Fertilizer Week

Urea

Jennifer Willis-Jones
Senior Markets Editor, Nitrogen
+44 20 7903 2196
[email protected]

13 JULY 2023

Analysis
Urea prices continue their upwards march

It appears prilled and granular urea prices are only heading in one direction through July and
into August, and that is upwards. Tight supply east of Suez in recent weeks has taken its toll,
and expectations of an upcoming Indian tender and a return to Latin American demand will
support prices going forward.

The only possible fly in the ointment for suppliers is the unknown quantity of urea China may
export from second-half July onwards as domestic demand wanes. Chinese suppliers have
already hinted they are willing to supply India with tonnes, whether the tender is announced
mid or late July. Coal feedstocks costs have lowered, and higher international prices make
exports ex-China an attractive prospect once again. Chinese prills and granular quotes are
now in the low $330s/t FOB.

Southeast Asia is back in the frame as a supplier this week as Brunei’s BFI not only restarted
but saw close to 30,000 t granular sold to a trader at $336-340/t FOB for shipment to
Australia. Pupuk Indonesia is expected to be back with an export tender late July. Petronas’
Bintulu plant is shut once again.

Middle East suppliers keenly await the Indian tender. In the meantime, an Omani cargo was
placed in Brazil in the mid $320s/t FOB equivalent and a September sale was reported at

©2023 CRU International Ltd | All rights reserved

Urea 13 JULY 2023

$351/t FOB. The latter deal was excluded from this week’s index due to falling too far ahead,
but it serves to show the direction of travel.

Brazil continues to wake up and support pricing while demand continues, surprising some,
in the US. NOLA prompt values at $320-335/st FOB are largely attributed to demand from
the rice market.

North African suppliers, particularly Egyptians, continue to enjoy a mini rally in prices
reaching $380/t FOB at the time of writing. European demand is slow but steady, perhaps
as buyers wish not to be caught out should natural gas prices surge suddenly again.

Highlights of the week:

• MOPCO sells granular at $380/t FOB Egypt

• Doubts over India urea tender timing
• China looking ahead to next India urea tender
• Oman tonnes sold at $350/t FOB September
• BFI sells spot, plant restarts
• NOLA prompt and forward rising
Short term outlook

Firm outlook for urea pricing in the next 30-40 days as suppliers are well sold and look ahead
to the next India tender.

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

Insights
New Dawn Fades: Is the Chinese recovery in trouble?
Watch CRU's Quarterly Economic Outlook webinar

Recent data has cast doubts on the strength of the recovery in China. In this webinar we look
at what this means for the world economy, energy markets and commodities. (Recorded 12
July)

CRU’s enhanced Sustainability and Emissions Service is

now available
The open access to Sustainability insights and policy updates has now ceased. Access to
the latest policy changes, decarbonisation strategies, developments in green technologies
and the cost implications of emission reduction scenarios is available with a subscription.

The world economy in 2023: What we’ve got right (and

wrong) so far
In our November 2022 Global Economic Outlook we looked ahead to 2023 and made ten
predictions on what awaited the global economy.

crugroup.com PAGE 3 OF 12
 Chris Houlden
Divisional Managing
Director, Head of Analysis
+44 20 7903 2115
[email protected]

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

Markets
▶ Global

Urea trade data update

The following urea trade data updates were released recently by S&P Global:

For a more detailed breakdown of trade data click here to view an excel file in the product
library.

▶ North America

US NOLA: Prompt and forward urea rising

Prompt granular urea barges changed hands at $320-335/st FOB New Orleans this week,
while forward trades in the paper markets moved over $340/st FOB into Q4.

Much of the support for prompt and forward gains in the barge market came from overseas,
where markets from the Middle East to Africa saw double-digit gains. Prices for sales out of
the Middle East excluding US business were up $21/st. However, the domestic market
contributed with demand for the rice market finding less availability than buyers hoped.

Buyers for August and September granular urea barges paid $323/st FOB and $325/st FOB
New Orleans, while a loaded barge sold at $324/st FOB 11 July, according to traders.
Another loaded barge was purchased 10 July at $320/st FOB. The increase in prompt prices
for urea barges is credited to demand from the rice market. This is up from last week's high
of $310/st FOB.

At the same time US inland prices still were correcting lower from peak spring prices. The
result is greater uniformity across the US compared to the prior couple of months.

Last week's New Orleans range of $295-310/st FOB was questioned by a few market
participants that complained the top of the range was excessive.

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

US S. Plains: Urea inches up

Granular urea moved up $3/st this week in the Southern Plains, contrary to other US markets,
but sellers noted urea prices in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas made were ahead of other
domestic markets in adjusting to summer pricing.

As a result, the Southern Plains of $380-420/st FOB is only moderately higher than other US
markets this week. Some late demand for nitrogen remains for pasture ground in the region.
Last week's range was $380-415/st FOB.

US Midwest: Urea retreats again

Granular urea prices in the Midwest moved down again this week, falling an average of
$25/st to $370-375/st FOB, according to distributors in the region.
This range is roughly in line with replacement costs out of the New Orleans barge market
plus freight and allowing for a useful margin. However, spring demand is exhausted and
there is little fall urea interest in the Midwest. Fall nitrogen applications are dominated by
ammonia.

USA: Higher exports, lower imports over July-May 2022/23

Tight US urea supplies through the end of market year 30 June were apparent by the close
of May when July 2022-May 2023 imports were down and exports were up, according to the
most recent figures from the US Department of Commerce (DOC).

There was a moderate recovery in urea arrivals during May 2023. DOC reported imports of
771,385 st (699,796 t), up from 603,979 st (547,926 t) for May 2022.
For the first 11 months of the 2022/23 US market year through May the US imported 4.58 M
st (4.15 M t), down more than 20% from the 2021/22 total of 5.74 M st (5.2 t) during July
2021-May.

The key urea suppliers to the US during July 2022-May 2023 included Qatar at 1.13 M st,
Russia at 761,299 st and Saudi Arabia at 622,222 st.

Exports

US May urea exports were 36,610 st (33,212 t), according to the DOC. This was far below
the 160,877 st exported during May 2022.

The conservative volume shipped to other countries during May did not make up for the
increase in exports during July-May 2022/23 versus the prior year period. That volume
jumped to 1.34 M st (1.22 M t) from 804,305 st (729,661 t), during the prior year period.

The July-May 2022/23 exports included 100,299 st of urea originally imported from other
countries only to be resold for export.

The lion’s share of US urea exports totalling 595,279 st during July-May 2022/23 were
shipped to Canada.

W. Canada: Latest urea offers down over $100/t

Independent distributors report granular urea offers in the western provinces of Canada have
reached low enough to attract some interest from end users, in part because of the more
bullish outlook for urea in the US and internationally.

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

After conflicting reports in prior weeks, granular urea was firm for the market week ended 13
July at CAD 605 (US$459)/t DEL.

▶ Central and South America

Brazil: Granular prices up to $367/t CFR

Brazilian granular urea concluded prices reached $367/t CFR this week following a run in
prices.
Prices this week were $340-367/t CFR compared with $330-340/t CFR last week.

Deals were confirmed concluded by major traders at $360/t CFR and at $367/t CFR.

At least one deal was suggested concluded at $340/t CFR for Rio Grande earlier this week
while an Omani 35,000-40,000 t parcel ex-SIUCI was suggested sold in the low to mid
$350s/t CFR Paranagua on 11 July for August shipment.

Offers are now up to the mid-$370s/t CFR for mainstream product while Russian tonnage is
priced closer to $350-355/t CFR.

Central America: Incofe linked to Acron urea

Incofe floated an import tender for 10,500-14,000 t prills and 15,000-19,000 t granular urea
in combination with other products this week.

The tender closed 12 July with Acron rumoured to have sold prills at $355/t CFR and granular
at $365/t CFR.

The tonnes were suggested sought for first-half August shipment.

▶ Former Soviet Union (FSU)

Black Sea: Steady movement of urea

Black Sea urea sales continue at a slow, steady pace.

Prills and granular prices are pegged largely in line with the Baltic at $290-300/t FOB for the
former and $310-320/t FOB for the latter.

In Ukraine, prills production continues at CherkassyAzot. The plant may produce up to

30,000 t in July.
Domestic urea prices in Ukraine are UAH 21,000-21,600/t CPT/EXW (in bags) while imports
are UAH 19,900-21,400/t FCA/EXW (in bags).

Baltic Sea: Urea turnarounds dominate supply picture

Relatively little urea trade was reported out of the Baltic this week as many producers
undertake turnarounds of their facilities.

Prills prices are pegged at $290-320/t FOB, reflecting sales of small lots into Europe by at
least one producer and returns on an Acron sale of prills into Central America.

Similarly, netbacks on Acron’s sale of granular to Incofe is reflected in the range of $310-
330/t FOB posted this week, which also includes returns on sales into Brazil.

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

▶ Europe

France: Granular urea prices solidly climbing

Granular urea sales of over 10,000 t were concluded in France this week at €370/t FCA.

Most sellers have now pulled out of the market following further global price rises.

Suppliers may well push for prices at €385-390/t FCA next week.

▶ Middle East and Africa

Egypt: MOPCO sells granular at $380/t FOB

Egypt's MOPCO sold two cargoes, one of 5,000 t and another of 10,000 t, at $380/t FOB
Egypt to two different traders for August shipment on 13 July. The destination was listed as
open.
The deal is up $2/t on Abu Qir's 20,000 t granular urea sale at $378/t FOB for August
shipment on 13 July.

This was up on MOPCO sales of 2x5,000 t granular urea at $375/t FOB for August shipment
earlier this week.
Prices last reached $380/t FOB Egypt in mid-March 2023, according to CRU's Fertilizer
Week index.

Algeria: Sorfert linked to July urea sale

Sorfert was reported to have concluded a sale of 30,000 t granular urea for prompt loading
at $350/t FOB this week. Fertiglobe was linked to the tonnes, but this was not confirmed.
The destination was not disclosed.
AOA is suggested offering tonnes for first-half August shipment in the $370s/t FOB.

Iran: Push for higher granular urea prices

Iranian granular urea producers pushed offers to $290/t FOB this week. This level was not
concluded with price interest closer to $280/t FOB.

Producer Lordegan issued a 30,000 t granular export tender closing 16 July for first-half
August shipment.

Despite producer protests against rising gas prices, the government posted a 40% increase.
The official gas feedstock price is now IRR 70,000, equivalent to USD 0.20/m3.

Middle East: Oman tonnes sold at $350/t FOB September

Oman's SIUCI sold 45,000 t granular urea at close to $350/t FOB for September shipment
on 12 July. The destination is listed as open.

The deal is up $25/t on the producer's 35,000-40,000 t granular urea sale to trader for Brazil
in the mid-$320s/t FOB on 11 July. These tonnes will be shipped in August.
This week Middle East non-US netback granular prices are assessed at $325-340/t FOB.
The SIUCI sale at $350/t FOB is excluded from the index due to being more than six weeks
forward. The high end of $340/t FOB reflects paper markets.

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

The price of barges in the prompt market at New Orleans at $320-335/st FOB is indicative
of returns to suppliers at $310-327/t FOB with very limited provisions for costs on top of
prevailing freight.

▶ Indian Subcontinent

India: Doubts over urea tender timing

Latest suggestions from India are that a fresh urea import tender may be issued end July or
early August. Earlier expectations were for a session to be floated mid-July.

IPL is also mooted as a potential canalising agency for the tender whereas prior reports
pointed to NFL.

A surge in Middle East granular urea prices and a bump up in Chinese spot offers currently
points to delivered prices in a wide range of $340-360/t CFR. This is considerably higher
than the $284.90/t CFR ECI and $279.70/t CFR for WCI secured by RCF in its 12 June
tender.

▶ Asia and Oceania

Indonesia: Pupuk may float export tenders soon

Pupuk Indonesia may float export tenders for prills and granular urea in the coming weeks,
according to regional sources.

For now, prices are assessed at $330-340/t FOB on an indicative basis.

Malaysia: Petronas Bintulu plant shut once again

Petronas shut its Bintulu granular urea plant once again on 12 July for 35-40 days to conduct
scheduled maintenance.
The facility had only recently restarted following a sudden closure.

The producer does not expect to have urea available on a spot basis in the near term.
Prices are indicatively assessed at $330-340/t FOB.

China: Looking ahead to next India urea tender

Sun International has loaded parts of its 50,000 t urea cargo for RCF from Sinoagri Tianjin
on the Beate Oldendorff and is now on its way to Huanghua, despite earlier rumours to the
contrary.

There are suggestions that Huanghua’s plant was shut down on 11 July due to a technical
issue and the facility may only restart in 4-5 days. It is unlikely there will be an issue sourcing
product for Sun given that Huanghua is prioritising export business.
Chinese exporters are already eyeing up the next India tender. Most market participants are
expecting the next session will come in July, although some sources now point to August.
Given surging international urea prices and upcoming tender expectations, China’s inland
and export prices continue to increase this week.

Current export offers for Chinese granular urea are $330-340/t FOB at an average $335/t
FOB, up from an assessment of $310-320/t FOB last week. Mainstream offer prices from
China for prilled urea now assessed at $320-330/t FOB at an average $325/t FOB versus
$290-300/t FOB previously.

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

Domestically, on the demand side there is still agricultural demand for urea for top dress
application on rice and corn in northern and southern China. NPK producers are also in the
market to prepare for the autumn application season since they have not built stocks for raw
materials.
Traders are wary as after mid-July Chinese urea market will run into a relatively off-season.
Also, increasing demand for autumn is focused on phosphates and the use of urea is
limited.
Present production is 160,000 t/day, which decreased 4,000 t compared with production last
week.

Mainstream prilled prices are assessed at RMB2,260-2,290/t EXW ($314-318/t) in Shandong

and Henan which increased RMB60-130/t ($8-18/t) compared with last week, while the high-
end price rose RMB130/t ($18/t) to RMB2,330/t EXW ($324/t) in Hebei province.

Low-end-prilled urea prices increased RMB170/t ($24/t) to RMB2,220/t EXW ($309/t) in

Shanxi for truck delivery.
Domestic prills prices in northern China are assessed at RMB2,220-2,330/t EXW, providing
an average price at RMB2,275t EXW ($316/t).

Brunei: BFI sells spot, plant restarts

Brunei’s BFI sold close to 20,000t granular urea between $336-340/t FOB this week for late
July shipment to Australia. The tonnes are linked to Nitron.

This follows news that the BFI granular urea plant fully restarted this week after a lengthy
shutdown which was suggested to have started in April.
It is unclear whether the closure is related to technical or natural-gas supply issues.

Vietnam: CaMau granular sold to Samsung for Chile

Samsung's CaMau 40,000 t granular urea cargo purchase at $320/t FOB for August
shipment concluded last week will likely cover a prior sale to Nitron, according to local
sources.

The tonnes will be shipped to Chile, with the deal between Samsung and Nitron concluded
early June.

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

Weekly Prices
Commodity/Type Unit 29 Jun 2023 06 Jul 2023 13 Jul 2023 W-on-W
Urea
Prilled Bulk FOB
China Spot1 USD/t 290–300 290–300 320–330 30
Black Sea Spot1 USD/t 250–260 270–280 290–300 20
Baltic Sea Spot1 USD/t 250–270 270–285 290–320 28
Indonesia Spot1 USD/t 290–300 290–300 320–330 30
Prilled Bulk CFR
Mediterranean (duty paid) Spot 1 USD/t 290–350 320–370 340–390 20
Southeast Asia Spot1 USD/t 310–315 315–320 350–360 38
Prilled/Granular Bulk CFR
India Spot1 USD/t 305–315 310–320 340–360 35
Granular Bulk FOB
US New Orleans barge Spot USD/st 285–305 295–310 320–335 25
Black Sea Spot1 USD/t 270–300 290–310 310–320 15
Baltic Sea Spot1 USD/t 270–300 290–300 310–330 25
Middle East (non US netback) Spot 1 USD/t 280–312 312–312 325–340 21
Middle East (US netback) Spot USD/t 272–294 283–299 310–327 28
Middle East (all netbacks) Spot 1 USD/t 272–312 283–312 310–340 28
Iran Spot1 USD/t 240–260 262–273 280–290 18
China Spot1 USD/t 300–310 310–320 330–340 20
Egypt Spot USD/t 340–350 355–370 370–380 13
Algeria Spot1 USD/t 340–350 360–360 350–370 0
Nigeria Spot1 USD/t 285–295 310–320 330–350 25
Malaysia Spot1 USD/t 325–330 320–330 330–340 10
Indonesia Spot1 USD/t 325–330 320–330 330–340 10
US Midwest Spot USD/st 455–470 360–435 370–375 -25
US Great Lakes Spot USD/st 470–470 435–435 375–375 -60
US Southern Plains Spot USD/st 400–425 380–415 380–420 3
US Arkansas River Spot USD/st 400–425 380–415 380–420 3
US East Coast Spot USD/st 455–470 435–455 435–440 -8
US Twin Cities Spot USD/st 470–470 435–435 375–375 -60
Granular Bulk CFR
Southeast Asia Spot1 USD/t 330–350 340–360 360–370 15
South Korea spot1 USD/t 330–350 340–360 360–370 15
Brazil Spot USD/t 297–315 330–340 340–367 19
Mediterranean (duty paid) Spot 1 USD/t 310–370 350–390 360–410 15
Granular Bulk DEL
US Northern Plains Spot USD/st 490–495 460–490 400–425 -63
Western Canada Spot CAD/t 755–765 755–765 605–605 -155
Granular Bulk FCA
France Spot EUR/t 335–340 350–360 370–370 15
Prilled Bagged EXW
China North Spot RMB/t 1,960–2,120 2,050–2,200 2,220–2,330 150
(1) Indicative Price

Weekly Freights
Commodity/Type Unit 29 Jun 2023 06 Jul 2023 13 Jul 2023 W-on-W
Urea
Yuzhnyy–Turkey 10-15,000 mt 8,000c/3,000c 1 USD/t 20–22 20–22 20–22 0
Yuzhnyy–Mundra 60-70,000 mt 10,000c/10,000x 1 USD/t 25–27 25–27 26–28 1
Yuzhnyy–Brazil 25-30,000 mt 8,000c/5,000c1 USD/t 30–32 27–29 27–29 0
Yuzhnyy–EC Mexico 25-30,000 mt 8,000c/3,000c 1 USD/t 32–34 30–32 30–32 0
Baltic–WC Mexico 25-30,000 mt 8,000c/4,000c 1 USD/t 40–42 40–42 42–44 2
Baltic–WC India 55-60,000 mt 8,000c/10,000x 1 USD/t 27–29 28–30 27–29 -1

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Urea 13 JULY 2023

Commodity/Type Unit 29 Jun 2023 06 Jul 2023 13 Jul 2023 W-on-W

Baltic–Brazil 25-30,000 mt 8,000c/5,000c 1 USD/t 19–21 19–21 19–21 0
Baltic–EC Mexico 25-30,000 mt 8,000c/3,000c 1 USD/t 25–27 25–27 26–28 1
Egypt–Turkey, 20-30,000 mt, 8,000c/3,000c USD/t 13–15 12–14 12–14 0
Egypt – France, 20-30,000 mt, 8,000c/3,000c USD/t 21–23 19–21 19–21 0
Algeria–US Gulf, 20-30,000 mt, 8,000c/10,000c USD/t 22–24 22–24 22–24 0
Middle East – Brazil, 40-50,000 mt, 6,000x/5,000c USD/t 16–18 15–17 15–17 0
Middle East–WC India 30-35,000 mt 6,000x/10,000x 1 USD/t 12–14 12–14 12–14 0
Middle East–Vietnam 30-35,000 mt 6,000x/2,500x 1 USD/t 22–24 22–24 22–24 0
China–US Gulf 50-55,000 mt 5,000c/10,000c1 USD/t 26–28 24–26 24–26 0
Middle East–Miss River, US 40-45,000 mt 6,000x/10,000c 1 USD/t 35–37 34–36 34–36 0
North China–EC India 60-65,000 mt 5,000c/10,000x 1 USD/t 11–13 11–13 11–13 0
(1) Dry bulk freights provided by Bery Maritime. Telephone: +47 2311 3500 Email: Chartering: [email protected] / Operations: opera [email protected]

crugroup.com PAGE 11 OF 12
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 Editor
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CONTRIBUTORS

CRU London CRU London CRU London CRU London CRU London

Jennifer Willis-Jones Christine Gregory Logan Collins Brendan Daly Lewis Walters
Senior Markets Editor, Senior Markets Editor, Senior Markets Editor, Senior Markets Editor, Market Reporter,
Nitrogen Nitrogen Phosphates Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid Nitrates and Sulphates
t +44 20 7903 2196 t +44 207 903 2135 t +44 20 7903 2020 t +44 20 7903 2185 t +44 20 7903 2173
e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected]

CRU Beijing CRU Beijing CRU Beijing CRU Mumbai CRU North America

Gavin Ju Ruming Yuan Sulli Liu Aditya Jain BK Morris

Principal Analyst, Nitrogen & Analyst, Phosphates China Fertilizer Market Analyst, Fertilizers Senior Markets Editor,
Potash Reporter Fertilizers
t +86 10 5082 8305 t +86 10 5082 8326 t +91 22 4504 5757 t +1 301 441 9091
e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected] e [email protected]

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to any other company, organisation or individual, nor be photocopied or otherwise reproduced in whole or in
part, without the prior written permission of CRU International

This report is delivered on the understanding that CRU International’s liability is limited to the provision
of the professional services outlined in the contract for this report. Although every effort has been made
to undertake this work with care and diligence, CRU International cannot guarantee the accuracy of any
forecasts or assumptions or that the proposed investment will be successful. If the client uses our work in any
information Memorandum or similar document for the purpose of raising funds, CRU International accepts no
liability to third parties however arising and without limitation.

© CRU International Ltd. 2023. All rights reserved

About CRU
CRU’s reputation with customers across mining, metals and
fertilizers is for integrity, reliability, independence and authority.
CRU’s insights are built on a twin commitment to quality primary
research and robust, transparent methodologies.

You can rely on our work – our data, our views, our models -
because we have built them ourselves, from the ground up,
since our foundation in 1969.

The requirement for exclusive, first-hand knowledge has driven

us to invest in a global team of analysts, the key to gaining a real
understanding of critical, hard-to-reach markets such as China.

CRU’s people - whether delivering market outlooks, price

assessments, cost analysis or consulting - focus on helping
customers to make important business decisions. Across a
comprehensive range of commodities, we strive to provide
customers with the best service and the closest contact -
flexible, personal and responsive.

CRU - big enough to deliver a high quality service, small

enough to care about all of our customers.