Lab Exercise 2 – PROBABILITY

A. INTRODUCTION
Fundamental processes governing the inheritance of traits such as the assortment of non-
homologous chromosomes during meiosis, and the combination of gametes during
fertilization are ruled by chance. Consequently, in a cross wherein the progeny (offsprings),
may exhibit two or more alternative phenotypes, one can not exactly predict the frequency
of each of the possible phenotypes. What can be done is to determine the probability that a
particular phenotype will occur based on the proposed or assumed mode of inheritance of
the trait.
In probability that an event will occur can be defined as the proportion of times in
which that event occurs in a very large number of trials or in an infinitely large sample. If
there are N trials and an event occurs X times in these n trials, the probability of the event
can be expressed as X/N; as a fraction between zero and one, or as a percentage between
zero and 100. The closer the probability is to zero, the less probable is the event, and at zero
the event is presumably impossible. On the other hand, if the probability is one or 100%.
The event is considered, the event is considered certain. For instance, in a random survey
of blood types of Eskimos, Greenland, 83% were found to have blood type MM (found also
blood type among humans). The probability of findings a type MM individual in that
population is, therefore, 83%.
If a sample is to be taken from defined set N of equally likely outcomes, and if
exactly n of these outcome correspond to event X, then the probability of event X can be
calculated as the ratio of n to the total number of possible outcomes or n/N. For example, if a
balanced coin is tossed, the probability of obtaining a head is ½ and that of a tail is also ½.
Based on those probabilities, the predicted ratio of heads to tails in any sample is, therefore,
1:1. Is it possible that the different outcomes of an experiment are not equally likely. In that
case, the relative weights of the different outcomes can be estimated by making a large
number of trials of the experiment and recording the outcomes.For example, if a coin is
unbalanced such that heads are twice are likely to occur as tails, the probability of
obtaining a head in a toss of the coin is 2/3, not ½.
Once the probability of an event is determined, its expected frequency (E) in a
sample can be calculated using the following formula:
E= probability of an event x total sample.
For example, if 10 tosses of a balanced coin are made, one expects to obtain ½ ot 5
heads , and also ½ x 10 or 5 tails. Usually, however, expected frequencies are not obtained.
If the probability of an event is not 100%, the observed frequencies may deviate from the
expected frequencies because of the effect of chance during the sampling process. Although
one expects 5 heads in 10 tosses of a balanced coin, it is possible the frequency of 0 or 10, or
a number between 0 and 10, will be obtained. In this exercise, you may learn that the
magnitude of the deviation of the observed frequencies is influenced by the sample size.
It is often convenient to calculate the probability of an event from known probabilities of
their event.

B. Learning Objectives
At the end of the exercise, the student should be able to:
1. Understand how chance can affect the observed frequency of an event.
2. Understand how sample size can affect the magnitude of the deviation
3. Explain and use certain probability rules.
C. Materials:
- COINS
D. Procedure
TOSSING FOR 10 TIMES:
a) One coin each for tossing
b) Two coins each for tossing
Exercise 2.

Worksheet 2.1

Table 2.1 Results of Sets of 10 Tossing (ONE COIN)

A (head) B (tail)

Set No. O (observed) E(expected) %D (deviation) O E %D

1 4 ____ _____ 6 _____ _____

2 5 ____ _____ 5 _____ _____

3 3 ____ _____ 7 ______ _____

4 4 ____ _____ 6 ______ _____

5 6 ____ _____ 4 ______ _____

6 2 ____ _____ 8 ______ _____

7 9 ____ _____ 1 ______ _____

8 5 ____ _____ 5 ______ _____

9 5 ____ _____ 5 ______ _____

10 4 ____ _____ 6 ______ _____

Total: _____ ______ _____ ______ ______ _____

MEAN: ______ _____ ______ _____ ______ _____

Table 2.2 Results of Sets of 10 tOSSING (TWO COINS)

AA AB BB

Set No. O E %D O E %D O E %D

1 2 ____ ____ 6 ____ ____ 2 _____ _____

2 3 ____ ____ 4 ____ ____ 3 _____ _____

3 3 ____ ____ 3 ____ ____ 4 _____ _____

4 2 ___ ____ 6 ____ ____ 2 _____ _____

5 3 ____ ____ 4 ____ ____ 3 _____ _____

6 2 _____ ____ 6 ____ ____ 2 _____ _____

7 3 _____ ____ 4 ____ ____ 3 _____ _____

8 2 _____ ____ 6 ____ ____ 2 _____ _____

9 3 ____ ____ 3 ____ ____ 4 _____ _____

10 2 ____ ____ 6 ____ ____ 2 _____ _____

Total:

MEAN
STUDY GUIDE:

1. What do you mean by a matter of chance in genetics? How about in our laboratory data
above, what does it mean?
2. What is the definition of probability?
3. Explain genetics probability.
4. In genetics probability, use of genotypes (alleles), make use of Punnette square. SHOW.
5. In your lab exercise, what is the probability of a head and a tail using two coins (AA,
AB,BB) . Apply
6. Assume, apply genetics probability, using normal (N) and albino (n) skin. what is the
probability with both father and mother heterozygous for normal skin? Show Punnette
square.