THE CLIMATE REALITY LEADERSHIP CORPS

LAS VEGAS TRAINING

4 9 th i n the Series
T H E CL IM AT E CR ISIS
AND ITS SOLUTIONS
T R UTH I N TE N
1. Must we change?

2. Can we change?

3. Will we change?
1. Must we change?
Solar radiation
in the form of lightwaves
passes through the
atmosphere
Most of this radiation
is absorbed by the
Earth and warms it
Some energy is radiated
back into space by the
earth in the form of
infrared waves
Some of this outgoing
infrared radiation is
trapped by the earth’s
atmosphere and warms it
As the CO2 concentration
increases, more of the
outgoing infrared
radiation is trapped.
We are spewing 162 million tons of manmade global
warming pollution into the thin shell of our
atmosphere every 24 hours — as if it were
an open sewer.
 THAWING PERMAFROST

COAL MINING

LANDFILLS
© 2017 Don Foley
 The Largest Source of Global Warming
Pollution Is the Burning of Fossil Fuels
36

30
Billion Metric Tons of CO2

24

18

12

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2021

The energy trapped by man-made
global warming pollution is now
“…equivalent to exploding

600,000
First-generation atomic bombs
per day 365 days per year.”
James Hansen
Former Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Global Surface Temperature – Departure from Average
1880 – 2021
1,0°

0,5°
Anomaly (°C)

0,0°

-0,5°
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2021
The20
Hottest
of theof
21All Have Been
Hottest Yearsthe
on Last Eight
Record Years
Have
Occurred Since the Year 2002

2020 2016 2019 2017 2015 2021 2018 2014

2010 2013 2005 2007 2009 2012

2006 2002 2003 2011 1998 2008 2004

Northwestern North America
June 28, 2021

Lytton, BC, Canada – 121.3° F (49.6° C)

The 2021 Pacific

Seattle, Washington – 108.0° F (42.2° C)
Northwest heat wave
was “the most Portland, Oregon – 116.1° F (46.7° C)
anomalous extreme
heat event ever
observed on Earth
since records began
two centuries ago.”

Source: Weather.com
2021 Record High Temperatures

Daily: 79,887 Monthly: 4,308 All-time: 815

 93% of the extra Heat
trapped by manmade
global warming pollution
goes into the
Ocean
 400

350
Global Ocean Heat Content
Change Since 1960
300
Ocean Heat Content (Z J)

Surface to 300 m Half of this increase

250 has occurred in less
0 – 2000 m Depth

300 to 700 m
than twenty years.
200 50%
700 to 2,000 m
150
2,000 m and more

100

50

-50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2021
 Sea Surface Temperature, August 29, 2021
4 8/29 3:00 PM

4 8/29 2:00 AM
3 8/28 5:00 PM

Hurricane Ida crossed

waters that were up to
7° F (4° C) higher
than normal, and that heat
Path of Ida
extended deeper than in August 26–29, 2021
other areas of the Gulf.

Sea Surface Temperature August 29, 2021 (° C)

25° 27° 29° 31° 33° 35°

New Orleans, Louisiana
August 30, 2021

Photo © 2021 Michael DeMocke/USA TODAY Network via Reuters

 Ida Continues Inland
4 8/29 3:00 PM

4
8/29 2:00 AM
3 8/28 5:00 PM

Path of Ida
August 26–29, 2021 Hurricane Ida and its
remnant storms killed at
least 84 people in the U.S.
Sea Surface Temperature August 29, 2021 (° C) South and Northeast.
25° 27° 29° 31° 33° 35°
San Isidro del Palmar, Oaxaca, Mexico
May 31, 2022

Hurricane Agatha killed

at least 11 people and
left 20 missing.
Miami, Florida
June 4, 2022

Miami received 11 inches

(28 cm) of rain as the
remnants of Hurricane
Agatha, which became the
first named storm of the
Atlantic hurricane season,
crossed the Gulf of Mexico
Photo © 2022 Daniel A. Varela/Miami Herald via AP and hit Florida.
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae
May 17, 2021

Cyclone Tauktae was

the strongest storm
ever to make landfall
on India’s west coast.

Image: NASA
West Bengal, India
May 26, 2021

One week after Cyclone

Tauktae ravaged western
India, Cyclone Yaas forced
the evacuation of 1.1 million
people in eastern India and
neighboring Bangladesh.

Photo © 2021 Reuters/Rupak De Chowdhuri

 “…the gravest effects of all
attacks on the environment
are suffered by the poorest.”
Encyclical Letter of
His Holiness, Pope Francis
On Care for our Common Home
June 18, 2015
 As Temperatures Increase, the Oceans
Evaporate More Moisture into the Sky

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, National Center for Computational Sciences
 Global Record-Breaking Precipitation Anomalies
175

150
compared to stationary climate (%)
Number of record-breaking events

125

100

75

50

25

-25
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
2015
Glasgow, Montana
Waverly, Tennessee
August 22, 2021

At least 22 people died in

flooding after parts of
Middle Tennessee received
43 cm (17 inches) of rain
in less than 24 hours.

Photo © 2021 AP Photo/Mark Humphrey

Feng Huang, Hunan Province, China
June 4, 2022

Millions of people in
southern China were
impacted by flooding
in early June.
Photo © 2022 AP Photo
Insol, Germany
July 15, 2021

Severe flooding in western

Europe killed at least 220
people in July 2021 and
caused more than $40
billion in damage.
Erftstadt-Blessem, Germany
July 15,July
Before 20212021

Photo © LANDSAT/Copernicus
2021 Rhein-Erft-Kreis/picture-alliance/dpa/AP
via Google Earth Images
Recife, Pernambuco State, Brazil
May 30, 2022

At least 91 people
were killed in flooding
in Pernambuco state.
Durban, South Africa
April 13, 2022

More than 450 people died

and 4,000 homes and
buildings were destroyed
as the deadliest storm
on record in South Africa
caused massive flooding
and mudslides.
The same extra heat that evaporates more water from
the ocean, causing bigger downpours and floods…

…pulls moisture even more quickly from the soil,

causing longer and deeper droughts.
An Inconvenient Truth © 2006 by Paramount Classics, a Division of Paramount Pictures. All Rights Reserved.
 June 9, 2022

85% of the U.S. West is

experiencing moderate
to exceptional drought.
Nevada, Utah and New
Mexico are 100% in
drought.

Abnormally Moderate Severe Extreme Exceptional

Dry Drought Drought Drought Drought
In the American Southwest, the
last two decades have been the
driest in at least 1,200 years.
Lake Mead, Nevada
April 17, 2022

Last Full (2000)

The United States’

largest reservoir is at
171.6 feet
its lowest level since it
was filled in the 1930s.
Villa Victoria Dam, Toluca, Mexico
April 22, 2021

After two years of

extreme drought, more
than half of Mexico’s
reservoirs are at 50%
or less of their capacity.
Food Distribution, Northern Mozambique
February 24, 2021

As many as 346 million people in

Africa are facing food insecurity.
 67,0°
Hotter Years Typically Have More Fires
Western U.S. Large Fires and May – September Temperatures
66,0°
Average Temperature (°F)

Temperature
150
65,0°

64,0°
100

63,0°

50
62,0°
Fires
61,0° 0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018
Hermit’s Peak/Calf Canyon Fire, New Mexico
May 26, 2022

This fire, at 319,841 acres,

is currently the largest in
the U.S. and the largest in
New Mexico’s history.
The second-largest fire
(300,806 acres) is also
burning in New Mexico.
 $90 B
$81.6 billion
$80 B Economic damages
U.S. Wildfire Damages ($ Billion)

$70 B from wildfires in the

$60 B
U.S. increased nearly
tenfold in the last four
$50 B
years, compared to
$40 B
the four years prior.
$30 B

$20 B

$10 B
$8.6 billion

$0 B
2012 – 2016 2017 – 2021
South Lake Tahoe, California
August 30, 2021

Six of the seven

largest fires in
California’s history
have occurred since
August 2020.
Gouves, Evia, Greece
August 8, 2021

Tens of thousands were

forced to evacuate as
fires raged across
southern Europe and
northern Africa.
 1.000

900 Worldwide Extreme Weather Catastrophes

1980 – 2020
800
Extreme temperatures, droughts, fires
700
Number of Events

Floods, mudslides
600
Storms
500

400

300

200

100

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Unnamed Glacier, Southwest Greenland
Summer 2013
1935

Images courtesy Anders Bjørk, © Natural History Museum of Denmark/Tholstrup (2013) and Danish Geodata Agency (1935)
 500

0
Declining Ice Mass in Greenland
-500
Change in Ice Mass (Gigatonnes)

-1.000

-1.500

-2.000

-2.500

-3.000

-3.500

-4.000

-4.500

-5.000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Ice Sheet, Kangerlussuaq, Greenland

Greenland’s ice is melting four times faster than

originally thought, and more is melting from the
permanent ice sheet than from glaciers.
Data: M. Bevis, et al., “Accelerating changes in ice mass within Greenland,
and the ice sheet’s sensitivity to atmospheric forcing,” PNAS, January 2019.
Photo © 2017 Martin Zwick/REDA&CO/UIG via Getty Images
 Antarctic Ice Loss

1979–1989

1989–1999

1999–2009

2009–2017

0 75 150 225 300

Ice Loss Per Year in Billion Metric Tons

 2070 Population at Risk (in Millions)

0
5
10
15

Kolkata

Mumbai

Dhaka

Guangzhou

Ho Chi Minh City

Shanghai
By Population at Risk

Bangkok

Rangoon

Miami

Hai Phong
Top 10 Cities at Risk from Sea Level Rise in 2070
 Estimated Exposed Assets (Trillion USD)

$0,0
$1,0
$2,0
$3,0
$4,0

Miami

Guangzhou

New York/Newark

Kolkata

Shanghai

Mumbai
By Assets at Risk

Tianjin

Tokyo

Hong Kong

Bangkok
Top 10 Cities at Risk from Sea Level Rise in 2070
Miami Beach, Florida
November 14, 2016

© 2016 Richard Conlin

Norfolk, Virginia
September 6, 2019

The frequency of high-tide

flooding in the U.S. has
doubled in the last 20 years.
Photo © 2017 Stephen M. Katz/The Virginian-Pilot via AP
 Kiribati is the first nation to
purchase land in another country
to house its climate refugees.

Photo: © 2013 Reuters/David Gray

 U.S. Department of Defense
2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap

Climate change
“will likely lead to
food and water shortages,
pandemic disease,
disputes over refugees and resources,
and destruction by natural disasters in
regions across the globe.”
Earth’s “Uninhabitable” Zones

Current Conditions By 2070

 Globally, 10.3 million people
were displaced by extreme weather
from September 2020 to February 2021
—four times more than by conflict.
The world could see up to
1 billion climate migrants.

The Lancet Countdown Report 2018

 “Climate change is the
single biggest health threat
facing humanity.”
World Health Organization
October 2021
Yunnan Province, China
April 28, 2020

As the climate changes and

humans expand further into
Earth’s remaining wild places,
five new infectious diseases
are emerging, on average
each year.
Photo © 2020 Xinhua/Yang Zongyou via Getty Images
 75% of all new emerging
infectious diseases are
zoonotic,
meaning they are transmitted
from animals to humans.
South Kalimantan, Indonesia
September 29, 2019

Indonesian villages near

forests experience a
10% increase in malaria
cases for every 1%
decline in forest cover.

Photo © 2019 Reuters/Willy Kurniawan

 Tropical Diseases on the Move

*
**
* *
*

West Nile Virus Chikungunya Cryptococcus Gattii Fungus Zika Virus

Rift Valley Fever Chagas Disease Dengue Fever
© James Hastings-Trew *The exact point of origin of many diseases is uncertain
Worldwide, air pollution
from fossil fuels kills
9 million people
every year
Eastern Houston, Texas

More than 40% of people

in the U.S. live in counties
that don’t meet EPA air
quality standards.

Data: Enviromedics: The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health.

Photo © 2018 Reuters/Loren Elliott
 The
climate crisis
is also an
extinction and
biodiversity crisis.
 We now risk
losing up to
50% of all
land-based
species
in this century
 The Cost of Carbon
$ Political Instability $ Species Extinction
$ Floods & Mudslides $ Melting Glaciers
$ Wildfires $ Famine
$ Drought $ Water Scarcity
$ Storm Damage $ Ecosystem Loss
$ Ocean Acidification $ Our Way of Life
$ Infrastructure Loss $ Infectious Diseases
$ Climate Refugees $ Sea Level Rise
… And much,
$ “The much
#1 Threat to the more
Global Economy”
 So…
Yes!
Must we change?
2. Can we change?
 We have
the solutions
at hand...
 Green Energy Progress
How Do Projections Compare With Reality?

2000 Projection Reality

By 2021 that goal

Worldwide was exceeded by
wind capacity a factor of
will reach 30
GW by 2010
28 x
 140

U.S. Wind Energy Capacity

Cumulative Wind Capacity (Gigawatts)

120 2001 – Present

100

80

60

40

20

0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
 Some utilities in Texas are offering
free electricity at night
because wind energy is so abundant.
 Globally, wind could supply
worldwide electricity consumption
40 times over
 Solar Energy Progress
How Do Projections Compare With Reality?

2002 Projection Reality

The reality is
The solar In 2021 it was
that goal
energy market exceeded by
will grow one
gigawatt per
year by 2010 182
17 xx
 1.000

875
World Solar Installations
1980 – 2021
750
Gigawatts (Cumulative)

625

500

375

250

125

1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 2021

 120 118,7

U.S. Solar Capacity

100
94,2
Cumulative Gigawatts Installed

80 75,5

64,0
60
53,8

42,8
40
28,7

21,3
20
13,5
7,5
2,4 4,0
0,4 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,9 1,1 1,5
 $80
1976
$79.40/watt Cost of Crystalline Silicon
$70
Solar Cell Modules
$ Cost per Watt (Inflation Adjusted)

$60

$50

$40

$30

$20

$10 2021
$0.22/watt
$0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
New Electricity Capacity in the U.S., 2021

80% of new
Natural capacity was
Gas
from solar
Battery
Storage
and wind.

Solar

Wind
New Electricity Capacity in China, 2021
Nuclear
58% of new
capacity was
Coal (and from solar
oil, gas and and wind.
biomass) Solar

Hydro
Wind
 Enough solar energy reaches Earth every hour
to fill all the world’s energy needs for a full year
 28

Global Cumulative Storage Capacity

24 Historical

20
Gigawatts

16

12

0
 1.800

1.600
Global Cumulative Storage Capacity
Projected to 2050
1.400

1.200
Gigawatts

1.000

800

600

400

200

0
Electric Vehicles Will Reach Price Parity…
• By 2023
• In the U.S. for large cars and SUVs
• In Europe for large cars
• In China for midsize cars
• In South Korea for SUVs
• By 2024 in the U.S. for all segments of
the car market, and in Europe for SUVs.
 General Motors has
announced it will phase out
gasoline- and diesel-powered
passenger vehicles by 2035.
 18 M

16 M
Global Electric Cars on the Road
Cumulative; Battery and Plug-in Hybrid EVs
14 M
Electric Car Stock (Millions)

12 M

10 M Year over year global

EV sales more than
8M
doubled in 2021.
6M

4M

2M

0M
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
 So…
Yes!
Can we change?
3. Will we change?
 In the 2015 Paris Agreement,
every nation in the world agreed
to work together to achieve net zero
greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century.

© SevArt/Pond5
 74% of global emissions are from
countries that have set a net zero target.
Andorra China Iceland Malawi New Zealand Spain
Argentina Colombia India Malaysia Nigeria Sri Lanka
Australia Costa Rica Ireland Maldives Panama Sweden
Austria Cyprus Israel Malta Portugal Switzerland
Bahrain Denmark Italy Marshall Islands Russia Thailand
Barbados Dominican Jamaica Mauritania Rwanda Turkey
Bhutan Republic Japan Mauritius Saudi Arabia Ukraine
Brazil The EU Kazakhstan Monaco Seychelles United Arab
Bulgaria Fiji Laos Montenegro Singapore Emirates

Cambodia Finland Latvia Morocco Slovakia United Kingdom

Canada France Liberia Namibia Slovenia United States

Cape Verde Germany Lithuania Nauru Solomon Islands Uruguay
Chile Hungary Luxembourg Nepal South Korea Vietnam
Over 370 global companies have made
a commitment to go 100% renewable
 Nashville, Tennessee
September 20, 2019

Photo © 2019 Larry McCormack – USA TODAY NETWORK

Youth Climate Activists,
Nairobi, Kenya
March 19, 2021
Photo © 2021 Reuters/Thomas Mukoya
New Delhi, India
March 19, 2021

Photo © 2021 Reuters/Anushree Fadnavis

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