bs q | c7 I> Padamental cronting —Poncipte were ace in yet “tan, Ane lin | nk | + Tf fed [4 ie Band Bet dependent wlgiden!, ip’ ae= ate eok qucchon| sbetdted weeds” leuk as ““alven Hat ® lis Condchonal — prohabi ly | Ide J tT ‘ne eaqaitiorall | sede peg Hens Aa) prebhbi hab) a [PS probability ‘ennaitignn { } | u \ } | Ast owt a | er Pet Bl | | Tal | cal) = cane) | PP) | lp talay = coda) fot Hey | : HI t a apt Rept Eqoh | Trial | [a me tehebillty! + | Mo :Negatwe Binomiat Oiotribytion Conditions * = Succes or tlre: ~ probability idindepandgat = «th succecs on ath tial The use of thic dictrihution ic to determine the number or Cy aecc 4G Cpecipic rial: pe (1d (r-|) Pm —the® iC a_condition , FOC evample_, “Sth head m the THh tcc” ee we can wee Sin lav fo binowial == (r= vr cusry G=Ny5 POP IS Teil z] dichi ution phg TA sree ing a vin ecvkk G64 (5)" (#5) Cos =O +o hale a chance of each Puce ‘ecwbaboility, | oF | swore (acquiring) head ) = Geomervic MSs bution Conditions : —Cuccece oC paile = poohability is independent / mpi cuccecg on mth trial 0 iech pile Om ath tial8 © a $ Tl. P © A iS] ait Tos 4 il g é v= fi : % a 4 wY u & a oF : an 4 rape et | 3 & aA |e a) -rO o. Fe et 5 = , = < = = ¥ | ae AKT Lo | ca y ; hl 3 TA & uy cr 2 = =e io 2 u Gl a ¢ + | iN e cee! e oe ue a 6 az e Ak ea al y | « “ = “f a Leh Fle elslel al. toe Sel ta te iP yid dee FEUER ESS f Sys . i. we ‘I i = =e 4: we =14 Ls a we az $ ar > ote ete ete2 : e 3 5 PEAS ne e BS Ls . 28 ve, Ge alo ae fale cd eo as pete tT et SSH ee i a ere a he “lye Ta ete sree elt i ac ee ce l nm 0 | iS 2 2 ® & el elt dk [i “ oS tatatatat 321 2 - Rack @ ust P @ yuk420 De 1s) FP(ES“77) cB | PC-rz)-° ae ae P(x > 17D ) = P(e > 49) RC ras)r D+ Ide Px 12) +P [=> -21u)PC PZL SHI YR 8HE SHB a > Pee 9) = H8 19) vay 87 = 0- Ad - 2-243 Oat? lL e =} — De : oO FS = 4 ® da > 11) # PC ) ab $e Ha 2} § pa ehado | | BCS) © p- 0GO8B 2, 13 cat least) 200 faye PC «| 4990) = )- P< 200) 206 roca) ( nesta p= 9884 eo j-rp@sq= oN)! A) | pC go ex fo) * (ae 041020 Ke xo = Steyn { elet®. ax P(a4x4 4 -" ts 2 tx) eae4 athe)Pe pr. — sucess amet pict p= nvmber Agrence between thic and negative dictribtion | gemmetic dekormines either “rich " cuaecs of Pale in ea tial ee Satempte perce a Mececseyl call Gren? p= 005 et qz_I- 905 * 0-45 p= (045) (0°05) *0-d407 LG a tea laa Wt 0-46-0-95_096 O4 0-0¢ binormniol dictrbution can ctill be applied tot (o45)" (005° (0-08) =0- 0907 Since pire} Ace at Lypetbability of caccesspul oftempt unguececcryl_aite m|skC Multinowal distabvhon Conditime~ > pabah, lity is independent — move Hran 2 ovtromed pro each piak Tea TP CaYY PLY s PLEIN itt tral om Be given ® { elgic! = times choon Plair) = 0-4 # CAC) =% Plb) = 0-2 #(y 73 Hoon) <0-4 & (ath) <1 {seis PU) = 0-1 #(4)=2= [toll | # be Campes /taate|= 4 Cay (oa (69) fa LY = [7 povinl? r-s° pi) = oe = 3/0 fea BH pide Ba pg Ht POY Fore ae ie (0-S¥(.0-)* (0-2)! = 0-195 Continues Probably eam —‘Distriby hon -it has a probaleilty OF 26D oF accuming enact ay 7 rhe valyec > ~ He pobebilig, oicketion ceawol be given in bole/ pm , rather ig ig glphical Form = toll gre or He graph shod be 1- = deol with length , dictates, area, ete Dicerere, Con Fino ve | i note? when ¥ is whl | pane YC Decimal optinuax it drec not voter ip Heve ic oa endvink of the interval oy not: p(aex£b)= p(aexeb)+ Plx=b) = PlatxeP) Plax tb) = P(ac¥eb)~The _rorma_uved in continous diccrete pababilty iC 0 puretion oe tne vumerical valvec of +e conttinuouc vanable x pad ac ch weld be represeated, bp £04): - 40x) - is vevatig called He probability descrip punctot of siotphy foe dency —_yunction of: : conditionc + a bab lib, i¢ alyaye 0-1 ) 4) 2 0 (no_ negative ) 2) A fSdy Fl “0 8) gers bye ie: £(#) dy a b ro "a a fray a O deb lex-| leex\ F ie 04% 0 otherwice find > a) p(x 40-75) b) P(x 40-4) a) foe) (xt) Ox os hues = SL =0-4g y=0 52 Hoy ROM Ox = ge fur) =r % fe) dy 75a(x 0-75) = (f dx. pee eee: — Plex d 0-75) = Fide +4) p(¥40-75) =| 0-7 by eG A od = (PT bode 3 opsMd x? Fay eoh\i = ta (yok g-ik is Ya (x-h) Cremeral Form | Av + Dx Ey 4 fF =O tape thy tF =ONormal Distribution ake. GCaxsian Distribution (acl Teiderich gauxe , pom chy OF repeated erro) mit ig ame most important contnunds probabil distribution ‘a the entice pild w statistic. - tre graph is called nommal cme 5 bell shaped: decerbec natural ghenomeda , industry Le receatch ~ mathematical equation gor this Aictbytion clepende depends opor the paraacterc * mean + standacct deviation AA = mean o- = chandord deviation > Chandard deration’ tells on avevagt, how far each Vdlue KCC pom +e mean: me M the dencity puction of the gormal random variable L ~'h (Se) &) See eel @ oe 0 {an Properhes of Normal conve 1) the mode, is the point on +ne norizonta) axic where tHe erie iS aA Maximum , oclte at mean LT. (4)2) the curve ic Syametric about a verhea) axic twagh the mean: xT syametic 2) he ronal curve approaches He hwiaental vic acymptofcaly a we pruced in either direction away prom te mean: a cide aot | overlap Nahe oral area under +he conve and above +e horizontal ic equal to | _ * cHne curve oF any continuovs provabilty aictri bution ar dencity Eunction ic conttructed ¢o that +e area vader te CONE bounded ty the two ordincttec x =x, ob x=%2 , thus, the normal cove is aa + AA [*2 Sap ON — sets rt ~ tabulation oF normal curve aveac ave recommendeat for quick rerenence — por_every normal random vaviable X _ there is equiglent+ random vaviable Z wth mean O and variance | ip vGing, hic mest inttgration is not nececcary: aa Sy aera ¥, Mm 2 al Aloe | | | Stand avd norma) | dictriovtion = jo tome pf “a” +e mean is sero-— Hawcpetmation to 2-ccore vecule jn tlenaepad minal Aictribution « Normal Seo TOOT Statdard Normal Table — sor finding complative area underx the chandard normal curve - 702 arenoce ramCAL ans ¥ Ams A omined) Ara Uae te Nara Cane Is Som wos vo z=)! = = = = S|; ime = voor = |} a fos oo = owe ‘aise ae Z ous m6 a» a = one aS om Z| by a ces os ~ os oo mo =) ome is ee an me os or ts a ap ‘ out 1093 1075-1086 tony OS vee aan 1251 1901 oo ee token ‘be m= oS oe! ne prmern seed a8 ama ATT . ~~ ms St Soe mest 32s oH = ae ~ mm pe 28 aT oat at 33 st oon Im io ie ko sn sm ee 2 i 350 3018 20h) 28691 a aa ee ee a8 mo hs or an a se ty oo an 0D = so fe Mts oe ou a mo fae or outRHI A= 50) 9 = 10 PC accmes)= 2 valuec between Wand (22 - y | | 2 5D eli sec | nee ee Dun s : -O5 op Fe = wet PUBL XL 2) 4 4 4 4 x 1 =P on bee ee aah = | PIM |= 45-50 = 9-5 : ¢ J ¢ To rPples+ay + plas} =0- BORA = 0- 3069 1b “| la] papal by _caluluc ete ah TT = 3u2 : BoE at LJ weer ae) 7 Fens ‘a a4 = \* ow Se Salk = 1 P(2gh Zh) = 1] = 0° BI} 1 0; 1075yet fo DS P( bulb burn¢ ) wetween 78 | kh 824 as BO | “80 a . 7 | 0-55 0| 0-BS = to 7 Ba | pecxc env) 2 a = |- 6-85 = elope tater 0; p44 - D*2412 ost FF eiebe 20 ( betuecn wean and to le ~ e - +o right oF valve ot sali | efveb= lPGes) fh | @ (05) + cnt vS1094 > 5 (nist) | Lt | fo CBEIO 7 mole + rh Ae yr SIRE shit >| ryat Wy mtee #4 Specifications on aidmelters 2O+—- lo-t cles dL * 2:0 v= 0/005 3-0} +1 bot | Ee | | +.3-/01 =D R(x r2)= 0/0928 -|2-|44 [ao at Pox on 2) 7 Honss ving cal. tech: ‘Mys 344 0-022B+ 0-022 = 0: 0450 mcky bk ob-4 yiyeed 4° t%] | RC4 YT 0100275 pe Cate PC -2. YFo a5 Ls saeal, le 0-05. babi lity oficteibution Wat offen concerAs ‘| Some Specific evert happens. inyasl4 anol indepencenHy at a constant ae p(x =5 =f bib * 2 4 = 0-34 * 2 compute POxE 16) wth Az AD o| 5 p(x wl) = 1FP «2/10 ee aptal = = (unchaded area} : IFT eel = 0-974 0ew 4% (yt brs ~5*%) 2 9.42 ) a ae a is re Ae X x = Hea y +9 | | ea,dome Probeabilitiy Digtri bution IF x ard Y oe tun dicetete panlom variables, tne probability, dictsbstin can be preceuted by a puiction od valvec (44) f(xy )~ P(X-%, YF y) Cnditions that FG. > 6 a pint pebability distri bvhon ¢ blag) = 0 gee all Cay) 1 pegative probably, a Sy F (my) =! ~comngtion = | a Xx, Fy = 46,9) Ex.1) Deal two cards from a well-shuffled deck. Let the random variable X be t ber of aces dealt and let the random variable y be the number of face cards dealt. Find f(x, y) and calculate the probability that the hand will contain more aces than face cards. re vale for Guy) so agit 4 : ok ee Noel KE aCe | Cands W™ face cardc tthe leankc (the cect inthe get Hat 5c not jncleled in |4he Mopuived ) chia conde = 5A 4) Foon) (4ex) (ACI (90 Cla-9) ap oa neo) a to as —e—o oa electing rae doltn it on thei) Caide/ Technique * Fecm via op wabobilty= Tanerbte Chama AN tescible otcemeb) P(x>4) pacible me value (%,4)= (1), (1,0) ,04,0) (019,002, CLLY fay) =(Cx)(ncy) (30. CO-x-¥)) 5a.co DY) = 0-48: Ae a Poy =4lnove$0) 4Ch0 = Ot sy jl i aa $(a10) 50-008 al PO. xty 4 a = limit $= =D-y £092). oot £(0,1)7 79 FUs1 Y= 040 Aly) = =/Ol aah 7 just one dhe radi, instead oF | dedmal Ex. 2) Two refills for a ballpen are selected at random from a box that contains 3 blue refills, 2 red refills and 3 greenrefills. f X is the number of blue refills, and Y is the number of red refills selected, find (a) the joint probability function f (x, y) and (b) P(X+Y41) a. repille a) 46us)= cx) (2C4)(2CA-*9)) 6c «6 other pocmat #0)= 29) (Bey) a a ®) pty 21)= ef los) = 0-40-34 + 0:21 70-04 —_—*Marginal Distribotion 4) & h(y) — margina? — distribytion When xt 4 ore eantinonuc carom variablec , summations ore replved by integral The marginal dlistnbubon of x and y alone iss gx) > 34 f(y) and bly) = Sf Cx,y) $49) 9. | +96 marginad dictrivuhin glebalyae_|is- 05% | (ae |e ye Poa Sek ably Aishriton ‘it ou yi ee 0-0F E040 Se0H) Sz01l Ex. 1) Two refills for a ballpen are selected at random from a box that contains 3 blue refills, 2 red refills and 3 greenrefills. f X is the number of blue refills, and Y is the number of red refills selected, determine g(x) and h(y)Ex.1) Ho AGyy)= Gey) ree X2,170% 2 y= 0412 find: “2p a) P (Xé2, Y=1) B) POP2 I 1) ma) pcx 42, Yel) c)P(X>Y) 4 = £00) +f Pet i) d)P(X+¥=4) Z4 * 5 ee eee x by P (x22, 94) rf (ad + £(4,1) tal ai 3" 56, c) P(x>y ) af (0) +£(2,.0 (3,9) 44 (2119+ £(a.)> $03.2) jtialal, ala Lat, [db 2 30 30 * |p BD aD HO 3 Eley ay eCxty=4) =£(a4 4€%2) i. a ee Ex. 3) From a sack of fruit containing 3 oranges, 2 apples,and 3 banana a random sample of 4 pieces of fruit is selected. If X is the number of oranges and Y is the number of apples in the sample, find a. The joint probability distribution of X and Y b. p(xty£2)a) F(%9 i: ac*am)@c («by ge aL) eat b) PCxty £2) |= $(o,0)4401,094£(2,0)+ $(D1) +8 (1,194 (0,2) t : nee cabeae i > Ota tay Bt Ze tH tt re DOOD pa Oeé Seiek Potadby of ontinowss Rando Naw The function f (x, y) is a joint probability density of the continuous random variables X and Y if t) 4,9) = 0 toe all xy 2) [2 (7 toss dedy oF 7) Pow) = fF Fong) de dy Ex. 4) A candy company distributes boxes of chocolates with a mixture of cream, toffees, and nuts coated in both light and dark chocolate. For a randomly selected box, let X and Y, respectively, be the proportions of the light and dark chocolates that are creams and suppose that the joint density function is given by ipa) pee, osx£l,04y 41 Ly 0, elewhere 9) Veriey uondition 2 b) Fing Ploexea 4 cyda)Sag) eS \, @e dy 27) 2 for st), al pelkolne a b) porta tyes e JP tees) das Fey ° Sy 4 acne _ z (pe i. ta 5 (2444) aedy eee) = ( 2 (a Sod we . = co il Yi 3 *?) Jeu 2] Tees] + + Q th 5 3, f Sey rea Cats — he Bay Te Ip + ee + 0: OBIa5 | a1” loo] =P: OBS arginal pis dhyfion oF Convers Random ace ft f(xy) dy woBil) Mad (4) ard ly) ror He joint dency prction oF example gwen” She pint density runchon- hens lozie 41 | of ys 9 elsewhere = (0 B39 ptuad ay -9 a SB By b way? (E+ 8) ~ WE a Gy | »” 5 Jo = Oy Oe 2, Oo = 434) Ha Sg eg FY Bea) tind gfx) + hy) fy) ie x(it3y2), nae ee, 044 4) . elcewhere Btx)=(! (cee hy hay ( lay? (Fax) “9 ie +; + "3 (9+ Je ii cial, h L bel Fr neg v F ar aHPObiem| Gt | ol 4 qo pei 54/2 right y* tert a)k= ce bk OZ ty?) day ® Va rf Pk OCHA a re = + om)? iC ate wk 5) (took + ska) Fagen + ora an > 4p, 4 aoky® > yet ee >(19P-099 ke a (18000 + 1Go00k) =| k= TUB Goan? of TOS xT” b) P (26S £10, 40 Sy 4x0) 4 \ k (x48") de ¢ qo = K(f spo)" : cae doy?) = (4090 + 30y"))] rete3 40 ae mae =k [CPm +a) = (m0) + wy? J) «kL awee] = 7-W5,0612 10" ( 180002) +0385 —H a.) 7.653x10"-7 b.) 0.25Condhena Pro babs lity Let y andy be fhe tun random variable , discrede of cofinvous 0 |The! cenditienall ctichribution of the Vanden variable Y given That) X7%. iC giver by conelttina, $5 |x) = $00) t gle) += %=* condition 0) Th cenditienal olictrbution e the random variable X, guen Hut Y=4 ic given by T eaditinn | tC] ep candiion nly) — Discrete Cxample Two refills for a ballpen are selected at random from a box that contains 3 blue refills, 2 red refills and 3 green refills . If x is the number of blue refills, and y is the number of red refills selected, find the, conditional distribution of x, given that y=1 and use it to determine P (X=0 | Y=1) x ha) he 3 Bf) ° | 9 te (x )= fy) Y he iz Pan | he f ls Thea). uy |? ah yl ‘he hy Gy) = Fat) Flt |’. [Phe |! hLO fey) = Ger) (RU)GE2T9) | ORY #G+[9)> £0. Ack afr enreper to i fable, yao sy Lfor} J 9 | Oxo La). 2. 4 Gv ethiny bat | @yst = EC | aoae oh ah a wo tery) = ky ” ContimyosS Example The joint density for the random variable (X, Y), where x is the unit temperature change and Y is the proportion of spectrum shift that a certain atomic particle produces is given by $ou9) > ie v4 x £yAl R elsewhere. Find the marginal densities g(x), h(y) and the conditional density f(y|x) b.) Find the probability that the spectrum shifts more than half of the total observations given the temperature was increased to 0.25 unit a) aac Bw) ay = f y ; Oey oxy" dy = ‘oa = toa(i-) 2 er Oph bla) “| £beyay > ft poxy*dy = arty = fH) f(g |x) 7 flaw). OR = ag ( | omy a6(-") wy gee neces a acta te m5” By * difference [oF Fieal and invhal amount “my mmey has) incveaect tay 35HPS ays fves) | flab hy 1 3! 8 {et ry | D) Given the joint denct il ion fen vxe2, oLyeI ee ekeuhert p(yaerch fyb) (x Lita? (#4942) ees) a ae ae ete lle 9th) + (FB ft BeSaat joith gli punctin ¢ (ar He wine Get [Gtgs ohh t ) re Cl Note |) op chee (Chnn |nany ae Yeh w| el ele Detgmine amd Wy, and te eee + aut leony)= CK Cx)HC4) Cn OXY) To sohe| For te prokability * | wet ulate all ie flu) | fatal lof | doise ie ae fait op | quired ppokatilily 2fQxy) - 1) pans TOY Macgnal Vishitehion imaginal dichibution © up alx and fai) a Ca Jotab ofl x] kdy) | Kel) Senay To Sok Pablo ous clon Varia o « Eo) “ff fobs) Andy . Raa dy | = | £ Fle) « F piceawice ike dencity_ pation —fad pt abe [jdt qin | pact iat to clay) op the given’ enc ch’) rn ee ae eles ea 2 | z tg ig tL babii s | | | aa | limite [ are give nthe probability and_inkeg cate ven ’ Summary For Marginal Distribution T ebil| on Varia Formulac { |__| — 4 gbd.= ("| g6e9) ay # inkgorte ithe given dencit) punction [ti | Lith rcpect 40 whet i blog acked WO) > J, Boqw) de CgCx) © | bly) —— separate itkeg ation) | te a rt Proloalyj ley emda » $ (ely) 7 Flug NAe|? the denprtinate® ic| kaced on vlad the phencec () * tgiven | baat, Yeuhithad! " wequivec | The denen nator ic flo|¥) = $y (the conten, in| He, pblem gle We FoF asnditicnal density puiction + | | "iE kein oO discrete Fated wet pobability in galery data © cubstinte [dota wf ete x59 | ant 904), Roy), looted oa the appiied | promol oki = GW WG), 6) He commotion —ap he —epw-o | ulun—of; the! gives, X0Fytalve| Cae FH He aba Apply values oF given poembtlety te ete fonctionsShve for He conditienal ait quction gC) ond h(a) o Gol FY ether gx)| or] Rly) [pict ley) iaeqenting “HA piecemice om ae the ued fo the applied permul™ fOny) iC the given deacity PAO) citi | fp necedea Ce fo tha pal y | | ‘and geet) re variable © Beply) HH given vale clits” integerte the cmd final dencity lpunctionHyzerscomciic Dishtbutiony case) Catpling, 6 done wrthouk repacemnest = dravitg, rings conden fxl) A box contains 5 red, 3 white and 2 blue marbles. A sample of six marbles are drawn at random. Find the probability that: a. 3 are red, 2 are white and 1 is blue b. 2 of each color appears SEE] _9.(0R, 40,10) = SPILL — paps ce BI 8) Car aa) = (56 )eres) (eet) sag Be. ar oltinemigg? | Distrib x) A foreign student club lists as its members 2 Canadians, 3 Japanese, 5 Italians and 2 Germans. If a committee of 4 is selected at random, find the probability that: a. All nationalities are represented b. All nationalities except Italian are represented A) P(t rgeted Je Ge CAIEA HE) ata oc Heb) pCeapt Habian) + ot oy bs (2622 Gct) | (area) (201) qa afl te = IZog 12.04 a Eye eal ya@er) _ es, Ss A gop of 1 with A cefectert , in cage b Maio’ ove not reprecenter —seee aphal oF 4) pam | 3 pationaliier; Rano Sampling and findamenta| : “Shigige Distribution Pewlation — otathy, of the cbseniationc with which we ave conconed (prahen data) m Parmmeter — meacurement or quantity that deccribec 4ne population Copulation data ) “pepultion mean, papdctiv carded duction ote." Cample ~ subset oF population (sample data) 8 Gatictice ~ meacremert rT quaattity tract describes a cample (comple gate “cample maou, sample dandonl dniokinn, ote- 1 corded dendency- iw Ye comple - Mean 10 | antngement . A food inspector examined a random sample of 7 cans of a certain brand of tuna to determine the percent of foreign impurities. The following data were recorded: 1.8, 2.1 1.7, 1.6, 0.9, 2.7 and 1.8. Compute the sample mean | Shai OEE THC OME ATEL® 1 arc lat i 7 2a w Lsemedion | qviargewent ic necetca Exarge| The number of foreign ships arriving at an eastcoast port on 7 randomly selected days were 8, 3, 9, 5, 6, 8, and 5. Find the median A jaceme x cpa 9,5,5.0, 8,8,4 (ayaa led at Sir nie tn #12 g¢% plavemert = hel The nicotine contents for a random sample of 6 cigarettes of a certain brand are found to be 2.3, 2.7, 2.5, 2.9, 3.1 and 1.9 milligrams. Find the median 1-4, 2%, O5, 27, 2413-1 Yaw pimement th th | gad | ath, a542°7 | _ ae SY (Bay = tea as Smock) ic thot volue oF the compe Hat occore pct open oe with the, emeteell_pregeehay- ¢ : If the donations of a random sample of residents of fairway forest toward the Virginia lung association are recorded as(Q 10 50197 8610 and 11 dollars, then the mode m= 9 dollars the value occurs with the greatest frequency. xanle' The number of movies attended last month by a random sample of 12 high school students were recorded as follows[2/0 3 (24@ 501 and(4. in this case, there are two modes 2 and 4, since both 2 and 4 occur with the greatest frequency. The distribution is said to be bimodal.