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CMR 0423 e

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) for coffee gained 5.0% in April 2023 to average 178.57 US cents/lb, the highest since September 2022, supported by decreasing global coffee exports. Average prices increased for all coffee types in April. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential and arbitrage between London and New York futures markets both expanded. Global certified coffee stocks decreased from the previous month while intra-day price volatility stabilized. The market is expected to remain in deficit in the 2022/23 coffee year.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
23 views12 pages

CMR 0423 e

The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) for coffee gained 5.0% in April 2023 to average 178.57 US cents/lb, the highest since September 2022, supported by decreasing global coffee exports. Average prices increased for all coffee types in April. The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential and arbitrage between London and New York futures markets both expanded. Global certified coffee stocks decreased from the previous month while intra-day price volatility stabilized. The market is expected to remain in deficit in the 2022/23 coffee year.
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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I-CIP expands to 178.

57 US cents/lb in April 2023, supported by


decreasing exports.
• The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) gained 5.0% from March to April 2023, averaging
178.57 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 179.51 US cents/lb.
• Average prices for all group indicators increased in April 2023, with the Robustas averaging an 8.7% gain
at 115.70 US cents/lb.
• The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential presented resilient growth, rising 84.3% to 5.30 US cents/lb.
• Arbitrage, as measured in between the London and New York Futures markets, expanded by 2.9% to
81.88 US cents/lb in April 2023.
• Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP is stabilizing and reached 8.7%, with a marginal increase of 0.6 percentage
points between March and April 2023
• The New York certified stocks decreased 7.9% from the previous month, closing in at 0.74 million 60-kg
bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.31 million 60-kg bags, up 3.1%.
• Global green bean exports in March 2023 totalled 10.90 million bags, as compared with 12.06 million bags
in March 2022, down 9.6% due to a combination of factors, such as climate, socio-political reasons and
seasonality affecting the different regions and origins.
• Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.1% in March 2023 to 2.11 million bags from 2.55 million bags
in the same period last year.
• Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell by 13.5% in March 2023 to 3.08 million bags.
• Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 17.4% to 0.96 million bags in March 2023
• Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 4.74 million bags in March 2023, as compared with
4.78 million bags in March 2022, down 0.8%.
• In March 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee fell by 17.3% to 4.13 million bags.
• Asia & Oceania’s exports of all forms of coffee rose by 0.2% to 5.03 million bags in March 2023.
• Africa’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 5.0% to 1.12 million bags in March 2023.
• In March 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 15.4% to
1.75 million bags as compared with 2.07 million in March 2022.
• Exports of soluble coffee decreased by 6.5% in March 2023 to 1.05 million bags from 1.13 million bags in
March 2022.
• Exports of roasted beans were up 5.9% in March 2023 to 66,393 bags, as compared with 62,689 bags in
March 2022.
• World coffee production decreased by 1.4%, year-on-year, to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22;
however, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23.
• World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22. It is expected to
increase by 1.7% to 178.5 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.
• As a result, the world coffee market is expected to undergo another year of deficit, with an estimated shortfall of
7.3 million bags in coffee year 2022/23.

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 1


Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) gained 5.0% from March 2023 to April 2023, averaging
178.57 US cents/lb for the latter, whilst posting a median value of 179.51 US cents/lb. This
represents the highest level since the 199.63 US cents/lb reached in September 2022. In April
2023, the I-CIP fluctuated between 168.14 and 187.29 US cents/lb. As of the final few months of
2022, coffee prices have been on an upward path, with the I-CIP increasing from an average
156.66 US cents/lb in November 2022 to the April 2023 average of 178.57 US cents/lb. Broadly,
the upward trend has the support of the fundamentals, with the global coffee market in deficit
in coffee year 2021/22 and this situation expected to be repeated in coffee year 2022/23
(see Production and Consumption). The impetus behind the rally from the last days of March
2023 to the beginning of the third week of April 2023 can be attributed to the reinforcement of
the support of the fundamentals from a number of market driving events and announcements
(see Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee). However, the downturn of the I-CIP, seen since
the beginning of the third week of April 2023, appears mainly due to the strengthening US dollar.
From 23 March to 28 April 2023, the Brazilian real (R$) moved from a low of R$5.30 on 23 March
to a peak of R$4.91 on 14 April, before weakening again to an average of R$5.03 between 15 and
28 April against the US dollar.

Average prices for all group indicators increased in April 2023, with the Robustas averaging an
8.7% gain at 115.70 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds and Other Milds increased by 4.3% and
3.2%, to 234.85 and 229.56 US cents/lb, respectively, in April 2023. The Brazilian Naturals lead
the way amongst the Arabicas, climbing 4.4% and reaching an average of 195.26 US cents/lb.
ICE’s New York market expanded 6.3%, whilst the London Futures market grew 9.1% to
187.30 and 105.43 US cents/lb, respectively.

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 2


The Colombian Milds-Other Milds differential presented resilient growth, rising 84.3% to
5.30 US cents/lb. The Colombian Milds-Brazilian Naturals differential also gained 3.6% from
March to April 2023, averaging 39.60 US cents/lb in April, whilst the Colombian Milds-Robustas
grew 0.3% to 119.15 US cents/lb for the same period. Conversely, the Other Milds-Brazilian
Naturals differential lost 2.9%, averaging 34.30 US cents/lb, whilst the Other Milds-Robustas
also shrank by 1.7% to 113.86 US cents/lb. With the most moderate loss, the Brazilian Naturals-
Robustas dropped 1.2% to 79.56 US cents/lb.

Arbitrage, as measured in between the London and New York Futures markets, expanded by
2.9% to 81.88 US cents/lb in April 2023.

Intra-day volatility of the I-CIP is stabilizing and reached 8.7% with a marginal increase of
0.6 percentage points between March and April 2023. The Robustas presented the strongest
volatility increase, averaging 7.7% for the month of April 2023, a 1.4 percentage point
expansion. Echoing this increased volatility were the New York Futures and London markets,

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 3


where 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points were gained, averaging 11.1% and 7.9%, respectively, for
April 2023. Whilst volatility of the Other Milds grew 0.4 percentage points to 9.2%, the
Colombian Milds also increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.0%. Lastly, the Brazilian Naturals
saw an 0.5 percentage point increase in volatility from March to April 2023.

Figure 5: Certified Stocks


3
Millions of 60kg bags

0
Nov-21

Nov-22
Dec-21

Apr-22
Jul-21

Jan-22

Mar-22

Dec-22

Apr-23
Jun-21

Jul-22

Jan-23

Mar-23
Jun-22
May-21

Feb-22
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21

May-22

Feb-23
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
LIFFE NYBOT
Source: ICE

The New York certified stocks decreased 7.9% from the previous month, closing in at 0.74 million
60-kg bags, whilst certified stocks of Robusta coffee reached 1.31 million 60-kg bags,
representing an increase of 3.1%.

Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans


Global green bean exports in March 2023 totalled 10.90 million bags, as compared with
12.06 million bags in the same month of the previous year, down 9.6%. The downturn was
spread across all coffee groups. As a result, the cumulative total exports of green beans for coffee
year 2022/23 is decreasing at an accelerated rate, down 6.1%, as compared with the 5.2% fall
recorded for the first five months of the current coffee year. The cumulative total for 2022/23 to
March is 56.26 million bags, as compared with 59.92 million bags over the same period a
year ago.

Shipments of the Other Milds decreased by 17.1% in March 2023 to 2.11 million bags from
2.55 million bags in the same period last year. This is the sixth consecutive month of negative
growth for green bean exports of the Other Milds since the start of the new coffee year. As a
result, the cumulative volume of exports fell by 18.2% in the first six months of coffee year
2022/23 to 8.86 million bags versus 10.83 million bags over the same period in 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals fell in March 2023, falling by 13.5% to 3.08 million
bags. For the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, green bean exports of the Brazilian Naturals
amounted to 18.61 million bags, down 7.8% from 20.18 million bags over the same period a year
ago. Changes to the fortunes of the Brazilian Naturals are mainly changes in Brazil's green bean

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 4


exports, the biggest producer and exporter of the Brazilian Naturals, which also fell in March
2023 (-14.8%) to 2.78 million bags from 3.27 million bags in March 2022.

Exports of the Colombian Milds decreased by 17.4% to 0.96 million bags in March 2023 from
1.17 million bags in March 2022, driven primarily by Colombia, the main origin of this group of
coffee, whose exports of green beans were down 19.2% in March 2023. This is the ninth
consecutive month of negative growth for the Colombian Milds and, as a result, the exports of
this group of coffee for October 2022 to March 2023 were down 14.7%, at 5.63 million bags, as
compared with 6.60 million bags in the first six months of coffee year 2021/22.

Green bean exports of the Robustas amounted to 4.74 million bags in March 2023, as compared
with 4.78 million bags in March 2022, down 0.8%. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23,
23.17 million bags of Robustas were exported as compared with 22.31 million bags in the same
period in 2021/22.

Figure 6: Green Exports by Coffee Variety (October-March)

Robustas

Brazilian Naturals

Other Milds

Colombian Milds

0 5 10 15 20 25

Millions
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Figure 7: Share of Green Exports by Coffee Species (October-March)

2019/20 62.6% 37.4%

2020/21 65.7% 34.3%

2021/22 62.7% 37.3%

2022/23 58.8% 41.2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Arabicas Robustas

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 5


Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
In March 2023, South America’s exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 17.3% to 4.13 million
bags, driven by the three main origins of the region, Brazil, Colombia and Peru, which saw their
combined exports fall by 17.9%. The two major origins of the region, Brazil and Colombia, saw
their respective shipments of coffee decrease by 14.3% and 19.2% in March 2023, falling to
3.1 million and 0.92 million bags, i.e. the fourth and ninth consecutive months of negative
growth, respectively. The off-season and smaller harvests in 2020/21 and 2021/22 have been
put forward as explanations for Brazil’s falling exports by Cecafé, the Brazilian Coffee Exporters
Council, while in Colombia both an adverse weather-driven fall in supply and a 10% decrease in
production in March 2023, continue to explain the decreasing exports. Peru is continuing to see
its exports fall at a significantly faster rate, plunging by 76.5% in March 2023. Again, erratic
weather played a part in this downturn, in addition to social unrest in the main producing areas
(Cajamarca, Junín and San Martín) which saw their roads blocked. However, the main culprit
behind the magnitude of the fall in exports is mechanical; 4.60 million bags of all forms of coffee
were exported in coffee year 2021/22, the second largest in volume on record, just behind the
4.69 million bags exported in coffee year 2011/12, increasing by 44.8% as compared with coffee
year 2020/21. Moreover, for the first three months of the calendar year (January to March 2022),
exports increased by 245.8% at 1.00 million bags, the largest Q1 shipment on record, and 57.4%
higher than the next biggest, 0.64 million bags, recorded in 2012. Given these record breaking
numbers the Q1 data for 2023 are, inevitably, suffering in comparison.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Africa decreased by 5.0% to 1.12 million bags in March 2023
from 1.18 million bags in March 2022. For the first six months of the current coffee year, exports
totalled 6.35 million bags as compared with 6.33 million bags in coffee year 2021/22, up 0.3%.
Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya are the main drivers behind the fall in the region’s exports, with
shipments of coffee decreasing by 41.4% to 0.12 million bags as compared with 0.21 million bags
in March 2022, and by 17.7% to 58,340 bags from 70,849 bags in March 2022, respectively.
However, Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda served as counterweights that tempered the severity of
the region’s downturn, with their exports up 86.7%, 249.2% and 2.0%, respectively.

In March 2023, exports of all forms of coffee from Mexico & Central America were down 15.4%
to 1.75 million bags as compared with 2.07 million in March 2022. This latest month of negative
growth is the fifth in the first six months of the current coffee year, with the only instance of
positive growth seen in February 2023. As a result, for the first six months of the current coffee
year, exports are down at 11.8%, totalling 5.78 million bags as compared with 6.56 million bags
from October 2021 to March 2022. Of the top six origins, five saw their exports fall in March
2023, with Guatemala suffering the heaviest decline (-44.9%), while Honduras was the only major
origin with positive growth (2.0%). For Honduras, the increase seen in March is the third
consecutive month of expansion, following 11 straight months of decreases between February
and December 2022.

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 6


Exports of all forms of coffee from Asia & Oceania increased by 0.2% to 5.03 million bags in
March 2023 and were up 2.5% to 24.05 million bags in the first six months of coffee year
2022/23. Indonesia is the main driver of the latest upturn, with exports increasing by 16.0% to
0.58 million bags from 0.50 million bags in March 2022, outweighing the 1.6% and 1.1%
downturns of India and Vietnam, respectively. Indonesia’s upturn in exports seemingly came in
the face of evidence to the contrary; the ICO’s latest outlook for coffee year 2022/23 projected
Indonesia’s production to be growing at a slower rate than its consumption, 1.1% versus 5.1%,
thereby reducing the supply available for export. Moreover, earlier in the year, the Association of
Indonesia Coffee Exporters and Industries projected a 20% fall in production due to excessive
rain across the coffee growing regions, while severe rainfall was seen through much of the
archipelago in the first four months of 2023. The double-digit expansion of exports in March is
mainly explained by the strong on-off seasonality of Indonesia’s coffee exports, which is evident
in both annual and monthly data (see Graph A). Thus, the 16.0% increase in March 2023 is more
a reflection of March 2022 than a statement on the current status of Indonesia’s coffee industry
or the world’s demand for its coffee.

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 7


Graph A: Exports of All Forms of Coffee for Years and Months of March of Each Year

Exports of All Forms of Coffee - Indonesia


10,000 700
9,000
600

March, '000 690-kg Bags


8,000
Years, '000 60-kg Bags

7,000 500

6,000
400
5,000
300
4,000
3,000 200
2,000
100
1,000
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Year March

Exports of Coffee by Forms


Total exports of soluble coffee decreased by 6.5% in March 2023 to 1.05 million bags from
1.13 million bags in March 2022. In the first six months of coffee year 2022/23, a total of
5.67 million bags of soluble coffee were exported, representing a decrease of 8.8% from the
6.22 million bags exported in the same period during the previous coffee year. Soluble coffee’s
share in the total exports of all forms of coffee was 10.1% (measured on a moving 12-month
average) in March 2023, the same as it was in March 2022. Brazil is the largest exporter of
soluble coffee, shipping 0.32 million bags in March 2023.

Exports of roasted beans were up 5.9% in March 2023 to 66,393 bags, as compared with
62,689 bags in March 2022. The cumulative total for coffee year 2022/23 to March 2023 was
358,640 bags, as compared with 399,479 bags in same period a year ago.

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 8


Production and Consumption
The estimates and outlook of production and consumption for coffee years 2021/22 and 2022/23
remain the same.

World coffee production decreased by 1.4% to 168.5 million bags in coffee year 2021/22,
hampered by the off-biennial production and negative meteorological conditions in a number of
key origins. However, it is expected to bounce back by 1.7% to 171.3 million bags in 2022/23.
Increased global fertiliser costs and adverse weather conditions are expected to partially offset
the positive impact of biennial production from Brazil, explaining the relatively low rate of
growth in coffee year 2022/23. The impact of biennial production is anticipated to drive the
outlook for Arabica, which is projected to increase by 4.6% to 98.6 million bags in coffee year
2022/23, following a 7.2% decrease in the previous coffee year. Reflecting its cyclical output,
Arabica’s share of the total coffee production is expected to increase to 57.5% from 55.9% in
coffee year 2021/22. South America is and will remain the largest producer of coffee in the
world, despite suffering from the largest drop in output for almost 20 years, which fell by 7.6%
in coffee year 2021/22. The recovery in coffee year 2022/23, partly driven by biennial production,
is expected to push the region’s output to 82.4 million bags, a rise of 6.2%.

World coffee consumption increased by 4.2% to 175.6 million bags in coffee year 2021/22,
following a 0.6% rise the previous year. Release of the pent-up demand built up during the
COVID-19 years and sharp global economic growth of 6.0% in 2021 explains the sharp bounce
back in coffee consumption in coffee year 2021/22. Decelerating world economic growth rates
for 2022 and 2023, coupled with the dramatic rise in the cost of living, will have an impact on
the coffee consumption for coffee year 2022/23. It is expected to grow, but at a decelerating
rate of 1.7% to 178.5 million bags. The global deceleration is expected to come from non-
producing countries, with Europe’s coffee consumption predicted to suffer the largest decrease
among all regions, with growth rates falling to 0.1% in coffee year 2022/23 from a 6.0%
expansion in coffee year 2021/22.

Balance. As a result, the world coffee market is expected to run another year of deficit, a shortfall
of 7.3 million bags.

The outlook is taken from the newest publication of the Statistics Section of the Secretariat of
the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Coffee Report and Outlook (CRO). The CRO offers
an insight into the factors moving the global coffee industry in the most recent past and draws
out the potential events that may drive the industry in the near future. The CRO can be
downloaded from the ICO website: www.icocoffee.org. For further information, please contact
the Statistics Section at [email protected]

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 9


Table 1: ICO daily indicator prices and futures prices (US cents/lb)
Colombian Brazilian
ICO Composite Other Milds Robustas New York* London*
Milds Naturals
Monthly averages
Apr-22 198.37 292.64 265.40 226.11 103.96 225.37 95.07
May-22 193.71 286.44 260.42 217.84 103.10 218.61 94.31
Jun-22 202.46 301.57 273.69 230.40 103.81 229.38 94.48
Jul-22 190.82 286.07 255.91 214.80 100.44 210.84 89.60
Aug-22 200.11 295.66 268.43 221.91 109.65 218.53 98.75
Sep-22 199.63 294.09 267.49 219.59 111.36 218.24 100.49
Oct-22 178.54 261.95 240.08 192.27 103.01 191.72 92.16
Nov-22 156.66 223.22 213.85 166.54 92.59 164.80 82.67
Dec-22 157.19 224.12 210.24 169.00 93.76 166.21 83.95
Jan-23 156.95 218.91 206.76 170.03 95.98 159.80 85.82
Feb-23 174.77 238.39 229.73 195.18 103.93 180.93 94.26
Mar-23 170.03 225.23 222.36 187.02 106.49 176.17 96.60
Apr-23 178.57 234.85 229.56 195.26 115.70 187.30 105.43
% change between Mar-23 and Apr-23
5.0% 4.3% 3.2% 4.4% 8.7% 6.3% 9.1%
Volatility (%)
Mar-23 8.1% 8.7% 8.8% 10.3% 6.3% 11.0% 7.1%
Apr-23 8.7% 9.0% 9.2% 10.8% 7.7% 11.1% 7.9%
Variation between Mar-23 and Apr-23
0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.1 0.8
* Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positions

Table 2: Price differentials (US cents/lb)


Colombian Colombian Colombian Other Milds Other Milds Brazilian New York*
Milds Milds Milds Naturals
Other Milds Brazilian Robustas Brazilian Robustas Robustas London*
Naturals Naturals
May-22 26.02 68.60 183.34 42.57 157.32 114.75 124.30
Jun-22 27.88 71.18 197.76 43.29 169.88 126.59 134.90
Jul-22 30.16 71.27 185.63 41.10 155.46 114.36 121.24
Aug-22 27.23 73.75 186.01 46.52 158.78 112.26 119.79
Sep-22 26.60 74.50 182.74 47.90 156.13 108.23 117.74
Oct-22 21.87 69.68 158.94 47.82 137.07 89.25 99.56
Nov-22 9.37 56.68 130.63 47.31 121.26 73.95 82.13
Dec-22 13.88 55.12 130.36 41.24 116.48 75.24 82.26
Jan-23 12.15 48.88 122.93 36.73 110.78 74.05 73.97
Feb-23 8.66 43.21 134.46 34.55 125.80 91.25 86.67
Mar-23 2.87 38.21 118.74 35.34 115.87 80.53 79.57
Apr-23 5.30 39.60 119.15 34.30 113.86 79.56 81.88
% change between Mar-23 and Apr-23
84.3% 3.6% 0.3% -2.9% -1.7% -1.2% 2.9%
* Average prices for 2nd and 3rd positions

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 10


Table 3: World Supply/Demand Balance
% change
Coffee year commencing 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022* 2022/21
PRODUCTION 167,568 169,884 168,387 170,868 168,485 171,268 1.7%
Arabica 97,862 99,615 96,670 101,577 94,248 98,559 4.6%
Robusta 69,707 70,269 71,717 69,290 74,237 72,709 -2.1%
Africa 17,428 18,523 18,698 19,281 19,132 19,405 1.4%
Asia & Oceania 52,214 48,069 49,307 47,912 52,102 49,713 -4.6%
Mexico & Central America 21,475 21,361 19,321 19,747 19,655 19,726 0.4%
South America 76,453 81,934 81,064 83,937 77,596 82,424 6.2%
CONSUMPTION 165,637 170,876 167,593 168,569 175,605 178,534 1.7%
Exporting countries 51,575 52,234 51,441 52,518 53,615 55,369 3.3%
Importing countries (Coffee Years) 114,062 118,642 116,152 116,051 121,991 123,165 1.0%
Africa 11,707 11,921 12,034 12,552 12,877 13,403 4.1%
Asia & Oceania 38,819 39,572 39,198 41,289 42,828 44,162 3.1%
Mexico & Central America 5,667 5,805 5,857 5,882 5,967 6,124 2.6%
Europe 53,523 55,449 53,953 52,237 55,359 55,388 0.1%
North America 29,939 31,789 30,581 30,228 31,679 32,078 1.3%
South America 25,981 26,340 25,969 26,381 26,895 27,379 1.8%
BALANCE 1,932 -992 794 2,298 -7,120 -7,266
*preliminary estimates

Table 4: Total exports by exporting countries


Mar-22 Mar-23 % change Year to Date Coffee Year
2021/22 2022/23 % change
TOTAL 13,253 12,023 -9.3% 66,534 62,295 -6.4%
Arabicas 7,863 6,753 -14.1% 40,995 36,330 -11.4%
Colombian Milds 1,281 1,056 -17.5% 7,175 6,204 -13.5%
Other Milds 2,755 2,374 -13.8% 12,137 10,224 -15.8%
Brazilian Naturals 3,826 3,322 -13.2% 21,683 19,903 -8.2%
Robustas 5,390 5,270 -2.2% 25,539 25,965 1.7%
In thousand 60-kg bags
Monthly trade statistics are available upon subscription

Table 5: Certified stocks on the New York and London futures markets
May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Mar-23 Apr-23
New York 1.16 1.04 0.77 0.72 0.45 0.41 0.59 0.87 0.91 0.86 0.80 0.74
London 1.71 1.76 1.80 1.61 1.59 1.52 1.45 1.08 1.04 1.19 1.27 1.31
In million 60-kg bags

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 11


Explanatory Note for Table 3

For each year, the Secretariat uses statistics received from Members to provide estimates and
forecasts for annual production, consumption, trade and stocks. As noted in paragraph 100 of
document ICC 120-16, these statistics can be supplemented and complemented by data from
other sources when information received from Members is incomplete, delayed or inconsistent.
The Secretariat also considers multiple sources for generating supply and demand balance sheets
for non-Members.

The Secretariat uses the concept of the marketing year, that is the coffee year commencing on
1 October of each year, when looking at the global supply and demand balance. Coffee-producing
countries are located in different regions around the world, with various crop years, i.e. the 12-
month period from one harvest to the next. The crop years currently used by the Secretariat
commence on 1 April, 1 July and 1 October. To maintain consistency, the Secretariat converts
production data from a crop year basis to a marketing year basis depending on the harvest
months for each country. Using a coffee year basis for the global coffee supply and demand, as
well as prices, ensures that analysis of the market situation occurs within the same time period.

For example, the 2018/19 coffee year began on 1 October 2018 and ended 30 September 2019.
However, for producers with crop years commencing on 1 April, the crop year production occurs
across two coffee years. Brazil’s 2018/19 crop year began on 1 April 2018 and finished 31 March
2019, covering the first half of coffee year 2018/19. However, Brazil’s 2019/20 crop year
commenced 1 April 2019 and ended 31 March 2020, covering the latter half of coffee year
2019/20. In order to bring the crop year production into a single coffee year, the Secretariat
would allocate a portion of the April–March 2018/19 crop year production and a portion of the
April–March 2019/20 production into 2018/19 coffee year production.

It should be noted that while estimates for coffee year production are created for each individual
country, these are made for the purpose of creating a consistent aggregated supply-demand
balance for analytical purposes and does not represent the production occurring on the ground
within the individual countries.

Note:

Materials provided may be used, reproduced, or transmitted, in whole or in part, in any form or
by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or the use of any
information storage and retrieval system, if the International Coffee Organization (ICO) is clearly
acknowledged as the source.

*****

Coffee Market Report – April 2023 12

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