Optimization Techniques in Pharmaceutical Formulation and Processing

What is a null hypothesis?

All statistical tests have a null hypothesis. For most tests, the null hypothesis is that there is no
relationship between your variables of interest or that there is no difference among groups.

For example, in a two-tailed t test, the null hypothesis is that the difference between two groups
is zero.

Example: Null and alternative hypothesis, You want to know whether there is a difference in
longevity between two groups of mice fed on different diets, diet A and diet B. You can
statistically test the difference between these two diets using a two-tailed t test.

 Null hypothesis (H0): there is no difference in longevity between the two groups.
 Alternative hypothesis (HA or H1): there is a difference in longevity between the two
groups.

What exactly is a p value?

The p value, or probability value, tells you how likely it is that your data could have occurred
under the null hypothesis. It does this by calculating the likelihood of your test statistic, which
is the number calculated by a statistical test using your data.

The p value tells you how often you would expect to see a test statistic as extreme or more
extreme than the one calculated by your statistical test if the null hypothesis of that test was
true. The p value gets smaller as the test statistic calculated from your data gets further away
from the range of test statistics predicted by the null hypothesis.

The p value is a proportion: if your p value is 0.05, that means that 5% of the time you would
see a test statistic at least as extreme as the one you found if the null hypothesis was true.

Strictly speaking a 95% confidence interval means that if we were to take 100 different samples
and compute a 95% confidence interval for each sample, then approximately 95 of the 100
confidence intervals will contain the true mean value (μ). In practice, however, we select one
random sample and generate one confidence interval, which may or may not contain the true
mean. The observed interval may over- or underestimate μ. Consequently, the 95% CI is the
likely range of the true, unknown parameter. The confidence interval does not reflect the
variability in the unknown parameter. Rather, it reflects the amount of random error in the
sample and provides a range of values that are likely to include the unknown parameter.
Another way of thinking about a confidence interval is that it is the range of likely values of
the parameter (defined as the point estimate + margin of error) with a specified level of
confidence (which is similar to a probability).

Suppose we want to generate a 95% confidence interval estimate for an unknown population
mean. This means that there is a 95% probability that the confidence interval will contain the

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true population mean. Thus, P( [sample mean] - margin of error < μ < [sample mean] + margin
of error) = 0.95.

Is a 0.05 P-value Significant?

A p-value less than 0.05 is typically considered to be statistically significant, in which case
the null hypothesis should be rejected. A p-value greater than 0.05 means that deviation
from the null hypothesis is not statistically significant, and the null hypothesis is not
rejected.1

What Does a P-value of 0.001 Mean?

A p-value of 0.001 indicates that if the null hypothesis tested were indeed true, then there
would be a one-in-1,000 chance of observing results at least as extreme. This leads the
observer to reject the null hypothesis because either a highly rare data result has been
observed or the null hypothesis is incorrect.

Each analysis that computes P values gives you four choices:

 APA (American Psychological Association) style, which shows three digits but omits
the leading zero (.123). P values less than 0.001 shown as "< .001". All P values less
than 0.001 are summarized with three asterisks, with no possibility of four asterisks.
 NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine) style, which shows three digits and includes
the leading zero (0.123). P values less than 0.001 shown as "< .001". All P values less
than 0.001 are summarized with three asterisks, with no possibility of four asterisks.
 GraphPad style which reports four digits after the decimal point with a leading zero
(0.1234). P values less than 0.0001 shown as "< .0001". P values less than 0.001 are
summarized with three asterisks, and P values less than 0.0001 are summarized with
four asterisks.
 Choose how many digits you want to see after the decimal point, up to 15. P values less
than 0.001 are given three asterisks, and P values less than 0.0001 are given four
asterisks.
Symbol Meaning
ns P > 0.05
* P ≤ 0.05
** P ≤ 0.01
*** P ≤ 0.001
P ≤ 0.0001 (For the
****
last two choices only)

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T test

Definition

A one-tailed test results from an alternative hypothesis which specifies a direction. i.e. when
the alternative hypothesis states that the parameter is in fact either bigger or smaller than the
value specified in the null hypothesis.

A two-tailed test results from an alternative hypothesis which does not specify a direction. i.e.
when the alternative hypothesis states that the null hypothesis is wrong.

One-tailed Tests

A one-tailed test may be either left-tailed or right-tailed.

A left-tailed test is used when the alternative hypothesis states that the true value of the
parameter specified in the null hypothesis is less than the null hypothesis claims.

A right-tailed test is used when the alternative hypothesis states that the true value of the
parameter specified in the null hypothesis is greater than the null hypothesis claims

Two-tailed Tests

The main difference between one-tailed and two-tailed tests is that one-tailed tests will only
have one critical region whereas two-tailed tests will have two critical regions. If we require
a 100(1−α)% confidence interval we have to make some adjustments when using a two-tailed
test.

The confidence interval must remain a constant size, so if we are performing a two-tailed test,
as there are twice as many critical regions then these critical regions must be half the size. This
means that when we read the tables, when performing a two-tailed test, we need to
consider α/2 rather than α.

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How to perform t test in excel

=T.TEST(Q19:Q24,R19:R24,2,1)
Type 1 means before and after treatment
Type 2 means entirely different set of groups

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