Notes 13.

5: Conditional Probability
I. Definitions and Formulas
The probability of an event given that some other event has
occurred. i.e. a reduced sample space.


It is written as P B | A  - the probability of B given A.

P(A  B)
 PB | A  
P(A)
Notes 13.5: Conditional Probability
E.g. Given that the toss of a die is even, what is the probability
that it is divisible by three?

Method 1: Reduced sample space is {2,4,6} 1

P(Divisible by 3 | toss is even) =
3
P(A  B)
Method 2: Using PB | A  
P(A)
1
 6  1
1 3
2

II. Basic Examples

Ex 1:
If Independent….. S T
P(S )  .2 + .25 = .45

• If events A and B are independent, then 0.2 0.25 0.35 P(T )  .35 * .25 = .6
event B will not be influenced by whether
event A has occurred, and so PB | A  P( B) 0.2 P( S  T )  .25

P( S | T )  P(T | S )  P( S | T ' ) 
P( A  B) P( B)  P( A)
PB | A    P( B) P(A  B)
P( A) P( A)  PB | A  
P(A)
 Ex 2: A frog climbing out of a well is affected by the weather.
When it rains, he falls back down the well with a probability of 1/10.
Ex 3: A math teacher gave her class two
In dry weather, he only falls back down with probability of 1/25. tests. 25% of the class passed both tests
The probability of rain is 1/5.
Find the probability that given he falls it was a rainy day.
and 42% of the class passed the first test.
Let's start by drawing the tree diagram of these events: What percent of those who passed the
first test also passed the second test?

P(First and Second) 0.25

P(Second|First) = = = 0.60 = 60%
P(First) 0.42

III. Using tables IV. Constructing a tree diagram

3
Conditional probabilities can be The probability of rain in Manchester on any Monday is . If it rains
found simply from data in 5
French German Total 4
tables, as illustrated by the on a Monday, then the probability of rain on Tuesday is . If it does
following. Male 40 40 80 5
The table opposite shows the 3
choices of language and the Female 90 30 120 not rain on Monday the probability of rain on Tuesday is .
5
gender of the 200 students Total 130 70 200 Construct a tree diagram to show this information.
choosing those languages.
Tuesday Rain
3 4 12
´ =
d) being female, given 4
A student is choosing at 5 5 25
he/she studies French. 90 Monday 5
random, find the probability of Rain 1
that student, 130 3
5 3 1 3
130 5 No rain ´ =
a) studying French, 5 5 25
200 e) studying German, 2 3
given that he is male. 40 Rain 2 3 6
´ =
80 5 No rain 5
b) being male, 5 5 25
200 80 2
c) being male and 40 Keep the denominators 5 2 2 4
the same in the final No rain ´ =
studying German, 200 5 5 25
working.
 Probabilities Additional Example
A teacher oversleeps with a
probability of 0.3. If she oversleeps Misses
a) 0.8 0.24
then the probability that she eats breakfast
Oversleeps
breakfast is 0.2, otherwise it will be 0.3 0.2Eats
0.06
breakfast
0.6.
0.4 Misses
0.7 Does not 0.28
breakfast
a) Construct a tree diagram to show oversleep
this information. 0.6
Eats
0.42
breakfast
Use your diagram to find the
probability that,
Calculate the probability that,
b) she oversleeps and does not eat b) 0.24
21 breakfast,
a) it rains at least once,
25

b) it rains one day only,

9 c) she does not have breakfast, c) 0.52
25
d) she overslept, given he has 6
c) it rains on one day only, rain on one day only 9 9 d)
= breakfast, 48
given it rains at least once. rained at least once 9+12 21
e) she overslept, given he does not
24
It is possible to ignore the denominators here only if they are the same at e)
the end of your tree diagram. have breakfast. 52