CMR 0423 e
CMR 0423 e
Average prices for all group indicators increased in April 2023, with the Robustas averaging an
8.7% gain at 115.70 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 4.3% and
3.2%, to 234.85 and 229.56 US cents/lb, respectively, in April 2023. The Brazilian Naturals lead
the way amongst the Arabicas, climbing 4.4% and reaching an average of 195.26 US cents/lb.
ICE’s New York market expanded 6.3%, whilst the London Futures market grew 9.1% to
187.30 and 105.43 US cents/lb, respectively.
Arbitrage, as measured in between the London and New York Futures markets, expanded by
2.9% to 81.88 US cents/lb in April 2023.
Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP is stabilizing and reached 8.7% with a marginal increase of
0.6 percentage points between March and April 2023. The Robustas presented the strongest
volatility increase, averaging 7.7% for the month of April 2023, a 1.4 percentage point
expansion. Echoing this increased volatility were the New York Futures and London markets,
0
Nov-21
Nov-22
Dec-21
Apr-22
Jul-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
Dec-22
Apr-23
Jun-21
Jul-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Jun-22
May-21
Feb-22
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
May-22
Feb-23
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
LIFFE NYBOT
Source: ICE
The New York certified stocks decreased 7.9% from the previous month, closing in at 0.74 million
60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.31 million 60-kg bags,
representing an increase of 3.1%.
Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.1% in March 2023 to 2.11 million bags from
2.55 million bags in the same period last year. This is the sixth consecutive month of negative
growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a
result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.2% in the first six months of coffee year
2022/23 to 8.86 million bags versus 10.83 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.
Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in March 2023, falling by 13.5% to 3.08 million
bags. For the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals
amounted to 18.61 million bags, down 7.8% from 20.18 million bags over the same period a year
ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly changes in Brazil's green bean
Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 17.4% to 0.96 million bags in March 2023 from
1.17 million bags in March 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of
coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.2% in March 2023. This is the ninth
consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of
this group of coffee for October 2022 to March 2023 were down 14.7%, at 5.63 million bags, as
compared with 6.60 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2021/22.
Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 4.74 million bags in March 2023, as compared
with 4.78 million bags in March 2022, down 0.8%. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23,
23.17 million bags of Robustas were exported as compared with 22.31 million bags in the same
period in 2021/22.
Robustas
Brazilian Naturals
Other Milds
Colombian Milds
0 5 10 15 20 25
Millions
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Arabicas Robustas
Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.0% to 1.12 million bags in March 2023
from 1.18 million bags in March 2022. For the first six months of the current coffee year, exports
totalled 6.35 million bags as compared with 6.33 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 0.3%.
Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya are the main drivers behind the fall in the region’s exports, with
shipments of coffee decreasing by 41.4% to 0.12 million bags as compared with 0.21 million bags
in March 2022, and by 17.7% to 58,340 bags from 70,849 bags in March 2022, respectively.
However, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda served as counterweights that tempered the severity of
the region’s downturn, with their exports up 86.7%, 249.2% and 2.0%, respectively.
In March 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 15.4%
to 1.75 million bags as compared with 2.07 million in March 2022. This latest month of negative
growth is the fifth in the first six months of the current coffee year, with the only instance of
positive growth seen in February 2023. As a result, for the first six months of the current coffee
year, exports are down at 11.8%, totalling 5.78 million bags as compared with 6.56 million bags
from October 2021 to March 2022. Of the top six origins, five saw their exports fall in March
2023, with Guatemala suffering the heaviest decline (-44.9%), while Honduras was the only major
origin with positive growth (2.0%). For Honduras, the increase seen in March is the third
consecutive month of expansion, following 11 straight months of decreases between February
and December 2022.
7,000 500
6,000
400
5,000
300
4,000
3,000 200
2,000
100
1,000
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year March
Exports of roasted beans were up 5.9% in March 2023 to 66,393 bags, as compared with
62,689 bags in March 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to March 2023 was
358,640 bags, as compared with 399,479 bags in same period a year ago.
World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22,
hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of
key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23.
Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset
the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of
growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the
outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year
2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year. Reflecting its cyclical output,
Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in
coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the
world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6%
in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production,
is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.
World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22,
following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the
COVID-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce
back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates
for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on
the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating
rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-
producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease
among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0%
expansion in coffee year 2021/22.
Balance. As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall
of 7.3 million bags.
The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of
the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The CRO offers
an insight into the factors moving the global coffee industry in the most recent past and draws
out the potential events that may drive the industry in the near future. The CRO can be
downloaded from the ICO website: www.icocoffee.org. For further information, please contact
the Statistics Section at [email protected]
Table 5: Certified stocks on the New York and London futures markets
May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23
New York 1.16 1.04 0.77 0.72 0.45 0.41 0.59 0.87 0.91 0.86 0.80 0.74
London 1.71 1.76 1.80 1.61 1.59 1.52 1.45 1.08 1.04 1.19 1.27 1.31
In million 60-kg bags
For each year, the Secretariat uses statistics received from Members to provide estimates and
forecasts for annual production, consumption, trade and stocks. As noted in paragraph 100 of
document ICC 120-16, these statistics can be supplemented and complemented by data from
other sources when information received from Members is incomplete, delayed or inconsistent.
The Secretariat also considers multiple sources for generating supply and demand balance sheets
for non-Members.
The Secretariat uses the concept of the marketing year, that is the coffee year commencing on
1 October of each year, when looking at the global supply and demand balance. Coffee-producing
countries are located in different regions around the world, with various crop years, i.e. the 12-
month period from one harvest to the next. The crop years currently used by the Secretariat
commence on 1 April, 1 July and 1 October. To maintain consistency, the Secretariat converts
production data from a crop year basis to a marketing year basis depending on the harvest
months for each country. Using a coffee year basis for the global coffee supply and demand, as
well as prices, ensures that analysis of the market situation occurs within the same time period.
For example, the 2018/19 coffee year began on 1 October 2018 and ended 30 September 2019.
However, for producers with crop years commencing on 1 April, the crop year production occurs
across two coffee years. Brazil’s 2018/19 crop year began on 1 April 2018 and finished 31 March
2019, covering the first half of coffee year 2018/19. However, Brazil’s 2019/20 crop year
commenced 1 April 2019 and ended 31 March 2020, covering the latter half of coffee year
2019/20. In order to bring the crop year production into a single coffee year, the Secretariat
would allocate a portion of the April–March 2018/19 crop year production and a portion of the
April–March 2019/20 production into 2018/19 coffee year production.
It should be noted that while estimates for coffee year production are created for each individual
country, these are made for the purpose of creating a consistent aggregated supply-demand
balance for analytical purposes and does not represent the production occurring on the ground
within the individual countries.
Note:
Materials provided may be used, reproduced, or transmitted, in whole or in part, in any form or
by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or the use of any
information storage and retrieval system, if the International Coffee Organization (ICO) is clearly
acknowledged as the source.
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