Asphalt emulsions markets worldwide

Étienne le Bouteiller
IBEF – Senior advisor
Content
• Background: where do we come from?
• Data collection: worldwide survey 2017 – 2018 - 2019
• Results of the survey
• Past trends: learning for the future
• Future?
• Conclusion
Background
• Any industry has to know and understand its own market v/s
competition, so that to build its strategy and take the right decisions
• Until the IBEF was created in 1996, no international data about asphalt
emulsion was publicly available
• No comprehensive and international survey had been done at that time
• For some countries, data were recorded: Japan, UK, France
• Success stories from other countries can benefit to the others
• A need for a global approach: international surveys
• Survey 2017 – 2018 - 2019
Background
International symposium on Asphalt Presentation about figures from
Technology 1990 to 2005
• ISAET 2008 • Collection of various data from
• ISAET 2012 1990 to 2002
• ISAET 2016 • Survey for 2005
• Forecast from the industry:
trends for 2010 and 2020
Background
International symposium on Asphalt Presentation about figures from
Technology 1990 to 2005
• ISAET 2008 10000
• Collection of various data from
• ISAET 2012
9000
1990 to 2002
• ISAET 2016
8000
• Survey for 2005
7800

7000
kT
6967

6000
5800
5623
5388
5000

4000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
years
Background
International symposium on Asphalt
Technology Emulsions in the World: main trends
• ISAET 2008 • Pros & cons
• ISAET 2012 • Funding shortage (subprimes
• ISAET 2016 crisis)
• Technological breakthroughs
Background
International symposium on Asphalt
Technology
• ISAET 2008
• ISAET 2012
• ISAET 2016
Background
International symposium on Asphalt
Technology Markets and challenges
• ISAET 2008 • Survey 2013
• ISAET 2012 • Forecast from the industry (2020)
• ISAET 2016 • Challenges to address
• Asphalt quality and consistency
• Recommendations
• Act local, think global: use the IBEF
vehicle
Background
International symposium on Asphalt
Technology
• ISAET 2008
2005 2013
• ISAET 2012 USA
USA

• ISAET 2016
France
Mexico
France
Brazil
1,868,824 2,031,616 2,070,000
Brazil 2,446,000 Mexico

Canada China

Spain 158,000 Russia

200,000 151,384
China Canada
203,000 193,000 869,000
Japan India
215,000
300,000 990,000 Japan
Russia
250,000 550,000
Italy 330,176 United Kingdom
650,000 406,000
Others 350,000 Others
400,000 440,000 500,000

7,896,000 T 7,676,000 T
Data collection

What? How?
• Consumption of asphalt and • IBEF members and network (34
asphalt emulsions from 2017 to members)
2019 • National associations
• Asphalt: 137 countries • Industry: emulsion, chemicals,
• Emulsions: 99 countries equipment
• No specific details about the • Personal network
techniques
Data collection

What?
• Consumption of asphalt and
asphalt emulsions from 2016 to France
2019
• Asphalt: 137 countries
• Emulsions: 99 countries
• No specific details about the
techniques UK
Data collection

What? Limits / validity

• Consumption of asphalt and • Some data are estimates,
asphalt emulsions from 2016 to including for big countries
2019 • Means are sometimes
• Asphalt: 137 countries meaningless
• Emulsions: 99 countries • Importance of medium – long
• No specific details about the term changes
techniques
Results
• Asphalt emulsion • Asphalt
• 8.7 millions MT • 111 millions MT

(Argus asphalt annual 2020: 141 millions MT)

Results
• Asphalt emulsion
• 8.7 millions MT

10000

9000

8000
7800

7000

kT
6967

6000
5800
5623
5388
5000

4000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
years
Results (contd.)
• Asphalt emulsion Top 10
• 8.7 millions MT • Top 4 countries produce
50% of the Worldwide
volumes
• Top 10 countries produce
70% of the Worldwide
volumes
• 4 countries are from
Americas
• Growing shares of China #2
and India #5
Past trends
• From 2013 to 2019 • Average growth: 1% @ year
from 2013 to 2019
• Drop in 2015 & 2016 (Brazil)
• Growth mainly driven by Asia,
especially India & China
 Past trends (Contd.)
• From 2013 to 2019 • Average growth: 1% @ year
from 2013 to 2019
Growth per continent • Asia: + 62%
180
• Rest of the World: - 6%
160

140
Africa
Americas
• USA & Canada: - 10%
120 Asia

107 Europe
105 106
100 100 101 97 Oceania
97
Total
80

60
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
 Past trends (Contd.)
• From 2013 to 2019 • USA & Canada: - 10%
• Decreasing market share of
Asphalt & Emulsion makkets in USA & Canada asphalt emulsion
120.0

115.0

110.0
• Asphalt emulsion: - 10%
105.0

100.0
• Liquid asphalt: + 15%
95.0

90.0

85.0

80.0
2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019

Emulsion 100 1993 Bitumen 100 1993

Future trends?
Forecast from the industry in 2008:
Trend for 2020 Forecast v/s actual in 2019
• USA: increase • 2,200 kT v/s 1,870 kT
• China: decrease • 300 kT v/s 1,200 kT
• France: increase • 911 kT v/s 739 kT
• Mexico: Increase • 750 kT v/s 536 kT
• India: Increase • 205 kT v/s 510 kT
Future trends?
• The industry is not that aware of its own market
• The right knowledge of the domestic market is a pre-requisite for
realistic forecasts
• This knowledge should include the various usages of the emulsions
Usage in France Usage the UK
Future trends?

External parameters Internal parameters

• Funds allocated by road • Making the public and
agenciesfor pavement politicians aware of the
preservation importance of pavement
• Regulations: HSE, CO2, IMO preservation (lobbying)
• Competition with other • Adapt the offer to the needs of
systems the road agencies
• Build credibility based on
success stories
• Learn from the others
Future trends?

Learn from the others

Future trends?

Learn from the others

• A single example: market
penetration
• Defined as volumes of
emulsion v/s total
volumes of asphalt used in
a country
Future trends?

Learn from the others

• Why Mexico, France and
Brazil are doing so well?
• An extensive use of
asphalt emulsion for
pavement preservation,
especially for surface
treatments
Future trends?

Learn from the others Figures are figures

• Why Mexico, France and • Average ratio for Mexico, France
Brazil are doing so well? and Brazil: 30.1%
• An extensive use of • Average worldwide ratio: 7.8%
asphalt emulsion for • Ambition means realism
pavement preservation,
especially for surface • The goal is in our own hands:
treatments from 8.7 to 33.5 millions MT
• Is that a dream?????
Conclusion

Figures are figures

• Average ratio for Mexico, France
and Brazil: 30.1%
• Average worldwide ratio: 7.8%
• Ambition means realism
• The goal is in our own hands:
from 8.7 to 33.5 millions MT
• Is that a dream?????
Thank you for your attention
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