POM Unit II New
POM Unit II New
Semester VII
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UNITII– PLANNING
Topics List
Every enterprise which strives to survive and grow must place heavy emphasis upon planning. A planner
foresees opportunities and devises ways and means to take advantage from them.
Planning bridges the gap from where we are to where we want to go. It is also important to point
out that planning and controlling are inseparable-the Siamese twins of management (See figure
below). Any attempt to control without plans is meaningless, since there is no way for people to
tell whether they are going where they want to go (the result of the task of control) unless they
first know where they want to go (part of the task of planning). Plans thus furnish the standards
of control.
Definitions
Geogre Terry: Planning is the selecting and relating of facts and the making and using of assumptions
regarding the future in the visualization and formulation of proposed activities believed necessary to achieve
desired results.” According to Terry planning is based on certain assumptions which are required to
formulate policies of the business. The purpose of planning is to achieve business objectives.
Hart: “The determination in advance of a line of action by which certain results are to be achieved.”
Planning is the deciding of a course required for reaching organisational goals. The line of action is decided
in advance so that actual execution becomes easy later on.
Purpose of Planning
1. Planning contributes to Objectives: Planning starts with the determination of objectives. We cannot
think of planning in absence of objective. After setting up of the objectives, planning decides the methods,
procedures and steps to be taken for achievement of set objectives. Planners also help and bring changes in
the plan if things are not moving in the direction of objectives.
For example, if an organisation has the objective of manufacturing 1500 washing machines and in one month
only 80 washing machines are manufactured, then changes are made in the plan to achieve the final
objective.
2. Planning is Primary function of management: Planning is the primary or first function to be performed
by every manager. No other function can be executed by the manager without performing planning function
because objectives are set up in planning and other functions depend on the objectives only.
For example, in organizing function, managers assign authority and responsibility to the employees and level
of authority and responsibility depends upon objectives of the company. Similarly, in staffing the employees
are appointed. The number and type of employees again depends on the objectives of the company. So
planning always proceeds and remains at no. 1 as compared to other functions.
3. Pervasive: Planning is required at all levels of the management. It is not a function restricted to top level
managers only but planning is done by managers at every level. Formation of major plan and framing of
overall policies is the task of top-level managers whereas departmental managers form plan for their
respective departments. And lower-level managers make plans to support the overall objectives and to carry
on day-to-day activities.
4. Planning is futuristic/Forward looking: Planning always means looking ahead or planning is a futuristic
function. Planning is never done for the past. All the managers try to make predictions and assumptions for
future and these predictions are made on the basis of past experiences of the manager and with the regular
and intelligent scanning of the general environment.
5. Planning is continuous Planning is a never ending or continuous process because after making plans also
one has to be in touch with the changes in changing environment and in the selection of one best way. So,
after making plans also planners keep making changes in the plans according to the requirement of the
company. For example, if the plan is made during the boom period and during its execution there is
depression period then planners have to make changes according to the conditions prevailing.
6. Planning involves decision making: The planning function is needed only when different alternatives are
available and we have to select most suitable alternative. We cannot imagine planning in absence of choice
because in planning function managers evaluate various alternatives and select the most appropriate. But if
there is one alternative available then there is no requirement of planning.
For example, to import the technology if the licence is only with STC (State Trading Co-operation) then
companies have no choice but to import the technology through STC only. But if there is 4-5 import agencies
included in this task then the planners have to evaluate terms and conditions of all the agencies and select the
most suitable from the company’s point of view.
7. Planning is a mental exercise: It is mental exercise. Planning is a mental process which requires higher
thinking that is why it is kept separate from operational activities by Taylor. In planning assumptions and
predictions regarding future are made by scanning the environment properly. This activity requires higher
level of intelligence. Secondly, in planning various alternatives are evaluated and the most suitable is
selected which again requires higher level of intelligence. So, it is right to call planning an intellectual
process.
2. PLANNING PROCESS
Planning involves a number of steps ranging from determining the objectives to follow-up action as detailed
below.The main steps that are taken in planning process are as follows:
1. Establishing Objectives: Establishing the objectives is the first step in planning. Plans are prepared with a
view to achieve certain goals. Hence, establishing the objectives is an important step in the process of
planning. Plans should reflect the enterprise’s objectives. Objectives should clearly define as to what is to be
achieved by policies, procedures, rules, strategies, budgets and programmes. Plan must make sure that every
activity undertaken contributes to the achievement of objectives.
The objectives fixed must clearly indicate what is to be achieved, where action should take place, who is to
perform it, how it is to be undertaken and when it is to be accomplished. That is, managers should be able to
restate the objectives of the firm in definite and clear terms that will motivate examination and evaluation of
performance against targeted performance in the plan. Objectives should be measurable.
2. Determining Planning Premises : This is the second step in planning. Premises include actual forecast
data, policies and plans of the enterprise. Planning involves looking into the future which necessitates the
enterprise to know, how future conditions will affect its activities. Thus, forecasting is an important step in
planning. There are two types of forecasting namely,
Keeping the general economic conditions in mind, a study of the industry is made. Then the manager
proceeds to make a study of his company’s share of the market. Forecasting will reveal those areas where
control is lacking. Planning will be reliable when the forecast methods are accurate. Hence, the success of the
planning depends very much upon the forecasts.
3. Determining Alternative Courses: Determining alternative courses is the third step in the planning
process. The planner should study all the alternatives, consider the strong and weak points of them and
finally select the most promising ones.
4. Evaluating Alternative Courses : Alternative courses so selected should be evaluated in the light of
premises and goals. Evaluation involves the study of performance of various actions. Various factors such as
profitability, investment requirements, etc., of such alternatives should be weighed against each other. Each
alternative should be closely studied to determine its suitability.
Many other factors such are uncertain future trend, problems faced financially, future uncertainties render the
evaluation process, complex and difficult. Usually, alternative plans are evaluated against factors such as
cost, risks, benefits, organizational facilities, etc. Computer based mathematical plans and techniques can
also be utilized to identify best course of action.
5. Selecting the Best Course: After having evaluated the various alternatives, the most suitable alternative is
selected. With this, the plan can be considered to have been adopted. It is exactly the point at which decisions
are made. Sometimes, in the best interests of the enterprise, several alternative courses can be adopted.
6. Formulating Derivative Plans: Planning is not complete as soon as the best course is selected. The main
plan should be supported by a number of derivative plans. Within the framework of a basic plan, derivative
plans are formulated in each functional area. Segregation of master plan into departmental, sectional and
individual plans, helps to understand the real nature of future uncertainties. To make the planning process
more effective, it should also provide for a feedback mechanism. These plans are meant for the
implementation of the main plan.
7. Implementation of Plans
Implementation of plans is the final step in the process of planning. This involves putting the plans into
action so as to achieve the business objectives Implementation of plans requires establishment of policies,
procedures, standards, budgets, etc.
3. TYPES OF PLANNING
The resources of the organisation (micro aspect) are matched to the opportunities and threats in the external
environment (macro aspect). Corporate planning is normally at the top-level management. Hussey defined
corporate planning as, “Corporate planning includes the setting of objectives, organising the work, people
and systems to enable those objectives to be attained, motivating through the planning process and through
the plans, measuring performance and so controlling progress of the plan and developing people through
better decision making, clearer objectives, more involvement and awareness of progress.”
Hussey has given a broad definition of corporate planning. It covers various functions of management
besides defining planning. Corporate planning is related to total planning activity and not to various
managerial functions.
Corporate planning is original and is the starting point of planning process. Corporate planning is not
synonymous to long term planning even though it is related to future activities of the organisation. Long term
planning is not possible without the backing of short-term plans. So corporate planning should not be tied to
a specific period. Normally, corporate planning is divided into strategic planning or long-range planning and
operational, tactical or short range planning.
II Strategic Planning
Strategic planning is the process of planning as to how to achieve organisational objectives with the available
resources and is undertaken by the central management of the business. It is an exercise by the top
management to fix the objectives of the organisation and then plan to achieve them. An assessment of
available resources is made at the top and then things are planned for a time period of upto 10 years. It
basically deals with the total assessment of the organisation, strengths, capabilities and weaknesses and an
objective evaluation of environment is made for future pursuits.
(iii) It provides cohesiveness in company’s policies and activities over a long period.
(iv) The more the functions of an organisation affected by plans the more the strategic these are.
(v) It is concerned both with the formulation of goals and the selection of the means by which they are to be
attained.
(vi) Since it determines basic policies and programmes, it is a top management activity.
(ix) It sets the direction of organisation’s activities for the attainment of goals.
2. Proper use of Resources: The natural resources are becoming scarce and human resources are changing
every day. Strategic planning is needed for procuring these resources and allocating them properly. The
traditional work force is giving way to more educated workers. The computers have taken over the routine
jobs. The proper use of various resources requires a proper planning on the part of top management.
3. Ensuring Success: An explosion in information technology has increased the knowledge and better
methods of planning. Since strategic planning helps in achieving success, there is a need to undertake it in
most of the companies.
These plans are to support strategic plans whenever some difficulty is faced in its implementation. Any
changes in internal organisation or external environment have to be met through tactical plans. For example,
there is a sudden change in prices of products, difficulty in procuring raw materials, unexpected moves by
competitors, tactical plans will help in meeting such unforeseen situations.
The success of tactical plans depends upon the speed and flexibility with which management acts to meet
sudden situations. Operational planning is mainly concerned with the efficient use of resources already
allocated and with the development of a control mechanism to ensure efficient implementation of the action
so that business objectives are achieved.
On the basis of time period
Long term planning
o Time frame beyond five years. Long term Plans: >5yrs
o It specifies what the organization wants to become in long run.
o It involves great deal of uncertainty.
o Higher management levels focus on longer time horizons.
o Cover a longer time
o May include a variety of different types of training
Some examples Long term Plans:
An annual plan, including Fast Start and basic training
Makeup training sessions
Den chief training
Regular monthly roundtables
Supplemental training
Personal coaching
Self-study
We should not overlook the importance of long-range plans in providing a total leadership
growth and development program for leaders.
Objectives: Objectives were defined earlier as the important ends toward which organizational
and individual activities are directed. Since writers and practitioners make no clear distinction
between the terms goal and objectives, they are used interchangeably in this book. Within the
context of the discussion, it will become dear whether the objectives are long term or short term,
broad or specific. The emphasis is on verifiable objectives, which means at the end of the period
it should be possible to determine whether or not the objective has been achieved. The goal of
every manager is to create a surplus or profit. Clear and verifiable objectives facilitate
measurement of the surplus as well as the effectiveness and efficiency of managerial actions.
Hierarchy of objectives
Objectives form a hierarchy, ranging from the broad aim to specific individual objectives. The
zenith of the hierarchy is the purpose or mission, which has two dimensions.
1. Social purpose: Contributing to the welfare of people by providing goods and services at a
reasonable price.
2. Mission or purpose of the business: To furnish convenient, low-cost transportation for the
average person. The stated mission might be to produce, market, and service automobiles. The
distinction between purpose and mission is a fine one, and therefore many writers and
practitioners do not differentiate between the two terms. At any rate, these aims are in turn
translated into general objectives and strategies, such as designing, producing, and marketing
reliable, low-cost, fuel-efficient automobiles.
3. Specific objectives: Objectives in the key result areas. These are the areas in which
performance is essential for the success of the enterprise. Although
there is no complete agreement on what the key result areas of a
business should be-and they may differ between enterprises.
Objectives state end results, and overall objectives need to be supported by sub objectives. Thus,
objectives form a hierarchy as well as a network. Moreover, organizations and managers have
multiple goals that are sometimes incompatible and may lead to conflicts within the organization,
within the group, and even within individuals. A manager may have to choose between short- term
and long-term performance, and personal interests may have to be subordinated to organizational
objectives.
Verifiable objective
To achieve a return on investment of 12% at the end of the current fiscal year
To issue a two-page monthly newsletter beginning July 1, 2005, involving not more than 40
working hours of preparation time (after the first issue)
To increase production output by 5% by December 31 without additional costs while
maintaining the current quality level
To design and conduct a 40-hour in-house program on the "fundamentals of
management," to be completed by October 1, involving not more than 200
working hours of the management development staff and with at least 90% of
the 100 managers passing the exam (specified)
To install a computerized control system in the production department by
December 31, 2005, requiring not more than 500 working hours of systems
analysis and operating with not more than 10% downtime during the first three
months or 2% thereafter.
Advantages of Objectives
Clear definition of objectives encourages unified planning.
Objectives provide motivation to people in the organization.
When the work is goal-oriented, unproductive tasks can be avoided.
Objectives provide standards which aid in the control of human efforts in an organization.
Objectives serve to identify the organization and to link it to the groups
upon which itsexistence depends.
Objectives act as a sound basis for developing administrative controls.
Objectives contribute to the management process: they influence the
purpose of the organization, policies, personnel, leadership as well as
managerial control.
Objectives are required to be set in every area which directly and vitally effects
the survival and prosperity of the business. In the setting of objectives, the
following points should be borne in mind.
• Objectives are required to be set by management in every area which directly
and vitally affects the survival and prosperity of the business.
• The objectives to be set in various areas have to be identified.
• While setting the objectives, the past performance must be reviewed, since
past performance indicates what the organization will be able to accomplish
in future.
• The objectives should be set in realistic terms i.e., the objectives to
be set should bereasonable and capable of attainment.
• Objectives must be consistent with one and other.
• Objectives must be set in clear-cut terms.
5.POLICIES
Policies acting as principles provide rules of action for achieving organization’s specific
objectives. The coordinating links in the organization are provided by policies. They govern
and guide the actions of an organization’s overall performance and its objectives in the
various areas of operation-production, finance, marketing and personnel.
Features of a Policy
The above discussion reveals the following features of a policy:
(i) A policy is a standing plan which provides answers to recurring problems of a similar
future course of action. A policy provides and explains what a member should do rather than
what he is doing.
(ii) A policy limits an area within which a decision is to be taken for the achievement of
organizational goals. It avoids repeated analysis of situations and allow delegation of powers
and still retaining control over actions.
(iii) Policies are models of thought and principles underlying the activities of an organization.
They guide the behaviour and decisions of the executive.
(iv) Policies are framed by all managers in the organization. There is a need for giving
guidelines for future course of action at every level of management. However, the importance
of policy differs according to the level of management. At higher level of management
important policies are decided while at lower level some less important or minor policies are
required.
Purpose of Policies:
Policies are regarded as important for realizing the objectives of the organization. They also
ensure co-ordination of efforts and activities in the enterprise.
2. Since policies chalk out a framework for each and every person, it ensures proper
delegation of authority also. A manager knows the extent of authority required by a
subordinate to undertake the work allotted to him. Policies serve the purpose of delegating
adequate authority downwards.
3. Policies allow the scope for interpretation. The main aspects are given in a policy but the
actual mode of implementation is decided by the concerned person.
4. Policies are helpful for future planning also. The impact and influence of policies help in
thinking about the future.
5. Policies also ensure consistency of action. The guidelines are similar for everybody and
actions must conform to the broad outlines.
1. Organizational Goals:
The policies are formed to achieve organizational goals. The goals are the targets which are
to be achieved and policies devise ways of reaching them. Policies should assist by basing
them on relevant facts and figures and not on mere guess work.
2. Proper Participation:
Policies should be framed by the participation of persons at various levels of management. If
policies are framed at top level without knowing the views of those for whom these are meant
then there is likelihood that policies may not achieve the desired results. To ensure successful
implementation of policies, there is a need for joint participation at the time of formulating
them.
4. Consistency:
Various policies of an enterprise should conform to each other. There should be no
inconsistency among various policies. If there is inconsistency among policies then these will
not be implemented. It must be ensured that policies are related to enterprise objectives and
do not give conflicting guidelines.
5. Proper Communication:
The policies should be properly communicated to each level of management. If the policies
are not properly known by those who are to implement them then there will be no use of such
policies. Sometimes policies may not be well understood, there may be some doubt in the
minds of persons, it will be the duty of management to clarify them and provide proper
clarification.
6. In Writing:
The policies should always be in writing. This will ensure their proper and correct
implementation. If the policies are not in writing then a dispute may arise about their contents
and purpose. The language of policies should also be simple so that it is well understood by
concerned persons.
3. Evaluating Alternatives:
All the alternatives are evolved in the light of organizational objectives. It should be analysed
as to what contribution these alternatives will make in helping the organization for achieving
its objectives. The factors like cost, benefits, resource requirement of each alternative should
be properly assessed. The effect of various alternatives on the environment of the
organization should also be analyzed.
4. Selection of a Policy:
After proper evaluation, most appropriate alternative is selected. The selection of a policy is a
long-term commitment. In case the alternatives do not look satisfactory then efforts should be
made to develop other alternatives.
6. Implementing Policy:
If the policy is finally alright it should be implemented. The policy should be explained to
those who are to implement it. There should be a proper discussion about the implications
and impact of various clauses or provisions of the policy. Proper communication of the
purpose and objective of the policy will help it in its implementation.
6.PLANNING PREMISES
(ii) External premises are based on factors that prevail outside the enterprise:
In other words, external premises are those assumptions that centre round the various types of
marketing, viz. the product market, materials market, the capital market, the labour market
and so on.
The important external factors which act as important determinants of all such markets are—
(i) the political stability; (ii) sociological factors; (iii) business and economic environment ;
(iv) cultural factors ; (v) population growth ; (vi) government policies and regulations ; (vii)
trade cycles ; and (viii) technological changes and the like.
Tangible planning premises are those which can be measured quantitatively in one way or the
other, whereas Intangible planning premises defy quantitative measurements because of their
qualitative character.
Constant factors are ignored in planning because they behave in the similar way/fashion,
irrespective of the course of action adopted. Variable factors on the other hand, have a
significant bearing on the sources of planning. Accordingly planning premises is expected to
have a wide coverage so as to encompass all the variable factors.
Generally internal premises are associated with constant factors which are definite, known
and well understood. For instance, the capacity of men and machines and the amount of
capital investment are completely controllable factors and they fall within the powers of
management.
We also come across many other factors which lie beyond the controlling powers of
management. The managerial personnel can only look into the future to assess their variations
in the years to come.
In other words, forecasting gives the managers an idea or knowledge of their variations. But
no forecasting is required in the case of constant factors, even though they are included on the
list of planning premises. That is why it is claimed that the scope of premising is larger than
the scope of forecasting.
4. From the Standpoint of the Possibility of Exercising Control over the Planning
Premises, they may be classified into three types, viz:
(i) Fully controllable premises
(i) Fully controllable premises: refer to the assumptions about those factors pertaining to the
enterprise like the products; rules etc. which the company management is expected to follow
over the future period and the ways in which these are likely to affect the plans of the
enterprise. These factors are known as controllable premises, because these are subject to the
relations or factors which must be considered partially as being given and partially as being
subjected to decision-making on the part of the management. The plans for any business
enterprise will naturally have to be based on proper assumptions with regard to these factors.
(iii) Absolutely non-controllable premises: refer to the assumptions about the economy, the
political situations, strikes, wars, natural calamities, new discoveries and inventions,
These cannot be influenced and controlled through management policy and decisions.
Although a management cannot do anything about these factors, it must take them into
account while planning for expansion of the existing capacity. It should not forget the fact
that the efficacy of the present command policy is becoming increasingly restricted and
should think of appropriate alternative changes promptly. If such factors are not considered,
the plans will remain as mere wishes.
7. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
2. Entrepreneurial Approach:
Under this approach, every attempt is made to exploit the available opportunities in the best
interest of the company. The strategist anticipates opportunities and based on this assumption,
he takes strategic decisions after carefully diagnosing them to his best capacity. With such a
necessary precaution; he will select the course of action best suited to get maximum benefits.
He, being responsible for good or bad results, should analyse the probable consequences of
the decisions taken. This approach is by nature of self-interest and self-oriented and, hence, is
commonly adopted by individual entrepreneurs and small business houses. It is seldom
practiced in the corporate sector.
3. Incremental Approach:
Also known as muddling through Approach. The management under this types of approach is
least interested to have strategies one after the other as a regular process but prefers to have
one strategy or an alternative only when it is compelled by unavoidable circumstances. The
main aim of the management is to settle the issues of negotiation with different groups
concerned in the organisation.
Even when alternatives are suggested, the management will see that they are simple. Easily
understandable and important from the point of view of employees so that changes made will
prove non- disruptive. The whole emphasis under this approach is laid on negotiated
settlement and hence whatever strategic decisions seldom taken are for remedial nature.
This type of approach is largely adopted by public companies which are generally supposed
to work under social and political pressure and deal with the human behaviour that goes on
changing with the passage of time.
4. Initiative-Anticipatory Approach:
This approach is largely built up on forecasting the future by the promoter or chief executive,
who accordingly makes the strategic decisions. The success of this approach depends upon
the promoter’s intuition, experience, judgment and methods absorbed by him to deal with a
variety of strategic problems.
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5. Adoptive Approach:
Under this approach, strategic decisions are taken on the basis of how a change in the
environment is going to have impact at a given time. Hence, no decision can be for a
considerably long time as environment under which the company operates is likely to change.
So, in order to keep pace with the changing environment, the strategy decisions must be
reviewed with reference to the current positions of the company, its objectives and
effectiveness of the existing strategy. When the management finds that the situation is
unstable, risky and the future is gloomy, it may adopt contingency planning instead of
adopting long-term strategies, which may not fit in the changing situations.
So, in an uncertain environment, the whole emphasis is on adoptive approach to face the
changes effectively. Taking the nature into consideration it may also be called as integrated
approach, varying from situation to situation. In this way, under the adoptive approach, there
will be different approaches to strategic decision making.
i. Executive summary – This is an overall bird’s eye view of the marketing plan. It tells the
focus of the plan and is generally targeted to the top management.
ii. Situation analysis – This component presents data on sales, costs, profits, the market,
competition and the macro environment.
iii. Opportunity analysis – Here the marketer identifies the major opportunities/threats and
strengths/weaknesses.
iv. Objectives – The marketer must decide on the plan’s financial and marketing objectives.
v. Marketing strategy – The marketer now outlines the broad marketing strategy.
vi. Action programmes – The marketing plan must specify the broad marketing programmes
for achieving the business objectives.
1. Use:
Once a strategic marketing plan is in place, the company can use the plan as a guide in
conducting its daily business as well as making short-term and long-term decisions.
Implementation of the strategic marketing plan typically leads companies to the tactical
marketing portion of conducting business.
The strategic marketing plan transitions into the company’s plan for product and service
development; the communication plan on how the company intends on promoting the
business offerings; developing the sales plan; and finally putting together the customer
service plan on how the company intends on interacting with current and potential customers.
2. Benefits:
The primary benefit of a strategic marketing plan is that it puts a written guide in place for a
business to follow to reach its goals and objectives. The second major advantage of strategic
marketing planning is that is allows the business to create and utilize consistent messaging
internally and externally.
Consistent messaging in marketing creates efficient companies because employees and
customers understand what the company offers and how the company offers it. They work
toward a common goal. Efficient companies typically see an increase in revenues and market
share, while it sees a decrease in expenses. Ultimately, it all leads to an increase in company
profitability.
3. Time Frame:
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Strategic marketing planning is not a one-time action, but rather an ongoing process.
Typically, a company creates a strategic marketing plan that covers short-term (one year) and
long-term (two year, three year and five year plans) periods. When a strategic marketing plan
is put in place, the company uses it as a guide for six months to one year at a time.
The company then evaluates the strategic plan by measuring the results of the marketing
programs the plan put in place. After evaluating the strategic marketing plan on a six- month
Similarly, it has been observed that if anything is invented in some part of the world, this is
adopted in other countries after a gap of a certain time. Thus, based on analogy, a general
forecast can be made about the nature of events in the economic system of the country. It is
often suggested that social analogies have helped in indicating the trends of changes in the
norms of business behaviour in terms of life.
Likewise, changes in the norms of business behaviour in terms of attitude of the workers
against inequality, find similarities in various countries at various stages of the history of
industrial growth. Thus, this method gives a broad indication about the future events of
general nature.
2. Survey Method:
Surveys can be conducted to gather information on the intentions of the concerned people.
For example, information may be collected through surveys about the probable expenditure
of consumers on various items. Both quantitative and qualitative information may be
collected by this method.
On the basis of such surveys, demand for various products can be projected. Survey method
is suitable for forecasting demand—both of existing and new products. To limit the cost and
time, the survey may be restricted to a sample from the prospective consumers.
If opinion polls give widely divergent views, the experts may be called for discussion and
explanation of why they are holding a particular view. They may be asked to comment on the
views of the others, to revise their views in the context of the opposite views, and consensus
may emerge. Then, it becomes the estimate of future events.
4. Business Barometers:
A barometer is used to measure the atmospheric pressure. In the same way, index numbers
are used to measure the state of an economy between two or more periods. These index
numbers are the device to study the trends, seasonal fluctuations, cyclical movements, and
irregular fluctuations.
These index numbers, when used in combination with one another, provide indications as to
the direction in which the economy is proceeding. Thus, with the business activity index
numbers, it becomes easy to forecast the future course of action.
However, it should be kept in mind that business barometers have their own limitations and
they are not sure road to success. All types of business do not follow the general trend but
different index numbers have to be prepared for different activities, etc.
A trend can be known over the period of time which may be true for the future also.
However, time series analysis should be used as a basis for forecasting when data are
available for a long period of time and tendencies disclosed by the trend and seasonal factors
are fairly clear and stable.
Regression analysis helps in isolating the effects of such factors to a great extent. For
example, if we know that there is a positive relationship between advertising expenditure and
volume of sales or between sales and profit, it is possible to have estimate of the sales on the
basis of advertising, or of the profit on the basis of projected sales, provided other things
remain the same.
7. Input-Output Analysis:
According to this method, a forecast of output is based on given input if relationship between
input and output is known. Similarly, input requirement can be forecast on the basis of final
output with a given input-output relationship. The basis of this technique is that the various
sectors of economy are interrelated and such inter-relationships are well-established.
For example, coal requirement of the country can be predicted on the basis of its usage rate in
various sectors like industry, transport, household, etc. and how the various sectors behave in
future. This technique yields sector-wise forecasts and is extensively used in forecasting
business events as the data required for its application are easily obtained.
It is told that a disease is half cured if it is correctly diagnosed. Similarly, if the problem is
correctly understood, its solution will be easier.For example, when a company is faced with
declining profits, it shows the symptom and not the disease.
The managers may decide to solve the problem through intensive sales effort. But if the real
problem lies elsewhere which may need change or product lines, or reduction of price and
improvement of quality, the intensified sales effort will not bring the desired result.
So, all possible facts and data relating to the situation must be gathered to find out the
revealing circumstances that may help the decision-maker to gain an insight into the problem.
The whole approach of analysis of the problem should be based around the limiting or critical
factors within minimum possible time and efforts.
That particular way is to be accepted. Therefore, the decision-maker must try to find out the
various alternatives available in order to get the most satisfactory result of a decision.
However, it should be borne in mind that it may not be possible to consider all alternatives,
because information about all alternatives may not be available, or some of the alternatives
cannot be considered for selection due to the obvious limitation of the decision-maker. While
determining alternatives, the concept of limiting factor should be applied.
A limiting factor is one that stand in the way of accomplishing a desired objective. If these
factors are identified, the managers will confine their search for alternatives to those which
will overcome the limiting factors. For instance, if an enterprise has limitation in raising
sizable finances, it cannot consider the projects involving high investment.
Tangible factors are those which can be quantified because they are quite obvious like the
cost per unit, investment required, output to be received, etc. Such factors can be measured
easily. As against these, intangible factors are mostly qualitative and cannot be measured in
terms of quantity.
For example, in a plant location, various non-economic factors like psychological problem
arising out of displacement of persons from the plant site, ecological balance, etc. have to be
considered which cannot be quantified
A manager with sound knowledge, long experience and considerable ability may choose the
best course of action easily. When there is any confusion, some criteria may be useful for
picking up the best solution.
Decisions are not always based on facts, some guesswork may be necessary for this purpose.
Moreover, there is the human limitation associated with each decision-making process. In
order to provide safeguards against incorrect, bad and inappropriate decisions, it is desirable
to introduce a system of follow-up in the light of feedback received from the results.
This provides the scope of rectifying the wrong decisions and modifying similar future
decisions to tune them up with environmental changes. It is clear from the above discussion
that decision-making is not a simple affair. Its formulation and effectiveness depend upon a
number of factors stated above.