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BEG 2223 - SM - Assignment 1

This document contains 5 questions regarding simulation and modeling. Question 1 defines key terms, lists advantages and disadvantages of simulation, and discusses different types of simulation models. Question 2 simulates machine breakdowns over 10 days using historical data. Question 3 simulates customer arrivals and service times at a reservation desk. Question 4 simulates inventory levels under a new reordering policy. Question 5 defines queuing theory terms and computes metrics for a hair salon with exponential inter-arrival and service times.

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Freddy Mutua
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42 views

BEG 2223 - SM - Assignment 1

This document contains 5 questions regarding simulation and modeling. Question 1 defines key terms, lists advantages and disadvantages of simulation, and discusses different types of simulation models. Question 2 simulates machine breakdowns over 10 days using historical data. Question 3 simulates customer arrivals and service times at a reservation desk. Question 4 simulates inventory levels under a new reordering policy. Question 5 defines queuing theory terms and computes metrics for a hair salon with exponential inter-arrival and service times.

Uploaded by

Freddy Mutua
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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BEG 2223: SIMULATION AND MODELING

Assignment 1
ANSWER ALL QUESTONS

QUESTION ONE

a) Using relevant examples defined the terminology simulation and modeling (2


marks)
simulation is a powerful methodology for design and analysis of complex systems. The
aim of simulation is to represent the dynamic characteristics of a real world system in a
computer model.
Modeling this is the process of constructing a conceptual imitation of the real or
imaginary system

b) List three advantages and three disadvantages of simulation and modeling (2


marks)
Advantages
1. Simulation is less costly while experimentation with the real system can be very
expensive.
2. Simulation takes less time, than experiment with a real system may take many weeks
or months before a true reflection of the performance of the system can be obtained.
3. Simulation enables easier control of the experimental conditions
Disadvantages
 Simulation software can be expensive, especially where consultants have to be
employed.
 Simulation can be time consuming since sometimes it needs much time to get
useful results.
 Simulation can be data hungry and this can present a problem where significant
amount of data is needed and it is not immediately available.
 Simulation requires expertise as it is beyond the development of a computer
program

c) Discuss the following types of simulation models


1. Physical models (3 marks)
Physical modeling is a way of modeling and simulating systems that consist of real physical
components. It employs a physical network approach, where blocks correspond to physical
elements, such as pumps, motors, and op-amps.

ii) Mathematical models(3marks)


mathematical model is a mathematical structure that can be used to describe and study a real
system.

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This can also be described as description of a system using mathematical concepts and
language
iii) Simulation models (3 marks)
 Simulation Model this is a mathematical business model which combines both mathematical
and logical concepts that tries to emulate a real life system through use of computer software.
iv) Heuristic models (3 marks)
Heuristic Models refers to techniques based on experience for various tasks such as
research, problem solving, discovery and learning. Heuristic methods enhance the pace of
finding the desirable solution in conditions where the comprehensive search is unfeasible.
v) Deterministic models (3 marks
 Deterministic Model allows you to calculate a future event exactly, without the involvement
of randomness
Randomness does not affect the behavior of the system. The output of the system is not a
random variable.

d) Using appropriate formula define the congenital method for random number (2
marks)
Congruential method of random number generation is an algorithm that yields a
sequence of pseudo-randomized numbers calculated with a discontinuous piecewise
linear equation

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e) You have been recently appointed in IT department of Kenya Commercial Bank
(KCB) and your first assignment is to generate random number using
congruential method for a purpose simulation project. The following
assumptions are made by the IT manager: m=8, a=5, c=7 and x0 (seed)=4. You
are required to generate 6 random numbers for this project (2 marks)

QUESTION TWO

The manager of Pwani Oil Ltd Workshop is concerned about machine breakdown. He
has made a decision to simulate breakdown for a 10-day period. Historical data on
breakdown over the last 100 days are given in the following table and random numbers;

Number of Breakdowns Frequency


0 10
1 30
2 25
3 20
4 10
5 5

Required:

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i) Develop a cumulative frequency probability (2 marks)

ii) Simulate the breakdown for 10-day period (2 marks)

iii) What is the mean breakdown for 10-day period (2 marks)

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Mean = total demand
Total days
26 = 2.6
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iv) Compare simulated mean to the expected number of breakdown based on
historical data (2 marks)

simulated mean = 2.6


expected breakdown on historical data = 15\ 6
2.5
Simulated mean is greater than the expected breakdown based on historical data
Simulated mean > expected breakdown based on historical data

QUESTION THREE
Modern Coast Ltd has one reservation clerk on duty in its Mombasa branch at any given
time. The clerks handle information regarding passenger reservation and travel timings.
Assume that the number of customers arriving during any given period is passion
distribution with and arrival rate 8 per hours and that the clerk can service 1 customer
in 6 minutes on an average, with an exponentially distributed service time.

a) What is the probability that the system is busy (2 marks)

b) What is the average time a customer spends in a system (2 marks)

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c) What is the average length of the Queue (2 marks)

d) What is the average number of customers in a Queue (2 marks)

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QUESTION FOUR

The manager of General Motors Ltd wants to acquire some insight into how a proposed a
policy for reordering Mercedes Benz from the manufacturers in Germany might results
in shortage. Under the new policy, 2 cars are to be ordered whenever the number of cars
on hand at the end of the day plus number of cars on orders is two or fewer. Assume that
purchase and time the dealer’s records, the probability distributions for daily demand
(i.e. its sales) is;
0 0.50 0.40
1 0.10
2

Required;

i) Develop a cumulative frequency probability for GM Ltd (2 marks)

ii) Manually simulate the inventory system for 10 days (2 marks)

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NOTE: Random Number: 54 73 29 51 87 51 99 18 30 and 27

iii) What is the probability of cars being out of stock (2 marks)

QUESTION FIVE
a) Using appropriate examples define the following queuing theory terminologies;
i)Traffic intensity(2marks)
it is the percentage of time server is busy. It is expressed as the ratio of arrival rate to service
rate.
ii) Balking (2 marks)
 this is when customers deciding not to join the queue if it is too long

iii) Reneging (2 marks)


this is when a customer’s leave the queue if they have waited too long for service

iv) Jockeying (2 marks)


customers switch between queues if they think they will get served faster by switching queues

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b) Assume that time between arrivals and service times at a single-chair unisex hair-
styling saloon have been shown to be exponentially distributed. The value of and are
2 per hour and 3 per hour, respectively. Compute the following;

i) The service utilization (2 marks)

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ii) The probability of having 0, 1, 2 and 3 or more customers in the shop (2
marks)

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iii) The number of customers in the system, in queue and their waiting times (2
marks)

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