Weiß 2022 Prog. Energy 4 042009
Weiß 2022 Prog. Energy 4 042009
Progress in Energy
TOPICAL REVIEW
Keywords: photovoltaics, accelerated testing, environmental engineering, field performance, service life prediction, quality assurance
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Abstract
Any further distribution The solar conversion market with photovoltaic (PV) systems has experienced and is experiencing
of this work must an enormous growth worldwide and—according to the agreed goals of many countries to protect
maintain attribution to
the author(s) and the title the climate—will further grow over the coming decades. Investments related to PV became an
of the work, journal
citation and DOI. important financial product with the special feature of very long contract durations. A typical
setting is an operation of more than 20 years, during which the generation of electricity and also
revenues are expected. Sometimes Power Purchase Agreements with durations of up to 50 years
have been reported. Taking these long operational times into account, quality, durability, reliability,
and degradation rates become a crucial topic for the investment and for all stakeholders. PV
modules are the dominating components in this regard since they prevail the investment and—due
to their sheer quantity—are in most cases hard to replace if a system has PV module immanent
issues. Accelerated ageing tests are in general used to ensure the quality of PV components. These
tests are partly standardized, for PV mainly by the International Electrotechnical Commission IEC
and related national committees. These standards are used for type approval testing or safety
testing, which can also address legal issues. Accelerated ageing tests are also adapted to specific
needs and for example used for quality assurance (QA) of manufacturers or service life prediction
(SLP) by manufacturers or research institutes. All the efforts are taken to gain more knowledge
about the behavior of PV modules in operation and thus the accelerated tests have to be related to
normal operation. Since PV is used around the globe, the conditions vary significantly depending
on the location of installation, from dry and sunny deserts to mountain climates to tropical or
maritime climates. In addition, the type of installation has severe influence on the operational
conditions of PV modules i.e. mounted on a roof, roof integrated, open rack—or even in upcoming
applications like floating PV. The papers attempt is to give an overview on the state of the art of
accelerated testing and field performance analysis of PV modules with focus on the developments
over the last five to ten years. Developments are described and the status is analyzed regarding the
significance of tests including the latest developments and open scientific gaps related to the
envisaged correlation of accelerated tests with field performance. In the end the reader is enabled to
differentiate between reliability testing and service life prediction. The understanding for a
comprehensive approach of reliability testing including field evaluation data will be developed.
1. Introduction
The market for photovoltaic (PV) systems has experienced and is experiencing an enormous growth
worldwide and—according to the agreed goals of many countries to protect the climate—will further grow
over the coming years and decades. Investments related to PV became a key financial product with the special
attribute of very long contract durations. Typically, more than 20 years of operation are expected. Taking
these long operational times into account, quality, durability, reliability, and degradation rates become a
crucial topic for the economic success of PV.
Recently also sustainability assessments Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Levelized Cost of Electricity
(LCOE) became of major significance for the renewables industry. For such assessment models the
degradation effects are essential, hence reliability and degradation data is of highest value for all investments
and stakeholders. Based on the concern for reliable PV modules and reliable statements on durability and
degradation, big efforts have been taken during the last decade. The Know-How on degradation effects and
rates as well as on failure modes of PV modules in the field and related accelerated tests were improved.
Accelerated ageing tests, with subsequent characterization, are in general used to ensure and measure the
quality of PV components and are used for a long time [1]. These tests are adapted to specific requirement
and for example, used for quality assurance (QA) [2] of manufacturers or service life prediction (SLP) [3] by
manufacturers and research institutes.
These efforts are taken to gain further knowledge about the behavior of PV modules in operation and
therefore accelerated testing need to be related to normal operation. It will enable a phenomenological
correlation of degradation effects occurring under basic laboratory conditions compared to complex
outdoor conditions. Since PV is used around the globe, the conditions vary significantly depending on the
location of installation [4]. In addition, the type of installation has high impact on the operational
conditions. Whether PV modules are mounted on a roof, or in open rack, are roof integrated—or even in
upcoming applications like floating PV, vehicle integrated PV, or in agricultural implementation—it has
significant influence on the operational conditions.
All these variations make it necessary to relate accelerated tests to field performance of PV modules. This
paper attempts to give an overview on the state of the art of accelerated testing and field performance analysis
of PV modules including the latest developments and open gaps. For detailed information on physical
degradation mechanisms and related chemistry, it is recommended to consult further literature, e.g. [5, 6],
since this would be beyond the possibilities of one publication. The paper enables to differentiate between
reliability testing and service life prediction.
2. Background
Based on the demand for reliable PV modules and reliable statements on durability and degradation, big
efforts have been taken during the last decade to improve the know-how on degradation effects and rates, as
well as failure modes of PV modules in the field and related accelerated tests.
Different directions of scientific and technological developments in the area of field performance analysis
and accelerated testing can be reported, including numerous publications reporting on degradation of fielded
PV modules and systems, as e.g. [7–10]. The ‘classical’ accelerated tests like the standardized damp heat (DH)
or UV or thermal cycling testing have been applied extensively on big numbers of modules and module types.
Testing has been done also far beyond the testing durations/cycles given in the IEC standards, delivering lots
of data which can e.g. be analyzed for a correlation between specific loads and specific failures. But still, these
tests have not been developed to simulate normal outdoor operation. Therefore, several research groups have
tried to develop accelerated tests with the aim to directly simulate the outdoor conditions and accelerate the
related effects. In this area of activity significant progress can be seen. Still, there is a lot of work to be done to
make such tests easier and especially more common, since they are still rarely applied. Other approaches aim
at developing tests to screen for specific failures. Here especially established tests for potential induced
degradation (PID) and light and elevated temperature induced degradation (LeTID) can be named.
Being aware that the degradation and reliability of PV modules depends on the specific conditions of the
location and the installation they are operated in, great efforts can be documented in the analysis of field
performance of PV modules, including correlation of operational loads with failures. Recently, approaches to
map climatic conditions and relate the local climatic conditions to degradation rates or failure risks using
degradation modelling have been proposed. These approaches and all the Service Life Prediction efforts
bring together know-how and data from accelerated testing and field performance analysis. Respectable
progress is noted but still many research questions are open.
Field performance of PV modules is the one relevant parameter, which is crucial for durability and reliability.
In the end, field performance determines the bankability and economic success of PV plants. Field
performance is also key for all tasks related to testing, qualification, and benchmark setting. This
benchmarking is used for activities and analysis of accelerated ageing. Accordingly, the modules are
differentiated regarding their field performance, and the single module performance (over time) depends on
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the specific conditions of the location and the application/installation. The reasons for testing modules in the
field are various and rarely limited to only one single scope. But for sure field performance measurements are
an essential part to determine conditions for artificial degradation testing and for the design of such tests.
And for sure, the most important point, accelerated testing needs to be validated by field performance. The
optimization and adaption of standard test conditions relies on the understanding of effects from the fields
in different locations. The statistics of enormous numbers of accelerated ageing tests are worthless, if none of
those effects can be reproduced in the site of interest. In addition, not every module has necessarily to
withstand all the weathering conditions from extremely dry and cold to hot-humid climatic conditions. An
adaption of material is highly recommended for reliability and for substantiality aspects and for the
optimum in field performance.
This chapter analyses the state of the art of loads and operational conditions for PV modules. Included
are sections on different load parameters. Special focus is on location specific load effects and the progress of
work related to these topics.
3.1.1. Temperature
Temperature loads are of major importance for more or less all degradation effects since it directly influences
physical and chemical reactions, and elevated temperatures accelerate such processes [15]. Especially organic
materials are affected by temperature impacts [14]. Due to this effect, temperature is one of the most relevant
stressors influencing degradation of modules in operation. PV modules always operate at elevated
temperatures, compared to ambient conditions [16] if they are not technically cooled. For the determination
of the temperature load, it is important to use the module temperature (microclimate) and not the ambient
temperature (macroclimate) since they differ significantly. The module temperature mainly depends on the
ambient temperature, irradiation, module design, wind, and installation. There are models which allow the
calculation of module temperatures with adequate accuracy using ambient climatic conditions and type
specific parameters as input factors [16, 17]. Comparing the situation at one specific location, the type of
installation has the biggest influence [18, 19]. Open rack installations typically ensure relatively low module
temperatures while roof integrated installations lead to extremely high operational temperatures due to the
insulation effect. In extreme conditions even temperatures above 100 ◦ C have been reported [20], which is of
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twofold severity. On one hand, degradation effects are extremely accelerated in such conditions. On the other
hand, the previous module qualification with standardized type approval tests becomes invalid, since type
approval only uses ‘accelerated tests’ with up to 85 ◦ C (see section 6.1). This means that these tests, compared
to the real operation conditions, not only lose entirely their acceleration, but they might also not even trigger
all degradation processes which take place under normal operation conditions.
For the most typical PV module technologies and designs, lots of measured and calculated temperature
load data is available, partly even transferred into global load maps [21] but for new module types or
application types like floating or vehicle integrated PV modules, no reliable data base for module
temperatures is available, yet.
3.1.2. Humidity
PV modules are exposed to different humidity levels in different climates. The presence or absence of water in
the ambience is together with the temperature load one of the main factors for degradation effects. Relative
humidity as main driver in several degradation mechanisms e.g. corrosion, embrittlement, discoloration,
optical and adhesion losses directly affect the lifetime and energy yield of PV modules. Many activities have
been reported on theoretical moisture ingress into the polymeric components [22] and the influence of the
ingress mainly as material defect-based research [23]. However, the interlink and proof of actual water
concentration in the fielded modules and reliable measurements methods are still under investigation [24].
Further, only few papers can be found which analyze the influence of the sole humidity conditions and their
effects on degradation/performance of modules in the field in a detailed way. Some papers include humidity
related research [4, 25] but none has been found, which has its main focus on humidity effects for PV
modules. Humidity data of local climates are available, since it is included in all geographic related data sets
and maps as e.g. the most known Köppen-Geiger climate categorization system [26]. For PV modules, the
microclimatic load is not identical with the ambient humidity conditions hence calculations using irradiation
and temperature data are necessary to estimate microclimatic humidity loads. Such calculations are partly
used to create degradation risk data sets and maps [4, 24] and supported by measurement technologies [27].
Publications and worldwide activities currently report on humidity effects on polymeric materials of PV
modules, specifically used in back sheets [14, 28]. The reported results show the importance of including
humidity loads in accelerated tests for qualifying materials for PV applications and a tendency towards test
with combined loads can be recognized. Nevertheless, it must be mentioned that the integral effect of
humidity loads on PV modules requires more dedicated research.
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thermo-mechanical behaviors of different PV modules [34, 35]. Simulation approaches are important
because of their flexibility and ability to quantify stress levels for a large variety of scenarios ranging from
process-induced stress up to field conditions.
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dust composition, suitable mitigation approaches of active and passive nature are to be selected. As active
methods cleaning solutions are applied, like manual or automatized mechanical cleaning or more advanced
electrodynamic systems [60, 61]. Optimization scenarios and economic aspects are considered within the
cleaning studies [50, 60]. Still under research are the long-term effects by the different cleaning systems on
the durability of the system and surfaces since cleaning requires cycles at least 2–4 cleanings per month in
high soiling-risk locations. In such arid regions water scarcity, high wind velocities and an increased
concentrations of airborne particles are also factors to be included in reliability considerations. Ambient
conditions and environmental loads play a major role [50, 60].
Passive mitigation solutions, such as ‘easy-to-clean’ coatings, interact with the dust layers itself to
supposedly prevent the dust to build strong bonds with the surface. There are hybrid coating solutions, being
under test [62, 63]. Interactions of coatings and deposited dust [60, 64], but also with the mechanical
cleaning methods are simulated in indoor testing. This enables to better study soiling behavior e.g. with fine
particles [65], the transmittance loss and reflection properties of solar glass with dust coverage [66–68].
The durability of material e.g. surface roughening by abrasion [58, 61, 69] or degradation effects by
accelerated testing is also under investigation, such as accelerated ageing tests of anti-soiling coatings
[70, 71].
Modelling soiling further includes approaches, such as mathematical models, numeric approximations
[72], trend analysis with data mining [73] or machine learning methods [74], as well as artificial neural
networks [75–77]. Maps showing approximations of the regional soiling risks can be generated with
Geographical Information Systems [78, 79]. Still, further research is necessary to completely cover and
understand the multidimensional issue of soiling.
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Accelerated ageing tests are widely used and address different purpose. Some general terms are important to
understand to evaluate tests and data. This chapter gives an overview of the general purpose of accelerated
aging tests and its basic terms.
• constant, representative high stress level of one or more degradation factors for a long period, in PVs for
example irradiation around the clock or constantly high temperatures
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• Increasing the stress factor(s) above normal operational stress level to apply higher doses to the sample, in
PVs for example testing at higher than usual UV-intensity or relative humidity,
• Increasing the temperature to accelerate chemical degradation processes.
All types of acceleration the natural aging come along with risks. So, it is important to be aware that
increased loads can provoke processes and effects which are not relevant for normal operation [122]. It is
equally important to consider that in most accelerated tests, the relative intensity of the different present
stressors to each other is changed in comparison to the normal operation.
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Table 1. Stress factors vs accelerated aging test and degradation modes for PV modules.
Such tests shall help to identify issues of products during production or directly after production. The aim is
to identify problematic products, and to be able to take measures in production or stop products before they
enter the market. For that purpose, it is essential that tests are quick, highly reproducible, easy to apply and
not too costly. This limits possibilities for the definition of QA tests, which is especially problematic for
products with very long expected lifetimes—as PV [126]. Nevertheless, most of the standardized tests, as
described in section 6.1 are also applied for QA purpose. In addition, several of the failure mode specific tests
described in section 6.2 are typically additionally applied for QA e.g. PID testing to qualify cells. In most
cases are DH, thermal cycling (TC) and UV testing applied by the manufacturers, sometimes even with
testing durations exceeding the requirements of the standards [127]. Due to their test durations of typically
several weeks, they do not fulfill the requirement of delivering results during production.
Another aim of QA is to test as many samples as possible. In ideal case, each sample should be tested
before it leaves production. This is unfortunately not possible with accelerated ageing tests, since they affect
the sample irreversibly and can degrade the product severely.
Besides manufacturers, sometimes QA type testing is also applied by/for investors, importers, or traders
to ensure quality, or it is requested by banks or insurance companies. Many of them have specific testing
protocols [2] which have to be applied to come into business. All these QA tests or testing sequences just
define a specific level of loads for product quality evaluation, but they do not correlate with specific
applications, climates, locations, or service lifetimes.
In PV industries, the importance and awareness of QA and especially meaningful and comparable QA
testing procedures has been increased significantly over time. A catchable result is the meanwhile established
institution of the International PV Quality Assurance Task Force (PVQAT) which leads global efforts to craft
quality and reliability standards for solar energy technologies. Now 12 Working Groups are active in PVQAT
addressing different important QA topics [128]. PVQAT already developed several inputs and proposals for
standardization of IEC level and established numerous round-robin tests or other measures to improve
comparability and know-how on accelerated testing and QA in PV.
Accelerated testing requires adequate equipment, which comes with specific properties and yet limitations.
Depending on the purpose of testing, different equipment has to be used. The following sections give
insights in the world of accelerated testing equipment with special focus on developments over the last years.
Furthermore, set-up related testing conditions, approaches and limitations are presented.
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As side note, soiling testing equipment and conditions are not included since accelerated (laboratory)
soiling testing is not seen as a typical accelerated ageing test. Soiling typically causes (partly) reversible effects
and so not classical degradation. Soiling nevertheless can influence degradation and ageing. Please see
sections 3.2.1 and 3.2.3 regarding these topics. Description of laboratory soiling setups can be found in the
literature given in section 3.2.3.
5.4. UV testing
UV testing of PV modules and materials is commonly used for qualification testing for a long time. On
module level, typically the UV exposure with a dose of 15 kWh m−2 at 60 ◦ C defined by IEC 61215 is often
used as a benchmark. The dose of the test is only comparable to approximately three months of outdoor
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exposure in moderate climates. The test is therefore only named ‘UV preconditioning’ in the IEC standards.
Different set ups are used to apply the irradiation, using Metal-Halide or Xenon lamps (Xe), fluorescent
tubes or as coming technology, LED light sources [136]. Xe sources provide a spectrum, which is close to the
solar spectrum. Consequently, Xe sources transport alongside much heat to the sample, because of its
longwave IR irradiation. To avoid the extra temperature influence by heating the sample, fluorescent tubes or
LEDs are used, even with higher UV intensities. They make it easier to test at controlled sample
temperatures. The different light sources also deliver different spectra [137], which can be problematic
especially, if results of different tests shall be compared. That is a major shortcoming for current UV testing.
Since the PV community is aware of the shortcoming of the IEC type UV exposure, typically multiples of
the 15 kWh m−2 are applied. But usually, the used doses are still far below the typical lifetime doses of
modules. One reason for that is the high cost of testing, since samples cannot be stacked as in a DH or TC
testing set-up. They rather need the full frontside area exposed to the irradiation. A further reason is the
limitation of acceleration, caused mainly by thermal effects of light sources. The limited size of many UV
testing cabinets and the importance of UV testing for polymeric components [14] are major reasons why
high dose UV testing is often only applied to smaller material samples or mini sample modules. Currently, in
the last five years since approximately 2016, polymeric backsheet materials are of special interest for industry
and research. Since backsheets are directly exposed to the environment including UV loads, occurring
failures e.g. cracks, are now studied intensively. Crack formation, one of the most common failure modes of
the backsheets, leads to safety concerns. A special type of crack, channel cracks (fragmentation) were only
observed on samples treated with UV [134].
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There are many specifications made for the salt spray test. Grouped are the tests into neutral salt spray
test, acetic acid salt spray test, copper accelerated acetic acid salt spray test, and cyclic salt spray test. The
classic salt spray test, called neutral salt spray test, originally designed for paints and coatings is commonly
used for electronical devices. It is carried out under constant spraying conditions at 35 ◦ C and with a 5% salt
solution of sodium chloride (NaCl) for several hours and up to one week. However, PV modules are found to
be quite durable in such testing conditions [110]. That, and the fact that there are limitations to the chamber,
make such test long and costly. Limitation to the chamber account to space restrictions, since modules
cannot be stacked in the chambers, because the salt mist settles vertically onto the surfaces. In recent studies,
alternatives are presented, and conditions are optimized in regard of adding demanding and realistic
alternating procedures, i.e. temperature cycling (TC) and a sequence of humid and dry times. Several UV/salt
mist/DH sequences are established to test the impact of weathering factors in combination with corrosive
atmosphere on PV modules [110]. Tests and sequence from other sectors, such as the car industry or solar
thermal research [148], do influence the test design. Tests, which are characterized by several salt spray stages,
variations of salt concentration, stages of higher and lower levels of temperatures, as well as higher and lower
levels of humidity with subsequent resting stages have been reported. They put the sample under additional
stress due to the frequently changing environment [149]. These tests can also include humidity-freeze
cycles [150].
The stipulation of appropriate accelerated ageing tests must take several parameters into account, as
described in sections 3 and 4. It has a significant influence on the outcome and therefore also on the usability
of results. This chapter will give an overview on general approaches and terms as well as ongoing
developments and discussions.
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operation. For tests addressing mechanical topics, especially the aspect ratio and often also the total
dimensions are necessary to be fixed values. The sample design also must include requirements, which occur
from the planned characterization methods to. This is of special importance if samples are used with designs
different from normal modules to enable e.g. humidity ingress monitoring.
In the next step the test parameters have to be set to ensure that the expected reaction of the sample is
enabled. Therefore, all relevant influencing loads for the physical or chemical reactions must be included. For
example, if a UV-driven degradation process is expected, but it requires the presence of H2 O for the reaction
to happen, a plausible level of water and irradiation must be ensured. The determination of testing
parameters can be supported by numerical simulation, typically using FEM or computational fluid dynamics
(CFD) [158].
Looking on the BoM of the samples, specific threshold loads for the included materials must be
identified. To know and respect the threshold loads avoids provoking processes in the accelerated tests, which
are not occurring in reality. It must be ensured that the test is performed in a load regime, which triggers
only wanted and similar to the real operational degradation. Similar induced degradation processes,
compared to the ones of outdoor operation, warrant meaningful results. The most critical load parameter for
this issue is typically temperature. Testing at too high temperatures is especially critical for organic materials.
Using too high intensities provokes unrealistic effects and leads to failures, which are not representative and
relevant for a normal operation. With testing parameters exceeding the threshold values, it is more likely to
terminate all types of samples instead of generating valuable results. The aim remains, to address a functional
and sustainable development of PV industry, see also section 6.4.
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test, a development over time is recognized [165–167] for example, with tests designed for loads on backsheet
materials. Work has also been reported including external mechanical loads into combined tests [168].
All the work shows that the definition and development of the tests, sequential or combined, require
numerical simulations to calculate the microclimatic loads during field exposure or accelerated testing. The
reason behind their need is that these parameters are defining the relevant loads for each sample and
therefore must be used as guiding parameters.
Accelerated testing has been used in PVs for a long time and there are several very established tests, which are
applied all around the world. This chapter gives general information about new developments of the most
established tests and testing purposes, which are type approval standards and failure specific tests.
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The standardized tests aim to ensure a certain quality and safety level, which is not directly linked to a
specific load or operational situation. There can neither a correlation be withdrawn beyond the title
‘Terrestrical photovoltaic…’ nor a defined lifetime. The tests focus solely on quality and design flaws and
help to identify early default and deficiency, also known as ‘infant mortality’ issues. The most common
standardized accelerated aging tests are the following:
• Damp Heat (DH) [Module Quality Test MQT 13]: exposure at 85% r.h., at 85 ◦ C for 1000 h. DH is often
used to identify degradation effects caused by high humidity and temperatures e.g. in coatings or polymers.
• Temperature Cycling (TC) [MQT 11]: exposure to 50 or 200 temperature cycles between −40 ◦ C and 85 ◦ C.
TC is used to provoke degradation related to internal mechanical stress e.g. in electrical connections or
tension in polymeric materials.
• UV preconditioning (UV) [MQT 10]: exposure to 15 kWh m−2 of UV light. It is used to provoke UV degrad-
ation effects, mainly in polymeric materials.
• Hot Spot Testing [MQT 9]: exposure to full illumination with partial shading of one cell to provoke hot
spots and test safety under these conditions.
• Humidity Freeze (HF) [MQT 12]: exposure to 10 cycles from −40 ◦ C to 85 ◦ C, at partially 85% r.h. HF is
used to test effects of freezing water and humidity on and in materials, especially porous material.
• Mechanical Load (ML) [MQT 16]: exposure to an external mechanical load of at least ±2400 Pa to test
effects of snow or wind loads.
The majority of these tests have not gone through significant changes during the last years or even
decades and they most likely neither will, because they do not aim at simulating outdoor operation. But still,
they are applied mostly all companies and institutions working on PV reliability issues. Further tests are
defined in the standards, but they are mostly not accounted as accelerated tests. A description can for
example be found in [122].
Often the standardized tests, mainly DH, TC and UV, are applied for even longer times and more cycles
as requested by the standards. Test results from DH4000, with elevated humidity and temperature conditions
for 4000 h, or TC600 and TC800, with 600 or 800 thermal cycles, are published very often with the aim to
state an elevated quality level. But it is important to mention again, that they are not directly linked to real
operational load conditions, and they especially do not differentiate between different load situations of
different applications or locations. Instead, the tests should help to identify weaknesses and issues of
materials and designs as statistical analysis shows [170]. Some tests, here especially the UV test should be
mentioned, only apply a relatively low dose of stress. The required 15 kWh m−2 only correspond to
approximately three months of outdoor operation in moderate climates. A correlation to mid- and
long-term exposure is not given, nor a correlation to more intense irradiations in other climate zones. As
infant mortality screening it might not even be sufficient for other than moderate climate zones.
Since the tests are standardized and applied for decades, comparability of results is in general expected by
the public, especially if tests are performed by accredited test labs. Nevertheless, there are severe differences,
which can lead to different results, as exemplarily older comparison of UV tests among different test labs
showed [137]. It is expected that the situation did not improve in the meantime. Recommendation on that
issue is not to change methods during the qualification of devices and not expect results to be easy to analyze
after a change. Many attributes of testing equipment and conditions have to be considered otherwise.
There have also several failure specific tests been developed and standardized but they are not completely
established. Descriptions of failure specific test can be found in section 7.2.
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A degradation effect that became very important in the last couple years is the LeTID. LeTID is currently
major focus topic of research among scientific institutions and test labs [173–175]. Here, several tests and
even standards have been developed, as to mention IEC TS 63202-4 ED1—Photovoltaic cells—Part 4:
‘Measurement of light and elevated temperature induced degradation of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells’ on
cell level. But this effect typically takes very long time to develop, and thus it is still hard to differentiate
between LeTID effects and ‘normal’ degradation effects especially during simple type approval testing.
The final goal of accelerated testing is predicting the service life of PV modules under normal outdoor
conditions. The chapter gives an overview on developments related to service life prediction (SLP) of PV
modules using data of accelerated ageing tests and the correlation of these tests with outdoor operation and
effects.
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Figure 1. Trends on the number of publications grouped into five years periods on PV/photovoltaic module degradation and
PV/photovoltaic lifetime prediction/forecast. Data generated from google scholar with the keywords only in the title to filter
papers mainly focusing on the topics.
Every block of this cycle is an input for the others e.g. starting at block one, degradation modes can be
identified based on failure mode and effect analysis studies [180] and using models, experimental design to
induce the degradation modes can be achieved. In block two, the tests are verified using accelerated testing
conditions and the generated data help to calibrate the models. The calibrated models are then applied to
predict the service life of PV modules in real operating conditions using real environmental data in block
three. The analysis can also start from the analysis of performance data (block three) of already installed
modules if available, to developing validated models (block one).
But the question remains ‘to what extent is this cycle valid?’ or ‘to what extent are the accelerated indoor
tests comparable to real life exposure?’. This indeed remains a challenging question due to the complexity of
PV module designs. Firstly, PV modules come in different technologies, with different bills of materials and
operate in different locations with very different climatic conditions. All these differences lead to a variety of
degradation modes and degradation rates [170]. Secondly, frequent changes of PV module designs,
technologies, and materials [181], represent an additional lack of understanding of the degradation modes
since new materials and technologies usually come with reliability challenges. For example, improving a
specific PV module component to be resilient to a specific degradation mode might induce a completely new
degradation mode. Such challenges and the lack of long-term understanding about the performance and
reliability of these new materials hinders the correlation of accelerated testing to real operation. In addition,
in outdoor operation PV modules experience a combination of numerous climatic stressors at the same time
in comparison to controlled conditions in indoor testing. The combination of different stressors leads to
synergetic tendencies of the induced degradation modes and might induce degradation modes not identified
during accelerated aging testing. This means that the induced degradation modes during indoor experiments
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could differ from the ones induced in real life operation hindering the correlations. The vice-versa is true,
too, due to the extreme stressors applied during accelerated aging testing, some degradation modes might be
triggered which might not really be observed in real operations.
Despite the challenges in the indoor-outdoor correlations, several research groups are working towards
these challenges, for example in [182], the authors adapted/advanced the existing standard procedures for PV
modules/components testing to optimize the testing that can simulate certain climatic conditions. They
applied time-dependent and repeating exposure to combined climatic and environmental stressors
(temperature, temperature cycles, humidity, irradiation, mechanical load, salt mist) to induce performance
losses, material degradation, and failures in test modules that resemble those effects occurring in real-life PV
installations under comparable climatic and environmental conditions. In another study [168], the authors
proposed a combined-accelerated stress test, that can simultaneously combine multiple stress factors to
mimic natural environment. This kind of simultaneous combined stress factors testing improves the
simulation of near-to field degradation modes hence allowing correlation of indoor testing to real life
operation. The bottom line here is that, to allow a good correlation of indoor accelerated testing to real life
PV module operation, accelerated testing beyond the standardized pass/fail criteria should be used.
Additionally, the authors in [25, 151, 176], have proposed and applied empirical physical models that can
help to translate indoor testing conditions to outdoor conditions. However, the models only focus on specific
stress factors applied during the accelerated testing and not on a combination of different stresses. A model
that combines numerous climatic stress-factors together with a combined stress-testing protocol could
provide a good solution for correlation of indoor testing to real-life operation and could allow more accurate
lifetime prediction based on indoor testing.
The research activity on accelerated ageing and field performance of PV modules has significantly increased
during the last decade. The increasing interest finds its causes in the growing market accompanied with the
technological development and diversification, along with the rising importance of PV for the financial
sector. The latter is demanding reliable quality and performance data. The need for such data has been
increased since reliability data has major impact on the sustainability and economy of the generated
electricity.
Field performance is the crucial parameter for all PV installations since it determines the economic
success. It is therefore essential to provide relating data in general for a successful deployment of PV modules
and in particular for quality and reliability assurance purposes. Progress has been noted in determining
operational load conditions in field use. This leads to improved availability of data sets on (environmental)
climatic conditions and microclimatic loads on the sample. That can be used to overall describe the
parameters and sample itself. This progress enables improved load and risk analysis and for example, the
creation of maps for load factors and expected degradation rates. But there is still a clear shortcoming
notable regarding the public availability of validated data. These include microclimatic data and the direct
translation from module and local data into degradation effects and degradation rates. However, there are
estimations available on the dominating processes but concluding and sound scientific explanations on
dose-response relationships and reaction kinetics are still missing. Comprehensive analysis and data sets for
upcoming technologies for example, floating PV or vehicle integrated PV, are not yet available.
Recent progress in accelerated ageing research mainly addresses the lacking correlation of accelerated tests
to real operational conditions. Different load factors have been tried to combine in tests or test sequences to
approximate the ultimate benchmark, which is the real outdoor conditions. Also, tests have been designed to
address specific failure modes and for identifying degradations effects in materials. Meanwhile, some of such
tests are commonly used and have partly even been transferred into standardized tests. In quality assurance,
typically the tests defined in IEC 61215 are still dominating, even if they cannot be related to Service Lifes or
translated into operational conditions. Often the test durations are simply multiplied to target higher quality
levels, which is critical since they anyway cannot certify for a specific degradation rate nor lifetime.
Numerical simulation tools are regularly used to support the pre-definition of testing conditions.
Especially in the ongoing development of combined and sequential testing programs with different loads
factors, simulations can help to find meaningful and (cost) efficient test designs.
Substantial progress was made in modelling of degradation rates and predicting service lifetimes. These
models include multi-step degradation calculations for PV modules. Field data are analyzed and the
(expected) dominating degradation processes predicted with statistical and physical models. For an efficient
use of these models, validated high quality data from outdoor operation is as crucial as module type specific
data from accelerated ageing tests, and derived kinetics data.
18
Prog. Energy 4 (2022) 042009 K-A Weiß et al
It is expected that there will be a continuously increasing interest in the field of accelerated ageing and
field performance research in future. This development is already driven by the financial sector and by
required sustainability assessments. If sufficient emphasis is placed on the aforementioned shortcomings and
presented limitation are carefully handled, a sound state of the art of model-based reliability, yield and
service life predictions seem within reach in the coming ten years. That said, this prediction is made under
the condition of available data, validated (material) degradation parameters and field performance data sets,
which is only to be accomplished with comprehensive and suitable field data for statistical analysis.
ORCID iDs
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