STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

STA201 Lecture-13
Introduction to Random Variables and Mathematical Expectation

13.1 – Introduction to Random Variables

13.1.1 - Random Variables
What are Random Variables?
A random variable is a variable that takes on numerical values as a result of a random experiment or
measurement, and associates a probability with each possible outcome.
Mathematically, a random variable is a real-valued function defined over a sample space.
Random variables are generally denoted by uppercase letters, such as X, Y, Z etc.
Example:
Consider the experiment of flipping two fair coins.
The possible outcomes are: S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Let X = The number of heads
So, X = {0, 1, 2}
And the probabilities associated with each value of X can be represented by the following table:

X=x 0 1 2

P(X = x) 1/4 2/4 1/4

Types of Random Variables:

Discrete Random Variables: A discrete random variable is a random variable whose possible values
either constitutes a finite set of values or an infinite sequence of numbers that is a countably infinite
set of numbers. Example:
• X = The number of cars crossing an intersection every hour
• X = The number of phone calls received per day at a call centre
Continuous Random Variable: A random variable is said to be continuous whose possible values
consists of either all values of a small interval on real number line or all numbers in a disjoint union of
such intervals (e.g. [0, 5] U [10, 15]). Continuous random variables can represent any value within a
specified range or interval and can take on an infinite number of possible values. Example:
• X = The time taken to serve a customer at a call centre
• X = The daily temperature at noon

1
STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

13.1.2 - Probability Functions of Random Variables:

Probability Mass Function (PMF)
The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is known as discrete probability distribution.
If 𝑋 is a discrete random variable with possible values 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛 , where each value has a
corresponding probability 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 ); 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛 , the probability mass function 𝑓(𝑥) of 𝑋 is
defined by
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 ); 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 , 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛
𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) = {
0; 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
And has following properties:
1. 0 ≤ 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) ≤ 1 for all xi
2. ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) = 1

Example 1:
Consider the experiment of flipping two fair coins.
Let X = The number of heads
So, X = {0, 1, 2}
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥𝑖 ); 𝑥𝑖 = 0, 1, 2
𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) = {
0; 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒

𝒙𝒊 0 1 2

1 1 1
𝒇(𝒙𝒊 ) 4 2 4

Example 2:
Let X be a random variable with probability function defined as follows:

𝒙𝒊 2 4 6 8

𝒇(𝒙𝒊 ) 2/10 1/10 4/10 3/10

1
1. 𝑃(𝑥 = 4) =
10
4 3 7
2. 𝑃(𝑥 > 4) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 6) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 8) = 10 + 10 = 10
2 1 4 7
3. 𝑃(𝑥 ≤ 6) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 2) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 6) = 10 + 10 + 10 = 10
1 4 3 8
4. 𝑃(2 < 𝑥 ≤ 8) = 𝑃(𝑋 = 4) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 6) + 𝑃(𝑋 = 8) = 10 + 10 + 10 = 10
5. 𝑃(𝑥 = 3) = 0

2
STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

Probability Density Function (PDF)

The probability distribution of a continuous random variable is known as continuous probability
distribution
If 𝑋 is a continuous random variable, the probability density function 𝑓(𝑥) of 𝑋 is a function such that
for any two numbers a and b with a ≤ b
𝑏

𝑃[𝑎 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 𝑏] = ∫ 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
𝑎

That is, the probability that X takes on a value in the interval [a, b] is equivalent to the area below the
graph of 𝑓(𝑋) between the interval [a, b]. The graph of 𝑓(𝑋) is often referred to as the density curve.

And a valid PDF 𝑓(𝑋) has the following properties

1. 𝑓(𝑋) ≥ 0
∞
2. ∫−∞ 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥 = 1
Note: The value of P(X) for any point value of X, say X=k, will always be 0. That is,
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑘) = 0; 𝑘∈𝑋

Example:
The probability density function of a random variable 𝑋 is defined as
𝑥; 0≤𝑥<1
𝑓(𝑥) = {2 − 𝑥; 1≤𝑥<2
0; 𝑥≥2
Find 𝑃[0.5 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1.5]
1.5
Sol: 𝑃(0.5 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1.5) = ∫0.5 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
1 1.5
= ∫0.5 𝑥 ⅆ𝑥 + ∫1 (2 − 𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
1 1.5
𝑥2 𝑥2
=[2] + [2𝑥 − ]
0.5 2 1
3
= 4

3
STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

13.2 – Mathematical Expectation of Random Variables

13.2.1 - Expectation of Discrete Random Variables:
Mathematical Expectation
Let 𝑋 be a random variable with probability function 𝑓(𝑥) (if 𝑋 is discrete), or density function 𝑓(𝑥)
(if 𝑋 is continuous). Let 𝑔(𝑥) be a function of the random variable 𝑋. Then, the mathematical
expectation of the random variable 𝑔(𝑥) is defined by

∑ 𝑔(𝑥) ∙ 𝑓(𝑥); 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 ⅆ𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒

𝐸[𝑔(𝑥)] = {
∫ 𝑔(𝑥) ∙ 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥; 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠

𝐸[𝑔(𝑥)] is also known as the expected value of 𝑔(𝑥), or the mean of the distribution of 𝑔(𝑥).

Expectation of Discrete Random Variable

Let 𝑋 be a discrete random variable which can take a finite or infinite sequence of possible values
𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , … , 𝑥𝑛 , … with corresponding probabilities 𝑓(𝑥1 ), 𝑓(𝑥2 ), … , 𝑓(𝑥𝑛 ), … ; then the
mathematical expectation of the random variable 𝑋, denoted by 𝜇 is defined as
𝑛

𝜇 = 𝐸[𝑋] = ∑ 𝑥𝑖 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) ; 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑒

𝑖=1
∞

𝜇 = 𝐸[𝑋] = ∑ 𝑥𝑖 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) ; 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑒

𝑖=1

Example 1:
Let X e a random variable with probability function defined as follows:

𝒙 2 4 6 8

𝒇(𝒙) 1/10 4/10 3/10

2/10

What is the expected value of X?

Solution:
𝐸(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥𝑖 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 )
= (2 × 2/10) + (4 × 1/10) + (6 × 4/10) + (8 × 3/10)
= 5.6
Example 2:
Imagine a game in which, on any play, a player has a 20% chance of winning Tk. 30 and an 80% chance
of losing Tk. 10. What is the expected gain/loss of the player in the long run?

Solution: Let X = the gain on a play

𝐸(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥𝑖 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 ) 𝒙 30 -10

= (30 × 0.2) + (-10 ×0.8) 𝒇(𝒙) 0.2 0.8

= -2

4
STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

Example 3:
If the random variable X is the top face of a tossed, fair, six-sided die, what is the expected value of X?
Solution:
X = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
f(x)= 1/6; for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

𝒙 1 2 3 4 5 6

𝒇(𝒙) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

𝐸(𝑥) = ∑ 𝑥𝑖 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥𝑖 )
= (1× 1/6) + (2× 1/6) + (3× 1/6) + (4× 1/6) + (5× 1/6) + (6× 1/6)
= 3.5

Note: Simulation for the expectation of a die: https://www.geogebra.org/m/JHg7VJUk

5
STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

13.2.2 - Expectation of Continuous Random Variables:

Expectation of Continuous Random Variables
Let 𝑋 be a continuous random variable with probability density function 𝑓(𝑥); then the mathematical
expectation of the random variable 𝑋, denoted by 𝜇 is defined as
∞

𝜇 = 𝐸[𝑋] = ∫ 𝑥 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
−∞

Example 1:
Suppose 𝑋 is a continuous random variable with probability density function
2𝑥, 0 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 1
𝑓(𝑥) = {
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
What is the expected value of 𝑋?
Solution:
1
𝐸(𝑥) = ∫0 𝑥. 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
1
= ∫0 𝑥. 2𝑥 ⅆ𝑥
1
= ∫0 2𝑥 2 ⅆ𝑥
1
2𝑥 3
=[ ]
3 0

= 2/3

Example 2:
The probability density function of a random variable 𝑋 is defined as
𝑥; 0≤𝑥<1
𝑓(𝑥) = {2 − 𝑥; 1≤𝑥<2
0; 𝑥≥2
What is the expected value of 𝑋?
Solution:
∞
𝐸(𝑥) = ∫−∞ 𝑥. 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
2
= ∫0 𝑥. 𝑓 (𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
1 2
= ∫0 𝑥. 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥 + ∫1 𝑥. 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
1 2
= ∫0 𝑥 2 ⅆ𝑥 + ∫1 𝑥. (2 − 𝑥) ⅆ𝑥
1 2
= ∫0 𝑥 2 ⅆ𝑥 + ∫1 2𝑥 − 𝑥 2 ⅆ𝑥
1 2
𝑥3 𝑥3
= [ 3 ] + [𝑥 2 − ]
0 3 1

=1

6
STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

13.2.3 - Properties of Mathematical Expectation:

Expectation of Functions of a Random Variable
Let 𝑋 be a random variable with probability function 𝑓(𝑥). Let 𝑔(𝑥) be a function of the random
variable 𝑋. Then, the mathematical expectation of the function 𝑔(𝑥) is defined by

∑ 𝑔(𝑥) ∙ 𝑓(𝑥); 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 ⅆ𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒

𝐸[𝑔(𝑥)] = {
∫ 𝑔(𝑥) ∙ 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥; 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠

For example, for a random variable 𝑋 with probability function 𝑓(𝑥), the expected value of 𝑋 2 is

∑ 𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥); 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 ⅆ𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒
𝐸[𝑋 2 ] ={
∫ 𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑓(𝑥) ⅆ𝑥; 𝑖𝑓 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑢𝑜𝑢𝑠

Linearity of Expectation
Let 𝑋 and 𝑌 be two random variables, and let 𝑐 be a constant.
Consequently, 𝐸[𝑋] and 𝐸[𝑌] are the expected values of 𝑋 and 𝑌 respectively
Then, the following properties are true:
• 𝐸[𝑐] = 𝑐
• 𝐸[𝑐𝑋] = 𝑐 𝐸[𝑋]
• 𝐸[𝑋 + 𝑐] = 𝐸[𝑋] + 𝑐
• 𝐸[𝑋 + 𝑌] = 𝐸[𝑋] + 𝐸[𝑌]
• 𝐸[𝑋 − 𝑌] = 𝐸[𝑋] − 𝐸[𝑌]

Multiplicity of Expectation
Let 𝑋 and 𝑌 be two independent random variables, and 𝐸[𝑋] and 𝐸[𝑌] are the expected values of 𝑋
and 𝑌 respectively.
Then,
𝐸 [𝑋𝑌 ] = 𝐸 [𝑋] ∙ 𝐸[𝑌]

7
STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

13.2.4 - Variance of Random Variables

Variance
𝜎 2 = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝐸[𝑋 − 𝐸(𝑋)]2 = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − [𝐸(𝑋)]2 = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − 𝜇2

Standard Deviation
2
𝜎 = 𝑆𝐷(𝑋) = √𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋)

Example:
You want to open a new Café. After your market research, you found that 20% of similar cafés make
a monthly loss of Tk. 50,000, 30% of them make no profit or loss, 40% make a profit of Tk. 50,000, and
10% of them make a profit of Tk. 150, 000.
a) What is your expected profit if you decide to open a new Café?
b) What is the standard deviation in your profit amount?
c) If your fixed cost increases by Tk. 10,000, what will be your new expected profit?
Solution: Let X = profit amount

𝑿 = 𝒙 -50,000 0 50,000 150,000

𝒇(𝒙) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1

a) 𝐸(𝑋) = (−50,000 × 0.2) + (0 × 0.3) + (50,000 × 0.4) + (1,50,000 × 0.1) = 25000

b) 𝜎 2 = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝐸(𝑋 2 ) − [𝐸(𝑋)]2

𝐸[𝑋 2 ] = (−50,0002 × 0.2 ) + (02 × 0.3 ) + (50,0002 × 0.4 ) + (1,50,0002 × 0.1 )
= 3750000000
∴ 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) = 𝜎 2 = 3750000000 – (25000)2 = 3125000000
∴ 𝑆𝐷(𝑋) = 𝜎 = √3125000000 = 55901.69944

c) 𝐸(𝑋 − 10000) = 𝐸(𝑋)– 𝐸(10000) = 𝐸(𝑋)– 10000 = 25000 − 10000 = 15000

Properties of Variance
Let 𝑋 and 𝑌 be two independent random variables, and 𝑉𝑎𝑟[𝑋] and 𝑉𝑎𝑟[𝑌] are the variances of 𝑋
and 𝑌 respectively. Let 𝑐 be a constant.
Then, the following properties are true:
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑐) = 0
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑐 𝑋) = 𝑐 2 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑥)
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑋 + 𝑐) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑥)
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑋 + 𝑌) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) + 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑌)
• 𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑋 − 𝑌) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) + 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑌)

8
STA201 – Elements of Statistics and Probability Lecture 13 Notes

Practice Problems
Probability & Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences (Devore)
Random Variables (Basic Concept)
Page 95-96: 7

Discrete Random Variables

Page 104-105: 11(a, c), 13, 15(a, b), 17, 19, 27
Page 113-114: 29, 35, 37, 39

Continuous Random Variables

Page 142-143: 3, 5, 7
Page 150-152: 15(b, e, f), 21, 23