Thayer Is Duterte China's Useful Idiot'
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Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer Is Duterte China's Useful Idiot'
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Carlyle Alan ThayerThayer Consultancy Background Brief:
ABN # 65 648 097 123
Is Duterte China’s ‘Useful
Idiot’?
June 29, 2023
Ex-President Duterte says Chinese
envoy told him PH will be ‘target’ if it
aids US in attacking China
DAVAO CITY – Former President
Rodrigo Duterte claimed that Chinese
Ambassador Huang Xilian told him
that the Philippines will not be spared
if it allows the United States to utilize
its military installations in the country
to launch an aggressive action against
China.
mb.com.ph
DAVAO CITY – Former President Rodrigo Duterte claimed that Chinese Ambassador
Huang Xilian told him that the Philippines will not be spared if it allows the United
States to utilize its military installations in the country to launch an aggressive action
against China.
https://mb.com.ph/2023/6/27/ex-president-duterte-says-chinese-envoy-told-him-
ph-will-be-target-if-it-aids-us-in-attacking-china.
Do you think Duterte’s comments will impact the Enhanced Defense Cooperation
Agreement (EDCA)?
ANSWER: Former President Rodrigo Duterte continues to live in his bubble of anti-
American suspicion and distrust. His comments will not have a major impact on the
Philippines-U.S. Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement because his premises are
without foundation. The United States will never unilaterally initiate an armed conflict
with China, especially from the Philippines where no strategic nuclear forces are based
to support such an action.
2
The American president does not have the power to declare war, that is the
constitutional responsibility of the U.S. Congress.
EDCA and the Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) are separate but linked agreements. If
either the United States or the Philippines are attacked by China they are obliged to
consult under their separate constitutional processes to decide how they will respond.
EDCA give the U.S. non-permanent rotational access to Filipino bases. The Philippines
must be notified of what weapons and equipment are deployed to these facilities.
There is absolutely no possibility the United States would surreptitiously attempt to
smuggle in nuclear weapons to EDCA facilities.
The Philippines retains full sovereignty over EDCA facilities and can monitor and
inspect each of them to satisfy that the letter and spirit of any agreement on U.S.
temporary rotation is being observed.
Duterte’s comments calling on the U.S. to “come clean and give us a truthful narration
or narrative or an explanation and identify the places where they have installed bases
here in the Philippines” is fanciful. The government of the Philippines is fully capable
of monitoring EDCA. The U.S. cannot willy nilly install a base without the Philippines
knowing about it.
In sum, China’s Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian is interfering in the
domestic affairs of the Philippines in an attempt to undermine the Philippines-U.S.
MDT. President Duterte is China’s “useful idiot”.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Is Duterte China’s ‘Useful Idiot’?,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, June 29, 2023. All background briefs are posted on
Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
