1/11/2022

Chapter 6: Engineering
Applications
Er Saugat Tiwari
Lecturer
PU, SOE

• 6.1: Introduction to frequency and probability concept:

• Frequency:
• For discrete random variable, the number of occurrences of variable is called
frequency.
• When frequency is plotted in ordinate against the variable in abscissa, a pattern
of distribution is called frequency distribution.
• Basic terms
• Population: The whole collection of values under consideration is called
population. it may be finite or infinite. it is the hypothetical set having constant
statistical properties.
• Sample: Sample is the set of observed values, more or less representative of the
population from which it is drawn. A set of observations of random variable is
called sample.
• Variable (X): The characteristics of sample is variable, e.g., depth of rainfall.
• Variate (x): The individual observation or the value of any variable is the
variate.

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• Random variable:
• The variable whose outcomes varies from trail to trail as the experiment is
repeated. It is of two types.
• Discrete random variable: Takes only finite numbers of values. e.g., Number
of storm / rainfalls.
• Continuous random variable: Takes infinite numbers of possible values. e.g.,
depth of rainfall.
• Recurrence Interval: Time interval in which an event can be expected to
occur once on the average.
• Probability concept:
• If n is the number of observations and the event we are looking for is the
outcome on m occasions, we define probability of the event.
• p= m/n, probability of success
• q= (n-m)/n = 1-p = probability of failure
• Thus p+q = 1

• 6.2 High and Low flow estimation, design flood and its estimation.
• Flood:
• Flood is the condition of inundating the area by water providing discomfort for
the living of people. Generally, the depth of water flowing in the river / stream
rises up, over topping the banks and spreads over the surrounding areas and
inundates.
• Causes of flood:
• Heavy rainfall with high intensity with cloud brust.
• Melting of snow and ice
• Breaching of dams / reservoirs / canals
• Ocean waves and tides
• Cyclones, Hurricanes, tsunami
• Deforestations / destruction of vegetations and plants.
• Steep terrains and low lands near rivers.

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• Flash Flood:
• A rapid and extreme flow of high water into a normally dry area, or a rapid
rise in a stream or creek above a predetermined flood level.
• Flash floods are also characterized by a rapid rise in water, high velocities, and
large amounts of debris.
• Estimate of high and low flow
• Is based on different methods related to
• By: Gauged station and ungauged station
• By: empirical methods.
• High flow is know by also from local .

• Design flood:
• It is the flood magnitude that is adopted for the design of hydraulic structures. The
design flood may be different for the different structures with respect to their safety,
economy, life expectancy and risk of chance of taking lives and properties.
Accordingly, design flood may be
• Spillway design flood: Design flood used for designing the spillway of the storage
structure, i.e., maximum discharge that can be passed in a hydraulic structure with out
any damage and threat to the stability of the structure.
• Probable maximum flood (PMF): It is the extreme maximum flood that can be
possible to occur in a region that may be the result from the most severe condition due
to the combination of meteorological and the hydrological factors. PMF is used in
situations where the failure of structure would result in loss of life and catastrophic/
terrible damage and such complete security from potential floods is sought.
• Standard project flood (SPF): Flood that would occur from the severe combination of
meteorological and hydrological factors that can be reasonably applicable to the region.
This flood is used for the area where the failure of structure would cause less severe
damage. Generally SPF is taken as 40 to 60% of the PMF.

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• Design flood is the flood discharge adopted for design of structural after careful
consideration of economic and hydrologic factors.
• Method of estimating design flood.
• Increasing the observed maximum flood by a certain percentage.
• For ungauged Basin
• Rational Method
• Empirical method
• For gauged basin
• Unit hydrograph technique
• Flood frequency analysis

• 6.3 Application of statistical and empirical methods of flood prediction:

• 6.3.1 Return period, frequency and risk.
• Return period is defined as the average interval of time T within which an event
of given magnitude will be equaled or exceeded at least once.
• The reciprocal of the return period is the exceedance probability of the event,
that is, the probability that the event is equaled or exceeded in any one year.
• Probability of occurrence or exceedance of an event once in T years of return
period (recurrence interval) is given by P = 1/T
• Probability of non-occurrence of event = q = 1-P = 1-1/T
• Probability of event not occurring at all in ‘n’ successive years = qn = (1-P) n =
(1-1/T) n
• Risk (R) is defined as the probability of occurrence of event at least once in ‘n’
successive years. So, R = 1-qn = 1- (1-1/T) n

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• 6.3.2 Empirical methods (Modified Dickens, Rational ), WECS/DHM , MIP

Method.
• Rational methods:
• Generally used for small size catchment having area less than 50 km2
• QP = (C i A) /3.6
• Where,
• QP = Peak flood discharge in m3/s
• C = Runoff coefficient: Ratio of runoff to rainfall. It depends on initial losses,
depression storage, nature of soil, surface slope, degree of saturation, rainfall
intensity, geology of basin . Value of c varies from 0 to 1.
• i = intensity of rainfall in mm/h for a duration equal to time of concentration and
an exceedance probability p.
• A = Area of catchment km2
• For area in hectares; QP = (C i A) / 360 m3/s

Types of Basin Value of C (Run of

coefficients) For non-homogenous basin, divide
Rocky and Permeable 0.8-1.0 into sub-basins, get c for each sub-
Slightly impermeable, bare 0.6-0.8 basin and compute weighted
Cultivated or covered with 0.4-0.6
vegetation
average.
𝐶𝑖 ∗𝐴𝑖
Cultivated absorbent soil 0.3-0.4 C=
𝐴
Sandy Soil 0.2-0.3 𝐾∗𝑇𝑎
Heavy forest 0.1-0.3 I= 𝑛
𝑡𝑐 +𝑏
T = Return period = 1/9 where
Where, L is maximum length of travel of
water in m and p=probability of exceedence
S is the slope equal to H/L Tc =time of concentration
Limitations: tc= 0.019478 * L0.77 * S -0.385
Applicable to small basin.
Duration of rainfall intensity >tc
Gives only peak, does not give complete
hydrographs
C assumed to be same for all storms

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• Empirical methods: Such methods are used by using the empirical equations /
formulas developed by different hydrologists, scientists or researchers.
• Modified Dicken’s formula; QT = CT A 0.75
• where, CT = 2.342 log (0.6T) log (1185/P) + 4
• P = 100 (a+6)/ (A+a).
• A= total basin area in sq.m
• Where a = perpetual / everlasting snow area in sq.km.
• T is the return period in years.
• Inglis formula;
• QP = 124 A / √( A + 10.40)
• Where, A = Catchment area in sq.km
• Horton’s formula:
• It is used to find the flow discharge qT per unit of area expected in T years is given
by
• qT = 71.2 [T 0.25/ A 0.50] where, A = catchment area in sq.km

• WECS method: WECS developed the empirical relation for the flood
prediction of different return periods.
• QT = exp (ln Q2 + S. σ)
• where, Flood of 2 years return period, Q2 = 1.8767 (A 3000 +1) 0.8783
• A 3000 = area of catchment lying below 3000m elevation in sq.km.
• Standard deviation, σ = ln (Q100/Q2) / 2.326
• Flood of 100 years return period, Q100 = 14.63 (A 3000+1) 0.7342
• S = Standard normal variate with respect to the return period of T years from
the table is calculated.
Return period T years S
2 0
5 0.842
10 1.282
25 1.645
50 2.054
100 2.326

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• MIP Method: This method was developed by M. MacDonald in 1982.

Accordingly, Nepal is divided into 7 hydrological regions. in this method the
lowest discharge is measured for the April and will be the basis for the
measurement of other months.
• Monthly flow for any month = April flow x coefficient of particular month
• Q April = Qm x 1 / Coefficient of particular month
• Qm = Measured discharge
• Q for any month = Q April x coefficient of that month.
Months April May June July August September October November December January February March
Regions with their coefficients

1 1.0 2.6 6.0 14.50 25.0 16.50 8.00 4.10 3.10 2.40 1.80 1.30
2 1.0 1.21 7.25 18.18 27.27 20.19 9.09 3.94 3.03 2.24 1.70 1.33
3 1.0 1.88 3.13 13.54 25.0 20.83 10.42 5.0 3.75 2.71 1.88 1.38
4 1.0 2.19 3.75 6.89 27.27 20.91 6.89 5.0 3.44 2.59 1.88 1.38
5 1.0 0.91 2.73 11.21 13.94 10.00 6.52 4.55 3.33 2.42 1.82 1.36
6 1.0 2.57 6.08 24.32 33.78 27.03 6.08 3.38 2.57 2.03 1.62 1.27
7 1.0 3.50 6.0 14.0 35.0 24.00 12.0 7.50 5.00 3.30 2.20 1.40

• WECS/ DHM / (Hydest) method:

• This method is developed to predict flow discharge for ungauged rivers having
catchment area greater than 100 km2 lies in between elevation of 5000 to
3000m, which is based on hydrological theories, empirical equations and
statistics.
• The average monthly flow can be calculated by;
• Q mean monthly = C x (Area of basin) A1 x (Area below 5000m +1) A2 x
(Mean monsoon Ppt.) A3
Month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

C 0.01423 0.01219 0.009988 0.007974 0.008434 0.006943 0.02123 0.02548 0.01677 0.009724 0.00176 0.001485

A1 0 0 0 0 0 0.9968 0 0 0 0 0.9605 0.9536

A2 0.9777 0.9766 0.9948 1.0435 1.0898 0 1.0093 0.9963 0.9894 0.9880 0 0

A3 0 0 0 0 0 0.2610 0.2523 0.2620 0.2878 0.2508 0.3910 0.3607

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• 6.3.3 Flood- Frequency studies (Gumbel’s Extreme Value Type I, Log

Pearson Type III and Log Normal)
• Continuous probability distribution
• Flood frequency analyses are used to predict design floods for sites along a
river.
• The technique involves using observed annual peak flow discharge data to
calculate statistical information such as mean values, standard deviations,
skewness (Skewness refers to a distortion or asymmetry that deviates from the
symmetrical bell curve, or normal distribution, in a set of data. If the curve is
shifted to the left or to the right, it is said to be skewed), and recurrence
intervals.
• These statistical data are then used to construct frequency distributions, which
are graphs and tables that tell the likelihood of various discharges as a function
of recurrence interval or exceedance probability.

• Normal distribution:
• The normal distribution is probably the most important distribution in all of
probability and statistics.
• if the sequence of the random variables Xi is independently and identically
distributed with mean of μ and variance σ2 having skewness coefficient close to
zero, then the Probability distribution function of the distribution is given by
• A continuous random variable X is said to have a normal distribution with
parameters µ and σ > 0 (or µ and σ 2) having skewness coefficient close to zero,
then the probability distribution function pdf of X is given by
1 𝒙 −μ 𝟐
• f(x) = exp − ; -∞ < 𝑥 < ∞
σ √૛࣊ 𝟐σ 𝟐
• where, μ = Population means.
• σ = Population standard deviation

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• Log normal distribution

• If the random variable Y = log X is normally distributed, then X is said to be
log normally distributed.
• The PDF of Lognormal distribution is given by
1 𝒚 −μ y 𝟐
• f(x) = exp − ;
x∗σ √૛࣊ 𝟐σ𝒚𝟐
• where,
• y = log x, x > 0
• μy and σy = sample mean and standard deviation of y.

• Pearson type III distribution and Log-Pearson type III distribution

• If x follows the Pearson type III distribution, then x is said to follow Pearson type III distribution. the PDF of
PIII distribution is given by
• f(x) = [λβ (x-ɛ) β-1 e -λ(x-ɛ)] / 𝚪(𝜷); x > ɛ Where,
• λ = Sx / Γ(𝛽)
• β = (2 / Cs)2
• ɛ (Parameter constant ) = xm - Sx√𝜷
• Similarly, if y = log x;
• log x > ɛ which follows Pearson type III distribution,
• then x is said to follow
• log-Pearson III distribution and PDF of LPIII distribution is given by
• f(x) = [λβ (y-ɛ) β-1 e -λ(y-ɛ)] / x 𝚪(𝜷)
• ;y≥ɛ
• λ = Sy / √(𝛽)
• β = (2 / Csy)2
• ɛ = ym – Sy√𝜷
•

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• Gumbel Distribution:
• The PDF of Gumbel distribution is given by
• f(x) = 1/α exp [- ((x-μ)/α)- exp { - ((x-μ)/α)}] ; -∞ < 𝑥 < ∞
• where, α = √(𝟔 Sx) / π
• And μ = xm – 0.5772α
• Frequency factor:
• Using frequency distribution function hydrologic events with respect to return
period can be calculated by using the relation given by Chow 1951 as;
• XT = Xm + K . σ
• Where, XT = value of the variate X of random hydrologic series with return
period of T years.
• Xm = mean of the variates σ = Standard deviation
• K = frequency factor

• Gumbel’s extreme value distribution:

• Using the probability distribution function introduced by Gumbel for the extreme
values of events related to flood peaks, maximum rainfall, maximum wind speed etc.
can be predicted called Gumbel’s distribution. According to him, the probability of
occurrence of an event equal to or greater than a value X0 is
• P (X ≥X0) = 1- e -e ^ -y ….. (i)
• where, y is the dimension less variable given by
• y = α (x -a) ….(ii)
• α = 1.2825/ σ x
• a = xm – 0.45005 σ x
• putting the values of α and a in equation (ii)
• then, y = 1.2825 (x - xm) / σx + 0.577…..(iii)
• where, xm = mean of variate x.
• σx = standard deviation of variate x .

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• again from (i) 1-P = e -e ^ -y

• taking ln on both sides ln(1-P) = ln(e -e ^ -y)
• ln(1-P) = -e-y. ln e
• -ln (1-P) = e-y
• again, taking ln on both side ln (-ln (1-P) ) = ln e-y
• -ln ln (1-P) = -y . lne
• y = -ln (-ln(1-P) )
• y = -ln (-ln(1-1/T) )
• y = -ln (-ln(T-1/T) )
• y = -ln ln (T/T-1)
• yT = - [ln ln (T/(T-1)]

• from equation (iii)

• yT = 1.2825 (xT - xm) / σx+ 0.577
• yT – 0.577 = 1.2825 (xT - xm) / σx
• XT = Xm + [(yT – 0.577) / 1.2825]. σx
• where, K = frequency factor and is given by
• XT = Xm + K. σx
• K = (yT – yn) / Sn
• for N →∞, yn = 0.577 and
• Sn = 1.2825 when N is small and finite
• then, K = (yT – yn) / Sn
• where, yn and Sn are the reduced mean and reduced standard deviation
respectively for the sample size of N given by Gumbel in the tabular format.

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𝑌𝑡 −0.577
• K=
1.2825
• Table for reduced standard deviation and reduced mean can be used for any
number. For large n, frequency factor as given by chow is:
𝑇
• K = - 0.45 + 0.75 ln( )
𝑇−1
• Steps:
• Assemble the discharge data. Note the sample size N and find Xm and σn
• Using the table find Ym(n) and Sn
• Find Yt for given T by equation
• Find K by equation
• Determine required Xt.( Value of the variate x of the random hydrologic series
with a return period T)

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• Gumbel’s probability paper:

• Similar to the plotting position method in which hydraulic event such as
discharge X is plotted in ordinate direction and Recurrence interval T or
reduced variate yT in abscissa.
• yT values from -2 to 7 in x-axis in arithmetic scale as shown in figure.
yT -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

T 1 1.1 1.6 3.2 7.9 20.6 55.1 149 403.9 1097

• for the selected values of T = 2,10,50,100,500 and 1000 years, yT is

determined by using formula
• yT = -ln ln [T/(T-1)]

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• Confidence limit:
• With the use of limited sample data, the value of any hydrological events XT
with respect to given return period T calculated by Gumbel’s method does not
provide accurate value. But with the help of confidence probability C, the
confidence interval of the variate XT can be bounded by values X1 and X2. i.e
the event may occur with in upper limit of X1and the lower limit of X2 is given
by
• X1,2 = XT ± f(c). Se
• Upper limit of boundary value X1 = XT + f(c). Se
• lower limit of the boundary value X2 = XT - f(c). Se
• where, f (c) = function of confidence probability C determined by using the
table of normal variate given below
Confidence
% c 50 68 80 90 95 99

f (c) 0.674 1.00 1.282 1.645 1.96 2.58

• Se = Probable error = b. [ σx / √𝑵]

• b = √(𝟏 + 𝟏. 𝟑𝑲 + 𝟏. 𝟏𝑲૛)
• σx = Standard deviation of the sample
• N = Sample size.
• Log Pearson type III distribution:
• This distribution is used in USA for predicting the maximum annual floods. the
variates are transformed into logarithmic base 10.
• i.e. values of all the variates X of random hydrological series of data is
transformed to Z series as
• Z = log X
• the recurrence interval T for Z series ZT is given by
• ZT = Zm + KT. σz
• the skewness coefficient Cs is calculated by formula

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𝑵 ∑(ࢆ−ࢆ࢓)𝟑
• Cs =
(‫ۼ‬−𝟏)(‫ۼ‬−૛)ો‫𝟑ܢ‬
• σz= standard deviation

• value of ZT is calculated using the above relation of

• ZT = Zm + KT . σz
• and XT = antilog ZT = 10 ZT
• if Table is not given; Find probability of exceedance p = 1/T
1
•W= ln( 2)
𝑝

• y = w- [(2.51557+0.80285w + 0.010328w2)/ (1+1.432788w+0.189269w2 +

0.001308 w3)]
• KT = y + (y2-1). (Cs/6) + (y3-6y). (Cs/6)2/3 – (y2-1) (Cs/6)3 + y (Cs/6)4 +
1/3(Cs/6)5
• ZT = Zm + KT. σz
• XT = antilog ZT = 10ZT
• For log normal type distribution; skewness coefficient Cs = 0 ; KT = y
• ZT = Zm + KT .
• σz = Zm + y. σz
• XT = antilog ZT

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• Numerical 1:
• A flood of 800m3/s in a certain river has a return period of 20years.
• What is its probability of exceedance?
• What is the probability of occurrence of flood less than that flood magnitude of
800m3/s?
• What is the chance of occurrence of flood greater than or equal of that size in next 5
years?
• Solution:
• Return period of the flood = T = 20 years
• Probability of occurrence / exceedence of flood = P= 1/T = 1/20 = 0.05
• Probability of non-occurrence or less than that magnitude of flood = q = 1-P = 1-
0.05= 0.95
• Chance of flood of that size in next 5 years i.e at least once in n=5 years = Risk = 1-
qn
• R = 1- 0.95 5 = 0.2262
• R = 22.62%

• Numerical 2: A water resource project has an expected life of 20years.

• A)for a acceptable risk of 5% against the design flood , what design return
period is to be adopted?
• B) if the above return period is adopted and the life of the structure is enhanced
to 50 years, what is the new risk value?
• Solution;
• Expected life of project = n = 20 years Risk = R = 5% = 0.05
• for a)
• we know; Risk = R = 1-qn = 1- (1-P)n = 1- (1-1/T)n where, T = return
period , P = probability of occurrence, q = probability of non-occurrence of
event.
• then, R = 1- (1-1/T)n
• 0.05 = 1- (1- 1/T) 20 ⸫ T = 390.41 = 390 years (say).

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• B) if T = 390 years, n = 50 years New Risk = R2=?

• Probability of occurrence of flood P = 1/T = 1/390 = 0.00256 = 0.0026 say
• Probability of non-occurrence = q = 1-P = 1-0.0026 = 0.9974
• New Risk = R2 = 1- qn = 1- 0.997450 = 0.1220 = 12.2%
• OR
• R2= 1-(1-1/T)n = 1- (1-1/390)50 = 0.122= 12.2%
•

• Numerical 3: A spillway has a design life of 20 years. Estimate the required

return period of a flood if the acceptable risk of the failure of the spillway is
10%.
• A)In any year
• B)Over its design life.
• Solution;
• Risk = R = 10% = 0.10
• For in any year n = 1 year ; Return period = T = ? then, Risk = 1- (1-1/T) n
• put the above value of n = 1year and R = 0.10; on solving
• T = 10 years.
• For over the design life, n = 20 years ; T = ?
• R = 0.10
• on solving ; T = 189 years

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• Numerical 4: A hydraulic structure on a stream has been designed for a

discharge of 350m3/s. If the available flood data on the stream is for 20 years
and the mean and standard deviations for annual flood series are 121 and 60
m3/s respectively. Calculate the return period for the design flood by Gumbel’s
method.
• Solution;
• Designed flood for T years = XT = 350m3/s N = 20 years
• Mean flood: Xm = 121m3/s
• Standard deviation of flood σX = 60m3/s Return period T = ?
• Using Gumbel’s equation XT = Xm + K . σX
• XT = Xm + [(yT – yn)/Sn. ] σX
• From Gumbel’s table:
• for N = 20 years; yn = 0.5236 and Sn = 1.0628 Then, 350 = 121 + [(yT –
0.5236)/1.0628] 60
• on solving yT = 4.57995 = 4.58 say.

• again, yT = - ln ln ( T/T-1)
• 4.58 = - ln ln ( T/T-1) on solving; T / T-1 = 1.0103
• ⸫ T = 1.0103/ 0.0103 = 98.088 = 98 years.
• Numerical 5: For a river, the estimated flood peaks for two return periods by
the use of Gumbel’s method are as follows:
Return periods years T Peak flood m3/s XT
100 435
50 395
1000 ?
What flood discharge in this river will have a return period of 1000 years?
• Solution;
• for T = 100 years, Discharge XT = X100 = 435m3/s for
• T = 50 years, Discharge XT = X 50= 395m3/s
• We have Gumbel’s formula; XT = Xm + K . σx

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• where, K = (yT – yn )/ Sn
• and yT = -ln ln (T/T-1)
• for T = 100 years, yT = y100 = - ln ln [( 100/(100-1)] = 4.60
• X 100 = Xm + [(y100 – yn ) . σx/ Sn
• 435 = Xm + (4.60-yn) . σx / Sn ……. (i)
• Again , for T = 50 years, y50 = -lnln (50/49) = 3.91
• X50 = Xm + (y50-yn). σx / Sn
• 395 = Xm + (3.91-yn). σx / Sn …….(ii)
• Subtracting equation (ii) from (i) then,
• 40 = (4.60 – 3.91 ). σx / Sn
• ⸫ σx / Sn = (40/0.69) = 57.97
•

• For T = 1000 years ;

• y1000 = -ln ln (1000/999) = 6.91
• X1000 = Xm + (6.91-yn ) σx / Sn (iii)
• Subtracting ii from iii
• then, X1000 – 395 = (6.91 – 3.91) x σx / Sn
• ⸫ X 1000 = 395 + (3 x 57.97) = 568.91 ≈ 569.0 m3/s

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• Numerical 6: From the following table, the annual flood values were observed
for a river. Estimate the peak discharge of flood with the return periods of 50,
100 and 1000 years using :
Year 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
Discharge 340 420 150 300 250 185 190 440 355
Year 86 87 88 89 1990
Discharge 275 235 355 195 200

• Gumbel’s extreme value distribution.

• Log Pearson type III distribution
• Log – normal distribution

Year Flood (X) (X-Xm)2 Z= Log X (z-zm)2 (z-zm)3

m3/s
1977 340 3025 2.53 0.010 0.001
78 420 18225 2.62 0.036 0.007
79 150 18225 2.17 0.068 0.018
80 300 225 2.48 0.002 0.000
81 250 1225 2.40 0.001 0.000
82 185 10000 2.27 0.026 0.004
83 190 9025 2.28 0.023 0.003
84 440 24025 2.64 0.044 0.009
85 455 28900 2.66 0.053 0.012
86 275 100 2.44 0.000 0.000
87 235 2500 2.37 0.004 0.000
88 355 4900 2.55 0.014 0.002
89 195 8100 2.29 0.001 0.003
1990 200 7225 2.30 0.017 0.002
N= 14 ∑(𝑿 −𝑿࢓)૛ ∑(𝒍𝒐𝒈𝑿) ∑(𝒛 − 𝒛࢓)૛ ∑(z-zm)3
= 1,35,700
∑𝑿 3990 = 34.00 = 0.309 = 0.061

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• Numerical 7: The following data provided shows the flood statistics of two
rivers in Nepal.
Length of records Mean annual flood Standard deviation of flood
S.No. River
N Xm σx
1 Bagmati 32 6000 m3/s 2000m3/s
2 Sunkoshi 33 12000 m3/s 3500m3/s

• Estimate the 100- and 1000-year floods for these two rivers using Gumbel’s method.
• What are the 80% and 95% confidence interval for the predicted values?
• Solution;
• From Gumbel’s table
• for N = 32; Reduced mean variate = yn = 0.5380 and reduced standard
deviation Sn = 1.1193
• for N = 33; Reduced mean variate = yn = 0.5388 and reduced standard
deviation Sn = 1.1226

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Return Mean Standard yT

River yn K= XT
period flood deviation = -ln ln Sn
[yT-yn ]/sn = Xm +K σx
T Xm σx (T/T-1)

Bagmati
100 6000 2000 4.60 0.5380 1.1193 3.629 13258 m3/s

N = 32 1000 6000 2000 6.907 0.5380 1.1193 5.69 17380m3/s

Sunkoshi 100 12000 3500 4.60 0.5388 1.1226 3.617 24659.5m3/s

N=33 1000 12000 3500 6.907 0.5388 1.1226 5.673 31855.50m3/s

Flood value XT calculated above has probability of confidence limit % lying in

between the upper and lower value X1 and X2 is estimated by X1 / X2 = XT ± f(c) .
Se

80% 90%
f(c)= 1.282 f(c)= 1.645

XT b=
T Frequency Se =
River √(𝟏 +
(b. σx ) /
years factor = K 𝟏. 𝟑𝑲 +
√𝑵)
X1 = X2 = X1 = X2 =
m3/s
𝟏. 𝟏𝑲૛ ) XT + XT - XT + XT -

f(c) Se. f(c) Se. f(c) Se. f(c) Se.

Bagmati 100 13258 3.629 4.495 1589.22 15295.48 11220.72 15872.37 10643.83

1000 17380 5.69 6.634 2345.47 20387.21 14373.43 21238.62 13528.02

Sunkoshi 100 24659.5 3.617 4.484 2731.97 28164.24 21159.46 29155.94 20167.76

1000 31855.50 5.673 6.616 4030.94 37022.20 26686.86 38485.43 25223.64

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End of Chapter 6

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