EIA Assignment
EIA Assignment
INSTITUET OF TECHNOLOGY
Kalkidan Misrak…….0561/11
Submitted to Mr.Abate
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Table of content
Introduction .....................................................................................................................................3
Ad hoc methods:.............................................................................................................................. 4
2.1 Expert Opinions..................................................................................................................... 5
2.2. Checklists.............................................................................................................................. 6
2.3 Ranking Method....................................................................................................................6
3.Delphi Method.............................................................................................................................. 7
3.1 Delphi Method Process.......................................................................................................... 9
4.Monetary cost benefit analysis and input out put methods.........................................................10
4.1. STEPS OF A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS..................................................................... 11
4.2 Input output analysis (IOA)................................................................................................. 11
5. Forecasting Techniques............................................................................................................. 11
5.1 Techniques of Forecasting................................................................................................... 12
6. Geographic Information Systems.............................................................................................. 12
7.Matrices...................................................................................................................................... 13
8.Networks...................................................................................................................15
9. summary..................................................................................................................16
10.Conclusion...............................................................................................................17
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1. INTRODUCTION
This report mainly deals on summarizing methods of Impact identification. Impact
identification is a process designed to ensure that all potentially significant impacts
are identified and taken into account in the EIA process.A number of ‘tools’ are
available to assist in impact identification. The simplest, and most frequently used, are
checklists of impacts, although matrices, network diagrams and map overlays are also
commonly used. More complex tools, such as mathematical modelling and the use of
GIS systems, may also be used in certain circumstances.
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2. AD-HOC APPROCH
Ad hoc method gives a rough assessment of total impact while giving the broad areas
and the general nature of possible impacts. In this method, the assessor relies on an
intuitive approach and makes a broad-based qualitative assessment. This method
serves as a preliminary assessment and helps in identification of important areas like
Wildlife, Endangered species, Natural vegetation, Exotic vegetation, Grazing, Social
characteristics, Natural drainage, Groundwater, Noise, Air quality, Open space,
Recreation, Health and safety, Economic values and public facilities.
This method is very easy to use, but does have a few drawbacks (Lohani and Kan,
1983):
It may not encompass all the relevant impacts;
·Because the criteria used to evaluate impacts are not comparable, the relative
weights of various impacts cannot be compared;
It is inherently inefficient as it requires sizeable effort to identify and assemble
an appropriate panel of experts for each assessment; and
It provides minimal guidance for impact analysis while suggesting broad areas of
possible impacts.
Most methods and techniques for identifying, measuring, and assessing impacts rely
on expert judgement.
In fact, many checklists, matrices, and models used in EIA represent decades of
experience accumulated by numerous experts. The experts themselves are heavily
involved in all aspects of the assessment — they are used.
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to help identify the potential for significant impacts, plan data collection and
monitoring programs, provide their judgement on the level of significance for specific
impacts, and suggest ways of reducing or preventing impacts.
The problem with the exercise of expert judgement in an ad hoc manner is that it is
characterized by a process of assessment that can never be replicated, thus making it
difficult to review and critique the conclusions in the EIA. Environmental impact
assessment usually requires the collection and analysis of considerable information
about the economic, social, and biophysical environment. Methods are needed to
organize this information for analysis and presentation — ad hoc methods fail to do
this in any meaningful way
Checklists are standard lists of the types of impacts associated with a particular type
of project.
Checklists methods are primarily for organizing information or ensuring that no
potential impact is overlooked.
They are a more formalized version of ad hoc approaches in that specific areas of
impact are listed and instructions are supplied for impact identification and evaluation.
Sophisticated checklists include:
There are four general types of checklists:
1. Simple Checklist: the simplest types of checklists provide lists of
potential impacts. These are designed to help practitioners to avoid
overlooking potential impacts. A component of a simple checklist
prepared for use in the UK is given below
Part of a Simple Checklist
Effects on land
• Physical effects of the development
• Effects of chemical emissions and deposits on soil of site and surrounding land
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Part of a Descriptive Checklist
Data Required
Nuisance
• Change in occurrence of odour, smoke, haze, etc., and number of people affected.
Water quality
• For each body of water, changes in water use, and number of people affected.
Noise
• Change in noise levels, frequency of occurrence, and number of people bothered.
Information source. Predictive techniques
• Expected industrial processes and traffic volumes, citizen surveys. • Current water
quality, current and expected effluent.
• Current noise levels, change in traffic or other noise sources, changes in noise
mitigation measures, noise propagation model, citizen surveys.
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3. DELPHI
The Delphi method is the process of gathering a panel of experts and engaging in
several rounds of questions about how to make certain business decisions or solve an
organizational problem. Every answer the experts provide is anonymous. After each
round, facilitators review and sort through all the answers.
The Delphi method is a great way to gain expert opinions on important organizational
decisions. This technique helps experts arrive at a group decision that might solve
complex problems or implement big-picture decisions.
They'll locate answers with common themes and ideas and will share these with the
other experts. Once the experts hear and digest the other panelists' answers, they're
given the option to adjust their own answers according to the group's responses.
The main purpose of the Delphi method is to encourage these experts to settle on a
mutual agreement and to establish a group consensus. Many industries and
organizations may use this method for business forecasting or structural decisions,
like industry predictions, government planning or financial strategies.
The Delphi method is a process used to generate group decisions that genuinely
represent the opinions of a panel.
In order to reach a decision, a panel of experts undergoes several rounds of questions.
These individuals then have the ability to examine other answers and change their
minds.
Gaining knowledge from experts: The Delphi method is a great way to settle any
discussions or resolve complex problems you and other team members may have.
Experts can all come to a logical agreement that could be beneficial to your
organization.
Receiving honest answers: Since the answers are all anonymous, panelists will feel
more comfortable providing their honest answers without receiving judgments or
repercussions. You can also feel confident knowing the input you're receiving is
truthful.
Reaching a strong group consensus: When experts hear other thoughts and
reasoning on certain topics, this may sway their opinion more easily. This allows the
experts to come to a group resolution with more people backing the same decision or
idea, which boosts your confidence in implementing the decision they come to.
Preventing a live discussion from occurring: While participants are still providing
feedback, they're not brainstorming original ideas or speaking their opinions freely,
since most of their input is anonymously written in a questionnaire. This can prevent a
live discussion of honest thoughts from being communicated back and forth among
professionals.
Resulting in slow response times: If you need to find the solution to a problem or
come to a decision quickly, there may be better options to pursue. The Delphi method
typically takes a large portion of the day to conduct, as it consists of several rounds of
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distributing, collecting and reviewing questionnaires. This typically results in longer
days and less time to allow for discussions.
Responses could provide little to no value: There may be a chance throughout the
study that the responses you receive could provide little to no value due to participants
being unable to come to a consensus.
They should have a full understanding of the subjects being discussed and should
possess strong research abilities. You should then construct your rounds and decide
how long they will last. They can last until a consensus is reached or you can assign a
specific time limit.
The number of panelists you add to the group should depend on factors like the
complexity of the subject matter and the study's timeframe. It's typically best to use
somewhere between 10 to 50 panelists.
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You can distribute your questionnaires before each round. Every questionnaire should
accompany a different round. The rounds your study will typically feature include:
Round 1
First round of questions should introduce your big-picture subject. This is typically
meant to kickstart the overall conversation between panelists. You'll provide basic
information for panelists to review, ask them to provide their honest feedback and will
instruct the facilitator to collect their answers.
Round 2
The facilitator will use this round to carefully review each answer and find common
reoccurrences or themes between all of the answers. They'll then provide the
important information from these answers to the panelists, who will review the
anonymous responses. Panelists are then given the option to readjust their original
answers based on what they've just read, which they'll submit to the facilitators.
Round 3
Once everyone has provided new or adjusted responses, the facilitator will review
these answers again to find any similarities and common themes between them.
They'll then design new, adjusted questions based on the previous round's answers for
participants to review and provide more feedback on. You can either end the study on
this round or continue adjusting the answers based on panelists' feedback until you
reach a general group consensus.
Once everything is finalized, you can take action to implement your findings by
presenting them to other team members or decision-makers, crafting a consensus
report, illustrating your findings in an industry article or implementing a new project
or decision.
Monetary cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is a method used to evaluate the costs and
benefits of a project or decision by comparing the present value of expected benefits
with the present value of expected costs over a given period. The two most common
methods of doing a cost-benefit analysis are Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit-
Cost Ratio (BCR).
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Generally speaking, cost-benefit analysis involves tallying up all costs of a project or
decision and subtracting that amount from the total projected benefits of the project or
decision. (Sometimes, this value is represented as a ratio.)
If the projected benefits outweigh the costs, you could argue that the decision is a
good one to make. If, on the other hand, the costs outweigh the benefits, then a
company may want to rethink the decision or project.
There are enormous economic benefits to running these kinds of analyses before
making significant organizational decisions. By doing analyses, you can parse out
critical information, such as your organization’s value chain or a project’s ROI.
Cost-benefit analysis is a form of data-driven decision-making most often utilized in
business, both at established companies and startups. The basic principles and
framework can be applied to virtually any decision-making process, whether
business-related or otherwise.
When tallying costs, you’ll likely begin with direct costs, which include
expenses directly related to the production or development of a product or
service (or the implementation of a project or business decision). Labor costs,
manufacturing costs, materials costs, and inventory costs are all examples of
direct costs.
But it’s also important to go beyond the obvious. There are a few additional
costs you must account for:
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one. If you don’t give all the costs and benefits a value, then it will be difficult
to compare them accurately.
If total benefits outnumber total costs, then there is a business case for you to
proceed with the project or decision. If total costs outnumber total benefits,
then you may want to reconsider the proposal.
For example, the column for auto manufacturing shows the resources required for
building automobiles (e.g., the amount of steel, aluminum, plastic, electronics, and so
on). I-O models typically include separate tables showing the amount of labor
required per dollar unit of investment or production.
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5. FORECASTING TEHNIQUES
Techniques of Forecasting
Many forecasting techniques have been created in recent years to deal with
managerial forecasting concerns’ increasing diversity and complexity. Each
has a specific use, and choosing the right approach for the job is essential. In
technique selection, the forecaster has a role to play. The better people
comprehend the spectrum of forecasting options, the more likely a company’s
forecasting efforts will be successful.
1. Time Horizon: The time horizon affects most forecasting methods in two
ways: the length of time in the future for which different methodologies are
appropriate and the number of periods for which a forecast is required.
2. Data Pattern: An appropriate approach can be chosen to match forecasting
methods, like time series, with the existing data pattern.
3. Accuracy: Within the bounds of human error, forecasts must be as accurate as
feasible.
4. Cost: The following four expenses are often involved in every forecasting
procedure: development, data preparation, and actual operation.
5. Reliability: Never forecast anything based on unreliable data for decision-
making purposes.
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2. Neural Networks: To uncover relationships, Neural Networks look for
patterns in previous sales history and descriptive data. The forecast is created
using these relationships.
3. Exponential Smoothing: To generate a forecast, exponential smoothing takes
an exponentially smoothed weighted average of past sales, trends, and
seasonality.
4. Moving Average: To produce a forecast, a Moving Average uses an average
of a certain number of previous observations. New observations are used in
the forecast as they become available, and the oldest observations are dropped.
5. The Naive Method is a forecasting technique that assumes the next expected
point is identical to the last observed point.
2. Quantitative: Quantitative data are, by accident, the foundation for analyzing
economic phenomena and processes. Mathematical, statistical, financial, and
optimization models are used in these forecasts.
Techniques:
1.The Sales Force Composite aggregates salespeople’s projections.
2. Customers’ expectations are used as the basis for forecasting in Customer
Expectations (Customer Surveys). A customer survey is often used to collect data
from the sales team.
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7. MATRICES
Types of Matrix
Simple Matrix
Time dependent matrix
Magnitude Matrix
Quantified Matrix (Leopold Matrix)
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Weighted Matrix
Impact network analysis (INA) is a tool for evaluating the likely outcomes of a
current or potential seed system project. These results support decision-making by
researchers, policy makers, and practitioners. Outcomes can be defined in terms of
important features including the potential spread of disease through the system, likely
adoption of new varieties in the region, and how well the system serves different
categories of stakeholders. INA includes an R package that simulates outcomes for
different scenarios defined by the user.
INA can be applied during project development to help make decisions and to identify
information gaps for further study. INA can also use disaggregated data on male and
female farmers, youth and elders, or between occupational groups (such as seed
producers vs traders).
Network diagrams
• Visually describe the linkages between isolated pairs of environmental factors,
providing some indication of how an ecosystem functions.
• Show that a series of second and third-order impacts may be triggered by a single
project action.
• The relative dependence of one factor on the condition of another may be indicated
by various arrow widths or weights.
• Negative and positive feedback loops can also be identified if the nature of the
interrelationship (e.g. directly or inversely proportional) is indicated.
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SUMMARY OF METHODS OF IMPACT IDENTIFICATION
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CONCLUSION
Generally these report was essential for us in order to understand
about the impact identification methods. It briefly discuss the
definition, types and examples of each method.
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