Probability/ random sampling

Probability
means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a random event. The value is expressed from zero to one.
Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict how likely events are to happen.
The meaning of probability is basically the extent to which something is likely to happen. This is the basic probability theory, which is also used in
the probability distribution, where you will learn the possibility of outcomes for a random experiment. To find the probability of a single event to
occur, first, we should know the total number of possible outcomes.

Probability Definition in Math

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to occur. Many events cannot be predicted with total certainty.
We can predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e. how likely they are to happen, using it. Probability can range in from 0 to 1, where 0
means the event to be an impossible one and 1 indicates a certain event. Probability for Class 10 is an important topic for the students which
explains all the basic concepts of this topic. The probability of all the events in a sample space adds up to 1.
Example
when we toss a coin, either we get Head OR Tail, only two possible outcomes are possible (H, T). But if we toss two coins in the air, there could
be three possibilities of events to occur, such as both the coins show heads or both show tails or one shows heads and one tail, i.e.(H, H), (H, T),
(T, T).

Formula for Probability

The probability formula is defined as the possibility of an event to happen is equal to the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes and the total
number of outcomes.
Probability of event to happen P(E) = Number of favourable outcomes/Total Number of
outcomes
Sometimes students get mistaken for “favourable outcome” with “desirable outcome”. This is the basic formula. But there are some more
formulas for different situations or events.

Types of Probability
There are three major types of probabilities:

 Theoretical Probability
 Experimental Probability
 Axiomatic Probability

Theoretical Probability
It is based on the possible chances of something to happen. The theoretical probability is mainly based on the reasoning behind probability. For
example, if a coin is tossed, the theoretical probability of getting a head will be ½.

Experimental Probability
It is based on the basis of the observations of an experiment. The experimental probability can be calculated based on the number of possible
outcomes by the total number of trials. For example, if a coin is tossed 10 times and heads is recorded 6 times then, the experimental probability
for heads is 6/10 or, 3/5.

Axiomatic Probability
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms are set which applies to all types. These axioms are set by Kolmogorov and are known
as Kolmogorov’s three axioms. With the axiomatic approach to probability, the chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of the events can be
quantified. The axiomatic probability lesson covers this concept in detail with Kolmogorov’s three rules (axioms) along with various examples.
Conditional Probability is the likelihood of an event or outcome occurring based on the occurrence of a previous event or outcome.

Probability of an Event
Assume an event E can occur in r ways out of a sum of n probable or possible equally likely ways. Then the probability of happening of the
event or its success is expressed as;
P(E) = r/n
The probability that the event will not occur or known as its failure is expressed as:
P(E’) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)
E’ represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can say;
P(E) + P(E’) = 1
This means that the total of all the probabilities in any random test or experiment is equal to 1.

What are Equally Likely Events?

When the events have the same theoretical probability of happening, then they are called equally likely events. The results of a sample space
are called equally likely if all of them have the same probability of occurring. For example, if you throw a die, then the probability of getting 1 is
1/6. Similarly, the probability of getting all the numbers from 2,3,4,5 and 6, one at a time is 1/6. Hence, the following are some examples of
equally likely events when throwing a die:

 Getting 3 and 5 on throwing a die

 Getting an even number and an odd number on a die
 Getting 1, 2 or 3 on rolling a die
are equally likely events, since the probabilities of each event are equal.

Complementary Events
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which states that an event will occur or not. Like a person will come or not come to your
house, getting a job or not getting a job, etc. are examples of complementary events. Basically, the complement of an event occurring in the
exact opposite that the probability of it is not occurring. Some more examples are:

 It will rain or not rain today

 The student will pass the exam or not pass.
 You win the lottery or you don’t.

Probability Theory
Probability theory had its root in the 16th century when J.Cardan, an Italian mathematician and physician, addressed the first work on the topic,
The Book on Games of Chance. After its inception, the knowledge of probability has brought to the attention of great mathematicians.
Thus, Probability theory is the branch of mathematics that deals with the possibility of the happening of events. Although there are many
distinct probability interpretations, probability theory interprets the concept precisely by expressing it through a set of axioms or hypotheses.
These hypotheses help form the probability in terms of a possibility space, which allows a measure holding values between 0 and 1. This is
known as the probability measure, to a set of possible outcomes of the sample space.

Probability Density Function

The Probability Density Function (PDF) is the probability function which is represented for the density of a continuous random variable lying
between a certain range of values. Probability Density Function explains the normal distribution and how mean and deviation exists.
The standard normal distribution is used to create a database or statistics, which are often used in science to represent the real-valued variables,
whose distribution is not known

Probability Terms and Definition

Some of the important probability terms are discussed here:
Term Definition Example

Sample Space The set of all the possible outcomes 1. Tossing a coin, Sample
to occur in any trial Space (S) = {H,T}
Term Definition Example

2. Rolling a die, Sample Space

(S) = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Sample Point It is one of the possible results In a deck of Cards:

 4 of hearts is a sample point.

 The queen of clubs is a
sample point.

Experiment or A series of actions where the The tossing of a coin, Selecting a

Trial outcomes are always uncertain. card from a deck of cards, throwing
a dice.

Event It is a single outcome of an Getting a Heads while tossing a coin

experiment. is an event.

Outcome Possible result of a trial/experiment T (tail) is a possible outcome when a

coin is tossed.

Complimentary The non-happening events. The Standard 52-card deck, A = Draw a

event complement of an event A is the heart, then A’ = Don’t draw a heart
event, not A (or A’)

Impossible Event The event cannot happen In tossing a coin, impossible to get
both head and tail at the same time