A Short Introduction To Arbitrage Theory and Pricing in Mathematical Finance For Discrete-Time Markets With or Without Friction
A Short Introduction To Arbitrage Theory and Pricing in Mathematical Finance For Discrete-Time Markets With or Without Friction
The following lectures have been written for the workshop organized from
Monday the 22th to the 26th of April 2019 by the laboratory Latao of the
Faculty of Sciences of Tunis and by the reasearch group Gosaef which gathers
researchers working on order structures, mathematical finance and mathe-
matical economics. These notes are devoted to graduate students and any-
one who wants to be initiated to arbitrage theory. The author thanks the
organizers, in particular Amine Ben Amor for his hearty welcome.
1
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1.1. Introduction
(i) Ω, ∅ ∈ Ft ,
(ii) Ft ∈ Ft implies that Ftc := Ω \ Ft ∈ Ft , S
(iii) For all countable family (Ftn )n≥1 of Ft , n Ftn , n Ftn ∈ Ft .
T
Notice that (Ft )t=0,1,··· ,T is called a filtration in the sense that, for all t < u,
Ft ⊆ Fu . The σ-algebra Ft models the information available at time t.
Example Let us consider a financial market composed of d exchangeable
assets whose prices are given at time t by the vector St = (St1 , · · · , Std ). We
define
Ft = σ (Su : u ≤ t) , t ≥ 0,
as the smallest σ-algebra making the mappings Su : ω 7→ Su (ω), u ≤ t,
measurable with respect to Ft . Such a σ-algebra exists as an intersection
of any family of σ-algebras is a σ-algebra. We may verify that (Ft )t≥0 is a
filtration.
In finance, we generally suppose that the filtration (Ft )t≥0 is complete,
i.e. F0 contains the negligible sets for P . Actually, the classical case is to
consider F0 as the smallest σ-algebra containing the negligible sets. We may
show that X0 is F0 -measurable if and only if there exists a constant c such
that P (X = c) = 1, i.e. X = c a.s. (almost surely).
The family of random variables (Xt )t≥0 is said to be a stochastic pro-
cess adapted to the filtration (Ft )t≥0 if, for all t ≥ 0, Xt : Ω → Rd is
Ft -measurable. This means that, for all B in the Borel σ-algebra B(Rd ),
Xt−1 (B) ∈ Ft . Notice that, if Ft is the information available at time t on the
market, the Ft -measurability means that Xt is observed at time t.
/ 3
where (Gt )t=1,··· ,T is a family of i.i.d. random variables with common distri-
bution N (0, 1) and σ, µ are two constants. This means that the returns are
normally distributed. Notice that when σ = 0, S is deterministic, i.e. is not
risky.
Remark 1.1. There exists a continuous version of the model. The non risky
asset satisfies the continous time dynamics
The solution is given by St0 = ert as it is the solution of the o.d.e. (St0 )0 =
dSt0
dt
= rSt0 . Notice that
0
St+dt − St0
r = lim /dt.
dt→0 St0
This means that r is interpreted as an instantaneous interest rate.
/ 4
The risky asset is given by the Black and Scholes model, i.e. the price S
follows the dynamics:
dSt = µSt dt + σSt dWt , S0 is given.
The stochastic process W is supposed to be a (standard) Brownian motion,
i.e. W satisfies the following conditions:
1 For all t, Wt is Ft -measurable and W0 = 0.
2 With probability 1, the trajectories t 7→ Wt (ω), ω ∈ Ω, are continuous.
3 For all u < t, Wt − Wu is independent of Fu .
4 If t4 − t3 = t2 − t1 , then Wt4 − Wt3 and Wt2 − Wt1 are equally distributed
as N (0, t4 − t3 ) 1 .
Let us interpret the dynamics of (St )t∈[0,T ] . We introduce the discrete dates
tni = Tn i, i = 0, 1, · · · , n. We have ∆tni := tni − tni−1 = T /n. As n → ∞,
∆Stni+1 := Stni+1 − Stni ' µStni ∆tni + σStni ∆Wtni+1 , i ≥ 1,
p
where ∆Wti = T /n Gi with (Gi )i=1,··· ,n a family of i.i.d. random variables
with common distribution N (0, 1). This property is directly deduced from the
definition of W . Notice that, when σ = 0, St = S0 eµt is deterministic, i.e.
it is non risky. If σ > 0, the Black and Scholes model supposes that the
log-returns log(Stni+1 /Stni ) are normally distributed. Indeed, we may show that
σ∆W
t n +(µ−σ 2 /2)∆tn
i+1
Stni+1 = Stni e i+1 . The coefficient σ is called the volatility. The
larger σ is, the further could be St from the deterministic trajectory S0 eµt .
Actually, we may show that E(St ) = S0 eµt , t ≥ 0.
For readers interested in stochastic calculus, very good notes by Jeanblanc
M. are available in french [13] but also by Lamberton D. and Lapeyre B. in
english [19].
( T )
X
RT0 = θt−1 · ∆S̃t : θt ∈ L0 (R, Ft ), t = 0, · · · , T − 1 .
t=1
As E(Z(ξ˜T − p∗0 )) > 0, we may choose β > 0 large enough in such a way
that E(ρ(ξ˜T − p∗0 )) > 0. We then fix α such that ρ > 0 defines an equivalent
probability measure Q ∼ P with dQ/dP = ρ. Moreover, by construction,
EQ (S̃1 ) = 0, i.e. Q ∈ EM M . It follows that p∗0 ≥ EQ (ξ˜T ). On the other
hand, EQ (ξ˜T ) > p∗0 by construction hence a contradiction. 2
A natural question is whether EMM is a singleton. This is related to the
concept of completeness for the market.
Definition 1.13. We say that the financial market is complete if for any
ξT ∈ L1 (R, FT ), there exists a self-financing portfolio process V such that
VT = ξT .
Proposition 1.14. Let T = 1. Suppose that NA holds. Then, the market is
complete if and only if EMM is a singleton.
Proof. Suppose that the market is complete. Let Q1 , Q2 ∈ EM M . Consider
A ∈ F1 . The payoff ξT = 1A is replicable by assumption, i.e. there exists a self-
financing portfolio process V such that VT = 1A . We have ṼT = V0 +θ0 ∆S̃1 for
some θ0 ∈ R, hence EQ1 ṼT = EQ2 ṼT = V0 . This implies that Q1 (A) = Q2 (A),
for all A, i.e. Q1 = Q2 .
Reciprocally, if EM M = {Q}, we know by Theorem 1.12, that p∗0 = EQ (ξ˜1 )
is a super-replication price, i.e. there exists a portfolio process V such that
Ṽ1 ≥ ξ˜1 . This means that ξ˜1 = p∗0 + θ0 S̃1 − + + 0
1 where 1 ∈ L (R+ , F1 ). We
deduce that EQ (ξ˜1 ) = p0 − EQ (1 ) hence EQ (1 ) = 0 and +
∗ + +
1 = 0. This
˜
implies that ξ1 is replicable. 2
Definition 1.15. Let Q ∼ P . We say that the stochastic process (Mt )t=0,··· ,T
is a Q-martingale if, for all t = 0, · · · , T , Mt is Q-integrable (EQ |Mt | < ∞)
and EQ (Mt+1 |Ft ) = Mt .
We shall need a generalized version of the conditional expectation which
allows to consider conditional expectation of non integrable random variables.
Recall that the conditional expectation of any non negative random variable
X exists and is defined as E(|X||G) = limn ↑ E(|X| ∧ n|G) where |X| ∧ n ∈
[0, n], n ≥ 1, is integrable.
Definition 1.16. Let G ⊆ F be two σ-algebras and X ∈ L0 (Rd , F), d ≥ 1.
We say that X admits a conditional expectation E(X|G) if E(|X||G) < ∞
a.s. In that case, we define
E(X|G) = E(X + |G) − E(X − |G) ∈ L0 (Rd , G).
We may show the following:
Lemma 1.17. Let XG ∈ L0 (Rd , G) and suppose that Y ∈ L0 (Rd , F) admits a
conditional expectation E(Y |G). Then, XG Y admits a conditional expectation
such that E(XG Y |G) = XG E(Y |G).
Proposition 1.18. Suppose that NA holds. Then, AT0 is closed in L0 .
Proof. We show the statement by induction. For two dates, let us consider
X = θTn −1 S̃T −n+
n T
T ∈ AT −1 converging a.s. to X as n → ∞. We suppose that
θT −1 ∈ L (R , FT −1 ) and n+
n 0 d 0
T ∈ L (R+ , FT ). We split Ω into two subsets:
Let us restrict ourselves to the case d = 1. We shall see the general case
below. As θ̄T −1 ∈ {−1, 1}, we get that ∆S̃T = 0 hence X n ≤ 0 and X ≤ 0.
Therefore, X1ΩcT −1 ∈ ATT −1 . We conclude that X = X1ΩT −1 +X1ΩcT −1 ∈ ATT −1 .
Suppose by induction that ATt is closed and let us show that ATt−1 is also
closed. To do so, consider a converging sequence X n = θt−1 n
∆S̃t + · · · +
n n+
θT −1 ∆S̃T − T → X.
n
c) On the set Ωt−1 = {lim inf n |θt−1 | < ∞} ∈ Ft−1 , we may suppose
w.l.o.g. (see the first step a)) that θt−1 → θt−1 ∈ L0 (Rd , Ft−1 ). Therefore,
n
X n = X n − θt−1
n
γt−1 = θtn ∆S̃t+1 + · · · + θTn −1 ∆S̃T − n+ T
T ∈ At .
We may also introduce the largest sub-hedging price p for ξT , i.e. the
largest price p such that p + VT ≤ ξT a.s. for some self-financing portfo-
lio process V . By symmetry, we have p = inf Q∈EM M EQ (ξ˜T ). Now, consider
an extended market model where the payoff ξT is quoted at price p(ξT ) at
time 0 and is available only at timePT at the price ξT . Therefore, a termi-
nal discounted claim is of the form Tt=1 θt−1 ∆S̃t + θ0 (ξ˜T − p(ξT )). Suppose
that there exists an arbitrage opportunity for this extended market. In par-
ticular, for some strategy (θ, θ0 ), Tt=1 θt−1 ∆S̃t + θ00 (ξ˜T − p(ξT )) ≥ 0 a.s. If
P
θ00 = 0, we get an arbitrage opportunity for the initial market contrarily to
the assumption. If θ00 > 0, divide by θ0 and take the expectation for any
Q ∈ EM M . We get that p(ξT ) ≤ EQ (ξ˜T ) hence p(ξT ) ≤ inf Q∈EM M EQ (ξ˜T ).
0 ˜
if θ0 < 0, we get that p(ξT ) ≥ sup
Otherwise, Q∈EM M EQ (ξT ). Therefore,
p(ξT ) ∈ inf Q∈EM M EQ (ξ˜T ), sup Q∈EM M EQ (ξ˜T ) implies that there is no ar-
bitrage opportunity.
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2.1. Introduction
The theory we present in this section is rather recent. Most of the main results
of the literature have been developed in the last fifteen years. A pioneering
work is the paper by Jouini and Kallal [14] where bid and ask prices are
considered. We propose in this section an introduction to financial market
models with proportional transaction costs. In the following, we consider a
discrete-time stochastic basis (Ω, (Ft )t=0,1,··· ,T , P ). We denote by e1 the vector
of Rd , d ≥ 1, such that the only non null component is the first one which is
fixed to 1.
Example. Suppose that the market is composed of two assets. The first
one is non risky and its (discounted) value is St0 = 1 for all t ∈ [0, T ]. The
second asset is risky and the price is St at time t. As usual, we suppose
that S is a stochastic process adapted to the filtration. We suppose that we
need to pay proportional transaction costs when buying or selling the risky
asset. Precisely, when buying one unit of the risky asset, we pay the price
St (1 + ) = St + St . When selling one unit of the risky asset, we get the price
St (1 − ) = St − St . This means that the proportional transaction cost rate
is > 0.
In this setting, we denote by V a portfolio process. Contrarily to the fric-
tionless model, V is expressed in physical units, i.e. V is the strategy θ̂ of
the last section. This choice is motivated by technical reasons: the dynamics
of a portfolio process is not trivial with transaction costs. In the sequel, a
financial position (x, y) describes the quantity x ∈ R and y ∈ R invested in
assets S 0 and S respectively.
Definition 2.1. The liquidation value at time t of the financial position (x, y)
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is
Lt ((x, y)) := x + y + St (1 − ) − y − St (1 + ).
This definition is clear. If y > 0, we liquidate the long position by selling
the y units of risky asset at price St (1 − ). If y < 0, we liquidate the short
position by buying the y − units of risky asset at price St (1 + ). Notice that
L is linear only in the first component. This linearity is used afterwards.
Definition 2.2. At time t, the solvency set is defined as
Gt (ω) := {z = (x, y) ∈ R2 : Lt (z) ≥ 0}.
Gt is the set of all positions we may liquidate without any debt. Indeed, if
z ∈ Gt , write z = z − Lt (z)e1 + Lt (z)e1 and observe that Lt (z − Lt (z)e1 ) = 0.
We may easily show that Gt is a closed convex cone. For y ≥ 0, z = (x, y) ∈
Gt if and only if x + ySt (1 − ) ≥ 0, i.e. zgt2∗ ≥ 0 where gt2∗ = (1, ySt (1 − )).
For y < 0, z = (x, y) ∈ Gt if and only if x + ySt (1 + ) ≥ 0, i.e. zgt1∗ ≥ 0
where gt1∗ = (1, ySt (1 + )). The vectors gt1∗ and gt2∗ are the generators of the
positive dual cone
G∗t = {z ∈ R2 : zgt ≥ 0, ∀gt ∈ Gt } = cone (gt1∗ , gt2∗ ).
Lemma 2.3. The solvency set is Ft -graph-measurable at time t:
graph Gt := {(ω, z) ∈ Ω × Rd : z ∈ Gt (ω)} ∈ Ft ⊗ B(Rd ).
Proof. It suffices to observe that (ω, z) ∈ graph (Gt ) if and only if zgt1∗ ≥ 0
and zgt2∗ ≥ 0. 2
Similarly, we have Gt = cone (gt1 , gt2 ), where gt1 = (St (1 + ), −1) and
gt2 = (−St (1 − ), 1). Therefore, G∗t is Ft -graph-measurable at time t since
(G∗t )∗ = Gt .
Proposition 2.4. For all z ∈ R2 ,
Lt (z) = max{α ∈ R : z − αe1 ∈ Gt }.
Proof. Consider α ∈ R such that z − αe1 ∈ Gt . Then, Lt (z − αe1 ) ≥ 0, i.e.
Lt (z) − α ≥ 0 hence α ≤ Lt (z). Moreover, Lt (z − Lt (z)e1 ) = 0 implies that
z − Lt (z)e1 ∈ Gt . The conclusion follows. 2
Definition 2.5. A self-financing portfolio process is a stochastic process
(Vt )t=0,··· ,T starting from an initial endowment V−1 = V0− such that, for all
t ≥ 0, ∆Vt ∈ −Gt a.s.
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We suppose that the prices are non negative. Therefore, R2+ ⊆ Gt a.s. hence
−L0 (R2+ , FT ) ⊆ AT0 .
Definition 2.6. NAw : AT0 ∩ L0 (R2+ , FT ) = {0}.
Proposition 2.7. Suppose that ST > 0 a.s. and < 1. The condition NAw
holds if and only if, for all VT ∈ AT0 , LT (VT ) ≥ 0 implies that LT (VT ) = 0
a.s.
Proof. Suppose that NAw holds and consider VT ∈ AT0 such that LT (VT ) ≥
0. Since VT −LT (VT )e1 ∈ GT and GT is stable under addition, we deduce that
LT (VT )e1 = VT − (VT − LT (VT )e1 ) ∈ AT0 ∩ L0 (R2+ , FT ) = {0}, i.e. LT (VT ) = 0
a.s. Reciprocally, consider VT ∈ AT0 ∩ L0 (R2+ , FT ). Necessarily, LT (VT ) ≥ 0
hence LT (VT ) = 0. As VT ∈ R2+ , we have 0 = LT (VT ) = VT1 + VT2 ST (1 − ). It
follows that VT1 = VT2 = 0. 2
Clearly, the meaning of NAw is the same than the NA condition of the
frictionless case. In general, we shall see that stronger conditions are con-
sidered in presence of transaction costs to ensure the closedness of AT0 . In
the following, we introduce the stochastic preorder x ≥Gt y if and only if
x − y ∈ Gt , t = 0, · · · , T .
Definition 2.8. An endowment for the payoff ξT ∈ L0 (R2 , FT ) is a vector
p0 ∈ R2 which is the initial capital of a self-financing portfolio V such that
VT ≥GT ξT a.s.
Notice that p0 ∈ R2 is an endowment if p0 − Tt=1 gt = ξT + gT0 for some
P
gt ∈ L0 (Gt , Ft ), t ≤ T and gT0 ∈ L0 (GT , FT ). As GT is a convex cone, we
get that p0 + VT = ξT where VT ∈ AT0 . As in the frictionless case, let us see
whether AT0 may be closed. Let us start with T = 1.
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Z0 = E(Z1 ).
Reciprocally, suppose the existence of Z and consider V1 = −g0 − g1 ∈
A10 ∩ L1 (R2+ , F1 ). Then Z1 V1 ≥ 0 and Z1 V1 = 0 if and only if V1 = 0 as
Z1 ∈ G∗1 ⊆ int R2+ . On the other hand, E(Z1 V1 ) = −g0 Z0 − E(g1 Z1 ) ≤ 0 by
assumption. Therefore, Z1 V1 = 0 and V1 = 0. 2
Definition 2.11. A consistent price system (CPS) is a P -martingale (Zt )t=0,··· ,T
adapted to the filtration (Ft )t=0,··· ,T such that Zt ∈ G∗t \ {0} a.s. for all
t = 0, · · · , T .
The following theorem (see [9]) is a generalization of Theorem 2.10 for
d = 2, see [15, Theorem 3.2.15, Section 3].
Theorem 2.12 (Grigoriev’s theorem). Suppose d = 2 and T is arbitrarily
chosen. The following statements are equivalent:
1) NAw .
2) AT0 ∩ L1 (R2+ , F1 ) = {0}.
3) There exists a CPS.
In [15, Section 3], some counterexamples show that AT0 is not necessarily
closed under NAw . In that case, it is not possible a priori to characterize the
set of all super-hedging prices of a payoff.
Proposition 2.13. Suppose that NAw holds and AT0 is closed. Consider a
payoff ξT ∈ L1 (Rd , FT ). Then, the set of all super-replicating prices Γ(ξT ) of
ξT is given by
Γ(ξT ) = x0 ∈ Rd : x0 Z0 ≥ E(ZT ξT ), ∀Z CPS in L∞ .
Proof. Let us consider x0 ∈P Γ(ξT ), i.e. there exists VT ∈ AT0 such that
x0 + VT = ξT . We have Vt = − tu=0 gu where gu ∈ L0 (Gu , Fu ), u = 0, · · · , t
and t ≤ T . We have ZT ξT = ZT (x0 + VT ) = ZT (x0 + VT −1 − gT ). As ZT ∈ G∗T ,
we deduce that ZT ξT ≤ ZT (x0 + VT −1 ) hence, considering the generalized
conditional expectation, we get that
E(ZT ξT |FT −1 ) ≤ ZT −1 (x0 +VT −1 ) = ZT −1 (x0 +VT −2 −gT −1 ) ≤ ZT −1 (x0 +VT −2 ).
Repeating the reasonning, i.e. take the successive generalized conditional
expectations, we finally get that E(ZT ξT ) ≤ Z0 x0 .
Reciprocally, consider x0 ∈ Rd such that E(ZT ξT ) ≤ Z0 x0 for all CPS Z.
Suppose by contradiction that ξT − x0 ∈ / AT0 ∩ L1 (Rd , FT ). By the Hahn-
Banach separation theorem, there exists Ẑ ∈ L∞ (Rd , FT ) and c ∈ R such
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that
E(ẐX) < c < E(Ẑ(ξT − x0 )), ∀CPS Z.
As AT0 is a cone, we deduce that E(ẐX) ≤ 0 for all X ∈ AT0 and c > 0. With
X = −gt ∈ L0 (−Gt , Ft ) ⊆ AT0 , we have E(Ẑt gt ) ≥ 0 for any gt ∈ L0 (Gt , Ft ),
where Ẑt = E(Ẑ|Ft ). Arguing by contradiction with a measurable selection
argument, see [15, Theorem 5.4.1, Section 5.4], we deduce that Ẑt ∈ G∗t a.s.
Let us define Zt = αZ̄t + Ẑt where Z is a CPS. By construction Z is a CPS
if α > 0. Moreover, with α small enough, we get that E(Ẑ(ξT − x0 )) > 0 in
contradiction with the property satisfied by x0 . 2
In the literature, a stronger no-arbitrage condition NAr has been intro-
duced. This condition means that there is no arbitrage opportunity even if
the transaction costs are slightly smaller. Equivalently, this means that there
is no arbitrage opportunity when the solvency set is larger, i.e. the positive
dual is smaller. A CPS for this enlarged market is therefore in the interior of
the initial positive dual. This ensures the closedness of AT0 , see [15, Section
3.2.2], so that Proposition 2.13 applies. This condition NAr appears to be
crucial to derive a FTAP as in the papers [2], [20] and [8] among others.
In the last section, we have seen that the set of all terminal claims AT0
is not necessarily closed under NAw . A natural question is to understand
whether this is the case for the liquidation values of these terminal claims.
We consider here the case d = 2. The first asset is riskless and defined by
the price St0 = 1, t = 0, · · · , T . The risky asset is defined by the bid and ask
prices Stb and Sta such that 0 < Stb ≤ Sta , t = 0, · · · , T . At time t, Stb and Sta
are respectively the prices we get when selling/buying one unit of the risky
asset. That corresponds to the best bid/ask prices in an order book. The
liquidation value process is then:
Lt ((x, y)) = x + y + Stb − y − Sta , t = 0, · · · , T.
We then define Gt := {z ∈ R2 : Lt (z) ≥ 0} as in the last section. Similarly,
we define
t
X
Atu : = L0 (−Gr , Fr ),
r=u
Ltu : = {Lt (Vt ) : Vt ∈ Atu } 0 ≤ u ≤ t ≤ T.
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gr ∈ L0 (Gr , Fr ), r P
≤ T . When considering a sequence of such elements, we
write them gut,n = tr=u grn with grn ∈ L0 (Gr , Fr ). In the following, we may
suppose w.l.o.g. that gr ∈ ∂Gt := Gt \ intGt for all t ≤ T − 1. To do so,
we withdraw Lr (gr ) ≥ 0 from gr that we add to GT . Recall that, by the
Grigoriev theorem, there exists a CPS Z.
/ 21
All the arguments we have used in the previous sections are possible because
the solvency sets are closed convex sets. This allows to deduce a dual charac-
terization of no-arbitrage conditions and super-hedging prices. In particular,
AT0 is a closed convex cone. Clearly, this classical principle in mathematical
finance is no more valid if G is not convex. In the following, we present a
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Notice that p0 ∈ Γ(h) if and only if p0 ≥ p0 (g0 ) = ess supF0 (h(S1 ) − L1 (−g0 )),
where the notion of essential supremum is given in [15, Section 5.3.1]. More-
over, Γ(h) is an interval. Our goal is to determine inf Γ(h). By [1, Proposition
2.13], we have
p0 (g0 ) = sup g(g0 , s), g0 ∈ G0 ,
s∈supp (S1 )
Therefore,
When computing p∗0 , we obtain the argmin y0 and x0 = δ(y0 ) such that
g0 = (x0 , y0 ). For instance, with c = 1.5, = 5% and K = 50, we get
that g0 = (64.05, −0.61) and p∗0 = 74. With c = = 0 and K = 50, we
get g0 = (56.99, −0.5699) and p∗0 = 65.27. In Table 2.3, minimal prices are
computed.
3. Conclusion
We have discovered the main arguments and tools allowing to characterize no-
arbitrage conditions and then deduce dual characterizations of super-hedging
prices. It was possible to do it because the set of terminal claims is a closed
convex cone under N A or other stronger condition. In practice, the transac-
tion costs are not necessarily linear so that the solvency set G is not a cone.
Then, new approaches need to be invented. One of them could be to use
the natural stochastic preorder generated by G, i.e. x ≥Gt y if and only if
x − y ∈ Gt , see [28] and [29]. We also presented a new approach that should
be generalized.
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Fig 1. The price function y0 7→ p0 (δ(y0 ), y0 ) for y0 ∈ [−1, 1]. The parameters are c = 1.5,
K = 50, = 5%.
References