Chapter 12 Introduction to Probability A+B Section 12.14 Basic Concepts of Probability eB Section 122 Further Problems of Probability Section 12.3, Expected Value ~ Section 12.1 Introduction to Probability Number of possible Action Possible outcomes outcomes Choose a letter in ji 7 USE" ‘M’, ‘0’, ‘U’, ‘S’, ‘E 5 Toss a coin “@ “© : CITIES | d id the 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11,0. age Throw a dice (die) Choose an “Odd number" Choose an “Even number" 2, 4, 6, 8 10, 12,... | “Pendsonihe range Choose a “Square number” 1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36,.,, | %ePendson the range Choose a “Prime number" 2, 3, 5, 7, 14, 13,.,, | dependsonthe Tange kz °°. ‘aslly by aaing execP(E) = umber of outcomes favourable to the event E t lle pose eusones Probability of an event E ‘The following shows a calendar of April ina year A date is chosen at random Sunday “| "Monday | Tuesday Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday 1 2 3 4 5 s 7 8 9 10 it 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 @ Find the probability thatthe day chosen e IstApal, Find the probability thatthe day chosen ig 10th Apri. Find the probability thatthe day chosen is Sunday, Find the probability thatthe day chosen is Tuesday, Find the probability thatthe day chosen is Wednesday or Thursday, Solution (®) PUst April) = (o) PC ) = © " @ © Eee Mit fornuda ton be meneraan eiely tp dang oonier eee eae eee{eg.2] A fair dice is thrown once. Find the probabilities of getting (a) amumber 2, (&) anumber 2 or 6, (©) a number less than 5, (@)_aneven number, (© a square number, () aprime number, (@) anumber that is not a multiple of 3, (ty anumber 10, (@) aninteger. lution @ PQ) = () P(or6) = (©) P(less than 5) = 0 (@)P(even number) (©) P(square number) = (© P(prime number) = (@ (oot multiple of 3) = (ny P(10) = (g) P(integer) Chapter 12_Introduction to ay sit 7 Favorable outcomes: outcomes: { Favorable outcomes: Favorable outcomes: Favorable + outcomes: Math formula can be memorized easily by doing exersteeSolution Ifa student is random (@) the students so; (0) the students 5 © the students s @ P(scored 1 mark only) (b) P(scored at least 1 mark) (©) P(scored less than 1 mark) [EX] Quick Practice 1 E Dar eer " 'Y Selected, find the probabilities that ‘ored 1 mark only, ‘Cored at least 1 mark, ‘cored less than 1 mark, 40 S+1541446 | mark, 2 marks, 3 marks or 4 marks ‘ ), 32-34) ‘Math formula can Be nomorsed easly by ding eereaeter 12_ Introduction to Probability Relative frequency of event E = number of times that event £ occurs total number of trials Remark rency is close to the probability: © Ifthe number of til is large enough, the relative frequ the results are shown below: feg. 1] A dice is thrown 600 times an saa Outcome 1 2 79 Frequency 88 185 n 90 Estimate the probability of geting the number ah «2h 120 [EX] Quick Practice 125 + EXI2A(17-20, 30, 31) Exercise When a paper cup is tossed on the table, the result can only be one of the following: (opening up). (opening down), ‘The results of tossing the paper cup 200 times are as follows: ch : opening a opening : | ip aoe Sdeway & opening sideway) 2B 160 Frequency [12 Estimate the probability of getting “opening sideway”. Th forse mate ney, eis Nek — oe ee)re Tet H stand fora and T stand fora lethod (Table) Let_H stand for ahead and T stand for a tail. tail, 2nd coin H T | # HH RT ala) ae 7 (a) P(2 heads) = (®) P(1 head only) (©) P(at least 1 head) (4) P(no head) = Math formula can be memorized easily by doing exe EpesennChapter 12_Introduction to Probability a} (eg.2] Tom has 3 shirts (White, yellow and green) and 2 pairs of shorts (blue and black). Ifhe wears a shirt and a pair of shorts at random, find the probabilities that he (a) wears a white shirt and a pair of black shorts, (>) wears a white shirt, (©) wears a pair of blue shorts. Let W stand for white shirt Y stand for yellow shirt, G stand for green shirt, B stand for blue shorts, dK stand for black shorts. { Let W stand for white shirt, Y stand for yellow shirt, G stand for green shirt, B stand for blue shorts, and K stand for black shorts. an shorts () P(white shirt) = © Poblue shorts) a Smee22 Introduction to Probability ae aa 0 ‘Tom has 3 shins (2/are white, 1 is green) and 2 pairs aoa Ihe wears a shin and a pair of shorts at random, find (@) Wears a white shirt anda pair of black shorts, (©) Wears a white shir, (©) wears a pair of blue shorts. ss that he jethod and W2 stand for E Let wi and W, stand for ihe two white shins, 1 the two white aa G stand for green shir, G stand for green sl i B stand for blue shorts, B stand for blue shorts, j And K stand for black shor and_K stand for black shorts shorts shirt Shorts Outcomes (b) P(white shirt) = | (c) P(blue shorts) = Salesian English Schoo! | Math formula can te memorized easily by doing exercise,42_ Introduction to Probability Exercise 1. (TSA.2015.P3.50] Consider a family with 3 children : (@) LetB representa boy and G representa gir. Complete the tree diagram to list out all possible outcomes. First child Second child Third child Possible outcomes | B BBB B a BBG \ | B G B ae 3 Cl awe i seein ==25) = child is a girl in the family. im (&) Find the probability that only one ‘ieee 2, [TSA.2014P1.50)[TSA.2014.P3.49] ‘A letter is randomly chosen from each of the two words ‘BOY’ and ‘TOY’ respectively. (a) Some of the possible outcomes are given in the table. Fill in the remaining ones in the aia blanks. (b) Find the probability that the two letters chosen are the same. Peer ere ‘Math formula ean be nencrized easily 6 ig bY doing exercise,‘Wo-digit mum d. be repeate’ digits can og med bythe digs 3 6, 8 atrandom, Te 2) aime: 36,36, gg OY He ® Some of ing ones in the © Possib . Fill the remaining blanks, “outcomes are given in the table. its digit Units digit oa 3 6 8 [3 | 3B 36 Tens digit 68 UE ets 5. [TSA.2016 1.39) Lk on Math formula ean be memorized easily Wy ano center Smee eeePage Ado Chapter 12_ Introduction to Probability eS Limitation of using “Tree Diagram” ee peprrn Oe eee Further Use of “Tree Diagram” ‘When a fair coin is tossed three times: Firstime Second time ‘Third time [EX (Tree Diagram)] Quick Practice 12.6,12.7 + EXI2B(1-4) [EX (Table)] Quick Practice 12.9 + EXI2B(5-9) [EX (Miscellaneous)] EX12B(10-15) Math formula cin te menoraed casliy ty doing erentpage ASO Za tntroduction to Probability ~ Section 12.3 Expected Value ~ Discussion GiftA: $100 GiftB: $10 Ann is going to take 30 lucky draws. We expect that We expect that she gets . . gift A. she gets.....)...... gift B. a We expect that she We expect that she Math formula tan be vesnorized easily by dang exercieege AST Chapter 12_ Introduction ability OT Definition Expected value For any activity with 1 possible outcomes, expected value = py + Pa to + Poh Where Pj» Pyy om Py are the probabilities for the possible eutcomes to occ andy 4, 4 are the values obtained from the possible outcomes [eg. 1] _ The following shows that probabilities and ‘awards of a lucky draw: Gift A B Probabll 1 2 sbability 3 ; Expenses $100 $10 Find the expected amount that Ann gets in #1nek draw. Solution Expected amount that Ann gets in Tuck drast 1 2, = @ EVs ) gs d+ ¢ 5 ys = 4 [eg.2] Joseph thas his lunch at restaurants A,BorC everyday. penses of going to these restaurants The following table shows his probabilities and ex each time. Restaurant A B c " 3 1 3 Probabili = = ; mY i0 10 5 Expenses $40 $50 $60 Find the expected value of his expense on lunch in a day. Solution Expected value of his expense on lunch in a day = C/8 >+ CXS d+ x8 ) = $3 (EX] Quick Practice 12.11-1213 + EXI2C(I-14) mrt formals can be Momricl Dlg Hypo ee I J I N I IPeter has his breakfast at following restaurants everyday. to these restaurants eLctowing table shows his probabilities and expenses of going each time, Mo Mo. Café de Coral [Fairwood | It ; 3 i 7 7 7 45 $35 S40 s Draw Loss Probability for team A 20% 40% Probability for team B 2% 10% For tasily by deing exereise Math formula can be menered eaily by Georg