Indian Institute of Management Lucknow

Post Graduate Programme

Course Instructor: Kaustav Banerjee

1. According to a survey, the average night’s sleep is 6.8 hrs. Assume the standard deviation
is 0.6 hrs and the probability distribution is normal. (a) What is the probability that a
person sleeps more than 8 hrs? (b) Doctors suggest getting between 7 and 9 hrs of sleep
each night. What percentage of the population gets this much sleep? [0.023, ≈ 37%]

2. Motorola used the normal distribution to determine the probability of defects and the
number of defects expected in a production process. Assume a production process pro-
duces items with a mean weight of 10 ounces. Calculate the probability of a defect and
the expected number of defects for a 1000-unit production run in the following situations.
(a) The process standard deviation is 0.15, and the process control is set at plus or
minus one standard deviation. Units with weights less than 9.85 or greater than 10.15
ounces will be classified as defects. [0.32, 320]
(b) Through process design improvements, the process standard deviation can be re-
duced to 0.05. Assume the process control remains the same, with weights less than 9.85
or greater than 10.15 ounces being classified as defects. [0.002, 2]

3. A machine produces bearings whose diameters are normally distributed with mean 0.5
and SD 0.003 centimeters respectively. If tolerance limits are 0.5 ± 0.004 centimeters,
what percentage of products would be unacceptable? [≈ 18%]

4. A project has four phases viz. 1,2,3,4. A phase cannot start until the previous phase is
completed. The time to completion for each phase is believed to be normally distributed
with means 6, 12, 4 and 8 weeks respectively and standard deviations 1, 3, 1 and 2 weeks
respectively. Completion times of the different stages are independent of each other.
(a) What is the expected total time and SD of total time for completion? [30, 3.873]
(b) What is the probability that phase 3 starts in no later than 20 weeks? [0.74]
(c) If the project is scheduled to be completed in 32 weeks, what is the probability that
it will be completed in time? [0.697]
(d) What should be the planned duration if a probability of 80% is specified for in-time
completion of the project? [≈ 33.3 weeks]

5. An insurance portfolio has 10 policies. The first policy is expected to result in 1 claim,
2nd policy is expected to result in 2 claims and in general the i’th policy is expected to

1
 result in i claims. Suppose that the number of claims from each policy is distributed as
Poisson and they are independent of each other. (a) What is the distribution of total
claims from the portfolio? (b) As per CLT, what is the approximate distribution of the
total number of claims from the portfolio?

6. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate that the yearly
precipitation in Los Angeles is a normal random variable with a mean of 12.08 inches and
a standard deviation of 3.1 inches. Assume that the yearly precipitations are independent.
(a) Find the probability that the total precipitation during the next 2 years will exceed
25 inches. (b) Find the probability that next year’s precipitation will exceed that of the
current year by more than 3 inches. [0.424, 0.25]

7. The annual rainfall (in inches) in a certain region is normally distributed with µ =
40, σ = 4. If the yearly rainfalls are independent, what is the probability that in 2 of the
next 4 years the rainfall will exceed 50 inches? [0.0002]

8. Buses arrive at a specified stop at 15-minute intervals starting at 7 A.M. That is, they
arrive at 7, 7:15, 7:30 and so on. If a passenger arrives at the stop at a time that is
uniformly distributed between 7 and 7:30, find the probability that he waits (a) less
than 5 minutes for a bus (b) more than 10 minutes for a bus [1/3, 1/3]

9. The time (in hours) required to repair a machine is an exponentially distributed random
variable with parameter λ = 1/2. (a) What is the probability that a repair time exceeds
2 hours? (b) What is the probability that a repair takes at least 10 hours, given that
its duration exceeds 9 hours? [0.02, 0.135]

10. The lifetime in hours of a certain kind of radio tube is a random variable having a
probability density function given by

 100 ,

x > 100

f (x) =  x2
0, x ≤ 100

What is the probability that exactly 2 of 5 such tubes in a radio set will have to be
replaced within the first 150 hours of operation? Assume that the events Ei , i = 1(1)5,
that the i’th such tube will have to be replaced within this time are independent. [0.33]

11. An expert witness in a paternity suit testifies that the length (in days) of human gestation
is approximately normally distributed with parameters µ = 270 and σ 2 = 100. The
defendant in the suit is able to prove that he was out of the country during a period that
began 290 days before the birth of the child and ended 240 days before the birth. If the
defendant was, in fact, the father of the child, what is the probability that the mother
could have had the very long/short gestation indicated by the testimony? [0.024]

12. The ideal size of a first-year class in a college is 150 students. The college, knowing from
past experience that, on the average, only 30 percent of those accepted for admission will
actually attend, uses a policy of approving the applications of 450 students. Compute
the probability that more than 150 first-year students attend this college. [0.056]