MercadoLibre BoA
MercadoLibre BoA
Raising MELI price objective from $800 to $1,100 09 June 2020 Corrected
We are raising our 12-month price objective on Mercadolibre (MELI) from $800 to R$1,100 Equity
on accelerating growth. We are also raising our projected 5-year CAGRs for gross
merchandise value (GMV) and total payments value (TPV) from 25%/54% to 36%/64%. Our Key Changes
price objective is based on a 2021E EV/GMV multiple of 1.4x (up from 1.0x to reflect
(US$) Previous Current
higher growth expectations) and EV/TPV of 0.3x (unchanged), in line with regional peers
Price Obj. 800.00 1,100.00
but a premium to international benchmarks, due to low Latam penetration rates and faster
2020E Rev (m) 3,173.2 3,288.7
growth. Multiple data sources indicate material regional eCommerce acceleration (see
2021E Rev (m) 4,444.1 4,860.0
Charts 1-3), and we think MELI improvements in pricing, assortments, and service could
2022E Rev (m) 6,527.5 7,627.9
contribute to strength vs prior run rates. We also look for an eventual reacceleration of off-
2020E EPS -1.23 -0.95
platform TPV as MELI optimizes loyalty incentives and consumers gravitate toward
2021E EPS 0.21 0.27
contactless payments. We adjust our estimates and reiterate our Buy rating.
Growth and adoption rates should prove sticky Robert E. Ford Aguilar, CFA
Research Analyst
While some expect a channel reversion to physical retail as malls and stores re-open, we BofAS
+1 646 855 5439
think behaviors are likely to prove sticky. Transmission concern is expected to extend [email protected]
self-isolation, particularly among more affluent consumers, galvanizing habits. We also Melissa Byun, CFA
argue that strong and rapidly improving assortments, pricing and service levels should Research Analyst
BofAS
further fuel an irreversible trend toward eCommerce. MELI is also aggressively extending +1 646 855 3177
[email protected]
logistics and distribution infrastructure, scaling in consumables, sharpening pricing, and
adding thousands of new sellers and cross border offerings. Vinicius Strano, CFA >>
Research Analyst
Merrill Lynch (Brazil)
Latam eCommerce growth likely to exceed other regions +55 11 2188 4541
[email protected]
Latin American eCommerce penetration lags most benchmarks (see Chart 7), enabling it
to grow at higher rates for longer, in our view. Platform improvements are also highly
symbiotic, contributing to relative appeal and adoption. Leading regional retail
Stock Data
incumbents may have also widely under-prioritized eCommerce, and many have
excessive debt, as consumer credit and mall portfolios come under pressure, limiting Price 858.86 USD
ability to defend franchises or more aggressively invest in omni-channel capabilities.
Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited. This report is intended for [email protected] C
>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under
the FINRA rules.
Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take
responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.
BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As
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Refer to important disclosures on page 10 to 12. Analyst Certification on page 8. Price
Objective Basis/Risk on page 8. 12152005
Chart 1: eCommerce in Brazil may have doubled in May… Chart 2: … Argentina also appears to be accelerating
126.9% 111%
84%
81.6%
26.7%
18.4%
Note: May figures through May 24th. Figures exclude MELI Source: Cámara Argentina de Comercio Electrónico, Kantar
Source: Compre & Confie
Chart 3: Adyen processed transaction volumes in Mexican eCommerce were up over 4x in late May
Weekly Processed Volume Growth
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
1-Jan 15-Jan 29-Jan 12-Feb 26-Feb 11-Mar 25-Mar 8-Apr 22-Apr 6-May 20-May
Source: Adyen
24.3
17.4
+15.0% y/y 12.4
11.1 +72.6% y/y
6.6 7.6 7.0
4.4 4.1
2.7 2.4
2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q19 1Q20 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q19 1Q20
Source: Company financials, BofA Global Research *Includes marketplace commissions; Netshoes consolidated in June 2019
Source: Company financials, BofA Global Research
18.8
15.0
12.5 12.8
+27.3% y/y
3.6 4.6
125%
119%
112%
52%
47%
39%
(1) The current environment is driving new buyers, new sellers and greater
frequency to MELI’s platform. And, an extended outlook for social spacing and
self-isolation is likely to galvanize eCommerce habits, as MELI continues to
improve value propositions, relevance and experiences.
(2) About one-third of MELI’s GMV is estimated to come from auto parts and
apparel, which contracted in March, and are now gradually recovering from
trough levels. As behavior increasingly normalizes, we look for auto parts and
apparel to behave in line with aggregated BAC credit and debit card data
(Exhibit 2), and ultimately converge with wider averages.
(3) MELI pricing had lost competitiveness in several key categories, and we expect
sharper 1P offerings, category-specific take rates, and the introduction of a
buy-box or MELI choice label to improve overall pricing, while enriching
assortment.
(4) MELI’s hybrid move into high-velocity, shelf-stable consumables more than
doubles its total addressable market, while ensuring competitive pricing, in our
view. The move had been planned for 2H20, but was pulled forward as the
impact of COVID-19 became apparent. While early, we look for offerings to
further improve in terms of breadth and overall value. We also look for
consumables to help further improve delivery densities and lower last mile
costs.
(5) In 1Q20, an estimated 25% of MELI shipments were made via its private
logistics and shipping stack with delivery times of 2 days or less. We look for
the addition of new distribution centers, cross docking facilities and smaller
shipping nodes to expand 1-2 day fulfillment to about 70% of GMV within 2-3
years, driving further material improvements in service levels and conversion.
1.6%
Exhibit 1: We think US eCommerce card data reflects Latam consumption patterns, and could explain some of MELI’s relative weakness given its strength in
apparel and auto parts
Best Performers Worst Performers
Restaurant / Sports Home Sporting eCommerce Clothing, Department Clothing, ex- Health & Autoparts &
Grocery Electronics
Food Delivery Apparel Furnishings Goods Overall Total Stores Sports Personal Care Services
y/y Growth
January 19% 40% 14% -4% 29% 5% 13.3% 7% 16% 8% 6% 8%
February 25% 43% 18% -3% 35% 9% 17.4% 10% 15% 11% 9% 11%
March 56% 38% 35% -18% 32% 39% 24.4% -6% 8% 2% 18% -4%
April 184% 108% 98% 33% 86% 100% 73.0% 40% 54% 41% 64% 17%
May 167% 140% 126% 124% 99% 90% 82.5% 65% 61% 61% 56% 28%
Week ending:
3/24/2020 60% 39% 52% -33% 27% 79% 25.1% -19% 6% -12% 27% -14%
3/31/2020 87% 60% 53% -28% 35% 70% 32.2% -10% 12% -2% 25% -15%
4/7/2020 140% 77% 60% -28% 40% 56% 44.4% 3% 14% 6% 27% -8%
4/14/2020 156% 89% 45% 0% 44% 55% 45.0% 8% 15% 9% 36% -9%
4/16 & 4/15 191% 123% 155% 21% 88% 112% 81.5% 49% 68% 52% 70% 30%
4/23/2020 185% 133% 138% 67% 100% 124% 84.2% 51% 74% 50% 89% 23%
4/30/2020 182% 125% 126% 70% 90% 114% 79.0% 51% 58% 49% 46% 19%
5/7/2020 171% 128% 115% 122% 92% 100% 81.4% 63% 68% 58% 30% 24%
5/16/2020 155% 142% 124% 136% 88% 88% 79.4% 64% 63% 60% 60% 26%
5/23/2020 170% 136% 135% 127% 113% 88% 84.6% 70% 57% 66% 80% 30%
5/29/2020 163% 146% 129% 108% 107% 81% 84.7% 65% 49% 61% 75% 33%
Chg. In Growth
Wk of 5/16 vs. 5/7 -7% 10% -5% -19% -6% -7% 0.1% -6% -7% -5% -6% 3%
May vs. April -17% 32% 28% 91% 13% -10% 9.6% 25% 7% 20% -7% 11%
Source: BAC Internal Data
80,000 40,000
20,000
70,000 35,000
60,000 30,000
15,000
50,000 25,000
40,000 20,000
10,000
30,000 15,000
20,000 10,000 5,000
10,000 5,000
0 0 0
6-Feb
18-Feb
6-Feb
18-Feb
2-Mar
1-May
13-May
25-May
6-Jun
2-Mar
1-May
14-Mar
26-Mar
7-Apr
13-May
25-May
6-Jun
1-Jan
13-Jan
25-Jan
19-Apr
1-Jan
14-Mar
26-Mar
7-Apr
13-Jan
25-Jan
19-Apr
13-Jan
25-Jan
18-Feb
19-Apr
13-May
25-May
6-Jun
1-Jan
6-Feb
14-Mar
26-Mar
7-Apr
2-Mar
1-May
2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
Source: SensorTower Source: SensorTower Source: SensorTower
Risks to our price objective are slower economic growth, an erosion in investor
sentiment, macroeconomic sluggishness, currency weakness or devaluation, political
turmoil, competition or new market entrants, execution challenges, greater-than-
anticipated margin investment, higher delinquencies, rising working capital needs,
technological problems, cost increases, regulatory difficulties, and tax changes.
Analyst Certification
We, Robert E. Ford Aguilar, CFA and Vinicius Strano, CFA, hereby certify that the views
each of us has expressed in this research report accurately reflect each of our respective
personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of
our respective compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the
specific recommendations or view expressed in this research report.
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Neutral ≥ 0% ≤ 30%
Underperform N/A ≥ 20%
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