Derivados
Derivados
Derivatives Markets
2020/21
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Future and forward prices
3.3. Hedging with futures
3.4. Hedging market risk
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Futures – Definition
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• Type of asset;
• Quantity;
• Exchange where is traded;
• Where it can be delivered;
• When it can be delivered;
• How it can be delivered;
• Margins.
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Type of asset
• Commodities (1859);
• Currencies (1972);
• Bonds (1975);
• Indexes (1982);
• Interest rates (1984);
• Shares (1988);
• Swaps (1991);
• Etc...
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Examples of Futures Contracts
Agreement to:
• Buy 100 oz. of gold @ US$400/oz. in December (NYMEX)
• Sell £62,500 @ 1.5000 US$/£ in March (CME)
• Sell 1,000 bbl. of oil @ US$20/bbl. in April (NYMEX)
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• Quantity:
‒ Future on shares Euronext – 100 shares
‒ Future on Eurobunds Eurex– 1 Bund with notional of 100.000 Euros
‒ Currency future GBP/USD Euronext.Liffe – 62.500 GBP
• Quality:
‒ Future on shares Euronext – shares listed in Euronext
‒ Futures on Eurobunds Eurex – Bunds with a maturity longer than 6 and half years and before 11
years
• Delivery date:
‒ Futures on shares Euronext
‒ Last trading day: 3rd Tuesday on the delivery month
‒ Delivery date: 3 working days after the last trading day
‒ Currency Futures GBP/USD Euronext.Liffe
‒ Last trading day: 2 working days before the 3rd Tuesday of the delivery month
‒ Delivery date: 3rd Wednesday of the delivery month
• Delivery place:
‒ “Copper Grade A Futures” of LME – warehouses approved by LME in the UK: Avonmouth, Goole,
Hull, Liverpool, Newcastle and Sunderland
‒ Coffee futures of BM&F – warehouses approved by the exchange in S.Paulo, Paraná and Minas
Gerais.
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Rights and obligations
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Volume and Open Interest
• Questions:
‒ When a new trade is completed what are the possible effects on the
open interest?
‒ Can the volume of trading in a day be greater than the open
interest?
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Settlement prices
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Forward Instruments and Markets
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Future and forward prices
3.3. Hedging with futures
3.4. Hedging market risk
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Convergence of Futures to Spot and Basis
• The future price converges towards the spot price as the delivery date
approaches.
• The difference between the future and spot prices is called the basis. At
the delivery date the basis is zero.
Spot Price
Futures Price
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• Basis refers to the difference between the price of a cash asset and the
futures price
Basis = Cash price – futures price
• For a hedger the important measure for the basis is not the difference
between the spot price for the asset underlying the futures contract and
its future price.
• The important basis is the difference between the price of its cash asset
and the futures price:
‒ An unhedged investor is exposed to price risk;
‒ A hedged investor is exposed to basis risk;
‒ Essentially, a hedger with futures exchanges price risk for basis risk.
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Futures and Spot Prices – Basis and Hedging
• Combining the definition of basis with the cost of carry model we find a
theoretical value for the basis:
Basis = Carry returns – Carry costs
• Due to this and to convergence some of the change in basis is
predictable.
• If the basis were perfectly predictable at the end of the hedging horizon
there would be a perfect hedge.
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• The question is ‘Do future prices represent the expected future spot
prices?’
‒ Market imperfections;
‒ Risk premiums.
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Unbiased expectations theory
Ft = E(St)
• With non carry assets the futures prices reflect expected supply and
demand of the commodity at the delivery date. As so the future price in
non carry commodities does reflect the market’s expectation of the
future spot price.
• According to the CAPM if the asset underlying the future contract has no
systematic risk, then the future price is an unbiased estimate of the
expected future spot price (see proof in following slides).
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Market imperfections
• With carry assets future prices are determined by the cost of carry model
that takes into account the carry costs, the carry returns and the spot
price of the commodity.
• Any expectation about the expected future spot prices is incorporated
into the spot price.
• As we incorporate market imperfections (transaction costs, bid and ask
spreads, etc) into the cost of carry model we verify that the future
expected spot price lies within a range of possible prices.
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Risk premiums
• Some theories state that futures prices are biased indicators of what
future spot prices will be.
• They predict the existence of a futures risk premium, representing the
difference between the market’s expectation of the future spot price and
the future price.
• Keynes (1930) was the first to propose such theory and stated that:
‒ Hedgers are short futures and are willing to lose a little to obtain
protection against a possible decrease in price;
‒ Speculators are long futures, but they demand a premium for
assuming such a position.
• Therefore, according to this theory the futures price must be bellow the
spot price that investors expect to prevail at delivery.
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Normal backwardation
Expected
Future spot
price
E(St)
Futures price
Time
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Contango
• When hedgers are long on futures and speculators are short on futures is
designated as contango. In contango markets the futures price lies
above the expected future spot price and Ft > E(St)
• According to the CAPM if the asset underlying the future contract has
negative systematic risk, then the future price is higher than the
expected future spot price (see proof in following slides).
Price
Futures price
E(St) Expected
Future spot
price
Time
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or
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Future prices and expected future spot prices
• Several other aspects have been put forward to explain the relation
between the futures prices, future expected spot prices and changes
between normal backwardation and contango such as:
‒ Seasonality of hedging activities on non carry commodities;
‒ Fluctuations in the supply of money (money markets);
‒ Fluctuations in the supply of the commodity (physical markets);
‒ Hedgers care about the selling prices but also the purchasing prices (they can
have simultaneously long and short futures positions).
• Empirical evidence is mixed and does not present a strong supporting
case for the biased indicator theory, although more recent studies report
the existence of risk premiums.
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3.1. Introduction
3.2. Future and forward prices
3.3. Hedging with futures
3.4. Hedging market risk
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Long Hedge
• The hedge is called long because the hedger assumes a long position on the
futures market (buys futures).
• Hedger is short in the cash market:
‒ Has to buy the underlying asset on a future date at its future spot price (purchasing
price);
‒ Short sold the underlying asset;
‒ Sold a forward on the asset.
• In terms of risk variation, he seeks protection from a future increase in the price
of the underlying asset.
• With a long hedge, the hedger aims at locking in the purchasing price of the
underlying asset.
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Short Hedge
• The hedge is called short because the hedger assumes a short position on the
futures market (sells futures).
• Hedger is long in the cash market:
‒ He owns the asset and wants to sell it on a future date at its future spot price (selling
price).
‒ He still does not own the underlying asset, but it will produce it and wants to sell it on
a future date at its future spot price (selling price).
‒ Bought a forward on the asset.
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Simple hedges with futures – locking-in prices
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Simple hedges with futures – locking-in prices
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• What happens to the furniture producer and the forestry firm if in the
delivery date the spot price of lumber (ST) is:
‒ $7/ bd.ft.?
‒ $4/ bd.ft.?
‒ $5/ bd.ft.?
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Simple hedges with futures – locking-in prices
• Results for December Spot Price ST = $7/bd.ft.:
• Furniture producer:
‒ Cash market:
Buys 5.000bd.ft. of timber for $7/bd.ft. Pays = 5.000 x $7 = - $35.000
‒ Futures market (settlement):
(ST – F0) x QF x N* = ($7 - $5) x 1.000 x 5 = + $10.000
‒ Net position = -$35.000 + $10.000 = -$25.000
‒ Average purchasing price = F0 = $25.000 / 5.000 = $5
• Forestry firm:
‒ Cash market:
Sells 5.000bd.ft. of timber for $7/bd.ft. Receives = 5.000 x $7 = + $35.000
‒ Futures market (settlement):
(F0 – ST) x QF x N* = ($5 - $7) x 1.000 x 5 = - $10.000
‒ Net position = $35.000 - $10.000 = $25.000
‒ Average selling price = F0 = $25.000 / 5.000 = $5
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• Forestry firm:
‒ Cash market:
Sells 5.000bd.ft. of timber for $4/bd.ft. Receives = 5.000 x $4 = + $20.000
‒ Futures market (settlement):
(F0 – ST) x QF x N* = ($5 - $4) x 1.000 x 5 = + $5.000
‒ Net position = $20.000 + $5.000 = $25.000
‒ Average selling price = F0 = $25.000 / 5.000 = $5
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Simple hedges with futures – locking-in prices
• Results for December Spot Price ST = $5/bd.ft.:
• Furniture producer:
‒ Cash market:
Buys 5.000bd.ft. of timber for $5/bd.ft. Pays = 5.000 x $5 = - $25.000
‒ Futures market (settlement):
(ST – F0) x QF x N* = ($5 - $5) x 1.000 x 5 = $0
‒ Net position = -$25.000 + $0 = -$25.000
‒ Average purchasing price = F0 = $25.000 / 5.000 = $5
• Forestry firm:
‒ Cash market:
Sells 5.000bd.ft. of timber for $5/bd.ft. Receives = 5.000 x $5 = + $25.000
‒ Futures market (settlement):
(F0 – ST) x QF x N* = ($5 - $5) x 1.000 x 5 = $0
‒ Net position = $25.000 + $0 = $25.000
‒ Average selling price = F0 = $25.000 / 5.000 = $5
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Long and short hedge – basis risk
• All these reasons create differences in the spot price and the futures
price when the hedge is closed:
‒ Remember we only have convergence of the future and spot prices on the
delivery date of the futures contracts.
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• The basis is the extent to which the spot price of the asset to be hedged
exceeds the futures price of the contract used for hedging.
• Summarizing:
b=S–F
bt = St - Ft,T t < T.
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Long and short hedge – basis risk
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t0 t T
• At time t:
‒ We buy the asset and pay St;
‒ We liquidate the long position in the future and obtain:
Ft – F0
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Long and short hedge – basis risk
St − (Ft – F0) = bt + F0
where
bt = St – Ft
• At time t, St ≠ Ft (we are not at the delivery date). Then, we do not know the
exact result from the transaction because we do not know bt.
• Observe that in the previous cases, since the delivery of the futures contract
coincides with the moment at which we buy the asset, St = Ft, and, then, bt = 0,
fixing the price to be paid as F0.
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• On June 8th, a firm knows it will have to buy 20.000 oil barrels (NS) at the
end of November.
• The firm looses money if the oil price increases (short in the cash
market).
• The size of a futures contract (QF) is 1.000 barrels and it delivers on the
third Friday of each month.
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Long and short hedge – basis risk example
• The firm must buy futures contracts that deliver immediately after the
day at which the transaction occurs, that is, December.
• The number of futures contract to buy (N*) is 20.000/1.000 = 20.
• On June 8th, December futures on oil trade at F0 = $18/barrel.
• Oil is finally bought at November 25th, when its price is St = 20 $/barrel.
• At November 25th, December futures trade at Ft = $19,1/barrel.
• Observe that bt = St – Ft = $20 – $19,1 = $0,9 ≠ 0.
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‒ Because of the initially agreed buy, in the cash market the firm pays:
‒ The firm bought futures at $18, that now must sell at $19,1, obtaining:
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Long and short hedge – basis risk example
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At t, when the purchase is made in the cash Mkt and the futures are closed,
= F0,T + bt
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Long hedge – basis risk example
At t, when the purchase is made in the cash Mkt and the futures are closed,
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At t, when the purchase is made in the cash Mkt and the futures are closed,
= F0,T + bt
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Short hedge – basis risk example
At t, when the purchase is made in the cash Mkt and the futures are closed,
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F0,T + bt
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Forward Instruments and Markets
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Future and forward prices
3.3. Hedging with futures
3.4. Hedging market risk
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Stock indices
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Portfolios
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Changing the beta
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Fund has:
• Portfolio of financial assets worth $5 million;
• Beta of portfolio is 1,5.
Specification of futures on the S&P:
• Value of S&P 500 is 1.000;
• One futures contract is for delivery of $250 times the index.
What position in the futures contracts on the S&P 500 is necessary to hedge
the portfolio?
What is the size of the position to take on the future contracts?
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Example – Case #1: Hedging with S&P futures
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Fund has:
• Portfolio of financial assets worth $5 million;
• Beta of portfolio is 1,5.
Specification of futures on the S&P:
• Value of S&P 500 is 1.000;
• One futures contract is for delivery of $250 times the index.
What position in the futures contracts on the S&P 500 is necessary to
reduce the beta of the portfolio to 0,75?
What is the size of the position to take on the future contracts?
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Example – Case #2: Reducing the β with S&P futures
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Fund has:
• Portfolio of financial assets worth $5 million;
• Beta of portfolio is 1,5.
Specification of futures on the S&P:
• Value of S&P 500 is 1.000;
• One futures contract is for delivery of $250 times the index.
What position in the futures contracts on the S&P 500 is necessary to
increase the beta of the portfolio to 2,0?
What is the size of the position to take on the future contracts?
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Example – Case #3: Increasing the β with S&P futures
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Bibliography
• HULL, J. (2018): Options, futures and other derivatives. Editorial Pearson, 9ª edición.
• WHALEY, R.(2006): Derivatives. Markets, Valuation and Risk Management, John Wiley and
Sons, Nueva York.
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