Lesson 5.

4: Conditional Probability and

Independence

Learning Objectives
At the end of the lesson, you (student) should be able to:
1. Differentiate conditional and independent events in probability.
2. Solve problems using the concept of conditional probability and independence.

Materials and Equipment Needed

1. Lecture Notebook
2. Assessment Notebook
3. Black ballpen
4. Intermediate paper
5. Scientific Calculator

Learning Activities (Activating Prior Knowledge)

This activity is intended for you to cite a situation related to conditional and independent events
in probability. Use your assessment notebook to answer this part.

• Cite a situation where a conditional event and an independent event may occur in
probability.

Learning Probe (Analysis)

This activity is a follow-up to the previous activity. Use your assessment notebook to answer this
part
• Based on the previous activity, how do you know that a situation calls for a conditional or
an independent probability?

Learning Time (Acquire New Knowledge)

Suppose we have two events, A and B. In that case, a conditional event B is the event that is likely
to occur, given that the outcome of event A is already known. On the other hand, an independent
event is one in which event A's outcome does not influence the likelihood of the outcome of event
B will occur.
Two events, A and B, are independent if A does not affect B's probability of occurring. For example,
two six-sided dice, one red and one green are rolled. What is the probability that the red die shows
a prime number and the green die shows a number that is a perfect square? Since rolling the dice
3
are independent events, the probability that the red die shows a prime number is 6 since the prime
1
numbers in a die are 1,3, and 5. The probability of the green doe showing a perfect square since
3
2 3 1 1
we have 1 and 4. (6). The probability that both of these occur is 6 𝑥 3 = 6. Thus, if two events A
and B, are independent, then the probability of both events occurring is
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)

Example 1. John has two bags containing eight red balls and ten black balls each. He takes one
ball at random from each bag. Find the probability of getting a red ball from the first bag and a
black ball from the second bag.

Figure 1. Bag of balls

Image Source: https://tinyurl.com/m4m7aha8

Solution:
Since these two events are independent, we can use the formula above.
8
P(red ball from the first bag) = 18
10
P(black ball from the second bag) = 18

P(red and black) = P(red) x P(red)

8 10 80 20
P(red and black) = x = =
18 18 324 81

Example 2. A single card is drawn from a deck of cards. It is then put back in the deck, and a
second card is drawn. What is the probability that both cards diamonds?
Solution:
Since the card is placed back in the deck after the first draw, the two events are independent.
P(both cards are diamonds) = P(first card is a diamond) x P(second card is diamond)
13 13 1
P(both cards are diamonds) = 52 x 52
= 16
Example 3. Box A contains six blue balls, two red balls, and four yellow balls. Box B contains four
blue balls and ten red balls. One ball is drawn at random from each box. Find the probability that
:
a. the ball drawn from box A is blue, and the ball from box B is red
b. the drawn from box A and B are blue
c. the balls drawn are the same color
d. the balls drawn are different colors

Solutions:
a. P(blue ball from A and red ball from B) = P(ball drawn from A is blue) x P(ball drawn from
B is red)
6 10 1 5 5
P(blue ball from A and red ball from B) = x = x =
12 14 2 7 14

b. P(both balls are blue) = P(ball drawn from A is blue) x P(ball drawn from B is blue)
6 4 1 2 1
P(both balls are blue) = 12 x 14
=2x 7
=7
c. P(both balls are blue or both balls are red)
= P(red from A and B) x P(blue from A and B)

2 10 6 4
= (12 x 14
) + (12 x 14
)

1 5 1 2
= (6 x 7
) + (2 x 7)

5 1
= +
42 7

11
=
42
d. P (both balls are different colors)= P(blue from A and red from B) + P(red from A and blue
from B) + P(yellow from A and red from B) + P(yellow from A and blue from B)

6 10 2 4 4 10 4 4
=(12 x 14
) + (12 x 14
) + (12 x 14
) + (12 x 14
)

1 5 1 2 1 5 1 2
=(2 x 7
) + (6 x 7) + (3 x 7
) + (3 x 7)

5 1 5 7
=14 + 21
+ 21 + 21

31
=42

The probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred is called a
conditional probability. The conditional probability of B, given that A has occurred is
 n(A∩ B)
P(B|A)= 𝑛(𝐴)

Example 4. A pair of dice is tossed. Find the probability of getting a sum of 7 given that exactly
one die shows a 4.

Solution:
A = { one die shows a 4}
= {(1,4),(2,4),(3,4),(5,4),(6,4),(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,5),(4,6)}
B = { the sum of the dice is 7}
= { (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1)}
(A ∩ B) = {(3,4), (4,3)}
n(A∩ B) 2 1
P(B|A)= = =
𝑛(𝐴) 10 5

Example 5. A blue die and a black die are thrown.

a. What is the probability that the sum of the dice is less than 6 if the blue die resulted in a
number less than 3?
b. What is the probability that the sum is at least 9 if the black die came up as 5?
c. What is the probability that the sum of the dice is 8 if a 5 came up on at least one die?

Solution :
We let (A,B) be the result in throwing a blue die and a black die respectively.
a. A={ the blue die is less than 3}
= {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)}
B={ the sum of the dice is less than 6}
= {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(3,1),(3,2),(4,1)}

(A ∩ B) = {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3)}
n(A∩ B) 7
P(B|A)= 𝑛(𝐴)
= 12

b. A = {the black die is 5}

= {(1,5),(2,5),(3,5),(4,5),(5,5),(6,5)}
B = {the sum of the dice is at least 9}
= {(3,6),(4,5),(4,6),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6)}

(A ∩ B) = {(4,5),(5,5),(6,5)}
n(A∩ B) 3 1
P(B|A)= 𝑛(𝐴)
= 6
= 2

c. A = { at least one die is 5 }

= {(1,5),(2,5),(3,5),(4,5)(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,5)}
 B = {the sum of the dice is 8}
={(2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2)}

(A ∩ B) = {(3,5),(5,3)}
n(A∩ B) 2
P(B|A)= 𝑛(𝐴)
= 11

Example 6. A bag contains eight red marbles and 12 blue marbles. A marble is selected and not
put back; then, a second marble is selected. What is the probability of selecting one red and one
blue marble?
Solution:
• Case 1. The first marble is red and the second marble is blue.
P(first is red, second is blue) = P(first is red) x P(second is blue)
8 12 2 12 24
= 𝑥 = 𝑥 =
20 19 5 19 95

• Case 2. The first marble is blue and the second marble is red
P(first is blue, second is red) = P(first is blue) x P(second is red)
12 8 3 8 24
= 𝑥 = 𝑥 =
20 19 5 19 95

Since the two selecting a red marble followed by a blue marble and selecting a blue marble
followed by a red marble are mutually exclusive events, we add the individual probabilities to get
the probability of one occurrence.
P(one red and one blue) = P(first is red, second is blue) + P(first is blue, second is red)
24 24 48
= 95
+ 95 = 95