2022-2023

Operations Research.

Lecture Two
- Network Analysis
- PERT Method

Asst. Lect. Hiba Dhaher

University of Technology
Electrical engineering depart.
1-2 Pert Method:
The main objective in the analysis through Pert is to find out the completion for a
particular event within specified date. The pert approach takes into account the
uncertainties. The three time values are associated with each activity.

1- Optimistic time (to): it is the shortest possible time in which the activity can
be finished. It assumes that everything goes very well this is denoted by (to).
2- Most likely time(tm): it is the estimate of the normal time the activity would
take. This assumes normal delays. If a graph is plotted in the time of
completion and the frequency of completion in that time period, then most
likely time will represent the highest frequency of occurrence. This is dented
(tm).
3- Pessimistic time (tp): it represents the longest time the activity could take if
everything goes wrong. As in optimistic estimate, this value may be such that
only one in hundred or one in twenty will take time longer than this value. This
is denoted by(tp).
4- Expected time: it is the average time an activity will take if it were to be
repeated on large number of times and based on the assumption that the
activity time is given by:

5- The variance for activity is given by:

( )

6- The variance for a project is given by:

√( ) ( )
7- The probability of completing the project in a specific time is given
by:

Where x represent to a specific time, te the expected time, SR the project

variance.

1
 Example1:
For the following project

A C

B E H
1 3 5 7

F K
I
D
4 6 8

G J

Activities A B C D E F G H I J K
Least
4 5 8 2 4 6 8 5 3 5 6
time(to)
Greatest
8 10 12 7 10 15 16 9 7 11 13
time
Most likely
5 7 11 3 7 9 12 6 5 8 9
time
Find the earliest and latest expected time to each event and also critical
path in the network.
Solution:

Expected time
Most likely
Least time Greatest time
Activities time 4
(to) (tp)
(tm)
6

A 4 8 5 5.33
B 5 10 7 7.17
C 8 12 11 10.67
D 2 7 3 3.5
E 4 10 7 7
F 6 15 9 9.5
G 8 16 12 12
H 5 9 6 6.33
I 3 7 5 5
J 5 11 8 8
K 6 13 9 9.17

2
 2

5.33 10.67

7.17 7 6.33
1 3 5 7

9.5 9.17
5
9.
3.5
4 6 8

12 8

5.33
5.33

5.33 10.67
0 16 23
0 16 23
7.17 7 6.33 29.33
1 3 5 7 29.33

9.5 9.17
5
9.
3.5
4 6 8

12 8
3.5 28 38.5
13.5 30.5 38.5

CP = A-C-E-H-K =1-2-3-5-7-8 =38.5

3
Example 2:
A project has the following characteristic
Most Most
Most
Optimistic Pessimistic
Activity likely time
time (to) in time (tp) in
(tm) in month
month month
(1-2) 1 5 1.5
(2-3) 1 3 2
(2-4) 1 5 3
(3-5) 3 5 4
(4-5) 2 4 3
(4-6) 3 7 5
(5-7) 4 6 5
(6-7) 6 8 7
(7-8) 2 6 4
(7-9) 5 8 6
(8-10) 1 3 2
(9-10) 3 7 5

Construct a PERT network. Find the critical path and variance for each event.

Solution:
Most Expected time Variance
Most Most
likely ( )
Activity Optimistic Pessimistic
time
time (to) time (tp)
(tm)
(1-2) 1 5 1.5 2 4/9
(2-3) 1 3 2 2 1/9
(2-4) 1 5 3 3 4/9
(3-5) 3 5 4 4 1/9
(4-5) 2 4 3 3 1/9
(4-6) 3 7 5 5 4/9
(5-7) 4 6 5 5 1/9
(6-7) 6 8 7 7 1/9
(7-8) 2 6 4 4 4/9
(7-9) 5 8 6 6.17 1/4
(8-10) 1 3 2 2 1/9
(9-10) 3 7 5 5 4/9

4
 4 8
8 12 19
4 26.7
3 5
8
5 2 2
17
0
17 28.17
0
1 10 28.17
2 7
3

5
2 7 6.17 9

23.17
2 4 6
23.17
3 5
2 5 10
2 5 10

Path1 =1-2-3-5-7-8-10=21
Path2 =1-2-4-6-7-9-10=28.17 max
CP =1-2-4-6-7-9-10=28.17
Example3:
A project is represented by the network as shown below and the following data
Task A B C D E F G H I
Activity 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-5 2-6 3-6 4-7 5-7 6-7
Least time 5 18 26 16 15 6 7 7 3
Greatest time 10 22 40 20 25 12 12 9 5
Most likely time 15 20 33 18 20 9 10 8 4

Determine the following:

1- Expected task time and their variance.

2- Earliest and Latest time.
3- Draw the network. (H.W)

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Solution:

Least Greatest Most likely Expected

Variance
Activity time time time time
(to) (tp) (tm) (te)
1-2 5 10 8 7.8 0.69
1-3 18 22 20 20 0.44
1-4 26 40 33 33 5.43
2-5 16 20 18 18 0.44
2-6 15 25 20 20 2.78
3-6 6 12 9 9 1.00
4-7 7 12 10 9 0.69
5-7 7 9 8 8 0.11
6-7 3 5 4 4 0.11

Earliest start time

EST (1) =0
EST (2) =0+7.8=7.8
EST (3) =0+20=20
EST (4) =0+33=33
EST (5) =7.8+18=25.8

EST (6) = 7.8+20 =27.8

= 20+9 =29 max

EST (7) =33+9.8=42.8 max

=25.8+8=33.8
=29+4=33

Latest start time

LST (7) =42.8
LST (6) =42.8-4=38.8
LST (5) = 42.8-9.8=33
LST (4) = 42.8=9.8=33
LST (3) = 38.8-9=29.8

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LST (2) = 34.8-18=16.8 min
=38.8-20=18.8

LST (1) =16.8-7.8=9

= 29.8-20=9.8
= 33-33=0 min

Problems

1- IF the (Most Optimistic time (least time) t o, Most likely time tm, Most
Pessimistic (Greatest time) tp) are shown in the network bellow. Calculate the
variance and the expected time for each activity.

8-12-17 12-14-15
2 5 8

4-7-10
3-6-10

6-7-12 10-12-15 13-16-19

1 9
3 6

6-8-12

7-9-12 4 7 1
1
0 1
8-13-18 10-13-17 10-12-14
2- The time estimates (in hours) for the activities of a PERT network
are given below:
Activities t0 tm tp
1-2 1 1 7
1-3 1 4 7
1-4 2 2 8
2-5 1 1 1
3-5 2 5 14
4-6 2 5 8
5-6 3 6 15
a- Find the earliest and latest time.
b- Slake time.
c- Draw the project network