Prepared by: Group 2

Activity 6
EXPECTED
IMMEDIATE OPTIMISTIC MOST LIKELY PESSIMISTIC TIME
ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR a m b t = [(a + 4m +
b)/6]
A -- 2 5 8 5
B A 3 6 9 6
C A 4 7 10 7
D B 2 5 14 6
E D 3 3 3 3
F C 6 8 10 8
G E, F 1 1 1 1
H C 6 10 14 10
I G, H 3 4 5 4
Table 1

1) Draw the network for the activities in Table 1

B D

START A

2) State the critical path

EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST

START FINISH START
EXPECTED
ACTIVITY IMMEDIATE TIME
PREDECESSOR t = [(a + 4m +
b)/6]
 EXPECTED
IMMEDIATE TIME
ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR t = [(a + 4m +
b)/6] ES EF = ES + t LS = LF – t

A -- 5 0 5 0
B A 6 5 11 6
C A 7 5 12 5
D B 6 11 17 12
E D 3 17 20 18
F C 8 12 20 13
G E, F 1 20 21 21
H C 10 12 22 12
I G, H 4 22 26 22

Activity t
ES EF
LS LF B
5
6

A 5
0 5
0 5

C
5
5

Note: For Activit

smallest LS value
13 & H= 12, H ha
Answer: that is 12
The critical path is A--> C --> H ---> I

3)    Determine the expected completion time

The expected completion time is 26 weeks

4) Calculate the variance

 VARIANCE
ACTIVITY
[(b-a)/6)]2
A 1.000
C 1.000
H 1.778
I 0.111
Total 3.889

Hence, the project variance is 3.889

5) Find the probability that the project will be completed in 28 weeks

= √3.889
= 1.972 weeks

Due date: 28 weeks

Expected date: 26 weeks

= (28 - 26)
1.972

Z = 1.014 ~ 1.01
From Z score table above, we find the probability of 0.84375 associated with this Z value.
That means the probability this project can be completed in 28 weeks or less is 0.84375 or 84.38%
The project’s expected completion date is 26 weeks.

Expected Time is 26 weeks

Probability 1.014 standard deviation

(T ≤ 26 weeks) is 84.38%

26 28
Weeks Weeks
 VARIANCE
[(b-a)/6)]2

1.000
1.000
1.000
4.000
0.000
0.444
0.000
1.778
0.111

D E

G I FINISH

LATEST
FINISH SLACK

ON CRITICAL
PATH?
 LF = Smallest ON CRITICAL
LS of LS - ES or LF – PATH?
following EF
activities

5 0 Yes
12 1 No
12 0 Yes
18 1 No
21 1 No
21 1 No
22 1 No
22 0 Yes
26 0 Yes
ES & EF Calculate forward

6 D 6 E
11 11 17 17
12 12 18 18

F 8
12 20
13 21
7
12
12 H 10
12 22
12 22

Note: For Activity C = LF take the

smallest LS values. Hence between F=
13 & H= 12, H have the smallest value
that is 12 LS & LF Calculate backward
this Z value.
is 0.84375 or 84.38%

014 standard deviation

Time
 Note: For Activity I = ES take
the highest values EF. Hence
between G = 21 & H= 22, H
have the highest value that
is 22

3
20
21

G 1 I
20 21 22
21 22 22

lculate backward
e: For Activity I = ES take
highest values EF. Hence
ween G = 21 & H= 22, H
e the highest value that
2

4
26
26

Note:
Expected completion time
is 26