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6–6 Chapter 6 Discrete Probability Distributions

6.4 ASSESS YOUR UNDERSTANDING

Concepts and Vocabulary Applying the Concepts
1. Explain the similarities and differences between the hyperge- 17. Michigan’s Classic Lotto 47 In Michigan’s Classic Lotto 47
ometric probability distribution and the binomial probability NW Lottery, a player must choose 6 numbers between 1 and 47, in-
distribution. clusive. Six balls numbered from 1 and 47 are then randomly
2. What criteria must be satisfied for a random variable X to be selected from an urn. The random variable X represents the
a hypergeometric random variable? number of matching numbers.
(a) What is the probability of matching 3 numbers?
3. When listing the possible values of the hypergeometric ran-
(b) What is the probability of matching 4 numbers?
dom variable X, it must be the case that x is less than or equal
(c) What is the probability of matching 5 numbers?
to the smaller of n or k. Why?
(d) What is the probability of matching 6 numbers?
4. In your own words, explain the logic behind Formula (1). (e) A winning ticket is one in which the player matches 3, 4,
5, or 6 numbers. What is the probability of purchasing a
winning ticket? Would it be unusual to purchase a win-
Skill Building ning ticket?
In Problems 5–8, verify that the following probability experiments (f) What is the mean and standard deviation of the random
represent hypergeometric probability experiments. Then determine variable X? For a randomly selected ticket, how many
the values of N, n, k and list the possible values of the random numbers do you expect to match?
variable X.
18. Got a Pet? In a neighborhood of 95 homes, 35 have pets.
5. In Michigan’s Winfall Lottery, a player must choose 6 num- Suppose that 12 homes are selected at random. The random
NW bers between 1 and 49, inclusive. Six balls numbered variable X represents the number of homes in the sample
between 1 and 49 are then randomly selected from an urn. that have pets.
The random variable X represents the number of matching (a) What is the probability of obtaining 8 homes with a pet?
numbers. (b) What is the probability of obtaining 9 homes with a pet?
(c) What is the probability of obtaining 12 homes with a pet?
6. In a neighborhood of 95 homes, 35 have pets. Suppose that
Would it be unusual to select 12 homes that have a pet?
12 homes are selected at random. The random variable X
(d) What is the mean and standard deviation of the random
represents the number of homes in the sample that have
variable X?
pets.
19. Acceptance Sampling A manufacturer received an order of
7. A manufacturer received an order of 250 computer chips. 250 computer chips. Unfortunately, 12 of the chips are defec-
Unfortunately, 12 of the chips are defective. To test the tive. To test the shipment, the quality-control engineer ran-
shipment, the quality-control engineer randomly selects 20 domly selects 20 chips from the box of 250 and tests them.
chips from the box of 250 and tests them. The random vari- The random variable X represents the number of defective
able X represents the number of defective chips in the chips in the sample.
sample of 20.
(a) What is the probability of obtaining 4 defective chips?
8. A baseball team has 25 players, 7 of whom bat left-handed. (b) What is the probability of obtaining 3 defective chips?
Suppose that the manager of this team is frustrated with (c) What is the probability that the quality-control engineer
the way the team is playing, so he decides to randomly will not find any defective chips?
select 9 players to play in the upcoming game. The random (d) What is the probability of obtaining 14 defective chips?
variable X is the number of left-handed batters in the (e) How many defective chips would you expect to select?
game.
20. Baseball Lineup A baseball team has 25 players, 7 of whom
In Problems 9–12, a hypergeometric probability experiment is bat left-handed. Suppose that the manager of this team is
conducted with the given parameters. Compute the probability frustrated with the way the team is playing, so he decides to
of obtaining x successes. randomly select 9 players to play in the upcoming game. The
random variable X will be the number of left-handed batters
9. N = 150, n = 20, k = 30, x = 5 in the game.
10. N = 60, n = 8, k = 25, x = 3 (a) What is the probability of creating a lineup with 2 lefties?
(b) What is the probability of creating a lineup with 1 lefty?
11. N = 230, n = 15, k = 200, x = 12 (c) What is the probability of creating a lineup with no lefties?
12. N = 150, n = 10, k = 10, x = 1 (d) What is the probability of creating a lineup with 8 lefties?
(e) How many lefties would you expect to find in the lineup?
In Problems 13–16, compute the mean and standard deviation 21. Hung Jury A hung jury is one that is unable to come to a
of the hypergeometric random variable X. unanimous decision regarding the guilt of the defendant.
13. N = 150, n = 20, k = 30 Suppose that there is a pool of 30 potential jurors, but 2 of
the 30 potential jurors would never be willing to convict,
14. N = 60, n = 8, k = 25 regardless of the evidence presented. What is the proba-
bility that the trial will result in a hung jury, regardless of
15. N = 230, n = 15, k = 200
the evidence, if the jury consists of 12 randomly selected
16. N = 150, n = 10, k = 10 jurors?

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Section 6.4 The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 6–7

22. Messy Sock Drawer Suppose that you wake up for work in the inspection. What is the probability that the shipment is
the dark and find that the lights don’t work in your bed- accepted:
room. In addition, your sock drawer is a mess and contains (a) If 10% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
12 black socks and 17 blue socks that otherwise look alike. (b) If 20% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
What is the probability that you randomly select two black (c) If 40% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
socks if you select exactly 2 socks? (d) If 60% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
(e) If 80% of the 200 cylinders are defective?
23. Acceptance Sampling Suppose that a concrete manufactur-
(f) Draw a horizontal axis and label it Percent Defective.
er has made 200 concrete cylinders that are supposed to
Draw a vertical axis and label it Probability Accept Ship-
withstand 4,000 pounds per square inch of pressure. As the
ment. Plot probability accept shipment against the percent
quality-control manager, you decide to randomly test 4 of
defective and connect the points in a smooth curve. This
the cylinders to be sure they are manufactured to specifica-
curve is referred to as an operating characteristic curve.
tion. You will only accept the shipment if all 4 cylinders pass

TECHNOLOGY STEP-BY-STEP Computing Hypergeometric Probabilities

Using Technology

TI-83/84 Plus Excel

The TI-83/84 Plus graphing calculators do not have Computing P(x)
this feature. 1. If desired, enter the possible values of the random
variable X whose probability you wish to compute
MINITAB in column A. For example, if we want the probability
Computing P(x) that x = 0, 1, 2, or 3 in Example 3(a), we enter 0, 1, 2,
1. If desired, enter the possible values of the random and 3 into column A.
variable X whose probability you wish to compute in 2. With the cursor in cell B1, select the fx icon.
C1. For example, if we want the probability that x = 0, Highlight Statistical in the Function category window.
1, 2, or 3 in Example 3(a), we enter 0, 1, 2, and 3 into C1. Highlight HYPGEOMDIST in the Function name
Computing P (X ◊ x) window. Click OK.
Follow the same steps as for computing P1x2. 3. Fill in the window as shown to obtain the
In the window that comes up after selecting probabilities from Example 3(a). Click OK.
Hypergeometric Á , select the radio button for
Cumulative probability.
2. Select the Calc menu, highlight Probability
Distributions, then highlight Hypergeometric . . .
3. Fill in the window as shown to obtain the
probabilities from Example 3(a). Click OK.
Note that, if we only want P102, it is simplest to
select the Input constant: radio button and enter
0 in the box.

4. Copy the contents in cell B1 to the remaining cells.

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6.4 Assess Your Understanding Answers AN6–1

6.4 Assess Your Understanding (page 000)

5. N = 49, n = 6, k = 6, X = 0, 1, 2, Á , 6
7. N = 250, n = 20, k = 12, X = 0, 1, 2, Á , 12
9. 0.1856
11. 0.1939
13. mX = 4, sX = 1.67
15. mX = 13.0, sX = 1.26
17. (a) 0.01986
(b) 0.001146
(c) 0.0000229
(d) 0.000000093
(e) 0.02103
(f) 0.766; 0.772; 0.766
19. (a) 0.0087
(b) 0.0507
(c) 0.3590
(d) 0
(e) 0.96
21. 0.6483
23. (a) 0.6539
(b) 0.4065
(c) 0.1270
(d) 0.0245
(e) 0.0014
(f)
0.7
Probability Accept Shipment

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
20 40 60 80 100
Percent Defective

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