.

PROBABILITY
 C O N C E P T O F P R O B A B ILT Y
 The concept of probability developed in a
very strange manner .In 1654,a gambler
chevalier de mere ,approached the well –
known 17th century French philosopher &
mathematician Blaise Pascal regarding
certain dice problems . Pascal became
interested in these problems , studied them
and discussed them with another French
mathematician , Pierre de Fermat . Both
Pascal & Fermat solved the problems
independently . This work was the
beginning of probability Theory
 Probability Theory
 Probability theory  is the branch


of mathematics concerned with analysis

of random phenomena. The central objects of
probability theory are random
variables, stochastic processes, and events:
mathematical abstractions of non-
deterministic events or measured
quantities that may either be single
occurrences or evolve over time in an
apparently random fashion. Although an
individual coin toss or the roll of
a die is a random event, if repeated many
times the sequence of random events will
exhibit certain statistical patterns, which
can be studied and predicted. Two
representative mathematical results
describing such patterns are the law of
large numbers and the central limit
theorem.
 PROBABIBALITY
INVENTERS
Blaise Pascal
 Pierre de Fermat

 Blaise Pascal

 Blaise Pascal (French pronunciation:  (b.

1623-06-19 in Clermont-Ferrand, France, d.
1662-08-19 in Paris) was a French
mathematician, physicist,
and religious philosopher. He was a child
prodigy who was educated by his father,
a civil servant. Pascal's earliest work was in
the natural and applied sciences where he
made important contributions to the
construction of mechanical calculators, the
probability the study of fluids, and clarified
the concepts of pressure and vacuum by
generalizing the work of Evangelista
Torricelli. Pascal also wrote in defense of the
 Pierre de Fermat

 Pierre de Fermat   17 August 1601 or

1607 / 8  – 12 January 1665 ) was a
French lawyer at the Parliament
of Toulouse , France , and an amateur
mathematician who is given credit for
early developments that led to
modern calculus . In particular , he is
recognized for his discovery of an
original method of finding the greatest
and the smallest ordinates of curved lines ,
which is analogous to that of the then
unknown differential calculus , as well as
his research into the theory of numbers . He
made notable contributions to analytic
geometry ,  probability , and optics . He is
best known for Fermat's Last Theorem , which
he described in a note at the margin of a
 Probability Rules
 1 . The probability of an event A
occurring is the number of
outcomes that result in A
divided by the total number of
possible outcomes .
2 . The probability of an event
occurring plus the probability
of the event not occurring
equals 1 .
3 . The probability of event A
AND event B occurring is the
probability of event A times the
probability of event B given
that event A has already
occurred .
 4. The probability of event A OR event
B occurring is the probability of
event A occurring plus the probability
of event B occurring minus the
probability of both events occurring .
 The probability of an event A occurring
is the number of outcomes that result
in A divided by the total number of
possible outcomes .
 Example: Raphael tosses a fair coin. What is the
probability the coin will come up heads?

Probability of heads = [heads]/[heads, tails]

Probability of heads = 1/2

Example: Tom rolls a fair die. What is the

probability that the die will roll an even number?

Probability of even number = [2, 4, 6]/[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Probability of even number = 3/6
Probability of even number = ½
 Rule #2
 The probability of an event occurring plus
the probability of the event not
occurring equals 1.
In other words, we can say with 100% certainty
that an event will either occur or not occur. For
instance, the probability of a fair, six-sided die
rolling a 4 is 1/6. The probability of the die not
landing on 4 is (1 - 1/6) or 5/6. 1/6 + 5/6 = 1.
This concept can be very helpful on the GMAT.
Sometimes it is easier to determine the
probability of an event not occurring than
determining the probability of an event occurring.
Once your know the probability of an event not
occurring, you can subtract the probability from 1
to find the probability of an event occurring.

 Rule #3
 The probability of event A AND event B
occurring is the probability of event A
times the probability of event B given
that event A has already occurred.
Example: Joseph rolls two fair, six-sided
die. What is the probability that both
die will roll a 6?
Probability of 1st die coming up 6: 1/6
Probability of 2nd die coming up 6: 1/6
Probability of both die coming up 6: (1/6) *
(1/6)
Probability of both die coming up 6: 1/36
 Rule #4

 The probability of event A OR event B

occurring is the probability of event A
occurring plus the probability of event B
occurring minus the probability of both
events occurring.
Example: Charles rolls a fair, six-sided die.
What is the probability of Charles rolling a
2 or a 4?
Probability of 2: 1/6
Probability of 4: 1/6
Probability of a 2 or 4: 1/6 + 1/6
Probability of a 2 or 4: 2/6
Probability of a 2 or 4: 1/3
 SOLVED QUESTIONS


A certain deck of cards contains 2 blue cards,

2 red cards, 2 yellow cards, and 2 green
cards. If two cards are randomly drawn from
the deck, what is the probability that they
will both are not blue?
 
  A. 15/28
  B. 1/4
  C. 9/16
  D. 1/32
  E. 1/16
 ANS B 1/4
  Which of these numbers cannot be a
probability? 

1. 0.5 
2.1.001 
3.0 
4. 1 
ANS 2 1.001
A probability is always greater than or equal
to 0 and less than or equal to 1, hence
2) above cannot represent probabilities
1.001 is greater than 1. 
 Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the
probability that the sum is 
a) equal to 1 
b) equal to 4 
c) less than 13
 Solution to Question 4: 

 a) The sample space S of two dice is shown below. 

S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6) 
         (2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6) 
         (3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6) 
         (4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6) 
         (5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6) 
         (6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) } 
 Let E be the event "sum equal to 1". There are no
outcomes which correspond to a sum equal to 1,
hence 
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0 


 b) Three possible ouctcomes give a sum equal to 4:
E = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}, hence. 
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12 

 c) All possible ouctcomes, E = S, give a sum less

than 13, hence. 
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1 


 A die is rolled, find the probability that an even
number is obtained.
 Solution to Question 1: 

 Let us first write the sample space S of the

experiment. 
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} 

 Let E be the event "an even number is obtained"

and write it down. 
E = {2,4,6} 

 We now use the formula of

the classical probability. 
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 6 = 1 / 2 ans
 .

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