Carbon Emissions Estimation - Methodology and Definitions
Carbon Emissions Estimation - Methodology and Definitions
Carbon Emissions
Estimation
Methodology and definitions
July 2023
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Contents
Introduction ................................................................................................................. 3
Background on carbon emissions ................................................................................ 3
Carbon emissions estimation models .......................................................................... 5
Estimating carbon emissions: scope 1+2 ......................................................................... 5
Production model ............................................................................................................ 5
Company-specific intensity model ................................................................................. 6
Industry segment-specific intensity model ................................................................... 7
Emissions estimate for companies with zero revenues............................................... 9
Confidence level of industry segment carbon intensities ........................................... 9
Estimating carbon emissions: scope 3 upstream (legacy model) ................................ 10
Estimating carbon emissions: scope 3 downstream for automobile manufacturers
(legacy model) ................................................................................................................... 11
Enterprise Value including cash (EVIC) intensity ........................................................ 13
EVIC use case ..................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Carbon emission estimates update cycle ....................................................................... 13
EVIC / Emission intensities over EVIC Update Cycle .................................................. 14
Appendices................................................................................................................ 15
Appendix 1: Estimation logic for different cases ............................................................ 15
Appendix 2: Estimation key combination logic for scope 1+2 ...................................... 18
Appendix 3: Historical methodology changes ................................................................ 20
Appendix 4: Reported vs. estimated data in MSCI World .............................................. 22
Appendix 5: Reported vs. estimated data in MSCI EM ................................................... 23
Appendix 6: Reported vs. estimated data in MSCI ACWI ............................................... 24
Appendix 7: Reported vs. estimated data in MSCI ACWI Investable Market Index (IMI)
............................................................................................................................................. 25
Appendix 8: Reported vs. estimated data in MSCI BBG Barclays Global Agg Corporate
............................................................................................................................................. 26
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Introduction
Rising concentration in greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic activities
has contributed significantly to detrimental climate change effects.1 In order to reduce the negative
impacts of climate change, world leaders in December 2015 through the Paris Agreement decided to
limit global warming this century to 2 degrees Celsius, compared with a pre-industrial period (1861-
1880) benchmark, and to pursue efforts to limit the warming further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.2 The
Paris Agreement requires all member countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (or
carbon emissions3) and strengthen these efforts in the years ahead.
MSCI ESG Research collects carbon emissions (in other words, greenhouse gas emissions) data for
the companies in our coverage universe. Data is collected once per year from most recent corporate
sources, including Annual Reports, Corporate Social Responsibility Reports, or websites. In addition,
MSCI ESG Research uses the carbon emissions data reported through CDP (formerly the Carbon
Disclosure Project) or government databases when reported data is not available through direct
corporate disclosure.
When companies do not disclose data, MSCI ESG Research uses proprietary methodologies to
estimate Scope 1, Scope 2, Upstream Scope 3, and Downstream Scope 34 carbon emissions.
Methane (CH4) 28
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Under MSCI ESG Research’s Scope 1+2 carbon emissions estimation approach, data disclosed by
companies (current and historical) is used to estimate carbon emissions intensity at the company
level and at the industry segment level. Our estimation model for Scope 1+2 carbon emissions has
three distinct modules.
MSCI ESG Research estimates a company’s carbon emissions using one out of following three
models in the given order of preference. Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions are separately estimated,
which allows us to consider partly disclosed data (e.g. only Scope 1 or Scope 2) and use the best
model, from below-mentioned options, after considering the disclosed data availability.
Production model
For power generating electric utilities, we use power generation fuel-mix data to estimate the carbon
emissions due to its power generation activities. In the first step, we collect reported data on total
power generation by fuel type under following categories:
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1. Coal
2. Liquid Fuels
3. Natural Gas
4. Nuclear Power
5. Renewable Energy
In Exhibit 2, power generation by fuel type for a sample company is shown in column 2. In the next
step, we apply appropriate carbon emissions factors over the fuel-mix data to estimate the Scope 1
emissions for electric utilities (column 3 and 4). It can be observed that direct emissions due to
power generation for this company are estimated as 120.2 million tons of CO2 equivalent.
1. Based on the historical reported carbon emissions and revenue data, we first estimate the
‘company-specific carbon emission intensity’ (Exhibit 3: Column 1 to 5). This intensity is
computed as the harmonic mean of reported carbon intensities in the last five years. We use
the harmonic mean because it is less affected by large outliers.
2. In the next step, we apply revenue of the year with missing carbon emission data to
company-specific carbon emissions intensity to estimate the carbon emissions for that year
(Exhibit 3: Column 6 and 7).
Because these estimates are based on data previously reported by the company, they already reflect
the specifics of the businesses and geographies in which the company operates and its own
production processes. However, we do not use this model for companies that have undergone
corporate actions (for example, mergers & acquisitions) even if such companies have reported data
in the past and for companies that have not reported emissions for more than 5 years because the
reported data may not represent the company’s current operational characteristics.
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Exhibit 3: Carbon emissions estimation using the Company-specific carbon intensity model
Year Sales Reported Reported Company- Estimation Emissions
(mil carbon carbon specific carbon – underlying (tons)
USD) emissions intensity intensity calculations
(tons) (tons/mil (tons/mil
USD) USD)
Not 983,000
2014 25,033 983,000 39.27 35.66
Required (Reported)
Not 885,557
2015 27,788 885,557 31.87 35.66
Required (Reported)
Not 1,151,271
2016 31,046 1,151,271 37.08 35.66
Required (Reported)
Not 1,196,940
2017 33,939 1,196,940 35.27 35.66
Required (Reported)
35.66 x 1,249,784
2018 35,046 - - 35.66
35,046 (E.CSI)
a) Estimate average carbon emissions intensity for 1,000+ industry segments using company-
specific carbon emission intensities.
i. To estimate the carbon intensity of an industry segment, we first identify a set of
companies with reported current and/or historical carbon emissions data and
deriving majority of their revenue from this industry segment. We use a combination
of Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®)7 and Standard Industrial
Classification (SIC) to determine this industry segment set.
ii. In the next step, we compute company-specific carbon emission intensities for
companies in this industry segment set. This process is detailed out above in the
‘Company-specific intensity model’ section.
7GICS, the global industry classification standard developed by MSCI Inc. and S&P Global. GICS is a service mark of MSCI Inc and
S&P Global
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iii. Within each industry segment set, we then remove the companies which have
intensities below the 10th percentile or above the 90th percentile (outliers) (Exhibit
4, column 2-5).
iv. After removing the outliers, for each industry segment we calculate the average
carbon intensity of companies falling between the 10th and 90th percentile (Exhibit
4, row 11).
b) Apply these average intensities to each of the company’s reported industry segments for the
year in question and multiply each intensity figure by the relevant segment’s revenue to
calculate estimated emissions for each industry segment (Exhibit 4). Please note the
process for estimating the carbon intensity of segment 1 of a given company Z is explained
in Exhibit 5.
c) In the final step, we sum the estimated emissions for each industry segment to calculate the
company’s total estimated carbon emissions for the year in question (Exhibit 5).
Please note that prior to 2015 emissions estimates, industry segment-specific carbon intensities
were estimated at GICS® Sub-Industry level rather than at industry segment level.
Exhibit 4: Estimating industry segment carbon intensity using the Industry segments specific
intensity model
S.No. Name of Company- Exclude/Keep (remove Intensities
company specific carbon outliers falling in top and bottom after
intensity (tons decile) removing
/ mil. USD) outliers
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Exhibit 5: Emissions estimation using industry segment carbon intensities for a given Company Z
For companies that do not disclosure revenues or with zero revenues, estimated absolute emissions
are not generated, only the industry average GICS Sub-Industry emissions intensities are attributed.
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To arrive at the confidence level in the estimated carbon emissions at company level, we compute
the CV at the company level. For a company with two industry segments, CV is computed using
following formula:
√𝑅12 𝑥 𝑆𝐷12 + 𝑅22 𝑥 𝑆𝐷22
𝐶𝑉𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 =
𝐸
Where:
R1 = Revenue from first industry segment
R2 = Revenue from second industry segment
SD1 = Standard deviation of estimated carbon intensity for first industry segment
SD2 = Standard deviation of estimated carbon intensity for second industry segment
E = Estimated carbon emissions at company level
CVtotal = Coefficient of Variance at company level
1. Estimate Scope 3 upstream carbon emissions intensity for 1,000+ industry segments using
(1) the company-reported upstream Scope 3 emissions intensity data and (2) the carbon
intensity data provided by the Comprehensive Environmental Data Archive (CEDA).8
2. Apply these average intensities to each of the company’s reported industry segments for the
year in question and multiply each intensity figure by the relevant segment’s revenue to
calculate estimated emissions.
3. Sum the estimated emissions for each business segment to calculate the company’s total
estimated carbon emissions for the year in question.
4. In addition to the total upstream Scope 3 emissions that include emissions associated with
both direct (Tier 1) and indirect suppliers, we also provide the Tier 1 upstream Scope 3
emissions that consider direct suppliers only. To estimate the Tier 1 upstream Scope 3
emissions, we first compute the ratio of Tier 1 upstream Scope 3 emissions intensity and the
total upstream Scope 3 emissions intensity using the CEDA data. In the next step, we
estimate the Tier 1 upstream Scope 3 carbon emissions intensity for 1,000+ industry
segments by multiplying this ratio with the Scope 3 upstream emissions intensity computed
in Step 1. We then follow the calculations similar to Step 2 and Step 3 to estimate the Tier 1
upstream Scope 3 carbon emissions.
8The Comprehensive Environmental Data Archive (CEDA) is a suite of environmentally extended input-output databases that are
designed to assist various environmental systems analyses and Life Cycle Assessments (LCA), including carbon footprinting, water
footprinting and embodied energy analysis. The dataset is developed by Industrial Ecology Research Services (IERS) LLC.
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Please note that MSCI’s Climate Risk Center has introduced a different Scope 3 estimation model9 in
May 2020, which has its own methodology document and a quarterly update cycle.
Factors associated with the legacy Scope 3 estimation model continue to be available on ESG
Manager, but the data is no longer refreshed.
CO2 emissions from use of sold products = ∑ total lifetime expected uses of producti x number of
product sold in reporting periodi x fuel consumed per usei x emission factor for fuel
Because there is less disclosure of data points required to estimate CO2 emissions for heavy
vehicles, in the current dataset the estimates are provided for light vehicles (passenger cars and
light commercial vehicles) only.
For light vehicles, the three factors in the above equation are estimated as follows:
1. Total lifetime expected use of sold vehicles: We assume the life of a light vehicle to be 10
years and per-year use of a light vehicle to be 15,000 km driven. The total lifetime expected
use is thus estimated to be 150,000 kms driven. These values are in line with the lifetime
mileage values used by some automobile manufacturers to estimate and report their Scope
3 downstream emissions (for “use of sold products” category).
2. Number of vehicles sold by vehicle type: We have defined five categories (vehicle types)
under light vehicles. Please refer to Exhibit 7 for more details on the vehicle types and their
definitions. To estimate the number of light vehicles sold by category / vehicle type, we refer
to the company disclosures (annual reports, company website etc.).
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3. Carbon efficiency of the vehicle type: To estimate the carbon efficiency of different vehicle
types, we use the following sources:
a. Company sources: emissions gCO2/km for each type of vehicle; average fleet
emissions etc.
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Please note that MSCI’s Climate Risk Center has introduced a different Scope 3 estimation model11 in
May 2020, which has its own methodology document and a quarterly update cycle.
Factors associated with the legacy Scope 3 estimation model continue to be available on ESG
Manager, but the data is no longer refreshed.
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available reports as of December 2020. Each company's estimated emissions are calculated using
the appropriate estimation logic (see Appendix 1).
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Appendices
Appendix 1: Estimation logic for different cases
As discussed earlier, based on the historical data availability including fuel mix data and extent of
disclosure (full or part), we select the best option to estimate Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions
separately. We add Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions to derive Scope1+2 emission value. There could
be some instances when a company reports only Scope 1+2 emissions, in such cases we use one of
three models to estimate Scope 1 and Scope 2 using reported Scope 1+2 value. Exhibit A1.1
contains all such possible cases and our estimation approach for those.
Please refer to footnote12 to understand the different symbols and notations used in this table.
Sr.
Case Key combination
no.
S1 S2 S12 Estimation process
S1 S2 S12
Key Key Key
1 R R R Check if s12 = s1 + s2 R R R
2 R R - Compute s12 = s1+s2 R R R
3 R - R Compute s2 = s12 – s1 R R R
4 - R R Compute s1 = s12 – s2 R R R
5 - - R Estimate s1 using Production model for Prod Prod R
power generating utilities. Then
estimate s2 as s12 - s1.
For other companies, if both E.CSI.s1 CSI CSI R
and E.CSI.s2 are available then
estimate s1 and s2 using Company-
specific intensity model as:
s1 = s12 x E.CSI.s1/(E.CSI.s1 +
E.CSI.s2) &
s2 = s12 x E.CSI.s2/(E.CSI.s1 +
E.CSI.s2)
Else use Industry segment-specific Seg Seg R
intensity model to estimate s1 and s2 mt mt
as:
s1 = s12 x E.Segmt.s1/(E.Segmt.s1 +
E.Segmt.s2) &
s2 = s12 x E.Segmt.s2/(E.Segmt.s1 +
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E.Segmt.s2)
8 - - - Scope 1 Prod - -
Scope 1 CSI - -
Scope 1 Seg - -
mt
Else use Industry segment-specific
intensity model to estimate s1 based on
E.Segmt.s1.
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Scope 2 - CSI -
Scope 2 - Seg -
mt
Else use Industry segment-specific
intensity model to estimate s2 based on
E.Segmt.s2.
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Reported Reported E.prod E.CSI E.Seg E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg
mtHigh mtLow
Moder Moder Moder
E.prod E.prod E.prod E.CSI E.Seg E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg
mtHigh mtLow
Moder Moder Moder
E.CSI E.CSI E.CSI E.CSI E.Seg E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg
mtHigh mtLow
Moder Moder Moder
E.Segmt- E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg
mtHigh mtHigh mtHig mtHigh mtLow
High Moder Moder Moder
h
ately ate ately
High
Low
E.SegmtMod E.Seg mt- E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg
erately mt- mt- mt- mtLow
Moder Moder Moder Moder
High Moder Moder Moder
ately High ately ate ately
ately ately ately High
Low
High High High
E.Segmt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg
mt- mt- mt- mtLow
Moderate Moder Moder Moder Moder
Moder Moder Moder
ate ate ate ately
ate ate ate
Low
E.SegmtMod E.Seg mt- E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg mt- E.Seg
erately mt- mt- mt- mtLow
Moder Moder Moder Moder
Low Moder Moder Moder
ately ately ately ately
ately ately ately
Low Low Low Low
Low Low Low
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i. From the reported data set of the last five years, calculate the company-specific carbon
intensities of the companies with reported data.
ii. Within each GICS sub-industry, remove the companies which have intensities below the 10th
percentile or above the 90th percentile (outliers) (Exhibit A3.1, column 1-3).
iii. After removing the outliers, for each GICS sub-industry calculate industry specific carbon
intensity as the average of company-specific carbon intensities within a particular GICS Sub-
Industry (Exhibit A3.1, row 11).
iv. In the next step, apply revenue of the year with missing carbon emission data to industry
specific carbon emissions intensity to estimate the carbon emissions for that year (Exhibit
A3.1, row 12 and 13).
Exhibit A3.1: Estimating carbon emissions using GICS sub-industry based Industry specific
intensity model
S. Name of Company specific Exclude/Keep (remove Intensities
No company carbon intensity (tons outliers falling in top and after
/ mil. USD) bottom decile) removing
outliers
1 Company A 26.5 Keep 26.5
2 Company B 23.2 Keep 23.2
3 Company C 31.6 Keep 31.6
4 Company D 8.6 Exclude -
5 Company E 185.8 Exclude -
6 Company F 35.2 Keep 35.2
7 Company G 27.8 Keep 27.8
8 Company H 26.7 Keep 26.7
9 Company I 29.9 Keep 29.9
10 Company J 30.4 Keep 30.4
13GICS, the global industry classification standard developed by MSCI Inc. and S&P Global. GICS is a service mark of MSCI Inc and
S&P Global.
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Exhibit A4.2: By % of total emissions of constituent companies (as of 31st March 2023)
Exhibit A4.3: By constituents’ weight in MSCI World (as of 31st March 2023)
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Exhibit A5.2: By % of total emissions of constituent companies (as of 31st March 2023)
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Exhibit A6.2: By % of total emissions of constituent companies (as of 31st March 2023)
Exhibit A6.3: By constituents’ weight in MSCI ACWI (as of 31st March 2023)
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Appendix 7: Reported vs. estimated data in MSCI ACWI Investable Market Index (IMI)
Exhibit A7.2: By % of total emissions of constituent companies (as of 31st March 2023)
Exhibit A7.3: By constituents’ weight in MSCI ACWI IMI (as of 31st March 2023)
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Appendix 8: Reported vs. estimated data in MSCI BBG Barclays Global Agg Corporate
Exhibit A8.2: By % of total emissions of constituent companies (as of 31st March 2023)
Exhibit A8.3: By constituents’ weight in MSCI BBG Barclays Global Agg Corporate (as of 31st
March 2023)
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