10 11 Balance of Payment
10 11 Balance of Payment
Balance of Payments
Introduction
Vietnamese tourists?
Vietnamse workers?
Vietnamese corporation?
Foreign branches/subsidiaries of Vietnamese
corporation?
A corporation?
Diplomats?
A resident of the
Military personnel? nation in which
it is
Tourists? incorporated
Workers?
A corporation?
Diplomats?
NOT Residents
Military personnel? of the nation in
which they are
Tourists? located
Workers?
A corporation?
Credit Debit
transactions transactions
are entered
involve the are entered
involve the with a
receipt of with a
making of negative
payments positive sign
payments to sign (-) in
from (+) in the
foreigners the nation's
foreigners nation's BoP
BoP
Credits and Debits
Flows of Goods,
services or assets
BoP1 BoP2
Flows of
capital
BoP Accounting Principles
commodity
Main categories (IMF - BPM6)
transactions
Credits
Debits
Income payments
Compensation
on foreign-owned
of employees
assets in the nation
Trade Balance
Capital
Account Acquisition/disposal of non-
produced, non-financial assets
Main
categories
Abroad
(IMF - Direct investment
BPM6) In economy
The transfer of
goods and The transfer of
financial assets Transfer of funds received
Debt by migrants to the sale or
ownership on
forgiveness leaving or acquisition of
fixed assets
entering a fixed assets
country
The Capital Account
Acquisition/disposal of non-
produced, non-financial assets
You will NOT consume them; they will last over one year
Other Investment Assets/Liabilities
Short-term trade
credits
Cross-border
Other accounts loans from all
receivable types of financial
institutions
Currency
Bank deposits deposits
Accounting of KA
Capital Inflows Capital Outflows
Private
Finance
Credits Debits Initiative
KA surplus KA deficits
KA – Implication
Memoranda:
◦ Foreign currencies
Function
• Reflects surplus/deficit of Current account and Capital account
• Reports the net change in FX reserves.
Table 5. U.S. Official Reserve Assets and
Foreign Official Assets in the United States
[Millions of dollars]
By instrument:
2 U.S. Treasury securities (table 1, line 58) 490125
6 Other U.S. government securities (table 1, line 59) -39017
7 Other U.S. government liabilities (table 1, line 60) 58461
U.S. liabilities reported by U.S. banks and securities brokers
8 (table 1, line 61) -71588
9 Liabilities for own accounts -34599
13 Liabilities for customers' accounts -36989
16 Other foreign official assets (table 1, line 62) 9594
Table 5. U.S. Official Reserve Assets and
Foreign Official Assets in the United States
[Millions of dollars]
By area:
17 Europe 9132
18 Canada -3980
20 Asia 377731
21 Africa 13519
22 Other 45402
Deficit and surplus in the BoP
CA and KA take place for business or profit motives
(except for unilateral transfers) and independently to BoP
consideration.
➔ All transactions in the CA and KA are called
autonomous transactions or “the items above the
line”
On the other hand, transactions in official reserve assets
are called accommodating transactions (or “items
below the line”) because they result from and are
needed to balance international transactions
The accommodating or below the line items form the
official reserve account, and the balance on the official
reserve account is called the official settlement balance
Deficit and surplus in the BoP
If the total of the debits > the total of the credits in the CA and KA
The net debit balance measures the deficit in the nation’s BoP
This deficit must then be settled with an equal net credit in the ORA
On the other hand, a nation has a surplus in the BoP if its total
credit exceed its total debits in the CA and KA. The net credit
balance gives the size of surplus and is settled by an equal debit
balance in the OCA
CA and other macroeconomic
indicators of the economy
CA and Y
CA and S
CA and Sp, Sg
National Income Account and CA
◦ Y = GDP
◦ C = consumption
◦ G = government spending
Y = C + I + G + CA
➔CA↑↓ ➔ Y ↑↓
National Income Account and CA
CA = X - M ➔ Y = C + I + G + X - M
Y = C + I + G + CA ➔ CA = Y – (C + I + G) = Y – A
where A = domestic absorption
➔ A country with current account deficit is buying
more from foreigners than it sells to them
➔ It has to increase net foreign debts.
➔ CA = net foreign wealth
◦ CA > 0: the country is a net lender to the rest of
world
◦ CA < 0: the country is a net borrower from the rest
of world
Saving and Investment
S<I
◦ A nation which produces less than it spends will invest
more than it saves domestically ➔ a net capital inflow ➔ a
capital account surplus
S = I + CA
➔ S - I = Net Foreign Investment (NFI) = CA
◦ If CA is in surplus, the nation must be a net
exporter of capital.
◦ If CA is a deficit, the nation is a major capital
importer.
CA = SP – I – (G – T)
CA < 0 CA > 0
Examples:
✓ 1994 - 1995, Mexico: Sp ↓ + (G - T)↑ → CA ↓ ➔ devaluation of Peso
✓ 1997, East Asia: - Sp too high(30 – 35% GDP)
- I too high and ineffective (major in real estate and
security market)
- (G – T): some deficit, some surplus
➔ CA in deficit➔ financial crisis in East Asia
COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
DEFICIT
CURRENCY DEPRECIATION
PROTECTIONISM
FOREIGN OWNERSHIP
STIMULATE NATIONAL SAVING
COPING WITH THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
DEFICIT
CURRENCY DEPRECIATION
◦ U.S. Experience: Does not improve the
trade deficit.
◦ Depreciations are ineffective because
It takes time to affect trade.
J-Curve Effect: States that a decline in
currency value will initially worsen the
deficit before improvement
THE J - CURVE
Net Trade
change Currency balance
in trade depreciation improves
balance
0 TIME
Trade balance
initially deteriorates
COPING WITH THE CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICIT
PROTECTIONISM
◦ Trade Barriers used
Tariffs
Quotas
◦ Results:
Most likely will reduce both X and M.
75
COPING WITH THE CURRENT
ACCOUNT DEFICIT
FOREIGN OWNERSHIP
◦ One protectionist solution would place
limits on or eliminate foreign ownership
leading to capital inflows.
76
Balance of Payment
Any question?
Any comment?
Thank you!!!
Homework (by group)