FEBRUARY 25, 2023

THEORY OF CHANGE
SUBMITTED BY:

M. ATIQ KHAN -MSBA

What is Theory of Change?
Theory of Change is essentially a comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a
desired change is expected to happen in a particular context. It is focused in particular on mapping
out or “filling in” what has been described as the “missing middle” between what a program or
change initiative does (its activities or interventions) and how these lead to desired goals being
achieved. It does this by first identifying the desired long-term goals and then works back from these
to identify all the conditions (outcomes) that must be in place (and how these related to one another
causally) for the goals to occur. These are all mapped out in an Outcomes Framework.

The Outcomes Framework then provides the basis for identifying what type of activity or intervention
will lead to the outcomes identified as preconditions for achieving the long-term goal. Through this
approach, the precise link between activities and the achievement of the long-term goals are more
fully understood. This leads to better planning, in that activities are linked to a detailed understanding
of how change actually happens. It also leads to better evaluation, as it is possible to measure
progress towards the achievement of longer-term goals that goes beyond the identification of
program outputs.

TOC Background
 
Theory of Change is a rigorous yet participatory process whereby groups and project stakeholders
identify the conditions they believe have to unfold for their long-term goals to be met. These
conditions are modeled as outcomes, arranged graphically in a causal framework. The methodology
used to create a Theory of Change is also usually referred to as Theory of Change, or the Theory of
Change approach. So, when you hear or say “Theory of Change”, you may mean either the process
or the product.
 Like any good planning and evaluation method for social change, Theory of Change requires
articipants to be clear on long-term goals, identify measurable indicators of success, and formulate
actions to achieve goals. It is distinct from any other method of describing initiatives in a few ways:
 it shows a causal pathway from here to there by specifying what is needed for goals to be achieved.
 it requires you to articulate underlying assumptions which can be tested and measured.
 it changes the way of thinking about initiatives from what you are doing to what you want to achieve
and starts there.
 
In developing theories of change we articulate the assumptions that stakeholders use to explain the
change process represented by the change framework. Assumptions are at the basis of all the
hypothesized causal connections between early, intermediate, and long term outcomes, and the
expectations. Practitioners also make assumptions about how and why proposed interventions will
lead to the expected outcomes. Airing assumptions is one of the most valuable parts of Theory of
Change as a participatory process, as stakeholders get to hear and challenge one another’s
understanding of the goals, the challenges, and what must hold true in the environment for the
initiative to succeed. Assumptions may be supported by research, which strengthens the plausibility
of the theory and the likelihood that stated goals will be accomplished.
 

TOC Benefits
There are many processes that help organize the components of a project.
Almost any type of logic model will present your initiative in terms of resources, activities, short and
long-term outcomes. These are useful tools, and can help clarify goals and communicate the basics
of how an initiative works to others.
TOC takes theses approaches further: it requires more specificity about goals and about the
conditions needed to reach them. Therefore, it is hard work and results in a more useful guide for
your work than other most other processes. Here are some of the benefits of developing your Theory
of Change:
  
When complete Theory of Change could be achieved:-
 A clear and testable hypothesis about how change will occur that not only allows you to be
accountable for results, but also makes your results more credible because they were predicted to
occur in a certain way
 A visual representation of the change you want to see in your community and how you expect it to
come about
 A blueprint for evaluation with measurable indicators of success identified
 An agreement among stakeholders about what defines success and what it takes to get there
 A powerful communication tool to capture the complexity of your initiative
 
Use of theory:
 As a framework to check milestones and stay on course
 To document lessons learned about what really happens
 To keep the process of implementation and evaluation transparent, so everyone knows what is
happening and why
 As a basis for reports to funders, policymakers, boards

How Does Theory of Change Work?

 
TOC maps out initiative through 6 stages:
1. Identifying long-term goals
2. Backwards mapping and connecting the preconditions or requirements necessary to achieve that
goal and explaining why these preconditions are necessary and sufficient.
3. Identifying your basic assumptions about the context.
4. Identifying the interventions that your initiative will perform to create your desired change.
5. Developing indicators to measure your outcomes to assess the performance of your initiative.
6. Writing a narrative to explain the logic of your initiative.
The TOC process hinges upon defining all of the necessary and sufficient conditions required to
bring about a given long term outcome. TOC uses backwards mapping requiring planners to think in
backwards steps from the long-term goal to the intermediate and then early-term changes that would
be required to cause the desired change. This creates a set of connected outcomes known as a
“pathway of change”. A “pathway of change” graphically represents the change process as it is
understood by the initiative planners and is the skeleton around which the other elements of the
theory are developed.
During the process of creating the pathway of change, participants are required to articulate as many
of their assumptions about the change process as they can so that they can be examined and even
tested to determine if any key assumptions are hard to support (or even false). There are typically
three important types of assumptions to consider: (a) assertions about the connections between long
term, intermediate and early outcomes on the map; (b) substantiation for the claim that all of the
important preconditions for success have been identified; and (c) justifications supporting the links
between program activities and the outcomes they are expected to produce. A fourth type of
assumption which outlines the contextual or environmental factors that will support or hinder
progress toward the realization of outcomes in the pathway of change is often an additional
important factor in illustrating the complete theory of change.
TOC approach to planning is designed to encourage very clearly defined outcomes at every step of
the change process. Users are required to specify a number of details about the nature of the
desired change — including specifics about the target population, the amount of change required to
signal success, and the timeframe over which such change is expected to occur. This attention to
detail often helps both funders and grantees reassess the feasibility of reaching goals that may have
initially been vaguely defined, and in the end, promotes the development of reasonable long-term
outcome targets that are acceptable to all parties.

When to Use

COMPONENTS
OF AN ROLE OF THEORY OF CHANGE THINKING AND STEPS
INITIATIVE

Identify Problem Before TOC begins.

Convene Key
People to
Before TOC begins.
Address
Problem

Conduct
Research in
Community to Can occur before having a clear theory, and revisited when new
Better questions emerge as a result of the TOC process.
Understand the
Problem

Where TOC really begins, in establishing consensus around well-

Set Initial Goals
defined long-term goals.

Enlarge
Based on knowledge of initial participants, but in creating the theory
Stakeholder
it often becomes clear that other people need to be at the table.
Group

As part of TOC, stakeholders are asked to be clear and explicit

Team Building
about their beliefs, goals, and assumptions. The process of
and Forging
discussion around these issues helps let everyone know where
Collaboration
everyone stands and helps to build trust.

The TOC process includes steps to elicit a conceptually tight,

Begin Planning
highly-detailed explanation for what changes need to occur and
an Initiative
their relation to one another.

Raise Funds Use your change framework and narrative to demonstrate to

funders that your initiative is well thought out, practical, and
measurable and that you have a process in place to be accountable
 for results.

The theory developed during the initial planning phase identified

interventions and strategies needed, and also identified how much
Develop an
change you are expecting. These two things provide the basis for
Action Plan
deciding which specific actions will bring about the expected degree
of change.

Your theory of change is the blueprint for evaluation. It identifies

Develop an indicators of success and specifies the details of who is expected to
Evaluation Plan change and how much. This is the basis for developing the
methodologies to measure the indicators.

Your theory of change is a dynamic, living set of ideas that should

Implementation guide implementation and provide a framework for checking that the
initiative stays on track.

Because your theory of change is a living, dynamic set of ideas, you

Revise Plans
can make changes to it as you learn from your experiences. A TOC
(Mid-Course
helps guide decisions about how to make adjustments by clearly
Corrections)
showing the relationship between outcomes.

Your theory of change is the framework against which the success

and obstacles of your initiative will be evaluated. Because you will
Evaluation have articulated all the assumptions, justification, and contextual
conditions you believe affect your likelihood of success, lessons
about how these change, expand, or prove correct will be evident.

Reporting to Again, your theory of change provides the basis against which you
Funders, can report your successes, setback and lessons, and your
Boards, the evaluation results.
Community, etc.

While a good theory of change is critical for planning and

Dissemination of
evaluation, it is also a powerful communication tool because you
Results to a
can capture the complexity of your initiative in a form that is
Wider Audience
understandable to others.

Being specific about what made your initiative successful, and how
Influencing much change or success can be expected under given conditions
Policymakers and actions is what policymakers need to know in order to apply
lessons from one initiative to other problems.