Nguyễn Ngọc Tứ

Lecture 6

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Lecture outline

ˆ Point Estimate
ˆ Confidence Intervals
ˆ Confidence Intervals for a Population Mean and Proportion
ˆ One-Sided Confidence Intervals
ˆ The One-Sample t Confidence Interval

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Point estimate
Definition. A point estimate of a parameter θ is a single number that
can be regarded as a sensible value for θ. A point estimate is obtained by
selecting a suitable statistic and computing its value from the given sample
data. The selected statistic is called the point estimator of θ.
Definition. A point estimator θ̂ is said to be an unbiased estimator of θ
if E (θ̂) = θ, for every possible value of θ. If θ̂ is not unbiased, the difference
E (θ̂) − θ is called the bias of θ̂.
Proposition.
1. When X ∼ Bin(n, p), the sample proportion p̂ = X /n is an unbiased
estimator of p.
2. Let X1 , . . . , Xn be a random sample from a distribution with mean µ
and variance σ 2 . Then the estimator X is unbiased for estimating µ
and
(Xi − X )2
P
2 2
σ̂ = S =
n−1
is unbiased for estimating σ . 2
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Confidence Interval
Definition. A 100(1−α)% confidence interval for the mean µ of a normal
population when the value of σ is known is given by
 
σ σ σ
x − zα/2 · √ , x + zα/2 · √ = x ± zα/2 · √
n n n
A confident level γ := 100(1 − α)% ⇒ Φ(zα/2 ) = 1 − α/2 ⇒ zα/2 = · · ·

γ 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
zα/2 1.645 1.695 1.751 1.812 1.881 1.96 2.054 2.170 2.326 2.576

Example 1. Let X ∼ N(µ, σ 2 ). The quantities needed for computation of

the 95% CI for true average preferred height are σ = 2, n = 31, and x = 80.

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Confidence Interval
Definition. A 100(1−α)% confidence interval for the mean µ of a normal
population when the value of σ is known is given by
 
σ σ σ
x − zα/2 · √ , x + zα/2 · √ = x ± zα/2 · √
n n n
A confident level γ := 100(1 − α)% ⇒ Φ(zα/2 ) = 1 − α/2 ⇒ zα/2 = · · ·

γ 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
zα/2 1.645 1.695 1.751 1.812 1.881 1.96 2.054 2.170 2.326 2.576

Example 1. Let X ∼ N(µ, σ 2 ). The quantities needed for computation of

the 95% CI for true average preferred height are σ = 2, n = 31, and x = 80.
With 95% CI, we have α = 0.05 and zα/2 = z0.025 = 1.96. Therefore, the
resulting interval is
σ 2
x ± zα/2 · √ = 80 ± 1.96 √ = 80 ± 0.7 = (79.2959, 80.7041)
n 31
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Confidence Interval - Sample Size
Example 2. Assume that the helium porosity (in percentage) of coal samples
taken from any particular seam is normally distributed with true standard
deviation 0.75.
a. Compute a 95% CI for the true average porosity of a certain seam if the
average porosity for 20 specimens from the seam was 4.85.
b. Compute a 98% CI for true average porosity of another seam based on
16 specimens with a sample average porosity of 4.56.
c. How large a sample size is necessary if the width of the 95% interval is
to be 0.40?  
σ σ
Solution. The sample size necessary for the CI x − zα/2 · √ , x + zα/2 · √
n n
σ  σ 2
to have a width w = 2zα/2 · √ is n = 2zα/2 · .
n w
 2
0.75
Therefore, we have n = 2 · 1.96 = 54.0225. Since n must be
0.4
integer, a sample size of 55 is required.
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Large-Sample Confidence Intervals for a Population
Mean (n > 40)
Let X1 , . . . , Xn be a random sample from a population having a mean µ and
standard deviation σ. Provided that n is large, the Central Limit Theorem
(CLT) implies that X has approximately a normal distribution whatever the
nature of the population distribution. Then

X −µ
Z= √ → N(0, 1)
S/ n
This implies that
 
s s
x − zα/2 · √ , x + zα/2 · √
n n
is a large-sample confidence interval for µ with confidence level approx-
imately 100(1 − α)%. This formula is valid regardless of the shape of the
population distribution.
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Large-Sample Confidence Intervals for a Population
Mean (n > 40)
Example 1. Measuring the diameter X (unit: mm) of a type of machine
manufactured by company M obtains the following table:

X 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
The number of types of machine 37 45 69 83 71 45 32

Calculate a 96% CI for true average diameter of types of machine, knowing

that X has a normal distribution.
Solution. Sample mean: x = . . . . . ., n = . . . . . ., s = . . . . . .
Let µ be true average diameter of types of machine.
With 96% CI: γ = 96% ⇒ zα/2 = . . . . . . . . .
The interval is
s
x ± zα/2 · √ = . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
n

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Calculator fx for statistics
Calculator fx 570 for statistics
1. Shift → Mode → ⇓ 4 → 1. On
2. Mode → 3 : STAT → 1.
X FREQ
87 37
Input data, 89 45 then press AC.
.. ..
. .
99 32
3. Shift → 1 → 4: Var → 1. n
Shift → 1 → 4: Var → 2. x
Shift → 1 → 4: Var → 4. xσn−1 or s.
Calculator fx 580 VNX for statistics
1. Shift → Mode → ⇓ 3 → 1. On
2. Mode → 6 → 1. Input data, then press AC.
3. OPTN → 2 → n, x, sx = s
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Large-Sample Confidence Intervals for a Population
Mean (n > 40)
Example 2. The weight X (kg) of pigs selected randomly on a farm is given
in the following table

X 65-85 85-95 95-105 105-115 115-135

The number of pigs 8 48 66 42 10

Calculate a 90% CI for true average weight of the pig, knowing that X has
a normal distribution.
Example 3. Expenditure X (million/month) of some people randomly se-
lected in region A:
X 3.2-3.7 3.7-4.2 4.2-4.7 4.7-5.2 5.2-5.7 5.7-6.2 6.2-6.7
ni 23 33 55 79 45 29 18

Suppose that X has a normal distribution. Calculate a 98% CI for the pop-
ulation mean of the expenditure.
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Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for a Population
Mean (n ≤ 40)
When X is the mean of a random sample of size n (n ≤ 40) from a normal
distribution with mean µ, the random variable

X −µ
T = √
s/ n

has a t distribution with n − 1 degrees of freedom (df).

Let x and s be the sample mean and sample standard deviation computed
from the results of a random sample from a normal population with mean
µ. Then a 100(1 − α)% confidence interval for µ is
 
s s s
x − tα/2,n−1 · √ , x + tα/2,n−1 · √ = x ± tα/2,n−1 · √ .
n n n

where tα/2,n−1 is called a t critical value.

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Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for a Population
Mean (n ≤ 40)
Example 1. Consider the following sample of fat content (in percentage)
of n = 10 randomly selected hot dogs:
25.2 21.3 22.8 17.0 29.8 21.0 25.5 16.0 20.9 19.5
A 95% CI for the population mean fat content is
s 4.1341
x ± t0.025,9 . √ = 21.90 ± 2.262 × √ = (18.8141, 24.9859)
n 10
Ex 37, p.293. A study of the ability of individuals to walk in a straight
line reported the accompanying date on cadence for a sample of n = 20
randomly selected healthy men.
.95 .85 .92 .95 .93 .86 1.00 .92 .85 .81
.78 .93 .93 1.05 .93 1.06 1.06 .96 .81 .96
Calulate and interpret a 95% confidence interval for population mean ca-
dence.
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Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for a Population
Mean (n ≤ 40)

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A Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion
Let p denote the proportion of “successes” in a population, where success
identifies an individual or object that has a specified property. A random
sample of n individuals is to be selected, and X is the numberpof successes
in the sample. Then X ∼ Bin(n, p) with EX = np and σX = np(1 − p).
If both np ≥ 10 and n(1 − p) ≥ 10, X has approximately a normal distri-
bution.
X
The natural estimator of p is p̂ = . Then
n
!
p̂ − p
P −zα/2 < p < zα/2 ≃ 1 − α
p(1 − p)/n
and a confidence interval for a population proportion p with confidence
level approximately 100(1 − α)% is
r r !
p̂(1 − p̂) p̂(1 − p̂)
p ∈ p̂ − zα/2 , p̂ + zα/2
n n
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A Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion
Example 1.The article “Limited Yield Estimation for Visual Defect Sources”
reported that, in a study of a particular wafer inspection process, 356 dies
were examined by an inspection probe and 201 of these passed the probe.
Assuming a stable process, calculate a 95% confidence interval for the pro-
portion of all dies that pass the probe.
Solution.
Let p be the true proportion of all dies that pass the probe.
201
Sample proportion p̂ = = ......
356
With 95% CI: γ = 95% ⇒ zα/2 = . . . . . . . . .
The interval is
r
p̂(1 − p̂)
p ∈ p̂ ± zα/2 = ..............................
n

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A Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion
Example 2. An April 2009 survey of 2253 American adults conducted by
the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project revealed that
1262 of the respondents had at some point used wireless means for online
access.
a. Calculate and interpret a 95% CI for the proportion of all American adults
who at the time of the survey had used wireless means for online access.
b. What sample size is required if the desired width of the 95% CI is to be
at most 0.04, irrespective of the sample results?

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One-Sided Confidence Intervals (Confidence
Bounds)
The confidence intervals discussed thus far give both a lower confidence
bound and an upper confidence bound for the parameter being estimated.
In some circumstances, an investigator will want only one of these two
types of bounds.

Two Sided CI Upper Lower

ESTIMATION
(One-Sided CI) (One-Sided CI)
σ σ σ
σ known x ± zα/2 · √ x + zα · √ x − zα · √
n n n
s s s
σ unknown, n > 40 x ± zα/2 · √ x + zα · √ x − zα · √
n n n
s s s
σ unknown, n ≤ 40 x ± tα/2,n−1 √ x + tα,n−1 √ x − tα,n−1 √
q n q n q n
p̂(1−p̂) p̂(1−p̂) p̂(1−p̂)
proportion p̂ ± zα/2 n p̂ + zα n p̂ − zα n

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One-sided confidence bound
Some values of zα/2 and zα with γ := 100(1 − α)% CI.

γ 90% 91% 92% 93% 94% 95% 96% 97% 98% 99%
zα/2 1.645 1.695 1.751 1.812 1.881 1.96 2.054 2.170 2.326 2.576
zα 1.282 1.341 1.405 1.476 1.555 1.645 1.751 1.881 2.054 2.326

Example 1. Measuring the diameter X (unit: mm) of a type of machine

manufactured by company M obtains the following table:

X 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
The number of types of machine 37 45 69 83 71 45 32

a. Calculate an 98% upper confidence bound and an 98% lower confidence

bound for the true average diameter of types of machine.
b. Find an upper confidence bound and an lower confidence bound for the
proportion of types of a machine which diameter is greater than 97 mm at
94% the confidence level.
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One-sided confidence bound
Solution. a. Sample mean: x = 92.9319, n = 382, s = 3.4299.
With 98% CI: γ = 98% ⇒ zα =
The upper confidence bound for true average diameter of types of machine
s
x + zα · √ = . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
n
The lower confidence bound for true average diameter of types of machine
s
x − zα · √ = . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
n
b. The proportion of types of a machine which diameter is greater than 97 mm is
32
p̂ = . With 94% CI: γ = 94% ⇒ zα =
382
The upper confidence bound for . . . . . . . . .
r
p̂(1 − p̂)
p̂ + zα = ..............................
n
r
p̂(1 − p̂)
The lower confidence bound for . . . . . . . . . p̂−zα = ....................
n
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