Analysis of Vehicle Accident under Mixed Traffic Conditions

`
Arba Minch Institute of Technology
Department of Civil Engineering
Program: MSc in Road and Transportation Engineering

Research Proposal on

Analysis of Vehicle accident under Mixed Traffic Conditions

(A Case Study: Arba Minch Town)
Sponsored By: MOE (Ministry of Education)

 By: Fikedu Rage------------------PRAMIT1921/10

 Advisor’s Name: Dr. Habtamu Melesse (PhD, PE)

February, 2018
Arba Minch, Ethiopia

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Contents
ACRONYMS..........................................................................................III
CHAPTER ONE.......................................................................................1
1. Introduction..................................................................................1
1.2. Statement of Problem.....................................................................2
1.3 Objective.....................................................................................3
1.3.1 Specific objectives.....................................................................3
1.4 Significance of the Study...................................................................3
1.5 Scope..........................................................................................3
CHAPTER TWO.......................................................................................4
2.1 Literature review............................................................................4
CHAPTER THREE....................................................................................6
3.1 Methodology and Materials.................................................................6
3.2 Study Area....................................................................................7
3.3 Population and Sample.....................................................................9
3.4 Data source...................................................................................9
3.5 Procedures..................................................................................10
3.6 Data Collection Instrument...............................................................14
3.7 Procedure of Data Collection............................................................15
CHAPTER FOUR....................................................................................16
4.1 Analysis......................................................................................16
5. Anticipated Result.............................................................................20
Bibliography........................................................................................21

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Abstract

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ACRONYMS

AASHTO:-American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

ADT: -Average Daily Traffic

AMFx:-Accident Modification Factor for condition ‘x’

CI(y %):-The confidence interval for which it is y% probable that the true value of the
AMF is within the interval

CSA:-Central Statistical Agency

TA: -Traffic Accident

MSE:-Multiple of Standard Error

S.D:-standard deviation

SE x:-Standard Error of AMFx

TAR:-Traffic Accident Rate

WHO:-World Health Organization

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CHAPTER ONE

1. Introduction
In the world vehicle accident is serious problem. WHO report in 2015, More than 1.25
million people die each year as a result of road traffic accident. Road traffic injuries
are the leading cause of death among people aged between 15 and 29 years.90% of
the world's fatalities on the roads occur in low- and middle-income countries, even
though these countries have approximately 54% of the world's vehicles. Nearly half of
those dying on the world’s roads are “vulnerable road users”: pedestrians, cyclists,
and motorcyclists. Road traffic crashes cost most countries 3% of their gross domestic
product. Without sustained action, road traffic accidents are predicted to become the
seventh leading cause of death by 2030.The newly adopted 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development has set an ambitious target of halving the global number of
deaths and injuries from road traffic crashes by 2020.

In Ethiopia the very figurative that high life loss is occurred due to traffic accident.
According to the WHO, Ethiopia ranks first in the world with road fatalities rate per
vehicle; succeeding Uganda, which is the second highest one. Poor medical
emergency system and program of injury prevention are rarely available. Currently
1,800 Ethiopians are killed and 7,000 are injured due to road traffic accident.

As study was done by Dr. Raju Ramesh (Professor in ArbaMinch University, Department
of Civil Engineering) in 2017 road accident of Arba Minch town many of them are due
to Bajaj, Taxi and Two wheelers as compared to other types of vehicles Categories. As
per the data, out of total number of accidents, 21.42% of accidents are caused due to
the violation of traffic rules, 22.44% of accidents are due to unnecessary over takings,
13.26 % of accidents are due to pedestrian involvement, 8.16% of accidents are due to
vehicular defects, 7.14% of accidents are due to poor road geometrics, 4.08% of
accidents are due to environmental factors and the rest are due to some other
unknown factors. The property damage due to various accidents reveals that the
damage is increasing at a higher rate every year.

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1.2. Statement of Problem

In an ideal world, where there is no influencing parameters, the traffic accident

should be minimum/or no accident. No influence means: where road marking is
there, traffic rules and regulation are obeyed, traffic police is available, good road
conditions, terrain is flat and rolling type, fair driver license issuing, people are
literate, mandatory speed limit, using seat belt, helmet, no vehicle defects, good
climate and favorable environmental conditions and the like. But, traffic accident still
there in Arba Minch town due to influencing parameters.

Vehicle accident is principal issue which is to be considered when economy of one’s

country or town is rising and increasing in number of vehicle. Arba Minch town is one
of the towns which are under highly growing. This is due to high trip attractions to
tourism sites, production of different fruits and crops, increment of knowledge
centers /or sources like universities and colleges and other many positive changes.
Tourism sites in Arba Minch are: ‘NechSar’ park, crocodile production /or locally ‘Azo
Irbat’, forty spring or ’40 Minch, God’s bridge or ‘Ye Egzer Dildiy’ … etc. large hotels
are: tourist, paradise lodge, Bekele Mola and others. In parallel to this development
many traffic accidents (TA) are occurring in this town. It is necessary to model vehicle
traffic accident, in order to know the traffic accident trends and to predict traffic
accident intensity.

Even, many researches are done on this topic; still there are traffic accident
problems. TA problem is observed in this study area. Therefore researcher wants to
put his own part to minimize the gap of these ideal and actual conditions by modeling
Traffic accident under mixed traffic conditions in order to evaluate traffic accident
trends and to predict traffic accident intensity. At the same time, providing some
additional information to policy makers and new researchers is the other target of
this researcher.

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1.3 Objective
General Objective: The research is aimed to analyze Vehicle accidents in Arba Minch
town in order to search the way to reduce it.

1.3.1 Specific objectives

1) To study past and present road traffic accident trends to predict for the
future
2) To develop model which is used to minimize accident rate
3) To provide recommendation for policy makers based on the results obtained
in this study

1.4 Significance of the Study

The significance of this study is improving the economic development of the study
area by indicating the direction how to minimize vehicle accident; this indirectly
adds positive value on reduction of traffic accident of our country Ethiopia. The
beneficiaries of this study are vehicle users and passengers, owners of vehicles,
government organizations and non-government organizations, policy makers, the
coming new researchers and etc. The benefit of this study is maximization of the
reliability of traffic safety and minimization of vehicle accidents. Modeling of
traffic accident helps to understand the pattern of traffic accident on the given
route.

1.5 Scope

The extent of this study is analysis of vehicle accident in Arba Minch Town by
developing fitted regression model by considering influencing factors or dependent
variable (traffic accident).

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CHAPTER TWO

2.1 Literature review

This section contains previous document related to this study by other researchers.
Many researchers and scholars wrote about an accident. Although this paper includes
literatures which have some similarity with this study. The common models used by
many researchers for prediction accident Negative binomial, Poisson and Logit.

As Zewde Alemayew Berkessa (Lecturer in Wolayitta Sodo University) analyzed

Statistical Analysis of Traffic Injury Severity (The Case Study of Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia), multinomial Logit model was developed and it shows that driver related
variables (i.e. driver's age, driver's education, and driver's experience) were positively
associated with vehicle crash severity or injury severity. Significantly associated
parameters with dependent variables are Age of Drivers, Driver's Gender, and Driver’s
Education. Level, Driver's Experience, Vehicle Type, Vehicle Owner, Vehicle Defect,
Road Topography, Type of Road surface, Road Junction, Weather Condition, Time,
Pedestrian physical fitness and Month while non-significantly associated are Day,
Condition of Light and Type of Road Surface.

Fikadu Mekasha Admassie (June 2015) Investigated about Road Traffic accident
Causes and Control Mechanism in Addis Ababa City. The researcher tried to assess
road traffic accident causes and control mechanisms undertaken by authorities, in
Addis Ababa traffic police bureau and Addis Ababa Road Authority. Traffic accident
overall linkage with human security in Addis Ababa has been examined using mixed
methodological approach, i.e., qualitative and quantitative. As findings revealed,
combination of factors has immensely contributed to the incidence of road traffic
accident (RTAs) in Addis Ababa, such as human recklessness, vehicles defect, poor
road design and poor traffic regulation enforcement. The study found the
multifaceted effects of RTAs on the economy of households in particular and the
country in general, on the social interaction of victims and family.

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Factors that cause traffic accident

The major causes of traffic accidents are: road, the driver, the road user, vehicle,
and environmental factors. According to Ruman,K.(1985), studies from the American
and British reports; accidents occurred 57% due to driver factor, 27% due to combined
roadway and driver factor, 6% combined vehicles and deriver factor ,3% a combination
of the road, drivers, vehicles ,2% vehicle factor ,1% combined of vehicle and road user
factor. Road network in Africa is expanding fast, and similarly maintenance standards
are improved results the safe standard of the road.

Vehicles: Many of accident are occurred due to vehicles' malfunction of the braking
system, body, tire, improper inspection and maintenance. According to the TRL
conducted from 1968 to 1969, on the spot investigation of 274 accidents, vehicle
defects were found to have contributed to 18% of the accidents

Drivers: The driver's characteristics are important variables to be considered in the

analysis of traffic accidents. Since drivers have a major role in many accidents, the
driver is the key factor in most of the accidents and this is due to driver's judgment,
skill and emotional makeup, age, sex, marital status, training, use of alcohol and
drug, fatigue, use of crash helmets and safety belts, and speed

Roads: The road can bring immeasurable change in the accident (using properly
designed standard construction of the road with the correct specification, vertical
alignment, sight distance, supper elevation, carriageway width, width condition,
shoulder, road signs, and road markings, junctions' designs, pavement surfaces,
narrow bridges and culverts, median, width, and street lighting.

Environmental factors: Sometimes, environmental factors such as heavy rain, heavy

wind, also will lead to lot of confusion for the drivers and will lead to an accident.

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CHAPTER THREE

3.1 Methodology and Materials

This part shows the way how to arrive at the expected result of the objectives this
research (i.e. The researcher will attempts to model Multiple regression equation of
vehicle accident in Arba Minch Town, to evaluate the past and present traffic
accident trends, recommending policy makers and coming new researchers by
extracting from analysis of this study). And also it contains materials that will be used
for the study. To achieve intended purpose the following major procedures will be
followed.

Pre-Preparation to do study

Identifying what type of data will be required to this study

Collecting required data which will be used to attain aimed objectives

Organizing the collected according to their categories.

Analyzinng collected data according to the goal or objective

Interpret the output of the analysis result

Concluding and recommending

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3.2 Study Area

The study area of this research is Arba Minch Town; Which is located in south west of
Addis Ababa (capital city of Ethiopia) with driving distance of 450km. Geographical
location is latitude of 6° 1’ 59" and longitude of 37° 32’ 59". “Based on the 2007
Census conducted by the CSA, this town has a total population of 74,879, of whom
39,208 are men and 35,671 women. In the same year, around the town of Arba
Minch, in the Arba Minch District, there were 164,529 people, of whom 82,199 were
male and 82,330 were female. Arba Minch is known as a source for fruit, including
mango, banana, orange, apple, guava and pineapple, and is also known for its fish
farms.

SNNP Regional State

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Arba Minch Town

Figure1: Study Area Map

Source: (Internate, Google: Ethiopia Google Satellite Maps:Arba Minch' Map, 2018)

Data will be used

 Traffic accident data

 Traffic Volume
 Speed Data
 Driver behavior
 Pedestrians
 Road Condition
 Vehicle types
 Environmental Condition i.e. Temperature, rainfall records
 Road Infrastructure Like Parking, safety Control devices

Software’s will be used

1) SPSS
2) Excel
3) Math lab
4) Minitab

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3.3 Population and Sample
The entire population of this study is all vehicles which are found in Gamo Gofa zone
which use ArbaMinch town route. For the sake minimizing cost of research with repect
to time needed and birr paid for data collection, analysis sample selection is
efficient. The method that will be employed to select sample from population is
random selection

3.4 Data source

Both qualitative and quantitative data will be collected from primary and secondary
sources. Primary data will directly be recorded by researcher from study area.

Secondary data will be obtained from

 daily traffic police records(ArbaMinch Town Police Station)

 Hospitals(ArbaMinch Referral Hospital)
 Gamo Gofa Zone office of finance and economy, culture and tourism
 The town municipality
 Central Statistical Agency (CSA) reports
 Books on related issues
 Scientific journals
 Articles
 Magazines
 Reports from organizations, research papers,
 Web sites

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3.5 Procedures
♣ To study past and present road traffic accident trends

Collecting input data very critically

1

Collected data will be organized (i.e. re arranging an input data).

2

Traffic accidents due to different factors ,at different segment of the road
3 will be observed

Dividing study area road to small segment

4

The rate of traffic accident in each of selected year will be calculated and
5 their relationship will be observed.

In this step, it is possible to know increasing rate or decreasing rate of

6 traffic accident in consecutive years(Traffic Accident trends)

predict traffic accident intensity of the study area

7

Identification of the traffic accident intensity segment

8

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♣ To develop model used to minimize vehicle accident rate

Preparation

Collecting primary and secondary traffic accident data’s with their causative factors

Differentiate each traffic accident types with respect to each vehicle types and other
critical parameters

Identifying dependent(TA) and Independent or regressor variables

Model Building

Testing hypothesis

Validating

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Model Building: by applying some good regression modeling type (Multiple Regression
model may be used).In this step software SPSS, Math lab, Minitab will be used,

The fitted line of the collected data will use the following multiple regression
equation

Y 1=β o+ β 1 X 11+ β 2 X 12 …+ β kX 1k

Y 2=β o+ β 1 X 21+ β 2 X 22 …+ β kX 2 k

. . . . .

. . . . .

Yn=β o+ β 1 Xn1+ β 2 Xn2 …+ β kXnk

k
Generally can be written as Yi=β o+ ∑ β j Xij , i=1, 2… n………………………. (1)
j=1

Where: Yi is dependent variable (Traffic accident)

n= is number of observation

k= is number of factors or independent variables

 road condition
 Vehicle characteristic
 drivers defect
 Environmental factors etc
 Giving engineering interpretation on the output of analysis and why that result
is obtained
 Putting remark for next comer

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♣ Providing useful information for policy makers and researchers based on the
results obtained

Less traffic accident in one country or town is an indication of Good policy making and
the result of good research output fruit. Therefore providing useful information from
research output for policy makers and for new coming researchers, will implies the
way to minimize traffic accident one’s country or town.

Measures will be used to reduce accident rates by policy makers are may be:

 Engineering measures: performed by correcting the system with

engineering elements, such as correcting the condition of the vehicle in
terms of its braking system, lighting system, horn, engine, and also
correcting the condition of the road, arrangement of Street lights on
the road, etc. Applying this measure will be used to minimize accident
rate.
 Enforcement measures: performed by the Enforcement authorities i.e.
Traffic police by way of checking the licenses, by checking the
condition of the drivers whether they are taken alcohol or not, by
checking the condition of the vehicles on the road, etc. Applying this
measure will be used to reduce traffic accident
 Education measures: taken by educating the public about the
importance of following traffic rules, maintaining licenses, non-
violence in using signals, etc. Applying this measure reduce will be used
to minimize accident rate.

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3.6 Data Collection Instrument
Questionnaire is best instrument for primary data collection. Oral interviews are also
used as an instrument to collect data’s. Quantitative data will be collected from
Traffic police Records. Some of Interview question that will be used for this research
are the following:

1) How much accident occurred in Arba Minch Town per year?

 Fatal
 Injury
 Minor
 property damage
2) How many accidents occurred per year in Arba Minch Town due to factor of
 Vehicle defect
 Driver factor
 Environment
 Other

Table 1 Qualitative Data Format

Accident type Level of Accident

High Medium Low

Fatal

Injury

Minor(property
damage)

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3.7 Procedure of Data Collection

For the purpose of analyzing Traffic accident and suggesting countermeasures,

information is needed on crashes or accidents, and it is desired to relate crashes to
exposure. Some measure of traffic volumes is also necessary; therefore, the necessary
reliable data that were collected are accident data, road data, traffic data, and field
observations

 Before data collection preparation of data sheet, preparation of questionnaires

will be done for primary data collection.
 To collect secondary data related to accident from government offices or other
institution having formal letter which shows the (aim) for what purpose data is
needed
 Data will be collected either in soft copy or hardcopy.
 Collection and handling of data needs greater knowledge. Wrong data will
cause wrong conclusion. So that researcher will focus on accuracy of data.
Having number data and using high quality instrument will increase certainty.
Since it is expensive to use such combination, Optimum point where instrument
quality and number of data will give accurate result will be selected for this
study.

Asking Collection
Site questionn Organizing Presentin
drivers and Secondary
Visiting aires pedestrians data g data
data

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CHAPTER FOUR
4.1 Analysis

Raw data collected needs arrangement (organizing it in way that facilitating for
analysis). Data organizing mean summarizing data in form of tables, charts, pie charts
and graphs. After data organized in proper manner identifying the relationship
between each parameter both independent and dependent variable and independent
variables will be studied. Then data will be analyzed and statistical prediction
concept will be applied and reliability will be checked.

3.8.1 Evaluating the past and the present traffic accident trends to forecast for
the future

The data collected in the above methods is will be analyzed to evaluate accident rate
of the past and the present situations and Identifying segment which is more severed
by traffic accident

Accident analysis includes:

1) Fatalities: The major accident that occurs on the road such as death, heavy
property damage, head injury, heavy body injury, etc. comes under fatal
accident.
2) Injuries: The medium accident that occurs on the road such as Minor property
damage, Minor fractions, etc. comes under Minor accident.
3) Minor or properties damages: Small accidents that occur on the road such as
Minor damage to vehicle or body comes under Minor accident.
Indicator of Accident

Accident rate ( )
Acc
MV
=
Number of Accident ×106
ADT × Number of Year × 365
Day
… … …(2)
Year
6
Acc Number of Accident∗10
Accident rate ( )=
MVM Day …………
ADT × Number of Year ×365 ∗Length of Segment
Year
(3)

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Acc Number of Accident∗108
Accident rate ( )=
HMVM Day ………… (4)
ADT × Number of Year ×365 ∗Length of Segment
Year

3.8.2 Steps to develop model used to minimize accident rate

Examine descriptive statistics Number of accident

Step1

Check the normality assumption by examining histograms of the continuous

Step 2 variables

Check the linearity assumption by examining correlations between continuous

Step 3 vraiables

Conduct multiple linear regression analysis with dependent and independent

Step 4 variables

Run model
Step 5

Model check
Step 6

Check
 Examining co-linearity
 Examine residual plots to check error variance
 Examine influence diagnostics (residuals, to check for
outliers
 Examine significance of coefficient estimates to trim the
model
 Revise the model and rerun the analyses based on the
results of step
 Finally writing the final regression equation for vehicle crash in terms of the
predictor or repressor and interpret the coefficient estimates.

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Accident frequency will be calculated by using the following formula:

Number of Accident
Accident Frequency= ……………………………………………………………………..5
Period∈ years

Accident modification factor (AMF) will be use in order to predict the accident
condition of the study area.

Expected average Accident frequency with condition ' b '

AMF= ----------------------------------
Expected average accident frequency with condition ' a '
(6)

Where,

 AMF is Accident Modification factor

 Condition ‘b’ is the condition of site ‘b’
 Condition ‘a’ is condition of site ‘a’.

These condition ‘a’ and ‘b’ are different two conditions of sites to be expected for
vehicle crash frequency. [Source: Highway safety manual, (April 6, 2009: first
edition), page: 3-24].

Percent Reduction in Accident will be calculated by using the following formula:

% Reduction in Accident = 100(1-AMF) ----------------- ------------------ (7)

If AMF is:

 Equal to 1, % reduction in accident will have no change.

 Less than 1, implies reduction in expected Accident frequency
 Greater than 1, implies increased average Accident frequency
 Calibration Factor (C): “multiplied with the Accident frequency predicted by
the SPF to account for differences between the jurisdiction and time period
for which the predictive models were developed and the jurisdiction and time
period to which they are applied by HSM users”.

N ( predicted)=N SPF x ×( AMF 1 x × AMF 2 x × ...× AMF yx) ×C x ------- (7)

Where,

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N ( predicted)= predictive model estimate of Accident frequency for a specific year on
site type x accident/year)
NSPF x= predicted average Accident frequency determined for base conditions with
the Safety Performance Function representing site type x (accident /year)

AMFyx = Accident Modification Factors specific to site type x

Cx = Calibration Factor to adjust for local conditions for site type x.

[Source: Highway Safety Manual, (April 6, 2009: first edition), page: 3-25.]

Confidence Interval (CI)

This will be calculated by using the following formula:

CI ( y % )= AMF x+ SE x∗MSE ---------------- 8

Where,

CI ( y % ) = the confidence interval for which it is y-percent probable that the true
value of the AMF is within the interval

AMFx= Accident Modification Factor for condition x, SEx = Standard Error of the
AMFx ;

σ
SE x = , N is sample size. If N increases, standard error decreases. For infinite
√N
sample size SE is Zero. MSE = Multiple of Standard Error

Table 1: Constructing confidence interval using accident modifying factor standard

error

Desired Level of Confidence Interval Multiple of Standard

confidence (probability that the Error (MSF) to use in
true value is within the equation 7
estimated intervals)

Low 65-70% 1

Medium 95% 2

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High 99.9% 3

[Source: Highway Safety Manual, (First edition: April 6, 2009), page: 3-28 and C-29].

3.8.3 Providing useful information for policy makers and researchers based on the
results obtained in this stud

 Through observing the result of analysis the researcher may judge as

researcher and an Engineer on the given problem.
 This information will be used as an input for policy makers and coming new
researchers to base their work on proof.

Procedures will be followed:

1) Critically reviewing the analysis out put

2) Interpreting the result how it comes and what it shows
3) Putting in tabular or graphical form, this is why because graphs and tables are
more figurative than word expression.
4) Giving recommendation and comments

5. ANTICIPATED RESULT
The expected results from this study are:
♣ It is anticipated that engineering solution will be proposed to Minimize
vehicle accident, through Modeling of traffic accident
♣ Traffic accident trends of study area will be accessed
♣ Safety maximization through providing useful information for policy makers
and coming new researchers.

Ethical Consideration

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As researcher, vehicle accident will be reduced in acting accordingly with the
previous recommendation and the output interpretation of this study

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