HOW TO TURN ABSOLUTE WORST INVESTING MISTAKES INTO A PROFITABLE TRADING STRATEGY IN UNDER 30 DAYS (#1 LIMITED GUIDE)Back in the day, | used to believe when | got my trades guessed right 10 times in a row, that | finally figured how the markets worked or I cracked some sort of enigma code. It could not be further from the truth... Honestly, I've made a ton of mistakes in my crypto trading career. Some had little impact. Then there's one unforgivable investing error that led to complete ruin... But before | get into the details, | want to make sure that you really understand what | mean. I've lost hundreds of thousands of dollars as a trader, many times... Even more when I count the missed opportunities. There were some great days when | doubled or tripled my account overnight, but then | turned out to be an expert in losing money. Getting rekt was my middle name. Get scammed too many times to count, and at other times my money held on this. exchange evaporated overnight (thanks Cryptopia..) in a hack. | was misled by toxic influencers dumping on me. Then, | add getting stopped ten times in a row. | literally would see shitcoins run right past my stops and stare. “It must be a joke”, | thought. Even when | was up 30% on my account, | never paid myself and ended up burned, giving back all the gains. It was so frustrating | could not control my emotions, and stick to my plan. had no discipline. | struggled to find reliable, beginner-friendly resources to learn and understand how RSI or MACD worked. With my job on the side, it was really difficult to get started as a trader with the money | had. | wanted to get my confidence back so badly. | felt like the dumbest person in the world when trading. If only there was a good rule -of --humb to make money, even when there's no volatility... but there were too many scammers to trust anybody. |, for one, certainly had no idea how to recognize trends to time my entries and exits on different time frames correctly. So it was difficult to keep up the positive energy or prioritize my mental health. Here are a few more | remember: - Fighting the tape. - Letting losers run. - Over-sized position. - Following fake gurus. ~ Over-leveraged margin. - Falling for the ‘get rich fast’ schemes. - Fighting the trend - Lack of stop-loss. - No trading system - Confusing trading strategies. - Cognitive and emotional mistakes. - Entering illiquid markets. Ignoring reversal indicators. - Following the crowd blindly (FOMO). - Not keeping track of the news. - Lack of suitable skills. - Not using a trading journal. ~ Lack of knowledge. - Not paying attention to inflation. - Cutting winners early. - Lack of proper guidance. Sound familiar? Failing for the 10th time because of the same mistake really makes you wonder. Am | really this bad? Am | cursed? Why do | keep ruining those f*cking trades? How's it even possible to be this bad at trading? It's hard to accept the truth with such a reality check.Oftentimes, | found myself following the stages of the grief cycle. It’s nicely described in the graph below. I'm pretty sure you've also been in some of these phases even if you were not aware of it at the time. The Grief Cycle Individuals may experience the grief stages in different orders, can oscillate between them, or them entirely. Stage V - Acceptance Stage | - Denial “Lesson Learned. Time To Move On “The Bulls Wil Fight Back” Stage IV - Depression Stage II - Anger “\cive Up." “wy Are The Markets So Merciless? Stage III - Barg: "1 Should Have Sold Earle I've found that what differentiates people of success from those of failure, is the last stag Acceptance. It's very difficult to accept reality. In my case praying really helps. It's a form of meditation. It calms me down. Not only am | not joking now, but you have my word - it really works. Jesus has saved me, my portfolio, and my spirit many times. Praying makes you become a better human, and a better trader because of that. It teaches you to be grateful for your challenges. Acceptance needs action, though. It’s just the beginning. So, how did | go from a complete noob and a trading failure, to the only Chartered Market Technician® from my country, one of the most respected crypto analysts in the world, profitable trend trader, and founder of one of the largest and most reputable trade schools around at The Birb Nest, helping tens of thousands of traders get back on their feet? I'll tell you all the details in a moment, but first try to answer this question (but be honest): WHY would anyone want to be a trader? Yup, it always starts with the WHY. Some people work full-time, but they hate their job. The others will search for freedom and believe trading will give it to them ona silver platter. Yet, these desires are not always what they seem. The truth is, we will act irrationally when facing uncertainty and making decisions. At times, just because one had a bad day at work, they will try to run away from pain by searching for an answer somewhere else. The grass is always greener on the other side, right? At least it may seem that way. More often than not, however, it just leads to another disappointment. In the era of instant gratification, too many will seek immediate answers and rewards even where it is virtually impossible to get them. One such place that seemingly offers instant gratification is the financial market.Most often, it starts with an emotional trigger. Based on behavioral psychology, people will act upon a stimulus either toward pleasure or away from pain. That is why why many decide to open their first trading account or kick off a trading journey. And, that is already the first major (emotional) error. Because of this spontaneous reaction within our body and mind, called emotion, we can hardly control the results of our decisions made upon it. Money hates what's irrational. And, that’s where the "fun" begins. In my early days, | would get attracted to everything | saw, read, and watched regarding trading. In fact, | found a sh*tload of online resources to support my views, feeding my confirmation bias. And the most popular view was to get rich quick. There must be the holy grail somewhere, right? Spoiler alert. NO HOLY GRAILS EXIST IN TRADING. It took me many years to figure it out. No matter how many books you'll read, or how many unverified and self-proclaimed twitter gurus you'll follow, it won't make you rich. | know that, because | used to be like you uncertain, skeptical. Now, I may not be the most intelligent person in the world, but there's one feature that gives me many wins in the long run. It is persistence. Ihave always had drive to keep digging, learning, and expanding my knowledge to inspire improvements in my trading. At first, not knowing much about investing in practice, | would go and shoot my blind guess a bet. Based on what exactly? Good question. Spidey sense? Intuition? A feeling? Funnily enough, it may give a lucky run of wins, just to make us believe | got this! But, it is a trap... It isa huge mistake and a very dangerous and false assumption to believe markets have some well-defined order. Instead, the markets have entropy, an inherent disorder that changes in unexpected ways over certain periods. We can't predict what the prices will be in a year. So, how can trading even be a profitable profession if | can't predict the price movements, right? There is an answer. And not knowing it is the worst mistake I've found a trader can make. It will always, eventually, lead to ruin, It's not as spectacular or thrilling as you would imagine, though. The answer is. TRADING SYSTEM You read right. The very reason behind trading system being the #1 priority for any full-time trader is that markets, at times, trend. More often, though, the market prices will move sideways. You never know until it's finished. Everything is obvious in hindsight. "Oh, yeah, this pattern breakout was obvious. I'm so happy | took this trade. | knew | was going to be right. Let's bet more on the next Bitcoin breakout" The above is what we call hindsight bias one of many behavioral biases. To prevent yourself from acting upon the biases be it cognitive errors, or emotional attitudes, you need a well-defined trading system. It is a simple set of rules you employ in your trading. The simpler, the better, the principle of parsimony (simplicity). What about the elements? There are a couple of them, and missing one makes your system faulty!Every trading system must include these factors: - Markets: What to buy/sell - Position sizing: How much to buy/sell - Entries: When to buy/sell - Exits: When to get out of a winning position - Stops: When to get out of a losing position - Tactic: How to buy/sell Ifyou are a visual learner, you can also use the visual guide I've designed for you below. TRADING PLAN TEMPLATE a o> frases) my % i ¥ Then, depending on your risk preferences, time availability, starting capital and overall interests, you can decide on a trading style. Perhaps you want to be a buy-and-hold investor? Funnily enough, it's a really difficult challenge to beat the buy-and-hold strategy. Or, just maybe, you will fit better under the category of a position trader who takes a trade per quarter? What about swing trading? Yeah, that's also a very popular style of trading, given the shorter-term focus preferred by many new traders. What else? Well, you can always choose to visit the very depths of what most traders learn to be hell, day trading or high-frequency trading(HFT). That is a style where you would make your trading decisions once a day or more. We could probably go on and on, and pivot around many legs of those. But it's most important to remember “In the development of a system or trading philosophy, each person must settle on the combination of risk, reward, and opportunity that best suits him or her. There is no best combination.” (CMT® Level III 2022: The Integration of Technical Analysis). Most traders are loss-averse. Let's be honest. Nobody likes losing. You probably don't like losing, either. Otherwise, you wouldn't be reading my PDF right now. So, the strategy you pick must be tailor-made to align with your risk preference. While some traders prefer to make few moves (risk-averse), others love betting and would go for risk-seeking gambles. It's your call there. Before you can a decision, you need to know yourself really, really well. That's aiso what | help with, along with my team in The Birb Nest. On a daily basis we help traders who struggle to pick their best risk profile based on their individual needs. In fact, my individual mentoring programs have served hundreds of traders in the last 5 years. We've become really good at this.Getting closer to the final point, you'll still need to decide on your tacties. It’s about the sacrifices you'll make. Remember, there is no holy grail... Traders will choose between trend-following, mean reversion, chart pattern recognition, or exogenous signal. Each of these comes with pros and cons. Which is best? John R. Hill & George Pruitt who test the profitability and robustness of trading systems suggest the best performing tactics are trend-following breakout systems. Despite most trend followers will get a 30% win rate (myself included!), with the winners compensating for all the losses, This is thanks to the existence of trends (fat tails). There are many types of breakouts to be defined, Some will use a percentage filter, a volume spike, a StdDev (standard deviation) measure, or a time filter to validate certain breaks into new price levels. Here's an example in the $USD chart below: Volatility breakouts are the most reliable. It is when the price break is validated by exceptional volatility on the breakout day. Oftentimes, it is acknowledged that a break is reliable if the price spike exceeds regular volatility by 3 to 5 times. One way to measure that is ATR (Average True Range). It is just the average of the true range, or the difference between each bar - high and low - over some past period. How does it all connect with my initial points for trading? | mean, how can you really turn the absolute worst investing mistakes into a profitable trading strategy? POOF! Imagine what I've written here never appeared. Many will continue not to even think about the tactics they should use with severe dedication. They will keep populating the very same errors, It's a vicious circle where many just hope to get lucky again, and again. But, how can you hope to win a lottery at all times? Luck is a deviation of chance. Imagine you flip a coin and come up tails 7 times in a row. Does it mean you've discovered a magical system which will always land tails with 100% success? Go ahead, take a guess.. The probability of a tail ora head is exactly the same - 50% each. So, stop fooling yourself with your seven shots at tails, you were a victim of luck.I say “victim”, because, in trading, mistaking luck for skill is unforgivable. Relying on it only will always lead to devastating ruin. Then, how not to go broke? That's Where the need for a reliable trading system comes in. Designing a robust trading system is a challenge, and not something as spectacular as they portray in the movies about floor traders on Wall Street. Time for you to check the alpha cheat sheet below. Read it carefully: MINDSET FOR DESIGNING A TRADING SYSTEM ge Be disciplined and follow your final tested plan exactly y Be organized. I Losses will occur. Keep thom seal consistent with one's time available. i Test, backtest and test again. will not necessarily occur constantly. Emotions will likely cause you to waiver and change your system. Of course, once a system is designed, it needs to be checked, maintained, refreshed, and recalibrated from time to time. Being a non-discretionary (mechanical) trader with a systematic approach to trade is not a one-trick pony. We are led to believe rich traders just sit ‘ona golden throne for the rest of their lives watching the money pile grow. That's not how it works. There's a lot of complexity and unpredictability about trading. You can't ever be certain about what's going to happen tomorrow. A symmetrical triangle or overbought Stoch RSI in a chart won't tell you that either. Because of this, you'll likely face many losses in your trading career. Buckle up. In the overall chaos going on, nature prefers simplicity. The less complex your trading system can be, the better the odds that you will be profitable. A good, simple backtested system tends to outperform more complex systems. While | certainly can not guarantee that any technical system will make you a billionaire overnight, I'd say there are some practical ways that you can get started on your journey to profitability. If you've expected an example of a profitable trading strategy that is easy to implement, then you are in the right place. Here we go. Take a look at one of the simplest strategies. It's based on the trend-following philosophy. I'm talking about moving averages. Moving average is a very popular, statistical tool which gives you a base for your expectations an average over a sample which changes over time. Means represent smoothed trends in price charts of securities. While the simplest way is to use one moving average, using two moving averages crossing over is often a better choice. If two MAs are better than one, then why not use three or four? The answer lies in the simplicity. The more moving averages you use, the more complex (scarce) the signals are i.e. the less frequently all three moving averages will cross over each other in an expected way to trigger the signal.But, greater complexity doesn't mean better gains. You may choose a shorter, faster mean (MASO) and a longer one (MA200). This way, you'll notice a signal whenever a faster MA crosses over the slower one. Ifit crosses upwards it's a buy signal, whereas a downside cross is a sell trigger. Ta The chart above is supposed to give you a brief idea about how the mean crossover system can work. The real alpha comes with this free robust system, backtested and optimised for the ATR. What I'm giving you below is a ready-to-use trading system. If you follow it religiously, it could start producing some wins (and losses) which will set you in the right direction. Overall, it's about risk-adjusted returns, not just gains. If your portfolio gets a boost with big returns, but it's highly volatile, then the Sharpe Ratio of such equity will be actually low, and not preferred. It's better to have a bit lower and less volatile returns. But, that's material for another story and a complete tutorial. You'll get that in The Birb Nest. Meanwhile, have a look at the system below. icon /US Doty 10 BTSTANP Trdnaew AE ozoss00 nano mE» came. vaSuch a two-moving average system runs on the assumptions: BTC/USD 1D BITSTAMP Account size: 10,000.00$ Risk per Trade: 1.5% Entry Rules: 50/200 Positive Crossover (or SOSMA Above 200SMA) Exit Rules: 50/200 Negative Crossover (or SOSMA Below 200SMA) Initial Stop: Entry - (I*ATR) The backtesting results yielded 3815.86% over 21 trades, with a 33.33% win rate and a max drawdown at 6.47%, Note that it's a longer-term regime. You should not expect to get exactly the same results. Furthermore, you must understand that before getting any tailor-made recommendations, you should allow me and my team to get to know you very well inside The Nest. But, before I'll see you there, catch an example of a 30-day recovery program. | called it ‘BIRB’. It's divided into four phases. Phase Day Action Points B 1-7 Understand where you are in the grief cycle. Reach acceptance. 1 8-15 Define your risk preference. Pick a trading style. Learn about systems. R 16-23 | Set up your trading system: markets, entries, exits, stops, and technique. B 24-30 | Start executing your first trades and kick off your journey to profitability! And that's about it. Some old wise guy once said “Try not. Do... or do not. There is no try.” Do it, then. Before you go, here are couple of key points to remember: - The worst trading mistake is not following any system. - Mistaking luck for skill is unforgivable. - Discipline in applying trend-following systems yields the most robust returns. - The % gain is not everything - Reliability within a risk management regime saves you from ruin. Take it as you please Congratulations! You've made it this far. This means you've just started your life-changing game towards profitable trading. You know, I've put in a lot of time and effort to get this PDF out for you. | really hope this limited guide helps turn your absolute worst investing mistakes into a profitable trading strategy in under 30 days. With that, you can prove haters wrong, too. You deserve this success. The ball is in your court, now. Go get it. Ill wait here. Godspeed! P.S. Send me your results at @crypto_birb on twitter. Here's to your success. bn. Zi