufacturing one unit of each of three products and the daily capacity of
the three machines are given below.
 Machine Machine
Capacity
(Minutes/Day)

Product 1 Product 2 Product 3

M1 2 3 2 440

M2 4 - 3 470

M3 2 5 - 430

It is required to determine the daily number of units to be manufactured for each product. The
profit per unit for product 1, 2, 3 is Rs 4, Rs 3 and Rs 6 respectively. It is assumed that all the
amounts produced are consumed in the market. Formulate the mathematical (L.P) model that
will maximize the daily profit.

Q6. A company manufactures two products, A and B. The profit per unit of A and B is Rs 60/-
and Rs 80/- respectively. The company is required to supply 200 units of product A to its
regular customers. Product A requires machining on machine M1 only and per unit of A, one
hour of M1 is required. Product B requires machine M2 only and machine hours on M2 has
enough hours to available to manufacture any number of units of product B. M1 has 400 hours
available. Product A and B both require one labor hour each and the company has 500 labor
hours available. To determine the number of units of A and B to be manufactured, satisfying
given conditions. Formulate the LPP.

Q7. The owner of winner sports wishes to determine the number of advertisements to be placed
in the three selected magazines A, B and C. His objective is to advertise in such a way that the
total exposure to the principal buyers of the expensive sports goods is maximized. The
percentages of readers of each magazine are known. Exposure in any magazine is the number
of advertisements placed multiplied by the number of principal buyers. The following data may
be used.

Magazines

A B C

Readers 1 lakh 0.6lakh 0.4lakh

Principal Buyers 15% 15% 7%
Cost/Advt. (Rs) 5,000 4,500 4,250

The budget amount at most is Rs 1 lakh for the advertisements. The owner has already decided
that magazines A will have no more than 6 advertisements and B and C will each have at least
2 advertisements. Formulate LPP for the problem.
Solution by Graphical Methods

Q.8. Solve the following LPP by graphical method.

Min Z = 3A – 2B

s.t. 5A + 5B > 25………..(i)

3A < 30 …………...(ii)

6B < 18……………(iii)

3A + 9B < 36………(iv)

where: A, B > 0

Q9. Solve the following LPP by graphical Method:

Max Z = 6X – 3Y

s.t. 2X + 2Y < 20…………(i)

6X > 12………………..(ii)

4Y > 4………………….(iii)

4X + Y < 20…………….(iv)

where: X, Y > 0

Q10. Solve the following LPP by graphical Method.

MaxZ = 5S – 5T

s.t. 3T < 18…………..(i),

4S + 4T < 40…….(ii)

2S < 14……..(iii)

6S - 15T < 30……..(iv)

3S > 9……….(v)

where: S, T > 0

Special Case # 1: Infeasible Solution

Q11. Solve the following LPP by graphical Method.

Max Z = 4X1 + 3X2

s.t. 5X1 + 5X2 < 25……………… (i)

X2 > 6………………………. (ii)

X2 < 8 ……………………… (iii)

Where: X1, X2 > 0

Special Case # 2: Unbounded Solution

Q12. Solve the following LPP by graphical Method.

Max Z = 4X1 + 3X2

s.t. 5X1 + 5X2 ≥ 25……………… (i)

X2 ≤ 6……………………….(ii)

X2 < 8 ………………………(iii)

where: X1, X2 > 0

Q13. Solve the following LPP by graphical Method.

Max Z = 4X1 + 4X2

s.t. 5X1 + 5X2 < 25 …………….(i)

X2 < 4 …………………….(ii)

X1 < 3…………………….(iii)

where: X1, X2 > 0

Q 14. Solve the following problem by graphical method.

Minimize Z = 25x+30 y

Subjected to

4x+3y≥ 60 ……………(i)

2x+3y ≥ 36…………..(ii)

x,y ≥ 0
Q 15. Solve the following problem by graphical method.

Maximize Z = 20x+50 y

Subjected to

2x+5y ≤ 60 ……………(i)

6x+3y ≤ 18…………..(ii)

x,y ≥ 0

2.2 Markov Chains

Q1. What are the Markov Chains? Explain the role of Markov Chains in the business
environment.

Q2) Consider the case where the present market shares of three brands of soft drinks A, B and
C are 60%, 30% and 10%. Also, let their transition probability matrix (based on the
shifting pattern for a year) be.
A B C
A 0.7 0.2 0.1
P= B 0.2 0.6 0.2
C 0.1 0.1 0.8

Find the market share after the first year and second year.

Q3. The market share of brand A, B and C is 50%, 30% and 20%. Customers shift brands.
Brands switching matrix every quarter is given below.

TO
A B C
From A 50% 30% 20%
B 20% 70% 10%
C 20% 20% 60%

Find market share at the end of quarter.

Q4) Market survey is made on two brands of breakfast foods A and B .Every time a customer
purchases, he may buy the same brand or switch to another brand. The transition matrix
is given below.
 To
A B
From A 0.8 0.2
B 0.6 0.4

At present 60% of people buy brand A and 40% buy brand B. Determine market shares
of brands A and B in the steady state or equilibrium state or in the long run.

Q5) A student tries to be punctual in the classes. If he is 90 percent sure to be on time the next
day. Similarly, if he is on time, then there is a 30 percent chance that he will be late on
the next day. How often, in the long run, is expected to be late for the class?

On time Late
On time 70% 30%
Late 90% 10%

Q6) Suppose that new razor blades were introduced in the market by three companies at the
same time. When they were introduced, each company had equal shares of the number,
but during the first year some changes took place, which is shown by the following
transition matrix.

A B C
A 0.9 0.03 0.07
B 0.1 0.7 0.2
C 0.1 0.1 0.8

If no changes in the buying habits of the customers occur,

i) What is the market share of the three companies at the end of the first year and
second year?
ii) What are the long –run market shares of the companies?

Q7.) A manufacturing company has a certain piece of equipment that is inspected at the end
of each day and is classified as just overhauled, good, fair or inoperative. If the piece is
inoperative, it is overhauled, a procedure that takes one day. Assume that the working
condition of the equipment follows as a Markov Chain with the transition matrix given
below.

O G F I
O 0 ¾ ¼ 0
G 0 ½ ½ 0
F 0 0 ½ ½
 I 1 0 0 0

It costs Rs 125 to overhaul a machine (including lost time) on average and Rs 75 as

production is lost if a machine is found inoperative. Using the steady state probabilities,
compute the expected per day cost of maintenance.

2.3 Simulations
Q1. What is simulation? explain the role of simulation in forecasting.
Q2. The company manufactures around 200 cars. Depending upon the availability of raw
materials and other conditions, the daily production has been varying from 196 cars to 204
cars. The probability distribution is as given below:

Production/day 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204
Probability 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.14 0.2 0.15 0.11 0.08 0.06

The finished cars are transported in a specially designed three stored lorry that can
accommodate only 200 cars. Using the following 15 random numbers 82, 89, 78, 24, 53, 61,
18, 45, 04, 23, 50, 77, 27, 54 and 10. Simulate the process to find out.

(i) What will be the average number of cars waiting in the factory?

(ii) What will be the number of empty spaces in the lorry?

Q 3) The rainfall distribution in monsoon season is as follows

Rain in Cm: 0 1 2 3 4 5
Frequency: 50 25 15 5 3 2

Simulate the rainfall for 10 days using following random numbers: 67, 63, 39, 55, 29, 78, 70,
06,78,76. Find the average rainfall.
Q4) At a bus terminal every bus should leave with the driver. At the terminus they keep 2
drivers as reserved if anyone on scheduled duty is sick and could not come. Following is the
probability that the driver will become sick.

Number of Sick Drivers 0 1 2 3 4 5

Probability 0.3 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.13 0.12
Simulate for 10 days and find utilization of reserved drivers. Also find out how many days and
how many buses cannot run because of the non-availability of drivers. Use the following
random numbers: 30, 54, 34, 72, 20, 02, 76,74,48,22.

Q5. A confectioner sells confectionary items. Past data of demand per week in hundred
kilograms with frequency is given below:
 Demand per week (in 0 5 10 15 20 25
hundred Kg)
Frequency 2 11 8 21 5 3

Generate the demand for the next 10 weeks using random numbers given below. Also
find average demand per week. Random Numbers from table of random numbers 78,
99, 43, 62, 44, 02, 67, 32, 54, 75.

Q6) In cricket season for a one day match a bowler bowled 50 balls. The frequency
distribution of runs scored per ball is given below:

Runs/Ball 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of balls 15 10 10 4 8 1 2

Simulate the system for 2 overs and find the average runs per 2 overs by him. Use the following
random numbers: 88,03,05,29,28,48,65,19,55,17,37,82.

Unit 3: Probability and Queuing Theory

3.1 Probability and Probability Distribution
Q1. What is probability? enumerate the role of probability in business environment.
Q2. Write Short notes on
a) Random Experiment
b) Sample Space and Events
c) Equally Likely Events
d) Mutually Exclusive Events
e) Independent and dependent events
Q3. Explain Discrete and continuous probability distributions with appropriate examples.
Q4. The box contains 4 white and 6 black balls. What is the probability that the ball drawn is
white or black?
Q5 A worker is to look after the three machines. In any given hour, the probability of the first
machine not requiring worker’s attention is 0.8, for the second machine it is 0.85 and for the
third machine it is 0.75. What is the probability that none of the machines will require the
worker’s attention during a given hour?

Q6. What is the chance that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays?
Q 7. A pair of dice is thrown. Find the probability of getting the sum i) More than nine ii)
multiple of 3.
8. A box contains 8 white and 3 red balls. If two balls are drawn at random, what is the chance
that i) both are red ii) both are white iii) One is of each color.
Q 9. A committee of four has to be formed among 3 economists, 4 engineers, 2 statisticians
and 1 doctor.
i) What is the probability that each of four professions is representing in the committee?
ii) What is the probability that the committee consists of the doctor and at least one
economist?
Q 10. If a pair of dice is thrown, find the probability that sum is neither 7 nor 11.
Q 11. The probability of a student passes a statistics test is 2/3 and the probability that he
passes both statistics test and economics test is 14/45. The probability that he passes at least
one test 4/5. What is the probability that he passes the economics test?

Q12. The probability that a contractor will get a white washing contract is 2/3 and the
probability that he will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the probability of getting at least
one contract is 4/5, what is the probability that he will get both the contracts?
Q13. In an examination 30% of the students have failed in Mathematics, 20% of the students
have failed in chemistry and 10% have failed in both M and C.A student is selected at
random.
i) What is the probability that the student failed in mathematics if it is known
that he has failed in chemistry.
ii) What is the probability that the student has failed either in Mathematics or in
Chemistry?
Q14. The probability of solving a problem by three students A, B, C are 2/7, 3/8 and 1/2
respectively. If all of them try independent. Find the probability that the problem is solved.
Also find the probability that the problem could not be solved. What is the probability that
the problem is solved by all the three students?
Q15. The box contains 4 red and 3 blue balls. Two drawings of 2 balls are made. Find the
probability of drawing 2 red balls and second 2 blue balls.
i) If the balls are returned to the bag after the first draw,
ii) If the balls are not returned after the first draw?

Bayes Theorem
Q16. In a factory, machines M1, M2, M3 Manufactures respective 25, 35, 40 percent of the
total output 5, 4 and 2 percent respectively, are defective bolts. One bolt is drawn at random
from the product and it is found to be defective, what is the probability that it is
manufacturing in the machine M2?
Q17. The chance that a doctor A will diagnose B correctly is 60%. The chance that a patient
will die by his treatment after correct diagnosis is 40% and the chance of death by wrong
diagnosis is 70%. A patient of doctor A who had disease B, died, what is the chance that his
disease was correctly diagnosed?
Q18. Two identical boxes contain 4 white and 3 red balls and 3 white and 7 red balls
respectively. A box is selected at random, and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball is white,
what is the probability that it is from first box?
Q19. Box A contains 2 white, and 3 red balls and box B contains 4 white and 5 red balls. One
ball is drawn at random from one of the boxes and it is red. Find the probability that it was
drawn from the box A?
Probability Distribution: Binomial, Poisson, and Normal Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Q20. 10 unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously, find the probability that there will be i)
exactly 5 heads ii) At least 8 heads iii) not more than 3 heads iv) At least one head. V) If this
exercise is carried out 50 times, how many times we can get exactly 5 heads?
Q21. The mean and variance of a Binomial distribution are 3 and 2 respectively. Find the
probability that the variant takes values i) exactly 2.ii) At most 2.
Q22. The incidence of a certain disease is such that on average, 20% of workers suffer from
it. If 10 workers are selected at random find the probability that
i) Exactly 2 workers suffer from the disease
ii) Not more than 2 workers suffer from the disease
iii) At least 9 workers suffer from the disease
Poisson Distribution
Q23. If 5% of electric bulbs manufactured by a company are defective, Use Poisson
Distribution to find the probability that in a box of 100 bulbs. i) None is defective ii) 3 bulbs
are defective iii) More than 3 bulbs are defective. (Given= e -5 = 0.007).
Q24. In a certain factory turning out razor blades, there is a small chance 1/500 for any blade
to be defective. The blades are supplied in a packet of 10. Use Poisson distribution to
calculate approximately, the number of packets containing.
i) No defectives ii) Two defectives’ blades, in a consignment of 10,000 packets.
Normal distribution
Q25. The weekly wages of 1000 workers are normally distributed around a mean of Rs 70.
and standard deviation of Rs 5. Estimate the number of workers whose weekly wages will be:
i) between Rs 70 and 72. ii) between Rs 69 and 72. iii) More than Rs. 75
iv) Less than Rs 63 v) Also estimate the lowest weekly wages of the 100 highest paid
workers.
Q26. In a sample of 1000 students, the mean of a certain test is 14 and the standard deviation
is 2.5. Assuming the distribution is normal. Find
a. How many students scored b/w 12 and 15.
b. How many scored above 18?
c. How many scored below 8.
d. How many scored 16?
Q27. Assume the mean height of soldiers to be 68.22 inches with a variance of 10.8 inches,
How many soldiers in a regiment of 1000 would you expect to be i) over 6 feet tall and ii)
below 5.5 feet.
iii) What is the percentage of soldiers having height b/w 5.5 feet and 6 feet, Assume the
height is normally distributed?

3.2 Queuing Theory

Q1. What is Queuing Theory. Explain the role and importance of queuing theory in the
decision making.

Q2. In a service department manned by one server, on average one customer arrives every 10
minutes. It has been found that each customer requires 6 minutes to be served to find out.

a) Probability that the server is idle.

b) Average queue length.

c) Average time spent by each. Customer in the system.

d) Probability that there would be 2 customers in the queue.

Q3. In a bank on average every 15 min a customer arrives to cash the cheque. The staff at
the payment counter takes 10 min to serve a customer on average.
Calculate:

a) Probability that system is busy.

b) Average Queue Length.

c) Average no of customers in the bank.

d) Average waiting time of customer in queue before service.

Q4. A person wants to hire for repairing machines which breakdown at on average rate per
hour, which following Poisson distribution. A and B two repairmen interviewed. ‘A’ charges
Rs. l00/- per hour and services breakdown machines at the rate of 6 per hour. B demands Rs.
l25/- per hour and services at an average of 8 machines per hour. Downtime of a machine costs
Rs. 25/- per hour, which repairman should be hired?

Q5. The tooth care hospital provides free dental service to the patients on every Saturday
morning. Dentist takes on an average, 2.5 minutes for a patient to get treatment and the actual
time taken is known to vary approximately exponentially around this average. The patients
arrive according to Poisson distribution with an average of 20 per hour. The administrator
officer of the hospital wants to investigate the following.
a. The fraction of the time at least dentist is idle.
b. Probability that a patient will wait for the service.
c. Expected number of patients waiting in the system
d. The average time that a patient spends at the hospital.
Q6. Vehicle arrives at Petrol pump with mean rate of 30 per hour. The time required to serve a
customer has an exponential distribution with mean of 90 seconds. Find the following.
a) Probability that Server is busy.
b) Probability that vehicle should not wait.
c) Average waiting time of a customer.
d) Average number of customers in the system
e) Average queuelength?
Q7. A self - service store employs one cashier at its counter. Nine customers arrive on as
average 5 minutes while the cashier can serve 10 customers in 5 minutes. Assuming
Poisson distribution for arrival rate and exponential distribution for service rate find:
a) Find the traffic intensity.
b) Average number of customers in the system.
c) Averagenumber of customers in queue or average queue length.
d) Average time a customer spends in the system.
e) Average time a customer waits before being served.

Q8. Arrivals at a telephone booth are Poisson. With an average time of l0minutes between one
arrival and the next. The length of a phone call is assumed to be distributed exponentially with
mean of 3 minutes.
a. What is the probability that the person arriving at the booth will have to wait?
b. Average time person spends in the system.

Q9. Patients arrive at a clinic according to poison distribution at the rate of 20 patients per hour.
Examination time per patient is exponential with mean rate of 30 per hour.
Find:
a) Find the traffic intensity.
b) What is the probability that a new arrival does not have to wait?
c) What is the average waiting time of a patient before he leaves the clinic?

Q10. The tooth care hospital provides free dental service to the patients every Saturday
morning. A Dentist takes on average 2.5 minutes for a patient to get treatment
and the actual time taken is known to vary approximately exponentially around
this average. The patients arrive according to Poisson distribution at an average
of 20 per hour. The administrator officer of the hospital wants to investigate the
following.
a. The fraction of the time at least dentist is idle.
 b. Probability that a patient will wait for the service.
c. Expected number of patients waiting in the system.
d. The average time that a patient spends at the hospital.

Q10. A TV repairman finds that the time spent on his jobs has an exponential distribution
with mean 30 minutes. If he repairs in order in which they come in, and if the arrival of sets
is approximately Poisson with an average of l0 per 8-hour day. What is the repairman's
expected idle time each day? How many jobs on average are waiting to be completed?

Q 11. In a railway marshalling yard, goods trains arrive at a rate of 30 trains per day. If the
inter arrival time follows Poisson exponential distribution and the service time distribution
is exponential with an average of 36 minutes per train, calculate:
a) The average time thetrain spends in theyard.
b) The mean queue size.
c) Probability that the arriving train does not have to wait.

Q12. The tooth care hospital provides free dental service to the patients on every Saturday
morning. Dentist takes on an average, 2.5 minutes for a patient to get treatment and the
actual time taken is known to vary approximately exponentially around this average. The
patients arrive according to Poisson distribution with an average of 20 per hour. The
administrator officer of the hospital wants to investigate the following.
a) The fraction of the time at least dentist is idle.
b) Probability that a patient will wait for the service.
c) Expected number of patients waiting in the system
d) The average time that a patient spends at the hospital.

Unit 4: CPM & PERT and Sequencing Model

4.1 CPM and PERT
Q1. What is project Management? Enumerate the role of CPM and PERT in Project
Management.
Q2. List down the difference between CPM and PERT.

Q3. Draw the network diagram, find the critical path and total project duration.
Activity Duration
1-2 10
2-3 4
3-4 6
3-5 5
4-6 12
5-6 9
5-7 12
 6-8 15
7-8 6
8-9 5
9-10 4

Q4. An assembly is to be made from two parts A and B. Both parts must be turned on a lathe
and B must be polished whereas, A need not be polished the sequence of activities together
with their predecessors is given below. Draw the network diagram.
Activity Predecessor Activity
A (Open work order) None
B (Get material for A) A
C (Get material for B) A
D (Turn A on lathe) B
E (Turn B on lathe) B, C
F (Polish B) E
G (Assemble A and B) D, F
H (pack) G

Q5. Draw the network diagram, Find the critical path and total project duration.

ACTIVITY PRECEDING DURATION DAYS

A - 13
B A 6
C B 10
D C 9
E B 11
F E 10
G D,F 8
H E 6
I H 7
J G,I 14
K J 18

Q6. Draw the network diagram, find the critical path, and total project duration.

ACTIVITY PRECEDING DURATION DAYS

A - 7
B - 20
C - 33
D A 18
E A 20
 F B 9
G C 9
H D 8
I E, F 4
Q7. Draw the network diagram, find the critical path and total project duration.

ACTIVITY PRECEDING DURATION

A - 6
B A 4
C B 7
D A 2
E D 4
F E 10
G - 2
H G 10
I J,H 6
J - 13
K A 9
L G,K 3
M I,L 5

Q8. Draw the network diagram, find the critical path and total project duration.

ACTIVITY PRECEDING DURATION WEEKS

A - 14
B A 4
C B 2
D C 1
E A 2
F E 3
G E 2
H E 4
I H,L 3
J K 12
K D,F,G 4
L J 2
M H,L 2

Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT)

Q9 a. Draw the network diagram of the following activities.

b. Calculate the expected time of each activity.

c. Identify Critical Path

d. State Project Duration

e. Find variances of activities on critical path and its standard deviation

Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

1-2 6 7 8
1-3 4 5 12
1-4 2 10 12
2-5 3 7 11
3-6 10 20 48
3-7 6 9 18
4-6 3 3 9
5-8 3 3 9
6-9 8 18 40
7-8 2 6 10
8-9 2 5 14

Q2 a. Draw network of the following activities

b. Calculate expected time of each activity.

c. Identify Critical Path

d. State Project Duration

e. Find variances of activities on critical path and its standard deviation.

Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

1-2 2 5 8
1-3 4 10 16
1-4 1 7 13
2-5 5 8 11
3-5 2 8 14
4-6 6 9 12
5-6 4 7 10
Q3. Draw the network diagram; find the critical path, total project duration, EST, LST, EFT,
LFT, Tail Slack, Head Slack, Total float, free float, and independent float of the following
activities of the project.

Activity Predecessors Activity Time (Weeks)

A - 2
B - 6
C - 4
D A 6
E B 8
F C 7

Q4. Draw the network diagram; find the critical path, total project duration, EST, LST, EFT,
LFT, Tail Slack, Head Slack, Total float, free float, and independent float of the following
activities of the project.

Activity Predecessors Activity Time (Days)

A - 10
B - 9
C A 9
D A 8
E B 7
F B 11
G D, E 5

Q5. Draw the network diagram; find the critical path, total project duration, EST, LST, EFT,
LFT, Tail Slack, Head Slack, Total float, free float and independent float of the following
activities of the project.

Activity Predecessors Activity Time (Days)

A - 4
B - 7
C - 6
D A,B 5
E A,B 7
F C,D,E 6
G C,D,E 5

Q6. Draw the network diagram, find the critical path and total project duration. Also find the
critical path duration required for project completion time with 84.13% probability. What is
the probability of project completion if only 34 days are available to complete the project?

Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic

1-2 3 6 15
1-6 2 5 14
2-3 6 12 30
 2-4 2 5 8
3-5 5 11 17
4-5 3 6 15
6-7 3 9 27
5-8 1 4 7
7-8 4 19 28
Note: A normal distribution curve covers 50%, 84.13%, 97.72% and 99.87% to its left for 0,
+1, +2 and +3 standard deviation from the mean respectively

Q7 Draw the network diagram, find the critical path, and total project duration. Also find the
critical path duration required for project completion time with 50% probability. What would
be your level of confidence to accept the project deadline of 20 weeks?

Note: A normal distribution curve covers 50%, 84.13%, 97.72% and 99.87% to its left for 0,
+1, +2 and +3 standard deviation from the mean respectively

PROJECT CRASHING
Q1. The data on normal time, and cost and crash time and cost associated with a project are
shown in the following table.

Normal Crash
Activity Time (weeks) Cost (Rs) Time (weeks) Cost (Rs)
1-2 3 300 2 400
2-3 3 30 3 30
2-4 7 420 5 580
2-5 9 720 7 810
3-5 5 250 4 300
4-5 0 0 0 0
5-6 6 320 4 410
6-7 4 400 3 470
6-8 13 780 10 900
7-8 10 1000 9 1200
4220
The indirect cost is Rs 50 per week.

(a) Draw the network diagram for the project and identify the critical path.
(b) What are the normal project duration and associated cost?
(c) Find out the total float associated with non-critical activities.
(d) Crash the relevant activities and determine the optimal project completion time and
cost.

Q2. The data on normal time, and cost and crash time and cost associated with a project are
shown in the following table.

Activity Normal Crash

 Immediate Time (Weeks) Cost (Rs’000’) Time (Weeks) Cost (Rs
Predecessor ‘000’)
A -- 10 20 7 30
B -- 8 15 6 20
C B 5 10 4 14
D B 6 11 4 15
E B 8 9 5 15
F E 5 5 4 8
G A, D, C 12 3 8 4
73,000

The indirect cost is Rs 400 per day. Find the optimum duration and the associated minimum
project cost.

4.2 Sequencing Model

Q1. What is sequencing Model? Discuss the importance of sequencing model for the
optimization of time for different jobs.
Q2. Find the sequence that minimizes the total elapsed time required to complete the
following tasks on two machines.
Tasks
A B C D E F G H I
Machines M1 2 5 4 9 6 8 7 5 4
M2 6 8 7 4 3 9 3 8 11
Q3. Find the sequence that minimizes the total elapsed time required to complete the
following tasks on two machines.
Jobs
1 2 3 4 5
Machines M1 5 1 9 3 10
M2 2 6 7 8 4
Determine a sequence of five jobs that will minimize the elapsed time T.
Q4. Find the sequence that minimizes the total elapsed time required in performing the
following jobs on three machines in the order M1M2M3. Processing times in hours is
given.
Jobs
1 2 3 4 5
M1 8 10 6 7 11
Machines M2 5 6 2 3 4
M3 4 9 8 6 5
Q5. Find the sequence that minimizes the total elapsed time required in performing the
following jobs on three machines in the order ABC. Processing times in hours is given.
Jobs
J1 J2 J3 J4 J5 J6
Machines M1 8 3 7 2 5 1
M2 3 4 5 2 1 6
M3 8 7 6 9 10 9

Q6. Find an optimal sequence for the following sequencing problems of four jobs and five
machines when passing is not allowed of which processing time (in hours) is given below.

Machines
M1 M2 M3 M4 M5
Jobs A 7 5 2 3 9
B 6 6 4 5 10
C 5 4 5 6 8
D 8 3 3 2 6

Q7. Find an optimal sequence for the following sequencing problems of four jobs and five
machines when passing is not allowed of which processing time (in hours) is given below.

Jobs
A B C D E
Machines M1 11 13 9 16 17
M2 4 3 5 2 6
M3 6 7 5 8 4
M4 15 8 13 9 11
Unit 5: Decision Theory and Game Theory
5.1 Decision Theory
Q1. What is Decision theory? Explain decision making with certainty and decision-making
uncertainty with examples.
Q2. Consider the following payoff table:
Acts State of Nature
S1 S2 S3 S4
A1 -1 -2 5 4
A2 0 1 7 9
A3 -2 -3 8 5

Find the best act under following criterion:

• Maximin
• Minimax
• Maximax
• Minimin
• Minimax Regret
• Laplace Criterion

Q3. Consider the following payoff table representing costs in rupees:

Payoff Table
Acts State of Nature
S1 S2 S3 S4
A1 4 7 6 5
A2 3 2 8 1
A3 9 5 3 6

Find the best act under following criterion:

• Maximin
• Minimax
• Maximax
• Minimin
• Minimax Regret
• Laplace Criterion

Q4. Find the best act by Hurwicz Criterion from the following payoff table:

Table Payoff Table

Acts State of Nature

S1 S2 S3 S4
A1 -2 -3 4 3
 A2 -1 0 6 7
A3 -3 -4 9 5
(Take the coefficient of optimism= α =0.7)

Q5. The layoffs of the three acts X, Y, Z and the states of nature L, M, N are given below.
Payoff (Rupees) Table

State of nature Acts

X Y Z
L -20 -50 200
M 200 -100 -50
N 400 600 300

The probabilities of the states of nature are 0.3, 0.4 and 0.3 respectively. Calculate the Expected
Monetary Values (EMV) for the above data and select the best act.). Find EVPI and VPI.
Also, select the best act under expected opportunity loss (EOL) criterion.
Q 6. Consider the following profit table along with the given probabilities of each state:

States

N1 N2 N3

Strategies Probabilities of States

0.3 0.6 0.1

S1 20 80 -9

S2 25 15 10

S3 40 -10 12

Find EMV, EVPI and VPI. Also, select the best act under expected opportunity loss (EOL)
criterion.
Q7. Given is the following payoff matrix:

State of nature Acts

Probability X Y Z
L 0.3 -120 -80 100
M 0.5 200 400 -300
N 0.2 260 -260 600
Using the expected monetary values (EMV) decide which act can be chosen as the best. Also
find EVPI and VPI. Also, select the best act under expected opportunity loss (EOL) criterion.

5.2 Game Theory

Q1. What is Game Theory? Explain types of strategies in a Game.

Q2. Enumerate the relevance of saddle point. Explain dominance method of Game Theory.

Q3. Solve the following Game and find the optimal strategies of both the players. Also find
value of the game.,

Firm B

Strategies B1 B2 B3

Firm A A1 2 8 4

A2 7 10 6

Q4. Solve the following Game.

Firm B

Strategies B1 B2

Firm A A1 3 5

A2 4 1

Q5. Solve the following game by dominance method.

Strategies B1 B2 B3

A A1 1 2 7

A2 6 7 2

A3 6 6 1

Q6. Solve the following game by using the principle of dominance.

 I II III IV V VI
1 4 2 0 2 1 1
2 4 3 1 3 2 2
3 4 3 7 -5 1 2
4 4 3 4 -1 2 2
5 4 3 3 -2 2 2
Q7. Solve the following game.

PLAYER B
P I II III IV
L I 3 2 4 0
A II 3 4 2 4
Y A III 4 2 4 0
E IV 0 4 0 8
R

Q8. Solve the following game.

P PLAYER B
L 1 2 3 4 5
A A I 1 3 2 7 4
Y II 3 4 1 5 6
E III 6 5 7 6 5
R IV 2 0 6 3 1

Q9. Solve the following Game.

P
L PLAYER B
A I II III IV
Y A I 6 4 8 0
E II 6 8 4 8
R III 8 4 8 0
IV 0 8 0 16

Q 10. Solve the following game.

B
A 1 7 2 4
0 3 7 8
5 2 6 10
Q11. Solve the following game.

Y
-6 10 11
X -1 -2 -3
-1 -2 -4