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Lac Thesis

The document provides an equity analysis and valuation for Axon from QOE Capital Investments. QOE issues a HOLD rating for Axon based on macroeconomic risks but sees individual upside. Their 12-month price target is $246 based on revenue, earnings, and cash flow models. Their 10-year price target averages $107, representing 140% upside from current prices. Valuation methodologies include price-to-revenue, price-to-earnings, and discounted cash flow models.

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Quinn Coughlin
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© © All Rights Reserved
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
17 views31 pages

Lac Thesis

The document provides an equity analysis and valuation for Axon from QOE Capital Investments. QOE issues a HOLD rating for Axon based on macroeconomic risks but sees individual upside. Their 12-month price target is $246 based on revenue, earnings, and cash flow models. Their 10-year price target averages $107, representing 140% upside from current prices. Valuation methodologies include price-to-revenue, price-to-earnings, and discounted cash flow models.

Uploaded by

Quinn Coughlin
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 31

Axon Equity Analysis

QOE Capital Investments

Axon is an emerging power in the bodycam hardware and


software space. This is a fast growing market due to
regualtion of law enforcement. We forecast the market as a
whole to grow on average 15.6% yearly into 2030 and
based our models around this. Our 12 month target is $246
based on a composite of Revenue, Earnings and Cash Flow
evaluations.

We issue a HOLD rating based on macro risks to the


broader market but individual upside for Axon.
% to
12 MONTH TARGET PRICE Price Target Target SPX Target
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 1 OF 3 (P/R) $ 50 56% Current
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 2 OF 3 (P/E) $ 27 -14% 12 Month
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 3 OF 3 (DCF) $ 38 16% 10 year
AVERAGE OF ALL 3 'JUST RIGHT' PRICE TARGETS $ 42 30%

% to
10 YEAR TARGET PRICE Price Target Target
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 1 OF 3 (P/R) $ 132 199% 2023
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 2 OF 3 (P/E) $ 55 53% 10 year avg
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 3 OF 3 (DCF) $ 99 99%
AVERAGE OF ALL 3 'JUST RIGHT' PRICE TARGETS $ 107 140%

Assume Market Cap today = $ 3,263


Assume Stock Price today = $ 20
Price Target % to Target
$21.26
$42.29 98.89%
$106.76 419.66%

Alpha

-69.26%
-27.99%
Additional Valuation Methodologies
$ Values are in $'000s

Green = from other tabs

Price to Revenu
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 1 OF 3: P/R
2023E 2024E 2025E
Revenue $87 $1,284 $1,331
Yearly Growth % #DIV/0! 1375.9% 3.7%

Bulllish Price Target


@ 5x's Revenue
Price Target that Year $2.72 $40.15 $41.62
Market Cap Target that Year $435 $6,420 $6,655
Bearish Price Target
@ 3x's Revenue
Price Target that Year $1.63 $24.09 $24.97
Market Cap Target that Year $261 $3,852 $3,993
'Just Right' Price Target
@ 4x's Revenue
Price Target that Year $2.18 $32.12 $33.30
Market Cap Target that Year $348 $5,136 $5,324
Discount 2027E Price Target to Today's Target Price $ 50

VALUATION METHODOLOGY 3 OF 3: DCF DCF Valuation Price Per Share Target $


Bullish Case
Bearish Case
Just Right Case $37.56

Price % to
12 MONTH TARGET PRICE Target Target
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 1 OF 3 (P/R) $ 50 147%
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 2 OF 3 (P/E) $ 27 33%
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 3 OF 3 (DCF) $ 38 84%
AVERAGE OF ALL 3 'JUST RIGHT' PRICE TARGETS $ 42 105%

Price % to
10 YEAR TARGET PRICE Target Target
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 1 OF 3 (P/R) $ 132 547%
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 2 OF 3 (P/E) $ 55 171%
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 3 OF 3 (DCF) $ 99 385%
AVERAGE OF ALL 3 'JUST RIGHT' PRICE TARGETS $ 107 423%

Assume Market Cap today = $ 3,263


Assume Stock Price today = $ 20.41
Price to Revenue Multiple Valuation
2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E
$2,068 $2,857 $2,960 $3,477 $4,842 $5,055 $5,277
55.4% 38.2% 3.6% 17.5% 39.3% 4.4% 4.4%

$64.67 $89.34 $92.56 $108.72 $151.41 $158.07 $165.02


$10,340 $14,285 $14,800 $17,385 $24,210 $25,275 $26,387

$38.80 $53.60 $55.53 $65.23 $90.84 $94.84 $99.01


$6,204 $8,571 $8,880 $10,431 $14,526 $15,165 $15,832

$51.73 $71.47 $74.05 $86.98 $121.13 $126.46 $132.02


$8,272 $11,428 $11,840 $13,908 $19,368 $20,220 $21,110

uation Price Per Share Target $

$37.56

% to
SPX Target Price Target Target
Current $21.26 10654.5178
12 Month $ 42 98.89%
10 year 106.044808365 420% 10654.5178
Price to Earnings Multiple Valuatio
VALUATION METHODOLOGY 2 OF 3: P/E
2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
EPS $ 0.27 $ 2.00 $ 2.10 $ 3.27 $ 4.55
Yearly Growth % (104.1%) 649.4% 5.2% 55.8% 39.1%

Bulllish Price Target


@ 2x PEG that year
Price Target that Year ($55) $2,592 $22 $365 $356
Market Cap Target that Year ($8,863) $414,466 $3,463 $58,334 $56,946
Bearish Price Target
@ 1x PEG that year
Price Target that Year ($28) $1,296 $11 $182 $178
Market Cap Target that Year ($4,431) $207,233 $1,731 $29,167 $28,473
'Just Right' Price Target
@ 1.5x PEG that year
Price Target that Year ($42) $1,944 $16 $274 $267
Market Cap Target that Year ($6,647) $310,850 $2,597 $43,750 $42,709
Discount 2020E Price Target to Today's Target Price $ 27
to Earnings Multiple Valuation
2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E
$ 4.71 $ 5.45 $ 7.63 $ 8.03 $ 8.39
3.6% 15.7% 39.9% 5.3% 4.4%

$34 $171 $610 $85 $74


$5,411 $27,380 $97,464 $13,626 $11,775

$17 $86 $305 $43 $37


$2,706 $13,690 $48,732 $6,813 $5,888

$25 $128 $457 $64 $55


$4,058 $20,535 $73,098 $10,220 $8,831
DCF Model
Discounted Cash Flow Price Target Model
$ Values are in $'000s

Green = from other tabs

Free Cash Flow (FCF):


ce Target Model

m other tabs

2023 2024 2025


$10.44 $154.08 $159.72

Weighted Average Cost of Capital:

Assume Market Cap today = $ 3,263


Assume Stock Price today = $ 20.41

10.4%
+
0.8720%
=
11.31%

NPV = $2,286
Tax Rate 27%
Long Term Growth = 2.0%
Terminal Value = $10,308
TV Discounted = $3,930

5.3% 8.3%
1% $51 $28
Growt

2% $66 $33
h

3% $94 $39

Green = Bullish
2026 2027 2028
$268.84 $399.98 $532.80

Cost of Equity:

Assume Beta= 1.58


Assume Risk Free Rate = 4.3%
Assume Market Return = 9.5%

4.30%
+
1.58 * (9.5% - 4.3%)
=
12.5%

Target Equity Value = $6,216


Less Debt = $210
Target Value = $6,006
Shares = 159.9
Target per share $37.56

11.3% 14.3% 17.3%


$19 $14 $10
$21 $15 $11
$23 $16 $12

Orange = Base Case Red = Bearish Case


2029 2030 2031
$727.44 $822.01 $871.10

Cost of Debt:

Assume Debt Cost= 7%

7% * (1-0.30)
=
5.3%

Current Market Value $3,263


Upside 105.13%
d = Bearish Case
2032
$940.79
Income Statement
$ Values are in $'000s
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)
Green = from previous tab: "Revenue (More Detail)"

2017 2018 2019 2020

Revenue 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


YOY change -100.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
QOQ change

COGS 137.0 161.0 224.0 265.0


% of sales 3425.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Gross profit (133.0) (161.0) (224.0) (265.0)
Gross margin -3325.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Sales and marketing


% of sales 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Product development 55.0 77.0 101.0 123.0
% of sales 1375.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
General and administrative 139.0 151.0 207.0 301.0
% of sales 3475.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Depreciation 6.0 6.0 6.0
% of sales 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Total expenses 331.0 395.0 538.0 695.0


% of sales 8275.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Yoy Change 19.34% 36.20% 29.18%
Income (loss) from operations 16.0 28.0 2.0 (9.0)
% of sales 400.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
EBITDA 16.0 34.0 8.0 (3.0)
% of sales 400.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Other income (expense), net 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
% of sales 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
GAAP Income (loss) before income taxes 16.0 28.0 2.0 (6.0)
% of sales 400.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
GAAP Provision (benefit) for income taxes 3.0 (1.0) 1.0 (5.0)
Tax rate 18.8% -3.6% 50.0% 83.3%
GAAP Net income (loss) $ 13.0 $ 29.0 $ 1.0 $ (1.0)
% of sales 325.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
GAAP EPS* $ 0.24 $ 0.50 $ 0.02 $ (0.02)
YOY change 107.7% -96.7% -196.8%
GAAP Shares 54.0 58.0 60.0 62.0
* We will add Non-GAAP EPS in the valuation section.
2021 2022 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E 2023e 2024e 2025e

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.0 87.0 1,284.0 1,331.0


#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1375.9% 3.7%
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

322.0 458.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 32.2 60.9 385.2 399.3


#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 70.0% 30.0% 30.0%
(322.0) (458.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.8 26.1 898.8 931.7
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 63.0% 30.0% 70.0% 70.0%

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 19.3 20.0


#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
194.0 226.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.1 0.9 38.5 39.9
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 17.6% 17.6% 17.4% 17.4% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0%
505.0 396.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.0 26.1 398.0 406.0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% 30.0% 31.0% 30.5%
10.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 12.8 13.3
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

1,031.0 1,092.9 65.3 0.0 0.0 75.2 90.0 853.9 878.5


#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 86.4% 103.5% 66.5% 66.0%
48.35% 6.00% -91.76% 848.26% 2.88%
(142.0) (1,092.9) (65.3) 0.0 0.0 11.8 (3.0) 430.1 452.5
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13.6% -3.5% 33.5% 34.0%
(132.0) (1,080.9) (65.3) 0.0 0.0 12.7 (2.2) 443.0 465.9
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 14.6% -2.5% 34.5% 35.0%
1.0 92.1 40.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 43.0 4.0 4.0
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1.1% 49.4% 0.3% 0.3%
(141.0) (1,000.8) (25.3) 1.0 1.0 12.8 40.0 434.1 456.5
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 14.7% 45.9% 33.8% 34.3%
(81.0) 55.0 (6.3) 0.3 0.3 3.2 (2.6) 115.0 121.0
57.4% -5.5% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 35.0% 26.5% 26.5%
$ (60.0) $ (1,043.8) $ (19.0) $ 0.8 $ 0.8 $ 9.6 $ 42.6 $ 319.1 $ 335.6
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 11.1% 48.9% 24.9% 25.2%
$ (0.91) $ (6.53) $ (0.12) $ 0.00 $ 0.00 $ 0.06 $ 0.27 $ 2.00 $ 2.10
5536.4% 618.1% -95.8% -100.1% -100.1% -101.4% -104.1% 649.4% 5.2%
66.0 159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9
2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e

2,068.0 2,857.0 2,960.0 3,477.0 4,842.0 5,055.0 5,277.5


55.4% 38.2% 3.6% 17.5% 39.3% 4.4% 4.4%

620.4 857.1 888.0 1,043.1 1,452.6 1,516.5 1,583.2


30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
1,447.6 1,999.9 2,072.0 2,433.9 3,389.4 3,538.5 3,694.2
70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0% 70.0%

31.0 42.9 44.4 52.2 72.6 75.8 79.2


1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
62.0 85.7 88.8 104.3 145.3 151.7 158.3
3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
626.6 857.1 888.0 1,060.5 1,467.1 1,516.5 1,583.2
30.3% 30.0% 30.0% 30.5% 30.3% 30.0% 30.0%
20.7 28.6 29.6 34.8 48.4 50.6 52.8
1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%

1,360.7 1,871.3 1,938.8 2,294.8 3,186.0 3,311.1 3,456.7


65.8% 65.5% 65.5% 66.0% 65.8% 65.5% 65.5%
54.90% 37.52% 3.61% 18.36% 38.84% 3.92% 4.40%
707.3 985.7 1,021.2 1,182.2 1,656.0 1,744.0 1,820.7
34.2% 34.5% 34.5% 34.0% 34.2% 34.5% 34.5%
727.9 1,014.2 1,050.8 1,217.0 1,704.4 1,794.5 1,873.5
35.2% 35.5% 35.5% 35.0% 35.2% 35.5% 35.5%
4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
711.3 989.7 1,025.2 1,186.2 1,660.0 1,748.0 1,824.7
34.4% 34.6% 34.6% 34.1% 34.3% 34.6% 34.6%
188.5 262.3 271.7 314.3 439.9 463.2 483.6
26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5% 26.5%
$ 522.8 $ 727.4 $ 753.5 $ 871.8 $ 1,220.1 $ 1,284.8 $ 1,341.2
25.3% 25.5% 25.5% 25.1% 25.2% 25.4% 25.4%
$ 3.27 $ 4.55 $ 4.71 $ 5.45 $ 7.63 $ 8.03 $ 8.39
55.8% 39.1% 3.6% 15.7% 39.9% 5.3% 4.4%
159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9 159.9
Revenue Breakdown (feeds into the Income Statement on the next tab)
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)
2018 2019 2020 2021
Sector Breakdown of Revenue

Total Revenue 420.0 531.0 681.0 863.0


YOY change 26.4% 28.2% 26.7%
QOQ change

REVENUE LINE ITEM #1 OF 2 $ 420 $ 531 $ 681 $ 863


YOY change 26.4% 28.2% 26.7%
QOQ change
% of total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

REVENUE LINE ITEM #2 OF 2


YOY change
QOQ change
% of total
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)

1Q22A 2Q22A 3Q22A 4Q22A 2022 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E

256.4 285.6 311.8 343.0 $ 1,197 350.0 360.0 367.0 380.0


#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 38.7% 36.5% 26.1% 17.7% 10.8%
#REF! 11.4% 9.2% 10.0% 2.0% 2.9% 1.9% 3.5%

$ 256 $ 286 311.8 $ 343 $ 1,197 350.0 360.0 367.0 380.0


38.7% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0%
11.4% 9.2% 10.0% 2.0% 2.9% 1.9% 3.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e

89.0 1,284.0 1,331.0 2,068.0 2,857.0 2,960.0 3,477.0 4,842.0 5,055.0


-92.6% 1342.7% 3.7% 55.4% 38.2% 3.6% 17.5% 39.3% 4.4%

1,457.0 1,761.5 2,115.6 2,523.9 2,988.3 3,514.2 4,041.3 4,566.7 4,977.7


21.7% 20.9% 20.1% 19.3% 18.4% 17.6% 15.0% 13.0% 9.0%

1637.1% 137.2% 158.9% 122.0% 104.6% 118.7%


2032e

5,277.5
4.4%

5,375.9
8.0%
Balance Sheet
$ Values are in $'000s

Blue = hard coded (not calculated)


Green = from other tabs

Balance Sheet (in '000s). 2017 2018

Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents $ 75.0 $ 349.0
Short-term investments $ 7.0 $ -
Accounts receivable $ 56.0 $ 145.0
Accounts Receivable as a % of revenue #DIV/0!
Inventory $ 45.0 $ 34.0
Inventory as a % of revenue #DIV/0!
Total Current Assets $ 205.0 $ 558.0
Long Term Assets
**Equipment we own, net of accumulated depreciation and inclusive of capex. $ 31.0 $ 38.0
Here is How We Calculate Capex (same as Purchase of Equipment)
Depreciation (linked to the Income Statement) $ (36.0) $ (40.0)
Capex (we need to calculate this here as it feeds into the C.F. Statement) $ (33.0)
Capex as a % of revenue #DIV/0!
Machine
Total Long Term Assets $ 133.0 $ 162.0
TOTAL ASSETS $ 338.0 $ 720.0

Current liabilities
Accounts payable $ 9.0 $ 15.0
Accounts Payable as a % of revenue Err:509
Short-term debt $ - $ -
Total Current Liabilities $ 108.0 $ 166.0
Long Term Liabilities
Long-term debt $ - $ -
Other
Total Long Term Liabilities $ 63.0 $ 86.0
TOTAL LIABILITIES $ 171.0 $ 252.0

Retained Earnings $ 123.0 $ 171.0


Common Shares $ (156.0) $ (156.0)
Additional Capital
TOTAL SHAREHOLDER'S EQUITY $ 167.0 $ 467.0
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY $ 338.0 $ 720.0
Do Assets = Liabilities + Equity?

** The equipment that we own is equal to the amount of equipment we owned


in the previous quarter minus the amount tthat he equipment has depreciated
since the previous quarter PLUS the capex we spent to buy more equipment.
Please see the math/logic in the cells in the Equipment section above under Long
Term Assets. Thanks
2023 Quarters
2019 2020 2021 2022
1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E

$ 172.0 $ 155.0 $ 356.0 $ 126.0 $ 604.0 $ (977.0) $ (1,052.2) $ (1,148.0)


$ 179.0 $ 407.0 $ 87.0 $ 246.0 $ - $ 7.0 $ 7.0 $ 7.0
$ 185.0 $ 293.0 $ 501.0 $ 603.0 $ 4.3 $ 10.7 $ 33.5 $ 49.9
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
$ 39.0 $ 90.0 $ 109.0 $ 61.0 $ - $ - $ - $ -
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00%
$ 609.0 $ 982.0 $ 1,109.0 $ 1,036.0 $ 608.3 $ (959.2) $ (1,011.8) $ (1,091.2)

$ 44.0 $ 128.0 $ 162.0 $ 154.0 $ 720.0 $ 741.4 $ 808.3 $ 907.2

$ - $ (47.0) $ (59.0) $ 12.0 $ (4.3) $ - $ - $ 0.9


$ 6.0 $ 37.0 $ (25.0) $ 112.2 $ 13.9 $ 21.4 $ 66.9 $ 99.7
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 114.6%

$ 237.0 $ 399.0 $ 579.0 $ 840.0 $ 720.0 $ 741.4 $ 808.3 $ 907.2


$ 846.0 $ 1,381.0 $ 1,688.0 $ 2,084.0 $ 1,328.3 $ (217.8) $ (203.4) $ (184.0)

$ 26.0 $ 24.0 $ 32.0 $ 16.6 $ 58.6 $ 6.4 $ 20.1 $ 29.9


Err:509 Err:509 #DIV/0! $ - #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! $ 0.3
$ - $ - $ - $ - $ 2.2 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0
$ 196.0 $ 256.0 $ 419.0 $ 16.6 $ 60.8 $ 11.4 $ 25.1 $ 34.9

$ - $ - $ - $ - $ 207.7 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0


$ 6.0
$ 106.0 $ 149.0 $ 221.0 $ 349.0 $ 213.7 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0
$ 302.0 $ 405.0 $ 640.0 $ 792.0 $ 274.5 $ 16.4 $ 30.1 $ 39.9

$ 172.0 $ 170.0 $ 110.0 $ 238.0 $ (278.6) $ (277.9) $ (277.1) $ (267.5)


$ (156.0) $ (156.0) $ (156.0) $ (156.0) $ 1,305.8 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.0
$ 26.6
$ 543.0 $ 976.0 $ 1,048.0 $ 1,292.0 $ 1,053.8 $ (273.9) $ (273.1) $ (263.5)
$ 846.0 $ 1,381.0 $ 1,688.0 $ 2,084.0 $ 1,328.3 $ (257.4) $ (243.0) $ (223.6)
YES YES YES YES YES NO NO NO
$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ (39.6) $ (39.6) $ (39.6)
2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e

$ (1,148.0) $ (993.9) $ (834.2) $ (565.4) $ (165.4)


$ 7.0 $ 7.0 $ 7.0 $ 7.0 $ 7.0
$ 49.9 $ 172.0 $ 276.2 $ 417.1 $ 590.0
0.00% 13.39% 20.75% 20.17% 20.65%
$ 109.7 $ 141.2 $ 146.4 $ 227.5 $ 314.3
0.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00%
$ (981.4) $ (673.7) $ (404.6) $ 86.2 $ 745.8

$ 907.2 $ 1,238.3 $ 1,777.4 $ 2,590.9 $ 3,742.2

$ 0.9 $ 12.8 $ 13.3 $ 20.7 $ 28.6


$ 201.9 $ 343.9 $ 552.4 $ 834.2 $ 1,179.9
232.1% 26.8% 41.5% 40.3% 41.3%

$ 907.2 $ 1,238.3 $ 1,777.4 $ 2,590.9 $ 3,742.2


$ (184.0) $ 564.5 $ 1,372.8 $ 2,677.0 $ 4,488.0

$ 29.9 $ 103.2 $ 165.7 $ 250.2 $ 354.0


$ 0.3 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1 $ 0.1
$ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0
$ 34.9 $ 108.2 $ 170.7 $ 255.2 $ 359.0

$ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0

$ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0 $ 5.0


$ 39.9 $ 113.2 $ 175.7 $ 260.2 $ 364.0

$ (267.5) $ 51.6 $ 387.2 $ 909.9 $ 1,637.4


$ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.0 $ 4.0

$ (263.5) $ 55.6 $ 391.2 $ 913.9 $ 1,641.4


$ (223.6) $ 168.8 $ 566.9 $ 1,174.2 $ 2,005.3
NO NO NO NO NO
$ (39.6) $ (395.7) $ (805.9) $ (1,502.8) $ (2,482.7)
Cash Flow Statement
$ Values are in $'000s
Blue = hard coded (not calculated)
Green = from other tabs

Cash Flow Statement: $ Values are in $'000s 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Operating Activities
Net Income 13.0 29.0 1.0 (1.0) (60.0)
Increase in depreciation (+) 6.0 6.0 6.0 10.0
Increase in Accounts Receivable (-) (89.0) (40.0) (108.0) (208.0)
Increase in Inventory (-) 11.0 (5.0) (51.0) (19.0)
Increase in Accounts Payable (+) 6.0 11.0 (2.0) 8.0
Net Cash From Operating Activities 18.5 63.9 65.7 38.5 124.5
% of revenue 462.50% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

Investing Activities
Purchases of equipment (same here as 'Capex') (11.4) (11.7) (16.3) (72.7) (50.3)
% of revenue -285.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Net Cash From Investing Activities 18.5 63.9 65.7 38.5 124.5

Financing Activities
Increase in Short Term Debt (+) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase in Long Term Debt (+) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Increase in Common Shares (+) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Cash From Financing Activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash 37.0 127.8 131.4 77.0 249.0

Cash at beginning of period Cash and 75.0 349.0 172.0 155.0


Cash at ending of period 202.8 480.4 249.0 404.0
Does $ from Our Balance Sheet reflected in our $ here? No No No No

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Free Cash Flow (this is Net Cash from Operating Activities - Capex)
52.2 49.4 (34.2) 74.2

The Cash Flow Statement Forecasts are mainly


from the Balance Sheet (i.e., 'working capital'*,
capex, debt and equity) and the Income
Statement (net income and depreciation).
*'working capital' is current assets and current
liabilities). The Cash Flow Statement is easy to
forecast as it is linked to the Income Statement
and Balance Sheet!
2023 Quarters
2022 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E

(93.6) (19.0) 0.8 0.8 9.6 (7.9) 319.1 335.6 522.8


0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 12.8 13.3 20.7
0.0 0.0 (6.4) (22.7) (16.4) 0.0 (122.1) (104.3) (140.9)
130.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (109.7) (31.5) (5.2) (81.1)
(24.4) 0.0 (52.2) 13.6 9.9 0.0 73.3 62.6 84.5
210.0 (19.0) (57.8) (8.3) 3.9 14.8 218.3 226.3 351.6
#DIV/0! 17.00% 17.00% 17.00% 17.00%

(75.0) 24.8 (21.4) (66.9) (99.7) (4.4) (64.2) (66.6) (82.7)


#DIV/0! -5.00% -5.00% -5.00% -4.00%
135.0 24.8 (21.4) (66.9) (99.7) (4.4) (64.2) (66.6) (82.7)

0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 0.0 (202.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 320.2 (1,301.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 320.2 (1,501.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(1,347.8) 326.0 (1,581.0) (75.2) (95.8) (1,426.0) 154.1 159.7 268.8

126.0 194.5 604.0 (977.0) (1,052.2) (1,148.0) (1,148.0) (993.9) (834.2)


194.5 520.5 (977.0) (1,052.2) (1,148.0) (1,148.0) (993.9) (834.2) (565.4)
No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

2022 1Q23E 2Q23E 3Q23E 4Q23E 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e


135.0 5.8 (79.3) (75.2) (95.8) 10.4 154.1 159.7 268.8
2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e

727.4 753.5 871.8 1,220.1 1,284.8 1,341.2


28.6 29.6 34.8 48.4 50.6 52.8
(172.9) 590.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
(86.8) 314.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
103.7 (354.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
485.7 503.2 591.1 823.1 859.4 897.2
17.00% 17.00% 17.00% 17.00% 17.00% 17.00%

(85.7) 29.6 34.8 48.4 25.3 26.4


-3.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.50% 0.50%
(85.7) 29.6 34.8 48.4 25.3 26.4

0.0 (5.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


0.0 (5.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 (4.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 (14.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

400.0 518.8 625.9 871.6 884.6 923.6

(565.4) (165.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


(165.4) 353.4 625.9 871.6 884.6 923.6
Yes No No No No No

2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e


400.0 532.8 625.9 871.6 884.6 923.6

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