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Decision Science Assignment

Part 1 - The document discusses Bayes' rule and probability trees. It provides the prior probabilities of three individuals (Amira, Biyas, Chinar) being on time, and the conditional probabilities of being on time given each individual. It calculates the joint, revised, and marginal probabilities. Part 2 - It calculates the probability that the airline was Amira, given that it was on time, as 0.59 using the values from the table. Part 3 - The summary output includes the regression statistics, ANOVA table, and coefficients table from a regression analysis with one independent variable. It provides the r-squared value, p-values, and interpretations of the tables.

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Shivani Mallik
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
35 views

Decision Science Assignment

Part 1 - The document discusses Bayes' rule and probability trees. It provides the prior probabilities of three individuals (Amira, Biyas, Chinar) being on time, and the conditional probabilities of being on time given each individual. It calculates the joint, revised, and marginal probabilities. Part 2 - It calculates the probability that the airline was Amira, given that it was on time, as 0.59 using the values from the table. Part 3 - The summary output includes the regression statistics, ANOVA table, and coefficients table from a regression analysis with one independent variable. It provides the r-squared value, p-values, and interpretations of the tables.

Uploaded by

Shivani Mallik
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Answer 1

Part 1-
Tree diagram: The tree diagram is a common way to solve problems based on
Bayes’ rule
Let A= Amira Let B= Biyas Let C= Chinar Let T= On time rate
P(A)= 0.50 P(B)= 0.30 P(C)= 0.20
P(T|A)= 0.80 P(T|B)= 0.65 P(T|C)= 0.40

The following table shows the prior probability, conditional probability, joint
probability, and marginal probability, P(X), and how it can be used to revise the prior
probabilities to obtain posterior probability.
Event Prior Conditional Joint Revised
P(Ei) P(X | Ei) P(X ∩ Ei) probability
A 0.50 0.80 0.4 0.59
B 0.30 0.65 0.195 0.28
C 0.20 0.40 0.08 0.59
P(X)= 0.675

X (0.80) 0.4

Y (0.20) 0.1
A
0.50 X (0.65) 0.195
B
0.30 Y (0.35) 0.105
C
0.20 X (0.40)0 0.08

Y (0.60) 0.12

PROBABILITY TREE DIAGRAM


Part 2-
The probability of an airline that left on time is Amira can be calculated from the
above-mentioned table

𝑃(𝑋 ∩ 𝐸𝑖)
𝑃(𝑋)
0.4
Mentioning the value we get: = 0.59
0.675
Therefore, the probability of the airline Amira leaving on time is 0.59

Answer 2
Part 1-
Dependent variable: The predictor or the outcome variable is called the dependent or
response variable. It is designated as “𝑦”.
Independent variable: The risk factors or cofounders are known as predictors where
the predictor is called as the independent variable or explanatory variable. It is
designated as “𝑥”
Part 2-
Regression model equation: 𝒚 = 𝒎𝒙 + 𝒃
Where,
𝒎= Slope of the line
𝒃= 𝑦 intercept of the line
Part 3-
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.918105
R Square 0.842917
Adjusted R
Square 0.823281
Standard
Error 1052.491
Observations 10

ANOVA
Significance
df SS MS F F
Regression 1 47553283 47553283 42.92833 0.000178
Residual 8 8861892 1107737
Total 9 56415176
Standard Upper Lower Upper
Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept -312.341 1624.387 -0.19228 0.852312 -4058.18 3433.503 -4058.18 3433.503
X Variable 1 0.146415 0.022347 6.551972 0.000178 0.094883 0.197946 0.094883 0.197946

Part 4-
Interpretation of the regression table and ANOVA table:
Regression statistics, standard error= 1052.491

The 𝑟 2 value is given = 0.842917

The 𝑡 test for the slope is under 𝑡 stat near the bottom of the ANOVA section where
𝑡= 6.551972
Adjacent to the 𝑡 stat is the 𝑝-value, which is the probability of the 𝑡 statistic
occurring by chance if the null hypothesis is true. The probability shown here is
0.000178
The ANOVA table is in the middle with the 𝑓 value having the same probability as the
𝑡 statistic which is 0.000178

Answer 3 (a)
The binomial distribution is one of the widely known distributions of the discreet
distribution.
In the given question;

The value of 𝑝 is 0.75 (like Reels)

The value of 𝑞 is 1-𝑝= 1-0.75= 0.25 (dislike Reels)


𝑛= 25
Part (a):
𝑛= 25
𝒙= 15
Applying the binomial formula

C15(0.75)15 (0.25)10 = (3268760) . (0.0133) . (0.0000009536) = 0.0414


25

Part (b):
𝑛= 25
𝒙= 20
Applying the binomial formula

C20(0.75)20 (0.25)5 = (53130) . (0.003171) . (0.000976) = 0.1644


25
Answer 3 (b)
Given;
Mean= 10,000
Standard deviation: 2400
Part (a):
𝑥−𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 12000−10000
𝑧= = = 0.83
𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 2400
𝑃(𝑥 > 12000)= 0.2033

Part (b):

𝑥 = 9000
𝑥−𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 9000−10000
𝑧= = = -0.46
𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 2400
𝑃(𝑥 < 9000)= 0.3385

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