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Decision Science

The document discusses various statistical measures including mean, standard deviation, and correlation coefficient. It provides calculations of these measures for different datasets relating to migration, MSMEs, companies, and cattle/buffalo populations in India. It also discusses time series analysis techniques for understanding trends in longitudinal data like moving averages and exponential smoothing. Long term variations represent gradual trends over long periods, while seasonal variations are regular cyclical patterns within shorter time frames.

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Sourav Saraswat
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33 views9 pages

Decision Science

The document discusses various statistical measures including mean, standard deviation, and correlation coefficient. It provides calculations of these measures for different datasets relating to migration, MSMEs, companies, and cattle/buffalo populations in India. It also discusses time series analysis techniques for understanding trends in longitudinal data like moving averages and exponential smoothing. Long term variations represent gradual trends over long periods, while seasonal variations are regular cyclical patterns within shorter time frames.

Uploaded by

Sourav Saraswat
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Answer 1a) α = 0.

The mean absolute difference is a measure of statistical dispersion equal to the average
absolute difference of two independent values drawn from a probability distribution.

Mean squared error (MSE) measures error in statistical models by using the average squared
difference between observed and predicted values.

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)


MAE = 1 ∑|ei| = 29.0565 = 1.7092
n 17

 2. Mean squared error (MSE)


MSE = 1 ∑|e2i| = 56.158 = 3.3034
n 17
2. α = 0.4

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)


MAE = 1 ∑|ei| = 17.7455 = 1.0439
n 17

 2. Mean squared error (MSE)


MSE = 1 ∑|e2i| = 21.0633 = 1.239
n 17

3. α = 0.6
1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)
MAE = 1 ∑|ei| = 12.823 = 0.7543
n 17

 2. Mean squared error (MSE)


MSE = 1 ∑|e2i| = 11.648 = 0.6852
n 17

4. α = 0.8

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)


MAE = 1 ∑|ei| = 10.1755 = 0.5986
n 17

 2. Mean squared error (MSE)


MSE = 1 ∑|e2i| = 7.8565 = 0.4621
n 17

The larger the MAD, the greater variability there is in the data (the data is more spread out).
The MAD helps determine whether the set's mean is a useful indicator of the values within
the set. The larger the MAD, the less relevant is the mean as an indicator of the values within
the set. There is no correct value for MSE. Simply put, the lower the value the better and 0
means the model is perfect.
Answer 2a) Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) &
Total MSMEs

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 9291276/32 = 290352.38

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 53998548/32 = 1687454.63


R Calculation
r = ∑((X – Mean of X)*(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑(X- Mean of X)^2*∑(Y- Mean of Y)^2)

r = 18814384995527.5 /√((5435122693787.5)*(129961899948544))
r = 0.7079
B) Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Active
Companies

Mean is the average of the given numbers and is calculated by dividing the sum of given
numbers by the total number of numbers.

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 1202839/32 = 37588.71875


Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 53998548/32 = 1687454.63

The Correlation Coefficient (r) - The sample correlation coefficient (r) is a measure of the
closeness of association of the points in a scatter plot to a linear regression line based on
those points,

R Calculation
r = ∑((X – Mean of X)*(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑(X- Mean of X)^2*∑(Y- Mean of Y)^2)
r = 3254361431929.63 / √((111961850150.47)(129961899948544))
r = 0.8531
C) Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & 2017-18
GSDP -CURRENT PRICES (` in Crore)

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 9291276/32 = 290352.38


Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 1202839/32 = 37588.71875

R Calculation
r = ∑((X – Mean of X)*(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑(X- Mean of X)^2*∑(Y- Mean of Y)^2)
r = 478543377211.375/ √(( 5435122693787.5)(111961850150.469))
r = 0.6135
Answer 3a
Mean is the average of the given numbers and is calculated by dividing the sum of given
numbers by the total number of numbers.

Standard deviation is a statistic that measures the dispersion of a dataset relative to its mean
and is calculated as the square root of the variance. The standard deviation is calculated as the
square root of variance by determining each data point's deviation relative to the mean.

Calculation of mean and standard deviation of Number of Indigenous (Desi) Total Cattle

Mean of X = ∑X/N
= 1275303/13
= 98100
Standard deviation of X
σ = √∑dx2 – {(∑dx)^2}/n
n
= √ 28534357001 – {(3)^2}/13
13
= √ 28534357001-0.6923
13
= √ 28534357000.3077
13
= √ 2194950538.4852
= 46850.2992
Calculation of mean and standard deviation of Total Buffalo

Mean of Y = Total of Y/N


= 866318/13
= 66640

Standard deviation of Y
σ = √∑dy2 – {(∑dy)^2}/n
n
= √ 39413833430 – {(-2)^2}/13
13
= √ 39413833430 -0.3077
13
= √ 39413833429.6923
13
= √ 3031833340.7456
= 55062.0862

B) A time series is a type of data that is longitudinal in nature, which can be used to analyze
trends and patterns, and to create model and ultimate predictions, based on the historical
behavior of the data. The most common time series analysis techniques are moving averages,
exponential smoothing and linear trend with seasonality.

Beyond the simple models, some extremely complex time series analysis can be computed,
depending of the complexity of the behavior and patterns exhibited by the time series data.
Also, the accuracy of time series forecasting depends on the complexity of the data and the
appropriateness of the model used.

Long Term Variation is the trend followed by the given data. It is a longer-term change. Here
we take into account the number of observations available and make a subjective assessment
of what is long term. It represents a relatively smooth, steady, and gradual movement of a
time series in the same direction. To understand the meaning of the long term, consider the
climate variables. These variables sometimes exhibit cyclic variation over a very long time
period such as 50 years. If one just had 20 years of data, this long term oscillation would
appear to be a trend, but if several hundreds of years of data are available, then long term
oscillations would be visible. These movements are systematic in nature where the
movements are broad, steady, showing a slow rise or fall in the same direction. The trend
may be linear or non-linear (curvilinear). Some examples of secular trends are:
 Increase in prices,
 Increase in pollution,
 An increase in the need for wheat,
 An increase in literacy rate,
 The decrease in deaths due to advances in science. Taking averages over a certain
period is a simple way of detecting a trend in seasonal data. Change in averages with
time is evidence of a trend in the given series. There are more formal tests for
detecting a trend in time series.

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