3-Statement Modeling

Table of Contents Model Checks

Outputs Model Exceeding Operational Capacity? No

Inputs Unused Tax Losses Remaining? No
Model Balanced Sheet Unbalanced? No

Model Circularity

Model Circularity 1

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Dashboard: Charts & Graphs

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

Driver Switch

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue 50,589 51,648 53,761 – – – – –

EBITDA 18,404 18,607 19,811 – – – – –

EBITDA Margin

Net Income 10,801 10,530 11,190 – – – – –

Net Income Margin

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Operating 15,656 16,012 17,391 – – – – –

Investing (9,015) (11,733) (11,130) – – – – –
Financing (3,465) (7,761) (7,216) – – – – –
Change in Cash

INCOME STATEMENT CASH FLOW STATEMENT

Revenue EBITDA Margin Net Income Margin 20,000 Investing Financing Operating Change in Cash
60,000 1,200.0%

15,000
50,000 1,000.0%
10,000

40,000 800.0% 5,000

–
30,000 600.0%
(5,000)

20,000 400.0% (10,000)

(15,000)
10,000 200.0%
(20,000)

– – (25,000)
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027A
Drivers

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

Driver Switch 2

Sales Volume Growth

Best Case 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5%

Base Case 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5%
Worst Case 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Pricing Increases

Best Case 3.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5%

Base Case 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
Worst Case 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Capital Expenditure

Best Case 23,000 6,450 6,600 6,900 7,200

Base Case 25,475 7,050 7,275 7,200 7,688
Worst Case 27,500 7,800 8,100 8,250 8,400
Other Inputs

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F

Working Capital
Accounts Receivable (Days) 45 45 45 45 45
Inventory (Days) 25 25 25 25 25
Accounts Payable (Days) 40 40 40 40 40

Other Annual Inputs

Inflation Rate 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5%
Term Debt Increase / (Decrease) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)
Common Equity Increase / (Decrease) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)

Dates Taxes
First Year of Forecast (YYYY) 2023 Tax Rate 30%
Days in Period 365 First Year Tax Depreciation 50%
Blended Tax Depreciation Rate 15.0%
Tax Basis for Assets (End of 2022) 39,211
Other Single Inputs Tax Losses (End of 2022) 2,657
Plant Capacity (Units/Day) 1,600
Dividend Payout Ratio 20%

Interest Rates Depreciation

Cash Balances 1.0% First Year Accounting Depreciation 50%
Revolving Credit Line 5.0% Useful Life: Existing Assets (Years) 16.00
Long Term Debt 6.0% Useful Life: New Assets (Years) 20.00
Income Statement

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Inflation 2.4% 2.2% 2.3%

Revenue 50,589 51,648 53,761

COGS (24,544) (25,104) (25,779)
Gross Profit 26,045 26,544 27,981

SG&A (5,877) (6,006) (6,144)

Other (1,764) (1,931) (2,026)
EBITDA 18,404 18,607 19,811

Depreciation (2,960) (3,196) (3,452)

EBIT 15,444 15,411 16,359

Interest Expense (1,688) (2,200) (2,350)

Interest Income 200 180 193
EBT 13,956 13,391 14,202

Current Tax – – –
Deferred Tax (3,155) (2,861) (3,012)
Total Tax (3,155) (2,861) (3,012)

Net Income 10,801 10,530 11,190

Cash Flow Statement

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

CASH FROM OPERATING

Net Income 10,801 10,530 11,190
Deferred Taxes 3,155 2,861 3,012
Depreciation 2,960 3,196 3,452
Cash From Accounts Receivable (600) 300 100
Cash From Inventory (400) (400) (200)
Cash From Accounts Payable (260) (475) (163)
Subtotal 15,656 16,012 17,391

CASH FROM INVESTING

Capital Expenditure (9,015) (11,733) (11,130)
Subtotal (9,015) (11,733) (11,130)

CASH FROM FINANCING

Change in Long-Term Debt - (4,000) (4,000)
Change in Revolving Credit Line - - -
Change in Common Equity - - -
Dividends (3,465) (3,761) (3,216)
Subtotal (3,465) (7,761) (7,216)

CASE BALANCE
Beginning of the Year 9,671 12,847 9,365
Increase / (Decrease) 3,176 (3,482) (955)
End of the Year 12,847 9,365 8,410
Balance Sheet

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

ASSETS

Cash 12,847 9,365 8,410

Accounts Receivable 5,708 6,333 6,624
Inventories 1,792 1,923 2,009
Total Current Assets 20,347 17,621 17,043

Property Plant & Equipment 59,192 67,729 75,407

Total Assets 79,539 85,350 92,450

LIABILITIES

Accounts Payable 3,024 3,205 3,319

Revolving Credit Line – – –
Total Current Liabilities 3,024 3,205 3,319

Deferred Taxes 4,155 7,016 10,028

Long-Term Debt 28,000 24,000 20,000
Total Liabilities 35,179 34,221 33,347

EQUITY

Common Equity 38,670 38,670 38,670

Retained Earnings 5,690 12,459 20,433
Total Shareholders' Equity 44,360 51,129 59,103

Total Liabilities & Equity 79,539 85,350 92,450

Check – – – – – – – –
Revenue Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

OPERATIONS

Sales Volume Growth

Sales Volume (Units/Day) 1,400 1,401 1,430

Plant Capacity (Units/Day) 1,500 1,500 1,500
Operational Efficiency 93.3%

VOLUME

Days in Period 365 365 365

Sales Volume (Units/Day)
Sales Volume (Units) – – –

PRICING

Pricing Increases
Unit Price (USD/Unit) 99.00 101.00 103.00

REVENUE

Sales Volume (Units)

Sales Price (USD/Unit)
Revenue

Operational Capacity Exceeded? No

Cost Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Sales Volume
Inflation

VARIABLE COSTS

Materials (USD/Unit) 9.50 9.72 9.91

Packaging (USD/Unit) 0.80 0.84 0.86
Subtotal

Materials
Packaging
Subtotal

FIXED COSTS

Labor (USD/Unit)
Utilities (USD/Unit)
Subtotal

Labor 15,630 15,973 16,341

Utilities 3,651 3,731 3,817
Subtotal

SUMMARY

Variable Costs (USD/Unit)

Fixed Costs (USD/Unit)
Total Costs (USD/Unit)

Variable Costs
Fixed Costs
Total Costs
Working Capital Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Days in Period
Revenue
COGS

AMOUNTS PER DAY

Accounts Receivable (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Accounts Payable (Days)

TOTAL AMOUNTS
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Accounts Payable

CASH CHANGES
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Accounts Payable
Cash from Working Capital Items
Depreciation Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Capital Expenditure

EXISTING ASSETS 1 Percent of Full Year

Useful Life (Years) 16.00 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5
PP&E (End of 2022) 75,407 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Percent of Full Year

NEW ASSETS 1
Year Life 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Useful Life (Years) 20.00 2023F 20.00 50% 100% 100% 100% 100%
First Year Amount 50% 2024F 20.00 – 50% 100% 100% 100%
2025F 20.00 – – 50% 100% 100%
2026F 20.00 – – – 50% 100%
2027F 20.00 – – – – 50%

Amounts for Depreciation

Year Capex Per Yr 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
2023F - - – – – – –
2024F - - – – – – –
2025F - - – – – – –
2026F - - – – – – –
2027F - - – – – – –

TOTAL ASSET DEPRECIATION 2

Existing Assets 4,713 4,713 4,713 4,713 4,713
New Assets – – – – –
Total Depreciation 4,713 4,713 4,713 4,713 4,713

All PP&E and capital expenditure is assumed depreciable (i.e. no land balance). ⁽¹⁾
This schedule calculates depreciation on a straight-line basis. ⁽²⁾
Asset Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Capital Expenditure – – – – –

First Year Tax Depreciation 50%

Blended Tax Depreciation Rate 15.0%

PROPERTY PLANT & EQUIPMENT 1

Beginning 75,407 70,694 65,981 61,268 56,555
Capital Expenditure – – – – –
Accounting Depreciation (4,713) (4,713) (4,713) (4,713) (4,713)
Ending 75,407 70,694 65,981 61,268 56,555 51,842

TAX BASIS 1
Beginning 39,211 33,329 28,330 24,080 20,468
Capital Expenditure – – – – –
Tax Depreciation (5,882) (4,999) (4,249) (3,612) (3,070)
Ending 39,211 33,329 28,330 24,080 20,468 17,398

Model assumes no dispositions that would impact the PP&E or the Tax Basis. ⁽¹⁾
Income Tax Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

Earnings Before Tax (EBT) – – – – –

Profitable Before Taxes? No No Yes Yes Yes

Tax Rate 30%

Unused Tax Losses Remaining? No

ADJUSTMENT FOR DEPRECIATION

EBT – – – – –
Add: Accounting Depreciation 4,713 4,713 4,713 4,713 4,713
Less: Tax Depreciation (5,882) (4,999) (4,249) (3,612) (3,070)
EBT After Adjustment (1,169) (286) 463 1,101 1,643

ADJUSTMENT FOR TAX LOSSES 1

EBT After Adjustment (1,169) (286) 463 1,101 1,643
Less: Use of Tax Losses 2 – – (463) (1,101) (1,093)
Taxable Income – – – – 550

TAX LOSSES
Beginning 2,657 2,657 2,657 2,194 1,093
Add: New Losses – – – – –
Less: Use of Tax Losses – – (463) (1,101) (1,093)
Ending 2,657 2,657 2,657 2,194 1,093 –

TAXES
Current Taxes – – – – 165
Deferred Taxes – – – – (165)
Total Taxes – – – – –

This schedule assumes that tax losses can be carried forward indefinitely into the future. ⁽¹⁾
This schedule assumes losses do not carry back to previous periods to reduce taxable income. ⁽²⁾
Debt Schedule: Part 1

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

CASH

Beginning Balance
Increase / (Decrease)
Ending Balance

Interest Rate Circularity 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Interest Income

LONG TERM DEBT

Beginning Balance
Increase / (Decrease) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)
Ending Balance

Interest Rate 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Interest Expense
Debt Schedule: Part 2

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

AVAILABLE CASH

Beginning Cash Balance

Cash from Operations
Cash from Investing
Change in Long-Term Debt
Change in Common Equity
Dividends
Cash Available for Revolving Credit Line

REVOLVING CREDIT LINE

Beginning Balance
Increase / (Decrease)
Ending Balance

Interest Rate Circularity 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Interest Expense

Interest Expense
Less: Interest Income
Net Interest Expense
Equity Schedule

All figures in USD thousands unless stated 2022A 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F
Model Running: Base Case Drivers

COMMON EQUITY

Beginning Balance
Increase / (Decrease) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000)
Ending Balance

Net Income
Payout Ratio 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Dividend

RETAINED EARNINGS

Beginning Balance
Net Income
Dividends
Ending Balance