Transaction Comps
Transaction Comps
To begin, equity value is computed in the same manner as for trading comps with
small differences: instead of the closing share price of a given day, the base is
constituted by the announced offer price per share; the fully diluted shares
outstanding are calculated considering the exercise of all the ITM options and
warrants, although not exercisable, as well as the conversion of the ITM converts and
equity-linked securities in accordance with the terms and change of control
provisions. Anyway, for private entities, equity value can be computed as enterprise
value less any assumed/refinanced debt.
Key Transaction Multiples For the multiples calculation, LTM financials are
employed because the banker usually doesn’t know on which projections the acquirer
has based its offer price and is reluctant to rely on equity researches and other
projections. Thus, adjustments for non-recurring items and recent events must be
applied to the figures sourced from the SEC filings as to normalize the performances
and to compute realistic multiples.
Other than standard multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA and their variants), computed in
the same manner as for trading comps, the banker must reserve attention to the
Offer Price per S h are
calculation of the premium paid4: Premium Paid = Unaffected S h are Price −1. In addition,
it’s common to verify the eventual synergies occurring in an acquisition, whose value
can affect robustly the multiples computed. This is especially true for strategic
buyers. In a public transaction, it’s common for the acquirers to communicate to
newswires and/or in investor presentations, the estimated synergies. Other source of
estimation of the expected synergies, together with their likelihood of realization, are
equity research reports. Once obtained the expected measure of those incremental
revenues or cost savings, the multiples can be adjusted to their measure (typically
the multiples reporting a measure of operative profitability):
1
A fixed exchange ratio defines the number of shares of the acquirer to be exchanged with each target’s stock. In this
form of consideration, the risk of a fluctuation in the acquirer’s share prices is divided between the parties equally
(assuming no collar, which is a contractual clause that limits the range of fluctuation of the consideration promised).
2
A floating exchange ratio defines the value of the acquirer’s shares to be exchanged with each target’s stock. Thus, the
risk of any fluctuation in the acquirer’s share price, assuming no structural protection, burdens the acquirer itself. This
consideration is often adopted when the acquirer is relevantly bigger than the target.
3
For each of the target’s stocks, an amount in cash to be paid is agreed, while the rest of the consideration in stock can
be defined either with a floating or a fixed exchange ratio.
4
Incremental dollar amount per share that the acquirer offers relative to the target’s unaffected share price (in
percentage). Moreover, the share price reported on the day before the announcement can be usually used as a proxy of
the unaffected price, even though, to avoid miscalculations due to information leakage and rumors, the premium paid is
usually calculated for multiple periods and compared by the banker.
Enterprise Value Enterprise Value
> .
LTM EBITDA LTM EBITDA+ Synergies
This phase of the analysis involves the same steps as for trading comps. It may be
worth specifying that in each case a number of considerations must be taken as to
correctly benchmark comparable transactions, as explained in the steps above.
5) Determine Valuation
Again, the process is similar as for trading comps, basing the valuation on means,
medians, highs, and lows, but still reserving the most relevance to a relatively
restricted number of comparable transactions. The process, once finalized, requires a
comparison between the output obtained and the valuation implied by trading comps,
trying to explain the possible differences (usually positive for transaction comps).