Statistics

Statistics (from German: Statistik, orig. "description of

a state, a country")[1][2] is the discipline that concerns
the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and
presentation of data.[3][4][5] In applying statistics to a
scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is
conventional to begin with a statistical population or a
statistical model to be studied. Populations can be
diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people
living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal".
Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the
planning of data collection in terms of the design of The normal distribution, a very common
surveys and experiments.[6] probability density, is used extensively in
inferential statistics.
When census data cannot be collected, statisticians
collect data by developing specific experiment designs
and survey samples. Representative sampling assures
that inferences and conclusions can reasonably extend
from the sample to the population as a whole. An
experimental study involves taking measurements of the
system under study, manipulating the system, and then
taking additional measurements using the same
procedure to determine if the manipulation has
modified the values of the measurements. In contrast,
an observational study does not involve experimental
manipulation.

Two main statistical methods are used in data analysis:

descriptive statistics, which summarize data from a
sample using indexes such as the mean or standard
deviation, and inferential statistics, which draw
conclusions from data that are subject to random Scatter plots and line charts are used in
variation (e.g., observational errors, sampling descriptive statistics to show the observed
variation). [7] Descriptive statistics are most often relationships between different variables, here
concerned with two sets of properties of a distribution using the Iris flower data set.
(sample or population): central tendency (or location)
seeks to characterize the distribution's central or typical
value, while dispersion (or variability) characterizes the extent to which members of the distribution
depart from its center and each other. Inferences on mathematical statistics are made under the
framework of probability theory, which deals with the analysis of random phenomena.

A standard statistical procedure involves the collection of data leading to a test of the relationship
between two statistical data sets, or a data set and synthetic data drawn from an idealized model. A
hypothesis is proposed for the statistical relationship between the two data sets, and this is compared
as an alternative to an idealized null hypothesis of no relationship between two data sets. Rejecting or
disproving the null hypothesis is done using statistical tests that quantify the sense in which the null
can be proven false, given the data that are used in the test. Working from a null hypothesis, two basic
forms of error are recognized: Type I errors (null hypothesis is falsely rejected giving a "false
positive") and Type II errors (null hypothesis fails to be rejected and an actual relationship between
populations is missed giving a "false negative").[8] Multiple problems have come to be associated with
this framework, ranging from obtaining a sufficient sample size to specifying an adequate null
hypothesis.[7]

Statistical measurement processes are also prone to error in regards to the data that they generate.
Many of these errors are classified as random (noise) or systematic (bias), but other types of errors
(e.g., blunder, such as when an analyst reports incorrect units) can also occur. The presence of
missing data or censoring may result in biased estimates and specific techniques have been developed
to address these problems.

Introduction
Statistics is a mathematical body of science that pertains to the collection, analysis, interpretation or
explanation, and presentation of data,[9] or as a branch of mathematics.[10] Some consider statistics to
be a distinct mathematical science rather than a branch of mathematics. While many scientific
investigations make use of data, statistics is concerned with the use of data in the context of
uncertainty and decision-making in the face of uncertainty.[11][12]

In applying statistics to a problem, it is common practice to start with a population or process to be

studied. Populations can be diverse topics, such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom
composing a crystal". Ideally, statisticians compile data about the entire population (an operation
called a census). This may be organized by governmental statistical institutes. Descriptive statistics
can be used to summarize the population data. Numerical descriptors include mean and standard
deviation for continuous data (like income), while frequency and percentage are more useful in terms
of describing categorical data (like education).

When a census is not feasible, a chosen subset of the population called a sample is studied. Once a
sample that is representative of the population is determined, data is collected for the sample
members in an observational or experimental setting. Again, descriptive statistics can be used to
summarize the sample data. However, drawing the sample contains an element of randomness;
hence, the numerical descriptors from the sample are also prone to uncertainty. To draw meaningful
conclusions about the entire population, inferential statistics are needed. It uses patterns in the
sample data to draw inferences about the population represented while accounting for randomness.
These inferences may take the form of answering yes/no questions about the data (hypothesis
testing), estimating numerical characteristics of the data (estimation), describing associations within
the data (correlation), and modeling relationships within the data (for example, using regression
analysis). Inference can extend to the forecasting, prediction, and estimation of unobserved values
either in or associated with the population being studied. It can include extrapolation and
interpolation of time series or spatial data, as well as data mining.

Mathematical statistics
Mathematical statistics is the application of mathematics to statistics. Mathematical techniques used
for this include mathematical analysis, linear algebra, stochastic analysis, differential equations, and
measure-theoretic probability theory.[13][14]

History
Formal discussions on inference date back to Arab
mathematicians and cryptographers, during the Islamic Golden
Age between the 8th and 13th centuries. Al-Khalil (717–786) wrote
the Book of Cryptographic Messages, which contains one of the
first uses of permutations and combinations, to list all possible
Arabic words with and without vowels.[15] Al-Kindi's Manuscript
on Deciphering Cryptographic Messages gave a detailed
description of how to use frequency analysis to decipher encrypted
messages, providing an early example of statistical inference for
decoding. Ibn Adlan (1187–1268) later made an important
contribution on the use of sample size in frequency analysis.[15]

The term 'statistic' was introduced by the Italian scholar Girolamo

Ghilini in 1589 with reference to this science.[16][17] The earliest
Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi was the
writing containing statistics in Europe dates back to 1663, with the first work that dealt with probability
publication of Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills theory as currently understood.
of Mortality by John Graunt.[18] Early applications of statistical
thinking revolved around the needs of states to base policy on
demographic and economic data, hence its stat- etymology. The scope of the discipline of statistics
broadened in the early 19th century to include the collection and analysis of data in general. Today,
statistics is widely employed in government, business, and natural and social sciences.

The mathematical foundations of statistics developed from discussions concerning games of chance
among mathematicians such as Gerolamo Cardano, Blaise Pascal, Pierre de Fermat, and Christiaan
Huygens. Although the idea of probability was already examined in ancient and medieval law and
philosophy (such as the work of Juan Caramuel), probability theory as a mathematical discipline only
took shape at the very end of the 17th century, particularly in Jacob Bernoulli's posthumous work Ars
Conjectandi.[19] This was the first book where the realm of games of chance and the realm of the
probable (which concerned opinion, evidence, and argument) were combined and submitted to
mathematical analysis.[20][21] The method of least squares was first described by Adrien-Marie
Legendre in 1805, though Carl Friedrich Gauss presumably made use of it a decade earlier in 1795.[22]

The modern field of statistics emerged in the late 19th and early
20th century in three stages.[23] The first wave, at the turn of the
century, was led by the work of Francis Galton and Karl Pearson,
who transformed statistics into a rigorous mathematical
discipline used for analysis, not just in science, but in industry
and politics as well. Galton's contributions included introducing
the concepts of standard deviation, correlation, regression
analysis and the application of these methods to the study of the
variety of human characteristics—height, weight and eyelash
length among others.[24] Pearson developed the Pearson Karl Pearson, a founder of
product-moment correlation coefficient, defined as a product- mathematical statistics.
moment,[25] the method of moments for the fitting of
distributions to samples and the Pearson distribution, among many other things.[26] Galton and
Pearson founded Biometrika as the first journal of mathematical statistics and biostatistics (then
called biometry), and the latter founded the world's first university statistics department at University
College London.[27]

The second wave of the 1910s and 20s was initiated by William Sealy Gosset, and reached its
culmination in the insights of Ronald Fisher, who wrote the textbooks that were to define the
academic discipline in universities around the world. Fisher's most important publications were his
1918 seminal paper The Correlation between Relatives on the Supposition of Mendelian Inheritance
(which was the first to use the statistical term, variance), his classic 1925 work Statistical Methods for
Research Workers and his 1935 The Design of Experiments,[28][29][30] where he developed rigorous
design of experiments models. He originated the concepts of sufficiency, ancillary statistics, Fisher's
linear discriminator and Fisher information.[31] He also coined the term null hypothesis during the
Lady tasting tea experiment, which "is never proved or established, but is possibly disproved, in the
course of experimentation".[32][33] In his 1930 book The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, he
applied statistics to various biological concepts such as Fisher's principle[34] (which A. W. F. Edwards
called "probably the most celebrated argument in evolutionary biology") and Fisherian
runaway,[35][36][37][38][39][40] a concept in sexual selection about a positive feedback runaway effect
found in evolution.

The final wave, which mainly saw the refinement and expansion of earlier developments, emerged
from the collaborative work between Egon Pearson and Jerzy Neyman in the 1930s. They introduced
the concepts of "Type II" error, power of a test and confidence intervals. Jerzy Neyman in 1934
showed that stratified random sampling was in general a better method of estimation than purposive
(quota) sampling.[41]

Today, statistical methods are applied in all fields that involve decision making, for making accurate
inferences from a collated body of data and for making decisions in the face of uncertainty based on
statistical methodology. The use of modern computers has expedited large-scale statistical
computations and has also made possible new methods that are impractical to perform manually.
Statistics continues to be an area of active research, for example on the problem of how to analyze big
data.[42]

Statistical data

Data collection

Sampling

When full census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect sample data by developing specific
experiment designs and survey samples. Statistics itself also provides tools for prediction and
forecasting through statistical models.

To use a sample as a guide to an entire population, it is important that it truly represents the overall
population. Representative sampling assures that inferences and conclusions can safely extend from
the sample to the population as a whole. A major problem lies in determining the extent that the
sample chosen is actually representative. Statistics offers methods to estimate and correct for any bias
within the sample and data collection procedures. There are also methods of experimental design that
can lessen these issues at the outset of a study, strengthening its capability to discern truths about the
population.

Sampling theory is part of the mathematical discipline of probability theory. Probability is used in
mathematical statistics to study the sampling distributions of sample statistics and, more generally,
the properties of statistical procedures. The use of any statistical method is valid when the system or
population under consideration satisfies the assumptions of the method. The difference in point of
view between classic probability theory and sampling theory is, roughly, that probability theory starts
from the given parameters of a total population to deduce probabilities that pertain to samples.
Statistical inference, however, moves in the opposite direction—inductively inferring from samples to
the parameters of a larger or total population.

Experimental and observational studies

A common goal for a statistical research project is to investigate causality, and in particular to draw a
conclusion on the effect of changes in the values of predictors or independent variables on dependent
variables. There are two major types of causal statistical studies: experimental studies and
observational studies. In both types of studies, the effect of differences of an independent variable (or
variables) on the behavior of the dependent variable are observed. The difference between the two
types lies in how the study is actually conducted. Each can be very effective. An experimental study
involves taking measurements of the system under study, manipulating the system, and then taking
additional measurements using the same procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified
the values of the measurements. In contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental
manipulation. Instead, data are gathered and correlations between predictors and response are
investigated. While the tools of data analysis work best on data from randomized studies, they are also
applied to other kinds of data—like natural experiments and observational studies[43]—for which a
statistician would use a modified, more structured estimation method (e.g., Difference in differences
estimation and instrumental variables, among many others) that produce consistent estimators.

Experiments

The basic steps of a statistical experiment are:

1. Planning the research, including finding the number of replicates of the study, using the following
information: preliminary estimates regarding the size of treatment effects, alternative hypotheses,
and the estimated experimental variability. Consideration of the selection of experimental subjects
and the ethics of research is necessary. Statisticians recommend that experiments compare (at
least) one new treatment with a standard treatment or control, to allow an unbiased estimate of
the difference in treatment effects.
2. Design of experiments, using blocking to reduce the influence of confounding variables, and
randomized assignment of treatments to subjects to allow unbiased estimates of treatment effects
and experimental error. At this stage, the experimenters and statisticians write the experimental
protocol that will guide the performance of the experiment and which specifies the primary
analysis of the experimental data.
3. Performing the experiment following the experimental protocol and analyzing the data following
the experimental protocol.
4. Further examining the data set in secondary analyses, to suggest new hypotheses for future
study.
5. Documenting and presenting the results of the study.
Experiments on human behavior have special concerns. The famous Hawthorne study examined
changes to the working environment at the Hawthorne plant of the Western Electric Company. The
researchers were interested in determining whether increased illumination would increase the
productivity of the assembly line workers. The researchers first measured the productivity in the
plant, then modified the illumination in an area of the plant and checked if the changes in
illumination affected productivity. It turned out that productivity indeed improved (under the
experimental conditions). However, the study is heavily criticized today for errors in experimental
procedures, specifically for the lack of a control group and blindness. The Hawthorne effect refers to
finding that an outcome (in this case, worker productivity) changed due to observation itself. Those in
the Hawthorne study became more productive not because the lighting was changed but because they
were being observed.[44]

Observational study

An example of an observational study is one that explores the association between smoking and lung
cancer. This type of study typically uses a survey to collect observations about the area of interest and
then performs statistical analysis. In this case, the researchers would collect observations of both
smokers and non-smokers, perhaps through a cohort study, and then look for the number of cases of
lung cancer in each group.[45] A case-control study is another type of observational study in which
people with and without the outcome of interest (e.g. lung cancer) are invited to participate and their
exposure histories are collected.

Types of data

Various attempts have been made to produce a taxonomy of levels of measurement. The
psychophysicist Stanley Smith Stevens defined nominal, ordinal, interval, and ratio scales. Nominal
measurements do not have meaningful rank order among values, and permit any one-to-one
(injective) transformation. Ordinal measurements have imprecise differences between consecutive
values, but have a meaningful order to those values, and permit any order-preserving transformation.
Interval measurements have meaningful distances between measurements defined, but the zero value
is arbitrary (as in the case with longitude and temperature measurements in Celsius or Fahrenheit),
and permit any linear transformation. Ratio measurements have both a meaningful zero value and the
distances between different measurements defined, and permit any rescaling transformation.

Because variables conforming only to nominal or ordinal measurements cannot be reasonably

measured numerically, sometimes they are grouped together as categorical variables, whereas ratio
and interval measurements are grouped together as quantitative variables, which can be either
discrete or continuous, due to their numerical nature. Such distinctions can often be loosely
correlated with data type in computer science, in that dichotomous categorical variables may be
represented with the Boolean data type, polytomous categorical variables with arbitrarily assigned
integers in the integral data type, and continuous variables with the real data type involving floating-
point arithmetic. But the mapping of computer science data types to statistical data types depends on
which categorization of the latter is being implemented.

Other categorizations have been proposed. For example, Mosteller and Tukey (1977)[46] distinguished
grades, ranks, counted fractions, counts, amounts, and balances. Nelder (1990)[47] described
continuous counts, continuous ratios, count ratios, and categorical modes of data. (See also:
Chrisman (1998),[48] van den Berg (1991).[49])
The issue of whether or not it is appropriate to apply different kinds of statistical methods to data
obtained from different kinds of measurement procedures is complicated by issues concerning the
transformation of variables and the precise interpretation of research questions. "The relationship
between the data and what they describe merely reflects the fact that certain kinds of statistical
statements may have truth values which are not invariant under some transformations. Whether or
not a transformation is sensible to contemplate depends on the question one is trying to
answer."[50]: 82 

Methods

Descriptive statistics

A descriptive statistic (in the count noun sense) is a summary statistic that quantitatively describes
or summarizes features of a collection of information,[51] while descriptive statistics in the mass
noun sense is the process of using and analyzing those statistics. Descriptive statistics is distinguished
from inferential statistics (or inductive statistics), in that descriptive statistics aims to summarize a
sample, rather than use the data to learn about the population that the sample of data is thought to
represent.[52]

Inferential statistics

Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to deduce properties of an underlying
probability distribution.[53] Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a population, for
example by testing hypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is
sampled from a larger population. Inferential statistics can be contrasted with descriptive statistics.
Descriptive statistics is solely concerned with properties of the observed data, and it does not rest on
the assumption that the data come from a larger population.[54]

Terminology and theory of inferential statistics

Statistics, estimators and pivotal quantities

Consider independent identically distributed (IID) random variables with a given probability
distribution: standard statistical inference and estimation theory defines a random sample as the
random vector given by the column vector of these IID variables.[55] The population being examined
is described by a probability distribution that may have unknown parameters.

A statistic is a random variable that is a function of the random sample, but not a function of
unknown parameters. The probability distribution of the statistic, though, may have unknown
parameters. Consider now a function of the unknown parameter: an estimator is a statistic used to
estimate such function. Commonly used estimators include sample mean, unbiased sample variance
and sample covariance.

A random variable that is a function of the random sample and of the unknown parameter, but whose
probability distribution does not depend on the unknown parameter is called a pivotal quantity or
pivot. Widely used pivots include the z-score, the chi square statistic and Student's t-value.
Between two estimators of a given parameter, the one with lower mean squared error is said to be
more efficient. Furthermore, an estimator is said to be unbiased if its expected value is equal to the
true value of the unknown parameter being estimated, and asymptotically unbiased if its expected
value converges at the limit to the true value of such parameter.

Other desirable properties for estimators include: UMVUE estimators that have the lowest variance
for all possible values of the parameter to be estimated (this is usually an easier property to verify
than efficiency) and consistent estimators which converges in probability to the true value of such
parameter.

This still leaves the question of how to obtain estimators in a given situation and carry the
computation, several methods have been proposed: the method of moments, the maximum likelihood
method, the least squares method and the more recent method of estimating equations.

Null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis

Interpretation of statistical information can often involve the development of a null hypothesis which
is usually (but not necessarily) that no relationship exists among variables or that no change occurred
over time.[56][57]

The best illustration for a novice is the predicament encountered by a criminal trial. The null
hypothesis, H0, asserts that the defendant is innocent, whereas the alternative hypothesis, H1, asserts
that the defendant is guilty. The indictment comes because of suspicion of the guilt. The H0 (status
quo) stands in opposition to H1 and is maintained unless H1 is supported by evidence "beyond a
reasonable doubt". However, "failure to reject H0" in this case does not imply innocence, but merely
that the evidence was insufficient to convict. So the jury does not necessarily accept H0 but fails to
reject H0. While one can not "prove" a null hypothesis, one can test how close it is to being true with a
power test, which tests for type II errors.

What statisticians call an alternative hypothesis is simply a hypothesis that contradicts the null
hypothesis.

Error

Working from a null hypothesis, two broad categories of error are recognized:

Type I errors where the null hypothesis is falsely rejected, giving a "false positive".
Type II errors where the null hypothesis fails to be rejected and an actual difference between
populations is missed, giving a "false negative".

Standard deviation refers to the extent to which individual observations in a sample differ from a
central value, such as the sample or population mean, while Standard error refers to an estimate of
difference between sample mean and population mean.

A statistical error is the amount by which an observation differs from its expected value. A residual is
the amount an observation differs from the value the estimator of the expected value assumes on a
given sample (also called prediction).

Mean squared error is used for obtaining efficient estimators, a widely used class of estimators. Root
mean square error is simply the square root of mean squared error.
Many statistical methods seek to minimize the residual sum of
squares, and these are called "methods of least squares" in
contrast to Least absolute deviations. The latter gives equal weight
to small and big errors, while the former gives more weight to
large errors. Residual sum of squares is also differentiable, which
provides a handy property for doing regression. Least squares
applied to linear regression is called ordinary least squares
method and least squares applied to nonlinear regression is called
non-linear least squares. Also in a linear regression model the non
deterministic part of the model is called error term, disturbance or
more simply noise. Both linear regression and non-linear
regression are addressed in polynomial least squares, which also A least squares fit: in red the points
describes the variance in a prediction of the dependent variable (y to be fitted, in blue the fitted line.
axis) as a function of the independent variable (x axis) and the
deviations (errors, noise, disturbances) from the estimated (fitted)
curve.

Measurement processes that generate statistical data are also subject to error. Many of these errors
are classified as random (noise) or systematic (bias), but other types of errors (e.g., blunder, such as
when an analyst reports incorrect units) can also be important. The presence of missing data or
censoring may result in biased estimates and specific techniques have been developed to address
these problems.[58]

Interval estimation

Most studies only sample part of a population, so results do not

fully represent the whole population. Any estimates obtained from
the sample only approximate the population value. Confidence
intervals allow statisticians to express how closely the sample
estimate matches the true value in the whole population. Often
Confidence intervals: the red line is
they are expressed as 95% confidence intervals. Formally, a 95%
true value for the mean in this
confidence interval for a value is a range where, if the sampling example, the blue lines are random
and analysis were repeated under the same conditions (yielding a
confidence intervals for 100
different dataset), the interval would include the true (population) realizations.
value in 95% of all possible cases. This does not imply that the
probability that the true value is in the confidence interval is 95%.
From the frequentist perspective, such a claim does not even make sense, as the true value is not a
random variable. Either the true value is or is not within the given interval. However, it is true that,
before any data are sampled and given a plan for how to construct the confidence interval, the
probability is 95% that the yet-to-be-calculated interval will cover the true value: at this point, the
limits of the interval are yet-to-be-observed random variables. One approach that does yield an
interval that can be interpreted as having a given probability of containing the true value is to use a
credible interval from Bayesian statistics: this approach depends on a different way of interpreting
what is meant by "probability", that is as a Bayesian probability.
In principle confidence intervals can be symmetrical or asymmetrical. An interval can be
asymmetrical because it works as lower or upper bound for a parameter (left-sided interval or right
sided interval), but it can also be asymmetrical because the two sided interval is built violating
symmetry around the estimate. Sometimes the bounds for a confidence interval are reached
asymptotically and these are used to approximate the true bounds.

Significance

Statistics rarely give a simple Yes/No type answer to the question under analysis. Interpretation often
comes down to the level of statistical significance applied to the numbers and often refers to the
probability of a value accurately rejecting the null hypothesis (sometimes referred to as the p-value).

The standard approach[55] is to test a

null hypothesis against an alternative
hypothesis. A critical region is the set of
values of the estimator that leads to
refuting the null hypothesis. The
probability of type I error is therefore
the probability that the estimator
belongs to the critical region given that
null hypothesis is true (statistical
significance) and the probability of type
II error is the probability that the
estimator doesn't belong to the critical
region given that the alternative
hypothesis is true. The statistical power
of a test is the probability that it
correctly rejects the null hypothesis
when the null hypothesis is false.

Referring to statistical significance does

not necessarily mean that the overall
result is significant in real world terms.
For example, in a large study of a drug it
may be shown that the drug has a In this graph the black line is probability distribution for the test
statistically significant but very small statistic, the critical region is the set of values to the right of the
beneficial effect, such that the drug is observed data point (observed value of the test statistic) and the p-
unlikely to help the patient noticeably. value is represented by the green area.

Although in principle the acceptable

level of statistical significance may be subject to debate, the significance level is the largest p-value
that allows the test to reject the null hypothesis. This test is logically equivalent to saying that the p-
value is the probability, assuming the null hypothesis is true, of observing a result at least as extreme
as the test statistic. Therefore, the smaller the significance level, the lower the probability of
committing type I error.

Some problems are usually associated with this framework (See criticism of hypothesis testing):

A difference that is highly statistically significant can still be of no practical significance, but it is
possible to properly formulate tests to account for this. One response involves going beyond
reporting only the significance level to include the p-value when reporting whether a hypothesis is
 rejected or accepted. The p-value, however, does not indicate the size or importance of the
observed effect and can also seem to exaggerate the importance of minor differences in large
studies. A better and increasingly common approach is to report confidence intervals. Although
these are produced from the same calculations as those of hypothesis tests or p-values, they
describe both the size of the effect and the uncertainty surrounding it.
Fallacy of the transposed conditional, aka prosecutor's fallacy: criticisms arise because the
hypothesis testing approach forces one hypothesis (the null hypothesis) to be favored, since what
is being evaluated is the probability of the observed result given the null hypothesis and not
probability of the null hypothesis given the observed result. An alternative to this approach is
offered by Bayesian inference, although it requires establishing a prior probability.[59]
Rejecting the null hypothesis does not automatically prove the alternative hypothesis.
As everything in inferential statistics it relies on sample size, and therefore under fat tails p-values
may be seriously mis-computed.

Examples

Some well-known statistical tests and procedures are:

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Pearson product-moment correlation

Chi-squared test coefficient
Correlation Regression analysis
Factor analysis Spearman's rank correlation coefficient
Mann–Whitney U Student's t-test
Mean square weighted deviation (MSWD) Time series analysis
Conjoint Analysis

Exploratory data analysis

Exploratory data analysis (EDA) is an approach to analyzing data sets to summarize their main
characteristics, often with visual methods. A statistical model can be used or not, but primarily EDA is
for seeing what the data can tell us beyond the formal modeling or hypothesis testing task.

Misuse
Misuse of statistics can produce subtle but serious errors in description and interpretation—subtle in
the sense that even experienced professionals make such errors, and serious in the sense that they can
lead to devastating decision errors. For instance, social policy, medical practice, and the reliability of
structures like bridges all rely on the proper use of statistics.

Even when statistical techniques are correctly applied, the results can be difficult to interpret for
those lacking expertise. The statistical significance of a trend in the data—which measures the extent
to which a trend could be caused by random variation in the sample—may or may not agree with an
intuitive sense of its significance. The set of basic statistical skills (and skepticism) that people need to
deal with information in their everyday lives properly is referred to as statistical literacy.

There is a general perception that statistical knowledge is all-too-frequently intentionally misused by

finding ways to interpret only the data that are favorable to the presenter.[60] A mistrust and
misunderstanding of statistics is associated with the quotation, "There are three kinds of lies: lies,
damned lies, and statistics". Misuse of statistics can be both inadvertent and intentional, and the book
How to Lie with Statistics,[60] by Darrell Huff, outlines a range of considerations. In an attempt to
shed light on the use and misuse of statistics, reviews of statistical techniques used in particular fields
are conducted (e.g. Warne, Lazo, Ramos, and Ritter (2012)).[61]

Ways to avoid misuse of statistics include using proper diagrams and avoiding bias.[62] Misuse can
occur when conclusions are overgeneralized and claimed to be representative of more than they really
are, often by either deliberately or unconsciously overlooking sampling bias.[63] Bar graphs are
arguably the easiest diagrams to use and understand, and they can be made either by hand or with
simple computer programs.[62] Unfortunately, most people do not look for bias or errors, so they are
not noticed. Thus, people may often believe that something is true even if it is not well
represented.[63] To make data gathered from statistics believable and accurate, the sample taken must
be representative of the whole.[64] According to Huff, "The dependability of a sample can be destroyed
by [bias]... allow yourself some degree of skepticism."[65]

To assist in the understanding of statistics Huff proposed a series of questions to be asked in each
case:[60]

Who says so? (Does he/she have an axe to grind?)

How does he/she know? (Does he/she have the resources to know the facts?)
What's missing? (Does he/she give us a complete picture?)
Did someone change the subject? (Does he/she offer us the right answer to the wrong problem?)
Does it make sense? (Is his/her conclusion logical and consistent with what we already know?)

Misinterpretation: correlation

The concept of correlation is particularly noteworthy for the potential

confusion it can cause. Statistical analysis of a data set often reveals
that two variables (properties) of the population under consideration
tend to vary together, as if they were connected. For example, a study
of annual income that also looks at age of death, might find that poor
people tend to have shorter lives than affluent people. The two
variables are said to be correlated; however, they may or may not be
The confounding variable
the cause of one another. The correlation phenomena could be
problem: X and Y may be
caused by a third, previously unconsidered phenomenon, called a
correlated, not because there is
lurking variable or confounding variable. For this reason, there is no
causal relationship between
way to immediately infer the existence of a causal relationship them, but because both depend
between the two variables. on a third variable Z. Z is called
a confounding factor.
Applications

Applied statistics, theoretical statistics and mathematical statistics

Applied statistics, sometimes referred to as Statistical science,[66] comprises descriptive statistics and
the application of inferential statistics.[67][68] Theoretical statistics concerns the logical arguments
underlying justification of approaches to statistical inference, as well as encompassing mathematical
statistics. Mathematical statistics includes not only the manipulation of probability distributions
necessary for deriving results related to methods of estimation and inference, but also various aspects
of computational statistics and the design of experiments.

Statistical consultants can help organizations and companies that do not have in-house expertise
relevant to their particular questions.

Machine learning and data mining

Machine learning models are statistical and probabilistic models that capture patterns in the data
through use of computational algorithms.

Statistics in academia

Statistics is applicable to a wide variety of academic disciplines, including natural and social sciences,
government, and business. Business statistics applies statistical methods in econometrics, auditing
and production and operations, including services improvement and marketing research.[69] A study
of two journals in tropical biology found that the 12 most frequent statistical tests are: analysis of
variance (ANOVA), chi-squared test, Student's t-test, linear regression, Pearson’s correlation
coefficient, Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Shannon’s diversity index, Tukey's range test,
cluster analysis, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and principal component analysis.[70]

A typical statistics course covers descriptive statistics, probability, binomial and normal distributions,
test of hypotheses and confidence intervals, linear regression, and correlation.[71] Modern
fundamental statistical courses for undergraduate students focus on correct test selection, results
interpretation, and use of free statistics software.[70]

Statistical computing

The rapid and sustained increases in computing power

starting from the second half of the 20th century have had a
substantial impact on the practice of statistical science. Early
statistical models were almost always from the class of linear
models, but powerful computers, coupled with suitable
numerical algorithms, caused an increased interest in
nonlinear models (such as neural networks) as well as the
creation of new types, such as generalized linear models and
multilevel models.

Increased computing power has also led to the growing

popularity of computationally intensive methods based on gretl, an example of an open source
resampling, such as permutation tests and the bootstrap, statistical package
while techniques such as Gibbs sampling have made use of
Bayesian models more feasible. The computer revolution has
implications for the future of statistics with a new emphasis on "experimental" and "empirical"
statistics. A large number of both general and special purpose statistical software are now available.
Examples of available software capable of complex statistical computation include programs such as
Mathematica, SAS, SPSS, and R.

Business statistics

In business, "statistics" is a widely used management- and decision support tool. It is particularly
applied in financial management, marketing management, and production, services and operations
management .[72][73] Statistics is also heavily used in management accounting and auditing. The
discipline of Management Science formalizes the use of statistics, and other mathematics, in business.
(Econometrics is the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical
content to economic relationships.)

A typical "Business Statistics" course is intended for business majors, and covers [74] descriptive
statistics (collection, description, analysis, and summary of data), probability (typically the binomial
and normal distributions), test of hypotheses and confidence intervals, linear regression, and
correlation; (follow-on) courses may include forecasting, time series, decision trees, multiple linear
regression, and other topics from business analytics more generally. See also Business mathematics
§  University level. Professional certification programs, such as the CFA, often include topics in
statistics.

Statistics applied to mathematics or the arts

Traditionally, statistics was concerned with drawing inferences using a semi-standardized

methodology that was "required learning" in most sciences. This tradition has changed with the use of
statistics in non-inferential contexts. What was once considered a dry subject, taken in many fields as
a degree-requirement, is now viewed enthusiastically. Initially derided by some mathematical purists,
it is now considered essential methodology in certain areas.

In number theory, scatter plots of data generated by a distribution function may be transformed
with familiar tools used in statistics to reveal underlying patterns, which may then lead to
hypotheses.
Predictive methods of statistics in forecasting combining chaos theory and fractal geometry can
be used to create video works.[75]
The process art of Jackson Pollock relied on artistic experiments whereby underlying distributions
in nature were artistically revealed.[76] With the advent of computers, statistical methods were
applied to formalize such distribution-driven natural processes to make and analyze moving video
art.
Methods of statistics may be used predicatively in performance art, as in a card trick based on a
Markov process that only works some of the time, the occasion of which can be predicted using
statistical methodology.
Statistics can be used to predicatively create art, as in the statistical or stochastic music invented
by Iannis Xenakis, where the music is performance-specific. Though this type of artistry does not
always come out as expected, it does behave in ways that are predictable and tunable using
statistics.

Specialized disciplines
Statistical techniques are used in a wide range of types of scientific and social research, including:
biostatistics, computational biology, computational sociology, network biology, social science,
sociology and social research. Some fields of inquiry use applied statistics so extensively that they
have specialized terminology. These disciplines include:

Actuarial science (assesses risk in the insurance and finance industries)

Applied information economics
Astrostatistics (statistical evaluation of astronomical data)
Biostatistics
Chemometrics (for analysis of data from chemistry)
Data mining (applying statistics and pattern recognition to discover knowledge from data)
Data science
Demography (statistical study of populations)
Econometrics (statistical analysis of economic data)
Energy statistics
Engineering statistics
Epidemiology (statistical analysis of disease)
Geography and geographic information systems, specifically in spatial analysis
Image processing
Jurimetrics (law)
Medical statistics
Political science
Psychological statistics
Reliability engineering
Social statistics
Statistical mechanics

In addition, there are particular types of statistical analysis that have also developed their own
specialised terminology and methodology:

Bootstrap / jackknife resampling

Multivariate statistics
Statistical classification
Structured data analysis
Structural equation modelling
Survey methodology
Survival analysis
Statistics in various sports, particularly baseball – known as sabermetrics – and cricket

Statistics form a key basis tool in business and manufacturing as well. It is used to understand
measurement systems variability, control processes (as in statistical process control or SPC), for
summarizing data, and to make data-driven decisions. In these roles, it is a key tool, and perhaps the
only reliable tool.

See also
Abundance estimation Glossary of probability and statistics
 List of academic statistical associations List of statistics articles
List of important publications in statistics List of university statistical consulting centers
List of national and international statistical Notation in probability and statistics
services Statistics education
List of statistical packages (software) World Statistics Day

Foundations and major areas of statistics

Foundations of statistics Official statistics

List of statisticians Multivariate analysis of variance

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0.1080%2F01621459.1938.10502344).
64. Freund, J.E. (1988). "Modern Elementary Statistics". Credo Reference.
65. Huff, Darrell; Irving Geis (1954). How to Lie with Statistics. New York: Norton. "The dependability
of a sample can be destroyed by [bias]... allow yourself some degree of skepticism."
66. Nelder, John A. (1999). "From Statistics to Statistical Science" (https://www.jstor.org/stable/268119
1). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series D (The Statistician). 48 (2): 257–269.
doi:10.1111/1467-9884.00187 (https://doi.org/10.1111%2F1467-9884.00187). ISSN 0039-0526 (htt
ps://www.worldcat.org/issn/0039-0526). JSTOR 2681191 (https://www.jstor.org/stable/2681191).
Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20220115160959/https://www.jstor.org/stable/2681191)
from the original on 2022-01-15. Retrieved 2022-01-15.
67. Nikoletseas, M.M. (2014) "Statistics: Concepts and Examples." ISBN 978-1500815684
68. Anderson, D.R.; Sweeney, D.J.; Williams, T.A. (1994) Introduction to Statistics: Concepts and
Applications, pp. 5–9. West Group. ISBN 978-0-314-03309-3
69. "Journal of Business & Economic Statistics" (https://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/jbes). Journal of
Business & Economic Statistics. Taylor & Francis. Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/2020072
7052958/https://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/jbes) from the original on 27 July 2020. Retrieved
16 March 2020.
70. Natalia Loaiza Velásquez, María Isabel González Lutz & Julián Monge-Nájera (2011). "Which
statistics should tropical biologists learn?" (https://investiga.uned.ac.cr/ecologiaurbana/wp-conten
t/uploads/sites/30/2017/09/JMN-2011-statistics-should-learn.pdf) (PDF). Revista Biología Tropical.
59: 983–992. Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20201019160957/https://investiga.uned.ac.cr/
ecologiaurbana/wp-content/uploads/sites/30/2017/09/JMN-2011-statistics-should-learn.pdf) (PDF)
from the original on 2020-10-19. Retrieved 2020-04-26.
71. Pekoz, Erol (2009). The Manager's Guide to Statistics. Erol Pekoz. ISBN 978-0979570438.
72. "Aims and scope" (https://amstat.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&jo
urnalCode=ubes20). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics. Taylor & Francis. Archived (http
s://web.archive.org/web/20210623194835/https://amstat.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformatio
n?show=aimsScope&journalCode=ubes20) from the original on 23 June 2021. Retrieved
16 March 2020.
73. "Journal of Business & Economic Statistics" (https://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/jbes). Journal of
Business & Economic Statistics. Taylor & Francis. Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/2020072
7052958/https://amstat.tandfonline.com/loi/jbes) from the original on 27 July 2020. Retrieved
16 March 2020.
74. Numerous texts are available, reflecting the scope and reach of the discipline in the business
world:
Sharpe, N. (2014). Business Statistics, Pearson. ISBN 978-0134705217
Wegner, T. (2010). Applied Business Statistics: Methods and Excel-Based Applications, Juta
Academic. ISBN 0702172863
Two open textbooks are:
Holmes, L., Illowsky, B., Dean, S. (2017). Introductory Business Statistics (https://open.umn.ed
u/opentextbooks/textbooks/509) Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20210616084059/http
s://open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/textbooks/509) 2021-06-16 at the Wayback Machine
Nica, M. (2013). Principles of Business Statistics (https://open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/textboo
ks/384) Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20210518151122/https://open.umn.edu/opentex
tbooks/textbooks/384) 2021-05-18 at the Wayback Machine
75. Cline, Graysen (2019). Nonparametric Statistical Methods Using R (https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/
1132348139). EDTECH. ISBN 978-1-83947-325-8. OCLC 1132348139 (https://www.worldcat.org/
oclc/1132348139). Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20220515012840/https://www.worldcat.o
rg/title/nonparametric-statistical-methods-using-r/oclc/1132348139) from the original on 2022-05-
15. Retrieved 2021-09-16.
76. Palacios, Bernardo; Rosario, Alfonso; Wilhelmus, Monica M.; Zetina, Sandra; Zenit, Roberto
(2019-10-30). "Pollock avoided hydrodynamic instabilities to paint with his dripping technique" (htt
ps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6821064). PLOS ONE. 14 (10): e0223706.
Bibcode:2019PLoSO..1423706P (https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2019PLoSO..1423706P).
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0223706 (https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0223706).
ISSN 1932-6203 (https://www.worldcat.org/issn/1932-6203). PMC 6821064 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.
nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6821064). PMID 31665191 (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3166519
1).

Further reading
Lydia Denworth, "A Significant Problem: Standard scientific methods are under fire. Will anything
change?", Scientific American, vol. 321, no. 4 (October 2019), pp. 62–67. "The use of p values for
nearly a century [since 1925] to determine statistical significance of experimental results has
contributed to an illusion of certainty and [to] reproducibility crises in many scientific fields. There
is growing determination to reform statistical analysis... Some [researchers] suggest changing
statistical methods, whereas others would do away with a threshold for defining "significant"
results." (p. 63.)
Barbara Illowsky; Susan Dean (2014). Introductory Statistics (https://openstax.org/details/introduct
ory-statistics). OpenStax CNX. ISBN 978-1938168208.
Stockburger, David W. "Introductory Statistics: Concepts, Models, and Applications" (https://web.a
rchive.org/web/20200528093101/http://psychstat3.missouristate.edu/Documents/IntroBook3/sbk.h
tm). Missouri State University (3rd Web ed.). Archived from the original (http://psychstat3.missouri
state.edu/Documents/IntroBook3/sbk.htm) on 28 May 2020.
OpenIntro Statistics (https://www.openintro.org/stat/textbook.php?stat_book=os) Archived (https://
web.archive.org/web/20190616110442/https://www.openintro.org/stat/textbook.php?stat_book=o
s) 2019-06-16 at the Wayback Machine, 3rd edition by Diez, Barr, and Cetinkaya-Rundel
Stephen Jones, 2010. Statistics in Psychology: Explanations without Equations (https://web.archiv
e.org/web/20170215092220/https://books.google.com/books?id=mywdBQAAQBAJ). Palgrave
Macmillan. ISBN 978-1137282392.
Cohen, J (1990). "Things I have learned (so far)" (https://web.archive.org/web/20171018181831/h
ttp://moityca.com.br/pdfs/Cohen_1990.pdf) (PDF). American Psychologist. 45 (12): 1304–1312.
 doi:10.1037/0003-066x.45.12.1304 (https://doi.org/10.1037%2F0003-066x.45.12.1304). Archived
from the original (http://moityca.com.br/pdfs/Cohen_1990.pdf) (PDF) on 2017-10-18.
Gigerenzer, G (2004). "Mindless statistics". Journal of Socio-Economics. 33 (5): 587–606.
doi:10.1016/j.socec.2004.09.033 (https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.socec.2004.09.033).
Ioannidis, J.P.A. (2005). "Why most published research findings are false" (https://www.ncbi.nlm.ni
h.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1855693). PLOS Medicine. 2 (4): 696–701.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040168 (https://doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.0040168).
PMC 1855693 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1855693). PMID 17456002 (https://
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17456002).

External links
(Electronic Version): TIBCO Software Inc. (2020). Data Science Textbook (https://docs.tibco.com/
data-science/textbook).
Online Statistics Education: An Interactive Multimedia Course of Study (http://onlinestatbook.com/i
ndex.html). Developed by Rice University (Lead Developer), University of Houston Clear Lake,
Tufts University, and National Science Foundation.
UCLA Statistical Computing Resources (https://web.archive.org/web/20060717201702/http://www.
ats.ucla.edu/stat/) (archived 17 July 2006)
Philosophy of Statistics (https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/statistics/) from the Stanford
Encyclopedia of Philosophy

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