ME5521 Chapter1 1 2011
ME5521 Chapter1 1 2011
5
http://www.doe.gov/energysources/renewables.htm
US Department of Energy
http://www.sandia.gov/Renewable_Energy/renewable.htm
Sandia National Laboratories: Renewable Energy Technologies Division
http://www.ewea.org/
The European Wind Energy Association
http://www.biomassuk.com/
Biomass UK is able to provide innovative biomass solutions
http://www.retscreen.net/
NRCAN – RETScreen: Clean Energy Project Analysis Software
http://www.bwea.com/
The British Wind Energy Association
http://www.res-group.com/
Renewable Energy Systems (RES) developers
http://www.british-hydro.org/
British Hydropower Association
http://www.uk-energy-saving.com/
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/magazine/
10
Renewable Energy Technologies
• Renewable energy describes power generated from natural
sources that are constantly replenished
• It is energy generated from solar, wind, biomass, hydropower,
geothermal, and ocean resources, and biofuels and hydrogen
derived from renewable resources
• Renewable energy technologies turn these fuels into usable
forms of energy—most often electricity, but also heat, chemicals,
or mechanical power
(Primary energy)
*Primary energy is energy that has not been subjected to any conversion or transformation process.
Primary energy includes renewable energy and non-renewable energy 11
Why is the energy business important?
THE ENERGY INDUSTRIES’ CONTRIBUTION TO
THE UK ECONOMY (UK Energy in Brief, 2010 - DECC)
3.7% of GDP (Expenditure measure: This is the value of the goods and services purchased
by households and by government. Output measure: This is the value of the goods and services produced
by all sectors of the economy: agriculture, manufacturing, energy, construction, the service sector and
government . Income measure: The value of the income generated mostly in terms of profits and wages)
13
• Meeting the increase in demand for energy will pose a major
supply challenge and lead to an important increase in carbon
emissions
• Renewable energy can help to fill the gap…
• Renewable sources of energy are effective alternatives to fossil fuels
and can meet our energy requirements without disturbance of the
balance in the environment (reduce greenhouse gas emissions)
Outline
Wind onshore Solar Hydro Biomass
14
GDP:GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (BASED ON PURCHASING POWER PARITY)
• Sustained global economic growth, along with population expand (8 billions in 2030),
will drive the overall increase in the demand for energy over the next 25 years. China,
and to a lesser extent India, will see especially dramatic increases in energy
consumption 15
Global Energy Demand – By Fuel and Sector
• Oil, natural gas and coal are indispensable to meeting this energy demand, even with
rapid growth in renewables
• Global energy demand from all sources expressed in million barrels per day of oil
equivalent (MBDOE) is expected to increase 1.3% per year on average from 2005 to
2030
• Transportation and Power generation sectors will experience considerable growth
through 2030.
• Total oil demand will increase from roughly 84 million barrels per day
in 2010 to more than 100 million barrels in 2030, an increase almost as
large as OPEC's current production 17
UK energy consumption by fuel type, 1980 to 2010
In 2008
transport fuels
increased their
share of
overall oil
demand when
compared with
1980
Transportation
is the fastest
growing sector
and the one
most
important to
oil demand
20
Gas demand mainly driven by power generation, the
fastest-growing energy demand segment
• Gas and coal are the main fuels used for power generation
TWh=1012 Wh
22
UK, Coal consumption, 1980 to 2008
• Coal consumption as a
whole declined sharply
during the 1990s, at an
average annual rate of 6%
• Between 1999 and 2006 coal
consumption grew by nearly
3% per year on average but in
2008 it fell back by 8%
because of lower coal
demand in power stations, as
the gap between gas and coal
prices narrowed
23
UK, Electricity supplied by fuel type, 1980 to 2008
• Since 1990, the decline of coal and oil and the rise of gas in electricity
generation have been the most marked features
• Gas rose most markedly over this period from 1.6 TWh in 1980 to 173.5
TWh in 2008
24
Global Power Generation Demand
• The total power generation is expected to grow by about 1% and 2.2% per year
to 2030 for OECD and non-OECD. The contribution from coal is expected to
decline from 40% to 30% for OECD and rise to 50% for non-OECD
• Nuclear, gas and renewable will each gain a considerable share of the mix.
Renewable fuels will grow most rapidly
• Coal will remain the largest source of power. Even with growth of only about 1%
per year, its share of global power generation fuels will be 40% in 2030 and will
have significant implications on overall CO2 emissions
25
Global Transportation Demand
• The OECD total is moving towards a plateau, with an overall growth rate of 0.6%
per year during 2005-2030
• The demand in the non-OECD countries will be five times faster than the OECD
overall: 3 % per year. All sectors will increase significantly, reflecting strong
economic growth and rising incomes
• Heavy duty vehicles lead demand growth. Globally, heavy duty demand will rise
by more than 60% through 2030.
26
Global Residential / Commercial Demand
• Total OECD residential/commercial demand is expected to stay constant,
with energy efficiency gains helping offset the impact of a modest
increase in total population
• Total non-OECD residential/commercial demand is expected to rise
close to 1.0% per year
27
Oil Reserves and Resources
• Proved oil reserves cover around 40 years of today’s demand and are
strongly concentrated in Middle East
•2007 Oil Reserves stand at 1237.9 Billion barrels. Reserves have grown
by 14% over the last decade * Unconventional oil is petroleum that is more difficult or less
economical to extract
28
The production growth challenge
• Mostly because of growth in the transportation sector, global demand for crude
oil will rise by more than 20% from 2005 to 2030
for liquid fuels * Liquid fuels provide a large quantity of energy in small
volumes, making them easy to transport and widely available
30
Gas reserves and resources are more widely
spread
• The world’s proved conventional gas reserves are equivalent to 60.3 years of
2007’s demand (BP)
• 2007 gas reserves stand at 177.36 trillion-m3. Reserves have grown by 21% over
the last decade http://www.naturalgas.org/overview/unconvent_ng_resource.asp 31
Abundant coal reserves
33
A long transition period in energy supply: 80% of the
energy mix still derived from fossil fuels in 2030
34
Greenhouse gas emissions: a critical challenge for
sustainable growth
• Demand growth and fuel mix will lead to increased CO2 emissions
42Gt − 34Gt
100% = 19%
42Gt
•Electricity: In UK, the CO2 emission factor used is 0.527 kg/kWh [DEFRA]
•The CO2 generated by burning natural gas is 0.185 kg/kWh [DEFRA]
36
Global CO2 Emissions
• Energy-related CO2 emissions in the OECD are anticipated to be almost constant
37
Global CO2 Emissions
• Energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to increase globally
at about 1.2% per year to 2030, reaching an annual level of 37
billion tonnes (even with aggressive assumptions for energy
intensity improvements)
• Global NOx
emissions are
increasing, driven by
rising demand for
energy and
transportation
Satellite observations of
tropospheric* NO2, 2006.
* The troposphere is the lowest portion
(layer) of Earth's atmosphere in which all
"weather" occurs
• The human activity is the main driver in increasing greenhouse gas (CO2, CH4)
emissions and concentrations by burning fossil fuels (oil/petroleum, coal, natural
gas)
• And very likely responsible for the observed rise in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century (the Earth’s climate has warmed by about 0.5°C)
42
Environmental impact of energy use
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai,
K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
© Dan R. Anderson, UW-Madison (SOA,CAS,CIA 2008)
44
Environmental impact of energy use: Earth's energy balance
• Earth constantly absorbs energy from the sun and radiates energy back
to space
Source: Courtesy Jared T. Williams. © Dan Schrag, Harvard University Retention of solar radiation
• The greenhouse gases inhibit the heat loss from the Earth's surface
45
Environmental impact of energy use
• The abundances of several long-lived greenhouse gases lead to a change in the
radiative balance of Earth’s atmosphere
• Radiative forcing is the change in net irradiance at the troposphere (the
difference between the incoming radiation energy and the outgoing radiation
energy), measured in W/m2
• Increases in ozone occur near the surface as a result of pollution from human
activities
Source: Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met. Office Hadley Centre
Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Haris, S.F.B. Tett and P.D. Jones, 2006
Arctic sea ice coverage, 1979 and 2003 Arctic sea ice communities
© National Aeronautic and Space Administration
• Global climate change is shrinking Arctic sea ice coverage. According to NASA,
Arctic perennial sea ice has been shrinking by 9% per decade since the 1970
• Melting on this scale poses a serious threat not only to the microorganisms that
live in Arctic sea ice, but also to the many larger species that are part of Arctic
marine ecosystems 49
• Melting water streams from iceberg calved from
Ilulissat Kangerlua Glacier in 2006
Guardian (“global warming”, “climate breakdown“, ”climate change” or “global heating”) - Photograph: Paul Souders/Corbis
50
• The Petermann Glacier, located 1000 km south of the North Pole has
shrunk by about one quarter with the detachment of the iceberg, which
measured four times the size of Manhattan Island
Disappearance of
Lake Chad in Africa
Images provided by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
52
Recovery of Global Ozone
• Both CFC and ozone levels are showing signs of levelling off and some CFCs
have even started to decrease
•As a result, the world's fragile ozone layer is predicted to gradually return to its
original state by 2050 53
UK, Greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions, 1990 to 2008
• Greenhouse gas
emissions fell by 19%
between 1990 and 2008
• Emissions of CO2 fell by
10.3% between 1990 and
2008
• CO2 is the main
greenhouse gas,
accounting for around
85% of all emissions in
2008
54
UK, nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions
• Reducing emissions of NOx pollutants is important because of the effects they
have on human health and natural ecosystems
• Emissions covered by the EU National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD) :
• Total nitrogen oxides emissions fell by 45% between 1990 and 2005 from
3.0 to 1.6 million tonnes
• Road transport is the largest source of emissions of nitrogen oxides
accounting for 42% of the total in 2005 55
UK, sulphur dioxide emissions
• Total emissions of sulphur dioxide fell by 81% between 1990 and 2005
from 3.7 to 0.7 million tonnes
• The main source of emissions is coal use in power stations and other
industries
56
UK, NMVOC emissions
60
Combustion process – CO2 Capture techniques
* Gasification technology is a thermal process (partial oxidation) that use high temperatures to break down solid fuels
66
Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2008
67
Growth in electricity generation from renewable sources since 1990
• Renewables accounted for
5.5% of electricity generated in
the UK in 2008, and for 5.4% of
UK electricity sales on a
Renewables Obligation (RO)
basis
Renewables support in UK
68
EU, Renewable energy technology & region, June 2008