Notes Macro
Notes Macro
Contents
1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 3
2. Solow Model ....................................................................................................................................... 4
2.1 Steady state................................................................................................................................... 5
2.2 Impact of higher s on output per worker, CD function:................................................................ 8
2.3 Speed of convergence: ................................................................................................................ 10
3. Golden Rule of steady state .............................................................................................................. 11
3.1 Taylor approximation .................................................................................................................. 12
3.2 Example: CD production function ............................................................................................... 13
4. Ramsey model ............................................................................................................................... 14
4.1 Technology .................................................................................................................................. 14
4.2 Firms............................................................................................................................................ 14
4.3 Factor prices ................................................................................................................................ 14
4.4 Households’ budget constraint ................................................................................................... 15
4.5 Utility function ............................................................................................................................ 15
4.6 Lifetime household’s utility......................................................................................................... 16
4.6.1 Household’s maximization problem .................................................................................... 17
4.6.2 Solving maximization problem with a Hamiltonian ............................................................. 17
4.7 The Euler equation, consumption max ....................................................................................... 17
4.8 Dynamics ..................................................................................................................................... 18
4.8.1 Dynamics of consumption given a CD production function ................................................ 18
4.8.2 Dynamics of capital given a CD function .............................................................................. 19
4.8.3 Modified golden rule steady state ....................................................................................... 20
4.9 The effect of a fall in the discount rate ....................................................................................... 21
5. Diamond model................................................................................................................................. 21
5.1 Firms’ assumptions ..................................................................................................................... 22
5.2 Households’ assumptions ........................................................................................................... 22
5.2.1 Household maximization problem ....................................................................................... 23
5.2.2 Solving the household’s problem......................................................................................... 23
5.2.3 The Euler Equation and the savings rate ............................................................................. 23
5.2.4 The savings rate ................................................................................................................... 24
5.3 The dynamics of Capital .............................................................................................................. 25
5.3.1 The evolution of capital with Cobb-Douglas production and log utility .............................. 25
5.4 The balanced growth path .......................................................................................................... 26
5.5 The possibility of dynamic inefficiency ....................................................................................... 27
5.5.1 Dynamic inefficiency intuition ............................................................................................. 28
6. Endogenous Growth ......................................................................................................................... 28
6.1 The research and development sector ....................................................................................... 29
6.2 Goods production ....................................................................................................................... 29
6.3 Knowledge production ................................................................................................................ 29
6.4 Solow growth model with endogenous K and A ......................................................................... 30
6.5 The relationship for the growth rate .......................................................................................... 30
6.5.1 𝜽 < 𝟏: Diminishing returns, as A increases ......................................................................... 31
6.5.2 𝜽 < 𝟏: Impact of a higher 𝒂𝑳 .............................................................................................. 32
6.5.3 𝜽 > 𝟏: Increasing returns as A increases............................................................................. 33
6.5.5 𝜃 = 1: Constant returns as A increases ............................................................................... 34
6.6 The General Case, that is including capital ................................................................................. 34
6.7 The general case – growth rate of capital................................................................................... 35
6.8 The General Case, growth rate of K ............................................................................................ 35
6.9 The General Case, Dynamics of A ............................................................................................... 36
6.10 The General Case, 𝛽 + 𝜃 < 1 ................................................................................................... 38
6.11 The General, 𝛽 + 𝜃 = 1, 𝑛 = 0................................................................................................. 41
6.12 The nature of Knowledge and the determinants of the allocation of resources to RD............ 42
6.13 Learning by Doing ..................................................................................................................... 42
6.13.1 Learning by doing, example ............................................................................................... 43
6.14 The relationship for the growth rate ........................................................................................ 46
6.13.1 ∅ < 𝟏: Diminishing returns, as K increases ....................................................................... 46
6.13.2 ∅ > 𝟏: Increasing returns, as K increases .......................................................................... 47
6.13.3 ∅ = 𝟏: Constant returns, as K increases ............................................................................ 48
7. Cross-Country Income Differences .................................................................................................. 49
7.1 The Solow Model with Human Capital ....................................................................................... 50
7.1.1 Dynamics of k ....................................................................................................................... 51
7.1.2 What we observe of the dynamics of k(t) ............................................................................ 52
7.2 Decomposing output .................................................................................................................. 53
7.3 What is A? ................................................................................................................................... 54
8. Differences between the chapters.................................................................................................... 56
9. Unemployment ................................................................................................................................. 57
9.1 Search and matching models, introduction: ............................................................................... 57
9.2 The matching function ................................................................................................................ 58
9.3 Equilibrium conditions ................................................................................................................ 59
9.2 Wage determination ................................................................................................................... 59
9.3 Nash bargaining .......................................................................................................................... 60
9.3.1 Equilibrium conditions ......................................................................................................... 60
9.3.2 Steady state equilibrium ...................................................................................................... 61
9.4 Firm’s vacancy filling rate............................................................................................................ 64
9.4.1 Equilibrium employment level ............................................................................................. 66
9.4.2 Equilibrium employment and job finding rate ..................................................................... 66
9.3 Comparative statics, output increases........................................................................................ 68
Review session about the exam............................................................................................................ 70
1. Introduction
In class exercise
Find 𝑓(𝑘) when 𝛼 = 0,5 and draw the curve between 𝑘 = 0 and 𝑘 = 10.
k (x) 0 1 4 9
y 0 1 2 3
𝑌 = 𝑘𝛼
Because
𝛼 = 0,5
Cobb Douglas
3.5
3
2.5
2
y
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
k
𝑲(𝒕)
Development in capital per unit of effective labor 𝒌(𝒕) = 𝑨(𝒕)𝑳(𝒕)
k: increase over time in capital measured in efficiency of labor (if this increase=0, then we’re in a
steady state). In discrete time 𝑘𝑡+1 = 𝑘𝑡 , not the case here because of continuous time.
𝐾̇
Step 1: differentiate in respect to time. The dot means it’s in respect to time.
𝐴𝐿
𝐾̇ 𝑘̇ 𝐴𝐿 − 𝐾(𝐴̇𝐿 + 𝐴𝐿̇)
( )=
𝐴𝐿 (𝐴𝐿)2
𝐾̇ 𝐴𝐿 𝐾 𝐴̇𝐿 + 𝐴̇𝐿
= − ∗
(𝐴𝐿)(𝐴𝐿) 𝐴𝐿 𝐴𝐿
𝐾̇ 𝐴̇ 𝐿̇
= −𝑘( + )
𝐴𝐿 𝐴 𝐿
𝑠𝑌 − 𝛿𝐾
= − 𝑘(𝑔 + 𝑛) = 𝑠𝑦 − 𝛿𝑘 − 𝑘(𝑔 + 𝑛)
𝐴𝐿
= 𝒔𝒇(𝒌) − (𝒈 + 𝒏 + 𝜹)𝒌
2. Solow Model
𝛿𝑥(𝑡)
Continuous time is denoted with a dot. This means 𝑥̇ (𝑡) = 𝛿𝑡
.
X-axis:
𝐾(𝑡)
𝑘(𝑡) =
𝐴(𝑡)𝐿(𝑡)
y-axis:
𝛼
𝑦(𝑡) = (𝑘(𝑡))
Key equation:
Breakeven investment
In the steady state, k(t)=0, which means that
𝑠𝑓(𝑘(𝑡)) = (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿)𝑘(𝑡)
→ did in lecture 1
𝑘 ∗ = 𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑦 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 5
𝐴̇(𝑡)
= 𝑔 ⟺ 𝐴(𝑡) = 𝐴(0) ∗ 𝑒 𝑔𝑡
𝐴(𝑡)
𝐿̇(𝑡)
= 𝑛 ⟺ 𝐿(𝑡) = 𝐿(0)𝑒 𝑛𝑡
𝐿(𝑡)
L(t) how much population you have in economy
𝐾(𝑡)
𝑘(𝑡) =
𝐴(𝑡)𝐿(𝑡)
When high population growth (g) → L(t) increases a lot, the whole term of k(t)\dot falls. We draw it
into the diagram to get it two dimensional.
1) 𝑠 ↑→ 𝐼 ↑→ 𝐾 ↑→ 𝑘 ↑
2) 𝛿 ↑→ 𝐾 ↓→ 𝑘 ↓
𝑛 ↑→ 𝐿 ↑→ 𝑘 ↓
𝑔 ↑→ 𝐴 ↑→ 𝑘 ↓
𝑘̇ (𝑡) = 0
𝑠𝑓(𝑘 ∗) = (𝑔 + 𝑛 + 𝛿)𝑘 ∗
𝑠𝑘 ∗0,5−1 = (𝑔 + 𝑛 + 𝛿)
1 (𝑔 + 𝑛 + 𝛿)
0,5
=
𝑘∗ 𝑠
𝑠 2
𝑘 ∗= ( )
(𝑔 + 𝑛 + 𝛿)
𝑘(𝑡) = 0 ⟺
0,2 ∗ √𝑘 ∗ = 0,1 ∗ 𝑘 ∗ ⟺
Solve for k^*
0,2
⟺ = √𝑘 ∗
0,1
⟺ 𝑘∗ = 4
Find y*
𝛼
𝑦 ∗ (𝑡) = (𝑘 ∗ (𝑡)) ⟺
𝑦 ∗ = √4 = 2
Solow growth model
3.5
2.5
2 y(t)
y(t)
1.5 Savings
1 breakeven
steady state
0.5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
k(t)
Savings have to be higher than the break-even investment for us to have a growing economy.
𝑘→∞
Dynamics of model:
′𝑌
= 𝑓 ′ (𝑘)′𝑘𝐴 + 𝑓(𝑘)𝐴̇
𝐿
= 0 + 𝑓(𝑘) ∗ 𝐴̇
The growth rate in A is equal to g (by definition)
= 𝑓(𝑘) ∗ 𝑔 ∗ 𝐴
𝑌
= ∗𝑔∗𝐴
𝐴𝐿
𝑌
= ∗𝑔
𝐿
′𝑌
⟺ 𝐿 =𝑔
𝑌
𝐿
Even when they reach steady state there will positive growth (even though it looks like there is no
growth rate), but if we measure in output per worker we get a growth rate.
𝑘 𝑑𝑦 𝑓′(𝑘) 𝛼𝑘 𝛼−1
= 𝑘= 𝑘=𝛼
𝑦 𝑑𝑘 𝑓(𝑘) 𝑘𝛼
Therefore,
𝑌′
𝐿 = (𝛼 𝑘′ + 𝑔) > 𝑔
𝑌 𝑘
𝐿
Golden rule steady state:
Whether consumption is larger or smaller in the new steady state, depends on whether we are
above or below the Golden Rule steady state.
The golden rule saving rate is the saving rate which maximises consumption in steady state:
In steady state:
- Graphically: Consumption is the difference between the output curve and the saving=actual
investment curve.
- Steady state requires that the saving curve intersects the break-even curve.
The saving rate, which maximises consumption by differentiating consumption with respect to s and
equalise zero:
𝑑𝑐 ∗ 𝜕𝑘 ∗
= (𝑓′(𝑘 ∗𝐺 ) − (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿)) =0
𝑑𝑠 𝜕𝑠
The corresponding golden rule steady state capital level we denote by 𝑘 ∗𝐺
- Graphically: slope of the output curve and break even curve are equal.
- Above 𝑘 ∗𝐺 , the slope of the output curve is lower than the slope of the break-even curve,
𝑓′(𝑘 ∗) < (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿). As the marginal productivity is decreasing, consumption can increase
by reducing k*.
- Below 𝑘 ∗𝐺 , consumption is also below max consumption, here the slope of the output curve
I higher than the slope of break-even curve, 𝑓′(𝑘 ∗) > (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿). As the marginal
productivity is decreasing, consumption can increase by increasing k*.
1 1
𝛼 1−𝛼 𝑠 1−𝛼
= 𝑘 ∗𝐺 = 𝑘 ∗=
𝑛+𝑔+𝛿 𝑛+𝑔+𝛿
This gives us that the golden rule savings rate is:
𝑠𝐺 = 𝛼
How long time does it take the variable k to reach the steady state, k*?
𝜕𝑘′(𝑘) 𝜕𝑘′(𝑘)
𝑘′ ≈ 𝑘′(𝑘 = 𝑘 ∗) + |𝑘=𝑘∗ (𝑘 − 𝑘 ∗) = | (𝑘 − 𝑘 ∗)
𝜕𝑘 𝜕𝑘 𝑘=𝑘∗
Hence, k’ (dot), is equal to the product of the difference between k and k* and the derivative of k
with respect to k at k=k*
𝑆𝐺 = 𝑥
Max consumption is where the distance between the production function and the savings function is
max (blue parenthesis on graph below): I THINK THIS IS WRONG
2.5
2 y(t)
y(t)
1.5 Savings
1 breakeven
steady state
0.5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10
k(t)
Solow model: how long does it take to get half way to steady state? → we take a Taylor
approximation.
𝑐 = (1 − 𝑠)𝑦 = 𝑦 − 𝑠𝑦
Why important? Suppose we want to increase s: for the present generation 𝑠 ↑→ 𝑐 ↓. How long time
does it take before we are better off? → when savings increase 𝑠 ↑→ 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 ↑→
𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 ↑→ 𝑦 ↑→ 𝑐 ↑→ 𝑓𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓𝑓
= 𝑠𝑓(𝑘) − (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝑑)𝑘
When 𝑘 = 𝑘 ∗ then 𝑠𝑓(𝑘 ∗ ) = (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝑑)𝑘 ∗
𝛿𝑘̇ (𝑘)
𝑘̇ = 𝑘̇ (𝑘 = 𝑘 ∗ ) + (𝑘 − 𝑘 ∗ )
𝛿𝑘
How many growth do we have in growth measured in efficiency → idea is to linear the production
function in order to get an idea how long does it take to get from the point we are right now k=0 to a
steady state.
𝛿𝑘̇ (𝑘)
𝑘̇ = 𝑘̇ (𝑘 = 𝑘 ∗ ) + (𝑘 − 𝑘 ∗ )
𝛿𝑘
So 𝑘̇ is positive when k is a bit below 𝑘 ∗ (because of increase in marginal capital, so when a little bit
below in the steady state, then an increase in S is larger than breakeven investment, why kdot
̇
𝛿𝑘 (𝑘)
negative) and above 𝑘 ∗ 𝑘̇ is negative, hence 𝛿𝑘 < 0.
𝛿𝑘̇ (𝑘)
Let 𝜆 = −
𝛿𝑘
𝛿𝑘̇ (𝑘)
𝜆=−
𝛿𝑘
= −(𝑠𝑓 ′ (𝑘) − (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿))
= (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿) − 𝑠𝑓 ′ (𝑘)
Simplify by substituting in for the s → know from the steady state condition: 𝑠𝑓(𝑘) =
(𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿)𝑘
(𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿)𝑘
⟺𝑠=
𝑓(𝑘)
Substitute into expression
𝑛+𝑔+𝛿 ′
𝜆 = (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿) − 𝑘𝑓 (𝑘)
𝑓(𝑘)
𝑘𝑓 ′ (𝑘)
𝜆 = (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿) (1 − )
𝑓(𝑘)
λ = (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿)(1 − 𝛼)
1
λ = (𝑛 + 𝑔 + 𝛿)(1 − 𝛼) = (0,01 + 0,02 + 0,03) (1 − ) = 𝟎, 𝟎𝟒
3
Then we solve for t when:
𝑘(𝑡) − 𝑘 ∗ 1
=
𝐾(0) − 𝑘 ∗ 2
𝑘(𝑡) − 𝑘 ∗
= 𝑒 𝜆𝑡
𝐾(0) − 𝑘 ∗
Set equal to one another:
1
= 𝑒 −𝜆𝑡
2
1
= 𝑒 −0,04∗𝑡
2
1
ln ( ) = −0,04 ∗ 𝑡
2
𝒕 = 𝟏𝟕, 𝟑𝟐
Number of years to get halfway to the steady state is 17,32 years.
• No micro foundation
4. Ramsey model
Look at retake exam 2019
• Micro foundation
• Household max utility
• Firms max profits
• People live forever and they are all identical
• No government
4.1 Technology
𝐴′(𝑡)
1. Technology grows at the rate g: =𝑔
𝐴(𝑡)
2. There is no depreciation of capital, 𝛿 = 0
3. Capital stock is always positive, 𝐾(𝑡) > 0
4. Output can be used for consumption or savings, which are equal to investments, hence:
𝐾′(𝑡) 𝑌(𝑡) 𝜍(𝑡)
𝐻
= 𝐻
− 𝐻
, where 𝜍(𝑡) is total consumption (C(t) is consumption per person).
4.2 Firms
- The production side is like in the Solow model
- Perfect competition
- Knowledge is for free
- We have that firms maximize profits (dropping the time index for convenience)
𝐶(𝑡)1−𝜃
𝑢(𝐶(𝑡)) = ,𝜃 > 0
1−𝜃
1. 𝜃 measures how willing consumers are to substitute consumption between periods
2. Positive and decreasing marginal utility:
𝑢′(𝐶(𝑡)) = 𝐶(𝑡)−𝜃 > 0, 𝑢′′(𝐶(𝑡)) = −𝜃𝐶(𝑡)−𝜃−1 < 0.
3. If 𝜃 = 1 is u(C(t))=lnC(t)
4. If 𝜃 = 0 is the utility function linear and people are indifferent between consuming now or
in another period
5. The degree of CRRA is found as
𝑢′′(𝐶(𝑡)) 𝜃𝐶(𝑡)−𝜃−1
−𝐶(𝑡) = 𝐶(𝑡) =𝜃
𝑢′(𝐶(𝑡)) 𝐶(𝑡)−𝜃
Let us now convert the utility function to one with consumption per unit of effective labour.
𝐶(𝑡)
𝑐(𝑡) = ↔ 𝐴(𝑡)𝑐(𝑡)
𝐴(𝑡)
, where 𝜌 measures by how much each household discounts the future. High 𝜌 implies little value on
the future. Rewrite per effective unit of labor:
∞
𝑐(𝑡)1−𝜃 𝐿(𝑡)
𝑈 = ∫ 𝑒 −𝜌𝑡 𝐴(0)1−𝜃 𝑒 (1−𝜃)𝑔𝑡 𝑑𝑡
1−𝜃 𝐻
0
We can now collect terms, time invariant parts outside the integral:
∞
1−𝜃
𝐿(0) 𝑐(𝑡)1−𝜃
𝑈 = 𝐴(0) ∫ 𝑒 −𝜌𝑡+(1−𝜃)𝑔𝑡+𝑛𝑡 𝑑𝑡
𝐻 1−𝜃
0
∞
𝑐(𝑡)1−𝜃
𝑈 = 𝐵 ∫ 𝑒 −𝛽𝑡 𝑑𝑡
1−𝜃
0
𝐿(0)
, where 𝐵 = 𝐴(0)1−𝜃 𝐻
, and 𝛽 = 𝜌 − (1 − 𝜃)𝑔 − 𝑛 > 0. Positive Beta implies that the utility
value does not explode.
4.6.1 Household’s maximization problem
The household maximizes lifetime utility
∞
𝑐(𝑡)1−𝜃
𝑈 = 𝐵 ∫ 𝑒 −𝛽𝑡 𝑑𝑡
1−𝜃
0
Transversally condition:
lim 𝑘(𝑡)𝜇(𝑡) = 0
𝑛→∞
𝑊𝑒 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑠𝑢𝑏𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑡𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝛽 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑟(𝑡) = 𝑓′(𝑘(𝑡)) 𝑡𝑜 𝑜𝑏𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑢𝑙𝑒𝑟 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
′𝑐(𝑡) 𝑓′(𝑘(𝑡)) − 𝜌 − 𝜃𝑔
=
𝑐(𝑡) 𝜃
Evolution in consumption per worker in effective labor units, is the equation above.
4.8 Dynamics
Evolution in consumption per worker in effective labour units is
′𝑐(𝑡) 𝑓 ′ (𝑘(𝑡)) − 𝜌 − 𝜃𝑔
=
𝑐(𝑡) 𝜃
The third condition for the Hamiltonian was the household budget constraint
𝑓 ′ (𝑘(𝑡)) = 𝛼𝑘(𝑡)𝛼−1
′𝑐(𝑡) 𝛼𝑘 ∗𝛼−1 − 𝜌 − 𝜃𝑔
= =0
𝑐(𝑡) 𝜃
1
𝛼 1−𝛼
𝑘 ∗= ( )
𝜌 + 𝜃𝑔
That is, a vertical line.
′𝑘(𝑡) = 0
𝑐(𝑡) = 𝑘(𝑡)𝛼 − (𝑛 + 𝑔)𝑘(𝑡)
Shape of the curve:
At c=0, k=0
𝜕𝑐
= 𝑓 ′ (𝑘) − (𝑛 + 𝑔)
𝜕𝑘
We denote the value giving
𝜕𝑐
=0
𝜕𝑘
𝑑𝑐 ∗
= 𝛼𝑘(𝑡)𝛼−1 − (𝑛 + 𝑔) = 0
𝑑𝑘
𝛼𝑘𝐺𝑅 𝛼−1 = (𝑛 + 𝑔)
1
𝛼 𝛼
𝑘𝐺𝑅 =( )
(𝑛 + 𝑔)
By 𝑘𝐺𝑅
𝜕𝑐
- For 𝑘 < 𝑘𝐺𝑅 is 𝑓′(𝑘) > (𝑛 + 𝑔) and thus 𝜕𝑘 > 0
𝜕𝑐
- For 𝑘 > 𝑘𝐺𝑅 is 𝑓′(𝑘) < (𝑛 + 𝑔) and this 𝜕𝑘 < 0
- Under ‘k=0 is 𝑐 < 𝑓(𝑘) − (𝑛 + 𝑔)𝑘, k increases (income used for savings is larger than
break-even investments), so ′𝑘 > 0, arrows towards the right, over the curve the opposite
holds, arrow towards the left ′𝑘 < 0.
Intuition:
- ′𝑐 = 0 where 𝑓′(𝑘 ∗) = 𝜌 + 𝜃𝑔
- We also know that 𝑓 ′ (𝑘 ∗𝐺𝑅 ) = (𝑛 + 𝑔)
- From the assumption to ensure convergence
𝛽 = 𝜌 − 𝑛 − (1 − 𝜃)𝑔 > 0
we have that
𝜌 + 𝜃𝑔 > 𝑛 + 𝑔
- Hence, 𝑓 ′ (𝑘 ∗) > 𝑓 ′ (𝑘 ∗𝐺𝑅 )
- As 𝑓 ′′ (𝑘) < 0 (decreasing marginal productivity of capital), we have 𝑘 ∗< 𝑘 ∗𝐺𝑅
- The reason is discounting 𝜌: households value current consumption higher than future
consumption
- We also call k* the modified golden rule steady state, that is when we take discounting into
account
1. If we start above F, then k(0) will tend towards 0 which we assume is not possible
2. If we start below F, then k(t) will tend towards something large and consumption towards 0
which is not possible
Assume
4.10 Sum up
- We have considered the Ramsey growth model where consumers maximize utility and firms max
profits
- We derive two dynamic equations, one for consumption and one for capital
- We can represent the model in a phase diagram with a ′𝑐 = 0 locus and a ′𝑘 = 0 locus
- A lower discount rate increases savings and leads to more consumption in the long run
5. Diamond model
Terms:
- Overlapping-generations model: in each period, new individuals are born and old individuals
are dying
- Time is discrete: t=0,1,2
- Each agent lives for 2 periods
- Lt are individuals born in every period t
- Population grows at rate n→Lt+1=(1+n)Lt
- Since agents live for only two periods, at time t there are Lt individuals in the first period of
𝐿𝑡
their lives and 𝐿𝑡−1 = (1+𝑛) individuals in the second period of their lives
- Each individual supplies 1 unit of labor when young and divides the resulting labor income
between first period consumption and saving.
- When young individuals supply one unit of labour, earn some labour income, which is split
between first-period consumption and savings
- When old (in the second period) individuals simply consume their savings and any rental
income that accrued.
- So, we should have that
𝑆𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 = 𝑤𝑡 𝐴𝑡 − 𝐶1,𝑡
And as capital earns interest payments:
𝐶2,𝑡+1 = (1 + 𝑟𝑡+1 )(𝑤𝑡 𝐴𝑡 − 𝐶1,𝑡 )
Re-arranging yields:
1
𝐶1𝑡 + 𝐶 = 𝐴𝑡 𝑤𝑡
1 + 𝑟𝑡+1 2,𝑡+1
1−𝜃 1−𝜃
𝐶1𝑡 1 𝐶2𝑡+1
𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝑈𝑡 = + , 𝜃 > 0, 𝜌 > −1
1 −𝜃 1+𝜌1−𝜃
It is a subject to the budget restriction:
1
𝐶1𝑡 + 𝐶 = 𝐴𝑡 𝑤𝑡
1 + 𝑟𝑡+1 2,𝑡+1
- The larger the interest rate relative to discounting, the larger return to savings relative to
how impatient the household is
- Hence, the greater savings and thereby greater consumption in period 2 relative to in period
1.
1⁄
(1 + 𝑟𝑡+1 ) 𝜃
𝑠(𝑟𝑡+1 ) = (1−𝜃)⁄
1⁄
(1 + 𝜌) 𝜃 + (1 + 𝑟𝑡+1 ) 𝜃
- S is increasing in r if 𝜃 < 1
- A rise in r has an income and a substitution effect
- If r increases, consumption in the second period becomes cheaper, savings increase
(substitution effect)
- If r increases, a given amount of savings yields more second period consumption and thus
tends to decrease savings (income effect)
𝜕𝑟
= 0.
5.3 The dynamics of Capital
- Capital in period t+1 is equal to the portion of labour income saved by the young in time t:
𝐾𝑡+1 = 𝑠(𝑟𝑡+1 )𝐿𝑡 𝐴𝑡 𝑤𝑡
𝐾𝑡+1
- Since 𝑘𝑡+1 = 𝐴 , we can obtain in effective units of labour:
𝑡+1 𝐿𝑡+1
5.3.1 The evolution of capital with Cobb-Douglas production and log utility
We have both old and young people; we will get a solution where we can move something from one
generation to another.
We have capital in period t on the first axis and period t+1 on the second axis. We have a stable
solution. If we are above the steady state, for example if we had 𝑘0 . Then we have that capital in
period t+1 as a function of capital t is below the 45-degree line. K1 will be lower than K0. (This line
illustrates where capital is equal in both periods.) K* is stable, in other words, the balanced growth
path.
↔
1 1
𝑘𝑡+1 = (1 − 𝛼)𝑘𝑡𝛼
(1 + 𝑔)(1 + 𝑛) 2 + 𝜌
Strictly concave curve:
𝑑𝑘𝑡+1 1 1
- 𝑑𝑘𝑡
= (1+𝑔)(1+𝑛) 2+𝜌 (1 − 𝛼)𝛼𝑘𝑡𝛼−1 > 0
𝑑 2 𝑘𝑡+1 1 1
- 𝑑𝑘𝑡 2
= − (1+𝑔)(1+𝑛) 2+𝜌 (1 − 𝛼)2 𝛼𝑘𝑡𝛼−2 < 0
- When the discount rate changes → take the first order condition of k* wrt p.
- The answer will be lower than 0
- Hence, if the discount rate falls, k* increases.
- Graphically, the 𝑘𝑡+1 curve shifts upwards when ∆𝜌 < 0.
-
𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝑐 ∗= 𝑓(𝑘 ∗) − 𝑛𝑘 ∗
this gives:
𝑑𝑐 ∗
= 0 ↔ 𝑓′(𝑘 𝐺𝑅 ) − 𝑛 = 0 ↔ 𝑓′(𝑘 𝐺𝑅 ) = 𝑛
𝑑𝑘 ∗
Notice, this is the condition we also found when we consider the Ramsey model, where there we
had g different from 0.
(We times the potenser with each other and get -1 and hence turn 1 over the equation and turn the
brøks around)
k*>kGR if:
𝑓 ′ (𝑘 ∗) < 𝑓 ′ (𝑘 𝐺𝑅 )
𝛼
(1 + 𝑛)(2 + 𝜌) < 𝑛
1−𝛼
Hence, this will hold for a high population growth level, that is, if n is high. (relative to the discount
rate, 𝜌 and alpha 𝛼).
Social security
6. Endogenous Growth
𝑌 − 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡
𝐾 − 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙
𝐿 − 𝐿𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟
𝐴 − 𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦 𝑜𝑟 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑎𝐿 − 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑡, 𝑅&𝐷 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟
(1 − 𝑎𝐿 ) − 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑠 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟
In order to see the impact of an increase in fraction of workers, we need to differentiate 𝑔𝐴 (𝑡) wrt
𝑎𝐿 . See mock exam 2019.
To find the point where growth rate in knowledge is stable, we have to find where 𝑔𝐴 (𝑡) = 𝑔 ∗𝐴 (𝑡),
giving
′𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
=0
𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
′𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
= 𝛾𝑛 + (𝜃 − 1)[𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)] = 0
𝑔𝐴
𝛾𝑛 + (𝜃 − 1)[𝑔 ∗𝐴 (𝑡)] = 0
𝛾𝑛 𝛾𝑛
𝑔 ∗𝐴 (𝑡) = − =
(𝜃 − 1) (1 − 𝜃)
Whether theta is smaller than 1, equal to 1 of larger than 1, is going to determine how the growth
rate of the growth rate of knowledge (ga) is depending of the growth rate of knowledge.
Growth rate in Denmark is about 1%, China about 5%. When ‘gA is negative, the growth is
decreasing.
Hence, the slope of this curve changes from positive to negative when the growth rate in knowledge
𝛾𝑛
is equal to (1−𝜃) = 𝑔 ∗𝐴 . This is at the top of the curve.
𝑑2 ′𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
= 2(𝜃 − 1) > 0
𝑑𝑔𝐴 2
Knowledge is so useful in the production of new knowledge that the growth rate of knowledge rises
rather than falls.
𝛿 = 0 → 𝐾(𝑡) = 𝑠𝑌(𝑡)
- We now have two endogenous state variables, A and K
- Substituting in for Y(t) and dividing both sides by K(t) to obtain growth rate in capital
Hence, there is always positive growth in capital. And the growth rate in the growth rate in capital is:
′𝑔𝐾 (𝒕)
= (𝟏 − 𝜶)(𝑔𝐴 (𝑡) + 𝑛 − 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡))
𝑔𝐾 (𝒕)
(In order to get this function, we first, take logs and then differentiate with respect to time.
We draw 𝑔𝐾 = 0 into a diagram with 𝑔𝐴 on the first axis and 𝑔𝐾 on the second axis
The intercept is equal to n population growth, so the higher population growth, the more growth we
are going to have in capital. And that is because when there are more workers, there are more
people to produce output, which means there will be more saved. When we have a fixed savings
rate, therefore we will have more capital.
The reason for why we have these arrows is to know if we are in equilibrium, are we approaching
the equilibrium or opposite? (Stable/unstable equilibrium).
We draw the ′𝑔𝐴 = 0 lucus into a diagram with 𝑔𝐴 on the first axis and 𝑔𝐾 on the second axis:
′𝑔𝐴 (𝑡) 𝛾 (1 − 𝜃)
= 0 ↔ 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) = − 𝑛 + 𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
𝑔𝐴 (𝑡) 𝛽 𝛽
So, here we have the relationship between 𝑔𝐾 and 𝑔𝐴 which implies that ′𝑔𝐴 = 0, hence we can
draw this curve into a diagram. Notice that we need 𝜃 < 1 as otherwise the curve will have a
negative slope and then it will never cross the 𝑔𝐾 = 0 curve, which we just derived. Hence there
would be no equilibrium.
Arrows: Consider
′𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
= 𝛽𝑔𝐾 + 𝛾𝑛 + (𝜃 − 1)𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
We draw the ′𝑔𝐴 = 0 lucus into a diagram with 𝑔𝐴 on the first axis and 𝑔𝐾 on the second axis:
If 𝛽 + 𝜃 < 1, decreasing returns to technology: the slope of the ′𝑔𝐴 = 0 locus, is greater than the
slope of the ′𝑔𝐾 = 0 locus:
𝑑𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
= |′𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)=0 > = |′𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)=0
𝑑𝑔𝐴 (𝑡) 𝑑𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
↔
1−𝜃
>1
𝛽
↔
1>𝜃+𝛽
𝛽+𝜃 <1
Initial value of 𝑔𝐾 , that is 𝑔𝐾 (0), and initial value of 𝑔𝐴 , that is 𝑔𝐴 (0), depend on the initial values of
K, A and L. We need to slope of ′𝑔𝐴 to be greater than the slope of ′𝑔𝐾 , other wise they will not cross
eachother. We have shown that 𝛽 + 𝜃 < 1 corresponds to that the slope of the ′𝑔𝐴 = 0 locus is
greater than the slope of the ′𝑔𝐾 = 0 locus. They are meeting where the growth rate is stable at
both a and k. The reason for why they wont cross if the slope of a is smaller than the slope of k, is
that the intercept is lower for k than a.
Equilibrium: Where the two loci cross ′𝑔𝐴 (𝑡) = ′𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) = 0
′𝑔𝐴 = 0 ↔ 0 = 𝛽𝑔 ∗𝐾 + 𝛾𝑛 + (𝜃 − 1)𝑔 ∗𝐴
′𝑔𝐾 = 0 ↔ 0 = (1 − 𝛼)(𝑔 ∗𝐴 + 𝑛 − 𝑔 ∗𝐾 )
Equal to:
(Hence, we need to solve two equations in two unknowns because both needs to hold where the
two loci cross:)
(1 − 𝜃)𝑔 ∗𝐴 = 𝛽𝑔 ∗𝐾 + 𝛾𝑛
𝑔 ∗𝐾 = 𝑔 ∗𝐴 + 𝑛
Substitute second equation into the first
(1 − 𝜃)𝑔 ∗𝐴 = 𝛽(𝑔 ∗𝐴 + 𝑛) + 𝛾𝑛
𝛽+𝛾
𝑔 ∗𝐴 = 𝑛
1−𝜃−𝛽
𝑔 ∗𝐾 = 𝑔 ∗𝐴 + 𝑛
𝛽+𝛾 1+𝛾−𝜃
𝑔 ∗𝐾 = ( + 1) 𝑛 = 𝑛
1−𝜃−𝛽 1−𝜃−𝛽
Equilibrium growth depends positively on population growth, productivity of capital, 𝛽, productivity
of labour 𝛾, and productivity of knowledge 𝜃.
Stability: The equilibrium is stable as narrows point toward the equilibrium E. We have stability both
regarding the ′𝑔𝐴 = 0 = ′𝑔𝐾 = 0. All the arrows points towards the equilibrium, in contrast to the
Ramsey model, where they all don’t point towards the equilibrium.
Because remember that 𝜃 < 1. Beta increases, capital increases. Capital becomes more efficient for
∗
𝑑𝑔𝐴
knowledge production, then knowledge will be produced at a higher growth rate. 𝑑𝛽
> 0.
We differentiate wrt 𝛾
𝑑𝑔𝐴∗ 1
= 𝑛>0
𝑑𝛾 1−𝜃−𝛽
When labour becomes more efficient in the production of knowledge, that is 𝛾 increases, then the
growth rate of knowledge in the steady state, increases. This happens because now labour is more
efficient for knowledge production and therefore knowledge, A, will be produced at a higher growth
rate.
What happens when 𝜃 increases, that is exisisting knowledge A becomes more efficient in
knowledge production:
𝑑𝑔 ∗𝐴 𝛽 + 𝛾(−1) 𝛽+𝛾
=− 2
𝑛= 𝑛>0
𝑑𝜃 (1 − 𝜃 − 𝛽) (1 − 𝜃 − 𝛽)2
Hence, when exisiting knowledge becomes more important for knowledge production, then the
growth rate of knowledge production increases.
𝑔𝐾∗ = 𝑔𝐴∗ + 𝑛
As the growth rate of capital is equal to the growth rate of knowledge plus population growth, then
the impact of the parameter values on the growth rate of knowledge will be similar to the impact on
the growth rate of capital. With respect to population growth, we showed that a higher n increased
𝑔𝐴∗ and therefore a higher n also increases 𝑔𝐾∗ then we have a total positive impact from population
growth on the growth rate of capital.
6.11 The General, 𝛽 + 𝜃 = 1, 𝑛 = 0
If 𝛽 + 𝜃 = 1, and no population growth, 𝑛 = 0, the slope of the ′𝑔𝐴 = 0 locus is 1, which is equal to
the slope of the ′𝑔𝐾 = 0 locus:
𝑑𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) 1−𝜃
= |′𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)=0 = =1
𝑑𝑔𝐴 (𝑡) 𝛽
↔
𝑑𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
1 = 𝜃 + 𝛽, = |′𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)=0 = 1
𝑑𝑔𝐴 (𝑡)
Hence, if there is population growth, then as the ′𝑔𝐴 = 0 curve crosses the second acis in the
negative part of the diagram, and the ′𝑔𝐾 = 0 curve crosses the second axis in the positive part of
the diagram and as the two curves have the same slope, then they will be parallel and never cross,
UNLESS n=0, because then the two curves lie on top of each other. It is the only way we can get a
solution!!!!
𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)|′𝑔𝐴(𝑡)=𝑔𝐴(𝑡)=0 = 0, 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)|′𝑔𝐾(𝑡)=𝑔𝐴(𝑡)=0 = 0
Hence, the two loci are on top of each other. Unless they are on top of eachother, they are just
going to be parallel.
Initial value of 𝑔𝐾 , that is 𝑔𝐾 (0), and initial value of 𝑔𝐴 , that is 𝑔𝐴 (𝑡), depend on initial values of K, A
and L.
Equilibrium:
0 = 𝛽𝑔 ∗𝐾 + (𝜃 − 1)𝑔 ∗𝐴
0 = (𝑔 ∗𝐴 − 𝑔 ∗𝐾 )
Which again is equal to:
(1 − 𝜃)𝑔 ∗𝐴 = 𝛽𝑔 ∗𝐾
𝑔 ∗𝐾 = 𝑔 ∗𝐴
As 1 = 𝜃 + 𝛽 is 1 − 𝜃 = 𝛽, and hence the two equations are identical.
Hence, any equilibria on the 45 degree line, all point will be on the balanced growth path, with equal
growth in capital and knowledge.
Stability: The equilibria are stable as arrows point toward the 45 degree line.
It is possible to derive the unique though, but not part of the syllabus.
6.12 The nature of Knowledge and the determinants of the allocation of resources to
RD
- The shares going to research and development are of course not constant
- So what determines 𝑎𝐿 and 𝑎𝐾 ?
- Knowledge comes in many forms, but the general thing is that it is a non-rival good (can be
used by everyone at the same time)
- This implies: marginal cost of supplying an item of knowledge to an additional user, once
discovered, is zero
- Rental price of knowledge in a competitive market is zero.
- Knowledge may be excludable: depends on the nature of the knowledge (recipe for Coca
Cola) and institutions (property rights, for example patent laws)
- The degree of excludability then determines how many private resources we can expect to
be allocated into the production of a certain good
- If not excludable, it could call for public funding, if there is an externality for society.
- Coronavirus: production and development ok?
- Denmark: a lot of public funding for this good. Where all education is public. People in
general are getting some? Important for other people than those who can directly use it.
𝑔𝐾 = 𝑠𝐾(𝑡)𝛼+∅(1−𝛼) [𝐵𝐿(𝑡)]1−𝛼
𝛼 + ∅(1 − 𝛼) − 1 = (∅ − 1)(1 − 𝛼)
- Then we get
𝑔𝐾 = 𝑠𝐾(𝑡)(∅−1)(1−𝛼) [𝐵𝐿(𝑡)]1−𝛼
′𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
= (∅ − 1)(1 − 𝛼)𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) + (1 − 𝛼)𝑛
𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
𝑔𝐾 0 1 2 3 4 5
′𝑔𝐾 0,5(2 ∗ 0 0,5(2 ∗ 1 0,5(2 ∗ 2 0,5(2 ∗ 3 0,5(2 ∗ 4 0,5(2 ∗ 5
− 0,5 ∗ 0) − 0,5 ∗ 12 ) − 0,5 ∗ 22 ) − 0,5 ∗ 32 ) − 0,5 ∗ 42 ) − 0,5 ∗ 52 )
0 0,75 1 0,75 0 -1,25
0.5
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-0.5
-1
-1.5
2. Find the stable growth rate for capital in this model of learning by doing, that is, find 𝑔 ∗𝐾 :
We then use the equation and find the stable point:
′𝑔𝑘 (𝑡) = 0
0,5(2𝑔 ∗𝐾 − 0,5(𝑔 ∗𝐾 )2 ) = 0
(2𝑔 ∗𝐾 − 0,5(𝑔 ∗𝐾 )2 ) = 0
2𝑔 ∗𝐾 = 0,5(𝑔 ∗𝐾 )2
2 = 0,5𝑔 ∗𝐾
𝑔 ∗𝐾 = 4
3. Consider now a change in Ø to 2 and draw the curve for 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)=0,1,2,3. What happens?
𝑔𝐾 1 2 3
′𝑔𝐾 0,5(2 ∗ 1 + 0,5 0,5(2 ∗ 2 + 0,5 ∗ 22 ) 0,5(2 ∗ 3 + 0,5 ∗ 32 )
∗ 12 )
1,5 4 7,5
Growth rate
8
0
1 2 3
Growth rate
′𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) is now an exponential function of 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡). This means that the growth rate never converges,
and it will explode over time.
Series 1
4.5
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
1 2 3 4
Series 1
6.14 The relationship for the growth rate
The change in the growth rate of K over time with learning by doing is
Move the order of the numbers so you can see that it is going to look like what we had for the
endogenous model without capital.
2
′𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) = (1 − 𝛼) (𝑛𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) + (∅ − 1)(𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)) )
As the curve for the model for the dynamics for A without capital. To draw the curve as a function of
𝑔𝐾 :
We first find the slope by differentiating with respect to the growth rate in capital, 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡):
𝑑′ 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
= (1 − 𝛼)(𝑛 + 2(∅ − 1)𝑔𝐾 (𝑡))
𝑑𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
And the second derivative tells us whether the slop is constant or changing with 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
′
𝑑2 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
= (2(∅ − 1)(1 − 𝛼))
𝑑𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
Hence, the slope of the curve depends on the value of ∅, that is, the effect of the existing stock of
capital on knowledge production. Depends on Ø is smaller than, higher than or equal to 1.
′𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
=0
𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)
↔
0 = (1 − 𝛼)(∅ − 1)𝑔 ∗𝐾 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑛
𝑛
𝑔 ∗𝐾 =
1−∅
This is the stable solution.
Example:
The change in the growth rate of K over time with learning by doing is
2
′𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) = (1 − 𝛼) (𝑛𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) + (∅ − 1)(𝑔𝐾 (𝑡)) )
1. Draw the curve for the change over time in the growth rate of capital for 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) = 0,1, … ,5
2. Find the stable growth rate for capital in this model of learning by doing, that is find 𝑔 ∗𝐾 .
3. Consider now a change in ∅ to 2 and draw the curve for 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) = 0,1,2,3,4
- Learning by doing, constant return and no population growth, n=0. The AK model.
- The production function is then:
𝑌(𝑡) = 𝐴𝐾(𝑡)
Where 𝐴 = [𝐵𝐿]1−𝛼 . Capital accumulation is then:
′𝐾(𝑡)
′𝐾(𝑡) = 𝑠𝐴𝐾(𝑡) ↔ 𝑔𝐾 (𝑡) = 𝑔 ∗𝐾 = = 𝑠𝐴
𝐾(𝑡)
- Hence, capital grows steadily at sA
SUM UP:
- We have considered a Solow growth model with endogenous knowledge, RD and capital
- We first considered the model without capital and increasing, diminishing and constant
return to RD
- We then considered the general case with capital and drew a ′𝑔𝐴 = 0 locus and ′𝑔𝐾 = 0
locus into a phase diagram
- We again considered different cases
- Finally, we considered a learning by doing model,
- The AK model, where we can obtain perpetual growth (not syllabus)
- Hence, this chapter served to give some understanding of what is important for long run
growth: the investments in RD
- Differences in capital stocks across countries are not able to explain differences in income
across countries. (Studied in the Solow-model, Chapter 1, and in Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans
model, Chapter 2).
- Knowledge production and dissemination of technology across countries. Since
knowledge/technology is non-rival it is unlikely that this should be an important explanation
for cross-countries income differences. (Studied in Endogenous Growth, Chapter 3).
- Social infrastructure: Political institutions, geography, religion → a reason for the countries
to have these. Where to start? How far back should we go?
- Statistical techniques.
- Drawback: Lower confidence in conclusions.
- Advantage: Considers more deep determinants of income.
- Difference: in stead of having A times L, we will have an A times H. Remember: going to look
like Solow model, small differences. Labour force would be homogenous. Now we allow this
labour force to heterogeneous, that is; we have different kind of workers in the labour force.
- Model of growth that includes both physical and human capital
- Purpose: Study cross-country income differences.
- Solow model: exogenous savings rate. If we instead used the Ramsey model, which includes
endogenous savings, to explain cross-country differences, then we would need some
evidence on cross country for preferences, which is more difficult to obtain.
We assume we have a CRS (constant returns to scale) production function with human capital H(t):
Chapter 1: Solow Growth model, micro foundation, no endogenous growth, savings rate was
exogenous.
Chapter 2: Endogenous consumption, and therefore savings. Ramsey model – continuous time,
everyone lived forever. Diamond model, 2 periods of time where we had young who consumed and
worked and old who only consumed and lived on their savings. The savings is the capital
accumulated as savings when they were young.
Chapter 3: Disregard this micro foundation which we had in chapter 2, let us in stead return the kind
of the setup we had in chapter 1, we had micro foundation, no house hold maximization of utility or
firms maximizing profits, in stead we had exogenous saving rate. Let us now endogenize knowledge
production, that is what we did in chapter 3, part of it.
′𝐴(𝑡) = 𝑔𝐴(𝑡)
Human Capital
′𝐿(𝑡) = 𝑛𝐿(𝑡)
- N is the growth rate of population and therefore labour force, because now everyone is
entering the labour force when they are born. Everyone is working (a difference to the
diamond model)
- Functional form of G(E). We must have 𝐺 ′ (𝐸) > 0. That is human capital then increases in
years of schooling. We need that it is increasing in education. The more education you have
the more human capital you have. When E is increasing, G is increasing, and H is increasing.
- Evidence suggests that one year extra schooling increases an individual’s wage by the same
percentage amount. Hence, if wages equal to marginal productivity
𝐺(𝐸) = 𝑒 ∅𝐸 , ∅ > 0
7.1.1 Dynamics of k
- Dynamics as in Solow model, as G(E) does not depend on t
- Let k(t) = K(t)=(A(t)H(t)) = K(t)=(A(t)G(E)L(t))
- We are interested in drawing the curve ‘k(t) (with a dot because it is growth) into a diagram,
and it will look exactly as the Solow growth model, we just now have that instead of having
k(t) = K(t)/(A(t)L(t)) we will have k(t) = K(t)/(A(t)H(t)). We reached the steady level where k is
stable and not will change, but it will be a change in output. We will have that output per
worker in the steady state will then depend on the growth rate in the economy. Here we will
have a steady state in output per worker, by increasing human capital. (Each person will be
richer and richer every year due to the increase in technology. Same way here – a possibility
of increasing output per worker by increasing human capital.)
- The development in capital per unit of effective labour is then (notice, I have taking 1/G(E)
outside the parenthesis as it does NOT depend on time, so when I differentiate wrt time, I
will not differentiate G(E) with respect to time. A fraction and a product.)
Then we get:
𝑠𝑌(𝑡) − 𝛿𝐾(𝑡)
𝑘(′ 𝑡) = − 𝑘(𝑡)𝑔 − 𝑘(𝑡)𝑛
𝐴(𝑡)𝐺(𝐸)𝐿(𝑡)
𝑠𝑌(𝑡) 𝛿𝐾(𝑡)
𝑘(′ 𝑡) = − − 𝑘(𝑡)𝑔 − 𝑘(𝑡)𝑛
𝐴(𝑡)𝐺(𝐸)𝐿(𝑡) 𝐴(𝑡)𝐺(𝐸)𝐿(𝑡)
𝑠𝑌(𝑡)
𝑘(′ 𝑡) = − 𝛿𝑘(𝑡) − 𝑘(𝑡)𝑔 − 𝑘(𝑡)𝑛
𝐴(𝑡)𝐺(𝐸)𝐿(𝑡)
𝑌(𝑡)
𝑓(𝑘(𝑡)) = = 𝑘(𝑡)𝛼
𝐴(𝑡)𝐺(𝐸)𝐿(𝑡)
In total we get:
- G(E)A does not depend on savings: A grows at the rate g and G(E) is constant.
- Years of schooling increases output per workers on a balanced growth path by the same
𝑌 𝑌
proportion as it increases : Remember, if 𝑦 = (G(E)AL) then 𝐿 = 𝑦𝐺(𝐸)𝐴. Hence even
though in a steady state output measured in efficiency units of human capital is stable, then
when we measure output per worker, this changes with A and G(E). The latter is the new
thing is this human capital model.
𝑌 𝑌
- Remember in the Solow Growth model we had that ′ / = 𝑔 in the steady state.
𝐿 𝐿
- But even though this is still, the growth rate in output per worker, and therefore the right
measure to use if we want to consider how big the growth rate in output per worker is (as
G(E) does noe depend on time) then output per worker increases with G(E), so if education
𝑌
increases, then each person in the economy becomes richer, as then, 𝐿 = 𝑦𝐺(𝐸)𝐴
increases!!! In a steady state.
𝑌
𝑑 /𝑑𝐸 = 𝑦𝐺(𝐸)𝐴 > 0
𝐿
Implication for cross-country differences:
1. Can depend on differences in human capital (different educational level in different countries)
Consider a country i
𝑌𝑖 𝐾𝑖 𝐻𝑖
= 𝛼𝑙𝑛 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑙𝑛 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑙𝑛𝐴𝑖
𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖
- An alternative composition may be more interesting
𝑌
- Subtract 𝛼𝑙𝑛 𝐿 𝑖
𝑖
𝑌𝑖 𝐾𝑖 𝑌𝑖 𝐻𝑖
(1 − 𝛼)𝑙𝑛 = 𝛼 (𝑙𝑛 − 𝑙𝑛 ) + (1 − 𝛼)𝑙𝑛 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑙𝑛𝐴𝑖
𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖
𝑌𝑖 𝐾𝑖 𝐻𝑖
(1 − 𝛼)𝑙𝑛 = 𝛼𝑙𝑛 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑙𝑛 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑙𝑛𝐴𝑖
𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖
𝑌𝑖 𝛼 𝐾𝑖 𝐻𝑖
𝑙𝑛 = 𝑙𝑛 + 𝑙𝑛 + 𝑙𝑛𝐴𝑖
𝐿𝑖 (1 − 𝛼) 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖
- In words: Output per worker = capital share of output + education level of workforce +
productivity
- Capital share of output the same on balanced growth path in capital accumulation models
Results:
- Consider a country i
𝑌𝑖 𝛼 𝐾𝑖 𝐻𝑖
𝑙𝑛
= 𝑙𝑛 + 𝑙𝑛 + 𝑙𝑛𝐴𝑖
𝐿𝑖 (1 − 𝛼) 𝐿𝑖 𝐿𝑖
- 1990’s compare richest five to poorest five countries
- Data for income shares suggest 𝛼 = 1/3 (physical capital’s share in the production function)
𝑌
LHS difference 3.5 (implies 𝑌 𝑟𝑖𝑐ℎ ~32)
𝑝𝑜𝑜𝑟
- Capital share difference 0.6 (implies capital share rich 1.8 times higher)
- Education (measured as years of schooling) difference 0.8 (implies effective education level
2.2 times higher for rich vs poor countries)
- Productivity difference 2.1 (implies productivity 8 times higher for richer than poor)
7.3 What is A?
A is the primary driver of differences between rich and poor countries
1. Social infrastructure
- Rules of the game, mostly the policy
- Romer splits it into:
→ Distortionary taxes
→ Poor contract enforcement and property protection
→ Government corruption
- To a degree can be measures
Natural experiment:
Culture:
- "In the case of culture, it seems clear that views and norms about such matters as thrift,
education, trust, and the merits of material success could directly affect economic
performance...the evidence on this issue is very limited."
- The sociological view, cultural determinism
→ If so, not clear what we can/should do
→ Plays into deserving vs undeserving poor
→ Implications for immigration debate?
→ A dangerous idea?
→ and where do we start, culture is likely to be endogenous.
SUM UP:
Solow model (1) Ramsey Model and Endogenous growth Differences between
Diamond model (2) (3) countries (4)
Savings exogenous Savings endogenous Savings exogenous Savings exogenous
No heterogeneity Ramsey: No 3 models: Discussion about
heterogeneity 1. No capital social infrastructure.
2. With capital Capital explain little of
Diamond: 3. Learning by doing cross country
Heterogeneity difference in Y/L. A
1.2.: sector for explains more.
knowledge production Different
3.: knowledge would determinants of A
be a bi-product of given in the chapter
capital production in
the economy
No micro foundation Micro foundation No micro foundation No micro foundation
Household maximizing
utility and firms
maximizing profits
Diamond model:
Dynamix inefficiency
possible
Golden rule steady Ramsey: Always below
state: level where we golden rule due to
discounting
maximize
consumption
9. Unemployment
Her research – important I guess.
- Why do we have an average (that is, natural or structural) unemployment rate in the
economy which is positive
- and why do unemployment vary across countries and over time? (related to different
unemployment rates in different countries, low in Northern, high in Southern)
- Now – rise in unemployment due to Corona virus
- OECD data: unemployment varies over time and across countries. Search and Matching
models.
- A job can be vacant or filled (ad in newspaper etc, might take a while. Some takes longer
than others due to different qualification, tests, interviews)
- A filled job gives output y and costs w(t)
- A job, filled or vacant, involves a constant exogenous cost c > 0 per unit of time (interviewer,
ad etc)
- There is free entry of new firms (important!!! Because it implies that you don’t have a fixed
number of firms in the economy, that is wrong, you will never have that)
- Hence the number of jobs is endogenous
- Exogenous shock
- Countries are in a recession
- Shut down firms → increase in unemployment → fewer jobs for all workers
- Workers are being fired
- Job finding rate (also called transition rate), how easy it is for a worker to find a job, then
becomes:
Equation (1)
- hence more vacancies relative to unemployment, a tighter labour market, makes it easier for
a worker to get a job, hence the higher 𝜃 is.
- but as 𝛾<1 the increase in the job finding rate is less than proportional to the increase in
labour market tightness
- The vacancy filling rate is:
Equation (2)
Equation (3)
- The returns to having a filled (f) and unfilled (V - vacancy) job are
Equation (5)
Equation (6)
Equation (7)
- The value of something is not exactly the same when you take logs vs. when you don’t. But
when you maximize it, you will get the same answer.
- FOC, differentiate wrt w(t) and let equal to zero
Ø 𝑑𝑉𝐸 (𝑡) (1 − Ø) 𝑑𝑉𝐹 (𝑡)
+ =0
(𝑉𝐸 (𝑡) − 𝑉𝑈 (𝑡)) 𝑑𝑤(𝑡) (𝑉𝐹 (𝑡) − 𝑉𝑉 (𝑡)) 𝑑𝑤(𝑡)
- As 𝑉𝑈 and 𝑉𝑉 do not depend on wages, we do not have to differentiate wrt to them, they are
a constant and will be 0.
𝑑𝑉𝐸 (𝑡) 1 𝑑𝑉𝐹 (𝑡) −1
- Now substituting for 𝑑𝑤(𝑡)
= (𝑟+𝜆) and 𝑑𝑤(𝑡)
= (𝑟+𝜆) in this equation to obtain
Ø 1 (1 − Ø) 1
− =0
𝑉𝐸 (𝑡) − 𝑉𝑈 (𝑡) (𝑟 + 𝜆) 𝑉𝐹 (𝑡) − 𝑉𝑉 (𝑡) (𝑟 + 𝜆)
↔
Equation (8)
Ø
(𝑉 (𝑡) − 𝑉𝑉 (𝑡)) = 𝑉𝐸 (𝑡) − 𝑉𝑈 (𝑡)
(1 − Ø) 𝐹
- Free entry implies, new firms come into market until there is not more profits
- Here the workers will get the marginal productivity. But we have frictions and therefore we
get different results.
- We consider the steady state, that is where V(t)’s and ‘E(t) are zero. No growth in
employment or V.
- That is, we have (3) and (4) where we removed (t) and ‘V
𝑟𝑉𝐸 = 𝑤 − 𝜆(𝑉𝐸 − 𝑉𝑈 )
𝑟𝑉𝑈 = 𝑏 + 𝑎(𝑉𝐸 − 𝑉𝑈 )
- The returns to having a filled and unfilled job are (5) and (6) where we removed (t) and ‘V
𝑟𝑉𝐹 = 𝑦 − 𝑤 + 𝑐 − 𝜆(𝑉𝐹 − 𝑉𝑉 )
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = −𝑐 + 𝛼(𝑉𝐹 − 𝑉𝑉 )
Equation (9)
𝑦−𝑤
(𝑉𝐹 − 𝑉𝑉 ) =
(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼)
- We insert these two expressions into the Nash Bargaining solution for wages, (8) to obtain
Ø
(𝑉 − 𝑉𝑉 ) = 𝑉𝐸 − 𝑉𝑈
(1 − Ø) 𝐹
Ø 𝑦−𝑤 𝑤−𝑏
( )=
(1 − Ø) (𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼) (𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎)
Ø𝑦 − Ø𝑤 𝑤−𝑏
=
(1 − Ø)(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼) (𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎)
Ø𝑦(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎) − Ø𝑤(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎) = 𝑤(1 − Ø)(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼) − 𝑏(1 − Ø)(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼)
Ø𝑦(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎) + 𝑏(1 − Ø)(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼) = 𝑤(1 − Ø)(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼) + Ø𝑤(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎)
Intuition
- Suppose 𝑎 = 𝛼 then
𝑤 = 𝑏 + ø(𝑦 − 𝑏)
- That is, a fraction, ø of the difference between output, y, and the value of leisure, b goes to
the worker and a fraction, 1-ø goes to the firm
- The higher ø is, the higher is the wage
- Suppose 𝑎 ≠ 𝛼, then the wage equation is
ø(𝑦 − 𝑏)(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎)
𝑤 =𝑏+
(𝑟 + 𝜆 + ø𝑎 + (1 − ø)𝛼)
Example, an increase in workers bargaining power could be due to that you have stronger
unions. History: during the last decades, a lot of unions in UK and US has been weakened →
led to reduction in wages for some workers. Higher bargaining power → higher wages.
Worker’s job finding rate
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = −𝑐 + 𝛼(𝑉𝐹 − 𝑉𝑉 )
Substitute for the difference between the value of a filled job and a vacant job, equation (9)
𝑦−𝑤
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = −𝑐 + 𝛼
(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼)
Substitute for wages
ø(𝑦 − 𝑏)(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎)
𝑦 − (𝑏 + )
(𝑟 + 𝜆 + ø𝑎 + (1 − ø)𝛼)
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = −𝑐 + 𝛼
(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼)
𝛼 ø(𝑦 − 𝑏)(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝑎)
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = −𝑐 + (𝑦 − (𝑏 + ))
(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 𝛼) (𝑟 + 𝜆 + ø𝑎 + (1 − ø)𝛼)
Equation (11)
𝜆𝐸 = 𝑈1−𝛾 𝑉 𝛾
- Furthermore, as the number of workers is normalised to one, we have E+U=1
- Use that the worker’s job finding rate is given by equation (1)
Equation (13)
𝑎 = 𝑈(𝑡)−𝛾 𝑉(𝑡)𝛾 = 𝜃 𝛾
Hence, in a steady state the number of matches, 𝑈1−𝛾 𝑉 𝛾 is equal to the number of separations, 𝜆𝐸:
0 = 𝑈1−𝛾 𝑉 𝛾 − 𝜆𝐸
𝑉𝛾
𝑈 = 𝜆𝐸
𝑈𝛾
𝑉 𝛾
𝑈 ( ) = 𝜆𝐸
𝑈
(1 − 𝐸)𝜃 𝛾 = 𝜆𝐸
𝑉
Use that E+U=1 → U=1-E and 𝑈 = 𝜃
𝑎 = 𝑈 −0,5 𝑉 0,5
𝜆𝐸
𝑉 0,5 = 𝑎𝑈 0,5 = (1 − 𝐸)0,5
1−𝐸
𝜆𝐸
𝑉 0,5 = (1 − 𝐸)0,5
1−𝐸
𝜆𝐸 1/0,5
𝑉=( ) (1 − 𝐸)0,5/0,5
1−𝐸
𝜆𝐸 2
𝑉=( ) (1 − 𝐸)
1−𝐸
𝑉 = (𝜆𝐸)2 (1 − 𝐸)−2+1
𝑉 = (𝜆𝐸)2 (1 − 𝐸)−1
And the vacancy filling rate 𝛼 is found by using equation (2) to obtain
𝜆𝐸 −1 1
𝛼 = (1 − 𝐸)1 𝜆𝐸 −1 = ( ) =
1−𝐸 𝑎
1
𝛼=
𝑎
1
𝑎=
𝛼
Note:
- The job finding rate is the number of matches, which depends on vacancies and unemployed
workers divided by the number of unemployed workers. The vacancy finding rate is instead
the number of matches divided by the number of vacancies. If it becomes easier for a
worker to find a job, that is, the job finding rate a increases, then it on the other hand
becomes more difficult for a firm to find a worker, that is falls.
- Whenever the workers’ job finding rate increases, the firms’ vacancy filling rate decreases.
The more jobs you have relative to unemployed workers, the more difficult it is to each firm
to find a worker.
- Workers’ job finding rate, a; increases in the number of jobs, E
- Firms’ vacancy filling rate, 𝛼 decreases in the number of job E
- As E approaches 1 (no unemployment) a approaches infinity and 𝛼 approaches 0 and 𝑟𝑉𝑉
approaches -c. The cost of having a vacancy is -c, because there are no expected return to
open a vacancy.
- As E approaches 0 (no employment – no jobs for the workers) a approaches 0 and 𝛼
approaches infinity and 𝑟𝑉𝑉 approaches y-(b + c) (to see this rewrite (10))
- The intercept with the x-axis is where 𝑟𝑉𝑉 = 0. To the left of this there will be more and
more firms coming into the market and there is a surplus, and when it reaches 0, there are
no further jobs supplied in this market. This the steady state equilibrium in the economy.
9.4.1 Equilibrium employment level
Free entry implies that there will be firms entering until the value of supplying a vacancy is zero:
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = 0
Using this in equation (10) gives the following equation to determine E
𝛼(1 − ø)
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = −𝑐 + (𝑦 − 𝑏)
(𝑟 + 𝜆 + ø𝑎 + (1 − ø)𝛼)
Let ø=0,5
𝛼0,5
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = −𝑐 + (𝑦 − 𝑏)
(𝑟 + 𝜆 + 0,5𝑎 + 0,5𝛼)
Equation (14)
𝛼
𝑟𝑉𝑉 = −𝑐 + (𝑦 − 𝑏)
(2(𝑟 + 𝜆) + 𝑎 + 𝛼)
Equation (15)
𝜆𝐸 1−𝐸
𝑎= , 𝛼 = 1/𝑎 =
1−𝐸 𝜆𝐸
Equation (14) and (15) determine a, 𝛼 and E
THESE TWO EQUATIONS ARE IMPORTANT AND RELEVANT FOR THE EXAM
Equation (16)
1/𝑎
𝑐= (𝑦 − 𝑏)
(2(𝑟 + 𝜆) + 𝑎 + 𝛼)
Equation (17)
𝜆𝐸
𝑎=
1−𝐸
Next, 𝛼 is found as 𝛼 = 1/𝑎
The left-hand side describe the cost of a vacancy, the right-hand side the benefit. Lambda is in the
denominator, meaning that when lambda increases, the benefit of posting a vacancy decreases.
Why? With a high lambda, even if the firm manages to fill the vacancy and produce something, there
is a high risk that in the period afterwards, the job is going to be destroyed (at a rate lambda).
What does this mean for the job finding rate, a? If lambda is high, firms are going to post fewer
vacancies because the cost seems too high given the uncertain benefit. a is falling.
About the last sentence in the question: y is always larger than b, otherwise no jobs would ever be
posted. If unemployment benefits are higher than the output of what the worker could produce
when working, no worker would be willing to accept a job offer. Because firms know this, they would
never post any vacancies.
You explain that if lambda is low (like in Italy), then firms will want to post fewer vacancies and your
explanation makes sense. However, looking at the formula for the benefits of hiring a worker, it
seems like benefits increase with a smaller lambda. This would then mean that in countries like Italy,
firms would want to post more vacancies, as the benefits are higher?
The reason is that the model doesn't capture on crucial element that describes reality, namely firing.
(Remember that lambda is an exogenous probability that a job just evaporates, regardless of
whether the worker or the firm would like to continue the match.)
In reality, a firm might want to fire a person because they realize he or she is not good at the job. If
they can't to that because of a law, they will think twice about hiring someone in the first place. Both
aspects that I just described (the fact that different workers have different productivities, and the
endogenous wish to fire someone) do not exist in the world of this model (at least not in the version
we study here).
9.3 Comparative statics, output increases
We look at what happens if there is a change in one of the parameter values in the steady state, b, Y,
Lambda, phi.
Coronavirus: there is a change in the economy that has an impact on employment. We look at this
through a change in the job finding rate. Whenever employment falls, unemployment increases. We
have to take into account that it also has an impact on wages.
Suppose there is a positive shock to output (the economy is going into a boom)
Hopefully after Corona: increase in productivity, in y, what would be the impact on employment and
unemployment, hopefully what we will see is that; a high y will lead to more jobs in the economy,
because right now see a huge unemployment rate in the economy.
𝑑𝑎
(1 − 𝐸)𝑑𝑦 − 𝑎𝑑𝐸 = 𝜆𝑑𝐸
𝑑𝑦
Solve for the change in e and a with respect to the change in y. da/dy is the change in the jobfinding
rate with respect to productivity. We just timed with dy in the nominator and the denominator for it
to look like that.
Equal to
1 1 1
𝑐 (1 − 2
) 𝑑𝑎 = − 2 (𝑦 − 𝑏)𝑑𝑎 + 𝑑𝑦
𝑎 𝑎 𝑎
1 1 1
(𝑐 (1 − 2
) + 2 (𝑦 − 𝑏)) 𝑑𝑎 = + 𝑑𝑦
𝑎 𝑎 𝑎
𝑑𝑎 1 1
=
𝑑𝑦 𝑎 1 1
(𝑐 (1 − ) + 2 (𝑦 − 𝑏))
𝑎2 𝑎
Since we not yet can see if the denominator is positive, we have to simplify it a bit more.
𝑑𝑎 1 1
= >0
𝑑𝑦 𝑎 1
(𝑐 + 2 (𝑦 − 𝑏 − 𝑐))
𝑎
1 1
( 2
(𝑦 − 𝑏 − 𝑐) + 𝑐) 𝑑𝑎 = 𝑑𝑦
𝑎 𝑎
Now, we can see that the cost of opening vacancy is smaller than -b, so if this is positive (which we
assume), the expressions is positive. Higher productivity of worker → more jobs formed → worker’s
transition rate is going to increase
𝑑𝑎
(1 − 𝐸)𝑑𝑦 − 𝑎𝑑𝐸 = 𝜆𝑑𝐸
𝑑𝑦
𝑑𝑎
(1 − 𝐸)𝑑𝑦 = (𝜆 + 𝑎)𝑑𝐸
𝑑𝑦
𝑑𝑎 (𝜆 + 𝑎)𝑑𝐸
=
𝑑𝑦 (1 − 𝐸)𝑑𝑦
𝑑𝑎(1 − 𝐸) 𝑑𝐸
=
𝑑𝑦(𝜆 + 𝑎) 𝑑𝑦
𝑑𝐸 (1 − 𝐸) 𝑑𝑎
= >0
𝑑𝑦 (𝑎 + 𝜆) 𝑑𝑦
hence employment and workers’ job finding rate increases when productivity, y, increases. This is
the case as firm’s profits rise associated with employing a worker. Hence employment increases and
unemployment fall in a boom. Similarly, we could consider the impact of a higher value of leisure, b
or higher costs of maintaining a job, c.
Do the 2 exercises for the exam. This is what you need to know for the exam!
Labor markets are characterized by high rates of turnover. In U.S. manufacturing, for example, more
than 3 percent of workers leave their jobs in a typical month. Moreover, many job changes are
associated with wage increases, particularly for young workers; thus at least some of the turnover
appears to be useful. In addition, there is high turnover of jobs themselves. In U.S. manufacturing, at
least 10 percent of existing jobs disappear each year. These statistics suggest that a nonnegligible
portion of unemployment is a largely inevitable result of the dynamics of the economy and the
complexities of the labor market.
The two perspectives are not just mirror images of one another. For example, suppose the rate of
job creation is constant over the business cycle and the rate of job destruction is countercyclical.
Then on the worker side, both margins are cyclical: the rate of inflows rises in recessions because of
the increase in the rate of job destruction, and the rate of outflow falls because of the increase in
the number of unemployed workers and the constant rate of job creation.
One conclusion of this literature is that answering seemingly simple questions about the
contributions of different margins to changes in unemployment is surprisingly hard. The details of
the sample period, the precise measures used, and subtleties of the data can have large impacts on
the results. To the extent that this work has reached firmer conclusions, it is that, from either the
firm or the worker perspective, both margins are important to changes in overall unemployment.
Model with friction, it takes time for workers to find a job, and jobs for find workers.
Corona: a huge negative shock, number of vacaces fell relative to unemployed people. A is increasing
in the number in vacanes. A will fall since vanaces fall.
Negative shock: fall in Y – fall in productivity (simple) – due to less demand (not really corona) but
fine to think this
More realistic: expand the model → empirical research on this – in class do not doiscuss this
Decrease in Y is what happens atm. Differentaite wrt y , and a and e. When a changes, e changes,
and Y will have an impact on a. 2 endogenous variables are not possible.
A is how easy it is for a worker to find a job, and hard for firms to find a worker due to competition.
Should we be able to find E in equilibrium? No, just as in the exercises. Not going to be more
complicated, but 3 hours in stead of 4 hours. Not a lot of derivation in the exam.
Diamond model
Mette Frederiksen/Donald – we can do better. You need common ground, have a planner, prime
minister can do better. Ramsey model – no externalities. In diamond, we have 2 types of people –
transfer from 1 group to group 2, in order to do better. Old and young.
When? If we were in a situation where we were below the level of capital with golden rule level of
capital (max consumption) – save more – more capital – more to next – BUT then young would be
consume less – not happy.
Everyone better of: above the golden rule level of capital. Where we have saved too much, because
it is too much capital in the economy. Save less – less capital in next period.
Above Golden rule – everyone better off: save less! Consume more – buy stuff – happy people as
young
Interest rate is decreasing the capital stock. High caooiutal stock will reduce return. Dynamic
inefficiency, too much capital accumukated. Return to caouitl when we are old will be too small.In
this situation, it is better to ask people to save less. When old: get a high return!
Why depend on n? we have to have a lot of people in the economy. When we get old, a lot of people
around. The young can pay to us when we are old.
2) ?
Older bigger than young generation: young have to work a lot to give to old.
Optimal to have a pay as you go system if high n. If everyone pays for themselves – pension. In
Denmark, low n.
Dynamic inefficiency: externalities: climate changes, world is going to turn to. Just for fun, not
syllabus.
People live for 30 years. n>2 is fine. It is like adopting a population in about 30 years.
Utility function.
Corona crisis: don’t consume now – consume a lot next year – ok I don’t care., becaue theta is 0.
Richer people relatively worse off compared to poor people, when theta is bigger than 0.
𝐶(𝑡)1−𝜃
𝑢(𝐶(𝑡)) = ,𝜃 > 0
1−𝜃
Same elasticity: – consumption times the second order derivative, divided by the first order
derivative.
Corona: Growth rate will fall. Negative growth for this year. 3%-10% estimated for Denmark.
Because we are very liable of other countries. 50% import. Depends on the how small reduction they
will have in growth rate in GDP. Everyone agrees negative GDP growth. Growth in growth rate is the
change in the growth rate in the economy.
Make sure you answer the question, and proof that you have understood!
You are suppose to write: Now I am suppose to do this and that, and give a short intuition. (SHORT!)
On the other hand, for steady state solutions and equilibrium will we have the equations in the exam
similar as we had in exercises? Yes, exactly!
But we shouldn't derive the steady state solutions unless you ask for it? No just do what you are
suppose to.
Review session!
Solow model – nothing can determine the growth rate in this economy. No heterogeneity. No
efficiency, no dynamic inefficiency. No externalities. No consumers, no firms.
Micro foundation: agents! Consumers and firms optimizing/maximizing. Ramsey and diamond model
Diamond model – heterogeneity, efficiency, can be better, deriving golden rule
Endogenous growth model. Once countries are in a recession, what can they do to get out?
Learning by doing – why? Because previously we assume that a fraction of the people work in the
knowledge production. IRL it is not exogenous. Vaccine production – knowledge production. It is a
trick, it is a biproduct of capital.
Differences between countries – use what we have learned to understand difference between countries
in terms of growth and GDP per capita. A lot of other factors, culture, temperature.
Human capital – H: education increase H, GDP per capita increase. In poor countries – education is
lower – H is lower – (growth is lower) – GDP per capita lower