Module IV - Disaster and Disaster Risk
Module IV - Disaster and Disaster Risk
Introduction
A disaster is any event that leads to a response beyond which the affected community
can deal with locally. Disasters, like emergencies, can be man-made or natural.
Disasters are subset of emergencies and tax responding agencies beyond their
capacity. Disasters for one community may not be more than emergencies for another
community and degree of response can be like a spreading ring of concentric circles,
influencing the outer rings less and less (WHO 2005).
Objectives:
Lesson 1
Types of Disasters
There are basically two different types of disasters: natural and man-made. Natural
disasters are such things as earthquakes, tsunamis, pandemic flu outbreaks, and
tornados (see Figure 1). Man-made disasters include anything that a human being has
done to cause a disaster, such as acts of bioterrorism, hijackings, and war. The type of
response does vary in specifics, but generally, it is same for all disasters: assess,
contain, respond, and recover.
Figure 1. Ruins of houses in Aceh, Indonesia after the Boxing Day Tsunami caused by the 2004 Indian
Ocean Earthquake
Natural Disasters
Natural disasters often strike without warning, though most areas know what is “normal”
for their areas and prepare for such occurrences. Assessing is done by reviewing the
history of the region, looking at what weather and other disasters have occurred in the
past. For example, at the southern tip of Illinois through Missouri and Arkansas is a fault
line called the New Madrid Fault. The last time this fault moved and produced a major
2
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
earthquake was in 1811-1812. The disaster covered more than 50,000 square miles,
almost 10 times the size of the San Francisco earthquake in 1906. Because the
potential for another major earthquake exists and the fault is due for one, almost all
towns along the fault and through much of Illinois and Missouri are prepared to deal with
such a natural disaster.
Estimating risk is an uncertain science as it involves forecasting events for which the
time and location might be largely unknown. This uncertainty is captured mathematically
by the concept of probability.
Reducing risk can only be achieved by decreasing the contribution from one or more of
these three components. Examples of risk reduction or managing the risk in these
components are:
3
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
Hazard
A hazard is a natural or man-made event that has the potential to cause impacts to
people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, environmental assets and communities.
Without knowledge of the past, we cannot predict what might happen in the future.
Historical catalogues are used to understand the frequency of hazard events. They help
us develop synthetic event sets that represent, for example, up to 10 000 years of
events. This allows us to understand what might be possible in the future and to prepare
for events that we have not seen in our lifetime. For rarer hazards such as earthquakes,
palaeoseismological investigations play a critical role in identifying and characterizing
individual pre-historic events that make up the neotectonics record.
Exposure
Exposure refers to the elements at risk from a natural or man-made hazard event. This
could include: individuals; dwellings or households and communities; buildings and
structures; public facilities and infrastructure assets; agricultural commodities;
environmental assets; and business activity. Exposure information is about the location
and characteristics, or attributes, of each of the elements and is therefore about what is
at risk. This information feeds into a natural hazard risk analysis to identify what
elements at risk are in the location, and enough information about each of the elements
to help understand how they are likely to behave when subjected to natural and artificial
hazards.
Vulnerability
large an effect does a hazard of a certain severity have on a particular element at risk?
Vulnerability can be divided into four main areas: physical, social, economic and
system-depending on the class of elements at risk being considered.
Physical vulnerability
Physical vulnerability is the potential for physical impact on the built environment,
infrastructure or population. Information on the vulnerability of buildings and
infrastructure has been developed in countries such as the United States and in Europe,
but different building techniques, standards and materials adopted in Australia require
significant model calibration and testing under Australian conditions.
Vulnerability models of people to physical injury, known as casualty models, have also
been developed internationally based primarily on empirical data linking the likelihood of
occupants being injured or killed in the event of building damage or failure.
Take for example a residential building with brick walls and a tile roof that is subjected to
a particular level of ground motion due to an earthquake. Our models define the
probability that the building will be in one of five damage states. Each of those damage
states has a repair cost associated with it and likely level of habitability. The overall
outcomes predicted for the buildings are not necessarily correct for each specific
building, but should be representative of the overall population exposed to the same
hazard.
Empirical models these are based on post-event damage surveys and are limited
to the infrastructure surveyed and the hazard to which it was
subjected. A number of houses all subjected to the same wind
speed would only provide one point on a damage curve.
Insurance portfolio and claim data can also be used;
5
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
Engineering these are based on our knowledge of the structure and its
models components and how they will behave when loaded. This type of
model is difficult to develop and will require calibration against
empirical data. However, it permits an assessment of what
contributes most to the vulnerability, and the cost-effectiveness
of various mitigation strategies to be assessed.
Social vulnerability
Social vulnerability is nested in that the losses of an individual can impact on the whole
household, and the losses of a household can affect a whole community. Community
can be viewed as either a contained geographic area, such as a town or neighborhood,
or a group of spatially dispersed individuals who meet for a collective purpose, such as
a sporting team or theatre group.
Demographics and These factors are often needed for operational needs in the
socio-economic response phase of disasters and are easily measured
statistics, such as age, quantitatively through the Census and other datasets;
disability status,
income and motor
vehicle ownership
Social capital The social networks and resources that people can call upon
to help in times of crisis. Friends, family and neighbours play
an important role in all areas of the hazard cycle from
warnings, to evacuation, to support in recovery. Some data
is available for quantitative analysis, but the gaps need to be
met with qualitative analysis;
6
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
Economic loss
Direct tangible costs Costs resulting from the impact of the event, such as
physical damage to buildings and their contents, which have
a market value and so can be easily quantified
Indirect tangible costs Costs that result from the flow on effects of a disaster that
have a market value, such as business disruption and clean
up
Intangible costs Any direct or indirect cost that does not have a market value,
such as death and injury, loss of memorabilia, disruption to
social activities or loss of environmental assets. Intangible
costs are difficult to measure and so non-market valuation
techniques using proxy values are usually used
7
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
System vulnerability
Critical infrastructure facilities are made up of many different components that work
together to deliver services to communities. These can be electric power stations, water
treatment plants or telecommunication hubs. Some components might be more
vulnerable to hazard exposure than others. Some might be more critical to the functions
of the facility, could be a more costly component or require longer lead time to restore.
The susceptibility of a critical infrastructure facility to severe hazard in terms of damage
and service disruption is called system vulnerability.
Post-disaster surveys
Activity No. 1
A hazard assessment is concerned with estimating how often events of various sizes or
larger occur. It can address questions such as:
● What is the probability of a given flood height, wind speed, or level of earthquake
ground shaking occurring at a given location?
● What is the flood height, wind speed, or level of earthquake ground shaking for a
given return period or annual exceedance probability?
● How does the hazard vary spatially? That is, which area is more likely to
experience floods, severe wind or earthquakes?
An impact assessment might be conducted where the impact from a single hazard
scenario is assessed. The scenario may be selected based on its probability of a local
8
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
● What is the annual expected building loss from earthquake events for a given
location? How does the loss estimate change with mitigation strategies
enforced?
● Which areas will experience higher building loss from earthquakes?
● Which communities are more vulnerable to earthquake risk?
Lesson 2
9
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
Learning Content
1. Emergency Plan
2. Monitoring and Evaluation
3. Early Warning Systems
4. Survival Kits and Materials
Emergency Plan
Monitoring aims to track the steps done in the mitigation procedures and the result of
post-disaster actions. This helps the community to evaluate the compatibility of the
disaster risk reduction plans done by the government. This also serves as basis for
modifications for future disaster risk reduction planning suited to the community needs.
Early warning systems are vital for information dissemination. This serves as a warning
for the community in an upcoming hazard so that they can take the necessary
10
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
which are:
1. knowledge of the community about the risks they have;
2. monitoring and forecasting of hazards;
3. dissemination and communication methods; and
4. knowledge and capability of community members to respond when the warning
is delivered.
Activity No. 2
A. Identify the type of community-based disaster risk reduction component.
How does a community’s geographic location affect its CBRDM? Cite an example to
elaborate your answer.
______________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________
11
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
FACTOR FINDINGS
Emergency
Plan
Monitoring
and
Evaluation
Early
Warning
Systems
Survival Kits
and
Materials
Lesson 3
Learning Content
12
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) is responsible for developing the National Disaster
Risk Reduction and Management Plan (NDRRMP) which aims to provide a set of
strategies and approaches to reduce risks and manage disasters at a national level. It
serves as a guide for disaster risk reduction and management for a safer, adaptive, and
disaster resilient Filipino communities towards sustainable development.
Community-based Disaster Risk Reduction Management can adapt measures
developed by NDRRMP and tailor them based on the characteristics, experiences, and
current capacities of the community.
2. Disaster Preparedness
This is the sum of all knowledge and capacities of all stakeholders to effectively
anticipate, respond, and recover from the likely negative impacts of disasters.
3. Disaster Response
This refers to actions in response to the impacts of disaster that aims to primarily save
lives, and reduce health impacts.
4. Disaster Recovery
Recovery includes rehabilitation, restoration, and improvement of facilities and living
conditions of disaster-affected communities.
Disaster Preparedness is not isolated from and is in fact a component of Disaster Risk
Reduction and Management (DRRM). Thus, community efforts to prepare for a potential
disaster event will affect the other components of DRRM. Taking off from the
community-based disaster risk reduction management, preparedness planning involves
participation of the whole community in the disaster preparedness planning and
implementation.
that can result from the hazards in the area; as well as the vulnerable sectors and other
sources of vulnerabilities in the community. Impacts of disaster that should be
anticipated include the effects to different aspects of the community such as its people,
infrastructure and assets, food supply, and economy. Previous disaster experiences of
the community are good sources of information in disaster preparedness.
B. Resources Identification
Demographics of the community as well as the roles of existing sectors and
organizations should also be known. Aside from people, other community resources
should also be identified like sources of basic needs and services, supplies and
materials for response, evacuation, relief, and rehabilitation. Resources can include
local source of materials and manpower; and external linkages that can be tapped in
emergency situations.
C. Detailed Planning
Disaster Preparedness entails the development of a detailed Emergency Plan which
includes the tasks and roles of different community members, community-developed
Standard Operating Procedures and a list of resources needed for rescue and relief
operations. Identifying government agencies and Non-Government Organizations that
can provide assistance during rescue, relief, and recovery should also be included in
planning. It would be very helpful if data on locations of highly vulnerable sectors,
evacuation centers, fire stations, and list of hospitals and other service providers outside
the community, can be easily retrieved during an emergency. Rescuers from outside the
community that may come to assist, also need to be familiar with the locations of people
in need, and the nearest hospitals for instance.
An Early Warning System should be developed that is based on the known hazards,
and the resources of the community. Flood-prone communities for instance can develop
an audible alert system using varying siren sound duration depending on the alert level.
Communities that have a wide access to text messages, can be sent warning messages
if electricity supply and network signal is fairly reliable.
14
Climate Change & Disaster Risk
The emergency plan, roles of community members in case of an emergency, and the
early warning system in place, should be practiced by the community through drills.
Through drills, members of the community will gain better understanding on how to
respond to emergency situations. Monitoring, assessment, and evaluation of awareness
activities and drills are sources of information to improve and make the disaster
preparedness plan more adapted to the local context.
Activity No. 2
A. Identify which thematic area do the following belong: .
1. Risk and hazard maps - ________________________________
2. Strengthen rescue operations - ________________________________
3. Reconstruction of resilient buildings - ________________________________
4. Efficient insurance systems - ________________________________
5. Increase community capacity - ________________________________
C. Evaluation and synthesis.
How will community disaster preparedness affect disaster risk reduction and
disaster
management? Explain your answer.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
Reference:
● https://depositphotos.com/46963967/stock-illustration-survival-kit.html
● https://graphicriver.img.customer.envatousercontent.com/files
● https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/51/Backpack_icon.svg
● https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Conceptual-framework-for-disaster-risk-asse
ssment-adapted-from-21_fig2_317527127
● Ladds, M., Keating, A, Handmer, J and Magee. L 2017. How do disasters cost? A
comparison of disaster cost estimates in Australia. International Journal of
Disaster Risk Reduction 21 (2017)
15