Elsmar Software Build Defect Rates
Elsmar Software Build Defect Rates
a 0.05
a/2 0.02500
1 - a/2 0.97500
0.00350000
0.00300000
Propotiton Defective
0.00250000
0.00200000
0.00150000
0.00100000
0.00050000
0.00000000
d=0 d=1 d=5 d=10
Normal Approximation Limits EXACT BINOMIAL LIMITS
UCL LCL UCL LCL
0.0007375 -0.0007375 0.00073750 0.00000000
0.0005920 -0.0001920 0.00111382 0.00004845
0.0018761 0.0001239 0.00233211 0.00044050
0.0032383 0.0007617 0.00367499 0.00109873
Prob of a Defect p=.0002
Exact Probability Calculator for number of defective units in a sample given a defect rate
p: "Known" fraction of defective units…"reject rate"
P(x): The probability of exactly x defective units in a sample of size, n
n= 5,000
p= 0.0002 np = 1
x P(x) Poisson P(x) Binomial
Distribution of Probable Number of Defective Units
0 0.36787944 #VALUE! Poisson Probability
Probability of Occurence
30%
3 0.06131324 #VALUE! 25%
20%
4 0.01532831 #VALUE! 15%
5 0.00306566 #VALUE! 10%
5%
6 0.00051094 #VALUE! 0%
7 7.2992E-05 #VALUE! 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
9 1.0138E-06 #VALUE!
10 1.0138E-07 #VALUE! x
11 9.2162E-09 #VALUE! np −np
12 7.6801E-10 #VALUE! P( x )= e
13 5.9078E-11 #VALUE! x!
14 4.2199E-12 #VALUE!
15 2.8132E-13 #VALUE!
Page 3
Prob of a Defect p=.0002
1200%
1000%
Probability of Occurence
800%
600%
400%
200%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
# Defective Units in the Sample
n!
P ( x )= p x ( 1− p )n−x
x ! (n−x ) !
Page 4
Prob of a Defect p=.0001
Exact Probability Calculator for number of defective units in a sample given a defect rate
p: "Known" fraction of defective units…"reject rate"
P(x): The probability of exactly x defective units in a sample of size, n
n= 5,000
p= 0.0001 np = 0.5
x P(x) Poisson P(x) Binomial
Distribution of Probable Number of Defective Units
0 0.60653066 #VALUE! Poisson Probability
Probability of Occurence
50%
3 0.01263606 #VALUE! 40%
4 0.00157951 #VALUE! 30%
20%
5 0.00015795 #VALUE! 10%
6 1.3163E-05 #VALUE! 0%
7 9.4018E-07 #VALUE! 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
9 3.2645E-09 #VALUE!
10 1.6323E-10 #VALUE! x
11 7.4194E-12 #VALUE! np −np
12 3.0914E-13 #VALUE! P( x )= e
13 1.189E-14 #VALUE! x!
14 4.2464E-16 #VALUE!
15 1.4155E-17 #VALUE!
Page 5
Prob of a Defect p=.0001
1200%
1000%
Probability of Occurence
800%
600%
400%
200%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
# Defective Units in the Sample
n!
P ( x )= p x ( 1− p )n−x
x ! (n−x ) !
Page 6