P1 Course Notes
P1 Course Notes
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Syllabus A: Cost Accounting For Decision And Control
Syllabus A1. Different Rationales For Costing
1. plan the activities (e.g.) plan number of units to produce this year
3. control the activities (e.g.) control amount of materials being used for production
4. evaluate the activities (e.g.) evaluate whether more/less materials were used per
unit in comparison to the original plan
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Reports may be:
Cost accounting and management accounting are terms which are often used
interchangeably.
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Financial accounting vs Management accounting
financial statements
monetary information
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Strategic Planning
Senior management formulate long-term (e.g. 5 to 10 years) objectives and plans for an
organisation.
Such plans include overall profitability, the profitability of different segments of the
business, capital equipment needs and so on.
It can also include qualitative information, for example, plans to enter into a new market,
or create a new product.
Tactical Planning
Senior management make medium-term, more detailed plans for the next year
e.g. decide how the resources of the business should be employed, and to monitor how
they are being and have been employed.
Operational Planning
'Front-line' managers such as foremen or senior clerks have to ensure that specific
tasks are planned and carried out properly within a factory or office.
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Cost Transformation And Management
‘The CGMA Cost Transformation Model is designed to help businesses to achieve and
maintain cost competitiveness.
It serves as a practical and logical planning and control framework for transforming and
managing a business’ cost-competitiveness.’ (CGMA, 2016)
Framework
• Understand and manage risks that could prevent a business achieving its cost
transformation and management objectives
• Understand how their products and services create value for customers to avoid
losing customers, or having to accept a lower price
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‘Incorporating Sustainability To Optimise Profits'
• Avoiding unnecessary costs will increase profit, for example, reducing machining
steps could reduce material waste, power consumption and tool wear
• Regularly review cost systems to ensure the output supports the needs of decision
makers
This model helps cost reduction exercises by providing a framework as a useful starting
place
However, it may be too rigid for some organisations which means that time will be spent
considering things that are not necessary.
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Area of Responsibility
Each manager must have a well-defined area of responsibility and the authority to make
decisions within that area.
Cost centre
A cost centre manager is responsible for, and has control over, the costs incurred in the
cost centre.
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A performance report for a cost centre:
• - the actual costs are compared with a budget that has been flexed to the actual
activity level achieved.
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Revenue centre
Revenue centre managers should normally have control over how revenues are raised
Profit centre
A profit centre is a part of the business for which both costs and revenues are identified
The budget for the sales revenue and variable cost of sales will be flexed according to
the activity level achieved
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A profit centre performance report:
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Investment centre
The amount of capital employed in an investment centre should consist only of directly
attributable non-current assets and working capital (net current assets)
Cost centres, revenue centres, profit centres and investment centres are also known as
responsibility centres.
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Big Data
It involves the collection and analysis of a large amount of data to find trends,
understand customer needs and help organisations to focus resources more
effectively.
Benefits:
3. Driving innovation
The 3 V's
Volume
The quantity of data now being produced is being driven by social media and
transactional-based data sets recorded by large organisations.
For example, data captured from in-store loyalty cards.
Velocity
Velocity refers to the speed at which 'real time' data is being streamed into the
organisation.
To make data meaningful it needs to be processed in a reasonable time frame.
Variety
Modern data takes many different forms.
Structured data may take the form of numerical data whereas unstructured data
may be in the format of email or video
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Syllabus A2. Costing Concepts
Prime Cost
is made up of...
1. Direct Materials +
2. Direct labour +
3. Direct expenses
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Overheads
are
1. Indirect Material +
2. Indirect Labour +
3. Indirect Expenses
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Types of Cost Behaviour
Costs can be classified according to the way that they behave within different levels
of activity.
Variable cost
Fixed cost
Semi-variable cost
Variable Cost
A variable cost varies directly with output. (The more you make the more the cost - IN
TOTAL)
Direct costs are variable costs (Eg Raw materials, Labour and direct Overheads)
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Fixed Costs
A Fixed cost (within certain activity levels) remains constant (In total)
However that also means the more the output - the Fixed Cost PER UNIT will fall
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The depreciation of a machine may be fixed if production remains below 1,000 units per
month. If production exceeds 1,000 units, a second machine may be required, and the cost
of depreciation (on two machines) would go up a step.
Other stepped fixed costs include rent of warehouse (more space required if activity
increases) and supervisors’ wages (more supervisors required if number of employees
increase).
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Salesman's salary
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Graph 6: Total semi-variable costs
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Graph 8: Other cost behaviour patterns
This graph represents a cost which is variable with output, subject to a minimum (fixed)
charge.
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Production costs and Non-Production costs
For the preparation of financial statements, costs are often classified as:
1. Production
2. non-production costs
Production costs
are costs identified with goods produced for resale.
Production costs are all the costs involved in the manufacture of goods, i.e.:
• direct material
• direct labour
• direct expenses
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Non-production costs
are not directly associated with production of manufactured goods.
They are taken directly to the income statement as expenses in the period in which
they are incurred.
• finance costs
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Different elements of production cost
2. labour
3. overheads (expenses)
Materials
This includes all costs of materials purchased for production or non-production
activities
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Labour
This includes all staff costs relating to employees.
Overheads
Overheads include all other costs which are not materials or labour.
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Different elements of non production costs
Administrative costs
These include all the costs involved in running the general administration
department of an organisation.
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Selling costs
Selling costs include all costs incurred in promoting sales and retaining customers.
Distribution costs
Distribution costs include all costs incurred in making the packed product ready for
dispatch and delivering it to the customer.
• Delivery costs
Finance costs
Finance costs include all the costs that are incurred in order to finance an
organisation, for e.g. loan interest.
Non-production costs are taken directly to the income statement as expenses in the
period in which they are incurred.
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Costing in Different Organisations
Job Costing
This is used when each item output of product is unique / customised
Eg Construction projects
Process Costing
Multiple items are produced simultaneously
Instead of costing all the products individually, an average cost per unit is used.
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Costing Digital Products
• It is vital to have the most up-to-date pricing information available and therefore
links to supplier IT systems are crucial.
With no guarantee of success and things moving so quickly these often have to
be written off
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5. Evolving Revenue Streams
Buy access to the software for a period of time
The big issue is accounting for these digital costs correctly - when and where in the
accounts
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Syllabus A3. Costing Methods
Absorption Costing
2. labour hours
3. machine hours
Illustration 1
The Company produces product A only.
Required:
Calculate the OAR.
Solution:
Budgeted overheads are $100,000.
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Illustration 2
The Company produces product A and B.
Required:
Calculate the OAR.
Solution:
Budgeted overheads are $100,000.
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Absorption and Marginal Costings
The effect of absorption and marginal costing on inventory valuation and profit
1. Marginal costing
values inventory at the total variable production cost of a product.
E.g. direct labour, direct material, direct expenses and the variable part of
overheads
2. Absorption costing
values inventory at the full production cost (including fixed production
overheads) of a product.
3. Inventory values using absorption costing are therefore greater than those
calculated using marginal costing.
4. Since inventory values are different, profits reported in the Income statement (I/
S) will also be different.
Illustration
The cost of Product A:
Direct labour $5
Direct expenses $2
What will the inventory valuations be according to marginal and absorption costing?
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Solution
• Marginal costing:
Direct materials $10
Direct labour $5
Direct expenses $2
• Absorption costing
Direct materials $10
Direct labour $5
Direct expenses $2
Marginal costing
- when used for pricing decisions includes the 'marginal (variable) cost' of the
product.
- is more appropriate than absorption costing for use in one-off pricing decisions.
Absorption costing
- when used for pricing decisions includes the 'total-cost' of the product.
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The concept of contribution
Marginal Costing
Marginal costing is an alternative method of costing to absorption costing.
Fixed costs are treated as a period cost, and are charged in full to the income
statement of the accounting period in which they are incurred.
Contribution
How do we calculate contribution?
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Illustration
Calculate the Total Contribution, using Marginal Costing.
$per unit
Sales price 40
Direct materials 20
Direct labour 10
Fixed overheads 2
Solution
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Profit or loss
• In the long run, total profit for a company will be the same whether marginal
costing or absorption costing is used
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Marginal costing income statement $ $
Sales x
Opening inventory x
Production costs x
---
---
(x)
---
---
Contribution x
Production x
Administration x
---
(x)
---
Net profit x
==
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Illustration 1
The opening and closing inventory was 100 units and 500 units respectively.
The selling price and production costs for Product A were as follows:
Solution
Number of units sold = (OP + Produced - CL) = (100 + 1,000 - 500) = 600 units
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Profit under Absorption costing
Sales x
Opening inventory x
Production costs x
---
--- ---
-----
Gross profit x
----
Net profit x
===
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Illustration 2
A company produced 1,000 units of Product A.
The opening and closing inventory was 100 units and 500 units respectively.
The selling price and production costs for Product A were as follows:
$ per unit
Selling price 30
Direct costs 10
Gross profit 10
Number of units sold = (OP + Produced - CL) = (100 + 1,000 - 500) = 600 units
Gross Profit = 600u x Gross profit $10 = $6,000
Fixed costs are period costs Fixed costs are absorbed into unit costs
Cost of sales does not include a share Cost of sales does include a share of fixed
Of fixed overheads overheads
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Reconcile the profits or losses
Remember!
between the beginning and end of a period, absorption costing will report the
higher profit.
This is because some of the fixed production OH will be carried forward in closing
inventory (which reduces cost of sales and therefore reduces Expenses and
therefore increases the Profit).
absorption costing will report the lower profit because as well as the fixed OH
incurred, fixed production overhead which had been carried forward in opening
inventory is released and is also included in cost of sales.
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Therefore:
1. If inventory levels increase, absorption costing gives the higher profit
3. If inventory levels are constant, both methods give the same profit
Profits generated using absorption & marginal costing can also be reconciled as
follows:
No opening inventory.
OP = 0 units
CL = 300 units
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Step 3: Difference in Profit
Sales = OP + Production - CL
CL = 900 - 800
CL = 100 units
OP = 400 units
CL = 100 units
OP 400 > CL 100, therefore, there was a decrease in the inventory level
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Step 3: Difference in Profit
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Calculating and Interpreting a TPAR
What is throughput?
Throughput is the rate of converting raw materials and purchased components into
products sold to customers.
In money terms, it is the extra money that is made for an organisation from selling
its products.
1. In the short run, most costs in the factory (with the exception of materials costs)
are fixed.
These fixed costs are called Total Factory Costs (TFC) (operating expenses).
Work in progress should be valued at material cost only until the output is
eventually sold, so that no value will be added and no profit earned until the sale
takes place.
3. Profitability is determined by the rate at which sales are made and, in a JIT
environment, this depends on how quickly goods can be produced to satisfy
customer orders.
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Traditional Cost Accounting versus Throughput Accounting Ratio
4. Profit can be inceased by Profit is a function of material cost, total factory cost
reducing cost elements. and throughput.
However this contribution figure will be higher under throughput accounting since
only material costs are recognised as being variable costs.
Under marginal costing, direct labour costs and certain overhead costs will also be
deducted from sales revenues in order to calculate contribution.
Throughput accounting regards such costs as fixed and this is true insofar as they
cannot be avoided in the ‘immediate’ sense.
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Illustration 1
x y
sales revenue 25 30
material cost 5 8
variable overheads 2 2
fixed overheads 1 4
x x y y
$ $ $ $
sales revenue 25 30
material 5 8
labour 3 6
variable cost 2 10 2 16
contribution / unit 15 14
x y
$ $
sales revenue 25 30
less material 5 8
---- ----
return / unit 20 22
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Throughput accounting and the theory of constraints
The theory of constraints is applied within an organisation by following ‘the five
focusing steps’ – a tool which was developed to help organisations deal with
constraints.
This involves making sure that the bottleneck resource is actively being used as
much as possible and is producing as many units as possible.
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The Throughput Accounting Ratio (TPAR)
------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------
The cost per factory hour is across the whole factory and therefore only needs to
be calculated once (not for each product).
---------------------------
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TPAR more than 1 would suggest that throughput exceeds operating costs so the
product should make a profit.
TPAR less than 1 would suggest that throughput is insufficient to cover operating
costs, resulting in a loss.
Criticisms of TPAR
3. In the long run, ABC might be more appropriate for measuring and controlling
performance
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Activity based costing (ABC)
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Illustration 1
Purchasing = $ 100,000
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Required:
Calculate The Purchase cost per unit of Product A
Solution
Purchasing cost per unit for A = $25,000 / 10,000 units = $2.5 per unit
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Advantages of ABC
• More accurate cost information is obtained.
ABC recognises that overhead costs are not all related to volume. It also
identifies activities and costs that do not add value.
• ABC can be applied to all overhead costs, not just production overheads.
Disadvantages of ABC
ABC may not be universally beneficial.
• Cost vs benefit
The need to analyse costs on a radically different basis will require resources,
which will lead to additional costs.
Clearly the benefits which will be obtained must exceed these costs.
ABC is not fully understood by many managers and therefore is not fully
accepted as a means of cost control.
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• Difficulty in identifying cost drivers
In a practical context, there are frequently difficulties in identifying the
appropriate drivers.
The following example looks at the different activities within a company, their cost
and their cost driver.
The cost per driver is found by dividing the total cost of the activity by the quantity
of the cost drivers.
Overhead costs are then charged to products or services on the basis of activities
used for each product or service.
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2000 material
11.25 / material
Material handling 22500
movement movement
---------
$112500
======
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Syllabus A3. Standard Costing
Standard Costs
• It is used to value inventories and cost production for cost accounting purposes.
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Methods used to derive Standard costs
Cost Card
A standard cost is based on technical specifications for the materials, labour time
and other resources required and the prices and rates for the materials and labour.
A standard cost card shows full details of the standard cost of each product.
Direct expenses x
--
--
--
--
Standard profit x
--
==
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Four main types of cost standards
1. Basic standards
– these are long-term standards which remain unchanged over a period of years.
Basic standards may become increasingly easy to achieve as time passes and
hence, being undemanding, may have a negative impact on motivation.
2. Ideal standards
Since perfect operating conditions are unlikely to occur for any significant
period, ideal standards will be very demanding and are unlikely to be accepted
as targets by the staff involved as they are unlikely to be achieved.
3. Attainable standards
– these standards are based upon efficient but not perfect operating
conditions.
These standards include allowances for the fatigue, machine breakdown and
normal material losses.
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4. Current standards
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Materials total, price and usage variances
The direct material total variance can be subdivided into the direct material price
variance and the direct material usage variance.
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Direct material total variance = actual units should have cost $x
--------
=====
--------
=====
Direct material usage variance = actual units should have used x kgs
---------
---------
======
is the difference between what the output actually cost and what it should have
cost, in terms of material.
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The direct material price variance
calculates the difference between the standard cost and the actual cost for the
actual quantity of material used or purchased.
In other words, it is the difference between what the material did cost and what it
should have cost.
is the difference between the standard quantity of materials that should have been
used for the number of units actually produced, and the actual quantity of materials
used, valued at the standard cost per unit of material.
In other words, it is the difference between how much material should have been
used and how much material was used, valued at standard cost.
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Labour total, rate and efficiency variance
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Direct labour total variance = actual units should have cost $x
-------
=====
-------
=====
Direct labour efficiency variance = actual units should have taken x hrs
---------
---------
======
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The direct labour total variance is the difference between what the output should
have cost and what it did cost, in terms of labour.
The direct labour rate variance is the difference between the standard cost and the
actual cost for the actual number of hours paid for.
In other words, it is the difference between what the labour did cost and what it
should have cost.
The direct labour efficiency variance is the difference between the hours that should
have been worked for the number of units actually produced, and the actual number
of hours worked, valued at the standard rate per hour.
In other words, it is the difference between how many hours should have been
worked and how many hours were worked, valued at the standard rate per hour.
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Variable overhead total, expenditure and efficiency
variance
The variable production overhead total variance can be subdivided into the variable
production overhead expenditure variance and the variable production overhead
efficiency variance (based on actual hours).
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Variable overhead total variance = actual units should have cost $x
---------
---------
---------
--------
Variable overhead efficiency variance = actual units shd have taken x hrs
--------
---------
======
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The variable production overhead efficiency variance is exactly the same in hours as
the direct labour efficiency variance, but priced at the variable production overhead
rate per hour.
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Fixed overhead total, expenditure, volume, capacity
and efficiency variance
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Fixed overhead total variance = overhead incurred $x
overhead absorbed $x
--------
=====
-------
=====
----------
x units (f/
volume variance in units
a)
-----------
=======
The volume efficiency variance is calculated in the same way as the labour
efficiency variance.
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Fixed overhead vol efficiency variance = actual units shd have taken x hrs
-----------
----------
=======
The volume capacity variance is the difference between the budgeted hours of work
and the actual active hours of work (excluding any idle time).
-----------
----------
=======
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Fixed overhead total variance is the difference between fixed overhead incurred and
fixed overhead absorbed. In other words, it is the under– or over-absorbed fixed
overhead.
Fixed overhead expenditure variance is the difference between the budgeted fixed
overhead expenditure and actual fixed overhead expenditure.
Fixed overhead volume variance is the difference between actual and budgeted
(planned) volume multiplied by the standard absorption rate per unit.
Fixed overhead efficiency variance is the difference between the number of hours
that actual production should have taken, and the number of hours actually taken
(that is, worked) multiplied by the standard absorption rate per hour.
machine breakdown,
fixed overhead volume labour force working
strikes, labour
capacity overtime
shortage
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Sales price and volume variance
Sales Variances
The sales price variance shows the effect on profit of selling at a different price from
that expected.
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Sales price variance = actual units should have sold $x
----
===
--------
-------
=====
------------
------------
========
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The sale price variance is a measure of the effect on expected profit of a different
selling price to standard selling price. It is calculated as the difference between what
the sales revenue should have been for the actual quantity sold, and what it was.
The sales volume profit variance is the difference between the actual units sold and
the budgeted (planned) quantity, valued at the standard profit (under absorption
costing) or at the standard contribution (under marginal costing) per unit.
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Sales Mix and Quantity Variances
Sales Variances
Where a company sells several different products that have different profit margins,
the sales volume variance can be divided into a sales quantity (sometimes called a
The quantity variance measures the effect of changes in physical volume on total
profits.
The mix variance measures the impact arising from the actual sales mix being
margins.
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Planning and Operational Variances for sales
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Planning and Operational Variances for material &
labour
For materials and labour, planning and operational variances can be calculated by
comparing original and revised budgets (planning) and revised budgets with actual
results (operational).
A material price planning variance is really useful to provide feedback on just how
skilled managers are in estimating future prices.
Illustration 1
Budgeted Material price per kg is $5
The standard price for the raw material purchased should have been $6 per kg.
Solution
Standard price $6 - Budgeted price $5 = $1
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Backwards Variances
2. Fill in the pro forma as much as you can (with figures given in the question)
3. Work backwards, by filling in the blanks, until you get to your answer
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Investigating variances
2. Materiality.
The size of the variance may indicate the scale of the problem and the potential
benefits arising from its correction.
For example, a favourable raw material price variance resulting from the purchase of
a lower grade of material, may cause an adverse labour efficiency variance because
the lower grade material is harder to work with.
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4. The inherent variability of the cost or revenue. Some costs, by nature, are quite
volatile (oil prices, for example) and variances would therefore not be surprising.
Other costs, such as labour rates, are far more stable and even a small variance
may indicate a problem.
If the cost of correcting the problem is likely to be higher than the benefit, then there
is little point in investigating further.
6. Trends in variances.
7. Controllability/probability of correction.
If a cost or revenue is outside the manager’s control (such as the world market price
of a raw material) then there is little point in investigating its cause.
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Syllabus B. BUDGETING
Syllabus B1. Different Rationales For Budgeting
A budget
is a plan of what the organisation is aiming to achieve and what it has set as a
target.
The budget is 'a quantitative statement for a defined period of time, which may
include planned revenues, expenses, assets, liabilities and cash flows.
• To coordinate the different activities so that managers are working towards the
same common goal
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Planning and control cycle
This involves establishing the broad overall aims and goals of the organisation –
its mission may be both economic and social.
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Objectives should be SMART:
• Specific
• Measurable
• Achievable
• Relevant
• Time limited
To formulate its strategies, the firm will consider the products it makes and the
markets it serves. E.g. of strategies are
This stage shows the move from long-term planning to short-term plans – the
annual budget.
The budget provides the link between the strategic plans and their
implementation in management decisions.
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• Stage 7: Monitor actual outcomes
Detailed financial and other records of actual performance are compared with
budget targets (variance analysis)
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Stages in the budgeting process
The long-term plan forms the framework within which the budget is prepared.
Generally there will be one factor which restricts performance for a given period.
Usually this will be sales, but it could be production capacity, or some special
labour skills.
On the assumption that sales is the principal budget factor, the next stage is to
prepare the sales budget.
At this stage the various budgets are integrated into the complete budget
system.
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Any anomalies between the budgets must be resolved and the complete budget
package subject to review.
At this stage the budget income statement, balance sheet and cash flow must
be prepared to ensure that the package produces an acceptable result.
All of the budgets are summarised into a master budget, which is presented to
top management for final acceptance.
The budget process involves regular comparison of budget with actual, and
identifying causes for variances.
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Motivation in performance management
information.
The information will only be valuable, however, if it is interpreted correctly and used
The correct use of control information therefore depends not only on the content of
1. The managers who set the budget or standards are often not the managers who
3. When setting the budget, there may be budgetary slack (or bias).
This results in a budget that is poor for control purposes and meaningless
variances.
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The importance of motivation in performance management
Hence, if employees and managers are not motivated, they will lack the drive or
urge to improve their performance and to help the organization to achieve its goals
and move forward.
The management accountant should therefore try to ensure that employees have
positive attitudes towards setting budgets, implementing budgets and feedback of
results.
Factors such as financial and non financial rewards, prestige and esteem, job
security and job satisfaction may all play a part to motivate management and
employees.
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Impact of External Factors on Budgeting
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Syllabus B2. Prepare Budgets
Rolling Budget
Here, a portion of the budget period is replaced on a regular basis so that the
overall budget period remains unchanged.
For example, with a budget period of one year, at the end of each quarter a new
quarter could be added to the end of the budget period and the elapsed quarter
could be deleted, so that the budget will always be looking one year ahead.
A cash budget is often a rolling budget because of the need to keep tight control of
this area of financial management.
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Advantages of rolling budgets
2. They force managers to reassess the budget regularly, and to produce budgets
3. Planning and control will be based on a recent plan which is likely to be far more
For example, if rolling budgets are prepared quarterly there will always be a
This is not the case when fixed annual budgets are used.
2. Frequent budgeting might have an off-putting effect on managers who doubt the
3. Revisions to the budget might involve revisions to standard costs too, which in
This could replace a large administrative effort from the accounts department
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Incremental Budget
This makes it possible for a person without any accounting training to build a
budget.
For example, in a stable business, the amount of stationery spent in one year is
unlikely to be significantly different in the next year, so taking the actual spend in
year one and adding a little for inflation should be a reasonable target for the
spend in the next year.
If the actual figures for this year include overspends caused by some form of
error then the budget for the next year would potentially include this overspend
again.
5. Can ignore the true (activity based) drivers of a cost leading to poor budgeting
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Activity-Based Budget
Activity-based budgeting (ABB) would need a detailed analysis of costs and cost
drivers so as to determine which cost drivers and cost pools were to be used in the
activity-based costing system.
The budgeted activity levels are determined in the same way as for conventional
budgeting in that a sales budget and a production budget are drawn up.
ABB then determines the quantity of activity cost drivers (e.g. number of purchase
orders, number of set-ups) needed to support the planned sales and production.
Standard cost data would be compiled that include details of the activity cost
drivers required to produce a product or number of products.
The resources needed to support the budgeted quantity of activity cost drivers
would then be determined (e.g. number of labour hours to process purchase orders,
number of maintenance hours needed to complete set-ups).
This resource need would then be matched against the available capacity (i.e.
number of purchase clerks to process purchase orders) to see whether any capacity
adjustment were needed.
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Advantages of ABB
1. Organisational resources are allocated more efficiently due to the detailed cost
and activity information obtained by implementing an ABB system.
2. It avoids slack that is often linked to incremental budgeting due to its detailed
assessment of the activities and resources needed to support planned sales and
production.
3. In ABB the costs of support activities are not seen as fixed costs to be increased
by annual increments, but as depending to a large extent on the planned level of
activity.
Disadvantages of ABB
2. ABB might not be appropriate for the organisation and its activities and cost
structures.
4. It could be argued that in the short term many overhead costs are not
controllable and do not vary directly with changes in the volume of activity for
the cost driver.
The only cost variances to report would be fixed overhead expenditure variances
for each activity.
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Feed-Forward Control
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Zero-Based Budgeting
Each activity is treated as though it was being undertaken for the first time and is
required to justify its inclusion in the budget in terms of the benefit expected to be
derived from its adoption.
1. Activities are identified by managers. These activities are then described in what
is called a ‘decision package’.
This decision package is prepared at the base level, representing the minimum
level of service or support needed to achieve the organisation’s objectives.
Further incremental packages may then be prepared to reflect a higher level of
service or support
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2. Management will then rank all the packages in the order of decreasing benefits
to the organisation.
This will help management decide what to spend and where to spend it.
3. The resources are then allocated based on order of priority up to the spending
level
3. It focuses attention on the need to obtain value for money from the consumption
of organisational resources.
1. Departmental managers will not have the skills necessary to construct decision
packages. They will need training for this and training takes time and money.
2. In a large organisation, the number of activities will be so large that the amount
of paperwork generated from ZBB will be unmanageable.
5. Since decisions are made at budget time, managers may feel unable to react to
changes that occur during the year. This could have a detrimental effect on the
business if it fails to react to emerging opportunities and threats.
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It could be argued that ZBB is more suitable for public sector than for private sector
organisations. This is because, firstly, it is far easier to put activities into decision
packages in organisations which undertake set definable activities. Local
government, for example, has set activities including the provision of housing,
schools and local transport.
Secondly, it is far more suited to costs that are discretionary in nature or for support
activities. Such costs can be found mostly in not for profit organisations or the
public sector, or in the service department of commercial operations.
Since ZBB requires all costs to be justified, it would seem inappropriate to use it for
the entire budgeting process in a commercial organisation. Why take so much time
and resources justifying costs that must be incurred in order to meet basic
production needs?
It makes no sense to use such a long-winded process for costs where no discretion
can be exercised anyway. Incremental budgeting is, by its nature, quick and easy to
do and easily understood. These factors should not be ignored.
Master Budget
The master budget is a summary of all of the budgets which generally comprises a
budgeted income statement, a budgeted statement of financial position and a
budgeted cash flow statement.
Assuming that the level of demand is the principal budget factor, the various
functional, departmental and master budgets will be drawn up in the following order.
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Functional Budget
Functional budgets are prepared and consolidated to produce the master budget.
These would include raw materials budget, raw material usage and purchases
budgets, sales budget and production budget.
Fixed Budget
A fixed budget is one prepared in advance of the relevant budget period which is
not changed or amended as the budget period progresses.
Flexible Budget
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Beyond Budgeting
5. add little value, especially given the time taken to prepare them
• front line teams with the freedom to take decisions in line with the company’s
governance principles and strategic goals
• open and ethical information systems which generates more reliable information,
greater transparency and more ethical reporting
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Principal budget factor
Limiting factor
In every organisation, there is some factor that restricts performance for a given
period. This factor is known as the principal budget factor or limiting factor.
In the majority of organisations, this factor is sales demand but it can also be
shortage of materials or inadequate plant capacity.
Decisions must be taken at an early stage to minimise the impact of any principal
budget factor.
Once this factor has been identified, this budget must be set first and then the other
individual functional budgets are set after, this will ensure that coordination of
functions takes place.
Therefore, if the principal budgeting factor is sales demand, then this budget would
be set first, followed by the production budget and then the purchases budget.
Or, if the principal budget factor is plant capacity, the functional budget for plant
capacity should be set first, followed by other functional budgets, it would not make
sense to set a sales budget first with a sales volume in excess of exiting plant
capacity, unless decisions were made on improving capacity, subcontracting work
or cutting back on the sales budget.
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Sales & Functional budgets
Budgets
A Functional budget
• Sales budget
• Production budget
• Labour budget
• Overheads budget
Sales Budget
Production Budget
Budgeted production =
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Illustration
Finished goods inventory equal to 20% of the next month’s budgeted sales.
Sales for the current month are 2,000 units and are budgeted to be 2,400 units next
month.
Solution
Sales 2,000
Material Budget
Material usage =
Material usage budget + closing inventory (of material kg/l) – opening inventory
(of material kg/l)
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Illustration
Solution
= 3,000 x 5
= 15,000 kg
Labour Budget
Overhead Budget
The overhead budget will be made up of variable costs and fixed costs
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Master budgets
When all the functional budgets have been prepared, they are summarised and
consolidated into a master budget which consists of
3. Cash budget
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Cash budgets
Cash Budgets
They show the expected inflows and outflows of cash through the company.
However, holding cash carries with it a cost – the opportunity cost of the profits
which could be made if the cash was either used in the company or invested
elsewhere.
available to the company and maximising the interest on any spare funds not
Management can therefore use cash budgets to plan ahead to meet those
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Illustration 1
The accounts receivables at the beginning of next year are expected to be $200.
What are the budgeted total cash receipts from customers next year?
Solution
Opening $200
Sales $1,000
Closing ($0)
Note:
The budgeted total cash receipts from customers will be $1,200 (200 + 1,000).
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Illustration 2
The accounts receivables at the beginning of next year are expected to be $200.
60% of the budgeted sales will be on credit and the remainder will be cash sales.
What are the budgeted total cash receipts from customers next year?
Solution
Opening $200
Sales $1,000
Working 1:
The budgeted total cash receipts from customers will be $1,150 (200 + 1,000 - 50).
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Syllabus B2. Preparing Forecasts
Time Series
A time series
This pattern can be extrapolated into the future and hence forecasts are possible.
Time periods may be any measure of time including days, weeks, months and
quarters.
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A time series has 4 components:
1. Trend
a trend is the underlying long-term movement over time in values of data recorded
e.g. sales of ice creams will tend to be highest in the summer months
4. Residual variantions
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The actual time series is:
Y = T + S + C + R
Where:
In the exam, it is unlikely that you will be expected to carry out any calculation of
‘C’.
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Methods of finding the trend
1. Moving averages
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Moving Averages
This average relates to the mid-point of the period ie between summer and autumn.
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Illustration: Moving averages
Sales in $'000
To align these moving averages to a specific quarter, we need to average the moving
averages to create a 'Centred moving average':
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Additive And Multiplicative Models
Seasonal variations must be taken out, to leave a figure which is indicating the
Trend.
1. Additive model
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Additive model
This is based upon the idea that each actual result is made up of two influences.
Step 1
Step 2
Deduct the Trend from the time series data to obtain the Seasonal variation
the logic here is that if Time series = Trend + Seasonal variation then re-arranging
this gives:
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Illustration
Sales in $'000
Trend data
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The multiplicative model
The additive model assumes that seasonal variation does not increase over time.
This is unlikely — for example, companies that are growing rapidly will have
increasing sales figures and therefore higher seasonal variations too.
Step 1
Identify the trend
Step 2
Divide the time series by the trend data to obtain the seasonal variation
the logic here is that if time series = trend x seasonal variation then re-arranging this
gives:
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Illustration - Multiplicative model
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Forecasting
y = 5.2 + 0.24x
Solution
If x = time period (2010 = 1), then 2019 will be 9.
1st Q = -20
2nd Q = +7
3rd Q = +16
4th Q = -1
Solution
If T1 = First quarter of 2010, then 3rd Quarter of 2012 will be 11.
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Time Series Analysis Advantages
• it is useful when forecasting data which has a regular seasonal pattern as may be
the case with sales of certain products
• it assumes that past trends will continue indefinitely and that extrapolating data
based on historic information will give valid conclusions.
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Linear Regression
The Dependent variable’ value depends on the value of the other variable.
You would then need to determine the strength of the relationship between these
two variables in order to forecast sales.
For example, if the marketing budget increases by 1%, how much will your sales
increase?
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Regression Equation
Y = a + bx
where:
A simpler way to picture this might be thinking of variable costs and fixed costs.
So
Y = Total costs
a = Fixed Costs
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In this graph, the dots represent the actual date.
Linear regression attempts to estimate a line that best fits the data, and the
equation of that line results in the regression equation
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‘What if’ analysis
For example:
Illustration
Revenues 100%
Profit 30%
Solution
Revenues 70%
Profit 70 - 35 - 20 = 15%
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High/low analysis
High-low method
This method analyses semi-variable costs into their fixed and variable elements.
Always select the period with the highest activity level and the period with the
lowest activity level.
Total cost at high activity level - Total cost at low activity level
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
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Illustration 1
Solution
TC = FC + VC
FC = $17,000
TC = 23,750
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High-low method with Step up
Total cost at high activity level - Total cost at low activity level
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Total units at high activity level - Total units at low activity level
Total cost at high activity level – (Total units at high activity level × Variable
cost per unit)
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Illustration 2
Note: If there is a step up of fixed cost between the activity levels given, first remove
the step up and then find the variable and fixed costs with the high low method.
There is a step up of $5,000 in fixed costs when activity crosses 35,000 units.
Solution:
Step 3: Fixed cost (Use the activity with the step up because our desired
activity level also includes the step up)
TC = FC + VC
FC = $101,520
TC = $304,770
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Advantages of the High-Low Method
1. Easy to use
2. Easy to understand
3. Quick method
1. It relies on historical cost data – predictions of future costs may not be reliable
2. It assumes that the activity level is the only factor affecting costs
3. It uses only two values to predict costs – all data falling between the highest and
lowest values are ignored
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Syllabus B3. Budgetary Control
Fixed Budgets
prepared normally prior to the start of an accounting period is called the fixed
budget
Comparison of a fixed budget with the actual results for a different level of activity is
of little use for budgetary control purposes.
It is useful for controlling any fixed cost, and particularly non-production fixed costs
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Flexible budgets in control
Budgetary Control
Budgetary control involves controlling costs by comparing the budget with the
actual results and investigating any significant differences between the two.
Any differences (variances) are made the responsibility of key individuals who can
either exercise control action or revise the original budgets.
If this control process is to be valid and effective, it is important that the variances
are calculated in a meaningful way.
One of the major concerns is to ensure that the budgeted and actual figures reflect
the same activity level.
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Flexible Budgets
A flexible budget is a budget that adjusts or flexes for changes in the volume of
activity.
The flexible budget is more sophisticated and useful than a fixed budget, which
remains at one amount regardless of the volume of activity.
For example, a firm may have prepared a fixed budget at a sales level of $100,000.
e.g. anticipated activity 100% and also 90%, 95%, 105% and 110% activity.
Flexible budgets can be useful but time and effort is needed to prepare them.
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Flexed Budgets
A flexed budget
is a budget prepared to show the revenues, costs and profits that should have been
expected from the actual level of production and sales.
If the flexed budget is compared with the actual results for a period, variances will
be much more meaningful.
The high-low method may have to be used in order to determine the fixed and
variable elements of semi-variable costs.
However, please note that fixed costs remain unchanged regardless of the level of
activity and should not be flexed.
If the budget wasn't flexed you would compare 25Kg to the budgeted 20Kg and get
an ADVERSE variance of 5Kg.
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But this is not taking into account the fact that 4 more products were made than
budgeted
Illustration
The actual amount produced was 120 items at a labour cost of $250
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The concepts of feedback
Feedback
ensures that plans, budgets, organisational structures and the control systems
themselves are revised to meet changes in conditions.
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The elements in the control cycle
As a consequence, materials and labour are used, and other expenses are
incurred.
5. The feedback is used by management to compare actual results with the plan or
targets (what should be or should have been achieved).
6. By comparing actual and planned results, management can then do one of three
things, depending on how they see the situation.
Feedforward Control
• Basically, we will carry out a forecast to correct unfavourable results before they
actually happen.
• e.g. We may carry out a forecast for the end of the year based on the first 3
months of operation, and discover material costs are outside the budgeted
amount.
Therefore, we can take action to reduce costs and ensure the budgeted targets
are achieved.
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Responsibility accounting
Each manager must have a well-defined area of responsibility and the authority to
make decisions within that area.
2. A revenue centre
3. Profit centre
4. Investment centre
– the manager is empowered to take decisions about capital investment for his
department.
A common problem is that the responsibility for a particular cost or item is shared
between two (or more) managers.
For e.g. the responsibility for material costs will be shared between production and
purchasing managers.
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Controllable and uncontrollable costs
Measuring Performance
The main problem with measuring performance is in deciding which costs are
controllable and which costs are traceable.
Controllable costs and revenues are those costs and revenues which result from
decisions within the authority of a particular manager within the organisation.
Most variable costs are controllable in the short term because managers can
influence the efficiency with which resources are used.
Other costs are controllable in the long term rather than the short term.
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Ethical Implications of Budgeting
Competitive Market
Government Agency
• Decisions based on cost rather than effectiveness. eg. Cheaper, lower quality,
drugs may be preferred by the public sector
Subsidiary
• Internal politics may mean budgets for some subsidiaries are more challenging
than others.
• Tax rates may make it more desirable to make profits in certain subsidiaries
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Syllabus C. SHORT-TERM DECISION MAKING
Limiting Factor
For many businesses, this may frequently be the level of sales that can be achieved
but at other times a business may be limited by a shortage of a resource which
prevents the business from achieving its sales potential.
2. supply of materials;
3. factory space;
4. finance;
6. market demand.
A business may face a single constraint situation however, others may face a multi
constraint scenario.
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Optimal Production Plan - ranking
When there is only one scarce resource, key factor analysis can be used to solve
the problem.
Options must be ranked using contribution earned per unit of the scarce resource.
2. Step 2: - Rank the options using the contribution earned per unit of the scarce
resource
Product A Product B
VC / Unit 80 75
FC / Unit 10 12
5,500
Available 4,000
Shortfall 1,500
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Product A Product B
VC / Unit 80 75
Cont / Unit 20 45
Cont / Lab hr 40 60
Ranking 2 1
Prod Plan
Available = 4,000
Available 1,000
Available 0
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Assumptions
2. Each product always uses the same quantity of the scarce resource per unit.
3. The contribution per unit is constant. However, the selling price may have to be
lowered to sell more; discounts may be available as the quantity of materials
needed increases.
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Linear programming
When there are two or more resources in short supply, linear programming is
required to find the solution.
2. minimise costs
4. Draw a graph identifying the feasible region. The constraints are represented as
straight lines on the graph.
The feasible region shows those combinations of variables which are possible
given the resource constraints.
5. Solve for the optimal production plan. An iso-contribution line (an objective
function for a particular value) must be drawn. All points on this line represent an
equal contribution.
This line must move to and from the origin in parallel. The objective is to get the
highest contribution or the minimum cost within the binding constraints.
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Linear programming assumptions
2. each product always uses the same quantity of the scarce resource per unit.
3. the contribution (or cost) per unit is constant for each product, regardless of the
level of activity. Therefore, the objective function is a straight line.
6. all costs either vary with a single volume-related cost driver or they are fixed for
the period under consideration.
Illustration
Variables
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Objective function
Constraints
Non-negativity = A,B ≥ 0
Material X
When A is 0, B = 100
When B is 0, A = 150
Material Y
When A = 0, B = 54
When B = 0, A = 180
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Shadow price
Any scarce resource that is fully utilised in the optimal solution will have a shadow
price.
It would be worth paying more than the ‘normal’ price to obtain more of the scarce
resource because of the contribution foregone by not being able to satisfy the sales
demand.
Therefore, if more critical (scarce) resource becomes available, then the feasible
region would tend to expand and this means that the optimal point would tend to
move outward away from the origin, thus earning more contribution.
Hence the shadow price of a binding constraint is the amount by which the total
contribution would increase if one more unit of the scarce resource became
available.
Management can use the shadow price as a measure of how much they would be
willing to pay to gain more of a scarce resource over and above the normal price
subject to any non-financial issues that may be present.
If the availability of a non-critical scarce resource increased then the feasible region
would not tend to expand and therefore no more contribution could be earned. In
this case, extra non-critical scarce resource has no value and a nil shadow price.
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Calculating shadow prices
1. add one unit to the constraint concerned while leaving the other critical
constraint unchanged
3. calculate the revised optimal contribution and compare to the old contribution.
The increase in contribution is the shadow price for the constraint under
consideration.
Illustration
Following from the previous illustration, find the shadow price of Material X.
A = 125.55
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100 A + 150B = 15005
B = 16.33
20 (125.55) + 45 (16.33)
= 2511+ 734.85
= 3245.85
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Slack
If, at the optimal solution, the resource used equals the resource available, the
constraint is binding and there is no slack.
3. If they are ‘greater than’, the region which you should consider is above the
constraint.
4. The optimal point will be the first point you reach on the feasible region when
you shift out the iso-cost function.
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Syllabus C1. Cost plus pricing
= Investment x %
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Illustration
Cow Co manufactures 10,000 units each year and the directors wish to achieve a
Solution:
Step 1:
Step 2:
Step 3:
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Margins & Mark up
- means that a desired profit margin is added to total costs to arrive at the selling
price.
Mark-up profit
e.g. 20% mark-up, for example 20% of the total cost of $100 is $20 is the mark up
profit
-------------------------
profit 20
Margin profit
e.g. 20% margin, for example 20% of the selling price of $100 is $20 margin profit
-------------------------
profit 20
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Syllabus C2. Relevant Costing
In the FUTURE
CASH only
INCREMENTAL only
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Decision making should be based on relevant costs and revenues.
A decision is about the future and it cannot alter what has been done already.
Costs that have been incurred in the past are totally irrelevant to any decision
that is being made 'now'.
Such costs are called past costs or sunk costs and are irrelevant.
This means that costs or charges which do not reflect additional cash spending
(such as depreciation and notional costs) should be ignored for the purpose of
decision making.
3. Relevant costs are INCREMENTAL costs and it is the increase in costs and
revenues that occurs as a direct result of a decision taken that is relevant.
These are costs which would not be incurred if the activity to which they relate
did not exist.
Committed costs are future costs that cannot be avoided because of decisions that
have already been made.
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Opportunity Costs
Opportunity costs only arise when resources are scarce and have alternative uses.
When an alternative course of action is given up, the financial benefits lost are
known as opportunity costs.
So they are the lost contribution from the best use of the alternative forgone.
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Relevant cost of Materials
But what if we have already have them in stock and won't use them regularly?
Well then we can either sell them or use them on another project
So, here the relevant cost of using them is the higher of: -
So also if the materials have no resale value and no other possible use, then the
relevant cost is nil
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Original Current Current
Qty needed Qty currently
Material cost of qty purchase resale
for contract in inventory
in inv price price
Material B – 100 kgs in stock could have been sold if not used in the contract
Please note that the original cost is a sunk cost, therefore irrelevant.
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Relevant cost of Labour
Different Scenarios...
• Spare capacity
So this project can't be finished :( - so we lose its contribution but we still have
to pay the workers on our project
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Syllabus C3. Short-term Decision Making
An Example:
One unit of joint product A is sufficient to make one unit of C which has a sales
value of $150 per unit.
Solution
Benefit from further processing in order to sell C = 700 - 500 = $200 per batch
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Make or Buy Decisions
• Production resources may be idle (if the component is purchased from outside)
• Fixed costs are irrelevant (because we won't need any extra fixed costs)
• So just consider the variable costs of MAKING compared to the purchase cost
of BUYING
Decision
1. Buy
2. Make
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No spare capacity available?
So we need to buy more space or stop making something to create space
So compare the contribution lost + extra costs of MAKING to the purchase price of
BUYING
Decision
1. Buy
2. Make
Illustration
Craft Ltd makes four components A, B, C, and D and the associated annual costs
are as follows:
A B C D
Production volume (units) 1,500 3,000 5,000 7,000
Direct Materials 4 4 5 5
Direct Labour 8 8 6 6
Variable production overheads 2 1 4 5
Total 14 13 15 16
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Determine whether any of the components should be bought in from the external
supplier.
SOLUTION
A B C D
Costs if Made 14 13 15 16
Costs if Bought (12) (16) (20) (24)
Savings per unit Bought 2 (3) (5) (8)
Number of units 1,500 3,000 5,000 7,000
Total Savings if Bought 3,000 (9,000) (25,000) (56,000)
Plus Direct Fixed Costs Saved 3,000 6,000 10,000 7,000
Total Saving 6,000 (3,000) (15,000) (49,000)
Therefore only buy in component A as this is the only one which makes a saving if
bought in
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Accept or Decline contracts
A business should identify the incremental cash flows associated with a new one-off
contract/project.
Illustration
The managing director of Q Limited is considering undertaking a one-off contract.
She has asked her inexperienced accountant to advise on what costs are likely to
be incurred so that she can price at a profit. The following schedule has been
prepared:
Total $68,800
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Notes
Direct wages comprise the wages of two employees, particularly skilled in the
labour process for this job.
They could be transferred from another department to undertake the work on the
special order.
They are fully occupied in their usual department and sub-contracting staff would
have to be brought in to undertake the work left behind.
Other sub-contractors who are skilled in the special order techniques are also
available to work on the special order.
Machine depreciation represents the normal period cost, based on the duration of
the contract. It is anticipated that $500 will be incurred in additional machine
maintenance costs.
Materials represent the purchase costs of 7,500kg bought some time ago.
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The materials are no longer used and are unlikely to be wanted in the future except
for the special order.
Required:
Produce a revised costing schedule for the special project based on relevant
costing principles. Fully explain and justify each of the costs included in the costing
schedule.
• Direct Wages
1. Option 1:
2. Option 2:
• General Overheads
We are only interested in 'extra' fixed costs which here are $1,000
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• Machine Depreciation
There are extra maintenance costs though with the new contract of $500
• Materials
The replacement cost is not a future cost either (as we have the stock already
and is not to be used elsewhere)
The only relevant future cost is the fact we cannot sell it in the future (as we
would as we are not using it)
• Overdraft Interest
Item Cost
Direct wages 31,300
Overheads 1,000
Maintenance 500
Materials 31,500
Interest 900
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Close or Continue
This basically means look at its contribution - so make sure all the costs are direct -
otherwise they wont be saved
Illustration
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Department 1 2 3 Total
Sales (units) 10,000 5,000 15,000 30,000
Sales ($) 150,000 92,000 158,000 400,000
Direct material 75,000 75,000 50,000 200,000
Direct labour 25,000 25,000 10,000 60,000
Production overhead 5,000 2,500 7,500 15,000
Half of the so-called direct labour is fixed and cannot be readily allocated.
recommendation.
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1 2 3 Total
• Knock-on impact, e.g. loss leaders cancelled - products that got customers into
the store
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Syllabus C3. Break-even analysis
Break even?
One of the most important decisions that needs to be made before any business
even starts is ‘how much do we need to sell in order to break-even?’
By ‘break-even’ we mean simply covering all our costs without making a profit.
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Break-Even Point and Margin of Safety
Break-Even (Units)
Once the fixed costs are paid for by these sales then you break even:
So the break even point in units is Fixed Costs / Contribution (per unit)
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Break-Even (Revenue)
Very similar to Break-even (units) except instead of contribution in units it's contribution to
sales ratio
So the break even point in units is Fixed Costs / Contribution to sales ratio
Margin of Safety
The Margin of Safety is simply how many we predict to sell ABOVE the breakeven
level
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Video link: https://www.acowtancy.com/textbook/cima-p1/break-even-analysis/break-even-point-and-
margin-of-safety/notes
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Multi-Product Situations
Because there's one more than one product then we need the Weighted Average
Contribution per unit or to sales ratio
Fixed Costs
-------------
Fixed Costs
-------------
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Target Profit - Multi Product Illustration
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Limitations and Technology
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Break-Even Charts and Profit Volume
Lines are drawn on the chart to represent costs and sales revenue.
The breakeven point is where the Total revenues line meets the Total costs line
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The contribution breakeven chart
One of the problems with the basic breakeven chart is that it is not possible to read
contribution.
A contribution breakeven chart is based on the same principles, but it shows the
variable cost line instead of the fixed cost line.
The same lines for total cost and sales revenue are shown so the breakeven point,
and profit can be read off in the same way as with a basic B/E chart.
However, it is also possible also to read the contribution for any level of activity.
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Profit-volume chart
The profit-volume graph focuses purely on showing a profit/ loss line and doesn’t
separately show the cost and revenue lines.
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Multi-product
one straight line, where a constant mix between the products is assumed; and
one bow-shaped line, where it is assumed that the company sells its most profitable
product first and then its next most profitable product, and so on.
In order to draw the graph, it is therefore necessary to work out the C/S ratio of
each product being sold before ranking the products in order of profitability.
It can be observed from the graph that, when the company sells its most profitable
product first (x) it breaks even earlier than when it sells products in a constant mix.
The break-even point is the point where each line cuts the x axis.
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Syllabus D. DEALING WITH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
Risk
Uncertainty
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Expected Values (EV)
The ‘expected value’ rule calculates the average return that will be made if a
decision is repeated again and again.
It does this by weighting each of the possible outcomes with their relative
probability of occurring.
A probability of 0.4 means that the event is expected to occur four times out of ten.
The total of the probabilities for events that can possibly occur must sum up to 1.0.
EV = ∑px
Where:
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A risk neutral investor will generally make his decisions based on maximising EV.
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The Value of Perfect and Imperfect Information
The approach to calculate the value of perfect and imperfect information is the
same:
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Standard Deviations
Co-Efficient of Variation
Illustration 1
A 950 600
B 1,400 580
C 250 300
D 760 740
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Required
If Alpha Co wishes to select the project with the lowest risk factor (coefficient of variation) it
will select project:
SOLUTION
Illustration 2
Project A Project B
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Required
If the management of Beta Co are risk averse, which project would they be most likely to
invest in?
SOLUTION
However, if the management are risk averse, they would be more likely to choose project A
because, although it has a smaller EV, the possible profits are subject to less variation.
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Normal Distribution
Z = (x - µ) / Ϭ
where:
σ is the standard deviation = how far away from the average you are
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Normal Distribution Table
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Illustration 1
Solution:
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Illustration 2
If the project loses more than $50,000 the company will be in financial difficulties.
Step 3. Calculate the probability of the project losing MORE than $50,000 is:
So less than $50,000 = 50% + 49.38% = 99.38%
So greater than $50,000 = 100% - 99.38% = 0.62%
So we have a 99.38% confidence that losses won't fall lower than 50k
Another way of saying this is the value at risk is 50,000 when we have a 99.38%
confidence level
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Syllabus D1b. Decision Models
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Attitudes to risk by individuals
A risk averse investor would want to consider standard deviations as it tells them more
about the risk they are taking on in the decision they are making and can help them avoid
high risk choices
Those that are risk-seeking favour higher risks and higher returns
Normal distributions give information about probabilities but not about risk so would be
useful to risk neutral investors
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Payoff tables
A profit table (payoff table) is useful for scenario where there is a range of possible
outcomes and a variety of possible responses.
Illustration
He buys his products for $10 and sell them for $15.
The product is not possible to store, any unsold item is scrapped at the end of day
at scrap value of $2 per product.
Supplies of product to the shop is made before the number of sales is known,
however Mr. Luck has records about last 150 days sales.
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1. STEP 1: Calculate probabilities of outcomes:
150 products will be sold with probability of 50 days/150 days, which is 0.33
200 products will be sold with probability of 70 days/150 days, which is 0.47
100 products will be sold with probability of 30/150 days, which is 0.2
however if supply is 150 and sales are only 100, the profit will be
100*(15-10)+50*(2-10)=$100
a. Maximax (risk seeker) - choose the best - order a supply of 200 products
b. Maximin (risk averse) - choose the outcome with the highest expected return
under the worst possible conditions - order a supply of 100 products
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Daily demand (in qty) Probability Daily supply
TOTAL EXPECTED
620 524 500
VALUES
d. Minimax regret - outcome with the lowest possible regret (opportunity costs) -
regret is calculated as a difference between the best outcome profit and other
choices, see the table:
750-350=40 750-500=25
150 0.33 750-750=0
0 0
1000-1000= 1000-500=5
200 0.47 1000-750=250
0 00
500-
100 0.2 500-100=400 500-500=0
(-300)=800
So based on minimax regret regret decision rule we should choose order of 150
products.
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Decision Trees
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Figure 1:
There are two branches coming off the initial decision point - the top branch has a
certain outcome
The lower branch has two possible outcomes, and a further 2 possible outcomes
for each of these
The next step would be to label the tree and put the cash inflows/outflows and
probabilities in
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Sensitivity
Sensitivity Analysis
The lower % variables that are therefore the most important for the decision under
review.
1. Easy to understand
3. Does not offer a clear decision rule; management judgement is still required
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