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Decline Curve

Decline curve analysis is a graphical method used to analyze declining production rates of oil and gas wells over time and forecast future performance. It involves fitting a standard curve to past production data and extrapolating the curve to predict future production. The analysis can be done on different fluid streams like oil, total liquids, or ratios of fluids. The variable chosen should have a recognizable trend that can be used to forecast performance if reservoir and operating conditions remain unchanged. Two common curves used are rate over time and rate over cumulative production, with time being most useful for forecasting and economics but cumulative production providing estimates of ultimate recovery.

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27 views

Decline Curve

Decline curve analysis is a graphical method used to analyze declining production rates of oil and gas wells over time and forecast future performance. It involves fitting a standard curve to past production data and extrapolating the curve to predict future production. The analysis can be done on different fluid streams like oil, total liquids, or ratios of fluids. The variable chosen should have a recognizable trend that can be used to forecast performance if reservoir and operating conditions remain unchanged. Two common curves used are rate over time and rate over cumulative production, with time being most useful for forecasting and economics but cumulative production providing estimates of ultimate recovery.

Uploaded by

wisam alkhoory
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introduction

Decline curve analysis is a graphical procedure used for analyzing declining production rates
and forecasting future performance of oil and gas wells. A curve fit of past production
performance is done using certain standard curves. This curve fit is then extrapolated to
predict potential future performance. Decline curve analysis is a basic tool for estimating
recoverable reserves. Conventional or basic decline curve analysis can be used only when the
production history is long enough that a trend can be identified.

Decline curve analysis is not grounded in fundamental theory but is based on empirical
observations of production decline. Three types of decline curves have been identified;
exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic. There are theoretical equivalents to these decline
curves (for example, it can be demonstrated that under certain circumstances, such as
constant well backpressure, equations of fluid flow through porous media under "boundary-
dominated flow" conditions are equivalent to "exponential" decline). However, decline curve
analysis is fundamentally an empirical process based on historical observations of well
performance. Because of its empirical nature, decline curve analysis is applied, as deemed
appropriate for any particular situation, on single or multi-fluid streams. For example, in
certain instances, the oil rate may exhibit an exponential decline, while in other situations it
is the total liquids (oil + water) that exhibit the exponential trend. Thus, in some instances,
the analysis is conducted on one fluid, sometimes on the total fluids, sometimes on the ratio
(for example Water-Oil-Ratio (WOR) or even (WOR + 1)). Since there is no overwhelming
justification for any single variable to follow a particular trend, the practical approach to
decline curve analysis is to choose the variable (gas, oil, oil + water, WOR, WGR etc.) that
results in a recognizable trend, and to use that decline curve to forecast future performance.

It is implicitly assumed, when using decline curve analysis, the factors causing the historical
decline continue unchanged during the forecast period. These factors include both reservoir
conditions and operating conditions. Some of the reservoir factors that affect the decline rate
include; pressure depletion, number of producing wells, drive mechanism, reservoir
characteristics, saturation changes, and relative permeability. Operating conditions that
influence the decline rate are: separator pressure, tubing size, choke setting, workovers,
compression, operating hours, and artificial lift. As long as these conditions do not change,
the trend in decline can be analyzed and extrapolated to forecast future well performance. If
these conditions are altered, for example through a well workover, then the decline rate
determined pre-workover will not be applicable to the post-workover period.

When analyzing rate decline, two sets of curves are normally used. The flow rate is plotted
against either time or cumulative production. Time is the most convenient independent variable
because extrapolation of rate-time graphs can be directly used for production forecasting and
economic evaluations. However, plots of rate vs. cumulative production have their own
advantages; Not only do they provide a direct estimate of the ultimate recovery at a specified
economic limit, but will also yield a more rigorous interpretation in situations where the
production is influenced by intermittent operations.

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