Risk Management Handout
Risk Management Handout
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Risk exists whenever the future is unknown. Because the adverse effects of risk have
plagued mankind since the beginning of time, individuals, groups, and societies have
developed various methods for managing risk. Since no one knows the future exactly,
everyone is a risk manager not by choice, but by sheer necessity.
The word risk is used in many different ways. It can refer to general uncertainty, doubt,
an insured object, or chance of loss.
Williams and Heins define risk as the variation in the outcomes that could occur
over a specified period in a given situation. If only one outcome is possible, the variation
and hence the risk is o. If many outcomes are possible, the risk is not 0. The greater the
variation, the greater the risk.
For the purpose of this course we will define risk as the possibility of an adverse
deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for. If you own a houre, you
hope it will not catch fire. When you make a wager, you hope the outcome will be
favorable. The fact that the outcome in either event may be something other than what
you hope for constitutes a possibility of loss or risk.
Note that the above definition is not subjective. Risk is a state of the external
environment. This possibility of loss must exist, even though the individual exposed to
that possibility may not be aware of it. If the individual believes that there is a possibility
of loss where none is present, there is only imagined risk, and not risk in the sense of the
real world. Finally, there is not requirement that the possibility of loss must be
measurable, only that it must exist.
When risk is said to exist there must always be at least two possible outcomes. If
we know in advance what the outcome will be, there is no risk. For example, investment
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in a capital asset involves a realization that the asset is subject to physical depreciation
and that its value will decline. Here the outcome is certain so there is no risk.
The degree of risk is inversely related to the ability to predict which outcome will
actually occur. If the risk is 0, the future is perfectly predictable. If the risk in a given
situation can be reduced, the future becomes more predictable and more manageable.
In a two - outcome situation for which the probability of one outcome is 1 and the
probability of the second outcome is 0, the risk is 0 because the actual outcome is known.
Uncertainty is the doubt a person has concerning his or her ability to predict which of the
many possible outcomes will occur. Uncertainty is a person's conscious awareness of the
risk in a given situation. It depends upon the person's estimated risk-what that person
believes to be the state of the world-and the confidence he or she has in this belief. A
person may be extremely uncertain about the future in a situation where in reality the risk
is small; on the other hand, this person may have great confidence in his or her ability to
predict the future when in fact the future is highly uncertain. Unlike probability and risk,
uncertainty cannot be measured by any commonly accepted yardstick
Many persons commonly employ the terms "risky," "hazardous," and "perilous"
synonymously. For clarity in thinking, however, the meanings of these words should be
carefully distinguished
A peril is a contingency, which may cause a loss. We speak of the peril of "fire" or
"windstorm," for "hail" or "theft". Each of these is the cause of a loss that may occur.
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A hazard, on the other hand, is that condition which creates or increases the
probability of loss from a peril. For example, one of the perils that can cause loss to an
auto is collision. A condition that makes the occurrence of collisions more likely is an icy
street. The icy street is the hazard and collision is the peril. In winter the probability of
collision is higher owing to the existence of icy streets. In such a situation, the risk of
loss is not necessarily any higher or lower, since we have defined risk as the uncertainty
that underlying probability will work out in practice.
It is possible for something to be both a peril and hazard. For instance sickness is a
peril causing economic loss, but it is also a hazard that increase the chance of loss from
the peril of premature death.
There are three basic types of hazards: physical, moral, and morale.
2. .Moral Hazard. A moral hazard stems from the mental attitude of the
insured. A moral hazard is a condition that increases the chance that some
person will intentionally (1) cause a loss or (2) increase its severity. Some
unscrupulous persons can make, or believe that they can make, a profit by
bringing about a loss. For example, arson, inspired by the possibility of an
insurance recovery, is a major cause of fires. A dishonest person, in the hope of
collecting money from the insurance company, may intentionally cause a loss.
3. Morale Hazard. The moral hazard includes the mental attitude that
characterizes an accident-prone person. A moral hazard is condition that causes
persons to be less careful than they would otherwise be. Some persons do not
consciously seek be bring about a loss, but the fact that they have insurance
causes them to take more chances than they would if they had no insurance. The
purchase of insurance may create a morale hazard, since the realization that the
insurance company will bear the loss may lead the insured to exercise less care
than if forced to bear the loss alone. Morale hazard results from a careless
attitude on the part of insured persons toward the occurrence of losses.
In its broadest context, the term risk includes all situations in which there is an exposure
to adversity. In some cases this adversity involves financial loss, while in others it does
not. There is some element of risk in every aspect of human endeavor and many of these
risks have no (or only incidental) financial consequences. In this course we are concerned
with those risks which involve a financial loss.
Dynamic risks are those resulting from change the economy. They are risks
associated with changes, especially changes, especially changes in human wants and
improvements in machinery and organization. For example, changes in the price level,
consumer tastes, income and output, and technology may cause financial loss to members
of the economy.
Static risks involve those losses, which would occur even if there are no change in
the economy. These are risks connected with losses caused by the irregular action of the
forces of nature or the mistakes and misdeeds of human beings.
Static risks are risks stemming from a level, unchanging society that is in stable
equilibrium. Examples include the uncertainties due to random events such as fire,
windstorm, or death. They would be present in an unchanging economy. If we could hold
consumer taste, output, and income, and the level of technology constant, some
individuals would still suffer financial loss. These losses arise from causes other than the
changes in the economy, such as the perils of nature and the dishonesty of other
individuals.
Dynamic risks normally benefit society over the long-run since they are the result
of adjustments to misallocation of resources. They usually affect a large number of
individuals and are generally considered less predictable, since they occur with no precise
degree of regularity. Static risks, unlike dynamic risks usually result in a loss to society,
affect directly few individuals at most, exhibit more regularity over a specified period of
time and, as a result, are generally predictable.
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1.5.3. Pure Risks Versus Speculative Risks
A distinction has been made between pure risk and speculative risk, which further
clarifies the nature of risk. A pure risk exists when there is a chance of loss but no chance
of gain. For example, the owner of an automobile faces the risk associated with a
potential collision loss. If a collision occurs, the owner will suffer a financial loss. If
there is no collision, the owner's position remains unchanged.
A speculative risk exists when there is a chance of gains as well as a chance f loss.
For instance, expansion of an existing plant involves a chance of loss and chance of gain.
Pure risks are always distasteful, but speculative risks possess some attractive features.
In the above example, i.e., expansion of existing plant, the investment made may be lost
if the product s not accepted by the market at a price sufficient to cover costs but this risk
is born in return for the possibility of profit. Gambling is also a good example of
speculative risk. In a gambling situation risk is deliberately created in the hope of gain.
Pure risks also differ from speculative risks in that they generally are repeatable
under essentially the same condition and thus are more amenable to the law of large
numbers (a basic law of mathematics, which states that as the number of exposure units
increases, the more certain it is that actual loss experience will equal probable loss
experience).
This means that one can more successfully predict the proportion of units that will
be loss if they are exposed to a pure risk than if they are subject to a speculative risk.
One notable exception to this statement is the speculative risks associated with games of
chance, which are highly amenable to this law.
In a situation involving a speculative risk, society may benefit even though the
individual is hurt. For example, the introduction of socially beneficial product may cause
a firm manufacturing the product it replaces to go bankrupt. In a pure-risk situation
society almost always suffers if any individual experiences a loss.
The distinction between pure and speculative risk is an important one, because
normally pure risks are insurable. Insurance is not concerned with the protection of
individuals against those losses arising out of speculative risks. Speculative risk is
voluntarily accepted because of its two dimensional nature, which includes the possibility
of gain and loss.
Both pure and speculative risks commonly exist at the same time. For example,
the ownership of a building exposes the owner to both pure risks (for example, accidental
damage to the property) and speculative risk (for example, rise or fall in property values
caused by general economic conditions).
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Classification of Pure Risks
While it would be impossible to list all the risks confronting an individual or business
organization, we can briefly outline the nature of the various pure risks that we face. For
the most part, these are also static risks. Pure risks that exist for individuals and business
firms can be classified under one of the following:
a) Personal Risks. These consist of the possibility of the loss of income or assets
as a result of loss the ability to earn income. In general earning power is
subject to four basic perils:
1. premature death
2. dependent old age
3. sickness or disability
4. unemployment
b) Property risks. Anyone who owns property faces risks simply because such
possession can be destroyed or stolen. Property risks embrace two distinct
types of loss: direct loss and indirect or consequential loss. Direct loss is the
simplest to understand. If a house is destroyed by fire, the property owner loses
the value of the house. This is a direct loss. However, in addition to losing the
value of the building itself the property owner no longer has a place to live,
and during the time required to rebuild the house, it is likely that the owner
will incur additional expenses living somewhere else. This loss of use of the
destroyed asset is an indirect or consequential loss.
c) Liability Risk. The basic peril in the liability risk is the unintentional injury of
property of others through negligence or carelessness. However, liability may
also result from intentional injuries or damage. Under our legal system, the
laws provide that one who has injured another or damaged another man's
property through negligence or otherwise, can be held responsible for the harm
cause. Liability risks therefore, involve the possibility of loss of present assets
or future income as a result of damages assessed or legal liability arising out of
either intentional or unintentional torts or invasion of the rights of others.
d) Risk arising from failure of others. When another person agrees to perform a
service for you he/she undertakes an obligation which you hope will be met.
When the person's failure to meet this obligation would result in your financial
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loss risk exists. Example of risks in this category include failure of a contractor
to complete a construction project as scheduled or failure of to make payments
as expected.
The distinction between fundamental and particular risks is based on the differences in
origin and consequences of the losses. Fundamental risks involve losses that are
impersonal in origin and consequence. They are group risks caused by economic, social,
and political phenomena, although they may also result from physical occurrences. They
affect large segments or even all of the population. Since these are group risks,
impersonal in origin and effect they are, at least for the individual, unpreventable.
Particular risks involve losses that arise out of individual events and that are felt by
individuals rather than by the entire group. They are risks personal in origin and effect
and more readily controlled. Examples of fundamental risks are those associated with
extraordinary natural disturbances such as drought, earthquake and floods. Examples of
particular risks are the risk of death or disability from non-occupational causes, the risk
of property losses by such perils as fire, explosion, theft, and vandalism, and the risk of
legal liability for personal injury or property damage to others.
Since fundamental risks are caused by conditions more or less beyond the control
of the individuals who suffer the losses and since they are not the fault of anyone in
particular, it is held that society rather than the individual has a responsibility to deal with
them. Although some fundamental risks are dealt with through private insurance (for
example, earthquake insurance is available from private insurers in many countries, and
flood insurance is frequently include in all risk contracts covering movable personal
property) it is an inappropriate tool for dealing with most fundamental risks, and some
form of social insurance or other transfer program may be necessary.
Objective risks, or statistical risk, applicable mainly to groups of objects exposed to loss,
refers to the variation that occurs when actual losses differ from expected losses. It may
be measured statistically by some concept in variation, such as the standard deviation.
Subjective risk on the other hand, refers to the mental state of individual who experiences
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doubt or worry as to the outcome of a given event. It is a psychological uncertainty that
stems from the individual's mental attitude or state of mind.
Subjective risk has been measured by means of different psychological tests, but
no widely accepted or uniform tests of proven reliability have been developed. Thus,
although we recognize different degrees of risk-taking willingness in persons, it is
difficult to measure these attitudes scientifically and 5to predict risk-taking behavior,
such as insurance-buying behavior, from tests of risk-taking attitudes.
It has been aptly stated that "man is the only case in a nature where life becomes aware of
itself." However, man makes numerous choices and decisions on uncertain conditions.
He is not aware of all that threatens him and eventually the ultimate reality and certainty
that is, death. Thus, we live in an uncertain world in which decisions must be make and
risks taken.
When a person gets married, goes into business, decides to attend college, buys a
house or does innumerable other things that affect his life in any important way, he is
naturally some what apprehensive over the outcome. He is uncertain as to how this
particular action will turn out, but he always hopes for the best. He usually considers the
various alternatives and make up his mind only after weighing the advantages and
disadvantages of each course of action. We say that this individual is facing the
uncertainties of the future, that is, the different kinds of risks. Usually he is happier for
making decision that he is almost certain is correct. He likes the soft-heard advice, "be
sure you are right, then go ahead." Conversely, he usually dislikes decisions that he has
to make "in the dark," those with more risks attached.
As a illustration, consider the various uncertainties that enter into the purchase of a
home by taking a loan from a bank to repaid within 20 years. The family breadwinner
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must make the decision whether or not to buy a certain home in the environment of
uncertainties such as:
i) Is the level of my income high enough and certain enough to enable me make the
payments for 20 years?
ii) How can I protect the investment for my family's benefit in case I should die
before the loan is repaid?
iii) Will my health permit me to continue to work for 20 years?
iv) Would it be better to rent rather than to buy and use my funds for other purposes?
if so, what risks characterise the alternative uses of my fund?
v) How can I protect my investment in case of fire, flood, wind-storm, or other peril?
vi) It is possible that may investment will lose value because of a job
transfer and consequent forced sale of property?
vii) In order to have exactly the type of house ji want, should I take the risk of building
a home rather than buying.
If the potential home buyer cannot find satisfactory answers to those and other
questions, he may decide that "the risks are too great" and fail to purchase a home.
Indeed, the subject of risk is of great importance to an "economic man"; risk has an
element of distastefulness (economists would call it disutility) that make him want to
eliminate it. The more completely he can avoid risk, the better. Because people usually
try to avoid all the uncertainties they can, the subject of risk and its wise management has
received important consideration by social scientists for many years. They have tried to
identify what type of risks there are and how to avoid or to handle risk in some
satisfactory manner.
CHAPTER - TWO
9
RISK MANAGEMENT
The environment of modern business, particularly the large industrial unit, is becoming
increasingly complex. This increased complexity creates greater need for special
attention to the risks facing the enterprise. Most large corporations and many smaller
ones employ specialized managers to grapple with the problems of increased risk.
Several factors have contributed to the increased complexity of modern enterprise and
have greatly enlarged the risks faced by business. Among these factors are inflation, the
growth of international operations, more complex technology, and increasing government
regulation.
The increased complexity of modern enterprise called for special task to dealing with
risks facing modern enterprises. The specal task to identify, analyze, and combat
potential operating risks is referred to as risk management. In other words, risk
management s a systematic way of protecting business resources and income against
losses so that the organization's aims are reached without interruption, creating stability
and contributing to profit. It is a scientific approach to the problem of dealing with risks
faced by individuals and business. Because of the pervasiveness of risk and its
significant adverse economic effects, man is constantly searching for ways in which he
can manage risk to his advantage.
In brief, risk management s the science that deals with the techniques of
forecasting future losses so as to plan, organize, direct and control efforts made minimize
(eliminate if possible) the adverse effects of those potential losses. It is the reduction and
prevention of the unfavorable effects of risk at minimum cost through its identification,
measurement and control.
In general, the risk manager deals with pure, not speculative, risk. Hence, risk
management is the identification, measurement, and treatment of pure risk exposures.
At one time business enterprises paid little attention to the problem of handling risk.
Insurance policies were purchased on a haphazard basis, with considerable over lapping
coverage on hand, and wide gaps in coverage of important exposures on the other. Little
control over the cost of losses and insurance premium was exercised. Many risks were
assumed when they should have been insured and vice versa. It was gradually realized
that greater attention to this aspect of business management would yield great dividends.
Instead of having insurance decision handled by a busy executive whose primary
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responsibility lay in another area, management began to assign this responsibility first as
a part-time job to an officer, perhaps the treasurer, and later as a full time position.
As the full scope of responsibility for risk management was realized, an insurance
department was established, with several people employed. At first the department
manager was usually known as the insurance buyer. Later the title was changed to
insurance manager or risk manager.
Many different titles, including insurance buyer, are still used, but the tendency is
to reflect the broader nature of the manager's duties and responsibilities. Assistants to the
insurance manager often include specialists in various branches of insurance, law,
statistics, and personal relations.
1. To recognize exposures to loss, the risk manager must first of all be aware of the
possibility of each type of loss. This is a fundamental duty that must precede all
other functions. Before other functions potential loss exposures must be identified.
2. To estimate the frequency and size of loss; that is, to estimate the probability of
loss from various sources.
3. To decide the best and most economical method of handling the risk
of loss, whether it be by assumption, avoidance, self-insurance, reduction of
hazards, transfer, commercial insurance, or some combination of these methods.
4. To administer the programs of risk management, including the tasks
of constant re-evaluation of the programs, record keeping, and the like.
It is the responsibility of the risk manager to see that the concern's profits are not
lost because of the occurrence of a peril which could have been insured against or
otherwise adequately handled.
The first step in business risk management is to identify the various types of potential
losses confronting the firm; the second step is to measure these potential losses with
respect to such matters as their likelihood of occurrence and their probable severity.
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undiscovered risks. The business will unconsciously retain these risks, and this may not
be the best or even a good thing to do.
In one way or another, the risk manager must dig into the operations of the concern
and discover the risks to which the organization is exposed. To identify all the potential
losses the risk manager should have a look at insurance policy checklists, risk manager
should have a look at insurance policy checklists, risk analysis questionnaires, flow-
charts, analysis of financial statements, and inspections of the organization's operations.
Insurance policy checklists: Insurance policy checklists are available from insurance
companies and from publishers specializing in insurance related publications. Typically,
such lists include a catalogue of the various policies or types of insurance that a given
business might need. The risk manager simply consults such a list, picking out those
policies applicable to the concern. A principal defect of this approach s that it
concentrates on insurable risks only, ignoring the uninsurable pure risks.
Loss exposure checklists are available from various sources, such as insurers,
agencies, and risk management associations. These checklists are possible sources of
loss to the business firm from destruction of physical and intangible assets. Sources of
loss are organized according to whether the loss is predictable or unpredictable,
controllable or uncontrollable, direct or indirect, or from different types of legal liability.
After each items the user can ask the question, "It this a potential source of loss in our
firm?" Use of such a list reduced]s the likelihood of overlooking important sources of
loss.
This questionnaire contains a list of questions designed to remind the risk manager
of possible loss exposures. For example, here are some sample questions:
1. If a building is leased from someone else, does the lease make the firm responsible for
repair or restoration of damage not resulting from its own negligence?
2. Are company-owned vehicles furnished to directors, executives, or employees for
business and personal use? If so, to what extent?
3. Are there any key service facilities or warehouses whose function must continue even
though the structures and equipment may be damaged?
4. Indicate the maximum amount of money, checks, and securities that may be on hand
in any one office during and outside business hours.
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Flow-Charts: A third systematic procedure for identifying the potential losses facing a
particular firm is the flow-chart approach. First, a flow chart or series of flow charts is
constructed, which shows all the operations of the firm, starting with raw materials,
electricity, and other inputs at suppliers' locations and ending with finished products in
the hand of customers. Second, the checklist of potential property, liability, and
personnel losses is applied to each property and operation shown in the flow chart to
determine which losses the firm faces.
The most positive benefit of using flow charts is that they force the risk manager to
become familiar with the technical aspects of the organization's operations, thereby
increasing the likelihood of recognizing special exposures.
On-Site Inspections: On-site inspections are must form the risk manager. By observing
firsthand the firm's facilities and the operations conducted thereon the risk manager can
learn much about the exposures faced by the firm. Just as one picture is worth a thousand
words one inspection tour may be worth a thousand checklists. An examination of
organization's various operation sites and discussions with managers and
workers will often uncover risks that might otherwise have gone undetected.
After the risk manager has identified the various types of potential losses faced by his
firm, these exposures must be measured. Risk measurement is required by the risk
manager for two purposes: I) to determine the relative importance of potential losses and
ii) To obtain information that will help him to decide upon the most desirable
combination of risk management tools.
Dimensions to be Measured
Both loss-frequency and loss-severity data re needed to evaluate the relative importance
of an exposure to potential loss. Contrary to the views of most persons, however, the
importance of an exposure to loss depends mostly upon the potential loss severity, not the
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potential frequency. A potential loss with catastrophic possibilities, although infrequent,
is far more serious than one expected to produce frequent small losses and no large
losses.
On the other hand, loss frequency cannot be ignored. If two exposures are
characterized by the same loss severity, the exposure whose frequency is greater should
be ranked more important. An exposure with a certain potential loss severity may be
ranked above a loss with a slightly higher severity because the frequency of the first loss
is much greater than that of the second. There is no formula for ranking losses in order of
importance, and different persons may develop different rankings. The rational approach,
however, is to place more emphasis on loss severity.
An example may clarify the point. The chance of an automobile collision loss may
be greater than the chance of being sued as a result of the collision, but the potential
severity of the liability loss s so much greater than the damage to the owned automobile
that there should be no hesitation in ranking a liability loss over the property loss.
A particular type of loss may also be subdivided into two or more kinds 9of losses
depending upon whether the loss exceeds a specified dollar amount. For example,
consider the collision loss cited in the preceding paragraph. This loss may be subdivided
into two kinds of losses: I) collision losses of $100 (for some other figure) or less and ii)
losses over $100. Losses in the second category are the more important, although they
are less frequent. Another illustration would be the losses associated with relatively small
medical expenses as contrasted with extremely large bills. Such a breakdown by size of
loss shows clearly the desirability of assigning more weight to loss severity than to loss
frequency.
In determining loss severity the risk manager must be careful to include all the
types of losses that might occur as a result of a given event as well as their ultimate
financial impact upon the firm. Often, while the less important types of losses are
obvious to the risk manager, the more important types are much more difficult to identify.
The potential direct property losses are rather generally appreciated in advance of any
loss, but the potential indirect and net income losses (such as the interruption of business
while the property is being repaired) they may result from the same event are commonly
ignored until the loss occurs.
The ultimate financial impact of the loss is even more likely to ignored in
evaluating the dollar value of any loss. Relatively small losses, if retained, cause only
minor problems because the firm can meet these losses fairly easily out of liquid assets.
Somewhat larger losses may cause liquidity problems which in turn may make it more
difficult or more costly for the firm to borrow funds required for various purposes.
Finally, very large losses may have serious adverse affects upon the firm's financial
planning, and their dollar impact may be much greater than it would be for a firm that
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could more easily absorb these losses. Ultimately the loss could be the ruin of the
business as a going concern.
To illustrate, a fire could destroy a building and its contents valued at $300,000; the
ensuing shutdown of the firm for six months might cause another $360,000 loss. This
$660,000 loss of the difference between the going-concern value of the business, say
$2,400,000, and the value for which the remaining assets could be sold, say $1,500,000,
causing a $900,000 loss.
Loss-frequency and loss-severity data do more than identify the important losses.
They are also extremely useful in determining the best way or ways to handle an
exposure to loss. For example, the average loss frequency times the average loss severity
equals the total dollar losses expected in an average year. These average losses can be
compared with the premium the firm would have to pay an insurer for complete or partial
protection.
The law of large numbers, a basic law of mathematics, states that as the number of
exposure units increases, the more certain it is that actual loss experience will equal
probable loss experience. Hence, the risk diminishes as the number of exposure units
increases.
The law of large numbers constitutions a fundamental theoretical basis for risk
management function. As large bodies of appropriate statistics on losses are gathered and
analyzed, the risk manager may predict loss experience with considerable accuracy.
Therefore, in the case of empirical probabilities, the requirement of large number has dual
application.
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ii) Once the estimate of the probability has been made, it must be applied to a
sufficiently large number of exposure units to permit the underlying to work itself
out.
In this sense, to the risk manager, the law of large numbers means that the larger
the number of cases examined in the sampling process, the better the chance of making a
good estimate of the probability, the larger the number of exposure units to which the
estimate is applied, the better the chance that actual experience will approximate a good
estimate of the probability.
For our purposes, probability may be defined as the chance or likelihood that an event
will occur. Probability measurements are stated as fractions between 0 and 1. The
smallest value that a probability statement can have is 0 (including the event is
impossible) and the largest value it can have is 1 (including the event is certain to occur).
0
Thus, in general: 0<p (A)<1, where the symbol P is used to designate the
probability of an event and P(A) denotes the probability that event A will occur in a
single observation or experiment.
Probability Categories
2. A relative frequency (or empirical) probability is one that is determined after the
fact from observation and experimentation. No prior assumption of equal
likelihood is involved. For example, before including coverage for certain types of
dental problems in health insurance policies for employed adults, an insurance
company wished to determine the probability of occurrence of such problems, so
that the insurance rate can be set accordingly. Therefore, the statistician collects
data for 10,000 adults in the appropriate age categories and finds that 100 people
have experienced the particular dental problem during the past year. The
probability of occurrence is thus P(A) = 100 = 0.01 or 1%
10,000
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When we do not know the underlying probability of an event and cannot
deduce it from the nature of the even, we can estimate it on the basis of past
experience. Suppose that we are told the probability that 21-year-old male will die
before reaching age 22 is 0.00183. What does this mean? It means that someone
has examined mortality statistics and discovered that, in the past, 183 men out of
every 100,000 alive at age 21 have died before reaching age 22. It also means that,
barring changes in the cases of these deaths we can expect approximately the same
proportion of 21-year-old to die in the future.
Two or more events are mutually exclusive, or disjoint, if they cannot occur together.
That is the occurrence of one event automatically precludes the occurrence of the other
event (or event). For instance, suppose we consider the two possible events "ace" and
"king" in respect to a card being drawn form a deck of playing cards. These two events
are mutually exclusive, because any given card cannot be both an ace and a king.
Tow or more events are nonexclusive, or joint when it is possible for them to occur
together. Note that this definition does not indicate that such events must necessarily
always occur together. For instance, suppose we consider the two possible events "ace"
and "spade." These events are not mutually exclusive, because a given card can be both
an ace and a spade; however, it does not follow that every ace is a spade or every spade is
an ace.
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one event prevents the
occurrence of the other event. For example, when you flip a coin a single time, if you get
a head it is obviously impossible to get a tail, and vice versa. Therefore, these two
possible outcomes of a single trial are mutually exclusive
When two events are mutually exclusive, the probability that one or the other of
the two events will occur is the sum of their separate probabilities. The rule of addition
for mutually exclusive events is
P (A or B ) = P ( AUB) = P (A) + P (B)
When drawing a card from a deck of playing cards, the events "ace" (A) and "king"
(K) are mutually exclusive. The probability of drawing either an ace or a king in a single
draw is
If you roll a single die, the probability of getting either a 1 aor a w is computed as
follows.
P (1 or 2 ) = P (1) + P (2)
= 1 + 1 .
= 6 6
= 2 or 1 .
6 3
Now let's suppose that jane is shopping for new tires. The probability is 0.25, o.30, 0.20,
0.15 or o.10 that she will buy Michelin Goodyear, General, Firestone, or Continental
tires. What is the probability that she will buy either General or Continental tires?
18
Addition Rule When Events are not Mutual Exclusive
If two events are not mutually exclusive, it is possible for both events to occur. For
events that are not mutually exclusive, the probability of the joint occurrence of the two
events is subtracted from the sum. We can represent the probability of joint occurrence
by P(A and B). in the language of set theory this is called the intersection of A and B and
the probabiliy is designated by P(A n B). thus, the rule of addition for events that are not
mutually exclusive is
For example when drawing a card from a deck of playing cards, the events "ace"
and "spade" are not mutually exclusive. The probability of drawing an ace (A) or spade
(S) (or both) in a single draw is
If the probabilities are 0.37, 0.30, and 0.20 that a Gardner will buy a lawn mover,
edger, or lawn mover and edger on April 1, then the probability that the gradner will buy
a mover or ldger on that day is:
Two events are independent when the occurrence or no occurrence of one event has no
effect on the probability of occurrence of other event. Two events are dependent when
the occurrence r nonoccurrence of one event does affect the probability of occurrence of
the other event.
The outcomes associated with tossing a fair coin twice in succession are
considered to independent events, because the outcome of the first toss has no effect on
the respective probabilities of a head or tail occurring on the second toss. The drawing of
two cards without replacement from a deck of playing cards are dependent events,
because the probabilities associated with the second draw are dependent on the outcome
of the first draw. Specifically, if an "ace" occurred on the first draw, then the probability
19
of an "ace" occurring on the second draw is the ratio of the number of aces still
remaining in the deck to the total number of cards remaining in the deck, or 3 .
15
The rules of multiplication are concerned with determining the probability of the joint
occurrence of A and B. This is the intersection of A and B; the probability is designated
by P(A n B).
Assume that you have one red die and one green die and you wish to know the
probability throwing a 2 with this pair of dice. This means, of course, throwing a 1 on
the red die and a 1 on the green die. The probability of throwing a 1 on the red die is 1/6
and will be 1/6 regardless of the result obtained by tossing the green die. Since the
probabilities of getting a 1 on the green die or a 1 on the red die are not affected by the
result on the other die these events are said to be independent.
If two events are independent, the probability that they will both occur is the
product of their separate probabilities. This may be stated as:
Let's again consider out previous example of the bowl containing six red and four
wihte poker chips. A chips is drawn, and then a second chip is drawn and the first chp is
not replaced. (we are thus sampling without replacement.) the probability that the
second chip is red or the probability that it is white depends on the result of the first draw.
The probability that a sample of two drawn in this fashion results in two red chips is:
P(two red) x P(red on first draw) x P(red on second draw/red on first draw)
=6 x 5
10 9
30 or 1
90 3
Suppose that set of `10 spare parts is known to contain eight good parts (G) and
two defective parts (D). Given that two parts are selected are both goos is:
= 56 or 28
90 45
The probability distribution of total birr losses per year shows each of the total birr losses
that the business may experience in the coming year and the probability that each of these
losses might occur. For example, assume that a business has a fleet of eight cars each of
which is valued at 10,000 birr and is subject to both partial and total physical damage
losses. A hypothetical probability distribution that might apply in this
21
Birr losses
Per year Probability
Table - 1 0 0.400
500 0.300
1,000 0.200
5,000 0.080
10,000 0.010
20,000 0.006
40,000 0.003
80,000 0.001
Each of the birr losses per year could be produced by many combinations of the
number of accidents per year and the average birr losses per accident. For example, the
500 birr loss could result from one accident involving a 500 birr loss or two accidents
involving an average loss of 250 birr each, or in many other ways. The 10,000 birr loss
could result from one car being totally destroyed, or two cars suffering an average loss of
5,000 each, or some other combination of accidents and average loss.
Useful Measurements
From probability distributions of total birr losses per year (refer to Table - 1) one can
obtain useful information concerning:
i) The probability that his business will incur some loss.
ii) The probability that "severe" losses will occur, and
iii) The risk or variation in the possible results. These measurements will be
illustrated using the probability distribution in Table - 1.
Give this distribution, the probability that the business will suffer no birr loss is 0.40.
because the business must suffer either no loss or some loss, the sum of the probabilities
of no loss and of some loss must equal 1.0. Consequently, the probability of some loss is
equal to 1 - 0. 40, or 0.60. An alternative way to determine the probability of some loss is
to sum the probabilities for each of the possible birr losses; i.e. 0.300 + 0.200 + 0.080 +
0.010 + 0.006 + 0.003 + 0.001, or 0.60.
The potential severity of the total birr loss can be measured by stating the
probability that the total losses will exceed various values. For example, the risk manager
may be interested in the probability that the birrr losses will equal or exceed 10,000 birr.
He can calculate these probabilities for each of the values in which he is interested and
for all higher values. For example, the probability that the birr losses will exceed 10,000
birr is equal to 0.006 + 0.003 + 0.001, or 0.01. The given table shows the probability that
the birr losses will equal or exceed each of the values in the table.
22
Two possible uses of this table would be to determine:
i) The probability that the birr loss would exceed the insurance premium that might
be required to purchase complete financial protection against this risk and,
ii) The probability that the birr losses, if retained, could cause serious financial
problems.
Another extremely useful measure that reflects both loss frequency and loss
severity is the expected total birr loss or the average annual birr loss in the long run.
Because the probabilities in the table given represent the proportion of times each birr
loss is expected to occur in the long run, the expected loss can be obtained by summing
the products formed by multiplying each possible outcome by the probability of its
occurrence; i.e. $0(0.400) + $500 (0.300) + $1000(0.200) + $5000 (0.080) +
$10,000(0.010) + $20,000 (0.006) + $40,000 (0.003) + $80,000 (0.001) or $1,170. This
measure is useful because it indicates to the business the average annual loss it will
sustain if it retains the risk.
If an insurer uses the same probability distribution, he will have to collect this
much is annual premium just to pay its losses. The actual premium, however, must be
higher to cover in addition the insurer's expenses and provide some allowamce for profit
and contingencies. The risk manager must decide whether he is willing to pay this
additional amount in order, among other things, to rid himself of the uncertainty.
Two probability distributions may have the same expected loss but may differ
greatly with respect to risk or the variation in the possible results. For example, an
expected value of $1,170 may be produced by the distribution in Table - 1 or by a $1,170
loss every year. Considerable risk is present in the first instance, but there is no risk when
one knows what will happen each year. The greater the variation in the possible results,
the greater the risk. If the risk is small, the annual losses are fairly predictable, and the
business may be well advised to treat these losses as an operating expense. If the risk is
large and some of the unpredictable losses could be serious, it may be wise to shift
potential losses to someone else.
Up to this point, no yardstick has been suggested for measuring risk, but its
relationship to the variation in the probability distribution has been noted. Statisticians
measure this variation in several ways. One of the most popular yardsticks for measuring
the dispersion around the expected value is the standard deviation. Standard deviation is a
number which measures how close a group of individual measurements are to their
average value.
When there is much doubt about what will happen because there are many
outcomes with some reasonable chance of occurrence, the standard deviation will be
large; when there is little doubt about what will happen because one of a few possible
23
outcomes is almost certain to occur, the standard deviation will be small. Another very
simple measure of dispersion is the range. Range is the variation from the smallest
number to the largest number. For example, if a certain business faces a number of losses
in fire consecutive years such as (7, 11, 10, 9, 13) the number of losses varied from 7 to
13. Similarly, if in other five years the losses were (16, 4, 10, 12, 8) the number of losses
varied from 4 to 16.
These observations suggest that the standard deviation and the range of probability
distribution could serve as a measure of the risk associated with that distribution.
However, statisticians have also suggested that for many purposes the coefficient of
variation is a better measure of dispersion.
Researchers have been much more successful in their studies of the probability
distribution of the number of accidents per year, although much remains to be done in
this area. If each accident produces the same birr loss, the distribution of the number of
accidents per year can be transformed into a distribution of the total birr losses per year
by multiplying each possible number of accidents by the uniform loss per accident;
example, 1(1,000birr,) 2 (1,000 birr,) 3 (1,000 birr,) etc. If the birr loss per accident varies
within a small range, the distribution of the total birr losses per year can be approximated
by multiplying each possible number of accidents by the average birr losses per accident.
If the birr losses per accident vary widely, one needs the probability distribution of the
birr losses per accident and the number of accidents per year to develop information
concerning the losses per accident is lacking, the risk manager will improve his
understanding of the risk situation if he knows the probability distribution of the number
of accidents per year.
24
The Poisson Distribution
One theoretical probability distributing that has proved particularly useful in estimating
the probability that a business will suffer a specified number of occurrences during the
next year is the Poisson distribution. This probability distribution is useful in insurance
situations. For example, auto accidents, fires, and other losses tend to fall in a manner
approximately according to the Poisson distribution.
According to this distribution, the probability that there will be accidents is
m r e -m
P =
r!
The mean (m) of a Poisson distribution is also its variance. Consequently, it standard
deviation ____ is equal to the Vm.
Mr. Marshal has 10 trucks to insure and on the average a total of 1 loss occurs each year
(p = 0.1). What is the probability of more than 2 accidents in a year? Or stated another
way, what is the probability of 3 or more accidents?
To calculate m, multiply the frequency of loss times n. Thus , (0.1) x10 = 1.0, m =
1.
Number of Exposure Units Required to Predict the Future with a Specified Degree
of Accuracy
A question of considerable interest, both to the commercial insurer and the would-be self-
insurer, is how large an exposure (that is, what number of individual exposure units) is
necessary before a given degree of accuracy can be achieved in obtaining an actual loss
frequency that is sufficiently close to the expected loss frequency. As the number of
exposure units becomes infinitely large, the actual loss frequency will approach the
expected true loss frequency. But it is never possible for a single insurer, whether a
commercial insurer or a self insurer, to group together an infinitely large number of
exposure units.
N = S2 P(1-P)
E2
Where : N = the number of exposure units sufficient for a given degree of
Accuracy
26
S = the number of standard deviations of the distribution. The number of value
of S tells us what level f confidence we can state our results. Thus if S is 1, we know
with 68% confidence hat loses will be as predicted by the formula; if S is 2, we have 95%
confidence, etc.
N = S2 P(1 - P)
E2
N = 22 (0.30) (0.70)
(0.02)2
The formula produces a very large number of exposure units required for the
degree of risk acceptable. Mathematical formulas such as the ones used in these
examples can assist the insurer considerably in making estimates of the degree of risk
assumed with given numbers in an exposure group.
27
The following table simplifies the use of Poisson formula. This table gives the value of e -m that corresponds to selected values of m.
Figure -1 values of e-m
m e-m m e-m m e-m m e-m
28
CHAPTER THREE
Once the risk manager has identified and measured the risks facing the firm,
he must decide how to handle them.
Risk can be controlled (handled) through the following tools:
1. Avoidance
2. Loss Retention (Assumption)
3. Reduction/Prevention
4. Separation/Diversification
5. Combination /Pooling
6. Neutralization
7. Transfer
3.1. Avoidance
29
Characteristics of avoidance should be noted:
1. Avoidance may be impossible. For example, the only way to avoid all
liability exposures is to cease to exist.
3. Avoiding a risk may create another risk. For example, a firm may avoid
the risks associated with air shipments by substituting train and truck
shipments. In the process, however, it has created some new risks.
Unplanned risk retention exists when a person does not recognize that
a risk exists and unknowingly believes that no loss could occur. Such a
method does not deserve to be called a risk management device. It stems
from ignorance of risk.
30
Self-insurance is a special case of active retention. It is distinguished
from the other type of retention usually referred to as non-insurance in that
the firm or family can predict fairly accurately the losses it will suffer during
some period because it has a large number of widely scattered and fairly
homogeneous exposure units. Self-insurance is not insurance, because there
is no transfer of the risk to an outsider. Self-insurer and insurer, however,
share the ability, though in different degrees, to predict their future loss
experience.
ii) The maximum possible loss is so small that the firm can safely absorb
it as a current operating or out of small reserve funds.
iii) The chance of loss is extremely low that it can be ignored or is so high
that to transfer it would cost almost as much as the worst loss that
could occur. In some areas the chance of a flood loss is so small that
this peril can be safely ignored. The chance that a man, aged 97, will
die within a year is so high that an insurer would demand a premium
close to the amount it would pay upon his death.
iv) The firm controls so many independent, fairly homogeneous exposure
units that it can predict fairly well what its loss experience will be; in
other words, a retention program for this firm could properly be called
"self-insurance." In this instance one of the principal reasons for
transferring the risk to someone else does not exist.
31
3.3. Reduction
Loss reduction are measures taken to lower loss after the event occurs.
Automatic sprinklers, for example, are designed to minimize a fire loss by
spraying water or some other substance upon a fire soon after it starts in
order to confine the damage to a limited area.
32
g) Working with company engineers and architects in planning new
construction to provide for maximum safety and to secure important
insurance premium credits when the structure is completed an in use.
3.4. Separation/Diversification
Another risk control tool is separation of the firms' exposures to loss instead
of concentrating them at one location where they might all be involved in the
same loss. For example, instead of placing its entire inventory in one
warehouse a firm may elect to separate this exposure by placing equal parts
of the inventory in ten widely separated warehouses. If fire destroys one
warehouse, the firm will have others from which to draw needed supplies.
Another example is to disperse work operations in such a way that explosion
or other catastrophe would not injure more than a limited number of persons.
3.5. Combination
33
One way a firm can combine risks is to expand through internal
growth. For example, a taxicab company may increase its fleet of
automobiles. Combination also occurs when two firms merge or one
acquires another. The new firm has more buildings, more automobiles, and
more employees than either of the original companies.
3.6. Neutralization
3.7. Transfer
Risk may be transferred from one individual to another who is more willing
to bear the risk. Transfer of risk may be accomplished in three ways.
34
that sells one of its buildings transfers the risks associated with ownership of
the building to the new owner. A contractor who is concerned about possible
increases in the cost of labor and materials needed for the electrical work on
a job to which he is already committed can transfer the risk by hiring a
subcontractor for this portion of the project. This type of transfer, which is
closely related to avoidance through abandonment, eliminates potential loss
that may strike the firm. It differs from avoidance through abandonment in
that to transfer a risk the firm must pass it to someone else.
Second, the risk, but not the property or activity may be transferred.
For example, under a lease, the tenant may be able to shift to the landlord
any responsibility the tenant may have for damage to the landlord's premises
caused by the tenant's negligence.
A person who leases or rents property rather than owns it shifts to the
lessor the ownership risk. The cost of shifting the risk is contained in the
rental payments, which must be high enough to compensate the lessor for
the risks as well as the costs of owning the property.
35
It is easy to confuse the transfer method of handling risk with the
combination method. The essential difference between the two lies in the
fact that in the transfer method, the risk is not necessarily reduced or
eliminated; where as in the combination method, the risk is actually greatly
reduced or perhaps completely. For Example, A furniture retailer may not
wish to stock large quantities of furniture for fear that prices may fall before
the stock can be sold, or that the stock will be unsalable due to style
changes. The retailer therefore buys only limited quantities of goods at a
time, thus forcing, a wholesaler to carry sufficient inventories to meet
demand. The wholesaler in this case is the bearer of risk of loss due to price
changes.
36
After the risk manager has determined the best combination of
coverages and policy limits, he/she divides (classifies) the insurance
contracts (policies) in this combination into three groups:
3. Available Contracts
Available policies include all the types of protection that have not been
included in the first two classes. These contracts protect against types of
losses that would inconvenience the firm but would not seriously impair its
operations unless several of them occurred within one year. It is also called
plate – glass policy. For Example, insurance against breakage of glass due to
riots, fighting, etc. Hence, When a risk manager is to decide upon the
insurance policies, he should give priority to the compulsory ones and then
to the other polices according to their importance.
37
After the initial listing has been completed, the risk manager then reviews
the contracts in each group to determine which of these losses might be more
satisfactorily handled in other ways.
For example, contracts that might be dropped form the essential – category
would include contracts covering:
1. Losses that can be transferred to someone other than an insurer at a
smaller cost than the insurance premium.
Some contracts included in the essential class but can be transferred to
another body at a smaller cost than the insurance premium be dropped
by the risk manager from insuring in the insurer.
2. Losses that can be prevented or reduced to such an extent that they are
no longer severe.
3. Losses that happen so frequently that they are fairly predictable, thus
making self – insurance on attractive alternative because of expense
savings. Few, if any, contracts (policies) will be dropped from the
essential – category. Contracts covering potential catastrophic losses
will be purchased unless they satisfy one of the three conditions
But these techniques are likely to be more widely applied in the future and it
is important to consider these quantitative methods in selecting the "proper"
tools of risk management. Therefore this section discusses some quantitative
approaches that may be used in selecting risk management tools.
38
PART – II INSURANCE
CHAPTER FOUR
As stated earlier there are a number of ways of dealing with risk. Insurance
is one of the basic tools of risk management and it is also the most important
illustration of the transfer technique and the keystone of most risk
management programs.
If the house is a total loss each of the 1,000 owners will pay birr 10
and the owner of the destroyed house will be indemnified for the birr 10,000
loss. Those who suffer losses are indemnified by those who do not. Most
who escape loss are willing to pay those who do not because by doing so
they help to eliminate the possibility that they themselves might suffer a
10,000 birr loss. Through the agreement to share the losses, the economic
burden these impose is spread throughout the group. This is essentially the
39
way insurance works, for what we have described is a pure assessment of
mutual insurance operation.
There are some potential difficulties with the operation of such a plan,
the most obvious being the possibility that some members of the group
might refuse to pay their assessment at the time of a loss. This problem can
be overcome by requiring payment in advance. To require payment in
advance for the loss that may take place, it will be necessary to have some
idea as to the amount of those losses. This may be calculated on the basis of
past experience.
Let us now assume that on the basis of past experience we are able to
predict with reasonable accuracy that two of the 1,000 houses will burn. We
could charge each member of the group birr 20, making a total of birr 20,
000. In addition to the cost of the losses, there would no doubt be some
expenses in the operation of the program. Also there is a possibility that our
predictions might not be entirely accurate. We might therefore, charge each
member of the group birr 40 instead of birr 20, thereby providing for the
payment of expenses and also providing a cushion against deviations from
our expectations.
Each of the 1,000 house owners will incur a small cost of birr 40 in
exchange for a promise of indemnification of the amount of birr 10,000 if
his house burns down. This birr 40 premium is in effect the individual’s
share of the total losses and expenses of the group.
Insurance Defined
40
eliminates the uncertainty regarding a financial loss in the event that the
house should burn down.
Insurance does not prevent losses, nor does it reduce the cost of losses
to the economy as a whole. As a matter of fact, it may very well have the
opposite effect of causing losses and increasing the cost of losses for the
economy as a whole. The existence of insurance encourages some losses for
the purpose of defrauding the insurer, and in addition people are less careful
and may exert less effort to prevent losses then they might if it were not for
the existence of insurance contracts. Also, the economy incurs certain
additional costs in the operation of the insurance mechanism. Not only must
41
the cost of the losses be borne, but the expense of distributing the losses on
some equitable basis adds to this cost.
Unfortunately, not all risks are insurable. For practical reasons, insurers are
not willing to accept all the risks that others may wish to transfer to them. To
be considered a proper subject for insurance, there are certain characteristics
that should be present.
2. The loss produced by the risk must be definite and measurable. The
loss must have financial measurement. In other words, we must be
able to tell when a loss has taken place, and we must be able to set
some value to it. Before the burden of risk can be safely assumed, the
42
insurer must set up procedures to determine if loss has actually
occurred and, if so, its size.
3. The loss must be fortuitous or accidental. The loss must be the result
of a contingency, that is, it must be something that may or may not
happen. It must not be something that is certain to happen. If the
insurance company knows that an event in the future is inevitable, it
also knows that it must collect a premium equal to the certain loss that
it must pay, plus an additional amount for the expenses of
administering the operation. Wear and tear or depreciation which is a
certainty should not be insured. The law of large numbers is useful in
making predictions only if we can reasonably assume that future
occurrences will approximate past experience. Since we assume that
past experience was a result of chance happenings, the predictions
concerning the future will be valid only if future happenings are also a
result of chance.
4. The loss must not be catastrophic. All or most of the objects in the
group should not suffer loss at the same time. The insurance principle
is based on a notion of sharing losses, and inherent in this idea is the
assumption that only a small percentages of the group will suffer loss
at any one time. Damage which results from war would be
catastrophic in nature. Simultaneous disaster to insured objects can be
illustrated by reference to large fires, floods, and hurricanes that have
swept major geographical areas in the past. If an insurer is unlucky
enough to have on its books a great deal of property situated in such
an area, it obviously suffers a loss that was not contemplated when the
rates were formulated. Most insurers reduce this possibility by ample
dispersion of insured objects.
43
6. Reasonable cost of Transfer. One of the insured’s requirements is not
to insure against a highly probable loss, because the cost of transfer
tends to be excessive. To be insurable the chance of loss must be
small. The more probable the loss, the more certain it is to occur. The
more certain it is, the greater the premium will be. A time is ultimately
reached when the loss becomes so certain that either the insurer
withdraws the protection or the cost of the premium becomes
prohibitive.
Benefits
44
accumulating funds to meet possible losses. One of the great
advantages of the insurance mechanism is that it greatly reduces the
total of such reserves necessary for a given economy. Since the insurer
can predict losses in advance, it needs to keep readily available only
enough funds to meet those losses and to cover expenses. If each
individual has to set aside such funds, there would be a need for a far
greater amount because the individual, not knowing precisely how
much would be required, would tend to be conservative.
45
would otherwise reject as too risky. Thus, society benefits by
increased services and new products, the hallmarks of increased living
standards.
By charging extra for bad features and less for good, insurers
can induce the insured to make improvements, which have beneficial
effect on losses. This can clearly be seen, for example, in fire
insurance, where the installation of good-fighting equipment, such as
a sprinkler system, receives considerable reward by way of reduced
premiums.
46
of the risks that, if they resulted in loss, would destroy most small
businesses. Without insurance, small business would involve more
risks and would be a less attractive outlet for funds and energies.
Costs of Insurance
47
iv) Granting larger awards in liability cases merely because the
defendant is insured. Some of these abuses are fraudulent;
others indicate a different (and indefensible) code of ethics
where insurance is involved.
As part of the study of the insurance mechanism and the way in which it
works, it will be helpful to examine some of the unique facets of insurance
company operations. In general, insurers operate in much the same manner
as other firms, however, the nature of the insurance transaction requires
certain specialized functions which require a suitable organization structure.
In this section, we will examine some of the specialized activities of
insurance companies and the general forms of organization structure.
Functions of Insurers
48
ii) Underwriting (selection of risks)
iii) Rate making
iv) Managing claims
v) Investment
Production
The term is a proper one for insurance because the act of selling is
production in its true sense. Insurance is an intangible item and does not
exist until a policy is sold.
Underwriting
49
with the expected ones. While attempting to avoid adverse selection through
rejection of undesirable risks, the underwriter must secure an adequate
volume of exposures in each class. In addition, he must guard against
congestion or concentration of exposures that might result in a catastrophe.
Process of Underwriting
The underwriter must obtain as much information about the subject of the
insurance as possible within the limitations imposed by time and the cost of
obtaining additional data. The desk underwriter must rule on the exposure
submitted by the agents, accepting some and rejecting others that do not
meet the company’s underwriting requirements or policies. When a risk is
rejected, it is because the underwriter feels that the hazards connected with it
are excessive in relation to the rate.
50
matters. This inspection report may deal with a wide range of personal
characteristics of the applicant, including financial status, occupation,
character, and the extent to which he uses alcoholic beverages (or to which
neighbors say he uses them.) All the information is pertinent in the decision
to accept or reject the application.
Rate Making
An insurance rate is the price per unit of insurance. Like any other price, it is
a function of the cost of production. However, in insurance, unlike other
industries the cost of production is not known when the contract is sold, and
will not be known until some time in the future, when the policy has expired.
One of the fundamental differences between insurance pricing and the
pricing function in other industries is that the price for insurance must be
based on a prediction. The process of predicting future losses and future
51
expenses, and allocating these costs among the various classes of insureds is
called rate making.
A “rate” is the price charged for each unit of protection or exposure and
should be distinguished from a “premium”, which is determined by
multiplying the rate by the number of units of protection purchased. The unit
of protection to which a rate applies differs for the various lines of
insurance. In life insurance, for example, rates are computed for each 1,000
birr in protection; in fire insurance the rate applies to each 100 birr coverage.
The insurance rate is the amount charged per unit of exposure. The
premium is the product of the insurance rate and the number of units of
exposure. Thus, in life insurance, if the rate is 25 birr per 1,000 birr of face
amount of insurance, the premium for a 10,000 birr policy is 250 birr.
The premium is designed to cover two major costs:
i) The expected loss and
ii) The cost of doing business.
These are known as the pure premium and the loading, respectively.
The pure premium is determined by dividing the total expected loss by the
number of exposures. In automobile insurance, for example, if an insurer
expects to pay 100,000 birr of collision loss claims in a given territory, and
there are 1,000 autos in the insured group, the pure premium for collision
will be 100 birr per car, computed as follows.
52
Expected Loss birr 100,000
Pure premium = = = birr 100
Exposure units 1,000
In the above example, where the pure premium was birr 100 per car,
the gross premium would be calculated as
birr 100
= birr 150
1 - 0.333
Two basic approaches to rate making, class and individual rating are
discussed below.
Manual or Class Rating. The manual or class rating method sets rates that
apply uniformly to each exposure unit falling within some predetermined
class or group. Everyone falling within a given class is charged the same
rate. For example a class rate might apply to all types of dwelling of a given
kind of construction in a specific city. Rates which apply to all individuals of
a given age and sex are also examples of class rates.
The major areas of insurance that emphasize use of the manual rate
making method include life, automobile, residential fire, etc. For example, in
life insurance the central classifications are by age and sex. In automobile
insurance the loss data are broken down territorially by type of automobile,
by age of driver, and by major use of automobile. In each case it is necessary
only to find the appropriate page in a manual to find out what the insurance
rate is to be, hence, the term “manual rate making.”
53
The obvious advantage of the class rating system is that it permits the
insurer to apply a single rate to a large number of insureds, simplifying the
process of determining their premiums. Class rating is the most common
approach in use by the insurance industry today, and is used in various lines
of insurance.
Notice. The first step in the claim process is the notice by the insured to the
company that a loss has occurred. The requirement differ from one policy to
another, but in most cases the contract requires that the notice be given
“immediately” or “as soon as practicable.” The policy usually requires that
the notice be given in writing. Actually, however, oral notice to the insurer is
usually sufficient unless the insurer or its agent objects.
54
The insured may also be expected to notify someone other than the
insurer. Under a theft insurance, for example, the insured must tell the
police, as well as the insurer, about the loss.
Proof of Loss. Within a specific time after giving notice, the insured is
required to file a proof of loss. This is a sworn statement that the loss has
taken place, and states the amount of the claim and the circumstance
surrounding the loss. The adjuster normally assists the insured in the
preparation of this document.
Payment or Denial. If all goes well the insurance company draws a draft
reimbursing the insured for the loss. If not, it denies the claim. The claim
may be disallowed because there was no loss, the policy did not cover the
loss, or because the adjuster feels that the amount of the claim is
unreasonable.
Investment Function
55
Organization of Insurers
56
CHAPTER FIVE
57
life. In practice, the sum insured is restricted by the insured’s ability to
pay premium.
ii) Husband and Wife. A wife may insure the life of her husband because
his continued existence is valuable to her and she would suffer a
financial loss upon his death. Likewise, a husband may insure the life
of his wife because her continued existence is valuable to him and he
could suffer a financial loss upon her death.
iii) Creditors and Debtors. A creditor stands to loss if his debtor dies
without paying the debt. Thus, he has the right to insure the debtor up
to the amount of the loan.
iv) Partners. The death of a partner could well cause financial loss to the
survivor(s), who therefore, have a right to insure him. This could arise
with a professional firm or perhaps with theatrical performers. The
amount of insurable interest would be difficult to ascertain, but legally
it is limited to the financial involvement in the person insured.
A father may insure the life of a minor child, but a brother may
not ordinarily insure the life of his sister. In the latter case there would
not usually be a financial loss to the brother upon the death of his
sister, but in the former case the father would suffer financial loss
upon the death of his child.
Property
58
belonging to others, for example, laundries, cobblers, and the like
have the right to insure for losses to goods in their custody
representing interest of the owner.
v) Agents. Provided the principal possesses an insurable interest, an
agent may effect an insurance on his behalf. The insurance must,
however, be authorized or ratified by the principal. A householder
may effect a policy, which extends to cover the belongings of
members of his family. Another example is with a private car
insurance, which normally extends to cover the liability of other
drivers using the vehicle with the insured’s permission.
vi) Mortgagees and Mortgagors. The interest of the mortgagee is limited
to the sum of money that he has advanced.
Liability
Insurance of liability seldom gives rise to any difficulty over the existence of
insurable interest. A person clearly has an interest in the sums he may be
called upon to pay to third parties as a result of accident.
On the other hand, in life insurance it is the general rule that insurable
interest must exist at the inception of the policy, but it is not necessary at the
time of the loss. The courts view life insurance as an investment contract. To
illustrate, assume that a wife who owns a life insurance policy on her
husband later obtains a divorce. If she continues to maintain the insurance by
paying the premiums, she may collect on the subsequent death of her former
husband, even though she is remarried and suffers no particular financial
loss upon his death. It is sufficient that she had an insurable interest when
the policy was first issued.
59
5.2. Principle of Indemnity
The principle of indemnity states that a person may not collect more than the
actual loss in the event of damage caused by an insured peril. Thus, while a
person may have purchased coverage in excess of the value of the property,
that person cannot make a profit by collecting more than the actual loss if
the property is destroyed. Many insurance practices result from this
important principle. Only contracts in property and liability insurance are
subject to this principle. Life and most health insurance policies are not
contracts of indemnity. No money payment can indemnify for loss of life or
for bodily injury to the insured, and that is why life insurance is an exception
to the general rule.
60
extent of the loss, and the cash payment is the measure of indemnity,
or extent of the insurer’s liability for any given loss.
ii) Repair. An adequate repair constitutes an indemnity. This form of
settlement is particularly common in motor insurance, where the
insurer settles the repair bill direct with the garage concerned.
iii) Replacement. It is sometimes advantageous for the insurer to replace
an article rather than to pay cash. With a very new item or with such
things as jewelry and furs, depreciation is likely to be negligible and
the insured may well be content with a new replacement, which might
possibly be acquired at a discount from the appropriate dealer. In glass
insurance, it is the usual rule to replace, and all insurers pride
themselves on the speed with which they replace shop windows so
that there is minimum disturbance of trade.
iv) Reinstatement. This is a term usually found in fire insurance and
concerns the restoration or rebuilding of premises (not necessarily on
the same site) to their former condition.
The insured who has been indemnified by the insurance company may
neglect to prosecute the wrongdoer where liability exists, or he might
prosecute in order to get double recovery. Double recovery would violate the
indemnity principle. By subrogation, the dilemma is resolved by assigning to
the insurance company the right to prosecute the action against the
wrongdoer and there by recoup a portion or all of the damages paid to the
insured. Such salvage by insurance companies helps to maintain lower rate
levels for insureds.
61
instance, if the death of a life insured should be caused by the negligence of
a third party, his legal personal representatives may be able to recover
damages in addition to the policy moneys. The insurers have no right of
action against the third party and cannot benefit by any damages received.
Representations
62
defeat to insurer’s rights to cancel at a later time, under the doctrines of
waiver (voluntary relinquishment of a known right) or estoppel (which
prevents a person from asserting a right because he has acted previously in
such a way as to deny any interest in that right).
Concealments
Warrantees
63
common law any breach of warranty, even if held to be minor, voids the
contract.
Contribution is the right of an insurer who has paid under a policy, to call
upon other insurers equally or otherwise liable for the same loss to
contribute to the payment. Where there is over-insurance because a loss is
covered by policies effected with two or more insurers, the principle of
indemnity still applies. In these circumstances, the insured will only be
entitled to recover the full amount of his loss and if one insurer has paid out
in full, he will be entitled to nothing more.
64
parties or elsewhere in respect of payment of an indemnity, and need not
involve any other insurance, although it frequently does. Contribution
necessarily involves more than one insurance each covering the interest of
the same insured.
Basis of Contribution
At the time of a claim, insurers usually inquire whether any other insurance
exists covering the loss. Where other insurances do exist and each policy is
subject to a valid claim, contribution will apply so that the respective
insurers share the loss ratably. This term allows two constructions, both of
which are found in insurance:
Example: Assume that Ato Kebede has inured his house, which is worth
80,000 birr against fire insurers X, Y, and Z for 60,000 birr, 40,000 birr, and
20,000 birr respectively. Ato Kebede’s house was completely destroyed by a
fire caused by Ato Alemu’s negligence. The amount of indemnity that Ato
Kebede will be entitled to receive would be 80,000 birr, the value of the
actual loss or the amount of insurance carried.
Br. 60,000
65
X’s share of the loss X Br. 80,000 = Br. 40,000
Br. 120,000
Br. 40,000
Y’s share of the loss X Br. 80,000 = Br. 26,667
Br. 120,000
Br. 20,000
Z’s share of the loss X Br. 80,000 = Br. 13,333
Br. 120,000
Total indemnity Br. 80,000
66
5.7. Events Covered Under Insurance Contracts
Most insurance contracts contain certain exclusions, such as for loss due to
war, loss to property of an extremely fragile character, and loss due to the
deliberate action of the named insured. Most property insurance contracts
require the insured to notify the insurer of loss as soon as practicable, and
usually require that the insured prove the loss.
Named Peril Versus All Risk. The named peril agreement, as the name
suggests, lists the perils that are proposed to be covered. Perils not named
are, of course, not covered. The other type, all risk, states that it is the
insurer’s intention to cover all risks of accidental loss to the described
property except those perils specifically excluded.
Defining the insured. All policies of insurance name at least one person
who is to receive the benefit of the coverage provided. That person is
referred to as the named insured. In life insurance he is often called the
policyholder.
Third party Coverage. Many insurance contracts may provide coverage on
individuals who are not direct parties to the contract. Such persons are
known as third parties.
In life insurance the beneficiary is a third party and has the right to
receive the death proceeds of the policy.
67
The beneficiary can be changed at any time by the insured, unless this
right has been formally given up-i.e., the insured has named the beneficiary
irrevocably. The beneficiary’s rights are thus contingent upon the death of
the insured.
68
CHAPTER SIX
Life Values
A human life has value for may reasons. Many of these reasons are
philosophical in nature, and would lead us into the realm of religion,
esthetics, sociology, psychology, and other behavioural sciences. Of greatest
interest here are economic values, although it is very difficult to separate the
discussion in such a way that an economic analysis would have no
implications or overtones for other viewpoints.
A human life has economic value to all who depend on the earning
capacity of that life, particularly to two central economic groups-the family
and the employer. To the family, the economic value of a human life is
probably most easily measured by the value of the earning capacity of each
of its members. To the employer, the economic value of human life is
measured by the contributions of an employee to the success of the business
firm. If one argues that in a free competitive society a worker is paid
according to worth and is not exploited, the worker’s contribution again is
best measured by earning capacity. It develops that earning capacity is
probably the only feasible method of giving measurable economic value to
human life.
There are four main perils that can destroy, wholly or partially, the
economic value of a human life. These include premature death, loss of
health, old age, and unemployment.
69
6.1. Life Insurance
Every person faces two basic contingencies concerning life; he may die too
soon, or he may live too long, to suit himself; it means that he may outlive
his financial usefulness or his ability to provide for his needs. The first
category is physical death. The second is economic death. A man, who is
forced to retire at 55 from his job, unless he has substitute income, is
financially dead. Economic death may also occur at early ages if the person
becomes too disabled or ill to work. Life insurance is designed to provide
protection against these two distinct risks premature death and
superannuation. Thus, life insurance may be defined as a social and
economic device by which a group of people may cooperate to ameliorate
(make better) the loss resulting from the premature death or living too long
of members of the group.
Life insurance is a risk pooling plan economic device through which the risk
of premature death or superannuation is transferred from the individual to
the group. However, the contingency insured against has certain
characteristics that make it peculiar, as a result, the contract insuring against
the contingency is different in many respects from other types of insurance.
70
liability insurance. When the individual taking out the policy is also the
insured, there is no legal problem concerning insurable interest. The
important question of insurable interest arises when the person taking out the
insurance is someone other than the person whose life is concerned. In such
cases, the law requires that an insurable interest exists at the time the
contract is taken out. There are many relationships, as stated earlier, that
provide the basis for an insurable interest.
Fourth, life insurance contracts are long-term contracts. Nearly all life
policies, are intended to continue until the insured’s death or at least for
several years. Other forms of insurance policies may be renewed many
times, but are usually twelve-month contracts, which may be terminated by
either party.
Not all people need exactly the same kind of protection from life insurance.
Their ages differ, their incomes and financial obligations differ, the number
of their dependents differ. To provide all the different types of protection that
are needed, insurance companies offer a variety of policies. The basic types
of contracts are:
1. Term insurance
2. Whole life insurance.
3. Endowment insurance, and
4. Annuities.
Term Insurance
Term insurance provides protection only for a definite period (term) of time.
A term insurance policy is a contract between the insured and the insurer
whereby the insurer promises to pay face amount of the policy to a third
party (the beneficiary) should the insured die within a given period of time.
If the insured does not die during the period for which the policy was taken,
the insurance company is not required to pay anything. Protection ends when
the term of years expires. In other words, term life insurance resembles
automobile insurance, fire insurance, and the like, which are always term
insurance. Term insurance is sometimes called temporary insurance.
71
Common types of term life insurance are 1-year term, 5-years term, 10-years
term, 20-years term, and term to age 60 or 65. There are different forms of
term insurance available to the potential purchaser, viz., straight term
insurance, renewable term insurance, and convertible term insurance.
Term insurance is suitable for insuring any need for protection, which
is not life-long duration, non continuing needs for insurance. For example, a
man with a mortgage that will take ten years to amortize can use term
insurance to provide insurance protection during the mortgage period.
Mortgage insurance protects homeowners frobgm losing their homes in case
the insured person dies before the mortgage is payed off.
72
Whole life insurance contracts may be placed in two categories,
depending upon the premium payment period:
1. Straight life insurance , and
2. Limited payment life insurance
Under straight life insurance, the premiums are payable for the remainder of
the insured’s lifetime. Under limited payment life insurance, the premiums
are payable for the remainder of the insured’s lifetime or until the expiration
of a specified period, if earlier. A limited-payment life policy is one
arranged so that the insured pays a higher premium than would be required
on the straight life contract. Thus a definite termination date can be
established beyond which no further payments are due. Limited installment
plans could be 20-payment life, 30 payment life, and life paid up at age 65.
Whole life insurance is the ideal form of insurance for a person with
dependent relatives, as substantial life cover is obtainable for the amount of
premium payable.
Endowment Insurance
73
Endowment insurance may be a useful way for some persons to
accumulate a specified sum over a stated period of time whether they live or
die. The objective may be funds to finance a child’s college education, to
pay living expenses during retirement, or to retire a debt.
Annuity Contracts
Third, annuities may cover one life or joint lives. If two or more lives
are covered, the payments may stop at the death of the first annuitant or at
the death of the last annuitant. An annuity may be issued on more than one
life. For example, the agreement might be to pay a given rent during the
lifetime of two individuals, as long as either shall live.
74
6.1.2. Life Insurance Premiums
The first two (that is, mortality and interest) are used to compute the net
premium. Most computations of rates in life insurance begin with the net
single premium and the net annual level premium, which measures only the
cost of claims and omits provisions for operating expenses. The net premium
plus an expense loading (which includes unit expense factor, profit factor,
etc) is the gross premium, which is the selling price of the contract and the
amount the insured pays.
Mortality
75
the death rate is slightly over 38 percent, since 384 per 1,000 are expected to
die during that year. At age 100 it is assumed that death is certainty. The
probability of death expressed in a mortality table is based on insured lives
and not the whole population.
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Table 6-1
Commissioners Standard Ordinary (CSO) Mortality Table (1980)
Male Female Male Female
Deaths Expectation Death Expectation Deaths Expectation Death Expectation
Per of life Per of Life Per of life Per of Life
Age 1,000 (Years) 1,000 (Years) 1,000 (Years) 1,000 (Years) Age
0 4.18 70.83 2.89 75.83 7.30 24.52 5.31 28.67 51
1 1.07 70.13 0.87 75.04 7.96 23.70 5.70 27.82 52
2 0.99 69.20 0.81 74.11 8.71 22.89 6.15 26.98 53
3 0.98 68.27 0.79 73.17 9.56 22.08 6.61 26.14 54
4 0.95 67.34 0.77 72.23 10.47 21.29 7.09 25.31 55
5 0.90 66.40 0.76 71.28 11.46 20.51 7.57 24.49 56
6 0.86 65.46 0.73 70.34 12.49 19.74 8.03 23.67 57
7 0.80 64.52 0.72 69.39 13.59 18.99 8.47 22.86 58
8 0.76 63.57 0.70 68.44 14.77 18.24 8.94 22.05 59
9 0.74 62.62 0.69 67.48 16.08 17.51 9.47 21.25 60
10 0.73 61.66 0.68 66.53 17.54 16.79 10.13 20.44 61
11 0.77 60.71 0.69 65.58 19.19 16.08 10.96 19.65 62
12 0.85 59.75 0.72 64.62 21.06 15.38 12.02 18.86 63
13 0.99 58.80 0.75 63.67 23.14 14.70 13.25 18.08 64
14 1.15 57.86 0.80 62.71 25.42 14.04 14.59 17.32 65
15 1.33 56.93 0.85 61.76 27.85 13.39 16.00 16.57 66
16 1.51 56.00 0.90 60.82 30.44 12.76 17.43 15.83 67
17 1.67 55.09 0.95 59.87 33.19 12.14 18.84 15.10 68
18 1.78 54.18 0.98 58.93 36.17 11.54 20.26 14.38 69
19 1.86 53.27 1.02 57.98 39.51 10.96 22.11 13.67 70
20 1.90 52.37 1.05 57.04 43.30 10.39 24.23 12.97 71
21 1.91 51.47 1.07 56.10 47.65 9.84 26.87 12.28 72
22 1.89 50.57 1.09 55.16 52.64 9.30 30.11 11.60 73
23 1.86 49.66 1.11 54.22 58.19 8.79 33.93 10.95 74
24 1.82 48.75 1.14 53.28 64.19 8.31 38.24 10.32 75
25 1.77 47.84 1.16 52.34 70.53 7.84 42.97 9.71 76
26 1.73 46.93 1.19 51.40 77.12 7.40 48.04 9.12 77
27 1.71 46.01 1.22 50.46 83.90 6.97 53.45 8.55 78
28 1.70 45.09 1.26 49.52 91.05 6.57 59.35 8.01 79
29 1.71 44.16 1.30 48.59 98.84 6.18 65.99 7.48 80
30 1.73 43.24 1.35 47.65 107.48 5.80 73.60 6.98 81
31 1.78 42.31 1.40 46.71 117.25 5.44 82.40 6.49 82
32 1.83 41.38 1.45 45.78 128.26 5.09 92.53 6.03 83
33 1.91 40.46 1.50 44.84 140.25 4.77 103.81 5.59 84
34 2.00 39.54 1.58 43.91 152.95 4.46 116.10 5.18 85
35 2.11 38.61 1.65 42.98 166.09 4.18 129.29 4.80 86
36 2.24 37.69 1.76 42.05 179.55 3.91 143.32 4.43 87
37 2.40 36.78 1.89 41.12 193.27 3.66 158.18 4.09 88
38 2.58 35.87 2.04 40.20 207.29 3.41 173.94 3.77 89
39 2.79 34.96 2.22 39.28 221.77 3.18 190.75 3.45 90
40 3.02 34.05 2.42 38.36 236.98 2.94 208.87 3.15 91
41 3.29 33.16 2.64 37.46 253.45 2.70 228.81 2.85 92
42 3.56 32.26 2.87 36.55 272.11 2.44 251.51 2.55 93
43 3.87 31.38 3.09 35.66 295.90 2.17 279.31 2.24 94
44 4.19 30.50 3.32 34.77 329.96 1.87 317.32 1.91 95
45 4.55 29.62 3.56 33.88 384.55 1.54 375.74 1.56 96
46 4.92 28.76 3.80 33.00 480.20 1.20 474.97 1.21 97
47 5.32 27.90 4.05 32.12 657.98 0.84 655.85 0.84 98
48 5.74 27.04 4.33 31.25 1,000.00 0.50 1,000.00 0.50 99
49 6.21 26.20 4.63 30.39
50 6.71 25.36 4.96 29.53
77
Interest
Since the insurance company collects the premium in advance and does not
pay claims until the future date, it has the use of the insured’s money for
some time, and it must be prepared to pay interest on it. The life insurance
companies collect vast sums of money, and since their obligations will not
mature until some time in the future, they invest this money and earn interest
on it.
78
Table 6-2
Present Value of Br. 1.00 1
(1 + 1 ) n
Periods
0 .03(3%) .06(6%) .07(7%) .08(8%) .10(10
%)
1 0.9708 7379 0.9433 9623 0.9345 7944 0.9259 2593 0.9090 9091
2 0.9425 9591 0.8899 9644 0.8734 3873 0.8573 3882 0.8264 4628
3 0.9151 4166 0.8396 1928 0.8162 9788 0.7938 3224 0.7513 1480
4 0.8884 8705 0.7920 9366 0.7628 9521 0.7350 2985 0.6830 1345
5 0.8626 0878 0.7472 5817 0.7129 8618 0.6805 8320 0.6209 2132
6 0.8374 8426 0.7049 6054 0.6663 4222 0.6301 6963 0.5644 7393
7 0.8130 9151 0.6650 5711 0.6227 4974 0.5834 9040 0.5131 5812
8 0.7894 0923 0.6274 1237 0.5820 0910 0.5402 6888 0.4665 0738
9 0.7664 1673 0.5918 9846 0.5439 3374 0.5002 4897 0.4240 9762
10 0.7440 9391 0.5583 9478 0.5083 4929 0.4631 9349 0.3855 4329
11 0.7224 2128 0.5267 8753 0.4750 9280 0.4288 8286 0.3504 9390
12 0.7013 7988 0.4969 6936 0.4440 1196 0.3971 1376 0.3186 3082
13 0.6809 5134 0.4688 3902 0.4149 6445 0.3676 9792 0.2896 6438
14 0.6611 1781 0.4423 0096 0.3878 1724 0.3404 6104 0.2633 3125
15 0.6418 6195 0.4172 6506 0.3624 4602 0.3152 4170 0.2393 9205
16 0.6231 6694 0.3936 4628 0.3387 3460 0.2918 9047 0.2176 2914
17 0.6050 1645 0.3713 6442 0.3165 7439 0.2702 6895 0.1978 4467
18 0.5873 9461 0.3503 4379 0.2958 6392 0.2502 4903 0.1798 5879
19 0.5702 8603 0.3305 1301 0.2765 0833 0.2317 1206 0.1635 0799
20 0.5536 7575 0.3118 0473 0.2584 1900 0.2145 4821 0.1486 4363
21 0.5375 4928 0.2941 5540 0.2415 1309 0.1986 5575 0.1351 3057
22 0.5218 9250 0.2775 0510 0.2257 1317 0.1839 4051 0.1228 4597
23 0.5066 9175 0.2617 9726 0.2109 4688 0.1703 1528 0.1116 7816
24 0.4919 3374 0.2469 7855 0.1971 4662 0.1576 9934 0.1015 2560
25 0.4776 0557 0.2329 9863 0.1842 4918 0.1460 1790 0.0922 9600
26 0.4636 9473 0.2198 1003 0.1721 9549 0.1352 0176 0.0839 0545
27 0.4501 8906 0.2073 6795 0.1609 3037 0.1251 8682 0.0762 7768
28 0.4370 7675 0.1956 3014 0.1504 0221 0.1159 1372 0.0693 4335
29 0.4243 4636 0.1845 5674 0.1405 6282 0.1073 2752 0.0630 3941
30 0.4119 8676 0.1741 1013 0.1313 6712 0.0993 7733 0.0573 0855
31 0.3999 8715 0.1642 5484 0.1227 7301 0.0920 1605 0.0520 9868
32 0.3883 3703 0.1549 5740 0.1147 4113 0.0852 0005 0.0473 6244
33 0.3770 2625 0.1461 8622 0.1072 3470 0.0788 8893 0.0430 5676
34 0.3660 4490 0.1379 1153 0.1002 1934 0.0730 4531 0.0391 4251
35 0.3553 8340 0.1301 0522 0.0936 6294 0.0676 3454 0.0355 8410
36 0.3450 3243 0.1227 4077 0.0875 3546 0.0626 2458 0.0323 4918
37 0.3349 8294 0.1157 9318 0.0818 0884 0.0579 8572 0.0294 0835
38 0.3252 2615 0.1092 3885 0.0764 5686 0.0536 9048 0.0267 3486
39 0.3157 5355 0.1030 5552 0.0714 5501 0.0497 1341 0.0243 0442
40 0.3065 5684 0.0972 2219 0.0667 8038 0.0460 3093 0.0220 9493
41 0.2976 2800 0.0917 1904 0.0624 1157 0.0426 2123 0.0200 8630
42 0.2889 5922 0.0865 2740 0.0583 2857 0.0394 6411 0.0182 6027
43 0.2805 4294 0.0816 2962 0.0545 1268 0.0365 4084 0.0166 0025
44 0.2723 7178 0.0770 0908 0.0509 4643 0.0338 3411 0.0150 9113
45 0.2644 3862 0.0726 5007 0.0476 1349 0.0313 2788 0.0137 1921
46 0.2567 3653 0.0685 3781 0.0444 9859 0.0290 0730 0.0124 7201
47 0.2492 5876 0.0646 5831 0.0415 8746 0.0268 5861 0.0113 3819
48 0.2419 9880 0.0609 9840 0.0388 6679 0.0248 6908 0.0103 0745
49 0.2349 5029 0.0575 4566 0.0368 2410 0.0230 2693 0.0093 7041
50 0.2281 0708 0.0542 8836 0.0339 4776 0.0213 2123 0.0085 1855
79
80
Net Single Premium
The net single premium is the amount the insurer must collect in advance to
meet all the claims arising during the policy period. To illustrate the general
method of calculating the net single premium, we will assume that a given
insurer wishes to determine the premium for a one-year term insurance
contract with a face amount of birr 1,000 for a group of intrants, age 20.
Reference to the CSO 1980 table of mortality reveals that the probability of
death at age 20 for a male is 0.0019. This means that out of 100,000 men
living at the beginning of the year, 190 will die during the year. The rate-
maker in life insurance makes two assumptions in calculating the necessary
premium:
81
The formula for net single premium is:
Face value Mortality Discount
of policy X rate X factor
Assume that the actuary must calculate the net single premium for Br.
1,000 one-year term insurance policy for a 35-year-old male at 3% interest
assumption and the C.S.O.1980 Table.
The net single premium for a birr 1,000 policy issued to 100,000
entrants at age 20, say, three years is calculated in a similar manner, except
that the calculation is carried out over a three year period instead of one.
The following table illustrates the method.
It will be observed that each person must pay inadvance the sum of Br. 5.37
for three years of protection.
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Alternatively the net single premium payable by an individual entrant
for Br. 1,000 policy of 3 years term could also be computed using the
following formula.
Face value of Mortality Discount
NSP = policy X rate X factor
1) Br. 1,000 X 0.0019 X 0.9708 = 1.8445
2) “ 1,000 X 0.00191 X 0.9425 = 1.8001
3) “ 1,000 X 0.00189 X 0.9151 = 1.7295
5.3741
Net Level Premium
Actuaries find the net level premium (NLP) by dividing the net single
premium (NSP) by an amount known as the present value of an annuity due
(PVAD).
NSP
NLP =
PVAD
The present value of an annuity due of Br. 1 a year for three years is
the present value of a series of payments of Br. 1 each year, the first payment
due immediately, adjusted for the probability of survival each year.
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The PVAD of Br. 1 a year for three years can also be calculated in the
following manner.
PVAD = Payments of X Discount X Survival
Each year Factor Rate
This process is continued, and we find that the present value of the
promise is Br.2.91. If the sum is divided into the present value of the total
death claims (i.e., the net single premium), the insurer knows how much
must be collected annually from a specified group of insureds in order to
have a sum that will enable the insurer to pay all obligations. The net level
premium for the three-year term policy is, thus,
Br.5.3741
= Br. 1.85
Br. 2.91
Gross Premium
Gross premium is the pure premium plus loading for the necessary expenses
of the insurer. The net level premium for life insurance represents the pure
premium that is unadjusted for the expenses of doing business. The pure
premium is actually the contribution that each insured makes to the
aggregate insurance fund each year for the payment of both death and living
benefits.
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6.2. Health Insurance
There are two types of insurance in the generic term health insurance:
1) Disability income insurance, and
2) Medical expense insurance.
The disability must be one that prevents the insured from carrying on
the usual occupation. Most policies continue payment of the benefits for
only a specified maximum number of years, but lifetime benefits are
available on some contracts. However, under all loss of income policies, the
benefits are terminated as soon as the disability ends.
Medical expense insurance provides for the payment of the cost of medical
care that result from sickness and injury. Its benefits help meet the expenses
of physicians, hospital, nursing and related services, as well as medications
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and supplies. Benefits may be in the form of reimbursement of actual
expenses, up to a limit, cash payments or the direct provision of services.
The medical expenses may be paid directly to the provider of the services or
the insured.
Medical expense insurance is divided into four major classes:
1) Hospitalization expense contract
2) Surgical expense contract
3) Regular medical expense contract
4) Major medical expense contract
The agreement may set birr allowance for the different items or may
be on a service basis. Typical contracts offered by insurance companies, for
example, may state that the insured will be indemnified up to “X birr per
day” for necessary hospitalization.
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Surgical Contract: - The surgical contract provides set allowances for
different surgical procedures performed by duly licensed physicians. In
general, a schedule of operations is set forth together with the maximum
allowance for each operation. It reimburses the policyholder according to a
schedule that lists the amounts the policy will pay for a variety of operations.
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CHAPTER SEVEN
Property and liability insurance consists of those forms of insurance that are
designed to provide protection against losses resulting from damage to or
loss of property and losses resulting from legal liability.
Property may be exposed to a wide range of perils – fire, theft, perils of the
sea, and damage by persons (whether accidental or carelessness).
Fire insurance is designed to indemnify the insured for loss of, or damage to,
buildings ad personal property by fire, lighting, windstorm, hail, explosion,
and a vast array of other perils. Coverage may be provided for both the
direct loss (that is the actual loss represented by the destruction of the asset),
and indirect loss (defined as the loss of income and/or extra expenses caused
by the loss of use of the asset protected). Originally, only fire was an insured
peril, but the number of perils insured against has gradually been expended.
Insurers, however, may offer protection against a very great number of perils
other than fire and lightning by extending the contract in relation to the
interest of the insured through additional premium payment. For additional
premium, the standard fire policy may be extended to cover any of the
following perils: windstorm, explosion, damage by aircraft, damage by
vehicle, flood, earthquake fire and shock, bursting of pipes and water
damage, etc.
Not all fires are covered under the fire insurance contract, but the exclusions
are few:
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1. fires caused by war
2. fires intentionally set by public authorities, and
3. fires set intentionally by the insured.
Policy Format
Most of the first page of the standard fire policy is a declarations section in
which is printed such information as the insurerd's name and address, the
policy inception and expiration dates, the description and location of the
property covered, the perils insured against, the amount of insurance
applicable to each peril, and the code numbers of the forms and
endorsements that are attached. The standard fire policy plus the descriptive
form may be modified by one of more other forms or endorsements. These
other forms may add, for example, business interruption insurance or extra
expense insurance. Endorsements may increase or decrease the coverage.
For example, they may add additional perils or exclude some parts of a
covered building, such as the foundations.
The first page also contains a brief insuring agreement that states the
insurer’s basic promise. The second page describes such matters, as perils
not included, uninsurable and excepted, property, cancellation, and
requirements in case a loss occurs.
Types of Policies
There are different types of fire policies, some of the important policies
include the following:
1. Valued Policy: This is a policy where the value of the property to be
insured against fire and allied perils is determined at the time the policy
is issued. Under valued policy also referred to as “ordinary fire
insurance policy,” the insurer pays the total value of damaged property
irrespective of the market value of the property at the time of destruction
or loss.
2. Valuable (Automatic Reporting) policy: Under this policy the indemnity
to be paid by the insurer is to be determined at the time of the loss or
after the loss has taken place. This policy is often used for properties
where their value cannot be accurately determined at the inception of the
contract, example, a building in process.
3. Floating Policy: Under this policy the insurer covers the interest of the
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insured on assets in different locations. Comprehensive Policy: This form
of fire insurance policy gives full protection, not only against the risk of
fire but all related perils such as riot; theft; damage by vehicles, animals
or articles from the air, including aircraft and the like.
Rating
The rate of any given policy of protection varies in relation to the nature of
the property, location, type of perils insured against, the actual cash value of
the property, duration of the policy, and other similar factors that will have a
bearing impact on the risk to be assumed by the insurer. In general, after
consideration of such factors, fire insurance basic rates are expressed in
terms of cents per 100 birr value for a base of one year. In other words the
rules of percentages is used in the computation of the premium rates.
To illustrate, assume that a property valued at 80,000 birr was insured at 60¢
per one hundred for a protection of one year, the premium required can be
computed as follows:
Value of the property
Premium = X Protection rate
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Birr 80,000
= X 0.60
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Once the premium for one year is determined, it can be extended for any
number of years as required by multiplying the annual rate and the long-term
rate that can be determined by the company as in case of the mortality rate
for different stages of age. To illustrate let us assume that the long-term
rates for a given insurer are determined as follows:
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Further, if we assume that there is an insured who wants to have an
insurance policy for his 20,000 birr worth at the annual rate of 25¢ per one
hundred birr value, we can determine the premium required for one year or
three years policy as follows:
Br. 20,000
Premium for one year = X 0.25 = Br. 50
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Settlement of Losses
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Example: An apartment building was insured under the following: with
insurer ‘A’ for Br. 50,000 and with insurer ‘B’ for Br. 30,000.
Assuming a loss of Br. 32,000 has occurred, the two insurers
would contribute to the loss as follows:
A = Br. 50,000 X Br. 32,000 = Br. 20,000
Br. 80,000
Br. 100,000
X loss
0.80(Br. 200,000)
= 5/8 X loss
If the loss were Br. 80,000 the insurer would pay Br. 50,000.
If the loss were Br. 170,000, the insurer would pay Br. 100,000, the
amount of insurance. The answer will always be the amount of
insurance when the loss exceeds the required insurance.
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The term coinsurance has different meanings in insurance. In health
insurance the coinsurance clause is simply a straight, deductible, expressed
as a percentage. Its purpose in health is to make the insured bear a given
proportion, say 20%, of every loss, because it has been found through
experience that without such a control, the charges for doctors and other
medical services tend to be greatly enlarged, thus increasing the premium to
a prohibitive level. The insured that must personally bear a substantial share
of the loss is less inclined to be extravagant in this regard.
Marine insurance is divided into two classes: ocean marine and inland
marine.
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Ocean Marine Insurance
If a peril of the sea causes the sinking of a ship in deep water, one or more of
these losses can result. However, each of these potential losses can be
covered under various insurance policies.
Hull Policies
Policies covering the vessel itself or hull insurance are written in several
different ways. The policy may cover the ship only during a given period of
time, usually not to exceed one year. The insurance is commonly subject to
geographical limits. If the ship is laid up in port for an extended period of
time, the contract may be written at a reduced premium under the condition
that the ships remain in port. The contract may cover a builder’s risk while
the vessel is constructed.
Cargo Policies
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either party may cancel upon giving 30 days’ written notice to the other;
otherwise the insurance is continuous. All shipments, both incoming and
outgoing, are automatically covered. The shipper reports to the insurer at
regular intervals as to the values shipped or received during the previous
period.
Cargo policies written on a voyage basis cover that single voyage, but
open policies usually cover all shipments made on and after a certain date. If
an open policy is cancelled, the coverage continues on shipments made prior
to the cancellation date.
Freight Coverage
The money paid for the transportation of the goods, known as freight, is an
insurable interest because in the event that freight charges are not paid,
someone has lost income with which to reimburse expenses incurred in
preparation for a voyage. The earning of freight by the hull owner is
dependent on the delivery of cargo unless this is altered by contractual
agreements between the parties. If a ship sinks, the freight is lost and the
vessel owner loses the expenses incurred plus the expected profit on the
venture. The carrier’s right to earn freight may be defeated by the occurrence
of losses due to perils ordinarily insured against in an ocean marine
insurance policy. The hull may be damaged so that it is uneconomical to
complete the voyage, or the cargo may be destroyed, in which case, of
course, it cannot be delivered. Also the owner of cargo has an interest in
freight arising from the obligation to pay transportation charges. Freight
insurance is normally made a part of the regular hull or cargo coverage
instead of being written as a separate contract.
In ocean marine insurance policies the hull owner is protected against third –
party liability claims that arise from collisions. Collision loss to the hull
itself is included in the peril clause as one of the perils of the sea. The
liability insurance is intended to give protection in case the ship owner is
held liable for negligent operation of the vessel which is the proximate cause
of damage to certain property of others. The vessel owner or agent of that
owner who fails to exercise the proper degree of care in the operation of the
ship may be legally liable for damage to the other ship and for loss of freight
revenues.
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Loss Settlement
If the cargo is totally destroyed, the insurer must pay the face value of the
policy. If the cargo is only partially damaged the insured and the insurer
must agree on the percentage of damage. If they cannot agree, the damaged
cargo is to be sold for the account of the owner and the amount received
compared, with what would have been received had the cargo been in sound
condition. In either case, the liability of the insurer is determined by
applying the percentage of damage to the amount of insurance.
For example, assume that a cargo insured for 4,000 birr could have been sold
for 6,000 birr in sound condition but are worth only 4,500 birr in damaged
condition. Since, the damage is 25 percent, the insurer must be pay 25
percent of 4,000 birr. Note that if the amount of insurance is less than the
value of the cargo in sound condition, the amount of the insurance payment
is equal to the amount under a 100 percent coinsurance clause.
No one cargo insurance contract exists. Instead, different insurers may issue
different contracts, and a given insurer will tailor the contract to the
insured’s needs. A convenient way to classify the contracts is according to
the type of transportation covered. One or more of the following modes of
transportation may be covered-railroad, motor truck, or air. Shipments by
mail are covered under separate first- class mail, parcel port, or registered
mil insurance.
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Cashiers and others who handle money, and other persons employed
in positions of trust, are frequently required by their employers to provide
security as protection against their personal dishonesty usually in the form of
fidelity guarantee policy. The policy indemnifies the employer against losses
from the dishonesty of his employees. The employer himself often takes out
the policy. He may insure a number of employees either individually or in a
group basis under a variety of policies.
In addition, before accepting the risk the insurer considers employer’s type
of establishment, methods of selecting employees, working conditions,
emoluments and benefits in relation to the responsibility assigned,
supervision and control measures effectiveness.
Although theft is generally one of the perils covered under an all risks
policy, the contract usually excludes or limits the amount of protection on
certain types of property, such as money, that is highly susceptible to theft
losses.
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premises closed for business, entry to which has been obtained by force.
There must be visible marks of the forcible entry. Thus, if a customer hides
in a store until after closing hours, or enters by an unlocked door, steals
some goods, and leaves without having to force a door or a window, the
definition of burglary is not met under a burglary policy.
According to the EIC burglary policy it does not cover losses or theft
committed by:
1) Members of the insured’s household,
2) The insured himself or his assignee,
3) Theft connected with war (declared or undeclared) or any kind
of population uprising, or
4) Theft of valuables including documents and works of art unless
agreed pre hand. In addition, failure to disclose material facts at
the time of writing the policy will also make any theft claims
null and void.
Most automobile insurance contracts are schedule contracts that permit the
insured to purchase both property and liability insurance under one policy.
The contract can be divided, however, into two separate contracts one
providing insurance against physical damage to automobiles and the other
protecting against potential liability arising out of the ownership or use of an
automobile.
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The object of automobile insurance is to indemnify the insured against
accidental loss or damage to his auto and/or his liability at law for bodily
injury or material damage caused by the use of the motor vehicle, subject to
the terms and conditions and to the cover granted.
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- Third party, fire and theft
- Third party and fire
- Third party and theft.
The basic cover guaranteed by the Ethiopian Insurance
Corporation’s policies can be extended to cover additional risks
at an additional premium.
Classification of Risks
Types of Policies
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Aircraft Comprehensive Policy:- This policy covers against three type’s of
potential losses:
a) Accidental damage to the aircraft, where protection is provided
for damage to the aircraft by accidents except those that are
specifically excluded on the policy;
b) Third party legal liability, where the insurer assumes the
responsibility to indemnify the insured for death of or bodily
injuries to, third parties (excluding passengers) and ground
damage;
c) Legal liability of the insured in respect of death of, or bodily
injuries to, passengers. Passengers’ baggage and personal
effects, which are registered, are also covered by the insurance.
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The insurance which provided protection for injuries to employees
while at work, and a s a result make the employer liable for the loss, is called
workers’ compensation insurance.
The policy provides compensation for legal liability for death, injury,
or disease to people other than employees (which should be covered by
employers’ liability policy). Public liability insurance provides what is
popularly termed “third party cover”. It indemnifies the insured in respect of
his legal liability for accidents to members of the public, or for damage to
their property, occurring in circumstances set out in the policy.
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It should be noted that this form of cover might include or be included
with other risks. For example, a householder’s policy covering loss or
damage to the building an/or contents can be extended to cover the personal
liability of the owner and his family towards the public. Whereas liability
arising from the use of motor vehicles is always exclude, and must be
covered by a separate motor policy.
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CHAPTER EIGHT
REINSURANCE
There are many risks in all classes of business which are too great for one
insurer to bear solely on his won account. Reinsurance is a method created
to divide the task of handling risk among several insurers. Naturally, the
insuring public wishes to effect cover with one insurer and the insurer who
in these circumstances accepts a risk greater than he considers it prudent to
bear, reinsures all or part of the risk with other direct insurers or with
companies which transact reinsurance business only.
There are two main methods in which risks can be shared: facultative
reinsurance and automatic treaty.
Facultative Reinsurance
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particular contract. Each risk, which is offered, is described and this is
shown to the prospective re-insurers who are free to accept or decline as they
see fit. A life insurer, for example, may receive an application for birr 1
million of life insurance on a single life. Not wishing to reject this business,
but still unwilling to accept the entire risk, the primary insurer
communicates full details on this application to another insurer with whom it
has done business in the past. The other insurer may agree to assume 40%
of any loss for a corresponding percentage of the premium. The primary
insurer then puts the contract in force.
The reinsurance agreement does not affect the insured in any way.
The insured is generally not aware of the reinsurance process and the
primary insurer remains fully liable to the insured in event of loss.
As stated earlier the insurer retains the right to decide whether and
how much of his risk to submit for reinsurance. The re-insurer also retains
the right to accept or reject any business offered by the insurer.
Automatic Treaty
Forms of Reinsurance
Quota Share Reinsurance: by this method the direct office arranges with re-
insurers to cede a fixed proportion of all its business of a certain class and
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the re-insurer accepts that proportion in return for a corresponding
proportion of the premiums. Under a quota share split, the insurance and the
loss are shared according to some pre-agreed percentage. For example, if a
100,000 birr policy is written and the agreed split is 50-50, the re-insurer
assumes one-half of the liability; the insurer and the re-insurer each pays
one-half on any loss.
For example, if the agreement calls for cession of up to “ten lines” and
the direct office retains 25,000 birr, then ten times this amount can be ceded
to the re-insurer, i.e., 250,000 birr: in this way sums insured up to 275,000
birr can be accepted by the direct insurer knowing that he automatically has
the reinsurance he requires. It is of course not necessary (or possible) to fill
the whole capacity of the reinsurance treaty on each individual acceptance:
sometimes the acceptance will be entirely within the direct insurer’s
retention and the treaty will not be interested at all, and on other occasional
the treaty underwriters will only be ceded a limited amount which they
divide equally between them.
Using the earlier example of a ten line reinsurance treaty the position
of the treaty (reinsures) in different circumstances would be as follows:
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Original sum Direct insurer’s Ceded to Proportion to
insured retention treaty (reinsure) treaty (reinsure)
Br. 25,000 Br. 25,000 Nil Nil
50,000 25,000 Br. 25,000 50%
100,000 25,000 75,000 75%
275,000 25,000 250,000 90.9%
300,000 25,000 250,000* 83.3%
*The balance of 25,000 would have to be reinsured facultative of under a
second reinsurance treaty.
For example, the primary insurer may be prepared to pay up to 50,000 birr
any one loss, and he secures reinsurance for the excess of 50,000 birr up to a
further 200,000 the way in which various losses are divided is shown below:
*I.e., its original retention of birr 50,000 plus a further birr 50,000 in excess
of the treaty’s (reinsurer’s) liability.
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8.2. Government Regulation of Insurance
Government has laid down rules governing the conduct of business, and
insurance is no exception.
Third, insurance costs are unknown at the time the premium is agreed upon,
and there exists a temptation for unregulated insurers to charge too little or
too much. Charging too little results in the long run in removing the very
security the insured thought was being purchased; changing too much results
in unwarranted profits to the insurer.
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The Ethiopian Insurance Corporation is the sole entity, which is
responsible for all affairs and practices of the insurance industry in the
country. The general objectives and function of the corporation being to:
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REFERENCE BOOKS
1. Greene, Mark R. & James Treschmann, Risk & Insurance, 6th ed. Cincinnati;
South - Western Publishing Co. 1984.
2. Williams, C. Arthur, Jr. and Heins, M. Richard, Risk Management and Insurance,
5th ed. New York, McGraw - Hill Book Co.1985.
3. George E. Redja, Principles of Risk Management & Insurance, Harper Collins
College Publishers, 1995.
4. C. Arthur Williams, Jr., Michael L. Smith, and Peter C. Young 8th ed., Irwin
McGraw-Hill, 1998.
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CONTENTS PAGE
CHAPTER ………………………………………………………… 1
INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………… 1
1.1 Risk Defined………………………………………. 1
1.2 Risk Versus Probability ………………………….. 2
1.3 Risk Versus Uncertainty …………………………. 2
1.4 Risk, Peril, and Hazard …………………………… 3
1.5 Classification of Risk …………………………….. 4
1.5.1. Financial Versus Non-financial Risks …. …... 4
PART - II INSURANCE 53
111
4.2 Requisites of insurable Risk ……………………. 56
4.3 Benefits and costs of Insurance …………….…… 58
4.4 Functions and organization of Insurance ……….. 62
112
REFERENCE BOOKS …………………………………………… 123
REFERENCE BOOKS
5. Greene, Mark R. & James Treschmann, Risk & Insurance, 6th ed. Cincinnati;
South - Western Publishing Co. 1984.
6. Williams, C. Arthur, Jr. and Heins, M. Richard, Risk Management and Insurance,
5th ed. New York, McGraw - Hill Book Co.1985.
7. George E. Redja, Principles of Risk Management & Insurance, Harper Collins
College Publishers, 1995.
8. C. Arthur Williams, Jr., Michael L. Smith, and Peter C. Young 8th ed., Irwin
McGraw-Hill, 1998.
113
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