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Binomial Distribution

The document discusses the binomial probability distribution. It defines a binomial experiment as having a fixed number of trials (n) with only two possible outcomes (success or failure) and a constant probability (p) of success each trial. The number of successes, X, follows a binomial distribution with probability P(X) calculated using the binomial formula. The mean and variance of the distribution are also provided. Several examples are then shown applying the binomial distribution to calculate probabilities.

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Vinayak Patil
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100 views7 pages

Binomial Distribution

The document discusses the binomial probability distribution. It defines a binomial experiment as having a fixed number of trials (n) with only two possible outcomes (success or failure) and a constant probability (p) of success each trial. The number of successes, X, follows a binomial distribution with probability P(X) calculated using the binomial formula. The mean and variance of the distribution are also provided. Several examples are then shown applying the binomial distribution to calculate probabilities.

Uploaded by

Vinayak Patil
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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12.

The Binomial Probability Distribution


A binomial experiment is one that possesses the following properties:
The experiment consists of n repeated trials;

1. Each trial results in an outcome that may be classified as a success or a failure (hence the name,
binomial);
2. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant from trial to trial and repeated trials
are independent.

The number of successes X in n trials of a binomial experiment is called a binomial random variable.

The probability distribution of the random variable X is called a binomial distribution, and is given by
the formula:

P(X) = Cnxpxqn−x

where

n = the number of trials

x = 0, 1, 2, ... n

p = the probability of success in a single trial

q = the probability of failure in a single trial

(i.e. q = 1 − p)

Cnx is a combination

Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution

If p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure in a binomial trial, then the expected
number of successes in n trials (i.e. the mean value of the binomial distribution) is

E(X) = μ = np

The variance of the binomial distribution is

V(X) = σ2 = npq
Note: In a binomial distribution, only 2 parameters, namely n and p, are needed to determine the
probability.

EXAMPLE 1
A die is tossed 3 times. What is the probability of
(a) No fives turning up?
(b) 1 five?
(c) 3 fives?
Solution:
This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 possible outcomes (we get a 5 or we don't).
Now, n = 3 for each part. Let X = number of fives appearing.

(a) Here, x = 0.

(b) Here, x = 1.

c) Here, x = 3.

EXAMPLE 2

Hospital records show that of patients suffering from a certain disease, 75% die of it. What is the
probability that of 6 randomly selected patients, 4 will recover?

This is a binomial distribution because there are only 2 outcomes (the patient dies, or does not).

Let X = number who recover.

Here, n = 6 and x = 4. Let p = 0.25 (success - i.e. they live), q = 0.75 (failure, i.e. they die).

The probability that 4 will recover:

Histogram of this distribution:

We could calculate all the probabilities involved and we would get:


The histogram (using Excel) is as follows:

It means that out of the 6 patients chosen, the probability that none of them will recover is 0.17798, the
probability that one will recover is 0.35596, and the probability that all 6 will recover is extremely small.

EXAMPLE 3

In the old days, there was a probability of 0.8 of success in any attempt to make a telephone call. (This
often depended on the imortance of the person making the call, or the operator's curiosity!)

Calculate the probability of having 7 successes in 10 attempts.

Probability of success p = 0.8, so q = 0.2.

X = success in getting through.


Probability of 7 successes in 10 attempts:

EXAMPLE 4

A (blindfolded) marksman finds that on the average he hits the target 4 times out of 5. If he fires 4 shots,
what is the probability of

(a) more than 2 hits?

(b) at least 3 misses?

Here, n = 4, p = 0.8, q = 0.2.

Let X = number of hits.

Let x0 = no hits, x1 = 1 hit, x2 = 2 hits, etc.

(a)

(b) 3 misses means 1 hit, and 4 misses means 0 hits.


EXAMPLE 6

A manufacturer of metal pistons finds that on the average, 12% of his pistons are rejected because they
are either oversize or undersize. What is the probability that a batch of 10 pistons will contain

(a) no more than 2 rejects? (b) at least 2 rejects?

Let X = number of rejected pistons

(In this case, "success" means rejection!)

Here, n = 10, p = 0.12, q = 0.88.

(a)

No rejects

One reject

Two rejects

So the probability of getting no more than 2 rejects is:

(b) We could work out all the cases for X = 2, 3, 4, ..., 10, but it is much easier to proceed as follows:
EXAMPLE 5

The ratio of boys to girls at birth in Singapore is quite high at 1.09:1.

What proportion of Singapore families with exactly 6 children will have at least 3 boys? (Ignore the
probability of multiple births.)

[Interesting and disturbing trivia: In most countries the ratio of boys to girls is about 1.04:1, but in
China it is 1.15:1.]

Soluton :The probability of getting a boy is

Let X = number of boys in the family.

Here,

n = 6,
p = 0.5215,
q = 1 − 0.52153 = 0.4785

So the probability of getting at least 3 boys is:

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