TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING

TRAVEL DEMAND
MODELING
GROUP 9

MEMBERS:
Brier, Brian Jade
Calanog, Christian Renz
Panganiban, Gerald
Trinidad, Rafael Dumrigue

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 Travel Demand Modeling

Introduction
This presentation is an overview of how urban transportation systems are designed or
how the demand is determined necessary for the capacity of a city.
Since the advent of the 21st century and the widespread use of motor vehicles, travel
demand became prevalent particularly in big, expanding metropolitan areas like Olongapo City
with a high degree of accumulation and concentration of economic activity, increasing traffic
congestion is an unavoidable situation. With the occurring problem around the world
transportation planners seek a solution with use of forecasting model which are more simplified,
at the same time complex enough to reproduce key relationships of the reality.
Cities play a vital role in promoting economic growth and prosperity of a nation. The
development of cities largely depends upon their physical, social, and institutional infrastructure.
Transport demand in most cities has increased substantially, due to increases in population as a
result of both natural increase and migration from rural areas and smaller towns. A high level of
pollution is another undesirable feature of overloaded streets.
No matter the mode of transportation, we strive to provide a safe and efficient system that
offers people options for travel. Travel demand modeling is a process of establishing spatial
distribution of travel explicitly by means of an appropriate system of zones. Briefly travel
demand model is a set of mathematical relationships describing when why and how people move
in and out of a geographic area.
Basic Components of Travel Demand Model
A. Inputs
Model inputs are based upon the roadway system, land use and demographic or socioeconomic
(SE) data. SE data, such as population, household and employment by type, represents land use.
Future year projections of SE data were based on existing land uses including land development,
as well as region wide forecasts of population, household and employment. Future year forecasts
also considered planned major transportation improvements. It is in this area of TDM
development that land use and community planning are connected to the transportation planning
process. The SE data and the highway network serve as the basic inputs to the TDM.
B. Model
TDMs ultimately forecast travel demand using four steps: 1) trip generation, 2) trip
distribution, 3) mode choice, and 4) trip assignment. The first step, trip generation, calculates the
trips that can be generated within the study area using the SE data noted above. The second step,
trip distribution, determines where the generated trips go (i.e., their origin and destination). The
third step, mode choice, determines what modes will be utilized (i.e., passenger vehicles, transit,

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etc.). The fourth step, trip assignment, determines what routes will be taken to get from point A
to point B.
C. Outputs
The TDM outputs include forecasted traffic volumes and other traffic metrics (i.e., travel
speeds, travel time, congestion levels, etc.) on the transportation network. These metrics can be
used to helps identify transportation system deficiencies. TDMs are often used to assist in
prioritizing transportation projects as well.

• Socio-economic data
Input • Highway and transit network representations

• Parameters and relationships

• Sensitivities of choices to time and cost
Model • Confirmation of data via survey

• Network with volume on each link

• Matrices of trips
Output • Report

Types of Modeling
Mode/Destination Choice Models, Activity-based Models, Population Simulation, , and
Integrated Land Use & Transport Model are a few sophisticated or challenging approaches used
as a form of travel demand models. But more than 90% of the travel demand models still in use
today are what we refer to as classic Four-Step Models.
Four Stage Model (FSM)
There are many ways to build a model, but no matter what, building accurate travel demand
models requires detailed information about:
• Where groups of people go
• The ways their travel behavior changes during specific conditions

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The most commonly used modelling methodology is the 4-step model approach also known as
the Four Stage Model (FSM) includes trip generation, trip distribution, modal split (Mode
choice) and trip assignment (Route choice).

SURVEY DESIGN: INFORMATION NEEDED FOR THE MODEL

• Socio economic data
• Travel surveys
• Land use inventory
• Network data
Then the trip generation model is evolved which uses the above data to estimate the total
number of trips generated and attracted by each zone.

The trip distribution model is the allocation of these trips from each zone to various other
destination zones in the study area using trip distribution models.
The output of the above model is a trip matrix which denote the trips from each zone to every
other zones.
Gravity Model:

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Next, the Modal split or mode choice In the succeeding step the trips are allocated to different
modes based on the modal attributes using the modal split models.
model compute the probability of choosing mode m based on the travel cost.

Finally, each trip matrix is assigned to the route network of that particular mode using the trip
assignment models. The step will give the loading on each link of the network.
Similarly, the trip assignment or route choice gives the trips from zone A to zone H by mode
m through route r can be computed.

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Three Levels of Modeling
Macroscopic Model (Cube Voyager) – which mainly for understanding travel pattern and
assessing the need for transportation infrastructure such as highway and public transport. This is
to look into the transportation infrastructure needed in future years at the more strategic level. This
is also applied in individual project level, usually used for feasibility studies. This also used in
describing what the road alignment, where to put interchanges, and how many lanes needed for
the road.
The Characteristic of Macroscopic Model
• Traffic assignment model based on static user equilibrium approaches
• Planning models that applied on regional scale but have some incapability to model the
level of detail required in congested area
• Macro level modeling is the traffic modeling
• using the traffic flow
• Do not require extensive data
• Useful for route forecasting.

Mesoscopic model (Cube Avenue) – allows transportation planners analyze traffic congestion
and queues over time especially during peak periods. There was no major difference from
macroscopic model except mesoscopic model are model under the influence of time. It would
allow us to look into the impact of upstream traffic congestion and measure cueing in intersection
and merge points in the network. It can also simulate alternative infrastructure operations and
emergency evacuation plans and strategies.
The Characteristic of Mesoscopic Model
• Traffic assignment model based on dynamic user equilibrium approaches
• Operational model but can be applied on regional scale
• Meso level modeling is the traffic modeling of vehicle platoon / packets. The output is the
simulation of the packets. The size of the packets can be adjusted according to the
necessity. When the packets size is set to minimum, the modeling become like micro
simulation, on the other hand when the packet size is set to maximum, the modeling move
toward the macro simulation
• The data for this modeling is relatively the same with the data used in macroscopic level
• Can be used for route forecasting.

Traffic Microsimulation (Cube Dynasium) – traffic engineers can lay out every details of the
road and junctions of a study area and simulate the movement of individual vehicles and
pedestrians. These is for more sophisticated and detailed simulation model use in various project
such as parking facility circulation analysis and passenger and pedestrian movements.
The Characteristic of Microsimulation Model

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 • Traffic assignment model based on dynamic user equilibrium approaches
• Operational model that is suitable to be applied on a relatively small network but hardly to
be applied in the regional level
• Meso level modeling is the traffic modeling of individual vehicle. The output of this
modeling is simulation of individual vehicle
• Require extensive data
• This modeling is not suitable to be used for route forecasting.

Applications of Macroscopic Level Model

• Transportation Master Plan – Transport Infrastructure Needed in Future Years (Strategic)
• Regional Transportation Improvement Plan
• New Highway Improvement Feasibility Studies (Project Planning)
• Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast for Toll Expressways/ Bridges/ Tunnels (Financing)
• New Transit Services Feasibility Studies (Project Planning)
• Ridership and Revenue Forecasts for Transit Services: Buses, BRT, LRT, Metro
(Financing)
• Congestion Pricing Studies (Demand Management)

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 • Traffic Impact Analysis for Major Development Projects

Application of Mesoscopic Level Model

• Quantify impacts of upstream traffic congestion
• Measure queuing at intersections and merge points in a network
• Isolate secondary impacts from one intersection through another
• Evaluate the benefits of ITS (intelligent transportation system) projects
• Simulate alternative infrastructure, operational, and policy changes
• Emergency evacuation plans and strategies
• Test strategies to improve arrival and departure from stadiums and other special event
facilities

Applications of Microscopic Level Model

• Intersection geometry design
• Traffic signal operation plan
• Traffic circulation plan for major development site
• Road traffic safety analysis
• New Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Light-rail transit (LRT) alignment studies
• Multimodal transport integration
• Parking facilities circulation analysis
• Passengers/ pedestrians movements

References:

NA. (2021, April 15) “Introduction to Travel Demand Modelling”. Bentley Mobility
Simulation. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HW9o1R_m1M&t=400s
Rompis, S. (2018, January) “IMPACT OF TRAFFIC INCIDENT ON A NETWORK WIDE
LEVEL”. Retrieved from
https://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/jss/article/viewFile/18715/18259
Dr. M. Parida. (n.d.). Urban transportation planning, IIT Roorkee. NPTELIITM. Retrieved
October 25, 2022, from https://nptel.ac.in/courses/105107067
Creating Travel Demand Models. StreetLight Data. (2022, October 21). Retrieved October
27, 2022, from https://www.streetlightdata.com/creating-travel-demand
Prof. Tom V. Mathew. (2011, July 28). Introduction to Travel Demand Modeling.
Introduction to travel demand modeling. Retrieved October 27, 2022, from
https://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/tvm/1100_LnTse/201_lnTse/plain/plain.html

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